New Patron Show: BB Mailbag

Summary

RHAP: We Know Big Brother — BB28 Week 1 Mailbag (July 15, 2026)

Hosts: Rob Cesternino & Taran Armstrong
Main Theme: Introducing the BB28 Mailbag — In-depth analysis, fan questions, and a new "win equity" exercise to gauge each houseguest’s chances to win, plus discussion on returnees and early gameplay strategies.

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Episode Overview

The premiere mailbag episode kicks off a new weekly tradition: answering listener questions and taking a step back to analyze the "big picture" of the season, rather than just the shifting daily alliances and competition outcomes. The core of this episode is the introduction of a "win share" (win equity) exercise—a Sabermetrics-inspired breakdown quantifying each player’s chances of winning at this very early stage.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why a BB Mailbag? (01:09–03:13)

• Rob explains the move from a Friday live call-in show to a focused mailbag: to “get into the weeds a little bit more and do a tighter show” looking at larger, season-wide trends rather than the daily tick-tock of feeds and competitions.

2. Adapting "Win Share" to Big Brother (03:13–07:07)

• Rob introduces the concept inspired by sports analytics—tracking each player’s “percentage chance to win,” updating as the season unfolds.
• Taran notes Big Brother is ideal for this approach since the game is live and unedited for the audience, allowing analysis without the bias of a narrative edit.

Notable Quote:

“Big Brother, very different animal… might look very different to try to do this type of exercise.”
—Rob Cesternino, 05:23

3. The Player-by-Player Win Equity Breakdown (07:07–39:35)

Method:

• Rob averaged his estimates with Brandon Donlon’s; Taran reviewed, adjusted, and justified each one.
• Focus is on long-term prospects, not just week-to-week performance.

Approach:

• Players reviewed alphabetically.
• Each receives a percentage chance to win; hosts debate, adjust, and sometimes split hairs over tenths of a percent.

Highlights and Memorable Exchanges:

• Angela (8%):
  Above average; decent relationships and “one of the people in the better position here” (08:00).
  “I think eight probably makes some sense. I don’t think she’s super high above average.” —Taran, 09:08

• Ashley (3.5% → 2.2%):
  On the block, in a rough position; “not doing enough to avoid the block in the first place.” —Taran, 10:37
  “Ashley and Steve are two of the only people who have ever won after being first week nominees.” —Taran, 10:37

• Barrett (10% → 9%):
  Good spot, needs to prove comp ability; “if he proves himself good at competitions, I’ll be higher” —Taran, 13:02

• D (17% → 12%):
  Initial highest estimate; Taran dials back: “I wish I could trust Devins to choose her over Drew… I think she [is] most likely to get into a crushing spot, but I’m not quite sure she’s 100% there yet.” (15:56)

• Drew (8.5%):
  In position but “getting Matt vibes from the Brigade” (17:59); might be expendable to his own alliance.

• Haley (2% → 3.7%):
  Rough week, but “plenty of time… a person like Nicole from BB2 was hated by the house first week and found her own by the end.” —Taran, 19:09

• Jason (4.2%):
  Messy but potential; “Big Brother’s a long game…if he manages to survive this initial confrontation, he can recover.” —Taran, 20:54

• Kamu (5%):
  Capable but stands out as a target; “He can’t not stand out… hard to blend in ever in the game.” —Taran, 22:30

• LaLa/Latrice (4.5%):
  Not as popular as expected; “There are quite a few people that she seems to be rubbing the wrong way… a little worrisome.” —Taran, 26:30

• Lyric (6%):
  Higher than initial estimate; “I could see Lyric making a deep run… real question is how capable at competitions.” —Taran, 28:06

• Mallory (3.5% → 5%) & Melody (5.5% → 6%):
  Mallory: “Rough week, but could absolutely have that Ashley trajectory.” (29:18)
  Melody: “Savvy, active game player… let her get deep enough, things could get interesting.” (30:18)

• Rick Devins (9-10%):
  “He’s in a better spot than I thought he would be… perfectly capable of winning endgame competitions.” —Taran, 31:29

• Rome (7% → 6%):
  Immediate danger but showmance potential; “Showmances do well as long as their focus shifts later in the game.” —Taran, 32:47
  Fun tangent: strategic “honeymoon” timing for showmances (33:33–34:10)

• Taylor (4.5% → 3.3%) & Yash (1.8%):
  Taylor: On block, real danger; “...damage done to you being a first week nominee.” —Taran, 34:30
  Yash: “If he’s great at comps, his chances are higher than 1.8% — we just don’t know yet.” —Taran, 36:30

Final Adjustments & Reflections (All at 100%) (39:15+)

Taran agonizes over fractional adjustments to ensure the percentages add to 100. Brief debate over whether a “1.8% chance” for Yash is realistic, with Taran defending low-chance underdogs: “If we watched it a hundred times, is Yash winning 1.8 times? I think so.” (36:30)

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4. Mailbag Segment: Listener Questions & Analysis (41:09–67:14)

Returnees’ Adaptation—Survivor-to-Big Brother Skills (41:13)

• “They’re adjusting better than the players who had never played anything before… experience is paying off.” —Taran
• Having each other (the Survivor alums) is a big boost.

Returnees’ (Crossovers’) Competition Track Record (42:13–45:25)

• Drew/Barrett have underwhelmed in comps so far.
  “There’s some potential challenges ahead… Not locked down yet by any means. This is not the Committee.” —Taran

Blockbuster & Early Alliances (45:25–47:38)

• Blockbuster’s influence:
  • Makes maintaining alliance control harder.
  • Introduces outcome and nomination unpredictability.
  • “You can’t take out the strong competitors you want, really—can only hope you get the right combination.” —Taran

Blockbuster’s Impact on Houseguest Behavior (47:38–49:36)

• More charitable gameplay toward nominees:
  “Now you actually want Ashley to win Blockbuster, because maybe it helps you.” —Taran
  “It’s incredible… just made for things to be more complicated but more interesting.” —Rob

Campaigning in Week 1 (60:31)

• The best-case scenario: get “power brokers” on your side.
  “You can’t get all the numbers yourself... trust that the people you go to have pull.” —Taran

Strategic Lessons: When to Share Info About Fake Alliances (54:38)

• Devins telling Angela & Drew about "Red Corner" — should he have told D first?
  • It depends on alliance style & trust; “The original sin was not talking to D about it first.” —Rob
  • “...If this happens again, I’m gonna have to start looking for a backup because I can’t just trust that it’s you screwing up again…or you pretending you’re screwing up and gaining advantage over me.” —Taran (57:27)

Campaigning for Survival (61:24–65:53)

• Taylor’s early work with D is exactly how to do it: identify and appeal to power players.
• Debate: Is it better to be saved by the Blockbuster or by the vote? (Better to be safe via votes—allies are evidence.)

Early Standout Newbies (58:52)

• Barrett & Drew praised but “kind of cheating” since they’re already in power.
• Flashes of potential in Kamu, Jason, Rome, Lyric, and the deliberate social climbing by Melody.

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5. Notable Quotes & Moments

On Win Shares

“If we simulated this season 100 times… is Yash winning 1.8 times? I don’t know.”
—Rob (36:12)

On Alliance Perception

“I’m getting Matt vibes from the Brigade… doing great work, but (they) don’t really appreciate it.”
—Taran, re: Drew (17:59)

On Returnees’ Impact

“They’re adjusting...better than the people who’ve never played anything before.”—Taran (41:13)

On House Dynamics Post-Blockbuster

"Normally you'd just ice out the block, now you're more charitable...and you might actually find you like Ashley. ...It changes your attitude." —Taran (47:38)

On Early Big Brother Weeks

“There is nobody standing out that's just doing really poorly… it's nice to feel like there's a little bit of variety going on.” —Taran (67:28)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Mailbag concept & show format: 01:09–03:13
• Intro to Win Share exercise: 03:13–07:07
• Win Share Breakdown (player-by-player): 07:07–39:35
• Listener Mailbag Q&A begins: 41:09
• Returnees transition & strengths: 41:13–41:46
• Crossovers’ comps: 42:13–45:25
• Blockbuster impact: 45:25–47:38
• Nominee treatment, early alliances: 47:38–49:36
• Info-sharing in alliances (Devins/Angela/Dee): 54:38–58:52
• Early standouts among new players (strategy): 58:52–60:31
• Week 1 campaigning advice: 60:31–65:53
• Final meta-analysis of the week’s play: 66:34–67:44

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Tone & Style Notes

• Purposeful, analytical, conversational: Both hosts maintain a laid-back but highly analytical tone, with plenty of humor and self-referential asides.
• Nerdy enthusiasm: Heavy into stats, game theory, and social strategy (with occasional BB history and references to similar moments in Survivor and other reality shows).
• Encourages engagement: Call-outs for listener mailbag submissions and feedback; episode is framed as start of an ongoing weekly dialogue.

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Summary for the Uninitiated

This premiere BB28 mailbag episode is a goldmine for super-fans and detail-oriented viewers. Rob and Taran introduce a “win equity” exercise to quantify each houseguest’s odds of winning at the start of the season—a step back from the usual frenetic pace of live feed updates. Their player-by-player debate airs the strengths, weaknesses, and trajectories of all 17 contestants, while mailbag questions steer them through the nuances of returnee gameplay, the strategic implications of new twists like the Blockbuster, and the challenges of surviving Week 1. The tone is insightful but accessible, offering both sharp strategy insights and an ongoing invitation for listener participation.

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Send in Your Questions!

Submit your own BB mailbag questions each week at Rob’s website to be part of the discussion.

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“It’s not financial advice!” —Rob & Taran, multiple times (40:16, 41:11)

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End of Summary

Transcript

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[Rob Cesternino]

Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile Now.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited Premium Wireless for $15 a month is back.

[Rob Cesternino]

So I thought it would be fun if we made $15 bills but it turns out that's very illegal. So there goes my big idea for the commercial. Give it a [e-mail] Switch upfront payment

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[Taryn Armstrong]

foreign.

[Rob Cesternino]

What's going on? Rob Cestrinino back here and it's a brand new show, something new that we're doing. It's a BB mailbag. I love a good mailbag. I love to hear what the listeners are thinking and I get to talk about it here. With the best there is to talk about Big Brother. It's Taryn. I'm strong. How are you?

[Taryn Armstrong]

I'm excited. I got a, we got a mailbag over our shoulders. We're, we're carrying them.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. You know, so for I think for five years, five seasons, we have been doing a call in show for Big Brother on Fridays and I, I basically do the call in show all year round and we talk about Big Brother during Fridays during the Big Brother season. We talked about it coming into this season. Friday's a busy day in Big Brother, especially when you're Taryn because it's always

[Taryn Armstrong]

been a tough time because it's usually like when the conversations happen for nominations like the one on ones are happening during the Q and A. Yeah. And we've tried to like adjust the time and we just, it's so hard to get right.

[Rob Cesternino]

And on top of that, it's usually Thursday night into Friday. It's the feeds come back typically a late night into a busy live feed update. We often in many, many times over the years have a exit interview also on top of that on Friday morning. And then of course all of this conversations that are going into the nominations and so we decided to split out some of these questions into a time when we could get into the weeds a little bit more and do a a tighter show that might be a little bit more focused on maybe the big picture as opposed to the TikTok of who's the nom, who's the hoh, what are the nominees, who's going to win the veto, who's the replacement nominee and maybe you just have like a bigger picture overview. And I think that that is what I aspire for the BB Mailbag to be.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I love it.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay. And so I going to throw you right into the fire here, Taran, because I have an exercise that I want to work on with you that I want to set up. And at the end of the Survivor season after Survivor 50 was over, I started thinking about a question about the win equity of the players, the win, the win share. And I described this in a Survivor video that I made about how a lot of times in sports, particularly when the Knicks were in their basketball playoff run, they had a couple of huge come from behind wins where that the Knicks had like a 0.1% chance to win the game and then they went on to win and when the other team had the 99.9% win share and then at some point you can track where it flipped and then the Knicks were ultimately went on to get the win. And I had this idea of could you do this with reality tv because and I started thinking about over the course of Survivor 50 and it was over. And so I tried an exercise where I went back to the beginning of the season and I tried to divvy up what each person's percentage chances were at the start of the season and where it went. And I, I thought I had some interesting takeaways for how that worked on Survivor and my thesis after it's all over is in that Survivor nobody really has that great of a percentage chance to win at any point in the pre merge and at best you can maybe give yourself a additional couple of percentage points but I think it's really even hard to top double digit. Especially in a season like Survivor 50 where there was 24 players. It was very hard for anybody to even crack double digit percentage total to win in the pre merge and really anything you did that gave you really a really even better percentage chance was ultimately something that attracted too much attention and it was very hard to win. And Aubrey who went on to win, I thought at points in the pre merge had maybe a 3% chance to win, a 4% chance to win. And then she ultimately goes on to do it. Big Brother, very different animal. And one that I think might look very different to try to do this type of exercise. And so what I'd love to do with your help, and you do such a great job on the stock watch. And the stock watch is really a number of different things. And there is a long term prospects factored into the stock watch, but for the most part, it's often a report card on how they did for the week. And I thought that this would be a fun thing to do to track over the course of the season the long term prospects of people to win the game.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I like it. Yeah. I think. And I think Big Brother's perfect for it because it's airing live, we're not subject to an edit, and we can be doing these calculations without any kind of foreknowledge, any kind of hinting at about anything.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Um, yeah.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay. And so much like on a cooking show. Okay. We have the master chef here. Okay. I have done all the prep work. Okay. And so I have my thought on what. And the way I did this was I. I took a crack at this. I also asked Brandon Donlin to take a crack at this. And then what you are getting is basically the average of me and Brandon. And we were pretty close on most of it. Of what where we see the percentage chances. And I want you to be brutally honest. You. You could really throw out the whole model. Say, hey, this is. There's only four people that could win the game at this point. And all these other people have, you know, 0.1% chance to win. But let's. Let's go through it and you tell me, are we too high or too low? And then we'll come away from this conversation with a new updated 100%. Okay.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I like it.

[Rob Cesternino]

All right, so we're gonna go in alphabetical order. And so I'm gonna bring up Angela. And it would be so helpful if I had open my document that I did with the windshare of everybody. And here is Angela. And this is one. Actually, Brandon and I were on the same page. We both said Angela has an 8% chance to win the game. How are you feeling about that?

[Taryn Armstrong]

Can we quickly do the math? What is the average?

[Rob Cesternino]

So the average, I think, is about. About five and a half percent out of the 17 players into 100.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Okay. I think. I think eight percent feels maybe a little low.

[Rob Cesternino]

Maybe. Maybe it's. Maybe it's in between. I think five and five and six.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Okay. You Know, I think that. And this is also a thing that, that I might kind of start adjusting as we go based on. Sure. Once I start to get an idea of roughly, like where people are falling. But I would say Angela has an above average chance to win right now. She's in a good spot. She has even. The thing about, like a returning player like Angela is that if she does make it to the end in a normal season, she probably is not winning because she had that paranoia moment, you know, and, and, you know, in her original season, people didn't really respect her that much as a game player. I think she can have some paranoia moments this season, and we're already seeing a little bit of that while still having the sort of aura of like, but it's Angela and still get some of those votes that she might not otherwise get. So I think her winning chances are still pretty decent. On top of that, her position is good. She's made some good relationships. I think she is certainly one of the people in the better position here.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay, so you think we're high or low with eight?

[Taryn Armstrong]

I. I mean, I think eight probably makes some sense. I don't think she's super high above the average, but I might make a future judgment if you, like, if you have, you know, Kamu at 8, I'm going to be like, all right, well, somebody needs to shift here.

[Rob Cesternino]

All right, so. All right, so we'll keep Angela at 8, at 8% to win the game. Okay. We have Ashley here and Ashley ends up being 3 1/2% chance for Ashley to win the game. I'll tell you that. You know, when I went back and I did the Survivor one, you know, Survivor is a different game where Survivor, a lot of times it's this person who, if, if you're doing too much, you have a bigger chance to lose Survivor where that somebody who is not doing a ton can often end up being the winner in the. And I think about if you played out the season 100 times, I don't know if Ashley is going to win three and a half times.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I kind of have to agree with you. And I assume we're also taking into account the fact that she's currently on the block and.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, I mean, as of today, you know, I honestly, you could probably do this like three times during the week and sort of like update it. But, but this is. As of Tuesday, July 14, this is what her percentage chance is to win.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Right. I mean, like, if you take into account the fact that she has like on. On the floor a 33 chance of being evicted this week. And it's probably a little bit higher than that. You can take her normal percent chance of winning and just like cut it by that percentage, basically, because the only worlds where she is winning she's already had to survive that 33 or so percent. And with that in mind, I. I feel like 3% even might be a little bit high for ashley, not only because she's a potential evictee this week but because she's spending a good portion of this week. Number one, not doing enough to avoid the block in the first place and number two, now on the block. And we know that this is a really, really bad starting point. Ashley and steve are two of the only people who have ever won the game after being first week nominees. They both won the veto. And then Taylor obviously was a pretty unique circumstance. So she starts in one of the worst positions in the entire house. So I would have to have her probably as one of the lower chances of anybody.

[Rob Cesternino]

So. All right, so she's at three and a half. Would you think that she should be at 1%.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Down from five? I would have her.

[Rob Cesternino]

No, we had three and a half. Three and a half.

[Taryn Armstrong]

We have four below, I think would be more appropriate. Right.

[Rob Cesternino]

So let's put her at two. Okay. All right, next up alphabetically is barrett. Barrett was one that there was probably the biggest delta between brand and I. We're going to say that Barrett has a 10% chance to win. I was lower on barrett. I thought he had an 8% chance to win. Brandon is higher. He's at a 12% chance to win for barrett.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Hmm. Interesting. I think I'm closer to you. You said you were eight. I think I'm closer to you right now. The big. He's in a great spot. The biggest thing for me is he needs to prove to me that he can win competitions. That's going to be key to any kind of win for the most part. In that regard, he's theoretically better positioned than Angela to win the game. But that's only theoretical because in the two competitions he's played in, he was one of two losers and then did not win the veto despite trying to win the veto. So, you know, I. I was really hoping that, like, being tall and, and, you know, at least relatively athletic would give him something. Plus being a super fan, knowing the strategies of competitions. But he hasn't quite proven it yet. I think if he proves himself to be good at competitions in one way or another, I'm going to be higher on him but right now I. I'd be more inclined to go at around that Angela level, maybe slightly higher, but. Yeah.

[Rob Cesternino]

All right. You do. Angela was at 8%. Do you want to give him also an A or you give him a nine?

[Taryn Armstrong]

I could give him a nine.

[Rob Cesternino]

Nine, I think. Nine and 9%. Not like a stock watch. Nine.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yes. Yes.

[Rob Cesternino]

All right. Next up is Chuck. Chuck. We're going to have a 2 1/2% chance for Chuck to win.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Interesting. Yeah. So you originally had him lower than Ashley, which is not what I would be inclined to do here. I think that Chuck is somebody that might be lower on the stock watch but probably higher in terms of percent chance to actually win. His position isn't amazing right now, but he's relatively unoffensive. He is capable of winning competitions as we've already seen. And he's not the biggest target amongst his group. So he has plenty of time to probably recover from any kind of downfall of his group.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, he's a bit of an afterthought for me. I've been trying to keep up with feeds as much as possible. I don't think I've watched him for one second in any. Anything I've been interested in seeing on the live feeds. He has not been part of at all.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah. He strikes me as the kind of person that like if Ka Mu and or Haley leave it's really going to open him up. He'll start socializing more with other people and I think he'll find a place somewhere somebody will want to pick him up. But that. That requires him surviving that initial strike which is not entirely like a guarantee, especially with the blockbuster. But I would have him more in the average range than anything too far below average.

[Rob Cesternino]

Average is 5.8, I think.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah. I mean if Angela's an 8 and Barrett's at 9% I think him at around 5%. OK. Like slightly below the average could make some sense here.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay. All right then we have D and D. This is the person that Brandon and I are both the highest on. And we're going to say that she has a 17% chance to win the game right now. And so this is I think maybe the most interesting one to get your reaction to where I wonder if you are going to say that we are too low.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I don't think I'll say too low quite yet because this she is in an alliance that is very. They all have good input. This is not like a top down run alliance. I do think she's decently positioned in the alliance but it's still early days. There still are like some talented people on her crew, including Devin's, including Drew to some capacity. Barrett and I. I haven't seen her like fully lock it in yet. Now. It doesn't mean that she won't. But, like, what I'd really like to see if I wanted to give her like a really high percentage is like really lock in Barrett as a secret showmance. Really have Devin's in the way that she does, really have Angela in the way that she does. I would also like her to like be able to. I, I feel like I, I wish I could trust Devin's to choose her over Drew and I don't know that I feel that yet or at all. I'd also like her to have her side pieces not be people she actively is against and gives information against in the house. I think she needs a landing pad that is a little more stable than the red corner if she's going to be trash talking them in the house. So there are some obstacles to get over. I think she most likely to get into a crushing spot, but I'm not quite sure she's 100% there yet. So I'd be more inclined to give her something more along the lines of like that, like 12% angle, I think a bit lower on D. All right,

[Rob Cesternino]

then after D, we're going to go to Drew. We'll call Devin's. Is Rick for alphabetical purposes here. Drew is next. And so Drew somebody that. There was a little bit of a difference between me and Brandon. I thought he had a 7% chance. Brandon is higher. He thinks a 10 chance. We averaged it out to 8 and a half percent for Drew.

[Taryn Armstrong]

8 and a half makes a lot of sense to me. I think Drew has, like I said, I think he has some talent. I think he's got a position. But I'm. I'm getting that like, that like Matt, the Matt vibes from the brigade. Yeah, like, he's doing great work for this group, but they don't really appreciate it and probably will eventually be too sketched out by him and try to make a move on him. Now that said, that's only if the group continues to dominate, which they're doing in part because of his work. But if something went wrong, he's I think the most capable of. Of bouncing off of it and going on a good deep run without these players. So it's almost like more beneficial if that happens. But right now they have such a stranglehold again, in part due to his own Work that. That doesn't seem the most likely. So I think around. I honestly don't want to give him too much higher than Angela. I think eight, eight and a half percent makes a lot of sense. Okay.

[Rob Cesternino]

All right, then we have Haley. Haley. Brandon and I Both gave her 2%.

[Taryn Armstrong]

2%. If Ashley's at a 2%, I think Haley at around, I would. I would give Haley a little bit higher of a percentage. She's had a rough first week, but she isn't going anywhere this week, and there's a chance she's not going anywhere next week. Yeah, Big Brother is a long game, and you can come off really poorly. In fact, the person she reminded me of the most when I first saw her was Nicole from Big Brother 2, who I could see similarly was hated by much of the house in the first week and by the end of the season had really come into her own and found her allies and all kinds of stuff.

[Rob Cesternino]

I think I said by the end of the season, she was hated by most of the house.

[Taryn Armstrong]

It's true. She came back around at the end, but I should have said by the middle of the season. But I do think that, like, there's plenty of time if a shot gets taken and she manages to avoid it. Think about Mackenzie. Think about where other players have been in this position before. If she does eventually emerge as a competition threat, that could do a number to change her position in the game. So I do think she has more upside than somebody like Ashley. Right now, I would be more inclined to go like a three, three and a half, maybe three and a half percent.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay, three and a half. And then after we go through everybody, we'll tell you what we're at, numbers wise, and then we'll have to, you know.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah, we might have to adjust somebody up or down numbers.

[Rob Cesternino]

Let me give you the purse. The person that we had the other big difference on in Jason. Okay. I was higher on Jason than Brandon. I said Jason I thought had a 6% chance. Brandon said that Jason has a 2% chance to win. So we'll average it as 4% for Jason.

[Taryn Armstrong]

4. 4% is the number I was thinking. Exactly. That's very funny. Obviously, he's in a lot of potential trouble right now, and I think he's going down the wrong path. But like I said, Big Brother's a long game, and if he manages to survive this initial confrontation with the vets, I think he's somebody who can recover and find a different path. It's just going to be a matter of surviving that initial blast.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. I know that he is messy right now, but I still think he has potential, more so than some others.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I agree.

[Rob Cesternino]

Let's talk about Kamu and oh, Ku is here and Kamu, we're going to say, has five and a half percent.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Just about average. Yeah, I think. I think that's probably about right. What did we put for. For Chuck? I think that Chuck is commas. Chuck's at five. I think Kamu is a more capable player than Chuck, but he's also more of a target than Chuck. He's been more. A bit more exposed than Chuck at the moment. That means that he's in more immediate danger, but even more likely to be able to recover if he survives. You know, the, the. The strike. Right. I always. I. You talk about the strike because Big Brother in many ways is. Is like risk where like, you have to make sure you take out all of the pieces of the person because if you leave just a little bit, they'll. They'll recover and come back at you while you're busy fighting other people.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah.

[Taryn Armstrong]

And so oftentimes that doesn't happen. You start to take out one group and you don't finish them off because you can't, because you do have another group you need to focus on. And those remainders can make a huge difference. Ashley is proof of that from last season. And so if Kamu gets to get into that position, I think that he's absolutely somebody that could do well. The problem is he doesn't. He can't not stand out, both in terms of how he looks and his personality. And so I think it's going to be tough for him to blend ever in the game. So I would personally have him probably a little bit lower, probably around where we have chuck at like 5%. Okay, 5.

[Rob Cesternino]

You know, I just talked to Emily on a podcast that we did and I asked her to give me one. One new player that you would think could be the winner of the season. And she said Camus. And you know, just got me thinking about how, you know, Dee and Rick, they have this fake alliance going on with the red circle and they're make over the corner, making it seem like that they are actually working with them. But at some point the jig is going to be up and I feel like that they're propping up that people in the house think that, oh, it's really Camus and Chalk and Haley, that they're really. And D is just sort of with them, but they're running things in the house and at some point there's going to be a wake up call for Camus and to a lesser degree Chuck and Haley and they're going to say, wait, we weren't running things like we got duped. It was the returnees. And I feel like that there, there, I think there's a danger for the returnees that the other two potential warring factions in the House could come together and say it was all the attorneys fault.

[Taryn Armstrong]

A hundred percent, 100%. The one of the more dangerous positions in Big Brother when you are playing the middle, which is a lovely place to be in Big Brother, it's, it's easier to do that than on Survivor because Survivor you're constantly making votes that could go anywhere. It's hard to play the middle. You'd have to pendulum to really play the middle, which doesn't really, isn't really the same. And Big Brother, you can actively pretend like you're on both sides because there's only ever two people available to vote for. But there are danger points where if say we, if we, if we narrow this down to simplify it and we say there's Rome's side and there's Kamu's side and D is pretending to be on Kamu's side while also pretending to kind of be on Rome's side and then Rome side wins and puts up Kamu, Haley and Chuck. Yeah, Kamu, Haley and Chuck are going to be like, why isn't D? Why like what's going on with D and Devin? Why aren't they on the block? And, and importantly, this is the crux moment. Dee and Devins, if they're not careful, will make it obvious that they're not with Camus and Haley and Chuck anymore and they'll kind of like start to distance themselves and that will be the true giveaway. We've seen that happen many, many times in Big Brother. Right. Those, those crucial moments are, are unattended by these players.

[Rob Cesternino]

And so I think it's a big danger for the returnees. And that being said, to echo what you were saying, I still, still don't think that anybody ever forgets about Kamu even in that scenario where then where that, let's say they take the fraternities out, they're still gonna say, oh well, Kamu is still has gotta go. We can't let him get to the end.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Exactly. And that's why I do feel like in the world where they take a strike at the red corner, maybe Kamu leaves, maybe Haley leaves and then it comes out like, hey, Maybe we should have been looking at the returnees a little bit closely. More closely. And now that we've weakened that, yeah, cool kid trio, we can focus our energies on the vet.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. So I actually think he has some. Maybe some more Runway than people may be giving him credit for right now. But I just. Still, it's hard to imagine him as the winner. Okay, let's talk about Lala. Lala, Latrice. I said as 6%. Brandon was lower 3%. So we'll average it to 4 and a half percent for Latrice.

[Taryn Armstrong]

4 and a half makes some sense to me. I. I am a little lower here on Lala. She's not quite as popular as I expected her to be in the house. There are quite a few people that she seems to be rubbing the wrong way, which in some ways can be good, but in other ways, like, it does diminish her ability to, you know, maybe win a jury vote down the road. And she's also pretty locked into one side, which I wasn't expecting for Lala. It's the. I mean, the fact that she was being pitched for by multiple people, including a little bit Devins himself to be the replacement nominee this week is. Is a little worrisome here.

[Rob Cesternino]

I think she thinks she's annoying.

[Taryn Armstrong]

He does. He does. And so, you know, when you have some of the most powerful people in the game kind of find you annoying, that's. That's dangerous. Because even if, like, in Lala's path to the end of the game, she gets there through the vets, but those vets are still probably on the jury, these people that did find her annoying are still probably on the jury. And so she's gonna have to, like, not only get through them in the game, but get through them in a way that impresses them enough and wins them over enough for them to vote for her over. Whoever she's there with, like Jason or Rome, like, those are her allies. And I think, you know, both of them right now are more likable than her in the. In the house, which is wild. Which is wild to me.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay, let's talk about Lyric. And Lyric is going to have a 4%.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I think I'm a little higher. I think I'm. I'm, like, more on, like, the average placement here. For Lyric, I'm a bit higher on where she stands. She's just, you know, she's theoretically on a sinking ship with the Jason, Rome, Lala of it all, but I don't think she's the target amongst that group. In any significant way. And in addition to that, she's starting to build. She started. She has her own allies, Mallory, Melody, you know, and with those people come Drew and Barrett to some degree, which is those are dangerous people, but also important people. I could see Lyric making a deep run. The real question for me is how capable is she at competitions?

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Because if she's capable at them, then I think she's a great chance to win. But right now I'd say it's about average.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay.

[Taryn Armstrong]

5.8. Okay.

[Rob Cesternino]

That's gonna throw off the math to do a 5.8.

[Taryn Armstrong]

We can do it.

[Rob Cesternino]

We can just call it 6. That's. That's. That's fine. Well, I'll tell you where we're at when we get to the end. Okay. All right, we're in the Lyric. Melody. Melody Gauntlet. Here's Mallory. Mallory. So I get. I gave her a five. Brandon gave her a two. So she's three and a half.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Boy, I think a five feels right to me. Just slightly below the average percentage. She won the veto. She took herself off the block. She managed to mitigate most of the damage that's done to first week nominees as well as prove herself as a competitor. She still has allies that want to distance herself from her, which is kind of ridiculous and really starting to look like it's more a Mallet Melody thing than a Mallory thing. But she is still a bit awkward. But I don't think that's a detriment to her potentially winning the game. She's absolutely somebody who, if you let her sneak into the end game, could win some comps, could make the right move. She seems ruthless enough to make the moves that she needs to make, could absolutely have that kind of Ashley trajectory. So I wouldn't count her out, but, you know, it was a bit of a rough week.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay. And then Melody. And so I had a 4% chance for melody, but Brandon was higher and he had a 7%. So she averages out to 5 and a half percent.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah. That's interesting. I think. I think I'm. I think I'm going to more so agree toward Brandon. I think I would go around 6% for melody. Around that same average. Mostly because despite this being also a rough week for her and making some mistakes that I wasn't particularly fond of, again, this not being a report card, but more so an actual percentage of chance to win the game. Yeah, I don't think anybody's looking at her anytime soon anymore. I think that the fact that she's kind of Firmly tucked under Drew's wing is pretty great for her. She's building something else, which is pretty great for her. She's got bigger targets all around her and she is, while making mistakes, still a savvy, active game player who's looking to build things, who knows the kinds of moves she needs to be making, even if she doesn't always make them. And so you let her get deep enough into the game and things could get a little more interesting for her.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay, now we have Rick. Devins and Rick. We were pretty close on. I had 10% for Rick. Brandon at 8%. So we average Rick to 9%.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I think around 10 to me. Makes sense for Rick. He's a bit under D right now, but I think he's actually the best positioned player in crossovers right now because he has that connection to Drew, he has the connection to Barrett and he's got the D and he's got a good relationship with Angela and he is finding himself in some good other positions as well. Loose attachment to Rome and the thing being built over there with Rome and Lyric and Melody and Drew, while also still retaining his position in red corner. He's got a lot to balance, but he's been doing it pretty well. In addition to that, he was doing really well on that puzzle in the challenge until it dropped. He still seems perfectly capable of winning endgame competitions. So I think Devin's. He's. He's in a better spot than I thought he would be. Jason is obviously a problem, but now that he knows that Jason's a problem, it's be going to kind of less of a problem.

[Rob Cesternino]

Let me tell you where you are right now. So there's a 11.7% to still divvy out between Rome, Taylor and Yash. Okay, so I think you're in pretty good, pretty good shape here. Let's. Let's talk about Rome. And Rome we have at a 7%.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Seven is not a bad number to have. I think I could go maybe around that six again. I think he's in more immediate danger than Lyric, but. But has more sort of long term potential. He did win a competition already. He's got some good relationships. He is very focused on Lyric, as is Lyric on him in the game, which is a detriment to both of them. But showmances do tend to do well overall as long as they can eventually get their focus onto the game, which might happen because they can only focus on themselves for so long before they'd get bored, right? Surely. But he does have some Immediate danger to deal with. So I think around 6%. Similar to lyric. Makes sense to me for Rome.

[Rob Cesternino]

Taryn, you know, you. You bring up a good idea of like, yeah, why not get in the showmance early? And then by the time it's sort of like the honeymoon's over now it's like the middle of the game. It's like, all right, now I'm gonna. Like, my showmance is kind of boring now we're honeymoon stage is over. Now let's get down to work.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Exactly. Yeah.

[Rob Cesternino]

Like, you know, like, I don't want to talk about Tyler and Angela, but, you know, they. They started the show, man, it's too late. They were the honeymoon through the end game.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah. They need to get it out of the way. You know, not real advice though, because this is probably one of the more crucial points. Maybe like, maybe like week three. Get it out of the way in week three.

[Prime Video Announcer]

Yeah.

[Rob Cesternino]

And then get through the honeymoon by the time it's like day 60. And then it's like, okay, let me, let me, let me wake up. Okay, we have 5.7% to still divvy up between first Taylor and then Yash. So Taylor, we get. We have a four. That four and a half percent for Taylor was what we had.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Four and a half is a little high for me just because I do think there's still a very real chance she leaves this week. And so I, I've got to cut maybe a little bit more off the top, uh, but maybe closer to like three and a half to four. I think that she is a perfectly capable player. But again, there's just some real damage done to you. Being a first week nominee. She hasn't been able to make the kinds of alliances and relationships that others have. And so she's going to start off kind of behind the eight ball here, even if she does survive. Okay. But she seems capable enough, so how

[Rob Cesternino]

about let you do these two in conjunction? Okay. So you have 5.7 to give up between Taylor and Yash.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I think I could. I could easily give. We both have 1% for yash, 1% for yacht. I could give Taylor 3.5 and yash like a 2 point. If give yasha, I could give Taylor 3.7 and yasha 2. But then I'd maybe give Ashley an extra 0.2 and drop yasha like a 1.8.

[Rob Cesternino]

All right, so give Ashley the 2.2 and then that gets yash to 1.8. Okay. Yeah, I, I will now I will play this back to you. One more time. And then let's so. And then you have, you know, you're right to change anything. We are at 100% divvied up.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I feel pretty, I feel like the math added up pretty well.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Compared to what I was expecting.

[Rob Cesternino]

Again, it sounds good. The, the, the place where my brain breaks is I just think about, like, if we simulated this season, like we watched it a hundred times. Is, is, is Yash winning the season 1.8 times? I don't know.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I, I, I think so. I think he's, he's likable enough. He doesn't know much of the game, but, like, similar to like a Paul, like, if he manages to survive and he does become a bit of a comp guy because that's the thing too. Like, we don't know how good he is at competitions yet, and he could be really great at them. And if he is, then his chances of winning are actually way higher than 1.8.

[Prime Video Announcer]

Right.

[Taryn Armstrong]

We just don't really know yet.

[Rob Cesternino]

Starts with he wins the blockbuster and then people like him, and then he's got an alliance, somebody who's friendly to him wins the hoh. And then away we go. All right, so Here we go. Yash, 1.8% percent, Taylor, 3.7%. Then is Rome, 6%. Rick Devins has 10%, Melody has 6%, Mallory has 5%. Lyric is 5.8%. Latrice, 4.5%. Kamu is 5%. Jason is 4%. Haley, 3 1/2%. Drew.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I think, I think I need to cut. I think I gave Taylor a little too much in order to not give Yash too much. Yeah, I think I would cut Taylor down by, like point four and give, give Jason some of those points.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay. All right, so Taylor is, is you want to take point four away from

[Taryn Armstrong]

Taylor and give like a 3.33, and

[Rob Cesternino]

Jason is now a 4.4%.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Maybe like a 4.2. And then maybe we'll give the other two to someone else.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay, so somebody else has a. Who is. Who does Tara want to give 0.2% of the pie to? Okay, 4.2% of the rice Krispie treat to Jason. Okay, so Jason now sits at 4.2%. Haley ends up being at three and a half percent, Drew at eight and a half percent. D has 12%, Chuck gets 5%, Barrett ends up getting 9, Ashley ends up with 2.2, and Angela has 8.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I think, I think I'll actually give the point to, to Haley. We'll make her like a 3.7. Is that right?

[Rob Cesternino]

Let's see. Haley has 3.5, so she'll get 3.7 for Haley.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah. She's not on the block, so it makes a little more sense for her to be 3.7 over. Over Taylor.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay. And there you go. Brandon is standing by. Brandon, do you have any. Any thoughts on this after hearing the, The.

[Taryn Armstrong]

The.

[Rob Cesternino]

The Taryn viewpoint?

[Taryn Armstrong]

I don't know. Can you. Can it. I'm back in the back.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay, maybe. Maybe we're. That maybe we're not able to go to Brandon as a. Who's a. Who's set up as a person producer. Let me see.

[Prime Video Announcer]

Okay.

[Rob Cesternino]

All right, well, maybe another time. All right, There you go. All right. And then next week we go that it should be quicker to just go through, you know, maybe who's up, who's

[Taryn Armstrong]

down, how they adjust and.

[Rob Cesternino]

And adjust it. Okay. And there you go. And don't be going on Kali or anything like that. Okay. We don't.

[Taryn Armstrong]

It's not financial advice.

[Rob Cesternino]

Not. Not financial advice. We. Maybe we'll ask Yash if we talk to him on an exit interview. Okay. Then I got some questions for you. And we have a great way for people to be able to send in questions for this podcast. Go to Rob's website.comb mailbag and we will take your questions every single week and we'll pick out some ones that are going to be fun to talk about. And let's. Let's talk about the returnees. A lot of questions about the returnees. This is a question from. Let me see if I have the. The person. I do not have the person who sent in the question. Okay. Unless the person. No, I'm sorry, the person who sent in the question is named D. Oh, allegedly. How well do you think that the Survivor players are adapting to Big Brother?

[Taryn Armstrong]

Pretty well so far. I think we've talked about this the other night that, like, I think that these Survivor players came in a lot more prepared than Surrey did to adjust themselves to the different pacing of Big Brother and the way that it operates. So I think they're, quite frankly, they're adjusting, you know, better than the players who had never played anything before. They have the experience and they know, they knew ahead of time that they would need to be adjusting that experience. And that's paying off.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, I think it helps also that they have each other to also bounce off of and to run things past. And so I think that that's also really, really helpful. Like if Suri came in with. I'm not sure like what other. If she. She came into the big brother house with Ozzy or somebody that she could maybe not. Ozzy's not the best example which came in with Aubrey that she could potentially, like, have done even better.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I agree.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, she really had that in Izzy. Izzy was like the pseudo person who had not played before, but she could bounce things off of. Okay, this is from Jared, who says, how do you see the crossovers doing long term? I worry about their comp abilities. With maybe their only very strong competitor being D. Will they be able to maintain control without consistently winning power? I think that might be a little soon to declare the crossovers bad at cops.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I think it's soon to declare them bad at comps, but I understand the. The worry that they. They might be not great at comps. You know, we saw Drew kind of fumble a bit during the Survivor challenge that. That. That Chuck won. We saw Barrett again do pretty poorly. One of only two people to fail the Enzo challenge. And. And then he did not win the veto. I'm not sure. I don't remember exactly how he did in the veto, but I'm sure we'll. We'll see on Wednesday night. So maybe a little bit of reason to worry there and then. Angela, of course, has won competitions. Not a slouch in competitions, but will certainly fall behind in anything that's too physical. And then. Then there's Devens, who is largely untested so far. Still yet to see how he does, but I think he's. He's capable of keeping up for the most part. And he's very good at carnival games. So I think Devin's could win some here and there. So, you know, it's then like comparing them to the field. And the field certainly has a lot of, like, fit people. I mean, this is a fit, fit cast. So anything physical, they will probably be out. Physical, but physical, it's really just like, can you get over the bar of physicality and then do the rest of it really well most of the time? So. So we'll see. But. But to answer the question, if they are a little behind when it comes to competitions, will they be able to retain this level of control? And the answer to that question is it would be a lot harder. It genuinely is a lot harder. At the end of the day, the brigade dominated in competitions. The pretty boys dominated in competitions. The cookout less so, but still did very well in the competitions. So you really do need to have a good, solid foundation if you want to control the house in the way that These big dominant alliances do. That's why having the red corner in their corner is very useful. That's why this new thing with Drew and Melody and Lyric and Rome could be really important. And it's why taking out a competitor like Jason, who has won a competition already could be incredibly crucial for them in the short term. So, yeah, I mean, to answer your question, I think that there is. They have not locked things down yet by any means. This is not the committee right now who is potentially, like, amped up to win every single competition because Cody intentionally gathered all the most physical people in one. In one group. Like, there's. There's some potential challenges ahead.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. You've talked and written a lot about how the battle of the block really helped these big super alliances end up keeping their power throughout the course of the season. This is only year three of the blockbuster competition, but I'm curious to know if you have thoughts on does that make life harder or easier for these early alliances?

[Taryn Armstrong]

I think in theory, we would say it should make it harder. And in practice, that is what we've seen over two seasons. Having to nominate three people, being less in control of who ends up evicted means that it's. It's harder to keep things tight. And so in addition to that, it means that it's harder to take out the strong competitors that are against you. You can put up, you know, Rome and Lala and Jason and hope that you can take out Jason because he's the best competitor or Rome as a backup. But then, oh, Jason wins the veto and Rome wins the batt. The blockbuster, and now you're stuck taking out Lyric or Lala or whoever else that you just. Just to take a number from their side, but their best competitors are still viable and winning competitions. And so I do think that the blockbuster will make this harder as well.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, it's incredible to me just how much they cooked with the introduction of the AI arena and now the blockbuster. I think that everything that is bad about Big Brother, I think that this was such a magic pill that they were able to add to the show in so many obvious ways, but also in some not obvious ways. And I think that one of the ways, and I would love to get your reaction to this, is that just the behavior of the house guests towards the people on the block, I think is so much more charitable because of the possibility that they may still come off the block. It's not a foregone conclusion that somebody is going to go home, so they're not icing people out. And Horrible to people who are on the block, especially in these early weeks and in the way that they would be in the past.

[Taryn Armstrong]

A thousand percent. Yeah. Yeah. The fact that there's a good. Like you don't. In a normal season two people on the block, you can talk with everyone and have a pretty solid understanding that the house is voting one way and therefore, you know, let's say it's Ashley is just a goner. Like, there's nothing that there's no competition unless some big house flip happens. There's no point in talking to Ashley, associating yourself with her. And anything she tries to do is like, hey, don't. Don't get the stink of, like, outcast on me. And, oh, don't believe anything she says. She's obviously already halfway out the door. She's going to say whatever she needs to say. Whereas right now, even though Ashley is the most likely person to be evicted, you still should hear her out because what if she wins that blockbuster? She's not a guaranteed evictee at that point. And I want to make sure I'm still in good with her. And I'm not going to, like, let her know that she has no chance of her of voting with me, which means I'm gonna be more charitable in the conversation that I have with her. And now that I'm being more charitable, I'm actually starting to see that I kind of like Ashley and maybe I don't want Ashley to go. Maybe I'm kind of secretly hoping she wins the blockbuster because that would be kind of secretly great for me. And all of a sudden, like, your entire attitude changes and. Yeah, I think it has helped a lot.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. People say what, maybe we should pick up Yash. Maybe he's going to win the. Maybe he's somebody that we can put on our side. Let's not write him off.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Exactly.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. And so it's just. It's incredible. Just what? Like, made for things to be more complicated but also more interesting as the week goes on. Also.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah. And there's so many things too, like, as even just talking about, like, how it leaves things uncertain all the way up until Thursday night, which has never been like the biggest problem for show only watchers, but for feed watchers now it's like, Thursday night is exciting because we don't know what's going to happen because we don't know what's happening with blockbuster.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. And this week with two nominees would be, you know, not that it's the most exciting eviction coming up on Thursday. Night. I think it's a pretty low stakes eviction for most of us. But there is like the intrigue of these couple of votes where if it was, you know, Yash versus, you know, either of the women who are up on the block, I think it'd be kind of a foregone conclusion going in. But, you know, there's uncertainty.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Exactly.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Good stuff.

[Rob Cesternino]

Let's take a question. This is from David, who says in the most charitable way, is it possible that Jason spilling to Drew is calculated so that he can fully clock the crossovers? He already did it with Angela and Devin's when he gave them information.

[Taryn Armstrong]

No, the thing he did with Angela was not calculated either.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, you set up. What did he do with Angela?

[Taryn Armstrong]

Basically, Angela was talking. They were talking about how D doesn't know the game very well. And Angela tried to be like, oh, and Devin's also doesn't know it. And he initially tried to ignore that statement. And then when they brought it back up again, she again brought up Devin's, at which point he kind of couldn't help himself to. But. But be like, I don't. I think Devin's actually knows more than he lets on. And like, felt like, oh, and I tip. I just tip my hat to Angela. And then lo and behold, Angela goes and talks to Devins. And later that day, Devins is talking to me. Therefore, I think I've caught them in the act. It was not like a necessarily, I think, a deliberate seed planted. Although he may sort of like, like characterize it as that. He's certainly not, you know, telling Angela, I'm gonna secretly make Rice Krispies for Devins and then see if it goes back to Devins. And I certainly don't think he's doing that with Drew either.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, you better be careful with making those Rice Krispie treats for Rick Devins because that there's the Ben Franklin effect where you start doing nice things for people and then you're gonna psychologically, like, I actually do like Rick Devins.

[Taryn Armstrong]

And genuinely like, there's. There's a world where like, Drew getting in the way of this film first actually just further damages this relationship. Like, it is good obviously that Devin is aware that Jason's coming after him. But, you know, fact isn't solid in the Big Brother house. It. It is very fluid. And so like, yes, Jason hates Devin's right now, but think about Jimmy and how anti Rachel he was until he wasn't. And Rachel didn't have to know about that until much later on. And if Rachel had found out how against her Jimmy was early on that they may never have come together. So like, if Jason had made these Rice Krispies and Devin had had the reaction that he had when Rome told him it was happening, which was to tear up and hug him and maybe they like have a real conversation. You know, Jason still probably is going to hate Devin and he's probably going to be like, haha, I tricked him. But if they keep having those kinds of moments and they keep having those kinds of conversations, eventually Jason might soften up. But now that Devins is aware, they're not really going to be able to heart to heart unless they actively address the situation, which is another way of potentially, you know, making the relationship better.

[Rob Cesternino]

Taryn, do you know, does Jason know anything about Survivor Rick Devins or does he just have this animosity towards him because he is a returning player from another reality show show? Like does he have any. Has he watched Rick Devins ever on television?

[Taryn Armstrong]

I'm pretty sure he has. He's a big Survivor fan and the second he saw Devin's he was like this guy, we can't trust him. The question I had was like, does he only know Devins from Edge of Extinction or did he actually have a chance to watch 50? Because Drag Race All Stars, the season that he was on was has been airing like very recently and that might have taken up a lot of bandwidth. Not that they were filming now, but like it was airing. And so you're focused on your own show. I imagine you might not have had a chance to see 50 or been as involved in 50 and seen sort of like the other side of Rick Devins, which I would say is like a more loyal part of a team player and only became that individual later in the game. Whereas in Edge of Extinction, I feel like you remember his big long run where he's just like one guy against the world, tricking people left and right.

[Rob Cesternino]

Fake idols and yeah, so the loyalty card really is a much bigger part of Rick Devin's story in season 50.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Exactly.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay, Michael Horn wants to know. I was so interested by the debate that Dee and Devins had on Sunday night's episode about Devin's telling Angela and Drew about Red Corner. Can y' all talk more about when it's best to tell your main alliance members about a fake side alliance right away versus keeping it secret. If Devin said as d beforehand about it, what decision should they have come to?

[Taryn Armstrong]

It's a very good question and I think it is so dependent on the people. So like with Red Corner. They are people who stick together a lot. They're not very subtle. You know, a lot of people have already clocked that they're working together and they are big targets as well. And then you're dealing with people who have a lot of ears in, you know, throughout the house. Like, Drew has a lot of sources of information, Barrett has a lot of some sources of information, and Angela, who's a very paranoid person in general, as she would self describe. And so I do think in this spot, there's a lot of reason to tell them about Red Corner. I think another reason is that it's very, very early, and these early alliances so often, you know, do get exposed or don't go anywhere. Whereas, like, if you were slowly developing a relationship and things start to come together and it's very hush hush, maybe that's where you can be a little more reluctant to give away that information.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. So I think that really the original sin from Rick Devins was to not talk to Dee about this. And, you know, Rick Devins and D and Angela, they are in a bit of a throuple here. And we certainly had that terminology in Survivor 50, where in the throuple, you know, Siri was really calling the shots of, here's what I'm going to tell Ozzy, here's what I'm gonna tell Rizzo. When I want, I'm gonna bring them. But there was never, like Rizzo and Ozzy talking about siree to each other and leaving siree out of it. Like, the throuple worked when siree was, you know, the person doling out the shots. And as a friend of mine's grandmother recently said, somebody is always underserved in a threesome. Bryce's grandma on Love island, she said that. Talking about. I recall when. When Bryce went with Zach and Kada, but I think that D is like very comfortable being the leader of the throuple of me and Rick Devins and Angela and seem to really dislike. Oh, wait, hold on. Angela and Rick are talking without me, that seems to be like a little bit of a issue for. For D. So I think that for both of them, they got to bring this information to D first. And if, like, hey, can I tell Rick? Can I tell Angela? And as long as they do that, I think they'll be okay. But don't unilaterally make decisions without D.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I. I would feel the same way. In D's position, I would be less concerned about the. The decision to tell Angela and the rest of the alliance because maybe that's the decision I would have come to as well eventually, but certainly much more concerned about Devin's going off and doing it without talking to me first. Because it's information that involves me, and I want to make sure that I'm, you know, I have a say in when that information goes wherever it goes. But in addition to that, it also makes me feel like Devin's got ahead of me to talk to Angela, and. And he got those points of, like, I'm telling you this thing, and I didn't get to have those points. And did Devin do that on purpose or did he do that accidentally? And I'm never going to know the answer to that. So I'm always going to be like, if. If this happens again, if I feel again like Devin has undercut me in any way, I'm going to start to feel like it's intentional, and I'm going to start to be, like, really watchful of this guy. It's one of those things that's like, damn, like, you really did something that I. That will make me not trust you. But, like, I. I need to trust you. And so this is gonna, like, if it happens again, I'm gonna have to start looking for a backup because I can't just trust that it's you. Oops. Screwing up again. Or if it's you pretending you're screwing up while secretly gaining advantage over me.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. Okay, let's do one or two more. How about Taryn? Another question from D. Not the person in the house. Which new players do you think are setting the strongest foundation to go far in the game?

[Taryn Armstrong]

I mean, obviously Drew and Barrett, but that's kind of cheating. I think, at this point, aside from Drew and Barrett, I'm actually, like, I am impressed with what Kamu's trying to set up. I am. I would be impressed with how Jason is moving, if not for the obvious, which is just saying too much. But in terms of, like, structure, I like where Jason sits, and I would be really happy with what Rome and Lyric are doing if they were a little more focused on the game than on each other. I think Mal. I think Melody is trying to set herself up really well, but failing at the moment, though, making progress. So a lot of these new players, it's such an interesting cast because so many people are doing parts of things right, but they. But none of them have the full picture, and you wouldn't expect them to. They're all completely new to this, and they're facing off against people who are very. Not new to this who are coming in prepped. And so at the end of the day, they're all just behind. They're starting late. Like they like, almost like they haven't started at all yet. Meanwhile, Devin's and D are like, you know, they've already completed two laps. And so, you know, you can see the potential in some of these people, but they haven't been able to express much of it yet.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay, one more question for you, and this is from Marcus. How are you supposed to campaign if you're in danger? Week one, I feel like people who are most at risk of going on the block are also going to have the least information about the house, making it hard to make a good pitch to the other house guests. It is a very interesting. And this is the end of the question. I think it is an interesting spot to be in on week one. Typically you're somebody like, oh, we just didn't get along. And so you're kind of an outsider. I'm also curious to know if you have a thought on are you better off being the person who gets off of the block in week one by winning the blockbuster, or are you better off being the person that the house ends up not whether they're saving you or voting out the other person, but the house voted for you to come back.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I mean, I would say obviously the best case scenario is they were planning to vote you to come back regardless and you win the blockbuster. But if I had to choose between winning the blockbuster, but I would have been voted out if I hadn't or I was good, no matter who won the blockbuster, I would probably prefer being good regardless. Not even just like beforehand, even like results oriented wise. Like, I'm safe either way. And that's because if I was good regardless, that probably means that I have some allies to go back to. Whereas if people were planning to vote me out but then I won the blockbuster, yes, I've won the competition and that gives me more ability to gain allies afterward, but it means I don't have them to start with. So. So to answer the question, yeah, like it's. It's a tough position. The best thing to do is and. And the. The question asker is completely correct to point out, like, unfortunately, the people on the block have the least amount of knowledge do to do this, but ideally you identify the power brokers and you get them on board as quickly and solidly as possible. We've seen Taylor do this pretty decently. She's had the most amount of time because she had a head start on Yash because he didn't know what he was doing and Ashley wasn't on the block yet. And Taylor has gone to D and really won D over. And the. The most obvious power broker is always the hoh. So the fact that Taylor got to D first has been massive for her chances. In addition to that, she's gone to people like Lala and Rome who, you know, tend to be a little more on her side and. And Jason, she's even got, you know, some amount of relationship with Kamu and his crew. And so Taylor has been doing a good job of this. The problem is now Yash is doing the same and Ashley's doing the same. Taylor just got there first. So they've all identified the right power brokers and it was just kind of a race to get there. Taylor kind of got there first. So that's the biggest thing to do is really just identify those power. You can occasionally grab somebody who's like tangential to power and if you can really get them on your side, you can have them campaign for you, which is very nice. At the end of the day, you can't be like, I'm gonna, I'm Gonna personally get 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 votes. I'm gonna talk to each of those seven people individually. You don't know the consistency.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Of the numbers you will have to get. You have to just trust that the people you go to have the poll to pull the numbers that they will need, the groups that make sense for them and, and follow their lead. If they want to help you, like, who do they want you to talk to? Who do they want you to be good with?

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, I just wanted to jump on something that you said. I think it was a made on the live feed update with Maggie today about that the person that people should be going for to get out in this week. I, I think Taylor is the right person that the returnees should be. And listen, I, I don't want Taylor to go home. She's on my draft team. I feel like that she could be sneaky, somebody to watch down the road, but because of that, I think that she is the person who's probably the most aligned with a group that's not the returnees. I think that she is the most valuable target on the board of those three people because it's kind of three nothings that are on the block this week. It doesn't really shake up the snow globe too much. But the person who's the least a nothing is Taylor.

[Taryn Armstrong]

The hardest person to get out in the first week is usually the person that is the best person to get out. And I do think that person is Taylor. This, this time around, it, it, it was Zay last time and it was Matt the time before. And you know, like in, in following that sort of archetype, you'd think Yash and I think that's part of why they're looking at Yash. And there is a world where again, Yash is great at competitions and if he loses this blockbuster, then they are lucky to have him vulnerable. And if take the shot, then he wins a billion competitions afterward. It's like, oh, look at you saying that Taylor's the harder one to get out. But in terms of the game that has been played so far, Taylor is more insulated and she has shown more ability. Doesn't mean Yash can't learn and that he might not also be really dangerous. And that's part of why it is a little bit of an up in the air decision. But particularly for the vets, the issue is that Taylor is not only, you know, has not only done better, but that she's done better with people that are really dangerous to the vets like Jason and Lala.

[Rob Cesternino]

If Yash wins the blockbuster on Thursday, what are the chances we see some major aura farming?

[Taryn Armstrong]

You think he like, goes, he, he like grabs Rome and the two of them like do some like statue poses maybe.

[Rob Cesternino]

I don't know how close they are, but if they are close, like as I saw clips of Rome doing impressions of Yash, so I don't know if he necessarily.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yash likes Rome, Rome doesn't like Yash. Yeah, seems to be the vibe that tracks.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay. All right, Tara, anything else that's on your mind at this hour? Tuesday, by the way, this is Tuesday at 5 o' clock Eastern, in case things may have changed in between now and when you hear this podcast, nothing major.

[Taryn Armstrong]

I'm just like, I, I'm enjoying this time because I think everyone, it's, it's not often that we see an alliance like kind of doing this well this early while still being cheered on.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah.

[Taryn Armstrong]

And I think it's in part because we're all relieved that people are actually playing well. It's that we know Devin's indeed from Survivor and that's exciting. And Angela and, and Barrett and Drew have both been pretty cool on the feeds. It's been just a fun, fun little opening week and it's kind of gone really well. And I hope we continue, continue to maintain this vibe, at least for a Little while. While. While we ride this out.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. I mean, and it's fun when we get like a all time flop to be the first boot on the season where they do something historically bad. It's only Tuesday. You know, the week is young, but it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah. And. And that's the thing. Like there is nobody standing out that's just doing really poorly. Yeah. This season. And, and that can be fun, as you said. But like, that's kind of what we've seen a bunch of times in a row at this point. And so it's nice to feel like there's a little bit of variety going on.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay. All right, so we're gonna leave it there. Check out the slop over on the patron feed as well. We'll be back with another BB mailbag. Robinsobs.com BB mailbag if you want to send in questions. Plus so much other Big Brother content. That starts every day with Taron Armstrong at 11:00am Eastern. Tara, what else is coming up for you?

[Taryn Armstrong]

More live feed updates, more streaming on my own Patreon. I rob I finished Love Island.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah, that finale was tough, right? It.

[Taryn Armstrong]

It was tough. It was tough because of how long it was. And it was especially tough because of that challenge. They did it just. Oh, I watched both of them in succession. But like it was tough.

[Rob Cesternino]

So let me ask you, so when you do a stream like that, because even me, one of the biggest Love island fans there are, I think I was probably watching like on 2x most of the finale. Are you watching on 1x the whole time?

[Taryn Armstrong]

I have occasionally sped up episodes of things if they're long. I didn't do that with Love Island. Instead, I was just skipping forward.

[Rob Cesternino]

Okay.

[Taryn Armstrong]

A lot. Like basically anytime a phone rang, I tried to skip past.

[Rob Cesternino]

I've got a text because it was

[Taryn Armstrong]

really loud and annoying. I usually skipped past a lot of the challenges. Anytime somebody starts making out, I just go, yep. And I skip forward. That's basically how it works.

[Rob Cesternino]

Yeah. Okay. All right, so thank you for joining us for the first BB mailbag. I thought it went great.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Taren.

[Rob Cesternino]

I gotta be honest, I'm biased.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Yeah.

[Rob Cesternino]

All right. Thank you so much for joining us. Take care, everybody.

[Taryn Armstrong]

Have a good one.

[Rob Cesternino]

Bye.