Global Collapse? Trump’s Tariff War Explained

Summary

Rich Dad Radio Show: In-Your-Face Advice on Investing, Personal Finance, & Starting a Business
Episode Summary: "Global Collapse? Trump’s Tariff War Explained"
Release Date: April 30, 2025
Host: Robert Kiyosaki
Guest: Richard Duncan, Economist and Author of The Dollar Crisis

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Introduction: Setting the Stage for Economic Turmoil

In the April 30, 2025 episode of the Rich Dad Radio Show, host Robert Kiyosaki engages in a critical discussion with economist Richard Duncan about the looming threat of a global economic collapse exacerbated by President Trump's aggressive tariff policies. This episode delves deep into the complexities of the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, the implications of massive trade deficits, and the potential for an unprecedented financial crisis.

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Guest Introduction: Richard Duncan’s Expertise

[02:14] Richard Duncan:
"Thank you, Robert. It's really great to be back. Thank you for having me back."

Robert Kiyosaki welcomes Richard Duncan, highlighting his extensive background with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Duncan's insights are grounded in his 2002 book, The Dollar Crisis, which predicted significant vulnerabilities in the global economy stemming from U.S. trade deficits.

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Understanding the Reserve Currency

[03:04] Richard Duncan:
"It's very important that the US has the reserve currency. It means it's the main currency in the world that other countries trade in."

Duncan explains that the U.S. dollar's role as the reserve currency allows other nations to conduct international trade using dollars. This status originated post-World War II when the dollar was pegged to gold, and other currencies were subsequently pegged to the dollar. Maintaining this status facilitates a continuous influx of $16 trillion in trade deficits, which benefits both the global economy and the U.S. by keeping bond yields low and financing budget deficits.

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The Escalating Crisis: From Trade Deficits to Debt

[05:13] Robert Kiyosaki:
"The US national debt is like 36 trillion off balance sheet... including Social Security, Medicare, they estimate is around 250 trillion."

Kiyosaki underscores the astronomical rise in U.S. national debt and off-balance-sheet liabilities, exacerbated by continuous money printing and budget deficits. Duncan responds by detailing the exponential growth of various economic indicators since 2002, such as the U.S. government debt climbing from $6 trillion to $36 trillion and the Federal Reserve's assets ballooning from $700 billion to $9 trillion.

[06:43] Richard Duncan:
"We're moving into a new period where the dollar is going to plunge like it did after 2002... the dollar fell 41%."

Duncan warns that the dollar is poised for a significant devaluation, potentially eroding its reserve currency status and destabilizing global economies reliant on dollar-denominated assets.

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Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Devaluing the Dollar

[07:25] Robert Kiyosaki:
"President Trump wants to devalue the dollar... What is going to happen, Richard?"

Kiyosaki probes into President Trump's strategy of imposing high tariffs, particularly a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, aiming to devalue the dollar to make American products more competitive. This tactic is detailed as part of a broader strategy outlined by Stephen Moran, involving:

1. High Tariffs Globally
2. Threatening Withdrawal of U.S. Security Umbrella
3. Forcing Devaluation of the Dollar (Mar-a-Lago Accord)

[11:00] Richard Duncan:
"The only sensible thing for anyone to do is to sell US Dollar assets as quickly as they can before the dollar gets devalued."

Duncan emphasizes that understanding Trump's devaluation strategy should prompt investors to divest from dollar-denominated assets to safeguard against potential losses.

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China’s Retaliation: Economic and Military Responses

[14:08] Richard Duncan:
"China must view this as an act of war... They are going to retaliate very hard in ways that will be very painful for the average American."

Duncan outlines potential Chinese responses to U.S. tariffs, which could range from dumping U.S. Treasury bonds, banning Chinese exports, shutting down American businesses in China, to military actions like blockading Taiwan or supporting North Korea. These retaliations could trigger severe economic disruptions, supply chain breakdowns, soaring inflation, and a plummeting U.S. stock market.

[20:55] Richard Duncan:
"China can retaliate economically and they can retaliate militarily... This would crush the US Stock market, send it into a very severe recession."

He elaborates on the grave consequences of such actions, highlighting the fragility of the current economic system under the strain of trade wars and geopolitical tensions.

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Macro Watch: A Tool for Navigating Economic Uncertainty

[34:09] Robert Kiyosaki:
"Richard, what can a person do? Beyond subscribing to Macro Watch... what else can a person do to protect themselves in this critical time?"

Kiyosaki introduces Richard Duncan's Macro Watch, a subscription-based program offering in-depth analysis of global economic trends using charts and simple explanations. Duncan details the program's offerings:

[34:58] Richard Duncan:
"Macro Watch explains how the economy really works today... teaching people about the forces driving the financial markets."

[36:10] Richard Duncan:
"I upload a new video every couple of weeks... helping people make better investment decisions."

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Micro-Level Strategies: Protecting Personal Finances

[26:25] Richard Duncan:
"Investors need to adapt as the crisis unfolds. In the near term, expect higher inflation and a recession."

Duncan advises individuals to adopt strategies aligned with the changing economic landscape:

1. Short U.S. Stocks and Dollar:

   • Preemptively shorting stock prices and the dollar to hedge against anticipated declines.

2. Invest in Gold and Silver:

   • Purchasing precious metals as a hedge against dollar devaluation and inflation.

3. Mortgage Debt as an Investment Strategy:

   • Utilizing fixed-rate mortgages to benefit from debt erosion during inflationary periods.

[30:15] Richard Duncan:
"China is facing unemployment problems, which will reflect in the U.S. as tariffs crush consumer and business sentiment."

As businesses halt investments and reduce spending, unemployment rates are expected to rise in both China and the U.S., further depressing economic activity.

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The Path Ahead: Inflation, Recession, and Potential War

[25:32] Robert Kiyosaki:
"This is a war on all levels right now, militarily, financially, and tariffs."

Kiyosaki synthesizes the macroeconomic and microeconomic discussions, emphasizing the intertwined nature of financial policies and geopolitical tensions. He echoes Duncan's concerns that the convergence of high inflation, recession, and aggressive tariffs could precipitate a severe global economic downturn, potentially escalating to military conflict.

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Conclusion: Urgent Call to Action

[38:33] Richard Duncan:
"Thank you, Robert, and thank you for being my mentor and for your friendship over the years."

As the episode concludes, both speakers underscore the urgency of understanding and preparing for the impending economic challenges. Kiyosaki urges listeners to heed Duncan's warnings and adopt proactive measures to safeguard their financial futures.

[39:00] Robert Kiyosaki:
"This is not a time to be stupid or ignorant. This is a time to pay attention."

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Key Takeaways:

• U.S. Dollar Vulnerabilities:
  The U.S. dollar's status as the reserve currency, underpinned by enormous trade deficits and national debt, is unsustainable and may lead to its devaluation.

• Trump’s Tariff Policies:
  Aggressive tariffs aimed at devaluing the dollar could trigger severe economic and geopolitical repercussions, including potential military conflicts.

• Investment Strategies:
  Diversifying investments away from dollar-denominated assets, increasing holdings in precious metals, and leveraging fixed-rate debts are critical protective measures.

• Macro Watch Resource:
  Richard Duncan’s Macro Watch offers valuable insights and analyses to help individuals navigate the deteriorating economic landscape.

• Urgency for Action:
  Immediate and informed action is essential to protect personal finances against the backdrop of a potentially devastating global economic collapse.

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Notable Quotes:

• Richard Duncan on the Reserve Currency:
  [03:04] "It's very important that the US has the reserve currency. It means it's the main currency in the world that other countries trade in."

• Robert Kiyosaki on National Debt:
  [05:13] "The US national debt is like 36 trillion off balance sheet... including Social Security, Medicare, they estimate is around 250 trillion."

• Richard Duncan on Dollar Devaluation:
  [06:43] "We're moving into a new period where the dollar is going to plunge like it did after 2002... the dollar fell 41%."

• Richard Duncan on China’s Retaliation:
  [14:08] "China must view this as an act of war... They are going to retaliate very hard in ways that will be very painful for the average American."

• Robert Kiyosaki’s Call to Action:
  [39:00] "This is not a time to be stupid or ignorant. This is a time to pay attention."

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Final Thoughts:

This episode of the Rich Dad Radio Show serves as a compelling warning about the fragility of the current global economic system. Through the expertise of Richard Duncan, listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the impending risks posed by unchecked national debt, trade deficits, and aggressive fiscal policies. The discussion underscores the necessity for individuals to take proactive steps in safeguarding their financial well-being amidst looming economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Transcript

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[Robert Kiyosaki]

The good news and bad news about money. Here's Robert Kiyosaki.

Hello, Hello, Hello. Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Radio show broadcasting from Arizona. And today we have a very special one of My original guests, 25 years ago, I believe now, and Richard Duncan. And we're so old, I found his book in Borders Bookstore, which is now gone out of business by Amazon. I mean, so much has transpired because things are moving so quickly. But the reason I'm very excited to call Richard, my friend, is I was in Borders Bookstore and his book went, picked me up. It was a book called the Dollar Crisis. And I went, holy moly. And it was the perfect book for me to read because what Rich did, he verified what my rich dad and what Bucky Fuller were saying about our currency, our money, the dollar crisis. And Rich's credibility is impeccable. He's an economist from Babson, but also with the IMF and also the World Bank. So he knows what he's talking about. He comes from experience, which is crucial today. And Richard is also sitting on the border of China and Thailand, which I often wondered why, but it's a beautiful. Thailand's a beautiful country. But I remember Richard, you know, when the Thai baht collapsed, that was an interesting time to be in Thailand also. So, anyway, Richard, as an old friend and trusted advisor, welcome to the Rich Dad Show.

[Richard Duncan]

Thank you, Robert. It's really great to be back. Thank you for having me back.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

And the crisis is getting worse, isn't it?

[Richard Duncan]

Well, we've, I mean, so much worse so quickly. It's. It's hard to describe. I'm really extremely concerned that the global economy could. Could collapse into a new Great Depression and that the dollar standard could completely blow apart.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

So let's go. I want a couple of definitions. You know, like I was listening to this one guy speaking about the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. So as a classically trained economist, what does that mean to a layperson? That is the reserve currency. What status Is that why is that so good or bad? What's the thing about it?

[Richard Duncan]

It's very important that the US has the reserve currency. It means it's the main currency in the world that other countries trade in. India uses dollars to buy things from Brazil, and Brazil uses dollars to buy things from Saudi Arabia. And the reason that the dollar is the reserve currency, first of all, we won World War II and all the other countries in the world were broke and didn't have any gold. And so we pegged the dollar to gold and everybody else pegged their currency to the dollar. And so initially that was the establishment of the dollar as the reserve currency. But the reason it's remaining the reserve currency is because over the last, since 1980, the United States has had extremely large trade deficits with the rest of the world. In fact, $16 trillion of trade deficits with the rest of the world. And that that has thrown out $16 trillion into the global economy, making the trade surplus countries $16 trillion richer. And they have, literally they have $16 trillion. And with these $16 trillion, they must invest them in US dollar assets like treasury bonds or stocks or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds or corporate bonds. So this money boomerangs back into the United States and helps financ budget deficit. So this has been very advantageous to the entire world because it's allowed the rest of the world to grow much more rapidly than they otherwise could have by selling $16 trillion worth of goods to the United States that they couldn't have otherwise done. And it's been very beneficial to the United states because that $16 trillion has come back and been invested in US dollar assets, pushing up the stock market, pushing up bond prices and holding down bond yields and making it very easy for the government to finance its extremely large government.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

The point here is this. Back in. I was the Bretton woods in 1940, was it 1944, the agreement, the US dollar became the reserve currency, but it promised we would back our dollars with gold. And that's when Tricky Dick Nixon in 71 took us off the gold standard, which made a dollar US$100% credit debt. And now we print and print and print and print and print and we're now, I think the US national debt is like 36 trillion off balance sheet. Off balance sheet liabilities, including Social Security, Medicare, they estimate is around 250 trillion. And then they will say, well, Japan's in deep trouble also. So is Japan. But they're financed internally. I mean, their debt is financed by the Japanese People, the world finances America. And when they start dumping our bonds, which they're doing right now, that's what I want to find out from you. As again, a classically trained economist, worked with the IMF and the World bank, and you're sitting in Thailand, out there next to our buddies in China. I'm going, que pasa? What is going to happen, Richard, how serious? Because you wrote the book the dollar Crisis. Can it be a much bigger crisis than this?

[Richard Duncan]

Right. So I wrote the dollar crisis in 2002 and that's the one that you saw and that's how we got to know each other. And in the dollar crisis, I was very worried about these very large US Trade deficits that were destabilizing the global economy. They were blowing the trade surplus countries into bubbles like Japan and later on China. The money was boomeranging back in the United States and blowing the US Into a bubble. I said this bubble in the US Is going to pop and it's going to lead to a financial sector crisis and a severe recession and probably a collapse of the dollar standard and the dollar reserve currency status. So that collapse actually did happen in 2008, and the financial sector almost did collapse. There was a very severe recession. But the government managed to reflate the bubble with trillions of dollars of paper money creation and trillions of dollars of budget deficits. So the Great Depression that I foresaw at that time didn't happen. I just jotted down some how things have changed since then. 22 years ago at that time, the trade deficit was $450 billion. In 2002. Last year it was more than twice that much, $1.1 trillion. And the cumulative deficit, if you add them up over the years, in 2002 the cumulative deficit was $3 trillion. Now it's $16 trillion. In 2022, the U.S. government, the total debt in the U.S. was $33 trillion. Now it's $100 trillion. So three times larger. The government's debt in 2002 was 6 trillion. Now it's 36 trillion. Six times larger. The total assets of the Fed, how much money they created back then that was 700 billion. It peaked a couple of years ago at 9 trillion. Wealth in the United States in 2002 was 46 trillion. Now it's 169 trillion. And China's economy in 2002 it was one and a half trillion dollars. Now it's 18 trillion dollars. Gold was $300. Now it's $3,500. So my point is that by keeping this bubble inflated in 2008 and again in 2020, this made this global bubble so much larger than it was when I first wrote the dollar crisis in 2002. Now I think we're so we're so much more vulnerable than we were then, and it's going to be so much more difficult to keep this bubble inflated. And so I think we're now moving into a I've just published a new macro watch video today called the dollar crisis 2025. I think we're moving into this new period where the dollar is going to plunge like it did after 2002. Between 2002 and 2008, the dollar fell 41%. And that had seriously destabilizing consequences for our trading partners, for the global economy, for the US Financial markets, and ultimately the global the global financial crisis blew up entirely in 2008. So now we're in this situation where we have a much bigger bubble and much less firepower to try to combat it if the bubble pops. So now returning to your question about what's going to happen if other countries start dumping our treasury bonds. This is a real concern. So President Trump, as you know, has put up very high tariffs on all the countries in the world, but especially on China. 145% tariffs on China. And he has a plan. There is a strategy. This strategy was laid out in a paper by a person called Stephen Moran, who is the chairman of the Council of the President's Economic Advisors. And here's Morin's three steps plan. Step one is to put very high tariffs on all the countries of the world. Step two is then to threaten all of the other countries in the world to remove the United States security umbrella from them if they dare to retaliate against the high US Tariffs. And step three is then to force all of these countries to devalue the dollar into an agreement to devalue the dollar, like a new Plaza accord. This would be called the Mar a Lago Accord. Now, everyone has read this paper by now in terms of the policymakers, central bankers, the hedge funds, all the big banks. So they know that President Trump wants to devalue the dollar. This is the main part of the strategy. So the only sensible thing for anyone to do is who understands that President Trump wants to devalue the dollar is to sell US Dollar assets as quickly as they can before the dollar gets devalued. Because if the dollar gets devalued, it's already dropped 10% from January. It could drop another 30% or 40%. All of these people, especially the foreigners holding dollar assets like treasury bonds would suffer enormously from a huge devaluation. So they want to sell their treasury bonds and their other dollar assets like stocks, and this is what they've been doing. So in the recent turmoil in the stock market, we've seen a very unusual thing happen.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Normally when Richard, Richard, Richard, Richard is going too far. Okay, okay, okay. Can only take so much at a time that my brain can't handle much more. Okay, okay. So. So gold keeps going up because they're dumping Treasuries and buying gold. That's what this. That's what the central banks reportedly saying. Plus silver.

[Richard Duncan]

Right.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

And where we, America got in, Trump wants to devalue the dollar. That means make it weaker so that they'll buy more American products. Is that what you're saying? Then the rest of the world goes, he's threatening us. And what you're saying is that he says, if you don't play ball, we'll stop protecting you. Is that basically right? That's what he's saying?

[Richard Duncan]

That's what he has said, yeah.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

So as a American sitting on the border of China, on Thailand, what do you think the Chinese are thinking right now? And then we go to a break right after this, but make it quick. What do you think the Chinese are going to do now?

[Richard Duncan]

So Trump wants to put a global tariff wall around China so that China can't sell any of its goods anywhere in the world, so that China's economy will crash and China will no longer be a national security threat to the US So China must view this as an act of war, as an existential threat to the survival of the Chinese Communist Party. And they are going to retaliate very hard in ways that will be very painful for the average American.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Okay. So that with that, I'll give you everybody. I love this guy, Richard Duncan. He explains things so I can understand it on a macro, macro level. And he has a product called Macro Watch, which you can subscribe to. And the thing I like about it is Richard uses pictures, graphs, and charts so you can understand this. Well, I think what Richard is saying here, been friends for 25 years now, is the most important time we need to pay attention, because this is no longer just about money. It's about war. And we're entering into a war right now. So when we come back in a few minutes, we'll have more of Richard Duncan and talk about why Trump and tariffs and China and weakening the dollar and gold and all this. Why you need to pay attention to it. We'll be right back.

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Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back. Today our guest is a longtime friend Richard Duncan. And when I was first starting with rich dad, poor dad I saw his book in Borders bookstore before Amazon wiped him out but and his book was the dollar crisis and we're kindred souls after that because I was a student with Dr. Our book, Mr. Fuller, he wrote a book called the Grunch of Giants. G R U N C H Gross Universal Cash. ICE is how our wealth is stolen via our money, via inflation and taxes. So anyway, that's why rich dad, we said, you don't work for money, you work for assets. I save gold and silver and today Bitcoin. So Richard Duncan is saying something that's very important to me is this. If you look at history, where now we start off as a currency war, so that's the devaluing of the dollar, moving it up and down. Then we go into a trade war or tariff war, which Trump is pulling right now. And then from the trade war, we go to a kinetic war. And I was just in the South Pacific touring the battle sites like Iwo Jima and Okinawa and Guadalcanal and Peleliu. And I was out there. This time the Japanese aren't there anymore, but the Chinese are there. And the Chinese have become our adversarial person. So Richard sits on the border of China and Thailand, or China and Thailand. But every time we've had a currency war, a trade war, it goes to a shooting war, was a thing called the Boston Tea Party, 1773. It was a battle against the tariffs, the taxes on tea, which led to 1776, the American Revolution. My concern is, and what Richard's concern is, we're on the verge of going to a shooting war. Like I said, I was just out in the Pacific. Japanese aren't there anymore, but the Chinese are. And we're building huge runways and over the earth, over the curvature of Earth's radar. And we're getting prepared for war. And this next war, and the same as in Gaza and the Ukraine, this next war will not be pretty. So Richard with that again, he has a program called Macro Watch. Please, please, please subscribe to it. Because what Richard is covering now is so much. He's got more and more in his repertoire. And I strongly suggest subscribing to Macro Watch. And there's a discount for it that Richard offers. But this is not a time to be stupid or ignorant. This is a time to be paying attention to macro as well as what's happening on micro, what's happening in your pocket. So, Richard, take it away.

[Richard Duncan]

So thanks, Robert, for mentioning MacroWatch. If your listeners would like to subscribe, they can subscribe at a 50% discount if they use the coupon code crash. That's crash. And now going back to China, before the guns really Begin firing. There are so many ways that China can retaliate against the United States for imposing these very high tariffs on Chinese goods and trying to force all of the United States trading partners to also put very high tariffs on Chinese goods. China can retaliate economically and they can retaliate militarily. Here are just a few examples. China has a trillion dollars of treasury bonds. They could dump those, and that would cause U.S. interest rates to spike. Another thing they could do economically is they could actually ban all Chinese exports to the US Say, we're just not sending you any more exports. And immediately there would be shortages in the United States of practically everything. There would be consumer shortages. The consumers would freak out. There'd be very high rates of inflation. The economy would global. The supply chains would come to a standstill, and that would crash the economy. Another thing they could do economically is they could close all of the American businesses in China. Things like Tesla, all of the American banks, all of the American retailers like Walmart, Starbucks, McDonald's, all of them shut them all down overnight. Computers, Apple. And that would. And that would CR Be a very serious blow to US Corporate profits. And then they could retaliate militarily, beginning with Taiwan. They could t attack Taiwan or. Or something slightly less. They could put a enclosed Taiwan with their navy so that nothing could come in and out of Taiwan. And that would challenge the United States to see if the US Actually has the nerve to try to end this blockade. Or another military response. They could get their North Korean friends to start lobbing rockets into South Korea or even into Japan, and that would force a US Military response as well. Or another example, China could send tens of thousands of Chinese troops into Ukraine to fight alongside the North Koreans and the Russians to send Europe a message of how rough things could get if Europe actually goes along with the United States plans to put up very high tariffs on Chinese goods. So all of these things would just cause havoc throughout the global economy, crush the US Stock market, send it into a very severe recession. And even if.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Let me back up one more second, okay? You said something earlier. When they hold our Treasuries, which is our debt, if they dump that, interest rates go up. That'll destroy us. Also because we owe, what, $36 trillion and the interest payment on that would be greater than we go broke. We couldn't make that. That'd be like you having a million dollars in debt and your credit card guy says, pay it or go. You're dead. We're dead.

[Richard Duncan]

Oh, you're right.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

This is A war on all levels right now, militarily, financially, and tariffs and you know that all this stuff.

[Richard Duncan]

So if they did start dumping their treasury bonds, the Fed, that would cause the bond prices to drop and cause the bond yield, the interest rates to spike up. The Fed would have to respond by printing trillions of dollars and buying up every treasury bond that China sold, flooding the, creating a new surge of the US Money supply, which would lead to very high rates of inflation, especially at a time when we're not getting any imports from China. The trade tariffs are already going to be extremely inflationary. And then if the Fed starts creating another crisis round of quantitative easing of one or two trillion dollars, that's going to lead to inflation at least as high as we had a few years ago and perhaps higher.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

So they let's get into what can a person do? I mean, I really want everybody to subscribe to Macro. Watch. Put the word crash in there, get a discount on it. But what Richard is saying, this is the macro. If you play the casual board game, it's the micro. It's what are you going to do about it? So there's macro and then there's micro. So what I've been doing about it, Richard knows, is I own gold mines and silver and I own Bitcoin. I don't save the dollar. You know, I'm converting as fast as I can to things the US Government cannot mess with. So what else can a person do, Richard? I mean, to protect themselves in this most critical time? And I'm afraid most Americans don't know how critical it is. That's the scary part.

[Richard Duncan]

The thing about these crises is they don't just occur at one moment in time. They play out over time. And over time, what investors need to do changes as the environment changes. So how this is likely to play out, I believe is in the near term, over the next few months, six months at the latest, we're going to have much higher levels of inflation in the United States because of the trade tariffs. And at the same time, because of those policies and the other Trump policies, like Doge firing a lot of government workers and cutting spending, there is going to be a recession. So we're going to have inflation and a recession at the same time. That's stagnation. And it's going to also cause a severe fall in asset prices as US Corporate profits get hit. And as the stock market falls considerably further over the next six to nine months, we're going to start seeing some financial institutions begin to get into trouble. Like we did last time with Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. Then eventually the entire financial system collapsed in the US in 2008, and they had to be bailed out. So we're going to get to that point, and right up until that point, everyone's going to be selling U.S. stocks and U.S. assets. But when the crisis really hits and the banks start to fail as they did in 2008, then the situation is going to change because the Fed is going to jump in and start creating trillions of dollars to bail out all these banks again. And the government's going to have trillions of dollars of budget deficits to pump up the economy. So the Fed and the government working together will keep this economy from completely collapsing again, the way that they prevented the economy from collapsing in 2008 and again in 2020. But this time it's going to be different because this time is going to be more like the COVID period, but perhaps worse. Covid had global supply chain bottlenecks. And so when the Fed printed a lot of money with the supply chain bottlenecks, there was a lot of inflation. The situation is going to be the same this time. The Fed's going to be printing a lot of money to prevent a depression, but we are going to have global supply chain bottlenecks because we have this trade war with China and we can't buy any products from China. So we've got a tariff supply shock that's inflationary, and we have a demand supply shock, a demand shock that's also inflationary from the Fed, creating a lot of money. So these two things together are going to create very high rates of inflation.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Now, Richard, Richard, so what can a person do, I mean, besides ordering macro wants to understand the big picture. Micro. See, the board game behind me is about the micro. What can I do? What do I do? So, like I say, you know, I own gold mines and silver mines. I own lots of bitcoin. I'm getting away from the dollar. I'm, I'm only, I'm, I, I own cattle because people have to eat. So in inflation, I'm counting on the price of cattle to go with it. So we've got to get down to the, get out of the macro right now. Richard. But what is in the micro for these people? What do you see? Because what I see in China, right, isn't China in Syria? They're having unemployment problems and all that because it is backing up on them, right?

[Richard Duncan]

So China has a totalitarian system that they can keep everybody in check. But what Americans can do is in the near term, they can expect stock prices to fall and the dollar to fall. So if they're brave, they can short stock prices and they can short the dollar now. And, and, and also they can buy gold because gold will, will keep appreciating as the dollar falls. Now, when the crisis really explodes, the 2008, like global financial crisis, when it hits, when the banks start failing and the Fed jumps in and starts printing a lot of money again, then stocks will go up, they will rebound and the economy will stop collapsing. But because there will be very high rates of inflation, then this will also make gold keep moving further higher and it will also cause people's mortgages to vaporize. When there's high rates of inflation, it evaporates people's debt because prices go up and wages tend to go up. But the debt is fixed at fixed interest rates. So if you have a house and you have a 50% mortgage on it, and we have high rates of inflation, that wipes away your debt. It wipes away your mortgage. So you can view mortgage debt, for instance, as an investment strategy. When there's high rates of inflation, it's going to make your mortgage debt disappear. So those are things that Americans could, normal Americans could do as this crisis, this dollar crisis, 2025 unfolds.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Good, good, good, good, good. Anyway, have you, I only know what's going on with YouTube, but they have pictures from China about unemployment. That also means there's unemployment in the US Coming. Because what Trump wants to do is make, you know, maga, make America great again. He wants our jobs, he wants our factories to come back. But as you've said to me many times, it's not going to come back to the U.S. the factories will go on to lower wage countries like Vietnam and Pakistan and all that. So the person who's holding for a job or my concern is unemployment. You know what I mean? When. So let's say macro 2025 hits, what's going to happen to unemployment in both east and west and Europe?

[Richard Duncan]

Well, unemployment is going to go up in China and it's going to go up in the United States. Unemployment rate now is still very low. But that's, I think that's all about the change because the policies President Trump has announced have been so chaotic that it's really crushed consumer sentiment and business sentiment. So the consumer confidence is at record low levels nearly, and their consumers are going to spend less. And businesses don't know what to do. They don't know if the tariffs are going to be 10% or 1000% or how long they're going to last. So they don't know whether they should bring their factories back to the US or not. They're all just frozen. They're not doing anything. They're not investing. They just want to cut costs now before their revenues collapse so that their profits won't entirely disappear. So as consumers spend less and businesses invest less, businesses are going to fire people and the unemployment rate's going to move significantly higher.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Yep.

[Richard Duncan]

At that point, the Fed will begin cutting interest rates and perhaps quite quickly.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

And they'll print more money. And inflation keeps going and the rich get richer, because what inflation affects things like gold and silver to go up, but also chicken and eggs to go up. Chicken eggs and milk will go up. So that's why the average person right now is going, I don't know what's going on. You've got to do something. And so give us a little bit more on what you cover in Macro Watch, because what you have is the Macro. My cash flow board game is the Micro. What can the Individual Do? So give us one more pitch on Macro Watch.

[Richard Duncan]

Macro Watch. I've now been making Macro watch videos since October 2013. I make a couple of videos every month discussing something important happening in the global economy, focusing primarily on the US economy and what the government is doing, what the Fed is doing, what's happening with credit growth and what's happening with quantitative easing, for instance, and then translating these developments into how the asset prices are likely to be affected. So over the last couple of months, in December, I published a video called Is the Everything Bubble about to Pop? And now, of course, we can see it is. Today's video is called the Dollar Crisis 2025, explaining why the dollar is likely to lose another 30% of its value over the next couple of years and the implications of that. And so I track the most important developments happening in the global economy and explain, using charts in very simple language, what this means.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Richard, Richard, Richard, you just hit it. You just hit it. What Richard does at Macro Watch, we should change it to Suicide Watch.

[Richard Duncan]

Really, it's not that bad. Sometimes I'm bullish, but sometimes it's going up.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

When people read your thing, you have charts, what I mean, pictures, and then you explain it simply so the layperson like me can understand it. And then the next question is, what are you going to do about it? So that's why, Richard, what you do is priceless. And again, what's the. There's a discount if they put the Word crash in there, right?

[Richard Duncan]

If they, they can find Macro Watch on my website, which the, if they type in Richard Duncan economics.com Richard Duncan, economics.com, they'll be taken to my, to my homepage. And there they can hit the subscribe button and they'll be prompted to put in a coupon code. And if they type in crash, they can subscribe at a 50% discount. I mean, we're not talking thousands and thousands of dollars. This is really very affordable. And they will immediately have access to 100 hours of MacroWatch videos in the archives. And Macro Watch really tries to explain to people how the economy really works today in this modern world where money is no longer backed by gold, it's backed by nothing. This completely changes the way the economy works and the way that the government manages the economy. So the goal of Macro Watch is to teach people how the economy really works in the 21st century and all about the forces driving the financial markets, driving up the stock market and the property market, or driving them down so that they can make better investment decisions for themselves. So I upload a new video every couple of weeks. They're normally 15 or 20 minutes long. We have 30 or 40 charts, and I hope your listeners will check it out and subscribe to Macrowatch.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Richard it's priceless, priceless, because from Macro you go micro, you know, que pasa? What are you going to do about it? That's the question. And that's why, you know, I appreciate our friendship for all these years and thank you for being one of the great educators of our times, Richard. So thank you very much.

[Richard Duncan]

Thank you, Robert, and thank you for being my mentor and for your friendship over the years.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

That's mutual here. So we help each other. So I want to come back with a final word. And again, thank you, Richard, for all you do for us. Thank you.

[Richard Duncan]

Thanks, Robert.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

We'll be right back.

[Rich Dad Radio Show Ad]

Foreign.

[Robert Kiyosaki]

Welcome back and thank you for. Thank you to Richard Duncan and please remember his, his, his product is called Macro Watch. You go go to his website, Richard Duncan Economics, and put crash, and you get a 50% discount for it. It's more than the price. It's priceless because today I've never seen it so bad. You know, for the last 25 years, we knew this was coming. I hate to say this was. He kept warning all of us, but a lot of people have not listened. And now he's more terrified. I'm more terrified than ever before what's going to happen next. So this is not a time to be stupid or ignorant. This is a time to pay attention. And I appreciate all of you paying attention to the Rich dad radio show, because I'll do my best to make sure that we all get through this together. But we're going to some very, very turbulent times, possibly a global depression. And worse than that would be a war. So please take care, and we'll see you next. Rich dad radio show. Thank you for being a viewer. Thank you.

[Richard Duncan]

This podcast is a presentation of Rich Dad Media Network.