Robert Croak (1:55)

Yes, Definitely. I'm excited. 1800 companies are suing the US government for 1 billion with a B in tariff refunds. Last Friday, the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that Trump's use of the emergency powers law to impose sweeping tariffs was illegal. The story that's unfolding right now is the aftermath and it is definitely chaos.

Austin Hankwitz (2:17)

Yeah. More than 1800 companies have now filed lawsuits against the government seeking refunds on tariffs that were just declared unconstitutional. From the Wall Street Journal's analysis, we're talking about about 130 to 175 billion billion in tariffs that were collected over the last 10 months or so. Money that the Supreme Court essentially just said should have not been taken from these companies in the first place. Costco filed before the ruling even came down, trying to get in the front of the line. We just saw FedEx filed on Monday and is seeking a full refund. But that's not all of it. We've got GoPro, Goodyear, Toyota, Revlon, Barnes and Noble, Bumblebee Foods. All of these companies are in on these lawsuits.

Robert Croak (2:57)

Trade lawyers are calling this asbestos level litigation. There's no clear refund process. The Supreme Court struck down the tariffs, but didn't say anything about how the money gets returned. Justice Kavanaugh warned in his dissent that the refund process would be a mess. And Trump himself said at a press conference that companies will end up being in court for the next five years, which is crazy to me.

Austin Hankwitz (3:21)

Yeah, there's also like a secondary market that sprung up around these refunds. Before the Supreme Court ruling, companies were selling their refund rights to hedge funds for about 20 cents on the dollar. But now those refund rights worth 40 cents on the dollar, so twice as much. Which tells you the market thinks that money could be coming back eventually, but no one really knows when.

Robert Croak (3:41)

Yeah, and here's the real kicker for regular people. You paid for these tariffs too. And research from Harvard Business School found that consumers covered about a quarter of the tariff costs through higher prices. The Tax foundation estimated tariffs added about a thousand dollars per household last year alone. So where's your refund? Almost certainly not coming. The refunds go to the importer of record like Costco, Walmart, Target the companies that actually paid the tariff bill to Customs. Whether those companies pass any savings along to you is entirely up to them. And Treasury Secretary Besant basically said, don't count on it. So, Austin, what does this mean for you and your money?

Austin Hankwitz (4:21)

Well, it means a few things. Watch the companies filing these lawsuits. I think that's the most obvious. Right. Companies like FedEx, for example. If FedEx gets back even a portion of the billion dollars that they paid in tariff, that billion dollars that they get refunded goes straight to their bottom line. Boosting earnings per share, profits, things like that. Same deal with Costco, Toyota and all other companies that we had mentioned, as well as the other 1795 that we did not mention. These refunds are essentially that one time earnings boost for all these businesses. And that could big emphasis on could because we have no idea. But that could impact their stock prices.

Robert Croak (4:58)

Yeah, Goldman Sachs put out a note this week saying consumers are probably stuck with higher prices even with the ruling, because companies already baked tariff costs into their current pricing. So even if Costco does get their tariff money back, your grocery bill probably isn't going to come down anytime soon. Tariff policy creates uncertainty and uncertainty is the enemy of both businesses and investors. Stay diversified, stay patient, and don't try to trade these headlines.

Austin Hankwitz (5:26)

Geez Louise, 1800 companies. That's going to be a mess, Robert. That is just going to flood the the courts and it's wow, what a mess. Well, let's now move on to our second headline. Nothing messy about this one. Meta's 100 billion dollar chip deal with AMD On Tuesday, Meta and AMD announced what might be the biggest hardware deal in the history of computing. Meta is committing to purchase up to 6 gigawatts of AMD's instinct GPUs across multiple generations. And some analysts on Wall street are estimating that the deal could be worth up to $100 billion over five years. To put that in perspective, 1 gigawatt. Remember they said purchase up to 6 gigawatt is enough power to run a small city. And Meta again is buying six of these so that they can power their AI computing needs. All from AMD Advanced Micro Devices.

Robert Croak (6:21)

AMD CEO Lisa Su called it one of the most transformational deals in the company's history. And AMD's stock jumped 9% on the news, which we expected. Here's the twist. As part of the deal, AMD issued Meta a performance based warrant for up to 160 million shares of AMD stock. That's roughly a 10% stake in the company. But it only fully vests if AMD stock hits $600 per share. And it closed around $204 as of this filming. So Meta is essentially betting this deal will triple their stock price over time.

Austin Hankwitz (6:56)

Well, as you guys might remember, that's the exact structure amd used with OpenAI back in October. We talked about this one on the show as well. 160 million performance based warrants tied to shipment milestones and stock price targets. It's becoming AMD's playbook if you will. Right? Give your biggest customers some skin in the game. But here's the actual interesting call out in my opinion. Just two weeks ago, Meta signed a separate multi year deal with Nvidia for millions of their chips too. Which tells me that Meta is just spending tons and tons and tons of money on Capex. They don't care who it's going to. They just want some of these chips. Some data says 135 billion is going to be spent in 2026 alone in capital expenditures, all for that AI infrastructure.

Robert Croak (7:45)

Yeah, I kind of feel like Meta is saying, all right, we're opening the war chest and we're going to write all the checks it takes for us to get back to the top of the heap here in this AI infrastructure race. And they're not picking sides between Nvidia and amd. They're buying everything from everyone because they literally can't get enough computer. So here's what this means for you and your money. This deal, in my opinion, validates the AI buildout in a major way. For months, investors have been nervous about whether the hyperscalers are overspending on AI, and they're expected to collectively spend about $650 billion on AI infrastructure alone in 2026. But when you see Meta sign $100 million deal with AMD just two weeks after signing a massive deal with Nvidia, that tells you the demand for AI compute is real, it's growing, and these companies see it as existential. They're not slowing down by any stretch of the imagination.

Austin Hankwitz (8:41)

And for those AMD investors listening right now, I'm an AMD investor, I got me a ton of AMD stock. This is validation, right? AMD has been stuck in Nvidia's shadow. They control less than 10% of the AI chip market. Nvidia's got about the other 90%, give or take. But this deal, combined with the OpenAI partnership from October, now positions Advanced Micro Devices as the clear number two. Lisa Su, the CEO of amd, described it as a win win for shareholders. The warrant structure means that AMD only gives up equity if the deal is wildly successful, AKA the stock price essentially triples, which. Listen, Lisa, let me talk to you, girl. If you got my money tripling, you do whatever you want with these warrants.

Robert Croak (9:28)

Yeah, that's for sure. We both have been in AMD for a very long time, and to hear them betting that it's going to triple in the next three, four, five years. I like those odds. So let's get into our next point. Trump's $1,000 retirement match for 56 million Americans. During Trump's State of the Union address on Tuesday night, Trump made an announcement that we think flew under the radar for a lot of people. He said his administration is creating a new retirement account for roughly 56 million Americans who don't currently have access to a 401k or any kind of employer sponsored retirement plan. So it's pretty cool news. Let's dig into it.

Austin Hankwitz (10:06)

Yeah. He said, and I quote, half of all working Americans still do not have access to a retirement plan with matching contributions from an employer. To remedy this gross disparity, my administration will give these often forgotten American workers access to the same type of retirement plans offered to every federal worker. We will match your contribution with up to $1,000 each year. That sounds pretty cool.

Robert Croak (10:33)

It does. And it's modeled after the Thrift Savings Plan, which is what federal employees and military members use. The TSP is known for its low fees and simple index fund options. It's basically the gold standard of retirement plans. And under Trump's proposal, workers without a 401k would get access to a very similar account and the government would match their contributions up to $1,000 per year. That's a key factor here.

Austin Hankwitz (11:00)

Yeah, I think that thousand dollar match is awesome, Robert. But the funny part is this is not entirely new. Back in 2022, Congress passed the Secure 2.0 act, which included something called the Savers match, which was a provision where the government would provide a 50% match on up to $2,000 in annual retirement contributions for eligible workers. That was already set to kick in throughout 2027. Trump's proposal is accelerating that timeline and maybe repackaging it a little bit.

Robert Croak (11:34)

Yeah, Chuck Schumer was quick to point out that Trump is stealing Biden's playbook and accomplishments. But honestly, whether it's new or repackaged, the policy itself is something both sides should get behind because it helps so many people. So, Austin, break it down. What does this mean for you and your money?

Austin Hankwitz (11:51)

Well, yeah, this is a huge deal if you're one of those 56 million workers. You know, we got a cool episode coming out on Monday talking about what to do with your first $1,000. And we kind of talked about like, you know, do match in the 401k. But what happens if you're one of the 56 million people in America where you don't get the match in the 401k? Like what, what, what for you? So the typical American worker has less than $1,000 saved for retirement right now. And the data is clear. People are dramatically more likely to save for retirement when they have access to a workplace plan that provides a match. So if you're one of these 56 million Americans that does not get a match from your employer, now you might be getting one, which is exciting, and we hope you're already saving for retirement. But if you're not, this is a really, really good incentive to start.

Robert Croak (12:38)

Yes, if you're 25 years old and you contribute a thousand dollars a year with the government matching another thousand and you invest that in a simple S P500 index fund averaging around 10% annually, by the time you're 65 years old, you would have over $500,000. That's why we're always telling you no matter what, you can start with, just get started and stay consistent. That's just from $1,000 a year. That's the power of compound interest and exactly why we talk about starting early and often on this show.

Austin Hankwitz (13:10)

Now, there's still a ton of big questions. Who's going to be funding this? Will Congress actually pass it? Who knows, right? The White House does say some details can get implemented without Congress through the existing Secure 2.0 framework. But all the experts that we've read online blurbs about are pretty skept.

Robert Croak (13:29)

TD Cowan says they don't see a viable path to enact this plan. But here's what I'd say. Don't wait. If you don't have a 401k at work, you can open a Roth IRA today and get started right now, right now on your phone. Apps like Public.com, fidelity or Schwab let you do any of this in minutes. Start putting even $50 a month into a low cost index fund and don't wait for the government to give you permission to build wealth and just get started 100%.

Austin Hankwitz (13:59)

Now before we jump to our little breakdown into ETF central.com the best performing ETFs this week the worst performing ETFs this week Gotta give a shout out to VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

Robert Croak (14:13)

Totally Austin. Support for the show comes from vcx. That's the public ticker for private tech. For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination. And for generations, everyday Americans could be part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, and that is the US Stock market.

Austin Hankwitz (14:33)

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of these great American companies. But now that has changed. Today our most innovated companies are staying privately held longer rather than going public. The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing in getting left further and further behind while a select few reap all of the benefits. Until now.

Robert Croak (15:03)

That's why we're excited to share and introduce vcx, the Public ticker for private tech. VCX by fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech and many, many more.

Austin Hankwitz (15:22)

Visit getvcx.com for more information. That is get VC.com for more information and carefully consider the investment materials before investing, including objectives, risks, charges and expenses. This and other information can be found in the funds prospectus@getvcx.com this is a paid sponsorship. Getvcx.com super excited about this one, Robert. It's going to unlock a lot of cool innovation for a lot of people who just couldn't get in early. It's kind of funny, right? It's like you look around, you're like, man, why wasn't I an early investor in some of these OpenAI names or anthropic or, you know, I'm not saying that VCX is a part of that. This is very much me rambling now. But it's, it's kind of frustrating when you look around and you're like, you know, I'm not one of these billion dollar venture capitalists. I don't know how to do this stuff. What's so cool about VCX in our opinion, again, we're just kind of talking here is that they are really beginning to open up this asset class.

Robert Croak (16:19)

Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I love all of the tools we talk about here on the show because I feel like all of these companies are working towards leveling the playing field so the everyday investor can get involved, get in there and get a piece of the action that was once reserved just for the big funds and the wealthy people. So I love tools like this.

Austin Hankwitz (16:40)

All right Robert, let's now move the show along. We're headed over to ETF central.com one of our favorite platforms to do more research as it relates to the underlying holdings, performance and fund flows of thematic ETFs listed all around the world. What's so cool about ETF Central specifically this little call out section is we try and give you guys the, the who's who if you will and who's moving and shaking. Best performers, worst performers for the week coming in. Third place for the best performing thematic ETF this week is multi commodity up 4.5%. Second place alternative energy up about 5%. And here we go. Best performing thematic ETF this are precious metals excluding gold coming up 19.3%.

Robert Croak (17:29)

Yeah. And the three worst performers this week are EM awakening. So I'm guessing that that sector means emerging markets down three and a half percent. Cloud computing coming in at number two is down 3.5%. And the number one worst performer this week is cybersecurity down 6%. So Austin, what do you think about these for this week when we dig into these and really do the research,

Austin Hankwitz (17:57)

you know, just kind of looking at this right now, I think something that people need to keep an eye on here is that alternative energy. You know, we see a little bit of turmoil happening in the Middle east right now. We're seeing a lot of a rotation. If you go look@wallstreetfavorites.com and you look at the best performing sectors, I'll just pull it up for everyone right now so you guys can see what I'm talking about. If you go to wallstreetfavorites.com and you click on sector radar, you can see what sectors of the S P500 have performed best year to date. Energy here coming in at the second best behind basic materials. But we've got energy up 15 and a half percent year to date. Six month momentum up 22 and a half percent with the average upside per stock that's listed as a, as an energy company in the S P500 with about 8% here. But it's interesting, right, because like as you think about the different sectors that are performing well, not performing well, Energy for me right now in Q1 is just really interesting. If you're part of the Rich Habits Network, you know, I've been talking about MLPI, the NEOs, MLP, high income, that's an energy ETF. But I just think energy is really interesting right now. XLE has just gone on a run. Exxon Mobil's been going crazy. VDE is a Vanguard's energy sector there. So it's just, it's just interesting to see that, you know, one, if you're inside the Rich Habits Network, we've been talking about, about this for about a month and so you've been able to appreciate this upside. But two, who knows if it's going to slow down?

Robert Croak (19:23)

Yeah, you were definitely really ahead of this, calling out the energy sector. We've been in it for a while, but you were really adamant about you've got to get more eyes on the energy sector. So kudos to that for all of our listeners and people in the Rich Habits Network and all of you that follow the podcast because there has been just so much upside because it's no secret with, with all of this manufacturing data center and AI boom, energy is the most thing that people are afraid of that we won't have enough of to be able to meet the demand. So Austin, great job on that call out.

Austin Hankwitz (19:56)

Yeah. And then finally I'll call out this cloud computing sector segment, theme, whatever you want to call it here. Year to date performance down 17%. Right. That's because of what we've seen with artificial intelligence and these agents and being able to build applications in a moment's time versus having this, you know, subscribers to a Salesforce or a Monday.com or an Asana. A lot of these cloud computing names, these SaaS, companies that were really sexy and fun even just two years ago, they are now just getting beaten and maybe they're oversold. Hard to tell. None of you here going to make any judgments or any some call outs. But I just think this cloud computing year to date performance is also a really interesting story if you know what's going on behind the scenes. Speaking of stories, Robert, it is that time. We are going to be sharing our own favorite stories of the week. I'll let you go first.

Robert Croak (20:48)

Whoa. Okay, you caught me off guard. I will definitely go first. Let me get down to mine. So I have something to review. My number one call out. And I'm going to call, I'm going to call bull on this one is State Farm announced a $5 billion dividend back to customers. So what does that mean? They claim is that they are rewarding their customer base because of better than expected underwriting performance. But in my opinion, let's face it, auto insurance rates, I looked this up, have increased more than 50% since 2020. And I believe they got their hand caught in the cookie jar. And through pressure, State Farm decided, you know what, let's give all this money back and give everyone a little bit of a break here during these volatile times. So State Farm customers can expect roughly about a hundred dollar refund coming their way. So if you're a State Farm customer, keep an eye out. I know it's not a lot of money, but it can buy you a dinner out or maybe a little bit of groceries. So that's my number one call out. Number two for me is Amazon's $50 billion bet on OpenAI. But there's a catch. The information reported that Amazon in talks to invest up to 50 billion in OpenAI. Which would make it the single largest investor in the company's current funding round. But here's the catch. Only 15 billion would go in up front. The remaining 35 billion is conditional. Amazon only writes the check if OpenAI either goes public with an IPO or hits what they're calling an artificial general intelligence milestone. Basically saying AI that can reason at a human level across any task. So if you own Amazon stock, I think this is definitely worth paying attention to. Amazon just isn't writing a check. They're tying themselves into OpenAI using Amazon's own Trainium chips through AWS. Which means this investment also drives revenue back to Amazon's cloud business. And my third point today is global markets react to The Trump's new 15% import tariff announced just the other day. This headline definitely has the stock market spooked as fear of increased goods retaliation and the disruption of supply chains has investors worried about further uncertainty in the markets. And he gave, Trump gave 150 day window which will definitely cause a wait and see situation for the markets and will likely create longer term uncertainty which we already have a lot of in the markets as we can see right now, with everything that's going on.

Austin Hankwitz (23:20)

Appreciate those call outs. Yeah, we got a lot of Trump stuff going on right now, I guess just, you know, the, the tariff stuff, the state of the union. And I've got another thing that he talked about around the state of the union stuff in my own call outs here, so let me jump into mine. The three things I'm talking about is the S&P 500 flashing its sixth Hindenburg omen in a single month, Trump ordering tech giants to power their own AI data centers and the AI chip maker Cerebras filing for an ipo. So let's talk about this Hindenburg omen. The S&P 500 has triggered its sixth Hindenburg Omen signal in the past month which is bringing back some, some flashbacks from February of 2020. And we all know what happened to the stock market in March of 2020 when a cluster of these signals pre Covid driven sell off the Hindenburg omen. Austin, what is this you're talking about it should I care about it? It's a technical indicator, so think about nothing to do with the fundamentals, the profits. It's all about price action. This indicator attempts to flag internal weakness in the stock market. How does it identify internal weakness? It identifies internal weakness as a point in time when a significant number of stocks trading on the New York Stock Exchange are simultaneously experiencing 52 week highs and new 52 week lows. So you got a bunch of stocks trading at all time highs, a bunch of stocks trading at 52 week lows. And that divergence is what is considered weakness, a fractured weak market. Right. So historically when a bunch of these omens come together. Kind of like what we're seeing right now draws a lot of attention from traders and it's, you know, something to keep an eye on. It's been talked about though, since like October. You know, we've been having a couple of these instances for a while. I'm not going to say it's, you know, put more weight, say, oh my gosh, run for the hills. Because of course, we're long term investors, we don't care about this stuff, but just thought y' all should know, came across my radar. Next thing I want to talk about is Trump ordering these tech giants to power their own AI data centers, which, listen, man, I'm here for this. Y' all got hundreds of billions of dollars. Go, don't, don't make my electricity more expensive. Go find your own electricity. So Donald Trump has said that major tech companies that are developing AI data centers will have to cover their own electricity needs under what he has called a newly negotiated radio protection pledge. He did not specifically name companies involved or provide details on how the plan would be implemented or enforced. But Reuters reported that the White House is expected to host all these different AI companies in early March to formalize the deals. Last month we saw Microsoft unveil a plan to ensure that their data centers don't increase consumer electricity prices. And they're minimizing their water use and replenishing more water than they use. Wedbush, which is a investment bank on Wall street, has said that they are expecting other big tech organizations to follow suit very soon, given the increased scrutiny now from federal, state and local governments to address major concerns with these large scale data center buildouts. Now finally, Robert, to wrap up my radar points, we got this little Cerebras ipo. Pretty exciting. Artificial intelligence chip maker Cerebras, competing with Nvidia and amd, of course, has filed for an initial public offering. The company has been meeting with potential investors and the listing could take place as soon as April. Last month, Cerebras signed a multi year, multi billion dollar deal with OpenAI to provide them with 750 megawatts of computing power. Cerebras is also reported to be in discussions to raise about a billion dollars at a 22 billion dollar valuation. Cerebrus, you're like, guys never heard of this one? Same. It's kind of popped off out of nowhere. But they were founded in 2015 headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. They the WSE3 chip and their CS3 system, and these broke benchmark records in AI inference in training when they were released last year. Current customers include Meta and AstraZeneca. So keep an eye out on the Cerebras IPO. Could be happening as early as April.

Robert Croak (27:32)

I love your radar points. Hearing about Hindenburg, you just think of all these crazy things and then the Trump ordering these tech giants to provide their own power. I think that that's great news. If they can pull it off because it's not fair to us, why all these companies are making hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars that our power goes up. So love these radar points today and just such a great episode.

Austin Hankwitz (27:55)

Well, before we sign off, Robert, we gotta give a shout out to our friends over at Blossom. You guys know we've been talking about this tool for so long now. They have an incredible, incredible platform that's gonna help you take your investing to the next level. If you're not yet using Blossom, this one is genuinely different from their competitors. At its core, it's a beautiful portfolio tracker. You link your brokerage account from Public or Robinhood or Schwab or Fidelity. Everything syncs in automatically. You get those clean visuals, the clear performance, the dividends. Tracked all of this stuff beautifully here on your desktop or your mobile device.

Robert Croak (28:31)

Yeah, the UI alone is worth it. It's one of the few investing apps that actually makes you want to check your portfolio. Not in a stressful way, but in a. Wow, this is really clean. I love this interface. So definitely you want to check it out?

Austin Hankwitz (28:44)

Yeah. Here's the part that sold us. It's not just your portfolio, but you can follow other investors and see their real verified holdings.

Robert Croak (28:52)

Yeah, exactly. They're not just screenshots or the trust me bro portfolios. They're broker linked and verified. You can literally see when someone adds a position trims or holds, including myself and Austin.

Austin Hankwitz (29:04)

And the best part is it's a community of long term investors just like us. We're not the get rich traders. We're not trading options, we're not doing the forex. You start to understand how these long term investors actually behave. What they buy, what they ignore. The transparency is something you just don't see on other platforms.

Robert Croak (29:21)

Yeah, we're both on there. Our portfolios are on there and people can follow along in real time. It's definitely transparency done. Right.

Austin Hankwitz (29:28)

So search up Blossom in the app store, click the link in the show notes below, or just simply visit blossomsocial.com on your computer. Robert Major shout out to Blossom. Major shout out to vcx, the public ticker for private tech. A major Shout out to Wall Street Favorites.com if you know, you know. All right, Robert, let's wrap up the episode, everybody. Thank you so much for joining us on this week's episode of the Rich Habits Radar, our Friday episode of the Rich Habits Podcast, where every Friday we're coming at you with the biggest headlines impacting you and your money, moving that little green or red in your portfolio, trying to help you guys make sense of it all. If you want more context, time, analysis, perspective, any of that stuff, join the Rich Habits Network. This is our community for our biggest fans. Every Tuesday night at 8:30pm Eastern time, Robert and I hop on a zoom call with 200 and something of y' all and we just open up the playbook. Talk about the headlines, talk about our portfolios, the trades we've made, the changes we've made. You know, I just talked about and alluded to this energy thing. I made these updates a month ago. If you've been following me over there, you know the energy's been doing well. So be sure to check out the Rich Habits Network. We're still running that seven day free trial.

Robert Croak (30:43)

Yeah, it blows my mind that this episode of the Rich Habits Podcast is going to get tens and tens of thousands of people watching and listening. Yet what are you doing sitting on the sideline and not checking out the Rich Habits Network? It's amazing. It's life changing for people. We have so many cool tools, so many cool people in this network and you can join for seven days. You know, check out all the coursework, join alive and just meet all these other people that are on the same path as you are to build wealth and financial freedom. And you can join it for free for seven days. What are you waiting for?

Austin Hankwitz (31:17)

Yeah, and if you hate it, cool. See you later. No hard feelings. Thanks for listening to the show. Like it's really not that deep.

Robert Croak (31:22)

So. Right.

Austin Hankwitz (31:23)

Join us over there. We'd love to have you everybody. Thanks so much and we'll see you on Monday.

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