Loading summary
A
Hey, everyone, and welcome back to the Rich Habits podcast, a top 10 business podcast on Spotify, brought to you by Public.com by the end of this episode, you'll understand exactly how prediction markets work, why they're better than polls, pundits and headlines at telling you what's actually going to happen and how you can use them to make smarter investment decisions. Starting right now. My name is Austin Hankowitz and I'm joined by my co host, Robert Kroke. Robert is a seasoned entrepreneur with lifetime revenues of over 300 hundred million, and I'm a multimillionaire in my late twenties with a background in finance and economics. As the show name might suggest, every episode we talk about rich habits as they relate to business, finance and mindset. So, Robert, what are we talking about in today's episode?
B
In today's episode of the Rich Habits Podcast, we're talking about one of the most powerful and most underused tools available for everyday investors, and that is prediction markets. We're going to break down, number one, what they actually are, number two, why they're more accurate than almost any other source of information out there, and number three, explain how you can use them to actually get an edge with your own portfolio.
A
And this isn't some obscure corner of the Internet anymore like it was during 2021 or 2022. Polymarket, a very famous prediction market website, did $21.5 billion in trading volume last year. In 2025 and in February of this year, pioneered by the super bowl, prediction markets did a combined 18 billion between polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, whatever, $18 billion just in that one month. And just last week, the Iran conflict prediction market contracts on Polymarket topped half a billion dollars in volume. One of the largest single day markets they have ever hosted. This st going mainstream and it's going mainstream fast. And most retail investors have no idea it exists or how to even use it. So this episode, we are going to fix that. I am so, so, so excited to dig in because I feel like, again, Robert, this was a very small, weird part of the Internet, but now it's, it's becoming more prevalent and we've not yet talked about it on the show. So, Robert, why don't you kick us off by sort of setting the table of answering the question, what even is a prediction market?
B
Yeah, I'm so glad we're doing this episode because we've been about prediction markets as an edge for months and months and months for people to use it as a tool for their own portfolios. So think of it like a stock market, but instead of buying shares of a company, you're buying shares of an outcome. So, for example, will the Fed cut rates in June? Will SpaceX IPO this year? Will there be a recession in Q4? Each of those questions becomes a contract. And the price of that contract tells you the probability that the crowd, AKA the people putting real money on the line, think things will happen. Will they happen? What is the percentage? And if a contract is traded at $0.72, the market is saying there's roughly a 72% chance that that outcome occurs. We love these tools because they're just so helpful in understanding what the rest of the world is thinking of about each of those questions and outcomes.
A
Yeah. So let's like make it super simple for people to understand when it comes to purchasing an event contract on one of these prediction markets. Let's say, for example, is the Fed going to cut rates in June? I don't know what the real percentage is here, but let's call it 30%. That contract is at right now will cost you 30 cents to buy one contract. That one contract, if the Fed does cut rates in June, will turn into $1. So you spent 30 cents to make $1. And then of course you pay your platform fees and trading fees and stuff like that. But that's how to think about it. Robert did a great job of a contract is trading at like 72 cents. Right. There's about a 72% chance that that's going to come true because a hundred percent chance is that $1 outcome. So $0.72, 72% chance turns into a $1 outcome. Now what makes these prediction markets so different from just reading a poll or analyst is that people are putting their own money behind these predictions. It's not a survey where you can say whatever you want and there's zero consequences. If you are wrong with how you play these markets, you will lose money full stop. And if you're right, you will make money. So that financial incentive is what makes the signal from these prediction markets so much cleaner than anything else out there. So, Robert, let's walk into our first big idea as it relates to the prediction markets.
B
So here's the first big idea when it comes to prediction markets, and it's the one that blew my mind when I first started paying attention to prediction markets. These platforms like polymarket and Kalshi, they're essentially showing you in real time what the smart money thinks is going to happen. And this is the information that used to be locked behind Bloomberg terminals and hedge fund research desks. So let me give you some real examples. Right now on Polymarket, the odds of SpaceX going public through an IPO in 2026 are sitting at around 86%. But here's where it gets interesting. The odds that SpaceX would be valued above 1 trillion at IPO, that's been hovering around 91%. So the market is telling you it's fairly certain SpaceX will IPO in 2026 at a valuation well above $1 trillion on day one. That's incredibly useful signal if you're thinking about investing in space adjacent companies on the broader tech ecosystem. And like Austin alluded to earlier, this is real money, real people betting on an outcome. Not like the old days where you'd bet on, you know, free stocks and you had free money stock portfolios that you didn't suffer if you were wrong. So that's why I love it so much.
A
No, I think it's a great example, Robert. And something I love most about this is it sort of gives you a framework because when we talk to entrepreneurs and investors, we do this all the time and you know, they're trying to make decisions based on a gut feeling or based on what their buddy told them over at dinner. And don't get us wrong, gut instincts. And you know what your friend tells you around discounting that. But what is most important is when you can see the real probability with the real dollars behind it of an event taking place, because that begins to change the conversation. You are not guessing any more about what an outcome can be. You can actually read the room. And what's awesome about these prediction markets is it's not just about the ip. You can also see the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at every single FOMC meeting for the rest of the year. So as of right now, Kalshi has the odds of at least one rate cut by July 2026 hovering around 70%. The odds of three or more rate cuts by the end of the year is only 15%. So if you're out there saying, hey, you know, we just saw this inflation print, it was cooler than expected, the Fed's going to cut rates three times in 2026. Well, you can have that idea, but by looking at where real people are putting real money, that is only a 15% chance probability. So it allows you to have a different perspective on your own assumptions when it comes to your investing style.
B
And that matters a ton for your own portfolio because if you've loaded up on high growth rate Sensitive tech stocks expecting four or five rate cuts and the market is only pricing in maybe two, you might be positioned wrong. And this is actionable information that you can use to rebalance and calculate where you should be invested. And you can even go deeper. There are contracts on tariff policy. There are contracts on whether the US will enter a technical recession. There are contracts on geopolitical events even. All of this used to be kind of the scenario analysis that Goldman Sachs would do internally and charge institutional clients a fortune for now you can pull it up on your phone for free and know exactly what they know and have this edge on the rest of the markets. And and this is what really gets me excited because I remember early in my career the information asymmetry between Wall street and Main street was massive. I mean really massive. And prediction markets are the one tool that's actually closing the gap and making it fair for the everyday investor like you and I to be able to have the same information that the big guys have.
A
I love that breakdown. Robert, let's now jump to our second big idea as it relates to these prediction markets. Why prediction markets are so much better than other sources of information most people rely. And I know you've got a lot of strong feelings about this one.
B
Yeah, I really do because I see so many people, smart people, making financial decisions based on headlines. They see recession fears mount on CNN and they panic, sell. They see markets set to boom on Fox Business and they go all in. And both of those headlines are designed to get clicks. They're not designed to help you, the investor, make more money.
A
Prediction markets allow you to see through the noise better than the polls, the pundits and all the headlines you might see online. And this is where the really speaks for itself. Because in 2024 we had of course the presidential election and traditional polls had the race essentially a coin flip. For example, Real Clear Politics polling average had it within one or two points right up until election day. But on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, it was very different. Polymarket had Trump winning this at a 67% chance for weeks leading into the election. And as we saw, Donald Trump won the election. The prediction market was right and the polls were wrong. And it wasn't just on this top line result. Polymarket was actually much more accurate in swing states and how they were going to vote as well. Pennsylvania, the market had it leaning Trump while most polls said it was a toss up. Georgia, Arizona, Poly Market and prediction markets saw it coming a mile away. The prediction market nailed the direction on nearly every single Battleground state. And this is of course not a political, you know, episode. It just goes to show with something as important as a presidential election or politics or anything going on like that, like these, prediction markets really allow you to better understand and see the difference between signal and noise. Talking heads, pundits, headlines, and is this actually happening? Polymarket Kalshi, they help you figure things out. If is this actually happening versus a Fox News business or a CNN article saying recession, Be careful, right?
B
You have to ask yourself, why is that? Why are prediction markets better than polls? And it comes down to one word, incentives. When a pollster calls and ask you who you're voting for, there's no cost to lying, there's no cost to saying undecided when you've already made up your mind. There's no cost to telling you what you think sounds good rather than what you actually believe. But when you put $500 on an outcome on polymarket, you better believe you've done your homework and you're putting your money where your mouth is. And I also think that it's because you're getting the information from the people and not from someone or some organization that actually has a stake in the game to persuade the outcomes. That's why we love this as a tool. And that's kind of one of the key insights. Polls tell you what people say, markets tell you what people believe. And when there's a gap between those two things, the market is almost always closer to the truth.
A
That's all correct, Robert. And there's another layer to this which I think is just as important. The fact that prediction markets are self correcting in real time. So as new information comes out about a jobs report, a Federal Reserve speech, an earnings surprise, something with validity to it, the odds shift within minutes. You don't have to wait for the next poll to be conducted in two weeks from now. The market is repricing itself, constantly incorporating every piece of new data as it comes in in real time. It's like having a living, breathing probability engine.
B
So if you're someone listen to this and you're still relying on cable news and X threads to form your investment thesis, I'm not saying stop reading the news and stop following along on all these platforms. But what I am saying is check the prediction markets first. Because like I alluded to, they're reactive, they're fast, and they change within minutes. And you can see what the actual money is really saying. Then read the headlines and decide if the narrative matches the probability nine times out of ten you'll find the headline is more extreme than the actual reality. Now Austin, before we jump into our next point, I want to give a shout out to our sponsor. This episode of the Rich Habits podcast is brought to you by Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index using AI.
A
And it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type in any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. And then you can invest in that index in just a few clicks.
B
Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis and not someone else's. So go to public.com rich habits and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.
A
That's public.com rich habits paid for by Public Investing. Full disclosure in the podcast description. Now Robert, let's go over our third and final segment of this episode. As it relates to prediction markets. This is where I think the rubber really begins to meet the road as it relates to your own investments. Robert, walk our listeners through how the big players now are using this information, the probabilistic thinking around prediction markets to inform their investment decisions.
B
So every serious hedge fund, every macro fund, every family office, they all do some version of scenario analysis. They say, okay, what's the probability the Fed cuts rates? What's the probability of a recession? What's the probability that this trade deal falls apart? Then they assign probabilities to each scenario and position their portfolio accordingly. It's not about predicting the future with certainty. It's about weighing your your bets based on the most likely outcomes. And they pay teams of analysts millions and millions of dollars to do this throughout the year.
A
And that's what prediction markets give you for free today. So let's walk through a real example. Let's say you're worried about a recession. Maybe you're thinking about switching jobs, or you're sitting on a bunch of cash because you're scared to invest in the stock market ahead of a looming recession. You might be worried about if you had a polymarket market right now. The probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 is trading around 30%. That's not nothing. It's definitely worth paying attention to. But it means there's a 70% chance we don't have a recession.
B
So if you've pulled all your money out of the market because you read one scary headline, you're betting on the 30% scenario and ignoring the 70% base case. And that's useful information whether you're making career decisions, investing decisions, or just trying to figure out how cautious you should actually be right now given the market conditions. And you could apply this same logic across your whole portfolio.
A
Yeah, and we see this all the time with people inside the rich habits network messaging us in the DMS and of course here on Instagram as well. They read one scary article, one headline and they say, I gotta get outta the markets. I can't believe this. What am I do? I'm an idiot to have my money in the stock market. But we ask them, what's the probability you're assigning to that scenario, right? This headline of inflation or Fed or war or recession or like what's the probability, what's the real probability that you as an investor are assigning to that? Because that's the framework sophisticated investors use. They don't just think in certainties. I must pull my money out because this is going to happen. They think in probabilities. And now each and every one of you listening can go to Polymarket's website, Kalshee's website, or any other prediction market with enough liquidity where it makes a lot of sense and use them as tools to, to show you what the crowd thinks the probabilities on these outcomes actually is. The point is you are making an informed decision instead of a emotional decision.
B
Yeah, it always reminds me of an old saying in the business of investing that the best accounts that perform well over time are those of dead people and people that forgot their passwords because they can't and don't have these knee jerk reactions that we talk about all the time. And that really brings me to this is crowdsourced macro resource. You used to need a $50,000 a year Bloomberg terminal and a team of analysts to get this kind of probabilistic framework. Now you can pull up polymarket on your phone and get a better read on geopolitical risk than most financial advisors are giving their clients. And that's a massive shift and most people are sleeping on this. Let me say that again. Go right to your phone, it's free. And you can get all of this information right before your eyes in seconds to help you better decide what is your move for your money.
A
So Robert, let's wrap all this up. Here's what we want our listeners to walk away from this episode with. Number one, prediction markets like Polymarket and CalSHI show you real probabilities backed by real dollar bills. This is the signal. This is not noise. This is not headlines. These are not tweets. It's not your uncle's opinion at the Thanksgiving dinner. If you want to know what's likely to happen, right, whether the Fed's going to cut interest rates, if we're going to have a recession, if SpaceX is going to IPO at a whatever trillion dollar valuation, check the prediction markets first. It will take 30 seconds.
B
And number two, these markets are more accurate than polls and pundits because the people participating actually have skin in the game. Real money filters out the noise, the bias and the spin. The 2024 election proved this on a massive scale. Polls tell you what people say, markets tell you what people believe. So start paying attention to the gap in those two things and I'm going to roll right into number three. Now, Austin, you now have access to the same kind of probabilistic thinking that hedge funds use to manage billions of dollars for free and right in your hand. Use prediction market odds to stress test your investment assumptions. If you think rate cuts are a sure thing, check the market. If you think a recession is inevitable, check the market. Position your portfolio based on probabilities, not emotions or headlines.
A
And Robert, I'll throw you guys a little bonus one here. Number four, which we didn't really talk about, but I think this is just as important. Don't be reckless with this type of stuff, right? Prediction markets are a research tool. They are not a crystal ball and they are certainly not a casino. Use them alongside your other research tools like wall street favorites.com as you guys might remember, Robert and I have built wallstreetfavorites.com we're really to unveil this new awesome platform to the world. So go check out wallstreetfavorites.com more on that in the show notes below. But remember, most importantly, probability is not certainty. Always leave room for the other outcome to take place.
B
What a cool episode, Austin. And great shout out for Wall Street Favorites. Make sure you guys check it out. We are so proud of this tool. And again, this is a great way to level the playing field for everyday investors like us. And I am so excited for everyone to check it out. Out. Let's get into the Q A. Yeah.
A
If they are subscribed to the newsletter, they will have heard of wallstreetfavorites.com last week, but we're now unveiling it right here to you guys. We'll, we'll share more details over time. And if you're inside the Rich Habits Network, you would have heard about this weeks ago. We shared this tool inside the Rich Habits Network with our biggest fans of the show mid February. So Wall street favorites.com go check it out. More information coming soon. But Robert, while we're talking about tools here and things that we like using, gotta give a shout out to blossomsocial.com if you're not already using Blossom. This platform, this tool is genuinely different. At its core, it's a wonderful portfolio tracker. You just link your brokerage account, everything syncs automatically. You get those clean visuals, performance dividends tracked automatically. All the fun stuff you care about. But oh my gosh, Blossom is such a cool platform to be on.
B
Yeah, the UI alone is worth it. It's one of the few investing apps that actually makes you want to check your portfolio. And not in a stressful way, but in a while. This is clean kind of way.
A
Yeah. 100 and here's another part that sold us on it. It's not just your portfolio. You can follow other investors here, the real time holdings inside of it. It's none of these trust me bro, portfolios with screenshots like you are actually looking at other people's real portfolios, including myself and Roberts. And the best part, it's a community of those long term investors just like us, not those get rich quick traders.
B
And we're both on there, our portfolios are on there and people can follow along in real time. It's transparency done. Right? Right. So if you want a clean portfolio tracker, a genuinely great user experience, and a way to learn from real investors with real money, make sure to check out Blossom. It's free, easy to use and honestly one of the best investing apps we use. Search Blossom in the app store and there's a link in the show notes below or visit blossomsocial.com on your computer.
A
So our first question comes from Instagram. Again, if you have a question for us, DM us on Instagram at Rich Habits Podcast. We're coming up on 40,000 followers. Robert, that's pretty exciting.
B
Let's go.
A
Exciting. You can also email us your questions at rich habits podcast gmail.com or you can join the Rich Habits Network and ask it face to face over a Zoom call. We host a two hour live stream every Tuesday night on Zoom with our Rich Habits Network participants. Several Hundred of y' all pop in there and ask questions. It's. It's a good time. So our first question on Instagram is coming from Marky. Marky says, hi, Austin and Robert. I'm Marky. I'm 30 years old, and I'm a longtime listener of the show. Thank you both for all the value you put out. It's genuinely helped me take control of my investing. Marky says, I've maxed out my Roth IRA for 2025, and I currently have VGT, Voo, Vti, Qqq, Spyi, and Ibit. Given the overlap between some of these ETFs, would you consider consolidating? I'm also debating trimming some of my bitcoin. I'm comfortable staying aggressive at my age, but I want to be strategic. After a recent episode, I've also wondered about adding AIQ or a small allocation to some precious metals. I know Robert's talked about GLD and SLV for diversification. Would love your perspective as I think about my 2026 contributions. It's a cool one. Robert. Well, you were mentioned by name here, so maybe you want to kick this one off.
B
Yeah, I will. Thank you. Marky, I love what you're doing. I think you have a really good portfolio started. I do like the idea of adding some aiq, gld, and slv, and I would maybe take some of that from VGT and take maybe 10% to VGT and get that down to 22% and then do kind of a mix between AIQ and GLD and SLV with that 10%. But other than that, I like it, and I don't think I would trim back the 15% in iBIT. But if you were, you could trim that back to 10% and use that additional 5%. So you'd have 15% to split between GLD, SLV, and AIQ. That's probably the move I would make, and I really think that's a smart play to give you more diversification and less overlap between the S and P, the NASDAQ and some of the. The big tech companies.
A
Yeah. And so for everyone listening, that's like, where all these percentages come from. So in our question from Marky, Marky shared their percentage weightings. I did not share it in the question, but Robert was referencing them, so I'll share them now so everyone's on the same page. Marky's got 32% in VGT, 22% VOO, 17% in QQQ, 15% in IBIT, 7% in spyi and 7% in VTI. Percentages get really confusing though, so I didn't mention it. But Robert, I appreciate that breakdown. If I were in your shoes, Marky, I would consider consolidating. At the end of the day, you probably don't need VOO in vti. I would choose one or the other. I enjoy your SPYI allocation specifically because it allows you to dollar cost average every single those monthly distributions back into your overall portfolio. You can argue tax efficiency or not whatever inside of an already tax advantaged account, but I still think the dollar cost average component is really important. I'm all here for having 32% into a VGT. I think it's great you've got a bunch of Voo. I think it's great you got some QQQ. In my humble opinion. I think QQQ and VGT overlap a ton. I would probably just pick one or the other. Perhaps you just roll, you roll your VTI into V, you've got your vgt, you perhaps roll your QQQ into VGT or vice versa. And to Robert's point, yeah, if you want to add some gold or some AIQ, that's cool. Having 15% into Bitcoin is a little rich for me. I've got closer to five myself in my own Roth. You know, maybe you do begin to, to pull back that, that weighting away from 15% closer to 10 or 5%. But at the end of the day, if you're over here thinking about your 20, 26 allocations, like you don't need to sell anything. I love all this stuff. Just don't. That's the thing when people think about active management and you know, building their own portfolio from scratch, especially when it comes to, you're 30 years old, you got 35 more years of investing ahead of you, Marky. You don't need to be selling and buying and flipping and trading and just, just add more to what you want to add more to. You can add all of 20, 26 contributions to QQQ or VTI or VOO or any of these and you're going to be just fine. So let's like my biggest takeaway for you here, Marky, is to not overthink it because you are doing all the right things right now automatically, literally just by buying whatever. This is how you've built it out so far. You will be a multimillionaire by just maxing this out every single year, regardless. So our next question comes from Jason on Instagram. Jason says, hi, Robert and Austin I'm a big fan of what you guys do and how you think. I wanted to throw this one at you. My wife and I are expecting in September. Congratulations. That's awesome. That's amazing. Babies are miracles. That is so cool, Jason. Jason says we have a general flexible spending account through her employer, but it only has 800 in it from open enrollment. Not nearly enough to cover labor and delivery. Is it a plausible thing to use the qualifying event of our child's birth in September to elect more money into the FSA at that time, then use that newly elected pre tax money to pay for immediate medical bills that get charged on under our child's name, like vaccine and delivery care on their birthday? If it's even possible. My main concern is losing the extra FSA money elected at the qualifying Life event of the birth over some rule I'm not aware of or planned timing. This seems like the kind of optimization you guys are great at. So I wanted your thoughts on paying for as much as possible with that sweet, sweet pre tax money. Thanks for all you do. You Jason. All right, Jason, again, congrats on the baby in September. That is incredible. Let's walk through this together. Robert. So just we're on the same page. A Qualifying Life event. Q L E is a good acronym for that. Like the birth of your child does allow you to make a mid year FSA change. But there's a very important catch. You can only change your FSA election to cover expenses going forward. And the change to typically needs to be made within 30 days of the event. Also, the funds you elect after the birth can't retroactively cover the labor and delivery costs from that same day in most plan designs. Another thing to consider is that FSA elections at a qualifying life event are what's considered prospective, meaning your employer will divide your new annual election across the remaining pay periods of the plan year. So if you collect a extra $2,000 in September with only four months in the plan year left, you'd receive only about $667 per month added to your FSA, not the full $2,000 immediately. Now here's what is FSA eligible, right? Baby expenses like vaccines, pediatric visits, things of that nature that are incurred after the birth would absolutely be FSA eligible. But those are smaller dollar amounts, of course than the actual deliver of the bab. Win for labor and delivery is actually what you already have elected the FSA use It now rule means your full annual election is available on day one of the plan year, even if you haven't contributed that much yet. So if your wife elected $800 for the year, that full $800 is available right now to use toward any eligible expenses. But you guys already know that. You're trying to figure out how do we get more so Robert, what's what, what should they consider?
B
Yeah, I think the better play is if you want to maximize pre tax dollars for the birth, the most reliable path would be to increase your wife's FSA election at the next open enrollment, which would likely be for the 2026 plan year. And the max contribution for 2025 is $3,300 per person. Also, something to look into is does your employer offer an HSA paired with a high deductible health plan? HSAs have a higher contribution limit normally 4300 for an individual individual and 8550 for a family in 2025 and you can roll those over forever and the funds are yours permanently. That's the gold standard for medical expense optimization and as far as I know, that would be the hack you should implement.
A
Again, congratulations Jason. I think this is awesome and hopefully some of our perspective advice here can help you sort of mold your strategy going forward in 2026. Now Robert, our final question comes from Maurice on Instagram. But before we give Maurice his flowers, we got to give a shout out to neos Investments because NEOS offers ETFs that seek high levels of monthly income with a keen focus on tax efficiency while providing core portfolio exposure across equities, fixed income, real estate, cryptocurrency, and cash alternatives like t bills. NEOs ETFs may be especially interesting for investors looking to generate tax efficient monthly income inside their investment portfolios. NEOs ETFs may serve as a compelling, incompetent, focused alternative or complement to many of the investments already inside of your portfolio.
B
So if you're looking to add passive income focused ETFs to your portfolio, consider learning more about NEOs ETFs@neosfunds.com and as with all investments, investors should carefully consider their investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of NEOS exchange traded funds before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, please visit neosfunds.com Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest. An Investment in NEOs ETFs involves risk and possible loss of principle. There's no guarantee the NEOs ETFs will make monthly distributions, and the amounts may fluctuate from month to month. Cryptocurrency is relatively new to the market and has its own specific risks. NEOs ETFs are distributed by 4 Side Fund Services LLC.
A
So our final question, as I mentioned before, comes from Maurice on Instagram. Marie says, hey, guys, I the podcast and I'm so interested to learn more. I'm 24 years old, I've got 50 grand saved in my bank account and I know it's bad to just have it sit there in cash. So can you please tell me what do I do with this $50,000? Ooh, Robert, what a blank canvas. I love it. What would you do at 24 with $50,000 in cash in your bank account?
B
Wow. First and foremost, I would get rid of of it. I would open an account@public.com, get the Roth IRA set up. I would max out the Roth IRA at 24 years old. You can get up to $7,500 in there right away. I would split that up between three or four of these ETFs we talk about like Voo, QQQ, AIQ, and maybe some VTI. So you're maxed out there. I would get two to three months of my bills set aside in that emergency fund fund, also at public, in a High Yield cash account. And then I would have the traditional brokerage account set up and I would get moving on that one, similar to the Roth ira, but get the rest of the money put into those funds in a traditional brokerage account. So you've got your High Yield Cash account, which is your emergency account. You've got your Roth maxed out year one, and the rest in your traditional brokerage account account, which we call the bridge account. And if you wanted to spice it up a little bit, I'd probably put three, four or five grand of that into Bitcoin, which you can also do through public.com that's the playbook I would use at 24 years old to get my money working as hard for me as I work to get it.
A
Yeah, I like that. So in order, right, Number one, emergency fund, because there's no reason to invest if you don't have that rainy day fund, that cushion between you and life. You've got a ton of money. I would like to see 10,000 thousand into that high Yield cash account. Emergency fund. That's probably three or four months for you there. So go take $10,000 there. Now what I want you to do is retroactively max out your 20, 25 Roth IRA. That's $7,000. Then I want you to max out your 20, 26 Roth IRA. That's $7500. So now this $50,000 quickly turns into 40,000 after the emergency fund and then 25,500 after you've maxed out 20, 20 Roth IRA. If you want to do some VOO, QQQ and BTCI in that Roth IRA, call it 60, 30, 10. Rock and roll. I think that's a great breakdown. Super simple, super easy. If you want to do 100V, O O, 100VTI, like whatever, like, it doesn't matter what it's invested into, as long as it's invested into low cost index funds that track the S P, the nasdaq, the Dow Jones over a long period of time. So now we've got 25 grand to play with. If I were you, I would absol to now dollar cost average. I would not put all $25,000 right now straight into this account. You could deposit it in the cash. But do not just go, boom, put it all into VOO tomorrow, or boom, put it all into QQQ tomorrow. A rule Robert and I talk about when it comes to investing a large sum of money, specifically a large portion of your net worth at one period of time, you should break it up between a couple weeks or a couple months.
B
Months.
A
So yeah, you're young, you're going to go up into the ride over a long period of time. I get that. But I'd much rather see you take this $25,000 and buy, I don't know, Robert, $5,000 of Voo with it every single month or $10,000 of Voo with it every single month. Give yourself the opportunity to see what it's like to dollar cost average. Get in that routine. There's, you can do the investment plans on public. They got the generated assets. They got a lot of tools over there for you to ensure you're doing this correctly. But I would give yourself a head start here with the dollar cost averaging. It's going to help you build that investing muscle. So you say, oh, it's Friday, I got to go buy $500 of V or, oh, it's the first day of the month. I got to go put $10,000 into the NASDAQ or whatever it might be for you, Maurice. That's my advice. That's what I do. And I'd keep stacking this cash. I don't know how you got your hands on $50,000 at 24. I didn't have $50,000 at 24. So congratulations. That is incredible.
B
And the only thing I'll add to that wonderful breakdown. Austin is Maurice Join the Rich Habits Network. It is an awesome place for someone like you that's getting started to keep learning, keep stacking and really understand the playbook and the changes that occur over time when investing.
A
Everybody, thanks so much for joining us on this week's episode of the Rich Habits Podcast where we talk about prediction markets and why they actually matter to you. Please, if you like the episode, consider sharing it with a friend. Leaving us a five star review on Spotify, voting in the poll on Spotify, leaving us a comment on Spotify. And please do us a favor, go To Wall Street Favorites.com there's gonna be a link in the show notes below. Poke around a little bit, explore a little bit and give us some feedback. Send us an email that says, hey, I love this about Wall Street Favorites but I want this feature too. Or hey, I didn't like this about it. I don't understand it. So we can make it a better product for you guys in the Future. Again, that's wallstreetfavorites.com cannot wait about this one. It's going to be so much fun. Robert Building Wall Street Favorites for every listener of the show. And as always, please consider joining us inside the Rich Habits Network. Thanks everyone and we'll see you on Thursday. Sam.
Rich Habits Podcast
Episode 160: Why Prediction Markets Matter To You
Date: March 9, 2026
Hosts: Austin Hankwitz (A) & Robert Croak (B)
This episode unpacks prediction markets: what they are, why they can offer sharper insight than polls or headlines, and how investors can use them to make smarter decisions. Austin and Robert explain how these markets have exploded in volume and influence, empowering everyday investors with tools previously reserved for Wall Street insiders. The episode is structured around three central ideas:
Q&A segments answer listener questions about portfolio structure, optimizing FSAs for new parents, and deploying cash as a young investor.
[02:24]
Memorable Quote:
“This isn’t some obscure corner of the internet anymore… Polymarket did $21.5 billion in trading volume last year.” — Austin (01:11)
[04:49-07:23]
Memorable Quote:
“Prediction markets… show you in real time what the smart money thinks is going to happen. This is the information that used to be locked behind Bloomberg terminals and hedge fund research desks.” — Robert (04:49)
Application for Listeners:
[08:44-12:14]
Notable Quote:
“Polls tell you what people say. Markets tell you what people believe… The market is almost always closer to the truth.” — Robert (10:40)
Takeaway:
[14:24-17:52]
Memorable Quote:
“You used to need a $50,000 a year Bloomberg terminal and a team of analysts… now you can pull up Polymarket on your phone and get a better read on geopolitical risk than most financial advisors are giving their clients.” — Robert (17:01)
Practical Steps:
[17:52-19:57]
Useful Links from the Episode:
This episode offers a comprehensive, actionable introduction to prediction markets—why they’re powerful, where they fit into your investing routine, and how to put them to work for smarter, calmer money management.