Allbirds to NewBird AI, Ozempic Partners w/ OpenAI, & Sydney Sweeney

Summary

---

Rich Habits Podcast – "Allbirds to NewBird AI, Ozempic Partners w/ OpenAI, & Sydney Sweeney"

Hosts: Austin Hankwitz & Robert Croak
Date: April 17, 2026
Guest: Ron Santella (CEO and Portfolio Manager, Equable Shares)

---

Episode Overview

This Friday episode of Rich Habits Podcast delivers a rapid-fire analysis of three major financial headlines shaping the week: Allbirds' wild pivot to AI, the Trump-Powell Fed drama, and Novo Nordisk's sweeping partnership with OpenAI for drug discovery. The hosts dissect what these stories mean for investors’ portfolios and broader market trends, before welcoming Wall Street veteran Ron Santella for an in-depth take on the legitimacy of the recent market rally. The show concludes with personal radars and quick-hitting financial stories, blending insightful debate with the hosts’ signature banter and practical investing advice.

---

Main Stories & Discussion Points

1. Allbirds' Pivot from Shoes to AI – Rebranding to New Bird AI

Segment Start: 00:57

• What Happened: Once the darling of Silicon Valley sneaker culture, Allbirds has sold its shoe business and is pivoting to an AI infrastructure play, renaming itself New Bird AI.

  • The move involved selling all IP, including brand name and designs, to American Exchange Group for $39 million ([03:07]).
  • Company raised $50 million in convertible debt to enter the AI server rental market—peanuts compared to giants like Nvidia and AWS ([03:33]).
  • Stock spiked 582% in a single day, from $2.49 to $16.99 ([01:50]), despite the company’s market cap being down more than 95% from its IPO peak.

• Memorable Moments & Quotes:

  • “Allbirds is trying to show up to the arms race with a pocket knife.” —Austin ([03:33])
  • “A $50 million investment is a drop in the bucket. This is by any measure a Hail Mary by Allbirds.” —Reading from Analyst Dylan Carden ([03:33])
  • “Eco-friendly brand is still 6Xing on a name change. It just doesn’t make sense.” —Robert ([05:18])
  • “Bubbles don’t end because of one hype story, pops. They end when the flood of hype stories stop working.” —Robert ([05:18])

• Host Insights:

  • Both hosts view the pivot as a textbook sign of bubble behavior.
  • Compare it to the days of “crypto pivot” manias, where companies jumped on the latest tech bandwagon for short-term market gains.
  • Strong warning to avoid speculative small-cap AI trades; stick with infrastructure ETFs and established “picks and shovels” like Nvidia and data center players ([06:37]).
  • Recommended tickers: DTCR (Global X Data Center), POWU (Vista Shares Electrification Super Cycle).

---

2. Trump Threatens Fed Chair Jerome Powell - Rate Cuts & Market Instability

Segment Start: 06:37

• What Happened: Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn’t resign at the end of his chairmanship, amidst an ongoing DOJ investigation into Powell’s actions ([07:44]). While Powell’s term as chair ends in May, he can remain as a board member until 2028 ([08:02]).

• Key Political & Market Dynamics:

  • Removal of a Fed chair is heavily protected by law; currently before the Supreme Court in a separate case ([07:44]).
  • Trump’s suggested replacement, Kevin Warsh, faces opposition and possible Senate resistance unless Powell probe is resolved.
  • Markets are jittery: Policy paralysis or a politicized Fed could mean higher yields, stronger gold, weaker equities ([09:27]).
  • “The markets have been trained to ignore the Trump Powell drama. And this week should end all of that.” —Robert ([10:53])
  • Polymarket odds show a 41% chance of zero rate cuts in 2026—up massively from a few months prior ([09:27]).

• Portfolio Takeaways:

  • Own gold as a hedge against any crisis of Fed independence ([10:53]).
  • Tilt toward high-quality bonds and dividend aristocrat equities for stability while avoiding speculative growth expecting rate cuts ([10:53]).

---

3. Novo Nordisk’s OpenAI Partnership – AI in Pharma Goes Mainstream

Segment Start: 12:41

• What Happened: Pharma giant Novo Nordisk (Ozempic/WeGovy) announced a sweeping deal to use OpenAI’s models company-wide for R&D, manufacturing, and commercial operations, aiming to accelerate drug discovery ([15:10]).

• Trends and Industry Implications:

  • Moderna, Sanofi, Formation Bio also employing OpenAI tech ([15:41]).
  • Nvidia provides GPUs to power these AI drug discovery workloads—AI is infiltrating every layer of big pharma.
  • “Every one of these partnerships...runs on GPUs...Nvidia’s healthcare AI business is quietly one of their fastest-growing verticals and no one is talking about it.” —Robert ([16:19])
  • “When a company that's already winning decides to put AI at the center...a signal about where the entire industry now is headed.” —Austin ([17:09])

• Portfolio Implications:

  • Bullish on Big Pharma, especially those with large R&D budgets—Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Merck, Novo Nordisk ([16:19]).
  • Nvidia’s leadership in AI hardware places it at the center of this healthcare revolution ([16:19]).

---

4. Market Rally Analysis with Ron Santella (Equable Shares)

Segment Start: 19:19

• Ron’s Wall Street Take: Recent “V-shaped” market recovery is reminiscent of 2025, with a sharp drop followed by a swift bounce. Veteran investors are focusing on fundamentals and earnings over geopolitical noise ([19:57]).

  • “For the veteran Wall Street investors, they know ultimately the market is about fundamentals.” —Ron ([19:57])
  • Earnings revisions are stronger than the 10-year average, helping explain market resilience ([20:42]).

• Fed Transition and Interest Rate Outlook:

  • Ron expects possible continuity in cutting rates but emphasizes the importance of Fed independence in maintaining market confidence ([24:03]-[24:32]).
  • Probability of zero rate cuts in 2026 doesn't surprise Ron, given solid labor and economic growth ([25:31]).

• Portfolio Strategy – Rethinking 60/40:

  • With more access to alternatives, investors are moving beyond a 60/40 bonds/equities split ([26:23]).
  • “Whether you’re choosing...an ETF like we have with Hedg...or private markets, you’re not forced to make that 60/40 choice today.” —Ron ([26:23])
  • Ron recommends adding 20–25% to alternatives or liquid alternatives for better diversification ([26:23]).

• About Hedg (Equable’s Fund):

  • Hedg is a “beta strategy” on S&P 500, using options overlays to cut volatility by 50% and protect capital during downturns ([28:01]).
  • Evidence cited that missing just five of the best days in the market over 20 years costs an investor 40% of potential performance ([30:07]).
  • “We believe investors should stay invested in the market...time in the market beats timing the market.” —Ron ([30:07])

---

Radar Points – Quick Fire Insights

Segment Start: 34:18

Robert’s Radar

• Meta to Surpass Google in Global Digital Ad Revenue: Meta (Facebook/Instagram) set to overtake Google by 2026 based on eMarketer projections; Meta’s automated ad suite gaining rapid adoption ([34:29]).
• Buy Now, Pay Later at Coachella: Over 60% of festival attendees split their ticket costs with installment plans; hosts warn against financing lifestyle expenses ([34:29]).
  • “If you can't afford to go, don't put it on installments moment and don't put it on credit cards.” —Robert ([34:29])
• Live Nation/Ticketmaster Monopoly: Live Nation faces antitrust trial for abusive ticket fees—now totaling up to 30% of ticket cost ([34:29]).

Austin’s Radar

• Broken Spring Housing Market: Existing home sales down 3.6% in March; affordability continues to worsen, with a single 25bps jump in rates pricing out 1.4 million Americans ([40:14]).
• RFK Jr., Peptides, Hims & Hers Surge: FDA may deregulate 12 peptides—potentially a huge win for Hims & Hers, which positioned itself for a regulatory unlock ([40:14]).
• American Eagle’s “Sid for Short” Sydney Sweeney Campaign: The campaign dramatically boosted sales and customer acquisition, doubling the stock price; celebrity branding is a powerful stock catalyst ([40:14]).

---

Notable Quotes

• “Bubbles don’t end because of one hype story...they end when the flood of hype stories stop working.” —Robert ([05:18])
• “Time in the market beats timing the market.” —Ron Santella ([30:07])
• “We want to be in that stay rich business...For people who want to preserve their capital, Hedg is a vehicle designed for that.” —Ron Santella ([33:47])
• “When a company that's already winning decides to put AI at the center of their operation, that’s a signal about where the entire industry now is headed.” —Austin ([17:09])
• “Please people, if you can't afford to go, don't put it on installments moment and don't put it on credit cards. This is not going to fare well for your future.” —Robert ([34:29])

---

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Allbirds/AI Pivot: 00:57 – 06:37
• Trump vs. Powell/Fed Drama: 06:37 – 12:24
• Novo Nordisk/OpenAI & Healthcare AI: 12:41 – 17:30
• ETF Central Recap: 17:57 – 19:19
• Ron Santella Interview – Market Rally Analysis: 19:19 – 34:18
• Personal Radar Points (Meta, Coachella, Housing, Hims, American Eagle): 34:18 – 44:30

---

Closing Insights

• Both hosts repeatedly emphasize discipline over speculation: embrace diversified, quality assets, and dollar cost average.
• Caution is highlighted for meme-like runs in small-cap AI names—stick to the infrastructure and “picks and shovels.”
• Long-term investing wins, even amidst the volatility and headline noise—“time in the market beats timing the market.”
• The episode delivers a mix of actionable intelligence, humor, and perspective from both emerging and veteran investors.

---

For further insights, free analysis, and live event registration, visit the Rich Habits Network at WallStreetFavorites.com or join the Rich Habits newsletter.

---

Transcript

[Indeed Sponsored Jobs Announcer]

When you need to build up your team to handle the growing chaos at work, use Indeed Sponsored Jobs. It gives your job posts the boost it needs to be seen and helps reach people with the right skills, certifications and more. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit@ Indeed.com podcast. That's Indeed.com podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for Indeed Sponsored

[Red Bull Summer All Day Play Announcer]

Jobs Ready to soundtrack your summer with Red Bull Summer All Day Play? You choose a playlist that fits your summer vibe the best. Are you a festival fanatic, a deep end dj, a road dog, or a trail mixer? Just add a song to your chosen playlist and put your summer on track. Red Bull Summer All Day Play Red Bull gives you wings. Visit red bull.com brightsummerahead to learn more. See you this summer.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Welcome back to the Rich Habits Radar, a Friday episode of the Rich Habits Podcast where every Friday morning we're coming at you with the biggest headlines impacting you and your money. This episode is brought to you by vcx, the public ticker for private tech. My name is Austin Hinkwitz and I'm joined by my co host Robert Croak. The three things sitting at the top of our Rich Habits Radar this week include Allbirds AI rebrand, Trump threatening to fire Jerome Powell and Ozempic owner Novo Nordisk partnering with OpenAI for drug discovery. And be sure to stick around to the end where we're joined again by the legend himself, Ron Santella, the CEO and managing partner of Equable Shares, to get his veteran perspective on this recent 10 day market rally and see if it's legit or if it's just a bunch of pixie dust. All right, Robert, let's dig into our first story.

[Robert Croak]

Well, the first story should keep everyone's attention because we're going to talk about allbirds. We're we all know them as the eco friendly wool sneaker brand that once dressed almost all of Silicon Valley. And they announced on Wednesday that they're just changing its name to New Bird AI and pivoting its entire business to buying high end servers equipped with AI chips and renting out access on those chips and servers. This is crazy. And the news sent shares up 582% and a single day from Tuesday's close of 249 to 16.99. Austin, this is a crazy one.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

It's definitely crazy because this is the same company that went public in 2021 at a 4 billion dollar valuation, became the unofficial shoe to what Robert was alluding to of the tech industry. And then they just lost it all. Their stock price I think was down like, I don't know, 95, 98% since all time highs back when they first IPO'd heading into this week. Before this, pivot was only $40 million. And the reason they now need a new name in the first place is because they had to sell their old one just to make some money.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, they struck a deal last month and Allbirds sold all of its ip, including the brand name and the shoe designs to brand licensor American Exchange Group for $39 million. So from billions, it and everyone rushing in to buy their stock, all the way down to 39 million. And American Exchange Group's other brands include Ed Hardy, Arrow Souls, which tells you exactly which kind of bargain bin acquisition this really was.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Yeah, so to fund this AI pivot, we've seen the stock go up like crazy. So, so what really happened here? The company went out and they raised $50 million in convertible debt from an institutional investor, which for context, like 50 million? That doesn't sound like a lot. It's not. 50 million in the AI infrastructure world is like peanuts. Weave is spending 35 billion this year. Nebius is spending 20 billion this year. Allbirds is trying to show up to the arms race with a pocket knife. Analyst Dylan Carden at William Blair put it perfectly in this note that he published to his clients. And I quote a $50 million investment as a drop in the bucket. This is by any measure a Hail Mary by Allbirds.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, it's crazy. You go from shoe company to AI company. I guess I might pivot from finance to becoming a piano consultant on piano lessons. I don't know, but it's just crazy. And this is the same playbook we saw during the crypto frenzy when an electric bike maker, a nail salon chain, a Japanese hotel operator, and even a Florida toy maker all raised tens of billions of dollars by rebranding as crypto treasury companies, most of which now have collapsed alongside with the obscure tokens they bought during the hype. And pivot that they did.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Yeah, even after this massive pop that Allbirds experienced, the shares of stock are 90% from that 2021 IPO. Shareholders still have to approve the asset sale to American Exchange Group. The financing, the name change, all that stuff. The meeting's taking place on May 18. That's the big day for all Birds. New bird. Who Bird. What the heck Bird. This is crazy bird. Get me a big bird, right? Get me out of here. Some Sesame street type stuff. Robert, what does this mean for you and your money?

[Robert Croak]

It means I can't stop laughing because it's so true. I watched yesterday everybody pile into the stock and there's going to be some winners that are like, all right, we're going to play this meme rally all of a sudden. But this really is the clearest bubble signal of the year so far. When struggling companies can 6x their stock in a single day just by slapping AI in front of their name and raising a rounding error's worth of capital relative to what actual players are spending, you are watching peak bubble froth in real time. So be very careful with small cap AI names right now. The Russell 2000 has a lot of companies that are one press release away from pulling an allbirds type situation. Bubbles don't end because of one hype story, pops. They end when the flood of hype stories stop working. An eco friendly brand is still 6Xing on a name change. It just doesn't make sense. When these pivots stop rallying, that's the signal. The rotation out of speculative AI names is starting. And most importantly, stick with the picks and shovels trade Nvidia, the hyperscalers, utilities powering the data centers, power generation companies, the actual infrastructure layer. These are the companies that benefit regardless of which headline chasing zombie retailer pivots next.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Yeah, Robert, I think we were talking about some of those in the Rich Habits Network and I even think we mentioned them on a recent podcast episode. But anyway, if you're confused, DTCR is the Global X Data Center Digital Infrastructure ETF that's up 25% year to date. Pow. You is the. Let's see here. This is the Vista Shares Electrification Super Cycle ETF 33.6 year to date. That's the picks and shovels that we're talking about. I'm putting money in these ETFs every day of the week instead of a new bird AI whatever, right? So when a wool sneaker company can add half a billion dollars in market cap by changing the name, market's telling you something. You should listen. Next story is Trump doubling down on the DOJ probe of Jerome Powell, saying, and I quote, I'll have to fire him. In a Fox Business interview that aired on Wednesday morning, President Trump confirmed that he's not dropping the Justice Department's criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and instead he threatened to fire Powell if he doesn't resign when his Term as chair ends next month. His exact words were, well, then I'll have to fire him.

[Robert Croak]

Okay, but here's the problem with that. Austin Fed officials are protected by a federal law that narrowly limits the reasons a president can remove them. And the Supreme Court is literally weighing the bounds of that law right now in a separate case involving Trump's attempt to fire a different Fed official.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

And while Powell's term as chair ends in May, he has the option to stay on as a voting board member until 2028, which is exactly what he has already signaled he's going to do. Powell said last month that he has, and I quote, no intention of leaving the Fed until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.

[Robert Croak]

The DoJ probe itself is examining whether Powell lied to Congress about a Fed building renovation. Prosecutors visited the construction site on Tuesday. So this thing is active and happening right now. Paul has called it a pretext, part of Trump's long running campaign to influence how the Fed sets interest rates.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Now here, Robert, is the political twist that matters most for the markets. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has said he won't support Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Powell until the Powell probe is resolved. And so Trump's response to that in the interview was he might not, but that's why Tillis is no longer a senator. Tillis is retiring, but is still sitting in his seat. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott went on Fox Business on Tuesday and predicted the probe would wrap up within weeks. But when pressed on what he was basing that on, he admitted that he had nothing.

[Robert Croak]

I mean we have probe this, wore that tariff this and we wonder why the markets are all over the place. So Austin, tell our listeners, what does this mean for you and your money?

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Yeah, so there's, I guess, you know, two scenarios. Scenario one is Trump actually tries to fire Jerome Powell. This triggers a Supreme Court fight crisis of the thought of Fed independence. Potentially a rapid spike in the long end yields as foreign buyers begin to reconsider what risk free rate actually means. Maybe gold rips the dollar, weakens equities get completely repriced lower. That is scenario one. Scenario two is Jerome PO stays like he's signaling he wants to wash, doesn't get confirmed and we end up with a lame duck Fed chair inside a deeply divided FOMC going into the back half of the year. This policy paralysis right when tariffs and war driven inflation pass through is hitting the hardest, is a really weird thing, really hard pill to swallow right now. And I looked on, you know, polymarket 41 chance zero rate cuts in 2026, which is the exact opposite of what we were pricing in in December of was like a 3% chance, right? We had like two or three rate cuts that were being priced in, which makes me think that's so weird. The stock market's back to all time highs. So like what's going on? So I, I don't know. This is very interesting to me as, as an outsider looking in, just trying to decipher and demystify what's really going on behind the scenes. Like, I think, I don't think the markets yet are really pricing in the turbulence and the uncertainty of what could happen here with Jerome Powell and Kevin Warsh.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, I think it's part of why the Rich Habits podcast and the Rich Habits Network are so important. We talk about it all is preparing people and trying to read through all the tea leaves and help people understand what's really going on. So for your portfolio, I feel like there's two moves here. First, own some gold. Because if Fed independence gets questioned by the bond market, even just once, gold gets repriced higher very quickly. Second, quality duration. If this whole thing sparks yield volatility, high quality bonds and dividend aristocrat equities are going to outperform speculative growth names that are priced for perfection because of speculated rate cuts. Bottom line, the markets have been trained to ignore the Trump Powell drama. And this week should end all of that. Austin. Before we jump into our third story, support from the show comes from vcx, the public ticker for private tech. For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination. And for generations, everyday Americans could be part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, the US Stock market.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

It did not matter whether you are a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone can own a piece of the great American companies. But now that's changed. Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public on the stock markets. The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind, while a select few venture capitalists reap all the benefits. Until now.

[Robert Croak]

That's why we've been excited to introduce vcx, the public ticker for private tech. VCX by fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and so much more.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

So visit getvcx.com for more information. That is get VCX.com and carefully consider the investment materials before investing, including objectives risks, charges and expenses. This note information can be found in the fund's perspective [e-mail] this is a paid sponsorship. Robert we talked about VCX in the most recent live stream we hosted Inside the Rich Habits Network. And the interesting part about it is you think about the market net asset value that VCX listed on the New York Stock exchange at about 18, 19, $20 or so at the time. But the interesting part about that and we all know Anthropic makes up about 21% of VCX market net asset value and when it listed at 181920 a share, it was assuming that Anthropic was a 300ish billion dollar company. As you guys might have seen just this week in the headlines, Anthropic shareholders and Anthropic like the company, they are turning down money at an 800 plus billion dollar valuation. Which means that I and I'm not going to really get into the details here, but I highly encourage all of you now that VCX is around $80 a share, hopefully none of you guys chased it up to 500 something with these day traders that were trading it and bidding it up. But now that it's come back down to reality or starting to rather here at 80 bucks a share, $79 a share, I would really encourage you to think about what is the updated M Nav of vcx. Knowing that Anthropic is well on their way to become a trillion dollar company, OpenAI is well on its way to be a trillion dollar company. Databricks, all of these names inside of VCX has been dramatically repriced in the secondary markets just over the last two or three months since VCX got on the scene enlisted with the NYSE. So do your own research, use Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, whatever you want to do, ask it questions about repricing of the M Nav with VCX with these secondaries and you might be surprised. So our third story here is Novo Nordisk partnering with OpenAI to accelerate their drug discovery. Novo Nordisk, which you guys know as the Danish pharma giant behind OIC and WeGovi, announced earlier this week that they're partnering with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT's models across their entire operation. The goal of the partnership is to use artificial intelligence to analyze massive data sets, speed up drug discovery and cut the time between research and delivering treatments to the patients.

[Robert Croak]

And the key here is this isn't a pilot in one department, it's a full company integration. Pilot programs are launching an R&D manufacturing commercial operations right now with full AI integration across the business by the end of this year.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

The company CEO framed it like this and I quote, integrating AI in our everyday work gives us the ability to analyze data sets at a scale that was previously impossible, identifying patterns we could not see and test hypotheses faster than ever.

[Robert Croak]

And Moderna is using ChatGPT Enterprise across its business and advancing its Mr. And a work with OpenAI as well. Sanify and Formation Bio are also partnered with OpenAI to accelerate drug development. Novo also teamed up with Nvidia last year on an AI powered drug discovery. And the pattern is clear. Big Pharma is racing to bolt AI into every single stage of the drug pipeline. And I think it is great, great news for the future of healthcare, but also for these companies that we're watching.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Well, Robert, why don't you break down for everyone, what does this mean for the future of health care?

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, for me it's two takeaways. First, this is bullish for Big Pharma broadly, not just Novo. If drug discovery timelines compress, the companies with the biggest R and D budgets benefit most because they get more shots on goal. Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Merck, the ones spending 10 billion-plus per year on R D are going to be the winners. Second, keep watching the picks and shovels. Austin and I talk about picks and shovels all the time. Every one of these partnerships, Novo with OpenAI, Moderna with OpenAI, Novo with Nvidia runs on GPUs, so drug discovery workloads are enormous. Nvidia's healthcare AI business is quietly one of their fastest growing verticals and no one is talking about it. So if you own Nvidia for AI, you're indirectly owning the pharma AI thesis as well.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Yeah, Robert, as I think about it, Novo Nordisk, they make the world's most valuable drugs for obesity and diabetes. So when a company that's already winning decides to put AI at the center of their operation, I think that's a signal about where the entire industry now is headed and the compounding benefits are going to finally start. I love this. I'm so excited. Maybe if I'm lucky, I'll get to live to 100. Who knows?

[Robert Croak]

Me too, man. I'm excited as well, because with AI, all of this technology, there are a lot of claims out there in the medical field and in the pharma field that if we stay healthy for another five to 10 years, AI is going to help solve all of the problems that cause aging and heart disease and all these things. So I'm excited as the elder statesman in the Rich Habits podcast that I could also live 30, 40 more healthy years, which is just incredible.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Now, Robert, as I alluded to at the beginning of this episode, we are joined by Ron Santella, CEO and Managing partner of Equable Shares. He is a Wall street veteran going to give us his perspective on the market rally. But before we jump to that, let's go to ETF Central for a second. ETF Central, great website, great platform to learn all things ETFs, fund flows, expense ratios, total performance. Because we'd like to give you guys a little bit of a highlight as to what are the best performing ETF themes and segments and the worst performing every week. So let's jump to this one real quick. So I'm looking at their homepage right now under the segment section Movers and Shakers Best performing this week, top three fintech up 11%, AI and big data up 11.5% and blockchain up 14.5% this week. And the worst performing ETF sectors of the week include volatility down 6.8%, US energy down 7% and energy as a whole down 10%. But the interesting part, Robert, is the energy segment as a whole is up 65% year to date despite that 10% pullback. Now that we've heard from ETF Central, let's jump to our interview with Ron Santella and joining us today to share their perspective about all things going on in the stock market. Welcome back to the podcast. Ron Santella, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Equable Shares.

[Ron Santella]

Happy to be here, guys. It's been about two weeks and I appreciate coming back today.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

We are thrilled. It's been a crazy two weeks, right? The markets have experienced a record 10 day bounce back with the S P Now closing over 7,000 for the first time in history just earlier this week. A very environment from when you were on the show just a couple weeks ago. So you're in these meetings every single day with the biggest investors on Wall street and around the world, frankly, what's everyone thinking about this V shaped recovery, bounce back rally? And in your opinion, is this a durable, you know, something to get excited about for 2026 or maybe we have some, you know, cautiously optimistic.

[Ron Santella]

Sure. So I'm, I talk to 20 or 30 people a week and I think the consensus is, and we've seen this movie before, if you just circle back to 2025 and we had that precipitous Drop in the stock market V Shape recovery. Obviously a different set of circumstances this year, but we had over a 21 day period, we saw about a 10% drop in the market. It took 15 days to make it back. So I think people are kind of getting used to it. Austin is the answer to the question. But I think what underlies it is that, that for the veteran Wall street investors, they know ultimately the market is about fundamentals. And they, they say the market is already looking beyond the war. They're looking at the earnings, looking at the economy, and I think that's the bet that they're making.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

I agree actually to that point, Ron. I saw a chart that was shared on X and essentially, you know, as we think about earnings seasons that happen, you know, throughout every, every three months here when all these publicly traded companies report their, their profits and their earnings to their investors, we see earnings revision revisions, which is Wall street analysts saying, we're seeing the writing on the wall. We think profits are going to be higher or we think profits are going to be lower. And I saw this chart on X. I'll pull it here and put it on screen right now so everyone can see here in post production what I'm looking at. But essentially what the chart shows is on a 10 year average, the earning revisions we've seen so far year to date are way higher than normal. And so if you were asking me why was this only a 10 pullback versus perhaps, you know, we think back to the Trump tar tantrum April of 2025, which was, you know, 18, 20, 22% pullback. I think it's because of what you were just talking about, the fundamentals kind of holding the bottom there and saying, okay, sure, we can, we can overreact, but like, let's look at these profits, let's look at these earnings per share revisions and get excited about that.

[Ron Santella]

Yeah, I agree with that. I think as we discussed on the last show, this will be six consecutive quarters of double digit S and P earnings growth. That's a, that's a strong market. If I look back to last year, Austin, I feel like there was maybe a bit more uncertainty because it was really just day to day coming up with numbers. Whether it was 30, 40, 50, 100% tariffs, possibly by the specter of war, is not desirable. I do feel like early on investors did know that there would be an end to the war, to the conflict, and we would probably come out a winner in one way or another. But yeah, I agree with your statement for sure.

[Robert Croak]

We were just talking about how Trump is threatening to fire Jerome Powell if he doesn't step aside in May. So what do you think investors should be thinking about right now as it relates to Fed cutting, Fed maintaining, or God forbid, an interest rate hike in 2026? And also, and also second part of the question, what do you think about Kevin Warsh?

[Ron Santella]

So I'll start with your second question, Robert A. He has experience, as you know, he's a governor. He certainly has the pedigree. If you just look at his education, Stanford, Harvard. He's a smart guy and he's done some real things. He also has Wall Street's here.

[Robert Croak]

Sure.

[Ron Santella]

He's worked with, worked with some of the biggest investors on Wall Street. I think the question about Kevin Warsh is going to be will this be the hawk that we had in 08, or are you going to see a dove? And so he's going to have a line to walk when he is confirmed and he will get confirmed. In terms of expectations for the Fed, Kevin Horst will most likely foul with the Fed dot plot was at the end of 25, the Fed was looking at two, possibly three rate cuts. So. So I don't see anything right now that would derail that. I think the open question with Kevin Warsh is going to be really two things. First was going to be his view of shrinking the balance sheet. Because as you know, I'm sure many of our listeners know he's been on record many times not favoring a large balance sheet at the Fed, but he's also aware of what happened in 2019 when the Fed didn't just let positions roll off, they actively sold positions. And it really reminded us that there's two sides to the Fed's balance sheet. There's the asset side, which we talk about, but there's also the liability side, which are bank reserves, primarily.

[Robert Croak]

Right.

[Ron Santella]

And so I think he's aware of what happened at that time in the repo market. But for me, the larger open question about the new Fed chair as he's getting confirmed, is will the Fed maintain that level of independence that gives the market confidence? Because it's obviously been well communicated that this administration was very involved in picking this chair. They made their feelings well known about the path of interest rates. And so I think people will be viewing him and saying, is he going to be his own man when he runs the Fed? And I think that's really important.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

I completely agree. You know, when we were talking about this story, Robert and I sort of laid out two scenarios. Scenario one is Trump Actually tries to fire Jerome Powell, triggers a Supreme Court fight, crisis of the Fed independence of what you're just talking about. Potentially a rapid spike in long end yields. Foreign bond buyers begin to reconsider what is risk free. What does that actually mean in this environment? Gold probably rips right. Things like that. Or scenario two, which is Jerome Powell stays warsh doesn't get confirmed and we end up with this lame duck Fed chair inside a deeply divided FOMC going into the back half of the year. Speaking of the back half of the year, you know, I'm up on Polymarket right now and I'm looking at the odds of how many rate cuts could come in 2026. And the number one highest odd outcome is zero at a 41% chance right now. Being priced in to, you know, by the bettors on, on polymarket. Does that surprise you?

[Ron Santella]

It actually doesn't surprise me. When you look at the labor markets are still fairly strong. I know when I was here two weeks ago, we looked at February number that wasn't great. The March number came in as, you know, very strong. So the two months combination was fine. Economic growth is still running at over 2% on a real rate. I would have a hard time making a case for a rate cut myself at this point. I think a lot of people look at the economy and so it doesn't surprise me. You're seeing about 40% of people said no rate cuts this year.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

So now let's kind of keep going on this conversation. How do you think investors should be evolving from the traditional 60:40 portfolio strategy as its effectiveness, as we sort of saw here with the volatility we just, you know, experienced in the stock market, the bond market, things like that, as that 6040 portfolio strategy effectiveness continues to erode given the instability of the bond market.

[Ron Santella]

Sure. You know, I think one of the biggest differences, Austin, from 15, 20, 25 years ago is investors now have many more choices of how to direct their capital. Whether you're chosen or whether you're choosing rather a liquid wrapper like an ETF like we have with Hedg with Hedge. Whether you're going into the private markets, which have become more and more accessible to retail investors, you're not forced to make that 6040 choice today. You can, you can make more choices. I think it's wise to make that because I think we've seen the breakdown that model over certain periods. I think 2022 is, is the highlight for that. Right. When there were six, some 6040 portfolios were down 20 25% that year. So for me, I, I advise clients and with my own money is to put half or so in, in the stock market, have some liquidity and fixed income, but have a healthy portion, 20, 25% in alternatives or liquid alternatives.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

I think that's a great breakdown, Ron. And as I think about the 60, 40 portfolio. Right. 60% equities, 40% bonds. It's sort of this portfolio structure that a lot of people in retirement find themselves in. Right. It's a way to stay in the markets a little bit with that 60 equities, but also have what is to be be believed as a safe haven with these bonds. And then I think even, you know, when you were back on two or three weeks ago, we talked about how the bond market's been in, like the 65, 68 month bear market just, yeah, went down, down, down from the tops of 2022, which doesn't sound like a safe haven to me. So maybe let's, let's kind of dissect a little bit more about what Hedg does and who it's built for.

[Ron Santella]

Specifically, two great questions. I'll start with the first one, what it does. So atdg is a beta player in the market. We're long the S&P 500, but we reduce the risk. And so we have an option overlay. We're selling call options, we're buying a put spread, and we're lowering that volatility by more than 50%. So it's really designed for those who want to stay in the market, stay invested, but want to lower that volatility and be a little bit more risk averse. There's upside participation. We've annualized at double digits over the last three years. But we also look at the downside, and we're there for people who want to protect the downside when market volatility increases.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Yeah, I'm looking over here right now, Morningstar. You guys are about 1718 year to date with Hedg. So to your point, you're experiencing that upside appreciation as the markets now do a little V shaped recovery thing. And then maybe if you have, I'm curious, do you know how, how Hedg, how the strategy held up during this craziness that we experience in the markets?

[Ron Santella]

Sure. Let's start with this year. If you look at Q1 of this year, the market was down slightly more than 4%. The S&P 500 hedg hedge was down about 70 basis points, so a little more than a half a percent. So we were down less than 20% of the market drop over that period. The market has obviously had a great run up. It's rallied more than 10% from its March 30 bottom. And here we are with the market up a little bit less than 3% through yesterday. And we're up 16, 17. So we're still getting over 50% of the market rise. And so you'll get that upside participation, but when the market has those drawdowns, we're there to protect you in those periods also.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

That's awesome.

[Robert Croak]

I want to click back just for a second on this option overlay strategy, just so our audience understands. Because how I understand it is you're basically actively hedging against the downside. So it kind of smooths out the returns during this, this volatility we've been seeing a lot right now. So can you click back on that just for a second and tell me if that's the correct assumption? So our audience understands what an options overlay strategy is as it relates to Hedg, certainly.

[Ron Santella]

So you said two things that are important there, Robert, one or marketplace. So in a sense, it's a beta play, but it's an actively managed risk overlay around that beta play. And that's what I think dampens that volatility and provides that smoothness. You know, the second part, you know, the answer to your question is, you know, we have three pillars that we think are important when investors look at hedge. And the first one is we believe investors should stay invested in the market. And I could, I could borrow one of your expressions that time in the market beats timing the market. And that's something I carried my whole career. I could share anecdotes going back 40 years about the importance of. But I'm going to share something that's breaking news. It was actually in Barron's today, which is if you look at an article and it talks about recent market activity and it goes back over 20 years, they talk about how the strongest periods of recovery, not surprisingly, become after the weakest periods. So those strongest 10 day moves in the market are after the weakest 10 days. But it also talks about, and they quote some BlackRock data on this, that if you're just not invested for only five days of those periods over the last 20 years, you'll miss 40% of their performance. So one of our core principles in designing hedge was to give people a vehicle that could smooth out the volatility in their portfolio in these vital times so they can stay invested. Because unless you Have a crystal ball. There's no way to time something like that.

[Robert Croak]

So I want to kind of click back on that because I have a feeling that this rally that we have experienced over the last couple weeks really took a lot of institutions and definitely retail investors by surprise. So I want to talk about that from your perspective, what you're seeing and how people can protect their portfolios through this volatility while simultaneously being exposed to the potential upsides that could come out of all this volatility. And I think you just touched on it. But I want to go a little deeper on that because of course time in the market is so important, but it's different right now because people have all these knee jerk reactions all the time to these headlines. So talk about how you calm down your investors and all the people that trust you guys in how to react to these types of markets.

[Ron Santella]

Sure. So I think the first thing is investors need to be informed about what's driving the market rally or pullback. So when you look at the current rally, this 10% plus lift in the market from the bottom 40% of that move is coming from five stocks. So we're back to a theme that we've seen over the last couple years where those large cap stocks have driven the rally. Put another way, the equal weight index RSP has lagged by 400 base points over the same period. So when you talk about the market, one has to find what part of the market they're invested in during these periods. In terms of how you deal with these environments, Robert, one can't time when they have protection in their portfolio. Protection should always be in the portfolio. And that leads to the second pillar of our investing philosophy, which is protect your downside and the upside will take care of itself. I'm going to quote famous investor Will Rogers, the old cowboy philosopher who said, I'm not as concerned about the return on my capital as much as the return of my capital. And I would say that we have that philosophy in our DNA to degree because we want to be in that stay rich business. For people who want to preserve their capital. Hedge is a vehicle designed for that. And if you look at any downside period over the last three years, whether it's monthly, quarterly, or even annually in 2022, we provide that cushion in those volatile periods.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Ron, what a great conversation. I love that. And I love that you said we're in the stay rich business. I love that so much. That's, that's awesome.

[Robert Croak]

I'm stealing that for sure.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Ron, thanks so much for joining us on this episode of the Rich Habits Radar. And hopefully we'll have you back in a couple weeks too. We love getting your perspective here. You are the veteran on Wall Street. It's cool to have you in sort of our back pocket as someone to lean on when we've got these big headlines, these big market moves. And we can come to Ron and say, Ron, you've been doing this for 40 years. What about what's going on? So again, man, thanks so much for joining us and I'm sure we'll see you here very soon.

[Ron Santella]

Gentlemen, thanks for having me. Great seeing and look forward to coming back.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Awesome conversation with Ron Santella. Cannot wait to have him back on the show. Robert, I think it's time we jump to our personal radar points, so why don't you kick us off with your first one?

[Robert Croak]

Absolutely. Austin A Reuters article stated this week that Meta Platforms is projected to surpass Alphabet's Google in digital advertising revenue globally by the end of 2026 and dethrone the search engine G client in the lucrative business. According to Emarketer, Meta, who you know owns Instagram, expects global net ad revenues to reach $243.5 billion in 2026, ahead of Google's projected 239 billion. The market research firm said Meta's Advantage plus automated ad suite has been gaining strong advertiser adoption due to its ability to streamline campaign setup and enhance return on ad spend. I know that was a mouthful, but as someone who's in the digital ad space who's got consumer products and everything else, it definitely is Instagram and Meta crushing it right now. So that was an interesting headline for me because I don't know anyone that spends as much on Google AdWords now as they do on Facebook and Instagram ads. My second one today is over 60% of Coachella attendees use Buy Now, Pay later firms for installment plans to purchase their tickets. This is crazy because fans could get tickets with as little as 49.99 down and spread the remaining cost of the $600 plus passes over several months, which is a huge trend by these younger audiences trying to manage these rising prices. Coachella I did some research for 2026 initially launched with general admission passes between 549 and $649 and VIP passes starting at 11.99. But here's the takeaway. The average person spent over 2, $500 for the weekend, including their food, travel and everything else. And this definitely goes against everything Austin and I talk about and educate when it comes to building systems and budgeting correctly for your financial future. Please people, if you can't afford to go, don't put it on installments moment and don't put it on credit cards. This is not going to fare well for your future. And Live Nation is my third one today, which goes hand in hand considering they've been doing this for many years and they are monopolizing the ticket market and they're in the middle of a jury trial because of it. A jury in the high stakes antitrust trial found Wednesday that Live Nation and its subsidiary Ticketmaster illegally maintained monopoly power in the ticketing market. This probably comes to no surprise for all of you that are going to concerts and festivals. And I did some digging because I didn't have an update on it, but right now fees are at all time highs causing a roughly 30% increase over the overall ticket price, which I think is crazy. Live Nation's been in this hot seat for a very long time and we will keep you posted. I will definitely keep you posted on what is happening with the trial and the results because I just think it's crazy that they make billions of dollars meanwhile people are just trying to Enjoy Entertainment. So 30% fees on top of the already high ticket price is crazy to me.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

That is absolutely insane. Geez Louise. But I want to go back to the Meta and Google story you shared. So you said that you don't know people spending more on Google search words versus Meta. So you're saying people are buying Meta ads via Instagram, Facebook and maybe WhatsApp. I don't know. Do they have ads on WhatsApp? So that's what you're seeing right now in the markets?

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, it's been happening for quite some time. I never thought we would see a world where Metta would leapfrog Google in ad spend. But I definitely feel like at least in my travels right now for smaller brands and people that may only have a couple thousand dollars a month budget, I feel like Facebook and Instagram are definitely the move. But. But it's just something that I didn't wasn't aware of that they were even coming close to surpassing Google and they're already doing it in 2026. So. So definitely an interesting headline for me. And for anyone that follows me that's got a small brand, they're probably not surprised by this headline.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Yeah, no, that's great. And I'm looking at Meta's stock price right now. 671 after hearing that, I'm like, geez, maybe I should buy some stock. Who knows where it's headed. That's really interesting. Well Robert, appreciate you hyping up Meta there. I. I think I should go buy some shares now. Well, speaking of the stock market, we are officially entering the second quarter of 2026 and uncertainty has never felt so high. We saw this pullback in the markets and now we're back to all time high. Now we're back off them again. Like major indices have not experienced durable uptrends. I think since even September or October, the Fed has completely flip flopped on their rate cut assumptions. Inflation is becoming stickier and stickier. A lot of uncertainty Robert, which is

[Robert Croak]

why it has never been more important to have a plan and stick to it. And if you're a long term investor like us, the plan has never been easier to come up with and implement. Dollar cost average. Ride the wave and don't have any knee jerk reactions actions.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

We've been talking about the importance of dollar cost averaging for years now. I Dollar cost average, I kid you not. 100 bucks every Friday in the VTI. No matter what, I show this to Robert. He loves it. It's so fun. And so if you are someone who feels like the markets are shaky, you're not seeing your progress. This is why it's important to be a part of the social platform Blossom Social on Blossom you're able to see your entire portfolio in a very clean and simple way. Got your holdings, performance, dividends, everything all together. Together.

[Robert Croak]

You're also able to follow other long term investors on the platform, helping you stay motivated during uncertain times. Not to mention the portfolios on Blossom are all verified. So if you're seeing someone buy or sell a name, it's because they actually did it in their own brokerage account.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

We're both on their portfolios over there as well. So if you want to join us, search Blossom Social in the App Store or head to blossomsocial.com on your phone or desktop. There's a link in the show notes below. So Robert, let's now jump into my three radar points to round off the episode. Said so the three headlines I've got to share include the spring housing market already becoming broken hymns and hers ripping on RFK Jr's peptide changes and American Eagles sequel with Sydney Sweeney. So let's start off here with the housing market call out. Existing home sales fell 3.6% in March to the lowest level since June of 2025, nearly four times worse than the 1% decline economists had expected. Mortgage rates dipped briefly below 6% February but the Iran war sent them back up to 6 1/2% by the end of last week, killing any momentum. The NAR just slashed their 2026 sales forecast from 14 increase in sales to only a 4% increase in sales and when mortgage rates move from only 6% to 6.25%. So just that small little move right there. The national association of home builders estimate 1.4 million Americans get priced out of a new home entirely just on that 25 basis point move. The median existing home price still rose 1.4% to $408,000. So affordability is still getting worse even as sales collapse. Housing market, it's not thawing, it is refreezing and that is the real consequences of consumer spending home builder stocks and the banks underwriting household of it. Now let's go to a more interesting topic which is RFK junior's peptide changes and what that could mean for Hims and hers. So HIMS is the ticker of Hims and hers health jumped like it's up like 30% or something this week after RFK Jr. Announced the FDA is trying to remove 12 peptides from Category 2 restrictions, potentially completely reversing a Biden era decision that limited their broader manufacturing and sale. Now the FDA plans to convene an independent advisory committee in July to review the evidence, which is a typical precursor to a formal regulatory shift. Massive unlock for HIMS right now because they acquired a peptide manufacturing facility in California last year specifically because they saw the writing on the wall. Most peptides today are sold in the gray market. So legalization moves an entire shadow industry into the regulated chain channel and HIMS is positioned to be one of the best public companies to capture this new demand. Now finally, let's talk about American Eagles Sydney Sweeney sequel. Say that four times fast. Now the retailer launched their second Sydney Sweeney campaign, Sid for short, featuring her in American Eagle jean shorts for the summer push. The first campaign Sydney Sweeney has Great Jeans was a masterclass from any any any which way you want to think about it. It drove drove total revenue up 6% just on that specific campaign, more than doubled their stock price in six months and generated what their chief marketing officer called unprecedented new customer acquisition in just six weeks. I think the company badly needs a repeat at this point. Celebrity anchored brand campaigns are back as a real stock catalyst and what's cool is we talked about this on the rich habits radar last year when they did this and shares of American Eagle are up 85% since that episode. Episode.

[Robert Croak]

That's just Crazy takeaway. I love the Sydney Sweeney campaign because it shows what good marketing can do to a company. It can change the entire dynamic and stock price of a company just by nailing it. But I like this ad. Sid for short for the shorts. Very cool. Let's see what happens and if it really moves the stock a lot. But also, I want to talk about Hims for a minute. I didn't realize they're one of the biggest winners in this this with this RFK Jr announcement. And if it happens and you've been a big, big bowl of hymns for years now. So I definitely feel like I'm left out in the cold and I should probably own more hymns and up my holdings in HIMS after seeing this.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Yeah, I think HIMS and Eli Lilly both are positioned really well. I mean, for literally a month, him stock was trading from February 11th all the way through essentially March, March 6th. So call it three weeks there it was trading at 15 bucks a share. Now it's at 28. Pretty exciting. So if you've been dollar cost averaging into some names that we've liked like hims over the years and several weeks and months, like, you're probably doing pretty well like I am. But yeah, Robert, I think Peptides are here to stay. I think it's something that HIMS and Eli Lilly both will benefit a lot from. And maybe Novo Nordisk gets in the game now with their OpenAI partnership. You never know. Everybody, thanks so much for joining us on this week's episode of the Rich Habits Radar Friday episode of the Rich Habits Podcast where every Friday morning morning coming at you with the biggest headlines impacting you and your money. Don't forget 7 day free trial happening right now inside the Rich Habits Network, Wall Street Favorites.com to find out what Wall street thinks about your portfolio, please subscribe to the Rich Habits newsletter. It's completely free and we have tons of free analysis over there. And we can't wait to hang out with so many of you in Austin, Texas at the Rich Habits Retreat. So grateful for all of you that bought tickets. It's going to be so much fun. And to the 10 of you that bought tickets that got randomly elected to join us on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange that following Monday on May 4 for a closing bell ceremony that's going to be just as fun.

[Robert Croak]

So if you're not yet entrenched in the Rich Habits Podcast Network newsletter, the entire ecosystem, what are you waiting for? You've got to get in there. So much cool stuff is happening that's just a quick glimpse of everything that's happening. So make sure to share this with a friend, share with a family member member and get them involved and we'll see you next time.

[Austin Hinkwitz]

Thanks everyone and we'll see you on Monday.

[Sweetgreen Meat Wraps Announcer]

There's a new way to sweetgreen Meat wraps Handheld, hearty and made for life on the move. With bold, chef crafted flavors, fresh ingredients and over 40 grams of protein, they're built to satisfy without slowing you down. Try wraps today in the app or@order sweetgreen.com available at all participating locations.

[Red Bull Summer All Day Play Announcer]

Patience.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe [e-mail].