Rich Habits Podcast – "Our 2026 Market Predictions"

Hosts: Austin Hankwitz & Robert Croak
Date: January 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This special Friday episode of the Rich Habits Podcast features hosts Austin Hankwitz and Robert Croak sharing their annual predictions for the 2026 markets. Building on a strong record of accuracy with their 2025 predictions, they break down what they foresee in equities, AI, politics’ market influence, and commodities. The episode also reviews ETF sector performance, key headlines, and notable market developments, serving as a roadmap for investors keen to capitalize on expected trends.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2026 Market Predictions

a) AI: Both a Reward and a Risk

• Main Idea: The stock market in 2026 will meaningfully reward companies with effective AI strategies and punish those lacking or underperforming in AI deployment.
• Quotes & Insights:
  • “This isn’t 2023 and 2024 where your company can simply announce a partnership with Nvidia or OpenAI and your stock pops by 15% overnight.”
    – Robert (02:12)
  • Google saw major stock gains in 2025 due to successful Gemini AI integration across its products (search, Gmail, Docs).
  • Apple, despite its massive device user base, experienced negative market reactions in 2025 due to unclear AI strategy.
  • SaaS companies like Monday and Snowflake risk being “punished” if their AI isn’t substantive:

    "We'll start to see every company get their feet held to the fire as it relates to their specific AI strategy in 2026."
    – Robert (03:44)

  • Sector to Watch: Healthcare stocks are highlighted as prime AI beneficiaries in 2026.

    "We think we'll look back at 2026 and believe that was the year healthcare companies really began to implement AI into their businesses."
    – Austin (04:03)

b) Political Influence: The Trump Effect on Markets

• Main Idea: The Trump administration will continue policies to heat up the economy and markets, especially with the midterm elections on the horizon.
• Quotes & Insights:
  • “The stock market’s performance leading up to an election cycle has predicted with 80% accuracy who will win that Election.”
    – Austin (04:34)
  • Trump administration is pushing for lower mortgage rates (down 1.5% in the past year), and aggressive asset support to drive voter satisfaction.
  • Preference for asset ownership:

    “If you’re not in the stock market, you’re not contributing to your 401k… you’re just sitting in CDs or cash. Probably stop doing that.”
    – Austin (06:16)

  • Small Cap Stock Impact: The Russell 2000 index and beaten-down small caps may outperform under policies aimed at boosting broad market prices.

c) Commodities: Precious Metals, Copper, and a Fertilizer ‘Dark Horse’

• Main Idea: Commodities are key for 2026, with continued momentum in metals and new focus on copper and potash (fertilizer).
• Quotes & Insights:
  • Robert lauds past silver/gold calls and remains bullish long-term on precious metals.

    "We experienced hundreds of percentages of increases in Silver, Gold in 2025, momentum in 2026."
    – Robert (07:49)

  • Copper: Tied to data center and chip infrastructure; ongoing high demand particularly for AI hardware.

    "The use cases for the metal expand dramatically via data centers, chips, and infrastructure for this revolutionary technology."
    – Robert (08:58)

  • Potash: US imports 90% (mostly from Canada), making it vulnerable to tariffs. The only US-based producer, ticker IPI, is a “dark horse” for dramatic gains if trade tensions alter supply economics.

    “If we import 90% of US potash consumption from a country that overnight could have a 25% tariff applied… this company could benefit dramatically.”
    – Austin (09:49)

  • Watch for both copper and potash as strategic, possibly overlooked commodities with outsized upside.

2. ETF Sector Movers & Shakers

(12:00–13:45)

• Top performing ETF sectors (weekly):
  • Cannabis & Psychedelics: +6%
  • Energy: +6.5%
  • Metals (ex-gold): Top spot
• Worst performers:
  • Cloud Computing: -2%
  • Fintech: -3%
  • US Financials: -3.5%
• Takeaway on Cloud Computing:
  • “Cloud computing… reminds me a lot of that software as a service model… AI might begin to punish.”
    – Austin (12:47)
  • Overbuilt SaaS solutions could face declining demand as AI enables easier in-house development.

3. Rapid-Fire Headlines: “Show & Tell”

(14:02–21:59)

Austin’s Highlights

• AI Semiconductor Market:
  • RBC Capital forecasts $550B market revenue by 2028, up from $220B in 2025.
  • Key beneficiaries: Nvidia, Micron, Marvel, ARM, etc.

    “That’s $330 billion in just two years… Unbelievable.”
    – Austin (14:57)

• Amazon Buys a Copper Mine:
  • Securing resources for AI data centers; underlines copper’s critical role.
• BlackRock Hits $14T AUM:
  • Enormous asset scale, with $342B client inflow in one quarter.

    “I can’t even conceptualize $14 trillion, let alone own. It’s bonkers.”
    – Austin (17:36)

Robert’s Highlights

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC):
  • Record Q4 profits (+35%)—AI chip demand is driving rapid growth.
  • “They are just crushing it… I remain bullish.” – Robert (17:58)
• Trump Proposes 10% Cap on Credit Card Interest:
  • Still a proposal—significant pushback expected; could tighten bank lending but possibly benefit Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) companies like Affirm and Klarna.
  • Insight:

    “If banks get stricter, then Buy Now Pay Later companies could benefit as people who need access to credit flock to BNPL."
    – Austin (21:09)

• Crypto Regulatory Drama:
  • Clarity and Act delayed after Coinbase CEO objects; underscores the sector’s regulatory complexity.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “No one can accurately predict what the markets will do and we don’t claim to be able to do that either...”
  – Austin, keeping it honest (01:19)
• “Talking about those SaaS companies like Monday and Snowflake—they’ll get punished by the markets 100%.”
  – Robert (03:44)
• “If you’re not an asset owner… probably stop doing that. That’s not a good idea to just be sitting in cash.”
  – Austin (06:16)
• “Potash… is that dark horse commodity here coming into 2026.”
  – Austin (11:00)
• The Amazon copper mine anecdote (“they’re buying a frickin copper mine!”) and story about collecting millions of nickels for their copper content—playful, but drives home commodity scarcity. (15:40)

Timestamps for Main Segments

• 00:17 – Introduction and recap of previous predictions
• 02:12 – Market Prediction 1: AI’s impact on stocks
• 04:34 – Market Prediction 2: Trump administration’s economic strategy
• 07:49 – Market Prediction 3: Commodities—metal momentum and the fertilizer wild card
• 12:00 – Weekly ETF sector performance roundup
• 14:02 – Austin’s “Show & Tell” market headlines
• 17:58 – Robert’s “Rob’s Radar” headlines and insights
• 21:59 – Discussion on credit card rate caps and potential BNPL impact
• 23:03 – Perks and performance of the Rich Habits Network/SPV investments

Summary Table: 2026 Market Predictions

| Theme | Prediction | Key Rationale/Drivers | |---------------------------|---------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | AI & Public Equities | Significant divergence—winners & losers | No more blanket stock surges for “AI announcements”; execution now matters | | Politics & Market Policy | Trump keeps economy/market hot pre-midterms | Historical election/market cycles, asset support policies | | Commodities | Focus on copper & potash | Infrastructure & AI needs for copper, supply chain & tariff risk for potash |

Closing Takeaway

2026, according to Austin and Robert, will pivot around discerning AI strategies, politically-fueled economic stimulus, and stakes in both ‘hot’ and under-the-radar commodities. The co-hosts encourage listeners to act as asset owners, monitor overlooked market pivots, and seek out opportunities where macro and sector-specific trends converge.

“We were three for three for 2025. Hopefully we’re three for three for 2026. We shall see.”
– Austin (11:31)

(For more detail, follow the provided timestamps to key segments in the episode.)