Private Credit Crisis, IEA Unleashing 400M Barrels of Oil, & 25% Chance of a Recession

Summary

Rich Habits Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Private Credit Crisis, IEA Unleashing 400M Barrels of Oil, & 25% Chance of a Recession
Hosts: Austin Hankwitz & Robert Croak
Date: March 13, 2026

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of the Rich Habits Podcast tackles urgent financial headlines affecting investors and everyday listeners. The hosts break down major stories—the emerging private credit liquidity crisis, Rivian’s foray into robotics and the AI investment wave, and the unprecedented global oil reserve release by the IEA. These are interwoven with actionable takeaways, macro trends, and sharp commentary on how the rich manage their assets. The episode wraps up with rapid-fire "radar points" on trending topics impacting money, markets, and the wider economy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Private Credit Crisis: Liquidity Crunch

[00:54–07:50]

• What Happened: Multiple major private credit funds are overwhelmed by redemption requests, far exceeding their normal quarterly limits.

  • Blackstone’s BCRED faced a record $3.8B in withdrawal requests (about 8% of assets) and broke its own cap to fulfill them.
  • Cliffwater’s $33B fund saw 14% of shares requested for redemption but only honored 7%.
  • Morgan Stanley’s North Haven fund and Blue Owl Capital followed suit, restricting or freezing redemptions altogether.
  • BlackRock also capped withdrawals for the first time, indicating heightened investor anxiety in a $1.8T industry.

• Why It Matters:

  • Private credit’s appeal was high yields (10%+) and low volatility.
  • Many investors misunderstood that "semi-liquid" funds aren’t easily accessed—these funds make loans to private companies (illiquid assets).
  • When large numbers of investors want out, funds can either sell at a discount, restrict withdrawals, or insert their own capital.

• Actionable Takeaways:

  • Robert: "If you invested in any private credit fund...remember to always read the fine print. Not next week, right now." ([05:12])
  • Investors should stress-test portfolios for illiquid investments, especially money needed in the next 3–5 years.
  • Alternative investments (like fine art or real estate) are not bad but must be held with long-term, not short-term, funds.
  • Austin: "Never put your money in an illiquid investment that you might need access to in the next three to five years." ([06:52])

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2. Rivian’s Robotics Play & AI Hardware Investment Wave

[08:09–16:19]

• The Story: Rivian’s CEO quietly spun out Mind Robotics, an AI-powered robotics company, raising $500M at a $2B valuation, with backing from major VCs.

  • The focus: Factory-specific robots for manufacturing tasks (not general-purpose humanoids).
  • Notable Quote (Robert): "Doing cartwheels does not create value in manufacturing." ([10:18])
  • Rivian is focusing on direct practical value vs. Tesla’s Optimus, which pursues generalized humanoid robots.

• Market Context:

  • Investment in "embodied AI" (robots that operate in the real world) is booming: $26.5B deployed in early 2026, on track to surpass last year’s $33B.
  • Austin: "The AI investment wave is moving through different cycles...the second phase is happening—physical AI robots, autonomous vehicles, and other machines that interact with the real world." ([11:44])

• Investment Implications:

  • The division between specialized (purpose-built) and general-purpose robots is impacting how VCs and public market investors allocate bets.
  • Rivian owns a significant stake in Mind Robotics, so a win could directly boost its market cap.
  • Austin: "If [Rivian] own 10, 20, 40% of Mind Robotics...what's 20% of a $50B company? That's $10B. And if Rivian's current market cap right now is $20B...their stock price has to pop by 50%." ([14:50])
  • Suggested approach: diversify across both sides—purpose-built and general AI robotics.

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3. IEA’s Historic Oil Reserve Release

[16:19–20:58]

• Event Details: The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 400M barrels of oil from reserves around the world—by far the largest coordinated emergency release in over 50 years. The US alone will release 172M barrels over four months.

• Context:

  • The Iran war ("Operation Epic Fury") has knocked out about 8M barrels per day (~20% of global supply).
  • Oil prices jumped from $60 to $91 per barrel (up 50% in three months) and US gasoline prices increased 17%.

• Deeper Implications:

  • The release only addresses crude oil, not natural gas—a critical vulnerability for Europe.
  • Austin: "Strategic Petroleum reserves are finite, right? ...The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has already hit a historic low level after the drawdowns during the Russia Ukraine crisis." ([18:14])
  • If the conflict persists, there’s no "second 400 million barrels" to deploy.

• Investor Takeaways ([19:25]):

  • Energy stocks benefit from chronic supply disruptions; reserve releases signal an environment that's bullish for oil companies (Exxon, Chevron, etc).
  • Rising oil impacts inflation—CPI is likely to jump, potentially reaching 3.5% by December per some economists.
  • Fed rate cuts may be delayed, affecting mortgages, car loans, and stock valuations.
  • Second-order effects: higher energy prices act as a tax on consumers, hitting discretionary spending stocks.

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4. ETF Pulse Check & Potash Trade

[23:07–25:35]

• Top-Performing Thematic ETFs (last 5 days):

  • Precious metals (excluding gold): +5.8%
  • Multi-commodity: +6%
  • Energy: +10%

• Worst Performers:

  • New consumer focus: -4%
  • US industrials: -3.75%
  • Niche commodities: -13.5%

• Notable Winner: IPI (potash/fertilizer stock) up 51% in the past month due to commodity shocks; “now is a great time to take some profits.” ([24:24])

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5. Radar Points: Fast-Fire Headlines and Commentary

[25:41–34:27]

Robert’s 3 Radar Points

1. Tesla RoboTaxi Fare Hikes ([25:41]):

   • Fares rose in Austin, now $10 for a five-mile trip.
   • Raises questions about the promise of cheap robotaxis as pilots turn more costly.
   • "If prices are already creeping up during the pilot phase...what happens when they actually need to turn a profit at scale?" ([25:41])

2. Crypto Market Structure Bill Advances ([26:37]):

   • White House confirms regulatory clarity is coming.
   • Could unlock $2T in institutional capital for digital assets.
   • "This one thing has been keeping the biggest money on the sidelines...it was legal uncertainty." ([26:47])
   • Austin’s skepticism: “Bitcoin is in a bear market...I don’t think it’s going to come out of one until there is exhaustion from sellers and buyers.” ([28:41])

3. Kim Kardashian’s New Energy Drink ([27:33]):

   • Launches "Update," targeting wellness-focused young women.
   • Kim is leveraging her 360M followers and proven brand-building power in an $80B industry.

Austin’s 3 Radar Points

1. NIL Deals Exploding ([30:35]):

   • Over 21,000 NIL deals, worth $166.5M, since June; 78% of the value comes from school-affiliated boosters, not brands.
   • Some football programs might spend >$40M on roster NIL this year.

2. Goldman Sachs Raises Recession & Inflation Odds ([31:24]):

   • US 12-month recession risk up to 25%.
   • Oil could average $98/bbl; worst case, $110/bbl.
   • First Fed cut now expected in September, GDP and jobless forecasts worsen, “stagflation” on the horizon.
   • Special announcement: Goldman’s Chief Investment Officer will join Monday’s episode.

3. Disney’s New CEO ([33:00]):

   • Josh D’Amaro, head of Parks & Experiences, takes over March 18.
   • Ends a long succession saga post-Bob Iger; initial investor reaction muted.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Robert on Private Credit:
  "What many didn't fully appreciate is the term semi liquid does not mean liquid." ([04:07])

• Austin on Illiquidity:
  "I'm up a ton on all of these opportunities, but that's with money that I don't need for years from now." ([06:58])

• Robert on Robotics:
  "Doing cartwheels does not create value in manufacturing." ([10:18])

• Austin on Strategic Oil Reserves:
  "The IEA doesn't have a second 400 million barrels to release." ([18:14])

• Robert on Energy Sector:
  "...the reserve release is actually a bullish signal for Energy companies not bearish." ([19:25])

• Austin on Bitcoin:
  “Bitcoin is in a bear market… it’s kind of probably be Q3 or Q4 [before we see a change].” ([28:41])

• Austin on NIL Deals:
  "166 million and it's not even coming from companies. It's just the schools paying. It is unreal." ([30:35])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Private Credit Crisis: [00:54–07:50]
• Rivian Robotics & AI Investment: [08:09–16:19]
• IEA Oil Reserve Release: [16:19–20:58]
• ETF Central/Energy Winners: [23:07–25:35]
• Radar Points (Tesla, Crypto, Kim K, NIL, Recession, Disney): [25:41–34:27]

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Tone, Language, and Style

The hosts’ style is energetic, conversational, and pragmatic with clear calls-to-action and relatable analogies. Both draw from their own investment experiences, mixing cautionary advice (“read the fine print!”) with forward-looking optimism (“AI hardware is the next wave”). They maintain a friendly rivalry, especially when discussing strategies or market skepticism.

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Final Takeaways for Listeners

• Always check (and stress-test) the liquidity terms of your investments.
• The AI boom is rapidly expanding into hardware and robotics; diversify your bets if investing in the theme.
• Global geopolitical shocks can rapidly upend oil and commodity markets, with complex downstream effects (inflation, discretionary spending, and rate cuts).
• Major regulatory clarity in crypto and big consumer branding moves (Kim K) are worth tracking for both risks and opportunities.
• Pay attention to seemingly “niche” trends, like NIL college deals or the impacts of management changes at companies like Disney—they may have major market effects.

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Note: For the next episode, listeners are promised an interview with Goldman Sachs’ Chief Investment Officer—a notable “must-listen” request from the hosts.

Transcript

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[Austin Hankwitz]

Welcome back to the Rich Habits Radar, our Friday episode of the Rich Habits podcast, where every Friday morning we're coming at you with the biggest headlines impacting you and your money. This episode is brought to you by vcx, the public ticker for private tech. My name is Austin Hankwitz, and I'm joined by my co host, Robert Croak. And the three things sitting at the top of our Rich Habits Radar this week include the private credit meltdown taking place, Rivian's new humanoid robot, and the IEA's emergency release of their oil reserves. And be sure to stick around to the end of the show where we talk about Disney's new CEO. Who knew? I didn't know Disney got a new CEO. That's kind of cool. We'll talk about it. But Robert, first, we got to dig into our first story.

[Robert Croak]

Yes, last week on the Rich Habits Radar, we told you about Blackstone's flagship credit fund, BCRED, getting hit with 3.8 billion in record redemption requests, roughly 8% of the fund's 82 billion in assets. Blackstone lifted its usual 5% redemption cap, and senior staff invested 400 million of their own money to honor every single request. Which is awesome. We told you it was a story worth watching. And it actually got worse.

[Austin Hankwitz]

It certainly did. So our first story here is the sort of private credit liquidity crisis that is spreading faster than it should, because on Monday, Bloomberg reported that Cliff Waters $33 billion corporate lending fund, which is one of the largest interval funds in the private credit space, received redemption requests, 14% of total shares outstanding. The fund is only required to repurchase 5% per quarter, so it actually capped those redemptions at 7% and told the rest of their investors to pound sand. You gotta just gotta go wait. This means half the people who wanted their money back during this quarter are not getting their money back then on

[Robert Croak]

Tuesday, Morgan Stanley disclosed that investors in its North Haven Private Income fund tried to withdraw nearly 11% of shares outstanding. Morgan Stanley actually restricted redemptions altogether. And the one that arguably started the entire chain reaction. Blue Owl Capital permanently froze redemptions on its $1.6 billion OBDC2 fund back in February. Then they had to sell $1.4 billion in direct lending investments just to provide some liquidity to these trapped investors. Saba Capitals went on to CNBC this week and warned that private credit problems are multiplying. And that's why we felt it was so important to cover this Mel meltdown again today.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah. BlackRock is finding themselves now in the mix as well. 26 billion dollar private credit fund that they've got limited withdrawals for the first time in its history. Bloomberg called it the latest sign of investor anxiety about the $1.8 trillion private credit industry where Reuters described the situation as the world's largest alternative asset managers confronting a painful choice. A block investors who want to exit or B, honor the requests and betray their guiding principles.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, it really shows you that even at that level that the knee jerk reactions happen and people get scared quickly. So here's what's important to understand. Private credit was the hottest trade in alternative investments for three straight years. Pension funds, think endowments, financial advisors and increasingly everyday retail investors poured money into these funds, attracted by yields north of 10% and the promise of low volatility. What many didn't fully appreciate is the term semi liquid does not mean liquid. These funds hold loans to private companies and it cannot easily be sold on the open market. And when too many investors want out at the same time, the fund managers have three options. Literally sell the assets at a discount, restrict redemptions or put up their own capital. And now we're seeing all three of these happening to simultaneously across the industry.

[Austin Hankwitz]

What a great breakdown. Sort of explaining what's going on about private credit in the industry, what's taking place. But what does this mean, Robert, for our listeners and their money?

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, it means that if you invested in any private credit fund, whether it's through your financial advisor, a brokerage platform or your retirement account, you need to remember to always read the fine print. Not next week, right now. How often can you withdraw? What's the quarter redemption cap? What happens when requests exceed the cap? Because what we're seeing this week is even the biggest names in finance, Blackstone, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, Blue Owl, are either limiting or outright freezing withdrawals because of this liquidity issue. That's why you need to always be on top of the fine print.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah. And we're not saying that private credits go into zero. So please do not take this, you know, breakdown as, oh, no, run for the hills. Private credit is terrible. The underlying loans and many of these funds are still performing just fine. You know, Blackstone's B CRED fund posted an 11% annualized return recently, but this is a return you can't access. Right? So it's, it's a theoretical return. It's not a real return. You don't actually get to take this money out and put it in your bank account. If you can buy a high yield bond ETF for some treasury bills on public.com and you can sell them on any given trading day in the market and you're earning, earning, you know, 5 or 6%, you need to ask yourself, is the extra 4 or 5% yield worth the idea of being trapped in an investment you can't get liquidity from? The rule we shared last week still applies. Never put your money in an illiquid investment that you might need access to in the next three to five years. After this week, I'd argue that you should probably stress test your portfolio for these illiquid investments even stronger. Again, we talk about Masterworks a lot. We talk about Vinovest, we've talked about a ton of different alternative investments and they're not bad. They're great. I'm up a ton on Masterworks, I'm up a ton on Vinovest, I'm up a ton on all these, you know, fundrise. We talk about them all the time. Yeah, I'm up a ton on all of these opportunities, but that's with money that I don't need for years from now. Because what is more illiquid than real estate, than fine artwork, than a aging barrel of whiskey or wine? Right? Like, that's how you need to be thinking about these. And unfortunately, I think a lot of people made the mistake of saying, oh, private credit, 10% yield, no problem. I go get 5% here with the T bill or 4% with the T bill, or I can get 10 with a private credit fund. I'm going to choose that. Oh, look, my account balance is going up. That's so cool to see. I'm ready to cash out. Nine months later, 12 months later, 18 months later. Whoa. Actually, you can't cash out. And here's why we don't have your money. We're taking, you know, it's a whole thing. So please read the fine print and do what Robert said.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, we talk about it a lot in the Rich Habits Network and really try to get people to understand the illiquid nature of these private credit investments. And this really helps, I think, and glad we're covering it on this episode because I just don't want people to see themselves backed into a corner because they invested in things they didn't understand and then they can't get the money out when they need it.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Now that takes us to our second story, a lot more interesting and exciting than private credit, which is Rivian CEO starting a robotics company. And now he's taking shots at Elon Musk. So the CEO of Rivan, the electric vehicle company, this week, according to the Wall Street Journal, quietly founded and separated this robotics company away from Rivian. So they spun out out of the Rivian, you know, actual company here. And they just raised $500 million from Andreessen, Horowitz and other top tier investors at a $2 billion valuation.

[Robert Croak]

Talk about quietly. We didn't even know about it till just a few days ago. And Mind Robotics is building AI powered robots designed to do real work inside of Rivian's own factories, picking up parts, assembling components, manipulating wiring, harnesses. The robots are being trained to use data from thousands of camera installed in Rivian's manufacturing plants. And Rivian said they'll have a large number of robots deployed already by the end of this year.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Now, you can't talk about this, of course, without also talking about what Elon is doing with his Optimus robots. And Tesla, it's a very similar sort of approach. Elon has been promising humanoid robots via Optimus for years now. Tesla's approach, however, and this is a little bit different than what Rivian's doing, is Tesla saying, hey, we're going to go build general purpose humanoid robots, which is a robot that can do anything from folding laundry to working in a warehouse to pouring you a glass of water. Right. It's not a specialized specific humanoid robot that Rivian's Mind Robotics seems to be building. Instead, in our opinion, general purpose humanoid robots are much harder to build than those specialized ones. Kind of like the moonshot right? Now, to be fair, Tesla has made some real progress. They've shown Optimus walking, picking up objects, even working in Tesla factories in limited demonstrations. And I think we even saw Marc Benioff have a conversation with One asking it where the Coca Cola was at the headquarters, like, oh, come follow me. And it like walked. It was, it's pretty cool stuff. So they're doing some interesting stuff there. But I'm interested, Robert, to know what's going on with mind robotics.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. Rivian is doing something very different. They're not trying to build a general purpose humanoid. They're building purpose built factory robots trained on real manufacturing data from day one. And they took a direct shot at the humanoid approach, telling the journal, doing cartwheels does not create value in manufacturing. And I think that's a pretty big shot at Tesla and everyone else building these general purpose robots. And they said the robotics industry has been flooded with flashy demos that showcase stunts rather than useful work. And their thesis is simple. If Rivian was going to partner with one of those flashy robotics companies to automate its factories, they determined we should just build the company ourselves. And they have kept it really quiet. So it'll be definitely something to watch with not only the robotics division, but also Rivian as a whole.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah, and also embodied AI as a whole. Global venture capital investments in physical AI, embodied AI robotics, things like that. They've already hit 26 and a half billion just in the first couple months here of 2026. According to Crunchbase. At the current pace they're on this year, investments in embodied AI will exceed last year's $33 billion of investments very, very quickly. I mean, just think, waymo alone raised $16 billion in February.

[Robert Croak]

So, Austin, break it down for our audience. Everyone following along. What does this mean for you and your money?

[Austin Hankwitz]

I think that this is a very clear signal that the AI investment wave is moving through different cycles. In the beginning it was very much software, and it still is software. But I think we're getting more excited about the progress made with hardware. The first phase, you know, those large language models, OpenAI anthropic, the chatbots like all that stuff. But now the second phase is happening. Physical AI robots, autonomous vehicles and other machines that interact with the real world. Because that, I mean, we're just seeing it, right? That's where venture capital money is flooding into. For investors listening right now, the question is whether the Tesla approach or the Rivian approach is going to win. Tesla's betting on that general purpose humanoid robot and is worth the. What is, I'm sure, hundreds of millions of dollars that they have spent building and researching for one of these robots, because they think the total addressable market of A general robot is massive. It's important. It's, I mean it's, it's human labor. Right. Where Rivian is betting on something very different. They're building those purpose built robots trained on real factory data. They also plan to be able to ship the robots very, very fast compared to a general robot. I mean, think about it, if you have a Rivian purpose built robot that is built entirely on fitting these wiring harnesses or moving around a specific heavy part, or doing something very specific in a factory, you can train a robot to do that pretty quickly and go do that for other factories versus think about all the general things we do as humans with our hands and our arms and our legs. Like it's, it's a very different story here. So if you're watching the robotics space, I think the divide between the purpose built robots and the general purpose robots are really what's separating investors right now. Lucky for us and those people inside the Rich Habits network, we're kind of on both sides. We've been talking about, you know, Tesla and their Optimus. I think it's going to happen one day, who knows when. But I'm a massive Tesla shareholder. We're also shareholders in purpose built robotics companies like Standard Bots and we're shareholders in Purpose and more maybe general, I guess, depending on how you think about Apptronic, like we're just doing it all. And I think that's the way that investors should play this game is they shouldn't make a hard line of like, oh, I think this is going to be it and it's of course going to do this. And if it's not, it's like it's not as black and white as investors might think.

[Robert Croak]

And I think there's a subtler point. Here is the CEO of a public traded company and he's founding a separate private startup on the side. And Rivian invested in Mind Robotics and is providing the factory data to train the AI. So it's a very close relationship and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Obviously Elon Musk is doing it throughout all of his platforms and his companies, but it's something Rivian shareholders should be aware of. And additionally those same shareholders should be aware that if he's right in mind, robotics pops off and turns into a 10, 20, 50, $100 billion robotics company. That's potentially a massive win for Rivian's current stock price, hovering right around $15 a share.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah, I mean imagine if, because Rivian, I think according to the Wall Street Journal report, We read is a massive shareholder in Mind Robotics. Right? So you've got all that equity on the balance sheet of Rivian. I mean, who knows what's going to happen with their Mine Robotics. Maybe it's, it turns into a 20 or a 50 or $100 billion company because every, you know, manufacturing plant wants to work with them. Who knows, right? This is all just hypothetical stuff here. But I mean, if they own 10, 20, 40% of mine robotics, again, I have no idea how much they own, but like what's 20% of a $50 billion company? That's $10 billion. And if Rivian's current market cap right now is 20 billion and you just slap $10 billion of equity on their balance sheet, well, that has to be absorbed somewhere. Their stock price has to pop by 50%, right? 10 billion, 20 billion. I got to make up for that. So I think that's the play here, Robert. I mean, take a, you know, moonshot dice, roll on the fact that Mind Robotics maybe does well and pick yourself up some Rivian stock. I've bought a couple shares. I'll probably build a little bit of a position here. Nothing, nothing big, but I think it's kind of a no brainer.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, purpose build robots have been around forever. And what I like about this, what they're doing with Mind Robotics is they're saying, all right, right, we're not going to chase all the fancy stuff with the humanoids. We're going to build something for a specific task that needs to be remedied within our own production and then they can scale out from there. The main thing is, will they be able to scale and be able to reach all of these other companies doing similar tasks to Rivian? So that'll be what we need to keep an eye on.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Couldn't agree more. Now our final story here is the IEA announcing the largest emergency oil release in history. On Tuesday, the international energy agencies, 32 member countries voted unanimously to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserves around the world. That's the largest coordinated release of emergency stockpiles in the IEA's 52 year history. The United States alone is contributing 172 million barrels over four months starting next week. To put all that in context, the previous record was the 2022 release during the Russian Ukraine war, which was about 180 million barrels from the IEA. This, as you guys can do the math, is more than twice that size.

[Robert Croak]

And I think the reason here is straightforward. The Iran war, which began with the operation epic fury on February 28 has knocked an estimated 8 million barrels per day offline, which is roughly 20% of global oil supply. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one fifth of the world's oil, is under direct threat from Iranian counterattacks on shipping vessels. So oil went from around $60 a barrel at the start of the year to over 91 last week, which is a 50% move in less than the last three months.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah, showing up at the pump as well. National average of gasoline jumped 17% to about 350 a gallon since these strikes began. In some regions are already approaching $5 a gallon. But if you live in California, you've been paying five bucks a gallon for probably your whole life. Drivers are paying roughly 20% more to fill their tanks than they were just two weeks ago.

[Robert Croak]

And here's the part that most people are missing. This reserve release only addresses crude oil. It does nothing for natural gas. So make sure everyone understands that. And that's a massive problem for Europe, which is far more dependent on natural gas for electricity and heating.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah, the Iran conflict, I think it's not just an oil story. It's a full spectrum energy shock. And different parts of the world are getting hit different ways. It also brings up the question about what happens after this 400 million barrel release. Strategic Petroleum reserves are finite, right? They're strategic. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has already hit a historic low level after the drawdowns during the Russia Ukraine crisis. I think President Biden started pulling those down in like 2022. Kind of refilled them a little bit, but like, we're still not that great. Releasing 172 million more barrels depletes the buffer even more. So if the Iran conflict drags on for months and there's no indication it's ending anytime soon, despite President Trump saying the war is very complete and it is going to end. So who knows? But again, the world burns through these reserves. Then what happens? The IEA doesn't have a second 400 million barrels to release. So, Robert, we got a lot of things to cover with this story. Specifically, walk me through a couple big takeaways as to what people should think about as it relates to their own portfolios.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, a few things for me. First, energy stocks are in a fundamentally different environment than they were even just 90 days ago. Go. Companies like Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips are generating enormous free cash flow at $90 oil. But here's the counterintuitive part. This reserve release is actually a bullish signal for Energy companies not bearish. If the IEA thought this was a two week disruption, they wouldn't be deploying emergency reserves at historic scale. They're telling you they believe this supply disruption is going to last. Second, this is an inflation story. February CPI came in at 2.4%, but that data was collected before oil went parabolic. The Cleveland Fed is already now casting March CPI at 2.87%. CNBC's analysts estimate that if the conflict drags through year end, CPI could reach 3.5% by December. And that directly impacts the Fed's ability to cut rates, which impacts your mortgage rate rate, your car loan rate and the valuation of every growth stock in your portfolio. And the third thing to think about is the second order effects. Higher gas prices are a direct tax on consumer every dollar spent at the pump is not a dollar spent at a restaurant, a retail store or on a subscription service. So if you own companies that depend on discretionary consumer spending, understand that the math just changed. This isn't theoretical. It's already happening right in front of our eyes. The question is, how long will it last?

[Austin Hankwitz]

I mean, you hit the nail on the head. It reminds me just kind of pull up here the XLY ETF, the State Street Consumer Discretionary Spending ETF. It's down 5 1/2% year to date and it's down, you know, from its highs 10%. But if we just look at the last month or so, right, like you said, epic fury started the the 20th, 8th. So you know, here, here's kind of where it started. It's this ETF is already down 3% in the last, what is this, two weeks? I mean, discretionary spending stocks are getting absolutely demolished right now. So I appreciate you walking us through all that. Now before we jump to other analysis on ETFs, because we always give a little shout out to ETF central.com it's important for us to talk about where support for this episode comes from. And that is vcx, the public ticker for private tech. For generations, American companies move the world forward through their ingenuity and their determination. And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all time, which we like to call the US Stock market.

[Robert Croak]

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[Austin Hankwitz]

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[Robert Croak]

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[Austin Hankwitz]

All right, Robert, let's now jump over to ETF Central.com. this is our weekly segment where we give you guys a little inside scoop loop as to what the best performing themes are taking place in the stock market right now. Broken out by ETFs. Right, the thematic ETFs that are doing really good this week and the thematic ETFs that are not doing good this week. So I'll kick us off with the themes that have done well over the last five trading days. In third place are precious metals, excluding gold, up about 5.8%. In second place is multi commodity, up about 6%. And the number one thematic ETF this week, best performer is energy, up 10%. No surprises there.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, I think it's really spot on for what we've been telling everybody about commodities and energy and we've been really right on the money there. And the three worst performers this week are new consumers and Focus. That's a pretty broad topic. Down about 4%. US industrials also down about 3.75% and niche commodities down around 13 and a half percent. So that's a little strange for me. I didn't expect to see that. But I don't know what all is in this niche commodity fund, but that's the worst performers of the week.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah. Well, speaking of commodities, Robert, it reminds me, you know, we had our market predictions episode recently and IPI was the potash stock that we talked about. Fertilizer, I think it was on January like 13 or something just in the last month. IPI is up 51% because of what's going on in Iran. So if you, you listen to that episode, you bought yourself some potash. Now is a great time to take some profits. Hope that you are up as much as we are. Again, shout out to ETF central.com great website for fund flows, holdings, performance and all things ETFs.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, and the cool thing is you mentioned IPI and Potash is to think that, that everyone listening here can hear all of this incredible information every single week through the three episodes we produce of the Rich Habits podcast, but also in the Rich Habits Network, where we talk about all of the things we see happening in the markets, in business, in real estate, through the Rich Habits Network. And then they get these lucky gems, these incredible gems like potash that you found and we've done so well with it over the last few months. So, so really appreciate that. Call out.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah, absolutely. All right, Robert, speaking of call outs, walk us through your three radar points for the episode.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, my first call out is Tesla's robo taxis raising prices in Austin, Texas. They quietly hiked fares in Austin. It's now a $3 base fare plus $1.40 per mile. So a five mile trip that used to cost around $8.25 now runs you about $10. It's still cheaper than an Uber in most cases, but this trend is definitely worth watching because the whole pitch for autonomous ride hailing was the removing of the driver, making it dramatically cheaper for consumers. So if prices are already creeping up during the pilot phase with limited competition, what happens when they actually need to turn a profit at scale? We will definitely keep an eye on that and make sure to update you guys as we see what happens. My number two call out today. Very happy about this one is the White House confirms that the crypto market structure bill is is finally ready. The White House confirmed this week that the long awaited crypto structure bill is finalized and ready for Congress. So we'll see what happens. This is the regulatory clarity the industry has been begging for. Clear rules on which tokens are securities, which are commodities, and how exchanges can operate legally in the U.S. analysts are saying this can unlock up to $2 trillion in new institutional capital flowing into bitcoin and digital assets. Because this one thing has been keeping the biggest money on the sidelines. And it wasn't price, it was legal uncertainty. And that's about to change and should be the much needed guidance to help crypto start moving forward again. So my last call out today is Kim Kardashian. She just co founded an energy drink brand called Update, targeting young women in the wellness space. It's the better for you angle, less sugar, cleaner ingredients going for the crowd that thinks Red Bull and Monster aren't for them. Say what you want about the Kardashians, but Kim turned a reality show into a $4 billion shapewear brand with SK and this playbook works. The energy drink market is worth $80 billion globally. And growing. And she just walked in with 360 million Instagram followers and her entire distribution channel.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Yeah, I mean, two call outs there. One, I'm sure this is going to be Kim K's next billion. I mean, think about a Lonnie New. That's essentially what they built. Women that are trying to do the healthy stuff, but even a lot of new was like not that healthy. And they sold the Celsius for $1.65 billion. So if Kim Kardashian can grow this, good for her. But regarding the crypto stuff. Yeah, like I still think that any, you can do any narrative you want. If it's Jane street selling, if it's, you know, Clarity act or clear act or whatever the names of these acts are, I don't care anymore. Bitcoin is in a bear market and I don't think it's going to come out of one until there is exhaustion from sellers and buyers and everyone's just like resetting. I think it's kind of probably be Q3 or Q4. Hopefully we get some clarity here from the White House and the market structure. But I would not put so much weight into depending on what a government thing could say or not say about crypto. I think, I think bitcoin just kind of moves how it wants to move.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, I agree with you 100%. It's good news for the crypto market. But I want to make sure everyone understands exactly what Austin alluded to and that is, do we think all of a sudden altcoins are going to skyrocket again and everything's going to be great? No, it's a long term game. Crypto needs a lot of maturity to really get where we expect it to go. So I don't think you're going to see a lot of change, but this is a step in the right direct direction.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Now, before I jump to my points, you guys have heard me talk about this all year long and it's the Blossom social network. We're trying to give you guys the best tools we can to help you take your investing to the next level. So if you're not using Blossom, you need to give it a try. At its core, it's a portfolio tracker. You link your brokerage, everything syncs on automatically. You got the clean visuals, performance dividends tracked, all that fun stuff.

[Robert Croak]

Yeah, the UI alone is worth it. It's one of the few investing apps that actually makes you want to check your portfolio. Not in a stressful way, but in a, wow, this is really clean and easy to use. And here's the part that really sold Austin and I. It's not just our portfolios. You can follow other investors and see their real verified holdings. These aren't screenshots, these aren't trust me bro portfolios. They're brokerage, linked and verified. You can literally see when someone adds a position, trims or holds, including myself.

[Austin Hankwitz]

The best part is it's a community of long term investors, not those get rich quick traders. So you get to begin to understand how they think about their money. We are both on Blossom. Our portfolios are over there so people can follow along in real time if they want. We think it's transparency done right. So if you want a clean portfolio tracker, a genuinely great user experience and a way to learn from real investors with real money, go check out Blossom.

[Robert Croak]

It's free and easy to use and honestly one of the best investing apps we use. Search up Blossom in the app Store, Lincoln show notes or visit blossomsocial.com on your computer.

[Austin Hankwitz]

All right Robert, my three radar points are the fact that college nil deals since June have topped 166 million. That's bonkers. Goldman Sachs's 12 month recession odds went up. That's going to be a fun one to talk about. And finally Disney's new CEO. Let's talk about the NIL College Sports Commission just dropped their latest nil report and the numbers are insane. Over 21, 000 deals have been signed worth 166.5 million DOL dollars just since June. Now here's the interesting part. 63% of the deals and 78 of the total dollar value in the last two months have came from school affiliated boosters, not brands trying to sponsor an athlete. The College Sports Commission's own CEO said schools are manufacturing nil for their athletes. Eighteen Nebraska football players are the first to formally challenge the clearinghouse in Arb after their own deals from the school got rejected. Now some top football programs are projected to spend $40 million on their rosters this year, more than double the revenue sharing cap, which I think is insane. Very, very much a pay for play market right now. I saw this headline and I was just, my jaw was on the floor because you see a lot. I don't know. I went to an SEC school, I watched a lot of football. I get excited about that stuff. I'm like 166 million and it's not even coming from companies. It's just the schools paying. It is unreal. Now let's talk Goldman Sachs's updated 12 month recession odds. The odds of a U. S Recession over the next 12 months has bumped up from a 20 chance to a 25 chance. Directly citing the Iran's war impact on oil. We talked about this a little bit. The commodity desk at Goldman Sachs now expects crude oil to average $98 a barrel through April. April, which is a 40 increase from last year's average with the worst case scenario of a hundred and ten dollars a barrel if the strain of her moves gets disrupted for even one more month. They've raised their year end inflation forecast to 2.9%. Remember, February was 2.4% and they cut their GDP growth to 2.2%. They also pushed their first expected Fed rate expectation from June June all the way to September. So they're saying, listen, the feds ain't cutting rates and they're not going to do it till September. We used to think June, now we're saying September. Unemployment is projected to peak at 4.6% over the next 12 months. And the word nobody wants to say out loud, which is stagflation, is beginning to creep up a little bit. Slow growth in the economy, unemployment, while also higher prices, inflation. Right. This is not good news. I appreciate Goldman sharing this. And be sure to come back to Monday's episode where we have Goldman Sachs's chief investment officer on the Rich Habits podcast. Seriously, she joined us. She's incredible. So come back on Monday. Listen to that episode. Now the news everyone wants to hear about. Disney's new CEO, Bob Iger. He's gone. He's handing off the keys to Josh Demero officially on March 18th. Josh has been running Disney's Parks and Experiences division, which is the unit that actually makes the company money. And now he's taking over the entire company. This is the end of a succession saga that's been dragging on for years as Bob Iger came back from retirement in 2022 to clean up the mess from Chapek. And now the company finally has the answers to what is coming next. And that is Josh Demero. Disney shareholders have been waiting for this clarity for a long time. And just by looking at the stock price this week, yeah, it's pretty flat. So maybe they're not too excited about it. But regardless, it's clarity.

[Robert Croak]

I love our radar section of these Friday episodes just because it's kind of a look into our brains of what we're actually thinking about. You know, we joked about this in the Rich Habits Network where I said I'd love to be able to see everyone's search history because if I can see their search history on their phones and their computers, I can probably tell them what their financial situation looks like. And so it's like so much fun to think about. Like you called out this nil thing, which is crazy for me being the elder statesman on the episode because, you know, back in the day, colleges made millions and millions of dollars off of their athletes and they athletes didn't get anything. And now they're paying athletes so much. It's going to be interesting to see how driven the young athletes are going to be because if they're already multi millionaires coming out of college, what's going to happen? Where's the drive and the tenacity and the hard work going to go? So it'll be interesting to see how that unfolds over the next five years.

[Austin Hankwitz]

Most definitely. Everybody, thank you so much for joining us on this week's episode of the Rich Habits Radar. Please go check out Wall Street Favorites.com podcast for a seven day free trial on Wall Street Favorites to see what Wal thinks about your own portfolio. Please consider joining the Rich Habits Network. There's a link in the show notes below for a 7 day free trial for that as well. And like I said earlier, be sure to come back on Monday to hear our conversation with Alexandra, the chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs. It's going to be a blast. We'll see you guys there. Sam.