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- [00:00]
A
Spring Black Friday is on at the Home Depot. Save on grills and patio sets that will be sure to bring your hosting game up a notch. Fire up your feast with help from the Home Depot and save on grills like the next grill four burner propane gas grill was $249. Now on special buy for one.99 or give everyone the best seat in the yard with the Hampton bay Mayfield park four piece conversation set for only $399. Save on grills and patio sets with low prices guaranteed during Spring Black Friday only at the Home Depot now through April 22nd while supplies last. Exclusion supplies seehomedepot.com Pricematch for details.
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B
K Pop Demon Hunters, Haja Boy's breakfast meal and Hunt Tricks Meal have just dropped at McDonald's. They're calling this a battle for the fans.
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C
What do you say to that Rumi? It's not a battle.
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B
So glad the Saja boys could take breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day. It is an honor to share. No, it's our honor. It is our larger honor.
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C
No really stop.
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B
You can really feel the respect in this battle. Pick a meal to pick a side but participating McDonald's while supplies last. Welcome back to the Rich Habits Radar, our Friday episode of the Rich Habits podcast where every Friday morning we're coming at you with the biggest headlines impacting you and your money. This episode is brought to you by vcx, the public ticker for private tech. My name is Austin Hankwitz and I'm joined by my co host Robert Croak. And the three things sitting at the top of our Rich Habits radar this week include the US And Iran agreeing to a two week ceasefire. The Fed minutes Trump dropping Wednesday afternoon, revealing a deeply divided committee where some officials want to raise interest rates and the announcement of the world's largest AI data center. Robert let's dig into our first story.
- [01:42]
C
Let's do it. On Tuesday night, President Trump announced that the United States and Iran had reached a provisional two week ceasefire agreement ending, at least for now, the 38 day war that has dominated the stock market for more than a month. The deal is conditional. Iran agrees to halt its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and provide safe passage for oil and gas shipments. And in exchange, Trump pulled back on his threats to widen strikes and both sides committed to begin direct negotiations starting today. Friday, April 10th.
- [02:12]
B
The market's reaction was violent in the best way possible. On Wednesday, oil fell by more than 16% per barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had the best day of the year The S&P 500 surged more than 3% and the N DAC tacked on close to 4% on the day. But here's the context that really matters. Even after that 15, 16% plunge in the price of oil, oil is still 40% higher than where it was before the war began in late February.
- [02:44]
C
And Noah Barrett, research analyst at Janice Henderson, told the New York Times that the two week ceasefire is an important first step. And this is the key quote. We're not out of the woods yet. Earth Iran has put forward what the Guardian is calling a 10 point ceasefire plan with conditions the US has not yet accepted.
- [03:02]
B
Talking about oil here, Retail gasoline is still over $4 a gallon near four year high, according to GasBuddy, which not sponsored but GasBuddy is a cool app. I use it Robert. It helps you find the cheapest gas around you. GasBuddy also said on X earlier this week that the national average could fall back below $4 a gallon within one to two weeks, assuming the ceasefire holds. So fingers crossed that's because oh my gosh, I think I spent like nearly $100 filling up my forerunner the other week and it was no fun. So Robert, what does the ceasefire mean for you and your money? For everyone listening?
- [03:37]
C
Yeah, this means it's the single biggest macro unlock we've had all year. For six straight weeks every rally was a ceasefire rumor and every sell off was that rumor being denied. Now we actually get a deal on paper and the market is pricing it in fast. So. So if you zoom out, The S&P 500 is still in the red year to date, but very much better than down 10% off all time highs like it was just a week ago.
- [04:03]
B
Now for my portfolio, the playbook this week was simple and everyone inside the Rich Habits Network got the play by play. I walked everyone through this on Tuesday during our weekly live stream. I rode this energy rally starting late January. I trimmed my position about two or so weeks ago, call it 30 40% trim and then I've now sold 85 90% of my total oil energy position. After this news has broke I realized gains between 20% and 70% depending on the specific name in the portfolio. If it's an ETF like XLE, I think I was up 20 or 25% on the VDE. I was up a ton on where USO I captured like a 62% profit IPI I realized a 70% gain like really really cool profits were made here. I made about 10 grand in the course of four or five weeks because of this. But if the ceasefire breaks weeks from now, I'll be thinking, dang, maybe I should have had more oil in my portfolio. But what's important to think about now and how I think about it, and you guys should be thinking about the same with these proceeds, where do they go? In my opinion, they go and they rotate into names that were beaten down, down, down, down because of this. Think Microsoft, think Amazon, these long term names I want to have in my portfolio. So that's exactly what I did.
- [05:23]
C
That is why active management and keeping an eye on what's happening in the markets is people to be able to have this rotation that you do so well of explaining in the rich habits network and help people get ahead of things and not have any shocks or surprises in the markets. So let's get into point number two today, and that is on Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March17 and 18 meeting. The meeting where the Fed held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% for the second consecutive time. And what those minutes revealed is a committee that is more split and than we all realized.
- [06:02]
B
Yeah. So let's jump into some quotes here from the meeting's minutes. We've got the quote of Many participants judged that in time it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations. That's good. That's what we want. We want the rates to come down. But you also had this quote. Some participants noted that if inflation were to prove more persistent than expected, it could be appropriate to maintain the target range for some time or even consider raising it.
- [06:38]
C
As of late March, some Federal Reserve officials were actively discussing rate hikes, not holds, not pauses, hikes. And that's the first time that language has shown up in the FOMC minutes since the 2022 tightening cycle.
- [06:53]
B
Now, this divide is pretty stark if you look at the summary of economic projections because according to the updated dot plot referenced by axios, we've got seven Fed expecting just one rate cut in 2026 and seven other officials see rates be held steady throughout the rest of the year. That really illustrates, Robert, how perfect of a divide it is right now. Seven over here saying no, we can, we can cut rates by about one time, maybe two. But then the other seven are saying no, we're holding it steady or even raising interest rates. That is just, it's wild comparing to back in January. Go look on Poly Market here. I think it was a 2 or 5% chance that there were going to be zero cuts, according to Polymarket. And now there's like a 35 or 40% chance of zero rate cuts in 2026. It is. It's insane.
- [07:44]
C
Yeah. And it's crazy because Fed Chair Jerome Paul's term ends in May of 2026, and Kevin Warsh, who's Trump's reported frontrunner, is set to replace him. And Axios put it bluntly, Warsh will inherit a deeply divided committee. And Warsh is generally considered hawkish, which means the transition itself could push the Fed's center of gravity towards tighter policy, just as the tariff and oil impacts are hitting consumer prices. The minutes also included this line from Reuters and the New York Times, who both flagged it. Policymakers said they would need to remain nimble as they weigh the war's impact on inflation, which continues to run above target and hiring, which has been mostly flat over the last year. So it's a lot to talk about. So much is going on with the Fed right now. Austin, break it down. What does this mean for you and your money?
- [08:36]
B
So we've been talking about and using this phrase now for years, which is don't fight the Fed. If the Fed is raising rates at the fastest pace in history like they did in March of 2022, then of course the stock market experiences that 25, 30% drawdown that we saw in 2022. But on the flip side, right, we got, of course, AI, that's exciting. But then we kind of reflect upon, well, if the Fed is cutting interest rates, so easier mon policy and we avoid an economic recession, chances are the stock market just continues to drift higher. And we entered 2026 with that expectation. Again, we were expecting between one and two rate cuts in 2026 from the Fed. And then now, because of this oil shock, because we decided to invade Iran and go to war in the Middle east, the price of oil just jumped dramatically, which put our annualized inflation rate from about 2.2, 2.3 to 3.4, 3.5. Well, a three handle is not what we need. And that is why the Fed's over here saying we're not going to cut interest rates if inflation is above 3%. That makes no sense. That's only going to make inflation run even higher. So the entire bull case of 2026 was predicated on the Fed cutting rates two, maybe three times this year as inflation normalized and the market was pricing in a June rate cut for months now. But are telling us the truth as to what's really happening behind closed doors. Not only is a June cut not happening, but a September cut might not happen either. And so as you think about these companies, these unprofitable technology companies, growth stocks, maybe small caps, all of these types of names thrive on cheap money because lower interest rates means that these companies can go into debt, borrow money to grow their businesses as cheaply as possible. But if interest rates are higher, then these companies have to spend more money on interest rate paid to the bank, which does not hit their bottom line. So if the Fed flips from when we cut interest rates to yeah, if we cut interest rates, that rotation now you see investors say, whoa, I don't know if I want to have unprofitable tech or biotech or small caps or what, you know, whatever in their portfolios. They rotate out of that stuff and say, where's my health care? Where's my consumer staples? Where are these defensive names that, that aren't that cool and fun? They now become sexy.
- [11:01]
C
Yeah. And I think this really illustrates everything you've been covering since last year about having that migration and moving the money around. So you're ahead of the curve of all these things because we can't predict wars and we can't predict any of this, but we can certainly be ahead of where we believe things are going. And I think that brings it to a point for me that everyone listening needs to stop thinking about the market and start thinking about rate sensitive versus rate insensitive, because everyone should already be thinking like this. But now we have a great example to reflect on. What year to date has been in the green and what has been in the red. If it is red, is it because they're impacted directly by war? Or more likely impacted by the Fed not cutting the interest rates and growth names and small caps are more impacted than massive, boring and profitable health care and defense sectors because of this more expensive money. Austin. Before we jump into our third story, support for the show comes from vcx, the public ticker for private tech. For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination. And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, the US Stock market.
- [12:18]
B
It did not matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of great American company. But now that reality has changed. Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public on the stock market. The result is now that everyday Americans like Robert and myself are excluded from investing and getting left further and further behind, while a select few venture capitalists get to reap all of the benefits until now.
- [12:48]
C
Introducing vcx the public ticker for private tech. VCX by fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech and many more.
- [13:04]
B
So visit getvcx.com for more information. That is getvcx.com carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges and expenses. This and other information can be found in the funds prospectus@getvcx.com this is a paid sponsorship. Getvcx.com is really interesting right now because I'm looking at the top 10 holdings. Anthropic makes up almost 21%, Databricks at about 18%, OpenAI at 10% and Drill at 7. Anthropic just surpassed Robert OpenAI in annual recurring revenue $30 billion. Now Anthropic is the AI darling. Like it's, it's pret interesting. So again, get VCX all the disclosures, understand the risk, go listen to our interview with Ben Miller, CEO fundrise, creator of vcx for the full breakdown, does a great job explaining what's going on. And Robert, let's jump to our third story. So rounding off now with the third story, the world's largest AI data center was finally announced and it's on a Department of Energy property. So while everyone was obsessing over the ceasefire that took place this week, a massive story dropped on Tuesday that I think is going to matter for the next 10 years. Years. The U.S. department of Energy formally announced that SB Energy, which is a softbank company, is partnering with the federal government to construct what's now being called the world's largest artificial intelligence data center on leased land at the Department of Energy's Portsmouth site in Ohio. The facility is part of this broader Stargate AI infrastructure project that's being built out right now by OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle and MGX.
- [14:50]
C
Wow, that's crazy. The largest data center ever announced on leased land. So imagine those farmers or whoever owned those properties of how lucky they are. And this is the first time the federal government has leased Department of Energy land specifically for private AI infrastructure. The Portsmouth site was historically used for uranium enrichment for nuclear weapons. And it has pre existing high capacity grid connections, which is the single scarcest resource for new AI data centers.
- [15:20]
B
TechCrunch reported that Google just confirmed it's working with Crusoe to build a 933 megawatt natural gas power plant in North Texas to power their new AI facility Meta announced it's adding 7 more natural gas plants to their Hyperion data center in Louisiana, bringing that single site to enough electricity to power the entire state of South Dakota.
- [15:43]
C
Intel is joining elon Musk Terrafab AI chip complex alongside SpaceX and Tesla. Terrafab is Musk's attempt to build a vertically integrated chip manufacturing complex in the United States that would serve Tesla's robotic ambitions, xai's data centers and the broader Tesla AI roadmap. And intel is bringing its foundry business into that orbit in a major deal.
- [16:07]
B
So here's the number that puts us all in perspective, Robert. Big Tech collectively spent more than $200 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025. OpenAI alone is projecting to spend 17 billion, 35 billion next year and 45 billion in 2028. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI infrastructure capital expenditures across just the hyperscalers will exceed $450 billion this year. So Robert, we've been talking about the picks and shovels game for a while now. Here's what I want people to understand. And Robert, please explain this to everyone. Right? The 450 billion is leaving their bank accounts and entering someone else's bank account. Right? So what does that, what does that pick and shovel process mean? What does it mean for everyone's money here?
- [16:55]
C
Yeah, it really means that contrary to what all the naysayers say, the AI build out is not slowing, it's compounding. This is one of the only macro themes that is completely independent of the Iran war, the Fed tariffs and any of the other stuff that everyone is obsessing about for your portfolio. The picks and shovels trade is still the best risk reward in the market. That from everything we look at, the companies that win, regardless of which hyperscaler wins are power generation, grid infrastructure, cooling systems and the utility stocks that are inking these massive data center contracts. Think Nextera, Constellation Energy, ge, Vernova, Vertiv, Eaton. These are some of the names that benefit the most from this capex spending. Regardless of whether OpenAI, Google or Meta wins the model race. DTCR is a great ETF to review for exposure to all this stuff. We like it, check it out.
- [17:52]
B
Yeah, and not just that, but Amazon because you know, we filmed these on Thursdays, just came out today with their annual shareholder letter. I've got it pulled up over here. One million robots operating across their fulfillment network. AWS AI revenue is now at $15 billion. Their chip business hit a $20 billion annual run rate. They expect 200 billion just from Amazon. Here in AI infrastructure this year. I mean, I mean talking about a long term winner in AI Amazon all day long. I've got 500 shares of the stock right now, my portfolio, hopefully I can ramp that up to a thousand if I'm lucky. But like this to me seems like the biggest no brainer alongside the DTCR name that you had called out, Robert.
- [18:34]
C
Yeah, there's just so many of these companies that are leading the charges, the Microns and the Nvidias and the Intels and all of these companies. And it's just important for everyone to keep an eye on what is happening in the markets and that's why these Friday episodes are so, so important. So I want to get into my radar points. I'm excited about them because, you know, when you see these headlines a lot of times I just don't agree with them. So it's always fun to share them on these episodes. For me, number one is Tesla's Q1 deliveries miss the mark. Love the headline. Tesla delivered 358000 vehicles in Q1 of 2026, missing Wall Street's consensus of 365,645. So they missed by about 7,600 units. Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles in the same quarter, meaning they built over 50,000 more cars than they actually sold. That's a record inventory build and a clear signal that demand is not keeping up with production. European sales have also collapsed nearly 39% amid growing brand backlash and increased competition from Chinese EV makers offering lower cost models. And the way I look at it is many investors own this stock because they're so enthusiastic about the future products like the Cyber Cab, autonomous robo taxis and the Optimus humanoid robot. But to date, 73% of the company's revenue still comes from selling passenger vehicles. For me, I'm still bullish long term. And even though the share price has been bumpy, Tesla's still up 21% over the past year. So whether you're bullish or bearish on Tesla long term, the short term picture is undeniable. They're making more cars than people are buying. And at some point that math catches up to you. So keep an eye on it, be careful, take some profits, do whatever you need to do. Personal finance is personal. That's just my take. Number two for me today is property taxes are up nearly 25% since 2019. And it's really kind of segregated into one area. U.S. property taxes have increased by nearly 25% since 2019, with the national medians now sitting at roughly $3,200 per year. And New Jersey leads the country with a median annual property tax bill of 9, $358 and an effective rate of 2.11%. New Hampshire is next at $6707, followed by Connecticut at 6573 and of course new York and Massachusetts. New York is at 6542 and Massachusetts is at $6080. Even Illinois comes in with one of the highest effective rates at 1.88%. And my last point today is Meta commits 21 billion dollars in expanded AI cloud deal with CoreWeave. The company announced this 21 billion dollar deal with Core Weaver, the Nvidia backed cloud provider, to supply dedicated AI computing capacity through December of 2032. And this is on top of a prior $14.2 billion arrangement, bringing Meta's total potential spend with Core reeve to around $35 billion. The new capacity will be powered in part of Nvidia's next generation Rubin chip systems across multiple data centers. And to put this in perspective, Meta plans to spend up to $135 billion this year alone on AI infrastructure. So that's it for me. Some crazy numbers out there, a lot of technical stuff, but I just think you just got to keep an eye on things. AI is here to stay. That's the kind of modus operandi that I believe in right now. And you just got to know what you're looking at and be able to invest wisely.
- [22:21]
B
Yeah, I think my feedback on your points here would be Tesla experiencing sort of a lull. You know, you had sort of alluded to that European sales collapsed 39% because of this growing brand backlash and of course increased competition from Chinese EV makers. But it's just one of those things where it's like, I think if we reflect upon what Tesla will be in 10 years from now, we'll kind of laugh and forget that it was a car company. We'll say, whoa, they've got robots on the moon, they've got, you know, whatever the heck they're doing over there. So like, like, who knows if these specific, like obviously as what the company is perceived by Wall street now it's a car company. So these numbers actually make a lot of sense. But if Elon really believes that it's going to be more than just that it's going to be a robotics company, then who cares about how many, you know, cars they're selling? What will really matter is how many cars are building them, the robo taxi revenue, the humanoid robot revenue, the XAI. Maybe they combine Tesla and SpaceX. Who knows what's going to happen here, but it's going to be very interesting to watch.
- [23:29]
C
Yeah, I like that takeaway. It's hard for me, even though a lot of people dislike Elon and I get it. But it's hard for me to bet against him because he is a clear leader in innovation worldwide and I think he'll figure it out, even though a lot of his plans and a lot of his numbers that he throws out there generally don't work out and come to fruition like he says. But I still think he's one of the leaders in innovation and I'm willing to stick around to find out.
- [23:54]
B
Out now Robert Before I jump to my three radar points here, this episode of the Rich Habits Radar is brought to you by Equable Shares and their hedged equity ETF ticker symbol HE D G. If you've been thinking about how to balance market exposure with a disciplined risk approach, HE D G could be right for you. It's an actively managed ETF that combines large cap US equity exposure with an options hedging strategy that seeks to mitigate downside risk with a partial put spread and covered call writing.
- [24:27]
C
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- [24:49]
B
he d g that will also be linked in the show notes below as well as the disclaimer that as with all investments, investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information and be attained@equableshares.com Please read it carefully before investing. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal Distributed by QSR Distributors llc. All right Robert, let's now jump to my three radar points. So my three radar points include Volkswagen ending production of its only American made ev which you know, sticking to the EV theme here with with Tesla, American Airlines now raising baggage fees and this one really caught my attention. I can't wait to dig in. Bill Amman's Pershing Square offering to buy Universal Music Group for $64 billion. So stay tuned for that one. All right Robert, so Volkswagen announced this week that they're Ending production of the ID4 which is their EV that's being built right now in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The only electric vehicle they build in Americ last ID4 is going to roll off the production line in the next couple weeks. The factory will be retooled so they can make their gas powered atlas and atlas cross sports. But my big call out here is this bigger picture now has become very clear. We saw Ford stop production of their lightning, we're seeing Volkswagen stop production of their ID4. Tesla is selling a lot less EVs than before. I mean it's hard to ignore that the demand signals for the EV market right now are just in the dumps. Is this an opportun? I don't know, but it's pretty interesting to reflect upon. Let's talk about American airlines raising their baggage fees for what I believe is because the price of energy has increased year to date. So American airlines just became the fifth major u. S. Airline to raise their checked baggage fee. Starting today, the first check bag on domestic and short haul international flights will go from $40 to $50 at the airport port. That's a 25 increase in price or up just about 12 and a half percent to $45. If you prepay online, that second bag jumps to $60 or $55 online. American Airlines is now following the lead of united, jetblue, Delta and Alaska, all of which bumped up their fees in the recent months. And again, it's because of the fuel prices. So when you begin to think about traveling as a family, family of four with checked bags round trip just went from $320 to $400 in alone. That's an extra $80 per trip. That doesn't show up in the CPI report because baggage fees are not in an inflation basket. But here's what you need to be doing and the action to take right now. Go find yourself a credit card that covers the baggage fees because that perk just got a lot more valuable depending on how often you fly. Now this is the last point I've got to share, Robert. And this to me is the most interesting one. Bill ackman's Pershing square offers to buy universal music group for $64 billion. Universal Music Group is home to Taylor swift, Drake, Kendrick lamar, Sabrina carpenter and basically every other music artist that you listen to. That values UMG stock at about 78% above where it was trading at last week. And right now Bill ackman's company controls about 4 and a half percent of the outstanding shares of universal music group and Their thesis, though, is pretty interesting. So they think, think music streaming revenue is the most durable recurring cash flow stream out there. UMG owns the largest catalog of copyrights on the planet. And if he does go through with his acquisition, the plan is to take them public here in America and off the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. This is his second attempt at acquiring Universal Music Group. He tried to do it with a SPAC back in 2021, didn't work. But it really like, like makes you think, Robert, with AI code and all these different things, like you see the SAS companies and the SaaS apocalypse and all this stuff, like anyone can go build their own software right now. What is something out there that nobody that, that just will not be disrupted by artificial intelligence. And this is that example. Taylor Swift, Drake, Kendrick Lamar, right? They are not disrupted by AI. No one's going to go just make AI whatever for them and just take away all those royalties. So if you own the ip, the copyrights in every single one of those streams, every single one of those fans, because those artists are going to continue to tour for a long time, all of that will go to Universal Music Group. And that of course, is durable, predictable cash flow for its investors, which I think is a very interesting thesis on AI.
- [29:32]
C
Yeah, I love these points, but the biggest one for me, with the EV inventory and sales crash worldwide, I don't want the friction or the inconsistency of being able to charge the car, being on the road and having to stop and wait for a charger, whatever that. So I think it's an infrastructure problem and it caused people to go back from the excitement of evs to back to gas cars because you don't have that inconvenience.
- [29:57]
B
Robert, what an awesome episode of the Rich Habits Radar or Friday episodes of the Rich Habits podcast. Trying to keep everyone abreast of what's going on in the markets this week, what to think about with their portfolios and how they should be positioning themselves no matter what's going on. The biggest, biggest thing here too is like, listen, no matter if it's the, a conflict in Iran, if it's the Fed cutting rates, if it's persistent inflation, unemployment, whatever you're thinking about right now, the best strategy is to dollar cost average, buy the S&P 500, buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average, buy the NASDAQ 100. Doing this consistently over a long period of time means you're buying the ups and the downs, and those downs are going to turn to green eventually.
- [30:42]
C
Yeah, I love these Friday episodes because I believe it's so fun for the audience because we're taking all of most recent information and breaking it down, how we do everything with hopefully people being able to understand it a little better and how it affects them and their money. So I think these are really impactful episodes and we appreciate each and every one of you for stopping by on Friday making these episodes a success. And just make sure if you know anyone out there, share the podcast with them because everyone has their blind spots and their issues with their personal finances. And we appreciate each and every one of you for stopping by every week.
- [31:18]
B
And as you know, these episodes are still a work in progress. It's only about a six month old series here, so please leave us a comment on Spotify with your feedback. I love it when you guys do this. I hate it when you guys talk about this. Here's what I want to see more of. Here's what I want to see less of. We want to make sure that these episodes are exactly what you guys prefer to tune into every single Friday morning. With that being said, my name's Austin. Austin, this is Robert Croke. We're signing off of the Rich Habits radar. See you on Monday.