Podcast
Risk of Ruin
Hosted by Half Kelly Media · EN
Audio documentaries about risk takers.
18episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Turning Over 70,000 Rocks
3w ago00:53:39Tap to summarizeAndrew Martin is the CEO of Fairlight Capital. Fairlight invests in small call value stocks all over the world. In this episode Andrew talks about finding these value names, his diligence process, the firm's use of AI, and how to know whether to sell a loser.Fairlight's investor letters: https://www.fairlightcapital.com/investor-lettersFollow Andrew on Twitter: https://x.com/Fairlight_CapFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkellySupport the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Always consult with a certified financial professional to consider your personal circumstances before making any investment decisions.
Transcribe →Call Security
Mar 2501:13:26Tap to summarizeJordan and Ohio Mike are part of a group of advantage players that spread their plays across casinos (physical and online), sportsbooks (physical and online), and various manufactured spending related opportunities.Subscribe to the Substack and Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Email: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly
Transcribe →Expected Goals
Jan 2101:07:04Tap to summarizePreston Johnson and a group called WAGMI United had a novel idea to buy an English football club and then use NFT sales to fund player spending. Their goal was to take a club from League Two and gain eventual promotion to the Premier League.Follow Preston on Twitter: https://x.com/SportsCheetahSubscribe to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Preston on Bet the Process: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/end-of-year-with-sports-cheetah-preston-johnson/id1291010585?i=1000743258624Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkellyEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail.
Transcribe →Let Them Eat Cake
Dec 801:40:51Tap to summarizeA very specific housing related bet.How did we go from The Big Short... to a housing shortage in such a short time?Governments in seemingly disparate places are having to take drastic measures to enable more housing development. This episode is about how those conditions materialized in the United States, and also whether anything can be done to ameliorate the situation.Kevin Erdmann is a Senior Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center.Kevin’s SubstackFollow Kevin on TwitterBen Bear is the CEO of BuildCasa.BuildCasa websiteFollow Ben on TwitterCody is a homebuilder in Oregon.Show resources:It’s Time to Build - Marc AndreessenBut not in Atherton - Marc AndreessenInstitutional SFR landlord on ResiClub podcastSupport the show: Subscribe to the Premium SubstackEmail me: riskofruinpod at gmailFollow me on Twitter: @halfkelly
Transcribe →Trading Games
Oct 1701:05:58Tap to summarizeKris Abdelmessih writes the Moontower newsletter which is required reading for any edge seeking generalist who wants to learn about the world of volatility.Kris got his start as a trader over 20 years ago with Susquehanna. He talks about getting the job, SIG’s training program, and the “degenerate atmosphere.” Kris also talks about his career where he moved from pit to pit, and then ultimately became a portfolio manager at a vol focused hedge fund.Kris also has options analytics software - Moontower AI - and you can follow him on Twitter - @KrisAbdelmessih.References from the episode:David Sklansky - Getting the Best of ItMichael Lewis - Liar’s PokerAdvantage Podcast Mixtape Vol IAdvantage Podcast Mixtape Vol IIFollow me on Twitter - @halfkelly.
Transcribe →Trial and Error
Sep 1101:08:17Tap to summarizeThomas started as a losing bettor, and then learned to win. Eventually he won so much that a regulated sportsbooks stole several million dollars from him.He talks about CLV, harvesting bonuses, faking the NBA overnight market, parlays, SGPs, round robins, and VIP rewards.Follow Thomas on Twitter: https://x.com/t_stephens97Subscribe to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/p/trial-and-error?r=ckepv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=falseFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly
Transcribe →Casino Schemes
Aug 1101:56:19Tap to summarizeJamie, Steve, and Kyle are advantage players. They talk about beating casino games including carnival games, automatic roulette wheels, and sweepstakes slot machines.Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/References from the episode:Laurence Scott on Gambling With an Edge.Mark Billings on Gambling With an Edge (related to biased wheels), and also using computers.Mark Billings on Risk of Ruin.The Eudaemonic Pie.Bloomberg article on roulette.A Man for All Markets - which describes Ed Thorp’s effort to beat roulette.Kyle’s appearance on Gambling With an Edge.Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly
Transcribe →Betting on Chaos
Aug 1101:11:19Tap to summarizeDomer is a prediction market trader, and is one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket. He talks about his journey from Intrade, to Predictit, to Polymarket. He also talks about the 2024 election, which was a rollercoaster. It featured highs - like backing Kamala Harris before President Joe Biden had even dropped out of the race - and also lows, like being short Trump on election night.Domer also talks about unraveling the mystery of the so-called French Whale.Domer on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344Domer on Twitter: https://x.com/DomahhhhSupport the show by subscribing on Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.comFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly
Transcribe →Life's Too Short
Aug 1000:53:32Tap to summarizeMarc Cohodes made a living exposing fraudulent companies, and profiting when their stock prices collapsed. But the life of a short seller is spent on a high wire because executives willing to engage in fraud don't play by the rules when their freedom is at stake. Marc tells the stories of the adversity he's faced holding public companies accountable. Marc recounts the war stories from his shorts of iomega, TCBY, Lernout & Hauspie, Novastar Financial, Jos. A Bank, Bally Manufacturing, Direct Focus, and more.Follow Marc on Twitter: @alderlaneeggsMarc's Mimedx Website: http://petiteparkerthebarker.com/Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkelly
Transcribe →Credit Card Arbitrage
Aug 901:01:57Tap to summarizeMatt writes the blog "Miles Earn and Burn" which stands alone in the credit card space. He has no ads on the site, and he writes about advanced strategies that don't make it into the mainstream travel blog world. The post that got me interested in having Matt as a guest said basically: go to your local credit union and see if there's anything that you might be able to profit from. In the advantage play world that would be called scouting. In the manufactured spend world it's known as probing. https://milesearnandburn.com/index.php/2023/09/29/taking-a-stroll-to-the-local-financial-district/Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
Transcribe →