Risky Bulletin: Between Two Nerds - "Lights out!"

Podcast: Risky Bulletin | Hosts: Tommy Wren & "The Gruk"
Date: January 12, 2026
Episode Theme:
A sharply analytical and wry exploration of the alleged U.S.-led cyber operation to cut power in Caracas during the extradition of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The hosts dissect whether cyber tactics were involved, their significance to modern military actions, and what this means for the role of cyber in warfare going forward.

Episode Overview

Tommy Wren and the Gruk (Craig) kick off the year by tackling the high-drama military operation in Venezuela where the U.S. allegedly kidnapped Nicolás Maduro. The focus is on the news that cyber attacks may have played a critical role by shutting down power in Caracas, enabling the operation’s success. The episode digs into the plausibility, evidence, and wider implications for cyber operations as integral (or not) elements of modern warfare.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Incident: Did Cyber Attacks Turn Out Caracas’ Lights?

• Initial Reports ([01:10]):
  • Headline claims ("Trump suggests US use cyber attacks to turn off lights in Venezuela") spur debate about whether a U.S. cyber operation actually caused the capital blackout.
  • Despite dramatic coverage, evidence is thin and conflicting. There are local reports of both cyber-induced outages and physical sabotage (e.g., photos of a "shot out" substation).
• Insight:
  • Both hosts conclude it’s plausible there was a blend of cyber and physical attacks. The ambiguity might be intentional or due to the fog of such operations.

"So it's cyber being very connected is I think what we—"
— The Gruk [02:24]

2. The Role of Cyber Operations: Essential or Nice-to-Have?

• Debate on Necessity ([04:37]):

  • Both hosts believe cyber probably played a role but question if it was absolutely decisive.
  • The U.S. had long preparation time, means, and motivation—prime conditions for using cyber to disrupt infrastructure ([05:26]).
  • Key Quote:

    "Turning off power is absolutely something that cyber operations can do. Like it's being demonstrated.”
    — Tommy [04:56]

• Military Value ([06:25]):

  • Cyber fits the U.S. military's conceptual model of modern warfare: "turning off the lights" is an archetypal goal for cyberwar scenarios.
  • The Gruk: “Turning the lights off is sort of the flagship US idea of cyber war.” [06:25]
  • However, cyber is framed more as an enabler for special operations than as a hammer for large-scale war.

• Analogy: Cyber as a “garnish” or "mint sauce"—helpful and neat, but not necessarily the main ingredient ([13:31] - [13:56]).

3. Practicalities, Limitations, and Evolution of Cyber in Operations

• Operational Realism:
  • Cyber is best for temporary, non-destructive disruptions, aligning with the U.S.' goal not to permanently cripple infrastructure they may later have to rebuild ([10:24]).
  • Long lead-times and unpredictability make cyber unsuitable as a primary military tool, but optimal for precise, one-off operations ([11:34]).
• Historical Analogy:
  • Compares to past attempts like using specialized bombs to short-circuit power (Iraq), which often failed. Cyber is arguably more reliable for such temporary effects ([12:17]-[13:14]).

4. Integration and Institutionalization of Cyber

• Turning Point? ([16:18] - [17:29]):
  • The Politico headline claims a “turning point for US Cyber warfare.” Hosts agree—but primarily in terms of perception and integration, not capabilities:
    • Cyber now has “a seat at the planning table” ([18:07]).
    • Future operations will always discuss some cyber role, even if limited.
• Quote:

  “I think it is a turning point in terms of...from now on, someone will say something about cyber and it'll just be part of the operation.”
  — Tommy [16:55]

5. Community & Industry Reflections

• Changing Vibes Post-Ukraine ([18:53]-[21:45]):
  • Russian cyber underperformance in Ukraine led to doubt and even existential angst among cyber professionals.
  • This successful (U.S.) operation helps restore faith: "we're back, baby" ([20:49]).
  • Recognizes cyber's role as enabler rather than a silver bullet weapon.
• Gartner Hype Cycle Analogy:
  • Cyber’s journey: past the “peak of inflated expectations," through a “trough of disillusionment,” and now ascending the “slope of enlightenment” ([21:52], [27:28]).

6. Special Operations & Cyber: A Natural Match

• Spec Ops Book Analogy ([23:51]-[27:28]):
  • The hosts compare cyber operations to the classic attributes of successful special forces missions: secrecy, rehearsed tactics, preparation, rapid execution, and surprise.
  • Both domains emphasize intense prep and precision over brute force.
  • Gruk: "I think that those things that make hacking successful and that make special operations successful mean that they are a good match." [26:16]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Real Value of Cyber in the Operation:

  “Was this [cyber] your sort of lamb shank in the middle or...the little sprig of parsnip that you put on top? Like a little cyber garnish?”
  — Tommy [13:31]

• Military Bureaucracy Reality:

  “If you are a military command like Cybercom...you want to make sure that you have your hat in the ring visibly, that you are taking part...”
  — The Gruk [14:10]

• On Trump’s Comments About the Operation:

  “It was dark. The lights of Caracas were largely turned off due to a certain expertise that we have. It was dark and it was deadly.”
  — Tommy quoting Trump [04:01]

• Cyber’s Place in Future Operations:

  "From every operation...from now on, someone will say something about cyber and it'll just be part of the operation.”
  — Tommy [16:55]

• The Gruk sums up the long view:

  “This is literally the only time that turning off the grid makes sense. Right, I've said it, I'll admit.”
  — The Gruk [11:34]

• On the Return of Optimism in Cyber Circles:

  “And we're back, baby.”
  — Tommy [20:49]

Key Timestamps

• 01:10: Media claims of U.S. cyber blackout in Venezuela, discussion of supporting evidence
• 04:01: Trump’s remarks fueling speculation on use of cyber
• 06:25: The symbolic significance of “turning off the lights” as cyberwarfare
• 10:24: Preference for cyber as non-destructive disruption, not infrastructure demolition
• 13:31: “Cyber garnish”—debating importance vs. necessity
• 16:18: Discussion of headlines labeling this a turning point for U.S. cyber operations
• 18:07: Cyber gets “a seat at the planning table”
• 20:49: Cyber experts’ morale boost—“we’re back, baby”
• 23:51: Parallels drawn between cyber ops and classic special operations
• 27:28: “Slope of enlightenment”: cyber finds its appropriate role

Conclusion & Takeaways

This detailed, insightful, and tongue-in-cheek episode positions the alleged US cyber blackout in Venezuela as an inflection point—not because cyber became decisive, but because it proved itself a valued, integrated enabler in the toolbox of modern special operations. For listeners, the takeaway is less about the technology and more about institutional change: cyber is officially out of the shadows, always on the mission planning menu, even if it’s often just the “mint sauce.” The evolving narrative in the security community reflects a maturing understanding of what cyber can and cannot do—and when it really shines.