Risky Business News - Episode Summary: “Srsly Risky Biz: How Trump will drive covert operations”
Release Date: November 14, 2024
In this episode of Risky Business News, hosts Patrick Gray and Tom Uren delve into the intricate implications of Donald Trump’s return to the political arena, particularly focusing on cybersecurity, intelligence operations, and international cyber policies. The discussion navigates through Trump's potential influence on covert operations, the future of cybersecurity policy, and recent international developments affecting the digital landscape.
1. Trump's Election and Its Implications for Cybersecurity and Intelligence
a. Cybersecurity Policy Under Trump
Tom Uren begins by analyzing the anticipated impact of Trump’s election on cybersecurity. Reflecting on his newsletter, Tom suggests that while cyber policy may remain "boring" with sensible yet unambitious executive orders, the intelligence community (IC) is poised for significant upheaval.
Tom Uren [01:27]: “Trump is not really interested in cybersecurity policy, the security part, and that means there's space for good people to come up with sensible policy. It’s not audacious or ambitious because Trump doesn’t care, but it’s still good.”
b. Intelligence Operations and Covert Actions
The conversation shifts to the more volatile sphere of intelligence operations. Tom characterizes Trump as an “activist president” willing to exploit all available tools without the typical restraint concerning consequences.
Tom Uren [03:59]: “Trump is an activist president. He believes in doing stuff and he believes in taking advantage of all the tools that the US has.”
A notable example discussed is the administration’s contemplation of extreme measures against Julian Assange, highlighting a potential escalation in covert operations.
Patrick Gray [03:43]: “We should probably point out what you mean by strong action there, which is that they should either kidnap him or assassinate him.”
This exchange underscores the unpredictable and potentially aggressive maneuvers the intelligence community might undertake under Trump’s leadership.
c. Appointees: Loyalty vs. Expertise
Patrick Gray raises concerns about the quality of Trump's appointees, suggesting a shift from experienced professionals to loyalists who align ideologically rather than bringing requisite expertise.
Patrick Gray [06:08]: “I think you're more likely to wind up with appointees who match, you know, who check ideological boxes rather than experience boxes.”
Tom concurs, noting the early trend of Trump selecting loyalty over qualifications from the outset of his term.
Tom Uren [06:51]: “Trump has, from the get go, chosen people who are loyalists rather than people who had a background, necessarily.”
This dynamic raises questions about the long-term efficacy and stability of policies influenced by potentially less qualified appointees.
2. UN Cybercrime Treaty: West's Changing Stance
The discussion transitions to the controversial UN Cybercrime Treaty, examining why Western nations like the US and UK, traditionally wary of the treaty, are now supporting it despite reservations about its misuse by authoritarian regimes.
Tom explains that Western support hinges on maintaining a presence within the treaty's framework to influence its development and mitigate extraterritorial repression.
Tom Uren [12:32]: “We think that we are better off being inside the tent and trying to influence how it develops.”
Patrick interprets this as a strategy to endorse the treaty nominally while selectively applying its provisions.
Patrick Gray [12:35]: “We'll vote for the treaty, but we're going to ignore it.”
The hosts acknowledge the skepticism around the treaty’s effectiveness in curbing cyber misuse by adversarial states like Russia and China, emphasizing the limited practical impact despite its formal adoption.
Tom Uren [13:54]: “If those countries want to be repressive, they will be repressive.”
3. Canada’s Ban on TikTok’s Officers: National Security Implications
The episode further explores Canada's perplexing decision to deem TikTok a national security threat by expelling its officers and personnel from the country. Tom critiques the move as counterproductive, arguing it diminishes Canadian leverage over TikTok without addressing the underlying security concerns.
Tom Uren [14:52]: “It's just totally baffling the security risks from TikTok... it's a massive media business with a whole lot of influence over what people are looking at and it could potentially shape what people think.”
Patrick highlights the absurdity of the decision, noting the absence of a ban on the app's usage and questioning the rationale behind removing TikTok’s local presence.
Patrick Gray [15:42]: “There's no restriction there. It's just like, get your officers out of here. Which means there's no point of contact for the Canadian government anymore. It's bizarre.”
Tom dismisses the ban as mere “National Security Theater,” emphasizing that the action serves more as a symbolic gesture than a substantive solution.
Tom Uren [16:07]: “It's just like less leverage doesn't actually address the problem.”
4. Additional Insights and Closing Thoughts
Towards the end of the episode, Patrick and Tom touch upon the broader unpredictability of a Trump-led administration, acknowledging both the opportunities and challenges it presents for cybersecurity and intelligence operations. They reiterate the importance of understanding the underlying drivers that shape policy directions, especially under a leadership style characterized by impulsivity and a willingness to employ state power without conventional restraints.
Patrick Gray [10:21]: “Trump loves to keep everyone guessing. He loves foreign leaders or adversaries to feel uncertain about things.”
Tom Uren [10:21]: “It's entirely his instinct to do stuff like get things done, move forward, damn the consequences.”
The hosts conclude by recognizing the complexity and volatility of the current geopolitical climate, driven in part by Trump's strategies and decisions.
For more in-depth analysis and additional news items covered in this episode, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the Risky Biz newsletter at News Risky Biz.