Risky Bulletin Episode Summary: "Srsly Risky Biz: Why America Needs Its Own Salt Typhoon"

Release Date: February 20, 2025
Host: Patrick Gray
Guest: Tom Uren, Policy and Intelligence Editor at Risky Biz

1. Introduction

In this episode of Seriously Risky Business, host Patrick Gray engages in a deep-dive conversation with Tom Uren about the evolving landscape of cybersecurity threats, specifically focusing on the advanced persistent threat (APT) group known as Salt Typhoon. The discussion centers on whether the United States should adopt a retaliatory cyber strategy similar to Salt Typhoon to counteract Chinese cyber operations.

2. Mark Warner's Call for US Cyber Retaliation

The episode kicks off with Patrick Gray highlighting a controversial stance taken by Senator Mark Warner, the then-head of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Warner, during his speech at the Munich Security Conference, advocated for the U.S. to launch a retaliatory cyber campaign against China, mirroring Salt Typhoon's operations targeting American telecommunications.

Notable Quote:
Patrick Gray: "Senator Mark Warner... said that the remediation costs of cleaning up after the Salt Typhoon campaign targeting American telcos are really, really high and the United States should threaten China with essentially doing the same thing to them."
[01:10]

3. Asymmetry in US and Chinese Cyber Operations

Tom Uren discusses the inherent asymmetry between U.S. and Chinese cyber infrastructures. While the U.S. predominantly operates surveillance-free networks with strong end-to-end encryption through platforms like Signal and WhatsApp, Chinese telecommunications are built to facilitate surveillance, lacking robust encryption.

Notable Quote:
Tom Uren: "There's a very, very little end-to-end encryption in Chinese networks. So I actually think this would give... NSA... an advantage when it comes to what intelligence you can get."
[02:01]

4. Risks and Costs of Retaliatory Cyber Actions

The conversation delves into the potential repercussions of the U.S. adopting a Salt Typhoon-like approach. Tom emphasizes the significant remediation costs and the complexity of executing such operations without being detected. Moreover, Patrick points out the risk of the U.S. undermining its own surveillance-friendly over-the-top applications by engaging in large-scale cyber offensives.

Notable Quotes:
Patrick Gray: "We're well aware that NSA probably almost certainly conducts collection operations in Chinese networks... but he is advocating for a... retaliatory operation."
[01:50]

Tom Uren: "There is some reputational damage. The Chinese will say, 'Oh look, the US is the biggest hackers of all.'"
[07:21]

5. Recent Cyber Operations and Attribution

The episode highlights recent cyber incidents, including the targeting of Pacific nations by Chinese APT40, and actions taken against Russian Z servers by Australia's Signals Directorate (ASD). Tom notes the increasing willingness of smaller nations like Samoa to publicly attribute cyberattacks to China, marking a shift in geopolitical cybersecurity dynamics.

Notable Quotes:
Patrick Gray: "Samoa has explicitly called out a Chinese APT crew, which is APT40."
[13:50]

Tom Uren: "Australia has never done by itself... the Pacific is actually a bit of a geopolitical hotspot because China's trying to muscle in."
[14:28]

6. Changing Norms in Cybersecurity

Patrick and Tom explore the evolving nature of cyber operations, where secrecy is increasingly giving way to transparency. The successful takedown of Russia's ZED servers by the ASD, despite limited public details, signifies a potential shift towards more open cyber defense strategies.

Notable Quotes:
Patrick Gray: "The fact that ASD is actually out there, at least talking to one journalist who works for the Sydney Morning Herald about this is certainly a sign of the times."
[16:31]

Tom Uren: "Times are changing... what's the real reason that you're trying to remain secret?"
[12:58]

7. Conclusion

Wrapping up the discussion, Patrick Gray underscores the necessity for the U.S. to reconsider its cyber strategies in light of emerging threats and shifting geopolitical alliances. Tom Uren echoes the sentiment, advocating for a rebalancing of covert operations and transparency to effectively counteract adversarial cyber activities.

Notable Quote:
Patrick Gray: "Times are changing. It seems to be the theme of this week's podcast."
[15:33]

Tom Uren: "It's a really interesting idea and it is worth thinking about and talking about."
[07:57]

The episode concludes with a mutual agreement on the importance of adapting to the new cybersecurity landscape, emphasizing proactive measures and strategic transparency to safeguard national interests.

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This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of the complexities surrounding retaliatory cyber operations, highlighting the need for nuanced strategies in the face of sophisticated global threats.