Podcast Summary: Roadmap to Referrals

Episode: #397 – How to Calculate Referrals for 2026
Host: Stacey Brown Randall
Date: January 20, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Stacey Brown Randall tackles one of the most common annual questions among business owners looking to leverage referrals: "How do you figure out what your referral numbers should be for the year ahead?" Stacey walks listeners step-by-step through her data-driven process, using a practical example, to set realistic referral goals and KPIs for 2026 without resorting to asking, incentivizing, or manipulating. Her approach centers on making referrals a natural part of business growth, ensuring your targets are grounded in reality rather than wishful thinking.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Referral Calculation Dilemma

• Many business owners are tempted to pick "impressive, round" referral goals without a concrete reason.
• Stacey: "We just don't want to pull numbers out of the sky, right? We just don't want to pull round fat numbers because they sound good and impressive." [01:11]

2. The 3 Essential Data Points

To set meaningful referral goals, Stacey outlines three key metrics you must gather:

1. Number of clients needed for a good (and/or great) year
2. Number of current, active referral sources
3. Average number of referrals received per year
   "[These are] the three pieces of data... Number one, how many clients do you need in a year to have a good year? ...How many referral sources do you have? ...And... the third piece of data... how many referrals referred prospects do you typically receive on average in a year." [02:40–03:09]

3. Case Study: Micah’s Numbers Broken Down

Stacey uses Micah as a sample case:

• Good Year Goal: 80 new clients
• Active Referral Sources: 20 people (even though he has 50 potential "centers of influence," or COIs)
• Average Referrals Per Year: 25
• Close Ratio: 80% (needs ~100 prospects to reach 80 clients, and ~120–130 prospects for a "great" year of 100 clients)

"Micah was telling me ...he needs 80 clients a year. He has about 20 people a year who are referring him. And from those 20 people... he's getting on average, about 25 referrals in a year." [04:44–05:10]

4. The Referral Gap and Its Implications

• There's a significant gap between referrals received (25) and clients needed (80).
• Even with a higher close ratio, Micah needs far more referral opportunities to hit targets.
• Stacey stresses that most businesses will see referrals as only part of their prospect pipeline pool.
• "To get the majority of prospects coming from referrals, that is going to take time and commitment to following the process..." [11:56]

5. Scaling Up: What’s Realistic?

• Doubling from 25 to 50 referrals is possible by getting current referrers to send more.
• Tripling to 75, or even quadrupling to 100, requires cultivating both more referrals per source and new sources.
• "My ability to say, I think we'll double what you're going to do in a year, ...has everything to do with who's referring you now and how many of those people that we have right now." [13:03]

6. Sources of Additional Referrals: Strategizing Growth

• Get more from current referrers: Focus on increasing referrals per source (e.g. from 1 to 2+ per year).
• Activate non-referring COIs: Out of 50 potential, only 20 are referring. Try activating another 5–7.
• Cultivate referrals from clients: Micah isn’t getting any from current/former clients. Even a cautious goal of 10 new client referrers could add significant lift.
• Build new referral sources: "Now, we're going to cultivate new referral sources that'll get us that remaining 10... So that gets us to 75." [25:40–25:55]

Timestamped Breakdown:

• 05:50 – Gap Analysis: Where are the numbers not adding up?
• 15:20 – Realistic Stretch Goals: "If his 20 folks are giving about one referral a year, and we can get them each to give two referrals... we can get that from one a year to two a year or three a year, right? ...that allows us to go from averaging 25 referrals in a year to closer to that 40, 45, 50 range."
• 19:45 – Looking at Non-Referring COIs: "Maybe we could get five to seven new referral sources out of this group... let's say five of them do it. So if five of those people start referring, that's five more referrals."
• 22:33 – Cultivating Clients as Referrers: "Maybe we can pick up another 10 from there. All right, so now we're at 65..."
• 24:10 – New Referral Sources: "Now, we're going to cultivate new referral sources that'll get us that remaining 10."

7. On the Unpredictable Nature of Referrals

• Human factors mean results aren’t perfectly predictable from year to year.
• "If somebody referred you four referrals last year, there's no formula in the world or guarantee ...that would say that they're absolutely going to refer you four this year." [27:31]

8. Power Referral Sources: The Game Changers

• Develop and identify "power" referrers (those who send 8–10+ referrals a year).
• While you cannot always predict in advance who will become a power source, nurturing incoming high-volume referrers is vital.
• "If you had like one or two people and they were each giving eight to 10 referrals in a year themselves ...they are uniquely positioned to come across your ideal client a lot." [28:31]

9. Setting Metrics and Tracking Progress

• Tie your goals to: number of client referrers added, number of current referrers who increase, number of new sources cultivated, and the total volume of annual referrals.
• "So that's how we create our metrics. We know, hey, we're aiming to get 10 clients to start referring. That's the metric we're going to track. ...the metric lead up to the overall goal..." [29:52]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Setting Realistic Standards:
  "We just don't want to pull numbers out of the sky, right?" — Stacey Brown Randall [01:11]
• On Doubling/Tripling Referrals:
  "My ability to say, I think we'll double what you're going to do in a year, I think we'll triple or I think we'll quadruple has everything to do with who's referring you now..." [13:03]
• On Power Referrers:
  "If you had like one or two people and they were each giving eight to 10 referrals in a year themselves...that right there... Now that means they are uniquely positioned to come across your ideal client a lot." [28:31]
• No Guarantees:
  "There's no formula in the world or guarantee...that they're absolutely going to refer you four [times] this year." [27:31]
• Importance of Foundation:
  "We look at where you are, where you want to go, and then I start figuring out, okay, to close that gap. It's going to come from groups of humans." [28:55]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:11 – Importance of not setting arbitrary referral goals
• 02:40–03:09 – The three critical metrics to pull
• 04:44–05:55 – Breaking down Micah’s real example
• 11:56 – Commitment needed to make referrals a bigger piece of your pipeline
• 15:20 – How to increase referral numbers from existing sources
• 19:45 – Activating non-referring centers of influence
• 22:33 – The untapped potential of client referrals
• 24:10 – Expanding referral sources outside current network
• 27:31 – The ebb and flow of human-driven referrals
• 28:31 – Cultivating and leveraging power referrers
• 29:52 – How to set and track referral metrics

Actionable Takeaways

• Run your own numbers: Start with your client goal, current referrers, and average annual referral count.
• Identify and grow: Focus on increasing referrals from current sources before adding new ones.
• Cultivate new COIs and client referrers: Turn untapped relationships into sources.
• Set layered goals: Track referrals by source type, not just by total volume.
• Monitor and adjust: Remember, referral flow is unpredictable year-to-year; continual nurturing and strategic tweaks are key.

For more details and to access resources mentioned, visit the show notes at:
staceybrownrandall.com/397