Sina, the analyst behind Bitcoin Intelligence and the man who helped popularize the power law, the quantile bands, and the momentum model, is back for his first interview in over a year.

Last time he was on, he said the $250K calls for 2025 were dangerously overextended. Bitcoin topped at $126K in October and is now down over 50%. He nailed it. Now he is back to tell you what his models are saying right now, why two of them currently disagree, and what actually needs to happen to end this bear market.

Here is what we get into:

• How Sina called the October top when the entire market was screaming $200K to $250K

• Why this bear market hit harder than even he expected and the hidden leverage that caused it

• The three headwinds holding Bitcoin back that almost no one is talking about

• How AI drained the development capital that used to build on Bitcoin and what that means for adoption

• Why falling inflation could be the single catalyst that ends the bear market

• The counterintuitive truth about why Bitcoin rips when inflation falls and not when it rises

• The power law chart showing Bitcoin at its most undervalued position ever recorded

• The VPLI chart quantifying exactly how oversold Bitcoin is right now

• The quantile model showing Bitcoin at the lowest band in years and what that means for DCA

• The momentum model explained and why it is still flashing red despite the recent bounce from $58K

• How to balance the quantile deep value signal against the momentum red signal

• How to know if you are overallocated and the single best sign to watch for

• Why following influencers into leverage trades is one of the worst financial decisions you can make

• How Sina called out Bitcoin treasury companies a year ago when it got him attacked and unfollowed

• The preferred stock math that proved the treasury model was structurally flawed from day one

• What Saylor got right, where he went wrong, and why the narrative shift from sound money to paper products is a problem

• Why spending Bitcoin is not the enemy of Bitcoin and the fallacy Saylor promotes

• What Bitcoin actually needs to return to all time highs and why it cannot happen on speculation alone

Links:

X: https://x.com/Snz_BTC

Substack: https://bitcoinintelligence.substack.com/