Russian Roulette – "A Battlefield Update from Mike Kofman" (June 20, 2025)
Podcast: Russian Roulette
Host: CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
Guests: Max Bergman (A), Maria Snegovaya (B), Michael Kofman (C)

Overview

In this episode, Max Bergman and Maria Snegovaya welcome back leading military analyst Michael Kofman for a comprehensive and candid update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict as of mid-2025. The discussion covers the evolving dynamics on the battlefield, manpower struggles, strategic shifts, a notable Ukrainian drone attack inside Russia, Russian adaptation, and the broader trajectories for both sides. The conversation is grounded, sharply analytical, and occasionally humorous, offering clarity and sobering realism on the current state, challenges, and options facing both belligerents and their external partners.

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: Where Does the War Stand?

(02:03 – 07:18)

• Stabilization and Adaptation:
  • After a precarious fall and early winter for Ukraine, both weather and exhaustion slowed Russian advances.
  • Ukraine made a conscious, effective adaptation—expanding drone units (including a drone brigade), increasing use of mines and prepared defenses, and leveraging technology to offset manpower shortages.
  • "You see the Russian military making increased gains again akin to the way things were looking in August, September of last year...but the front is not collapsing." (C, 05:54)
• Russian Tactical Focus:
  • Russian offensives have intensified, focusing on creating pockets around Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, threatening advances in Sumy, and other axes of attack.
  • Still, their progress, while significant in some operational areas, remains generally incremental.

2. Ukraine’s Manpower Dilemma

(07:18 – 11:52)

• Persistent Challenges:
  • Manpower shortages remain Ukraine’s dominant issue—a challenge since fall 2023 that has not abated.
  • Ukraine’s mobilization rate is insufficient for sustaining forces at the front, limiting unit rotation, and risking fatigue and AWOLs (absences without leave).
  • On proposals to lower the conscription age: “If people wanted to go and fight, they've had the opportunity to sign up and many...have already gone and joined the military...I don't think it'll solve the problem.” (C, 08:56)
• Russian Advantage:
  • Russia continues to out-recruit Ukraine, bringing in ~35,000 men per month—replacing losses and allowing force expansion.

3. Strategic Shifts in Ukraine’s Approach

(11:52 – 18:30)

• From Offense to Defense:
  • Ukraine has shifted from preparing for large-scale offensive operations to a posture emphasizing defensive resilience, local counterattacks, and attrition.
  • "...he [Syrsky] sort of pursued a strategy of active defense, which is, you know, in some areas, positional defense, but where possible, active defense, where Ukrainian forces locally counterattack." (C, 12:55)
• Lessons from the Kursk Offensive:
  • The Ukrainian Kursk raid illustrated remaining offensive potential but ultimately yielded unfavorable attrition and operational results.
  • Notably, resources expended during the operation may not have justified the minimal gains: “...that’s probably one of few operations where the loss ratio of equipment between Ukraine and Russia was one to one or worse.” (C, 17:20)

4. Ukrainian Innovation: The "Spider’s Web" Drone Operation

(18:30 – 23:11)

• Daring Attacks Inside Russia:
  • The Ukrainian security services covertly smuggled drones into Russia, launching a precisely coordinated attack that destroyed a significant portion of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet.
  • "I thought it was a very, very interesting and innovative attack...It dealt a fairly significant blow to Russian long range aviation...maybe 10% of the overall fleet, but probably 20-25% or more of the operationally ready fleet." (C, 19:30)
• Strategic Implications:
  • While tactically and psychologically impactful—revealing significant Russian security lapses—such attacks will not, by themselves, shift the war’s balance.
  • Longer-term, they pose a degradation risk for Russia's ability to project power beyond Ukraine.

5. Russian Grand Strategy and War Aims

(23:11 – 38:25)

• Sustained Pressure, Open-Ended War:
  • Russia is likely to push military operations through 2025, aiming for grinding attrition rather than breakthrough, with hopes of outlasting Ukrainian resistance and Western support.
  • "It’s clear that the Russian military intends to keep pushing through 2025...The safer assumption is the war is going to keep going rather than they're going to make a deal." (C, 24:43)
  • Negotiations remain stalled; Russian maximalist aims persist, with hope that macroeconomic factors or Western fatigue might eventually tip the balance.
• US and European Support Trajectory:
  • The future of US aid is uncertain, with no new large packages expected under the Trump administration.
  • "Ukraine is increasingly more self sufficient for day to day battlefield needs...Europeans have picked up the slack significantly from the US over the last two years." (C, 30:45)
• “The Unhappy Middle”:
  • The situation is neither catastrophic nor optimistic for Ukraine or its backers—US and EU support is adequate to sustain Ukraine, but insufficient for substantial victories; Russia, meanwhile, anticipates the long war as potentially to its advantage.

6. War of Attrition and Misplaced Optimism

(38:25 – 39:49)

• Both sides are waiting for the other’s collapse; each is clinging to narratives of imminent breakdown on the adversary’s side.
• Russian narratives about an impending Ukrainian collapse are not supported by battlefield realities.
• Western hopes for a decisive economic or sanctions collapse in Russia are, similarly, unlikely to bear fruit in the short- to mid-term.
  • "I'm a big believer in the impact of sanctions. I also believe that the sanctions community is by far the most optimistic policy community…in Washington D.C." (C, 37:21)

7. Russian Military Adaptation & Future Innovations

(39:49 – 46:22)

• Drones and Electronic Warfare:
  • Russia is ramping up production of various drone types, loitering munitions, precision strike weapons, and electronic warfare capabilities.
  • “Russian drone units are now blowing fiber optic cable drones routinely at a distance of 20, 25 km...with a max range of 50km...allowed them to attack a lot of capabilities that are in the rear and close off ground lines of communication.” (C, 41:07)
• Battlefield Efficiency and Doctrine:
  • Russian reliance on incremental, positional warfare persists; tactical innovation is mixed with negative adaptations (e.g., risky small-vehicle assaults).
  • There is a growing mismatch between Russian high command’s operational plans and what is achievable on the ground.
  • Despite significant degradation in Russian force quality, improvements have been made in dynamic targeting and integration of new technologies.
  • "In general...quality degrades, but integration and dynamic targeting improve—they can't break through, but they're harder to interdict." (Paraphrased summary, various points 44:26–45:50)

8. Command, Decision-Making, and Leadership Dynamics

(46:22 – 47:56)

• Anecdotal observation: Russian military briefings to Putin may focus on micro-gains, presented with zoomed-in maps to create an exaggerated sense of progress.
  • "...the map is like barely scale like 10x10km and you're showing how much they've taken over the last month. He’s like, look, we've taken 50% of this...But you zoom out...and it's a small city." (C, 46:47)
• Universal tendency among military officers to creatively "demonstrate progress" to leadership, regardless of nationality or context.

Notable Quotes

• On Adaptation and Attrition:

  "You can adapt to your disadvantages and emphasize your comparative advantages, but manpower is going to remain an issue throughout the course of this war. That's just the way I see it." (C, 10:46)

• On Russian Grand Strategy:

  "What's really being tested in the fighting is...what is less sustainable—Russian offensive effort or Ukrainian defense. That's the matter in question because it informs negotiation and both these parties’ expectations..." (C, 26:56)

• On the Ukrainian Drone Attack (“Spider's Web”):

  "I thought it was a very, very interesting and innovative attack...It dealt a fairly significant blow to Russian long range aviation...But we shouldn't straw man things and say, hey, does this attack change the dynamic in the war? No, it's not meant to. But it's a significant impact." (C, 19:30, 21:21)

• On Leadership Decision-Making:

  "Sometimes people genuinely don't know the plan because one person happens to decide the plan and he doesn't know what it is." (C, 24:49)

• On Mutual Overestimation and Wishful Thinking:

  "Russian leadership has been consistently telling itself something that observably isn't true, that Ukraine's on the verge of collapse...And I've seen this quite a bit in the West, especially earlier this year…just sort of wishful thinking about the Russian economy." (C, 34:25)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• War overview and current dynamics: 02:03 – 07:18
• Ukraine’s manpower and adaptation: 07:18 – 11:52
• Strategic defense vs. offense, Kursk campaign: 11:52 – 18:30
• The "Spider’s Web" drone strike: 18:30 – 23:11
• Russian strategy, US/EU support, war sustainability: 23:11 – 32:42
• Long war dynamics, mutual misconceptions: 32:42 – 39:49
• Russian military innovation and adaptation: 39:49 – 46:22
• Leadership perception and military reporting: 46:22 – 47:56

Final Thoughts

This episode delivers a sobering, nuanced, and jargon-free assessment of the Ukraine war in mid-2025—from the churn of the frontlines, through the reciprocal adaptations of both sides, to grand strategy and policy realities in Washington, Brussels, and Moscow. While there are tactical innovations and moments of daring, the fundamental dynamics—a grinding war of attrition, imbalances in manpower and industrial base, and political stalemates—persist. Kofman is cautious about quick fixes and remains skeptical of over-optimistic predictions from all quarters.

The overall tone is clear-eyed: the war is set to continue, with both sides waiting for external or internal shifts to break the impasse, while each seeks to adapt faster than the other and international support inevitably waxes and wanes.