Russian Roulette Podcast – Four Years of the War in Ukraine (Live Event)
Date: February 26, 2026
Host/Moderator: Max Bergmann (A), with panelists Maria Snegovaya (B), Hanna Notte (D), Michael Kimmage (C), and JP Gresh (E)
Episode Overview
This special live episode marks the four-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Host Max Bergmann is joined by a panel of Eurasia and Russia experts for a comprehensive discussion on how the war has transformed regional and global dynamics. The conversation critically assesses Vladimir Putin's expectations vs. reality, battlefield developments, Western and Russian resilience, global realignments, ongoing negotiations, and the prospects for the future.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Reflecting on Four Years of War: Putin’s Perspective
-
Nervousness to Acceptance
- Michael Kimmage observes that, despite initial visible anxiety, Putin "does seem to speak about this with comfort and ease" now, having adapted the war into a status quo element of his regime. (05:07)
- However, many "doors" Putin hoped would open—Ukraine’s collapse, a Trump administration in Washington, deeper European fragmentation—have not materialized:
"A lot of doors are shutting around Vladimir Putin...he may try to resist that circumstance...but I don't think he can ignore it." – Michael Kimmage [06:40]
-
Unfulfilled Goals
- Hanna Notte agrees, arguing that Putin had hoped for a short war and quick victory, expecting limited rupture with the West:
"This is not the war that Putin hoped for...he banked on a short war and a quick victory...he’s prepared to see this through, but it’s not the reality that Russia had hoped for." – Hanna Notte [07:38]
- Hanna Notte agrees, arguing that Putin had hoped for a short war and quick victory, expecting limited rupture with the West:
2. Ukrainian and Russian Societal Resilience
-
Ukraine’s Unexpected Resilience
- All panelists agree Ukraine’s capacity to resist has exceeded initial expert expectations. (07:38)
-
Russian Tolerance and Internal Dynamics
- Maria Snegovaya underlines how Russian society’s adaptiveness—and lack of protest—has surprised Western analysts:
"I think the war has been quite revealing in exposing many of the assumptions about Russia that we've gotten wrong...there’s basically no serious resistance to it, no serious resentment accumulated..." – Maria Snegovaya [09:55]
- She notes the Russian state’s ability to suppress dissent and the population’s lack of tools to pressure the Kremlin.
- Maria Snegovaya underlines how Russian society’s adaptiveness—and lack of protest—has surprised Western analysts:
-
Ideological Turn
- She also highlights the unexpected "ideational" – not just territorial – nature of the war for Putin, complicating efforts at peace talks. (11:40)
3. Military Developments and Battlefield Stalemate
-
Stalemate and Attrition
- JP Gresh, formerly US defense attaché in Moscow, describes the current battlefield as highly static, dominated by sensors, drones, and persistent artillery fire:
"It's characterized by a very static, defensive nature of war where there's not a lot of territory exchange...every little offensive movement...is picked up by a sensor and can be taken out by artillery or FPV [first-person view] drones." – JP Gresh [16:14]
- Russian air strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure continue at high rates, with Ukraine’s air defense intercepting most, but the “sheer volume” favors Russia. (16:45)
- JP Gresh, formerly US defense attaché in Moscow, describes the current battlefield as highly static, dominated by sensors, drones, and persistent artillery fire:
-
Casualties and Recruitment Challenges
- Both Russia and Ukraine face mounting manpower issues, but Gresh foresees potential acute strains on Russia:
"The manpower strain is actually more acute for Russia than Ukraine...failure to meet that replenishment rate...could exacerbate some internal sort of discord..." – JP Gresh [48:28]
- Both Russia and Ukraine face mounting manpower issues, but Gresh foresees potential acute strains on Russia:
4. Sanctions, Economics, and Resilience
-
Sanctions: Painful, Not Decisive
- Maria Snegovaya acknowledges Russia’s resilience and adaptation in the face of massive Western sanctions—thanks to experience, state incentives, and support from China/Global South. Still, strains are beginning to show in 2025-2026:
"For the first time, we see that the economic strain finally came to Russia in a very significant manner...the [budget] deficit much larger than they expected..." – Maria Snegovaya [20:34-21:52]
- Russian energy revenues are down, and economic trade-offs (raising taxes, killing startups) are causing “unpleasant” strains, though not regime-threatening yet. (22:00)
- Maria Snegovaya acknowledges Russia’s resilience and adaptation in the face of massive Western sanctions—thanks to experience, state incentives, and support from China/Global South. Still, strains are beginning to show in 2025-2026:
-
European Adaptation
- Max and others commend Europe’s rapid energy diversification and resilience, with German industry surviving the abrupt end of Russian gas imports. (24:15–26:02)
"Europe's major economies essentially were forced to quit cold turkey. And I don't think they're really set on turning back." – Max Bergmann [24:15]
- Max and others commend Europe’s rapid energy diversification and resilience, with German industry surviving the abrupt end of Russian gas imports. (24:15–26:02)
5. Russia’s Global Position and Realignment
-
Foreign Policy Refocused on Survival
- Hanna Notte emphasizes that "persevering in this war against Ukraine and the West became the organizing principle" of Russian foreign policy, leading to:
- Reoriented trade (oil to China, India)
- Shadow fleets and sanctioned goods “roundabout”
- Military tech deals with Iran, DPRK
- Efforts to shape narratives in the non-Western world, with some success in pitching the war as anti-colonial [26:53]
- But, she adds, dependence on China is growing and long-term Russian power projection is likely weakened:
"The flip side of the Chinese support is the growing Russian dependence on China and asymmetry in that relationship. That is a long-term challenge for Russia." – Hanna Notte [29:48]
- Hanna Notte emphasizes that "persevering in this war against Ukraine and the West became the organizing principle" of Russian foreign policy, leading to:
-
Declining Arms Sales and Loss of Leverage
- Russia’s role as a major arms exporter is sliding, overtaken by France, partly due to the war’s demands.
"France has overtaken Russia as the second largest seller of arms in the world." – Max Bergmann [32:47]
- Russia’s role as a major arms exporter is sliding, overtaken by France, partly due to the war’s demands.
6. Ukraine: Evolution in Wartime
-
Heroic Image vs Reality
- Michael Kimmage comments on the shift from “Hollywood script” expectations—heroic Ukraine, Zelenskyy as Churchill—toward a more sober reality:
"It’s not that all of the elements of that narrative are false, but they are romantic and mythic...reality has exerted itself...Ukraine’s mountain to climb when it comes to joining Europe is a steep mountain." – Michael Kimmage [37:23]
- Michael Kimmage comments on the shift from “Hollywood script” expectations—heroic Ukraine, Zelenskyy as Churchill—toward a more sober reality:
-
Survival and Innovation
- Despite setbacks, Ukraine’s resilience is real: continued pluralism, innovation, managing through a difficult winter, and maintaining societal cohesion.
7. The State and Prospects of Negotiations
-
Ceasefire Talks and Diplomatic Friction
- Michael Kimmage acknowledges the Trump administration’s ongoing ceasefire negotiations but cautions:
"Doing this without deep consultation with the European Union...seems to me like diplomatic malpractice...if even an inch of progress is made for Russia in that domain...it makes the diplomacy also much more difficult." – Michael Kimmage [40:27]
- Michael Kimmage acknowledges the Trump administration’s ongoing ceasefire negotiations but cautions:
-
Limits of Western Pressure
- Hanna Notte suggests Trump will face resistance if pushing Ukraine into a “bad deal,” and that Putin is unlikely to lower maximalist demands, making a real settlement elusive in the near term. (42:39)
-
Putin’s Options: Lower-Intensity War Likely
- Maria Snegovaya and others believe we're "on the pathway towards this war of attrition going forward," with Putin possibly opting to grind on rather than seek a real ceasefire. (44:47)
"We don't quite understand what is Putin...Does Putin even know...what is the information that he receives? Judging by his statements...clearly that [he] completely wrong. And that's the key problem, which is one of the problems with autocracy in general...he will keep doubling down." – Maria Snegovaya [45:09]
- Maria Snegovaya and others believe we're "on the pathway towards this war of attrition going forward," with Putin possibly opting to grind on rather than seek a real ceasefire. (44:47)
8. The Next Four Years: A “Long War” Paradigm
-
Multi-Year and Generational Strategies
- Kimmage argues for a generational horizon, likening today’s moment to "1948 and the Cold War is beginning" where normalization and real settlement will require decades, post-Putin changes, and possibly war crimes trials and reparations. (52:47)
"It’s essential to think of this as a generational struggle...the threat is not going to disappear...build up as much conventional military capacity as possible and...the diplomatic wherewithal..." – Michael Kimmage [52:47]
- Kimmage argues for a generational horizon, likening today’s moment to "1948 and the Cold War is beginning" where normalization and real settlement will require decades, post-Putin changes, and possibly war crimes trials and reparations. (52:47)
-
Europe’s Growing Responsibility
- With US assistance waning, Europe must "repeat again and again and again" its financial and military commitment to Ukraine (54:44).
-
Russia’s “Long Game” and China’s Centrality
- Notte sees Russia's dependence on China only deepening, with implications for both Eurasian and global security.
"30% of Russia's export revenue comes from China and 40% of imports come from China. There's just no alternative..." – Hanna Notte [55:48]
- She warns of further militarization and Russian-Chinese cooperation, possibly affecting regions like the Taiwan Strait.
- Notte sees Russia's dependence on China only deepening, with implications for both Eurasian and global security.
-
Western Industry and Assistance
- JP Gresh notes European defense industrial mobilization is underway, especially in ammunition, drones, and joint production with Ukraine, but more is needed in logistics and intelligence to match long-term needs. (59:26)
-
Russian Society and War’s Aftermath
- Maria Snegovaya highlights worrying trends for Russia's future: state destruction of liberal institutions, youth indoctrination, the reintegration of traumatized/convict soldiers, and persistent regime durability, meaning no quick liberalization post-war. (61:38)
"It's clear that some sort of consequences for the Russian society will be very detrimental...it's hard really to envision a quick liberalization or democratization after the regime ends...this army of 70 [may] want to make use again." – Maria Snegovaya [63:41]
- Maria Snegovaya highlights worrying trends for Russia's future: state destruction of liberal institutions, youth indoctrination, the reintegration of traumatized/convict soldiers, and persistent regime durability, meaning no quick liberalization post-war. (61:38)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Putin's Mood:
"Not a mood of desperation...but [Putin is] not ignoring that a lot of doors are shutting around him." – Michael Kimmage [06:40]
-
On Ukrainian Resilience:
"I would have been among the analysts who thought if Russia is going to invade...this is probably going to be a short war...But this is not the war that Putin hoped for." – Hanna Notte [07:38]
-
On Sanctions:
"There was an assumption that sanctions were in some ways a kill switch to the Russian economy. That clearly wasn't the case." – Max Bergmann [24:15]
-
On Generational Struggles:
"We’re kind of at the beginning...we’re in 1948 and the Cold War is beginning. And we have to think in those arcs today." – Michael Kimmage [52:47]
-
On Russian Domestic Fallout:
"We also see the growing criminalization of society... courts are actually quite lenient towards [soldier crime] cases. Imagine what happens when 700,000 of those come back." – Maria Snegovaya [63:12]
Key Timestamps for Important Segments
- 05:07 – Michael Kimmage: Putin’s psychological journey and closed “doors”
- 07:38 – Hanna Notte: War not as planned, Ukraine’s resilience
- 09:55 – Maria Snegovaya: Surprising Russian societal acceptance
- 16:14 – JP Gresh: Attrition and technological evolution of battlefield
- 20:34 – Maria Snegovaya: Sanctions' impact and Russia’s economic strain
- 26:53 – Hanna Notte: Russia’s new global strategy and dependence on China
- 32:47 – Max Bergmann: German and French military resurgence; Russian arms decline
- 35:11 – Michael Kimmage: The “myth” and reality of Ukraine at war
- 40:27 – Michael Kimmage: On current US-led negotiations and diplomatic malpractice
- 44:47 – Maria Snegovaya: Explaining Putin’s preferred options and incentives
- 48:28 – JP Gresh: Russian manpower issues as a rising vulnerability
- 52:47 – Michael Kimmage: The need for a generational, not short-term, strategy
- 55:48 – Hanna Notte: Russia-China relations & their strategic weight
- 59:26 – JP Gresh: European defense mobilization, support limits
- 61:38 – Maria Snegovaya: Russian internal consequences, post-war prospects
Conclusion
The panel paints a sobering, deeply informed picture: Ukraine and the West have shown remarkable resilience and adaptation, foiling many of Russia’s ambitions. Yet, with stalemated battle lines, intensifying attrition, and growing structural shifts on both sides, the war enters a new phase as a fundamentally generational conflict. Russia’s growing dependence on China and persistent autocracy are matched by Europe’s awakening to long-term responsibility for Ukrainian survival and regional security. Any negotiatied peace is likely years away, and all parties must steel themselves for what is increasingly “the long war.”