Russian Roulette: "Hanna Notte on What the Israel-Iran War Means for Russia"

Podcast: Russian Roulette
Host(s): Max Bergman, Maria Snegovaya
Guest: Dr. Hanna Notte
Release Date: June 27, 2025
Duration (main content): ~00:06–00:35 MM:SS

Episode Overview

This episode of the CSIS "Russian Roulette" podcast features Dr. Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and non-resident senior associate at CSIS. The hosts and Dr. Notte dissect recent escalations between Israel and Iran—focusing on missile strikes, nuclear threats, and the broader repercussions for Russia’s foreign policy, its leverage in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and the future of Russia-Iran cooperation.

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Russia’s Calculus in the Israel-Iran War

[01:22–06:34]

• Dr. Notte outlines how Moscow's initial perception was that turmoil in the Middle East could benefit Russia, mainly by diverting Western attention away from Ukraine and allowing Russia to weaponize allegations of Western hypocrisy.
• However, the direct Israel-Iran escalation exposed Iran as weak and highlighted Russia’s limited power projection capacity in the region.
• Russia prefers “small fires”—calibrated regional tensions where it can play a broker—rather than all-out escalation, where it lacks capacity to intervene.
• “Russia in the Middle East has always looked towards fueling what I would call small fires, right? Calibrated tensions and conflict… But the moment that you have a big escalation like we just saw… Russia doesn’t actually have the capacity or the bandwidth to be really a factor.” (Hanna Notte, 05:37)
• The fall of Assad and the weakening of Iran has left Russia with notably less influence and leverage; observers compare Israel's swift military success in the region to Russia's stagnation in Ukraine.

2. Evolution of Russia-Israel Relations

[06:34–12:05]

• The relationship has always been multi-layered: historical ties, a significant Russian-speaking Israeli population, economic links, and strategic coordination over Syria.
• Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, relations cooled, particularly after Russia adopted a more pro-Palestinian stance post-October 7 and with anti-Semitic rhetoric increasing in Russian official discourse.
• Even so, Israel values keeping communication lines with Moscow open, seeing Russian presence in Syria as preferable to Turkish dominance and wary of Russian-Iranian defense cooperation.
• “Putin is not an anti-Semite, not at all. There are certain things he would not do to jeopardize the security of the state of Israel. But… if he has to use anti-Semitism instrumentally because it serves him in the war in Ukraine, he will do it.” (Hanna Notte, 10:48)

3. Russia’s Domestic Position and Rhetoric

[12:05–17:46]

• At the UN, Russian diplomats vocally condemn U.S. strikes. Yet, Moscow’s practical response is muted: Putin sends best wishes to Tehran, but offers no tangible support.
• Hanna Notte highlights Russia’s careful rhetorical balance—condemning Israel only moderately compared to past events, as it recognizes Israeli military supremacy and avoids overcommitting to Iran.
• The threat of instability in Iran is a genuine Russian concern, given possible impacts on the South Caucasus and Russia’s declining regional bandwidth.
• “There’s a long-standing concern in Moscow about unrest in Iran… conflict with Iran destabilizing the South Caucasus.” (Hanna Notte, 16:53)

4. Projecting Forward: Russian Policy and Iran’s Nuclear Program

[17:46–25:00]

• Given the U.S. and Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Russia has limited leverage over what happens next.
• Despite its legacy as a JCPOA participant, Moscow’s ability to shape diplomacy is constrained—especially since even Iran is likely disappointed by the lack of concrete Russian support.
• Iran’s reliance on Russia for reconstituting defense capabilities is now uncertain; trust may shift toward China depending on Russia’s ability to supply air defense systems—hampered by its own war requirements.
• “I think from an Iranian perspective, you might be disappointed with what Russia has or hasn’t done for you… but you will still want Russia and China involved in [diplomacy], because you are even less likely to trust the United States.” (Hanna Notte, 21:31)

5. Military and Defense Supply Dynamics

[25:00–27:29]

• With depleted S-300/S-400 stocks and manufacturing overstretched by the Ukraine war, Russia cannot resupply Iran effectively.
• Iran’s air defense vulnerabilities are acute; the likelihood of turning to other suppliers, particularly China, is increasing.
• “That, I think, is a huge problem right now for Iran, which is airspace is now completely open to the Israelis… because they are completely… at the mercy effectively of Israeli air force.” (Max Bergman, 25:38)
• Israel’s October strikes impaired Iranian-operated Russian air defenses; there’s no clarity on Russian willingness or capacity to provide replacements.

6. Limits of the Russia-Iran Military Partnership

[27:29–31:32]

• Hanna Notte asserts that Russia’s critical dependence on Iranian drones peaked early and is now subsiding—thanks to domestic production and redesign efforts, plus heavy Chinese support.
• Iranian military aid to Russia (e.g., drones, Fatah 360 missiles) is now less crucial; North Korea and China have emerged as bigger supporters for Moscow.
• “There was some shells and ammunition, but I don’t think that the quantities were so meaningful… Russia cannot have an acute need for Iranian missiles. Otherwise, we would see them on the battlefield.” (Hanna Notte, 28:47)

7. Economic and Strategic Ramifications

[31:32–32:29]

• Economic cooperation—such as the North-South Transport Corridor and Caspian trade—is mostly aspirational; instability in Iran would jeopardize these already limited plans.
• Prolonged Middle East conflict saw only a brief, unsustained spike in oil prices—not enough to salvage Russia’s fiscal outlook.

8. Wider Implications and Final Analysis

[34:04–35:39]

• Dr. Notte urges skepticism of the “axis of upheaval” thesis (Russia-China-Iran-North Korea strategic alignment), as recent events show hesitation and limited commitment between partners when tested.
• On the global stage, rising “might makes right” dynamics (what Notte calls a “more Hobbesian world”) may not ultimately benefit Russia, as it is too weakened by its Ukraine quagmire to take advantage of the new order it helped foster.
• “This is perhaps the kind of world that Russia thinks is more amenable to it… But actually, Russia doesn’t have the means to really play in this kind of world, especially while it’s still bogged down in an unwinnable war in Ukraine.” (Hanna Notte, 34:54)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Russia’s Real Capabilities:
  • “The moment that you have a big escalation like we just saw… Russia doesn’t actually have the capacity or the bandwidth to be really a factor.” (Hanna Notte, 05:37)
• On Instrumental Use of Anti-Semitism:
  • “If he has to use anti-Semitism instrumentally because it serves him in the war in Ukraine, he will do it.” (Hanna Notte, 10:48)
• On Iranian Disillusionment:
  • “From an Iranian perspective, you might be disappointed with what Russia has or hasn’t done for you during this phase of active combat.” (Hanna Notte, 21:31)
• On Military Dependencies Shifting:
  • “Russia's reliance on Iran reached its peak maybe one year into the war… and has subsided since.” (Hanna Notte, 27:35)
• On the “Axis of Upheaval”:
  • “What are these partners willing to do for each other when push comes to shove? And I think we've actually seen both Russia and China being real cautious…” (Hanna Notte, 34:17)
• On Russia’s Hobbesian World:
  • “This is perhaps the kind of world that Russia thinks is more amenable to it… but actually Russia doesn’t have the means to really play in this kind of world.” (Hanna Notte, 34:54)

Key Timestamps

• Context Setting: [01:22–06:34]
• Russia-Israel Relationship: [06:34–12:05]
• Russian Rhetoric and Internal Concerns: [12:05–17:46]
• Projecting Forward & Iran-Russia Nuclear Dynamics: [17:46–25:00]
• Comparison of Air Defense and Supply Constraints: [25:00–26:22]
• Limits of Russia-Iran Defense Partnership: [27:29–31:32]
• Economic and Energy Ramifications: [31:32–34:04]
• Axis of Upheaval and Concluding Analysis: [34:04–35:39]

Takeaway

This episode unpacks how the current Israel-Iran conflict has exposed the limits of Russia’s ability to shape events in the Middle East and revealed the fragility of alliances between Russia, Iran, and China. Far from reaping the benefits of regional instability, Moscow finds itself sidelined—its resources drained by Ukraine, its traditional partners weakened, and its capacity for decisive intervention further curtailed.

Summary in Hanna Notte’s words:
“It’s really a mixed balance sheet for them, I think.” (34:58)