Russian Roulette – “Jade McGlynn with an Update from Ukraine”
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
Recorded: August 1, 2025 | Released: September 4, 2025
Host: Max Bergmann (MB)
Guest: Jade McGlynn (JM), Senior Associate at CSIS & Research Fellow, King’s College London

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth interview with Dr. Jade McGlynn, a leading expert on Russia’s war in Ukraine, who reports directly from Ukraine. The discussion spans the military and civilian situation in Kharkiv and Kupiansk, Ukrainian innovations in defense, the harsh realities of life under Russian occupation, recent political developments inside Ukraine, and prospects for negotiations and Western support. McGlynn’s candid, on-the-ground insights offer listeners a clear-eyed view into both the hardships and resiliency displayed in Ukraine’s ongoing struggle.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Situation on the Ground in Kharkiv and Kupiansk

• Persistent Threats to Kharkiv:
  Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city and of major symbolic importance, endures constant Russian bombardment due to its proximity (40km) to the Russian border.

  • “The city is a very hardy city, people sort of keep on, but of course it's suboptimal to be bombed every night, I think, to put it mildly.” — JM [01:58]

• Kupiansk’s Strategic Importance:
  Rising concern as Russian forces slowly advance toward Kupiansk, a critical railway hub essential for Ukrainian logistics.

  • Russia is “just throwing men at the problem and slowly but surely advancing.” — JM [03:55]
  • If Kupiansk falls, “Ukrainians would have to pretty much abandon this logistical center,” which would be “serious” but not imminent—possibly two to three months away. — JM [04:25]

• Public Mood in Kharkiv Region:
  Residents display exhaustion over constant attacks but show little panic about catastrophic front line collapses; adaptation and a longing for normalcy prevail.

  • “It's a marathon, it's not a sprint… People are really tired, understandably.” — JM [07:11]

2. The Air War and Ukraine’s Defensive Adaptation

• Air Defense Limitations:
  Kharkiv is comparatively less protected than Kyiv—due to proximity to Russia, lack of time to react, and the high cost/limited number of Patriot systems.

  • “Most of the air defense in Kharkiv is… guys driving around in jeeps and pickup trucks with jammers, with machine guns.” — JM [11:30]

• Russian Drone Adaptation:
  Russia has evolved its drone technology with AI-guided “Heran” (Shahed) models, making them harder to shoot down and more capable of evading electronic defenses.

  • “Now it might see... the AI system will work out... ‘that maternity hospital actually has loads of electronic warfare jammers’... so instead I'm going to go to this children's hospital nearby instead because that doesn't have any electronic warfare around it.” — JM [12:33]

• Ukrainian Ingenuity and the ‘War of Adaptability’:
  Ukraine’s defense is a story of continuous innovation, mass-producing new drone interceptors and rapidly updating tactics and electronics.

  • “What you really want is not... one innovation... What you want is a really good team that is really good updating a general type of product.” — JM [13:38]

3. Ukrainian Defense Industry: Pride and Realities

• Domestic Production Up:
  Ukrainian-made defense products constitute about 40% of what’s used on the battlefield, with soldiers preferring locally produced tech due to its practicality, low cost, and adaptability.

  • “They mainly want Ukrainian products” — JM [15:34]
  • “A lot of western systems just don't work. They just don't work.” — JM [15:55]

• Contrasts with Western Procurement:
  Denmark’s direct funding into the Ukrainian defense industry is lauded for its efficiency vs. the UK’s more domestically focused procurement.

  • “In Denmark, what they've done is... just going to put it directly into your defence industries in Ukraine.” — JM [18:04]

• Supply Chain Challenges:
  While Chinese components are prevalent due to cost, efforts are underway (e.g., with Taiwanese collaboration) to localize chip production and secure non-Chinese supply chains, even at higher cost.

  • “Those drones are a little bit more expensive... but... still way cheaper.” — JM [21:33]

4. Life in Russian-occupied Territories

• Escalating Repression:
  Since the failed 2023 counteroffensive, the occupation has intensified—ubiquitous surveillance tech, policing, forced assimilation.

  • “Now in the occupied territories, if you buy a phone, it comes preloaded... with special facial recognition and other forms of software…” — JM [23:15]
  • “There are at least 16,000 Ukrainian civilians... currently in Russian prisons for suspected pro-Ukrainian sympathies.” — JM [26:29]

• Resistance Continues Despite the Risk:
  Violent and nonviolent Ukrainian resistance persists, including sabotage, assassinations of FSB officers, but social-media “flag” stunts are largely dismissed as unrealistic.

  • “Nobody is walking around Melitopol with a Ukraine flag. That's not happening in Melitopol. I mean that's just, it's just not realistic…” — JM [25:24]

• Economic and Demographic Collapse:
  Massive depopulation: 9 million previously, now ~3.6 million (excluding Crimea). Unemployment and homelessness in Mariupol sky-high, with urban life in Donetsk and other cities severely degraded.

5. Forced Migration and Settler Colonialism

• Encouraging Ukrainians to Leave:
  Pro-Ukrainian residents are often pressured to leave; properties are confiscated and given to settlers (frequently from far-east Russia or Central Asia).

  • “They will often not stop you from leaving. But the thing is, they will just confiscate your house.” — JM [31:05]

• Psychological Toll:
  “The psychological anger and hatred that, that spurs certainly makes these people very energetic...” — JM [31:36]

6. Domestic Politics and the Anti-corruption Crisis

• Zelenskyy's Misstep:
  Signing of law centralizing anti-corruption bodies under the Prosecutor General (a presidential appointee) sparked Ukraine’s first large-scale protests since 2022, seen as a power grab.

  • “It was just absolute sheer arrogance. And I think it was, I think at the time I described it as a stab in the back to those fighting at the front.” — JM [33:57]

• Civil Society Response:
  Protests were mature and calculated, balancing outrage with awareness that public division could be exploited by Russia.

  • “It was very impressive how Ukrainian society, just ordinary Ukrainians stood up and protested about it, but also in a really clever and mature way because they knew that, you know, Russia was going to make absolute hay with it…” — JM [34:14]

• Complex Domestic Dissent:
  Criticism of Zelenskyy does not equate to defeatism or pro-Russian sentiment; many pro-defense Ukrainians are among his sharpest critics.

  • “Sometimes that's a weird framing I see abroad: ‘oh, people are against Zelensky and that means they don't want to fight the war anymore.’” — JM [35:14]

7. Prospects for Negotiations and Perceptions of the West

• Peace Talks? Not Serious (for Now):
  No real belief in ongoing “negotiations,” with Russia seen as unserious, sending ideological figureheads rather than true policy-makers.

  • “I don't think anybody here pays any attention to the negotiations, really, because everybody knows they're not serious.” — JM [38:41]

• Russia’s End-Goals:
  Russia aims to either destroy Ukraine militarily or turn it into a dependent state like Belarus. Pressure on Russia is increasing but not fast enough to force meaningful change soon.

  • “They're trying to achieve in the political field what they cannot achieve on the military side. That's all.” — JM [38:58]

• Ukrainian View of the U.S. and Europe:
  The withdrawal or delay in American support is met pragmatically; pressure is on Europe to do more and to recognize Ukraine’s importance for continental security.

  • “There's a really much more sort of pragmatic approach to it. Like, well, yeah, that's a real nightmare that... we're going to be losing a lot of American support, but we've just got to get on with it.” — JM [42:51]
  • “Among many [in Europe], there's a tendency to just... moan about President Trump, which, yeah, it's fine, but ultimately it's our continent and we're responsible...” — JM [41:00]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It's a marathon, it's not a sprint. And I don't think you have that kind of adrenaline of the sprint that maybe you did have in 2022. But people are really tired, understandably.” — JM [07:11]
• “Most of the air defense in Kharkiv is... just guys driving around in jeeps and pickup trucks with jammers, with machine guns.” — JM [11:30]
• “A lot of western systems just don't work. They just don't work.” — JM [15:55]
• “In Mariupol, the unemployment rate is between 80 to 83%. The homelessness rate... is 40%.” — JM [27:49]
• “I think the chances for peace this year are still very low. I think as we get into 2026, it sort of depends what types of pressure are put on Russia.” — JM [39:57]
• “If Ukraine, God forbid, falls, then Russia's our problem. Plus... they've got all of Ukraine's resources. So even not on a moral case, just in a purely kind of national self interested case like the UK, who is the UK's main enemy? Well, it's Russia and there's another country that's fighting Russia. It's pretty common sense that you would help that country.” — JM [41:43]
• “It also had this very weird effect that... of making people like Zelenskyy again. Not because they really liked him, but... hey, that is our Zelenskyy. We can beat him. You cannot beat him.” — JM [43:36]

Key Timestamps

• Kharkiv/Kupiansk update: [01:46–05:10]
• Public sentiment in Kharkiv/eastern regions: [05:10–08:41]
• Air defense realities in Kharkiv: [08:41–14:23]
• Ukrainian defense industry innovations: [14:23–19:55]
• Supply chains, Danish procurement, and industrial lessons: [19:55–22:24]
• Occupied territories: repression, resistance, demographics: [22:24–29:53]
• Migration, property, and settler colonialism: [29:53–32:26]
• Zelenskyy’s anti-corruption law and domestic protest: [32:26–37:48]
• Negotiations and Western perceptions: [37:48–44:01]

Conclusion

Jade McGlynn’s reporting paints a vivid portrait of Ukrainian endurance and the staggering toll of Russia’s ongoing invasion—on military, political, and human levels. While defense innovations and societal resilience are sources of pride, the situation remains dire, particularly in the occupied zones. Political blunders test, but do not break, Ukraine’s sense of unity and drive for self-determination. Geopolitics may shift, but the psychological and material stakes for Ukraine—and Europe—are immediate and profound.