Podcast Summary: Russian Roulette

Episode: Max and Michael Kimmage Catch Up on All Things Russia and Ukraine
Date: July 28, 2025
Host: Max Bergman (CSIS)
Guest: Michael Kimmage (Professor of History, Catholic University of America)

Overview

In this timely and wide-ranging conversation, host Max Bergman and returning guest Michael Kimmage offer a "level set" on the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war and its broader political, economic, and geopolitical dynamics. They break down the state of play six months into President Trump's second term, discuss strains facing both Russia and the West, analyze transatlantic coordination, and explore the hard realities confronting Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the United States. The conversation is candid, analytic, and rooted in policy experience, providing listeners with both big-picture context and granular insights.

Table of Contents

1. State of the Russia-Ukraine War (01:19-06:42)
2. Strains in the Russian Political Economy (04:11-10:04)
3. Putin’s Balancing Act & Geopolitical Setbacks (06:42-10:04)
4. Morale Shifts and Impact of Western Policy (10:04-15:24)
5. Trump Policy and the (Nonexistent) Peace Process (15:24-19:36)
6. Transatlantic Coordination and European Adaptation (19:36-24:06)
7. Skepticism About Tariffs and Sanctions (24:06-27:32)
8. Policy Advice for Europe, Ukraine & Russia (Red Team/Blue Team) (27:32-37:22)
9. Russian Strategies and Hopes for the War (37:22-41:17)
10. Escalation Dynamics and Targeting Civilians (41:17-42:53)
11. Corruption, Governance & EU Conditionality in Ukraine (42:53-48:32)
12. Concluding Thoughts

State of the Russia-Ukraine War (01:19-06:42)

• Stalemate and Mutual Strain:
  Michael Kimmage observes, "It’s an odd moment perhaps in the conflict ... strains and stresses on both sides ... really register more in the domain ... of political economy than of raw battlefield empirical data." (01:47)

• Russia’s “Sugar High” Fades:
  Marginal Russian battlefield gains haven't changed the war fundamentally, but internal costs and casualties (potentially up to a million) are staggering.

• Western Frustration:
  Political and financial fatigue is showing in the US and Europe, with some tensions even within Ukraine. Transatlantic cooperation, while not at its nadir, has undoubtedly worsened since last year.

“Neither is willing to give up by any means, and yet the burden is visibly growing heavier.”
—Michael Kimmage (03:45)

Strains in the Russian Political Economy (04:11-10:04)

• End of Economic “Sugar High”:
  Russia’s initial economic surge has given way to a “hangover” (Max), marked by resource depletion and increasing corruption tension.

• Signs of Strain:
  Suicides and arrests among Russian elites may reflect these economic pressures, though not yet a harbinger of elite revolt.

• Putin’s Immunity to Dissent:
  Despite these signs, Putin’s grip on power is strong and real political infighting remains unlikely.

“Putin is probably more immune to dissent than perhaps it seemed like he was in the beginning of the war.”
—Max Bergman (05:54)

Putin’s Balancing Act & Geopolitical Setbacks (06:42-10:04)

• Summary of Kimmage & Lippman’s Foreign Affairs Piece:
  1. Putin’s earlier domestic “political perfection”: A loyal society in exchange for stability.
  2. The end of this equilibrium as victory recedes: To win, Putin would need mass mobilization, risking social stability.
  3. Russia’s geopolitical setbacks in the Caucasus, Middle East, and overall diminishing global stature.

“Putin gets to run the show ... and he has to deliver a degree of ... stability and predictability ... This phase is coming to an end ... because Putin is very, very far from winning this war.”
—Michael Kimmage (07:13)

Morale Shifts and Impact of Western Policy (10:04-15:24)

• Morale Fluctuations:
  Morale in Russia rose during periods when Western aid for Ukraine faltered and Trump won the US election, but recent signals of continued Western support are shifting sentiment.

• Limits of Russian Propaganda:
  Kimmage contrasts the rosy view pushed by Russian media with the actual war toll: “A million deaths and casualties ... For what on the Russian side? ... delivers nothing but ... death and cost and isolation.” (13:42)

“If you’re in Russia, and that’s what you want to hear, you can buy into that ... On the other hand, if you’re willing to take just a somewhat more candid look ... it just looks terrible.”
—Michael Kimmage (12:58)

• Potential for Morale Collapse:
  There is a real risk that mounting losses and hardship could sap frontline morale—potentially leading to unpredictable consequences.

Trump Policy and the (Nonexistent) Peace Process (15:24-19:36)

• Trump Administration’s Approach:
  "Merry-go-round" of shifting moods: “If it’s one flavor now, it’s going to be something else in a couple of weeks.” (16:24)

• No Real Investment in Diplomacy:
  The “magical thinking” period about a diplomatic solution has ended; Trump never seriously invested in peace talks or exerted the leverage the US possesses.

• Trump’s Tension with Ukraine Policy Demands:
  “What this war demands of any American president is ... the sort of thing that Trump himself is just incapable of delivering ... patience, coordination, discipline.” (18:43)

• Europe Filling Aid Gaps:
  The US is shifting to selling weapons to Europe for Ukraine, rather than direct military support.

“If you’re Ukraine, you know, it’s not great. It’s a fine outcome.”
—Max Bergman (19:23)

Transatlantic Coordination and European Adaptation (19:36-24:06)

• Europe’s Increasing Burden:
  As US help recedes, Europe must “fill the void,” ramping up weapons production and funding, and buying US systems like Patriot missiles.

• Strategic Shifts:
  Europe is both expanding defense spending and integrating Ukraine aid into its NATO commitments, making military support more politically sustainable in Europe.

Skepticism About Tariffs and Sanctions (24:06-27:32)

• Trump’s Tariff Threats:
  Max expresses deep skepticism about the Trump administration’s willingness to effectively weaponize tariffs or secondary sanctions against Russian energy sales to countries like China and India—moves that would likely raise global oil prices and hurt the US consumer.

• Trump’s Unpredictability:
  Kimmage adds that Trump’s deadlines often signal a lack of follow-through: “When Trump sets an ultimatum ... that's almost a clue that he's not going to follow through.” (24:12)

• Counterarguments (Kimmage's Devil’s Advocate):

  • Trump sometimes accepts inflationary risks (tariffs, past actions).
  • Trump could act on ego, especially after Putin/Russian media mocking.
  • Trump has shown a willingness to take surprise risks (e.g., Syria, Iran).

Policy Advice for Europe, Ukraine & Russia (Red Team/Blue Team) (27:32-37:22)

For Europe & Ukraine

• “Keep on Keeping On”:
  The only viable strategy is to persist; defeat is too costly.

• Focus Areas for Europe:

  1. Practical Support: Ensure Ukraine has necessary air defenses, ammunition, and essentials. “Europe just lags on some of the simple aspects of the war ... Ukrainian soldiers ... still need a lot of practical stuff.” —Kimmage (29:51)
  2. Military Innovation: Invest in and integrate Ukraine’s defense industrial creativity with Europe’s tech capacity, leveraging venture capital, R&D, and military cooperation.

“The practicalities on the one hand and innovation on the other ... it's the kind of stuff that you need to make progress.”
—Michael Kimmage (33:00)

• Strategic Messaging to Russia:
  Max argues for a Western/European message to the Russian public about a future “path back” to Europe after Putin, to undercut Kremlin morale and offer hope.

For the Kremlin (Red Team)

• No Real Path to Victory:
  Putin is locked in by the need to avoid appearing a loser; his strategy is increasingly desperate and delusional, hoping for Western/Ukrainian collapse.

“Russia is, to a degree, where Germany was in 1944, 1945. It’s sort of the Hail Mary approach to strategy ... you just throw things at the war and hope against hope that Zelenskyy is going to fall ... or some huge element will emerge in the European Union or the US.”
—Michael Kimmage (38:42)

• Civilian Bombardment:
  Russian missile/drone attacks on Ukrainian civillian centers are “the inverse of strategic thinking,” alienating Ukrainians further and making any political settlement ever less likely.

Russian Strategies and Hopes for the War (37:22-41:17)

• Putin’s Inflexibility:
  The war’s continuation is fundamentally about personal survival and ego for Putin; actual state interests are subordinate.

• Desperation: Putin’s strategy now relies on unpredictable shocks in the West or Ukraine—an increasingly vain hope.

  “A lot of the strategic questions that Russia could have ... will never get discussed ... because that’s how the system functions.” (37:42)

Escalation Dynamics and Targeting Civilians (41:17-42:53)

• Ukrainian Retaliation:
  As Russia escalates attacks on Ukrainian civilians, Ukraine is developing the capability to retaliate with long-range drones, potentially striking Russian urban centers—escalating the war and potentially bursting the insulation of Russia’s elite classes.

• Historical Parallels:
  Indiscriminate bombing rarely breaks national resolve (cf. London in WWII), suggesting Russia’s current approach is not just morally bankrupt but strategically ineffective.

Corruption, Governance & EU Conditionality in Ukraine (42:53-48:32)

• Zelenskyy’s Executive Overreach:
  Recent crackdowns and arrests of anti-corruption officials in Kyiv signal worrying trends of centralization of power—though Ukraine remains fundamentally pluralistic and civil society is holding.

“He's trying to amass a greater degree of executive power ... But I don't think that Zelenskyy is a classic authoritarian personality ... Ukraine is very pluralistic and I think has remained so during the war.”
—Michael Kimmage (44:10)

• Role of EU in Safeguarding Reform:
  The European Union’s rigorous accession process will hold Ukraine to high standards, with membership hopes creating real external leverage.

  “If Ukraine does move in [an] authoritarian direction ... then the pathway towards European Union membership ... is not going to advance. And this is something where the EU doesn't compromise.”
  —Max Bergman (48:32)

• Civilian Hardship:
  The real threat to Ukrainian stability isn’t political infighting, but the compounded hardships of war—especially energy shortages through the winter.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “A million deaths and casualties by the end of this year ... That’s an astonishing number.”
  —Michael Kimmage (02:35)

• “You can sort of see the, of the next, is that whichever side is better able to hold that burden ... is going to start to emerge the front runner in the war.”
  —Michael Kimmage (03:36)

• “The war puts demands on the American president that this American president can't deliver.”
  —Michael Kimmage (18:50)

• “Russia is chronically incapable of ... respecting your adversary ... It was incapable of doing this at the beginning of the war.”
  —Michael Kimmage (43:40)

Conclusion

While both sides are battered and Western unity has frayed, the war’s fundamentals have not shifted. Russia faces growing internal and external strains but is locked in by Putin’s ego and system. Europe, spurred by necessity but still rife with gaps, is rising to the challenge of back-filling US disengagement. Ukraine, though hampered by internal challenges, remains resilient, supported by both civil society and the promise (and conditions) of European integration. The prospect for a negotiated peace remains distant, and the conflict will likely hinge on which side best manages long-term burdens—political, economic, and social—both at the front and at home.

Additional Resources

• CSIS: Russian Roulette Podcast
• Michael Kimmage & Maria Lipman, "The Limits of Putin’s Balancing Act" — Foreign Affairs

This summary was prepared to provide a comprehensive, timestamped overview of the episode’s substantive content for those unable to listen in full.