Podcast Summary: Russian Roulette
Episode: Russia-Ukraine Negotiations: Outlining a U.S. Strategy with Tom Wright
Date: April 4, 2025
Host(s): Max Bergmann (CSIS), Maria Snegovaya (CSIS)
Guest: Tom Wright (Brookings Institution; former Senior Director, NSC/Biden Administration)
Episode Overview
This episode focuses on the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, dissecting U.S. strategic options and approaches under recent and current presidential administrations. The discussion draws on Tom Wright’s recent Foreign Affairs article, addressing U.S. leverage, the Biden versus Trump administration doctrines, the pitfalls and prospects of “carrots” versus “sticks” strategies, and the implications for European and transatlantic security. The conversation also delves into the realities and challenges of providing security guarantees to Ukraine and the evolving geopolitical architecture.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The 2025 Opening for Negotiations
- Wright outlines the timing:
- “We always thought that 2025 would be a year of negotiations… Last year was particularly unsuited, there was no supplemental for aid to Ukraine, and Russia waited to see the U.S. election outcome.”
(Tom Wright, 02:30)
- “We always thought that 2025 would be a year of negotiations… Last year was particularly unsuited, there was no supplemental for aid to Ukraine, and Russia waited to see the U.S. election outcome.”
- The potential for resolution is higher this year, but Russia’s war aims remain broad and “maximalist.” The real negotiation challenge is convincing Putin to accept a sovereign and self-defended Ukraine, not merely haggling over territory.
2. U.S. Leverage and Pressure Points
- Ukraine’s leverage hinges on continued U.S. support:
- “Russia’s taking over 1,500 casualties a day… small gains come at huge cost. Putin faces a stark choice if he wants to sustain the war: large-scale mobilization, which he’d rather avoid.”
(Tom Wright, 02:30–05:29)
- “Russia’s taking over 1,500 casualties a day… small gains come at huge cost. Putin faces a stark choice if he wants to sustain the war: large-scale mobilization, which he’d rather avoid.”
- Three pressure vectors:
- Russian manpower and losses
- Western financial pressure and sanctions
- U.S./allied support for Ukraine’s strike capability
3. “Sticks” vs “Carrots”: Biden vs Trump (vs Harris)
- Biden/Harris approach:
- Focuses on “sticks"—military aid, sanctions, and pressure on Russia to force serious negotiation.
- Trump approach:
- Prefers “carrots”—offering Russia prospects of improved relations, with sticks (cuts to aid/intelligence) reserved for Ukraine if it resists dealmaking.
- “The Trump administration doesn't seem focused on going to Congress... It's holding out carrots for Russia and sticks for Ukraine.”
(Max Bergmann, 06:35)
- “The Trump administration doesn't seem focused on going to Congress... It's holding out carrots for Russia and sticks for Ukraine.”
- Prefers “carrots”—offering Russia prospects of improved relations, with sticks (cuts to aid/intelligence) reserved for Ukraine if it resists dealmaking.
- Wright’s view:
- “I think it’s a mistake, obviously. I don’t think the carrots are going to be enough. Russia will pocket the concessions. We’ve seen no sign they’re willing to moderate objectives.”
(Tom Wright, 07:57)
- “I think it’s a mistake, obviously. I don’t think the carrots are going to be enough. Russia will pocket the concessions. We’ve seen no sign they’re willing to moderate objectives.”
4. Russian Objectives & Obstacles
- Misreading Russian war aims:
- The Trump team may underestimate Russia’s enduring goal to subjugate Ukraine, not just seize territory.
- “Their war objectives were much bigger than that.”
(Tom Wright, 07:57)
- “Their war objectives were much bigger than that.”
- The Trump team may underestimate Russia’s enduring goal to subjugate Ukraine, not just seize territory.
- Negotiation must confront Russia’s intent to force Ukraine into a neutered, defenseless state.
5. The Question of Sequencing & Ceasefire
- Current phase:
- Focus on temporary initiatives like Black Sea maritime agreements and ceasefires.
- “Cessation of hostilities is good... but what does that allow Ukraine and the U.S. to do next?”
(Maria Snegovaya, 12:01)
- “Cessation of hostilities is good... but what does that allow Ukraine and the U.S. to do next?”
- Focus on temporary initiatives like Black Sea maritime agreements and ceasefires.
- Wright advocates a minimalist ceasefire:
- “The violence stops. But nothing else changes—no sanctions lifted, no restrictions on U.S. aid, no limits on Ukrainian or Russian actions beyond the shooting stopping.”
(Tom Wright, 12:01–14:41)
- “The violence stops. But nothing else changes—no sanctions lifted, no restrictions on U.S. aid, no limits on Ukrainian or Russian actions beyond the shooting stopping.”
- Warns that Russia could exploit a lull to regroup, but even temporary ceasefires can reset negotiation dynamics and clarify who is really an obstacle to peace.
6. Security Guarantees and NATO Pathways
- Ukrainian position:
- Strong insistence on U.S./NATO Article 5 guarantees.
- U.S. reality:
- “It was impossible to do right away… this war will only end when Russia chooses to stop it. If we invite Ukraine to NATO immediately, Article 5 is triggered—we’re at war with Russia.”
(Tom Wright, 15:23–20:51) - Alternatives:
- “Israel model” (robust arms, external support, but not NATO)
- Limiting NATO territorial guarantees (e.g., “West Germany/Not occupied territories”)
- “It was impossible to do right away… this war will only end when Russia chooses to stop it. If we invite Ukraine to NATO immediately, Article 5 is triggered—we’re at war with Russia.”
- “For Ukrainians, Russia's war means they effectively have a say in Ukraine's security.”
(Tom Wright, 20:51)
7. Impact on European & Transatlantic Security
- Bad deals risk wider European instability:
- “A bad deal could jeopardize broader European stability… But some in the Trump administration seem unbothered, seeing NATO’s fate as Europe’s responsibility.”
(Tom Wright, 21:47)
- “A bad deal could jeopardize broader European stability… But some in the Trump administration seem unbothered, seeing NATO’s fate as Europe’s responsibility.”
- Concern over Trump’s perception of “Europe”:
- “To the extent they could sell out Germany without selling out Poland, that would probably seem quite attractive. But since Poland’s in the middle… it’s linked.”
(Tom Wright, 21:47) - Frontline states (Poland, Baltics) have made big sacrifices and spend heavily; U.S. decisions should focus on their interests, not conflate all Europe.
- “To the extent they could sell out Germany without selling out Poland, that would probably seem quite attractive. But since Poland’s in the middle… it’s linked.”
8. Can Ukraine Survive Without U.S. Support?
- If the U.S. pulls back:
- “If you want the war to end quickly, you have to convince Putin it can go on a long time… If you say, ‘I want it to end quickly, so I’m going to stop supporting Ukraine soon,’ the war will go on a very long time.”
(Tom Wright, 26:33)
- “If you want the war to end quickly, you have to convince Putin it can go on a long time… If you say, ‘I want it to end quickly, so I’m going to stop supporting Ukraine soon,’ the war will go on a very long time.”
- Ukraine has indigenous capacities (drones, strike weapons), and Europe could help financially—but only the U.S. can provide vital air defenses and munitions at the necessary scale and speed.
- “On certain things—air defense, GMLRS, just no replacement in Europe alone.”
(Tom Wright, 31:17)
- “On certain things—air defense, GMLRS, just no replacement in Europe alone.”
- “Ukraine will survive, but at higher cost and more lives lost; Russia may gain marginally, but not win outright (at least not in 2025).”
(Tom Wright, 31:17)
9. Reflections on Biden’s European Legacy
- Achievements:
- Major increases in European defense spending and NATO membership expansion (Finland, Sweden),
- “Europe, despite what President Trump says, spent more on Ukraine than the United States did.”
(Tom Wright, 34:55)
- Concerns:
- Weakening transatlantic unity risks undermining efforts to check Russia and China, especially in advanced technology sectors.
- “If the EU began to be less cooperative…it would have real impact [on U.S. tech controls for China]”
(Tom Wright, 34:55–37:50)
- “If the EU began to be less cooperative…it would have real impact [on U.S. tech controls for China]”
- Weakening transatlantic unity risks undermining efforts to check Russia and China, especially in advanced technology sectors.
10. Russia–China Alignment: Irreversible?
- Wright:
- “There is no real prospect of a Russia–China split, certainly under Putin. Anyone who thinks that is completely delusional.”
(Tom Wright, 38:01) - Lifting sanctions on Russia could actually help deepen Russia–China financial ties, undercutting U.S. interests.
- “There is no real prospect of a Russia–China split, certainly under Putin. Anyone who thinks that is completely delusional.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On the futility of “carrots” for Russia:
- “Hoping for fundamental reset or partnership with Russia strikes me as delusional. We’ve had Putin as leader now since 2000… These things aren’t going to change.”
(Tom Wright, 07:57)
- “Hoping for fundamental reset or partnership with Russia strikes me as delusional. We’ve had Putin as leader now since 2000… These things aren’t going to change.”
-
On shifting Ukrainian negotiation postures:
- “Ukraine’s saying—Okay, we agree [with Trump], just end up with no conditions. And it’s the Russians who are insisting: I can only end it if you do A, B, C, D.”
(Tom Wright, 10:59)
- “Ukraine’s saying—Okay, we agree [with Trump], just end up with no conditions. And it’s the Russians who are insisting: I can only end it if you do A, B, C, D.”
-
On security guarantees and NATO membership:
- “A Ukraine that is in NATO is potentially more restrained because it’s part of Western defense… You could have Ukraine in NATO but no NATO in Ukraine.”
(Tom Wright, 18:10)
- “A Ukraine that is in NATO is potentially more restrained because it’s part of Western defense… You could have Ukraine in NATO but no NATO in Ukraine.”
-
On European frontline states:
- “These countries, they’re not just spending 2%, they’re spending 4–5% of GDP. They’ve been with the United States constantly.”
(Tom Wright, 23:27)
- “These countries, they’re not just spending 2%, they’re spending 4–5% of GDP. They’ve been with the United States constantly.”
-
On sustainability of support:
- “It is sustainable from a U.S. national interest point of view—financially and militarily—to do that [support Ukraine]. That is not unsustainable.”
(Tom Wright, 30:20)
- “It is sustainable from a U.S. national interest point of view—financially and militarily—to do that [support Ukraine]. That is not unsustainable.”
-
On splitting adversaries:
- “Anyone who thinks they can split Russia and China [is] completely delusional… If you try to thaw between Russia and the US, you could really accelerate Russia–China cooperation.”
(Tom Wright, 38:01)
- “Anyone who thinks they can split Russia and China [is] completely delusional… If you try to thaw between Russia and the US, you could really accelerate Russia–China cooperation.”
Key Timestamps
- 02:30 – Wright’s assessment of negotiation prospects; Russia’s war aims
- 05:29 – Ukraine’s leverage: casualties, sanctions, arms
- 06:35 – “Sticks versus carrots”: Biden vs Trump strategy
- 07:57 – Flaws in a carrots-only approach; Russian objectives
- 10:59 – Ukraine’s ceasefire posture and negotiating pivots
- 12:01 – Sequencing of ceasefire, what comes next
- 15:23 – Feasibility and models of Ukraine security guarantees; NATO membership dilemma
- 20:51 – U.S. rationale for aiding Ukraine: European stability and broader interests
- 21:47 – Concerns over U.S. attitude toward European allies
- 26:33 – Consequences of U.S. withdrawal and Ukrainian resilience
- 31:17 – Limits of European military assistance in the absence of U.S. support
- 34:55 – Reflections on Biden administration’s achievements and challenges in Europe
- 38:01 – Russia–China relationship and dangers of sanctions relief
Final Thoughts
This episode presents a nuanced, insider perspective on U.S. policy choices and dilemmas as Ukraine-Russia negotiations unfold in 2025. Tom Wright stresses that sustained pressure—and leverage—remains the only realistic path to a stable, sovereign Ukraine, and warns against illusions of easy deals with Moscow or of Washington being able to “split” Russia from China. The discussion underscores that European security and the future of NATO hang in the balance, with American leadership and credibility on the line.