Podcast Summary: Russian Roulette Episode: Sergey Radchenko on Ukraine Peace Negotiations Date: December 18, 2025 Host(s): Max Bergman, Maria Snegovaya (CSIS) Guest: Sergey Radchenko (Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)
Overview
In this episode, Max Bergman and Maria Snegovaya host professor and historian Sergey Radchenko to analyze the latest developments in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The discussion centers on the motivations and strategies of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, the prospects for a stable peace agreement, shifting U.S. policy under the Trump administration, and the practical obstacles that continue to impede resolution.
Main Discussion Points & Insights
1. U.S. Strategy and "Magical Thinking" (00:33–07:43)
-
Sergey Radchenko discusses his recent Foreign Affairs article, "America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine," where he critiques pressures on Ukraine to make a "bad deal" that would ultimately serve neither Ukrainian nor American interests.
-
Quote:
"This is not a war that the United States should be in a hurry to finish. By finishing it, we mean surrendering Ukraine to Russia because this would strengthen an American adversary in Europe..."
(Sergey Radchenko, 03:42) -
He argues current U.S. policy under Trump lacks regional expertise and is “empowering Russia,” potentially allowing Putin to turn strategic defeat into victory.
2. National Security Strategy: Reassessing the Russian Threat (07:43–14:30)
- Discussion on the newly released National Security Strategy and its limited characterization of Russia as a threat.
- Radchenko argues both for and against the wisdom of deprioritizing Russia. While some see Russia as a regional power in decline, others emphasize that allowing Russia to dominate Ukraine could destabilize Europe in the long run.
- Quote:
"Is Russia actually not a national security threat to the United States? ... I think you could probably defend that idea."
(Sergey Radchenko, 09:11)
3. Are the Russians Negotiating in Good Faith? (07:43–14:30)
- Radchenko is skeptical about Russian intentions. While Putin would accept negotiations if they delivered his objectives (political control over Ukraine), he questions how much Russia is really willing to compromise.
- Quote:
"Putin would not mind a negotiated outcome if it met his objectives in Ukraine... The question is how much is he willing to compromise those objectives..."
(Sergey Radchenko, 13:22)
4. Key Sticking Points in Negotiations — Then and Now (14:30–23:33)
-
Radchenko details the overlap and differences between historic (Istanbul, 2022) and current proposals (the 28-point plan):
- Permanent Neutral Status for Ukraine: A core Russian demand, viewed as realistic since NATO membership is unlikely anyway.
- Security Guarantees: Remain unresolved. U.S. and Europe are not willing to provide Article 5-style guarantees; Russia rejects any NATO/EU forces in Ukraine.
- Military Limitations: Earlier Russian demands for drastic reduction of Ukraine’s army have eased; the latest proposals limit Ukraine to a large but unsustainable force.
- Language and Church Laws: Longstanding symbolic demands are persistent.
- Territorial Questions: More difficult now, given additional Russian annexations and territorial demands on Donetsk.
- Zelenskyy's Future: Putin wants Zelenskyy gone, now apparently aligned with U.S. pressure for elections.
-
Quote:
"Zelenskyy's political future. Putin clearly wants Zelenskyy out of office... so getting rid of Zelenskyy is a key part of any agreement for Putin, which we can see the Americans have already internalized..."
(Sergey Radchenko, 21:53)
5. The Farce of "Coalitions of the Willing" and Security Guarantees (23:33–26:21)
- European talk of “coalitions of the willing” (e.g., UK/French troops in Ukraine) is dismissed as unrealistic and performative.
- Security guarantees demanded by Ukraine are more about Ukrainian public opinion and political optics than actual expectations.
- Quote:
"The whole coalition of the willing is a farce. And it was a farce from the start..."
(Sergey Radchenko, 25:00) "Zelensky is mindful of the domestic opinion first and foremost... trying to do it for PR more than anything else..."
(Sergey Radchenko, 26:00)
6. Negotiation Stalemate: Who Is Willing to Truly Compromise? (26:21–34:00)
- Russia has proven willing to make some concessions, but refuses to let Ukraine be a truly sovereign, anti-Russian state.
- Core assumption: Putin's obsession with controlling Ukraine (to make it a "Belarus 2.0") remains the primary obstacle.
- The costs, stakes, and suffering on the ground in Ukraine remain high, making Ukrainian willingness to fight rather than capitulate understandable.
- Quote:
"Putin is simply after three and a half... years of war, is he willing to drop that idea of actual political control of Ukraine? ... I would say no."
(Sergey Radchenko, 29:36)
7. Is Continued Support for Ukraine "Warmongering"? (31:21–34:00)
- Radchenko argues supporting Ukraine is not warmongering; it aligns with U.S. and European strategic interests.
- Decisions about peace or ongoing war should be made by Ukrainians, not outsiders sitting in Washington.
8. Ukraine and the European Union: A False Compromise? (34:00–38:08)
- The Russians claim they are open to Ukrainian EU membership, while still adamantly opposing NATO.
- Max Bergman points out EU membership carries implicit security guarantees (Article 42.7), possibly more binding than NATO's Article 5.
- Russia’s willingness may be tactical, assuming Ukraine will never actually join due to EU internal politics (e.g., Hungary, Poland).
- Quote:
"Fundamentally, I think Russia does not mean anything good for Europe... They want to weaken the European Union..."
(Sergey Radchenko, 36:31)
9. Outlook: What Comes Next? Attrition, Stalemate, or Ceasefire? (38:08–44:08)
- War remains a stalemate; both sides weakened, neither close to victory.
- Peace negotiations likely to remain deadlocked unless either side’s core positions shift.
- U.S. leverage is diminishing, as Europe picks up the financial tab, but the U.S. still holds important cards (e.g., intelligence sharing).
- The ongoing pressure from all sides (Russia, U.S., internal problems) may force changes — for better or worse — in the coming year.
- Quote:
"How can any country survive this? Dual pressure, even triple pressure from Russia, military pressure, internal difficulties, and also pressure from the Trump administration. That's going to be very, very difficult."
(Sergey Radchenko, 42:21)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On US strategy:
"They're allowing Putin to claim to clutch victory from the jaws of defeat, jaws of strategic defeat..."
(Sergey Radchenko, 03:15) - On EU security guarantees:
"The EU actually has a more ironclad security guarantee than Article 5 in NATO..."
(Max Bergman, 34:15) - On enduring Ukrainian resilience:
"The Ukrainians are not eager to capitulate. So can people accuse me of being a warmonger...? Yeah, I can see how some people will say that. But I've just explained the logic here."
(Sergey Radchenko, 33:14)
Key Segment Timestamps
- 00:33 – Introduction and episode overview
- 02:57 – Radchenko outlines "magical thinking" argument
- 07:43 – Discussion of U.S. national security strategy and Russia’s status as a threat
- 14:30 – Comparing current and past negotiation demands
- 23:33 – Security guarantees and European "coalitions of the willing"
- 26:42 – How negotiation obstacles have or haven’t changed since Istanbul
- 32:03 – Is supporting continued war “warmongering”?
- 34:00 – Russia’s stance on Ukrainian EU membership
- 38:08 – The near future: attrition, possible outcomes, U.S. and European roles
Conclusion
The episode paints a sobering, nuanced picture of peace prospects in Ukraine. Both Radchenko and the hosts conclude that near-term peace seems unlikely, largely due to irreconcilable objectives on all sides and a shifting, sometimes incoherent Western response. The Ukrainians are left alone to make existential decisions under immense pressure, as U.S. and European influence and commitment are in flux.
Radchenko's analysis is sharp, critical, and rooted in both history and present dynamics — emphasizing the complexity and deep uncertainty that define peace negotiations in Ukraine as 2025 draws to a close.