Russian Roulette Podcast: The 2025 Moldovan Parliamentary Elections

CSIS, October 21, 2025
Host: Max Bergmann (A) & Maria Snegovaya (B)
Guests:

• Leah Keefe (D), Senior Associate Non-Resident Fellow, CSIS; Cybersecurity Expert; Former Peace Corps Volunteer in Moldova
• Vlad Lupin (C), Adjunct Professor, NYU; Former Moldovan MP, Ambassador to UN, & Foreign Policy Advisor

Episode Overview

This episode of Russian Roulette examines the pivotal 2025 Moldovan parliamentary elections, their significance for Moldova's geopolitical direction, the scope and method of Russian interference, the country's path towards European Union membership, and the complex regional dynamics involving Transnistria and the war in Ukraine. Guests Leah Keefe and Vlad Lupin draw on deep policy, security, and on-the-ground experience to break down what this election means for Moldova’s future, how reform and resilience are being tested, and what's next for this small but geostrategically crucial state.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background: Moldova’s Political System & the Stakes of 2025

[02:43-11:46]

• Moldova is a semi-parliamentary republic:
  The president chairs the National Security Council, shapes foreign policy, but does not head the government directly. Parliamentary elections are paramount, as they determine who runs the executive branch.
• PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity) victory:
  PAS, led by President Maia Sandu, won a clear majority—a significant step toward European integration amid concerns of Russian interference.
• Fluctuating party landscape:
  New parties frequently emerge and disappear, reflecting volatility and public dissatisfaction. PAS stands out for its continuity and clear pro-EU, anti-corruption stance.
• Shift to a Europe-vs-Russia narrative:
  Recent elections were framed as a stark choice: “Europe or Russia.” “During these elections, PAS went into, it’s either Europe or not, or Russia. And we lose and we become kind of a war party.” – Vlad Lupin [11:32]
• Russia's evolving interference:
  Classic information operations gave way to direct vote buying and even alleged coup attempts, representing "a new form of interference." [09:35]
• Trigger for EU momentum:
  Russia’s war against Ukraine made EU membership more urgent for both Ukraine and Moldova. “Russia created itself a scenario which it did not want.” – Vlad Lupin [12:57]

2. Nature and Extent of Russian Interference

[13:33-18:51]

• Massive spending on influence:
  Russia allegedly spent $400 million on the 2025 elections, vastly outpacing all pro-EU actors combined (~$200,000).
• Tools and tactics:
  • Direct vote buying and crypto-based schemes (sanctioned by US authorities)
  • Paid protests: Moldovan oligarchs offered citizens $3,000/month to protest—a fifth of the average annual income.
  • Training of Moldovans and Romanians in Serbia to incite riots, use drones, and fight law enforcement
  • Arrests: Moldovan authorities carried out pre-election raids, arresting 74 individuals linked to planned attacks.
• Law enforcement and international cooperation:
  These developments, plus strong coordination with Western allies, contributed to the absence of post-election unrest.
• Evolving oligarch alignment:
  Oligarchs' activities, previously self-driven, are now “much more uniformly aligned and funded by Moscow, which is a key, key shift.” — Leah Keefe [15:14]
• No riots or significant cyberattacks reported post-election; considered a success by officials.

3. Aftermath and Ongoing Russian Threats

[18:51-22:25]

• Outlook from Western perspective:
  While there is relief over the election’s peaceful outcome, “Moscow is going to continue to be displeased.” – Leah Keefe [19:37]
  • Expect continued attempts at destabilization, including cyber-attacks and false-flag operations, particularly in Transnistria.
• Domestic challenges:
  • The economy remains a point of criticism against PAS.
  • New prime minister-designate (Alexandro Monteano) focuses on economic reform.
  • Public support for the EU path is high, but lagging economic progress is a vulnerability.

4. Transnistria: Leverage and Opportunity

[22:25-28:24]

• Energy leverage erodes:
  Moldova and Ukraine have cut off gas flows from Russia to Transnistria, reducing Moscow’s influence.
• Transnistria’s isolation:
  Its economy now orients more toward Europe than Russia, with over 60% of exports going to the EU.
• Opportunity for reintegration:
  “This is a great moment to actually sit down with the Transnistrians and basically tell them it’s over.” – Vlad Lupin [26:43]
• Caveats:
  Resolving the “frozen conflict” will be complex; carrots and sticks both required.

5. Democratic Resilience vs. Wartime Constraints

[28:24-31:29]

• Criticisms from Russian media:
  Allegations of government overreach (party exclusions, muzzling media, diaspora voting challenges) surface.
• Limits of liberalism under threat:
  “Moldova is a success story here. I think that they held free and fair elections without... really significant suppression of speech.” – Leah Keefe [29:36]
• Broader lessons:
  Moldova serves as a “testing ground for the tactics and methods that the Kremlin is going to use in other elections elsewhere.” [30:25]
• Key takeaway:
  Societies that deliver on basic prosperity and rule of law can repel even well-funded foreign interference.

6. US and Western Response

[31:29-34:31]

• Social media battleground:
  Russian-funded narratives swamped online space; effective pro-EU, Romanian-language engagement was crucial.
• Western support:
  US provided $130 million for a new electric grid connection between Moldova and Romania, bolstering energy security ahead of the elections.
• Energy security as political currency:
  “When voters go to vote in Moldova, part of what they are voting on is ensuring that they will hopefully have access to energy, and especially in the winter, both in terms of the supply and in terms of the cost.” – Leah Keefe [33:55]

7. Moldova’s EU Path: Hopes and Hurdles

[34:31-40:49]

• Strict criteria, predictable challenges:
  Moldova must satisfy the Copenhagen criteria: rule of law, anti-corruption, democracy, and market-ready economy.
• Ease (and challenge) of law adoption:
  Legislation is comparatively easy (thanks to Romanian support), but “the real challenge is going to be... implementation.” – Vlad Lupin [37:26]
• Talent and capacity limits:
  Civil service/expertise gaps are a bottleneck; “There is no way this can be done without external support.” [39:42]
• EU accession tied to Ukraine, but distinct:
  Moldova and Ukraine track together, but accession decisions will be handled separately.

8. Regional Security, Ukraine’s War, and Future Scenarios

[40:49-48:32]

• Security trajectory tied to Ukraine’s fate:
  Ceasefire or settlement in Ukraine will affect Transnistria’s status—no scenario where Russia retains troops and arms in Transnistria if Ukraine achieves peace.
• Transnistria thawing:
  Since the war, dependence on Russia dwindling, and collaboration with EU and Moldova increasing.
  • “For the first time in 30 years, there’s really a lot of light in terms of that happening.” – Leah Keefe [44:20]
• EU negotiations will judge Moldova’s performance on its own merits, not tied to Ukraine's progress or delays. [47:30]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the crucial stakes of 2025:
  “These elections were very clearly about whether we are going to become Europe or not.” – Vlad Lupin [12:06]
• On Russian interference:
  “Russia... spent approximately $400 million during this year’s elections.” – Leah Keefe [15:21] “A Moldovan oligarch... was offering $3,000 a month to Moldovans to engage in protests ahead of the election.” – Leah Keefe [16:43]
• On democratic success amid threats:
  “Moldova is a success story here... They held free and fair elections... and without really significant suppression of speech.” – Leah Keefe [29:36]
• On the EU path:
  “Transferring the laws... is probably the easiest part. Moldovans are often praised for speedy adoption of laws... The real challenge is going to be implementation.” – Vlad Lupin [37:16]
• On Transnistria’s changing fate:
  “I think this is a moment where you would be able to eliminate the Transnistrian region as a danger for both Moldova and Ukraine.” – Vlad Lupin [26:47]
• On societal resilience:
  “When these elements [security, rule of law, prosperity] are present, that free societies can repel even really, really well funded foreign malign influence.” – Leah Keefe [31:05]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Time | |-----------------------------------------------|-----------| | Background on Moldova’s politics | 02:43-11:46| | Was the outcome a shock? | 11:46-13:33| | Russian interference in 2025 | 13:33-18:51| | Risks for escalation post-election | 18:51-22:25| | Transnistria’s energy lever and new PM | 22:25-28:24| | Debates on democracy in wartime | 28:24-31:29| | Social media, US and western role | 31:29-34:31| | The Moldova-EU process; implementation focus | 34:31-40:49| | The impact of Ukraine war on Moldova | 40:49-48:32| | Final reflections on reforms and regional path| 48:32-50:21|

Conclusion: Moldova’s Crucial Crossroads

This episode delivers a comprehensive analysis of how Moldova’s 2025 parliamentary elections mark a turning point for this “small country, geopolitically extremely relevant,” with ripple effects across Eurasia. The discussion offers a hopeful outlook on Moldova’s democratic trajectory—even under ongoing Russian pressure—and underscores the challenges of meaningful reform and European integration, framed by the lingering war in Ukraine and the unresolved Transnistrian conflict. The key: resilience, international cooperation, and a society that sees its future in Europe.

For further resources and in-depth analysis, visit csis.org.