Russian Roulette – The Russia-India Relationship

Guests: Tina Dolbaia, Dr. Vasabjit Banerjee
Host: Max Bergmann
Date: October 7, 2025
Podcast: CSIS Russian Roulette

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the complex and evolving relationship between Russia and India, focusing on defense and energy ties that have defined the partnership since the Cold War. Drawing from their recent CSIS paper, guests Tina Dolbaia and Dr. Vasabjit Banerjee unpack historical roots, current dependencies, and challenges amid shifting global geopolitics—especially in light of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Western efforts to isolate Moscow.

Key Discussion Points

1. Historical Foundations of the Russia-India Relationship

• Origins of Defense and Energy Ties ([01:51])

  • The Soviet Union became a primary supplier of arms to India in the 1950s, establishing the foundation for India's modern defense industry.
  • Up to 60% of India's weapons—ranging from tanks to nuclear submarines—are still Soviet or Russian in origin.
  • Energy cooperation, including oil and petroleum products, was robust in the 1970s-80s; the collapse of the USSR led to a lapse but recent events have revived it.
  • Quote: “We really wanted to stress this underappreciated aspect of Soviet-Indian historical ties that even today plays a very significant role in the relations that the two have.” – Tina Dolbaia [03:21]

• Institutional Embeddedness ([04:39])

  • Soviet/Russian involvement didn’t just supply hardware but also influenced the organization and practices within India's defense sector.
  • Long-standing personal and institutional relationships continue to affect Indian decision-making.

• Geopolitical Calculus

  • Russia’s historical rivalry with China positions it as a valuable balancing partner for India, which shapes India’s reluctance to fully align with Western efforts to isolate Moscow.

2. Defense Ties and Diversification Efforts

• Attempts to Wean Off Russian Arms ([07:40], [08:36])

  • India has sought diversification since 2014, with notable increases in French, American, and now German defense imports.
  • Recent submarine deals mark a shift from Soviet origins towards a future, for conventional forces at least, built on NATO-supplied platforms.

• Barriers to Diversification

  • Indian defense needs: affordable, rapidly delivered weapons, and crucially, technology transfer for domestic manufacturing.
  • Western countries, especially the US and UK, have been less willing to offer cheap, shelf-ready systems or generous financing terms, with France being an exception.

• Russian Advantages and Frictions

  • Russia still offers unique tech co-production opportunities, notably nuclear submarine propulsion systems not available from NATO.
  • Persistent quality and delivery issues with Russian arms are well-known but have been tolerated out of necessity.
  • Quote: “The legacy footprint of Russia is so much... India still operates thousands of T-72s and T-90s. It's very difficult to get away.” – Vasabjit Banerjee [17:59]

• Sanctions Impact ([19:21])

  • Sanctions are likely hitting the quality and availability of Russian arms and spare parts, but India is putting up a “brave face” and downplaying problems.
  • Quote: “I suspect that the situation with the Indian military is way worse than it is letting on... it's not just about new kit like the S400... but it's also about key spare parts.” – Banerjee [20:01]

3. Energy Relations and the Oil Pivot

• Pre- and Post-2022 Imports ([21:28])

  • Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India sourced less than 2% of its oil from Russia; by 2024, that’s up to ~40%.
  • The US price cap intended to restrict Russian revenues also facilitated India’s bargain buying for domestic needs.
  • Notable Discovery: Two Indian companies—Reliance Industries (privately owned but close to government) and Naira Energy (majority-owned by Russia’s Rosneft)—account for over half of India’s Russian crude imports, with much refined product then sold to Europe.

• Political Fallout & Ethics ([27:08], [28:47])

  • The redirection of Russian oil via India, with immense profits for politically connected figures, is raising ethical questions at home and criticism from the US.
  • Quote: “If the Indian government was making bank on it and passing it on to the Indian consumers, Indian customers, Indians helping India economically develop with cheaper energy prices, I would say, okay... But the customers are not seeing anything at the petrol station. And we now know that Russia owns one of the refineries and an oligarch owns the other. That's 50%... and so this is wrong.” – Banerjee [28:47]

4. Western Policy Dilemmas and Indian Constraints

• US and European Leverage ([30:50], [31:52])

  • Enduring frustrations in Western capitals: the West wants India to cut off Russian oil and arms purchases, but offers few attractive alternatives.
  • US security assistance frameworks and ITAR (technology transfer restrictions) have made it structurally harder for India to buy American.
  • Future options might include NATO-level coordination on defense exports or relaxing sanctions on Iranian or Venezuelan oil as substitutes.

• Realistic Transition Timelines

  • Indian officials are unlikely to make abrupt changes. If shifts happen, it will be over several years, not months.
  • Quote: “But in my opinion, they are probably moving towards reconciliation. But this won't result in India halting purchases of Russian oil overnight.” – Dolbaia [33:41]

5. Geopolitical Trajectories and India’s Strategic Autonomy

• Hedging: Not East or West, But India First ([37:33], [39:23])
  • India is embracing a multi-directional foreign policy, hedging between the US, Russia, China, and strengthening ties with Europe.
  • Regional priorities (Indian Ocean, East Africa, Middle East) drive policy more than global ideological alignment.
  • Quote: “India ultimately will go its own way in terms of its regional power imperatives... It has certain regional imperatives that it has historically taken care of, and it's not interested in being a junior partner.” – Banerjee [41:58]
  • Quote: “I think the issue is the United States has to offer substitutes... You can't just like continuously restrict access. Something has to give.” – Banerjee [34:03]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On institutional ties:
  “There’s an institutional sort of penetration of India by Russia which has a historical angle to it... the Indians learn to produce their fighter jets and so on.” – Banerjee [04:55]

• On defense legacy:
  “It’s sort of like telling Europeans to stop using American weapon systems, which is, you know, fundamental to how Europe would defend itself.” – Bergmann [12:00]

• On the rationale for sticking with Russia:
  “Sustainment is key. What Russian systems offer are simplicity, easier to sustain, lower cost.” – Banerjee [17:59]

• On political economy and oil profits:
  “India maintaining world prices at a stable level is not a problem... [but] particular politically connected industrialists making bank, and Russian government making bank, that is definitely a problem.” – Banerjee [27:39]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:51] – Overview of defense/energy ties
• [04:39] – Historical roots and institutional embeddedness
• [08:36] – India’s defense diversification strategy
• [12:00] – Barriers to moving away from Russian arms
• [19:21] – Discussion of sanctions impact
• [21:28] – Oil trade and price cap effects
• [27:08] – Geopolitical fallout and U.S.-India rifts
• [31:52] – Prospects for future Western-Indian coordination
• [39:23] – India’s strategic trajectory and great power ambitions
• [44:04] – Realism about timeline for decoupling from Russian oil/arms

Episode Takeaways

• The Russia-India relationship is rooted in decades of defense and energy cooperation, transcending short-term geopolitical shifts.
• Despite intent and external pressure, India's transition away from Russian weapons and oil will be slow, due to entrenched infrastructure and lack of easy substitutes.
• Western countries must reconcile their demands with concrete offers—India requires affordable, accessible alternatives, and will not sacrifice strategic autonomy easily.
• Recent energy trade dynamics have introduced new ethical and political questions within India, and complicated its Western relations.
• India’s ultimate trajectory is one of hedging for maximum autonomy, not aligning exclusively with any single bloc.

For anyone tracking the evolving Eurasian geopolitical chessboard, this episode offers a nuanced, clear-eyed look at India’s calculations—and the limitations and leverage of both Washington and Moscow.