Podcast Summary

Podcast: Russian Roulette
Episode: The State of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations with Michael Kimmage
Date: May 2, 2025
Host(s): Max Bergman, Maria Snigavaya
Guest: Michael Kimmage

Overview

In this insightful episode, Max Bergman (Director, CSIS Europe Russia Eurasia Program) and Maria Snigavaya (Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia) are joined by historian Michael Kimmage, to dissect the current status and future prospects of Russia-Ukraine negotiations a hundred days into President Trump’s new term. The discussion spans diplomatic styles, Putin’s goals, Western responses, the European security order, and the shifting U.S. approach to Russia—providing a nuanced look at the prospects for ceasefire, the ongoing blame game, and the larger implications for global politics.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Diplomacy in the Trump Era: Top-Down and Turbulent

• Trump’s Style: Negotiations are media-driven and personality-focused, lacking mid-level, technical diplomatic groundwork reminiscent of historic processes (e.g., the Helsinki Final Act of the 1970s).
  • "This doesn't resemble [the 1970s Helsinki process] at all. This is media driven, personality driven diplomacy. The tempo is very quick, in part because of President Trump's campaign promises." (Michael Kimmage, [01:49])
• Resulting Instability: The situation is described as a “roller coaster,” difficult to characterize at any one moment.
  • References to the publicized spat and temporary intelligence freeze between President Trump and President Zelensky, followed by a more amicable Vatican meeting.
• Negotiation Dynamics: Both Ukraine and Russia are now largely concerned with shifting blame onto the other side for any potential diplomatic failure, as it shapes future international perceptions and support.
  • "Ukraine and Russia are now competing to see who can get blamed for the failure of this diplomacy." (Kimmage, [03:55])

2. Structural Problems with the Current Negotiations

• Lack of Trust and Consultation:
  • There's minimal mid- or lower-level diplomatic input.
  • Absence of consultations between the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe; even intra-U.S. coordination is lacking with unclear envoy roles.
  • "Very, very low level or almost non existent consultation...I don't see how this works without consultation." (Kimmage, [07:14]; echoed by Max and Maria)
• Mixed U.S. Signalers: Unclear U.S. representation and credibility in negotiations (two different envoys, uncertain Secretary of State involvement).
• No Implementable Framework: Unlike traditional ceasefire arrangements, there’s no detailed, enforceable plan being hashed out in the diplomatic trenches.

3. Putin’s Objectives and Western Misperceptions

• Putin’s Endgame: He’s uninterested in actually ending the war unless it’s on maximal terms. Instead, goals include:
  • Driving a wedge between the U.S. and Ukraine, and especially between the U.S. and Europe.
  • Leveraging visible Western disunity to embolden his pursuits.
  • "What Putin could achieve is a breakdown in relations between the US And Ukraine...But what Putin could really achieve is driving a wedge between Europe and the United States" (Kimmage, [06:24])
• Enduring Revisionism: Maria stresses that the West’s actions have not been the key trigger—Putin’s goals are longstanding, rooted in the core elite mentality, and not responsive to Western appeasement or sanctions relief.
  • "You can see that it's not about the west at all. It's about Putin's goals, very specific goals in Ukraine that he wants to meet.” (Maria, [09:49])
• Escalating Aggression: Attacks on Ukraine intensified post-Trump, despite Western attempts to offer concessions.

4. Ukraine’s Resilience and Prospective Trajectory

• Ukraine’s Redefined Objectives: No longer aiming to win back all territory; focus shifts to defensive endurance and maintaining cohesion with Europe.
• Potential for European Integration: Prior to February 2022, Ukraine’s EU accession was unthinkable; now it’s possible—regardless of territorial losses, that would count as a Ukrainian victory.
  • "If it should happen [EU integration], it strikes me that that is Ukraine winning." (Bergman, [12:33])
• Russia’s Strategic Failure: Putin’s actions have paradoxically radicalized Ukraine, opened doors to EU/NATO, and weakened Russia’s regional standing.
  • "By fighting the war, not only is Putin failing to win it, but he's also creating the conditions for his eventual or for Russia's eventual failure with this whole enterprise." (Kimmage, [13:07])

5. Implications for the U.S.-European Relationship and NATO

• Uncertain American Commitment: Warnings of U.S. withdrawal from talks and potential military/intelligence backing leaves Europe needing to clarify its security posture.
  • "Having connected Ukraine to European security in the Biden years and then breaking that claim, connection for the U.S. i think a lot of Europeans and Russia would try to be trying to figure out, well, where is the line? What does deterrence mean? How much integrity does NATO have?" (Kimmage, [22:29])
• Europe Must Step Up: Max is "Euro-optimistic" that Europe will fill the gap should U.S. support fade, although Michael worries about European unity and deterrence.
  • "I tend to think that what happens with when you really test the European Union...it does whatever it takes to survive..." (Bergman, [26:04])
• Sanctions and Glide Path: Even without new U.S. appropriations, residual aid and delayed arms deliveries provide a buffer; sanctions policy and intel sharing are also crucial levers.

6. Prospects for U.S.-Russia Rapprochement

• Trump’s Calculations: Sees Russia as a “country that matters” and Ukraine as one that does not, underpinning a willingness to engage Moscow.
  • "For President Trump, there are countries that matter and there are countries that don't really matter. And I think by that calculus, Russia is certainly a country that matters...Ukraine...doesn't really matter." (Kimmage, [30:59])
• Economic Limits: Both Kimmage and Maria argue that even if sanctions are lifted, U.S. and Western business is unlikely to return to Russia at meaningful scale due to political, legal, and reputational risks.
  • "I don't think that American businesses are going to rush back in..." (Kimmage, [30:59])
• Global Context: U.S. relations with Iran, North Korea, and especially China complicate any reset with Russia; Republican opposition in Congress could further stymie normalization.
• “Reverse Kissinger” Illusions: Attempting to peel Russia away from China is strategically implausible given Russia’s deep current alignment with China—trade is 70x U.S. levels.
  • "Russia's trade with China is currently about 70 times larger than its trade with the United States. I think it's a very impressive number that tells you all you need to know." (Maria, [35:48])

7. Dark Scenarios & the Future of the Liberal Order

• Territory and Power: Michael posits that Trump’s agenda, per his inaugural address, hints at a “willed destruction” of the liberal order, opening space for great-power spheres of influence and territorial revisionism.
  • "This is Trump's willed destruction of the liberal international order that for great powers such as Russia, perhaps China, the United States, not the eu, I would imagine in this scheme, they write the rules." (Kimmage, [41:28])
• Potential for Transatlantic “Divorce”: U.S. moves could lead to NATO erosion or even its end, with Europe forced into deeper defense and economic autonomy.
  • "Does that become part of some sort of broader US Russia conversation about European security?... I think there is this question of is this a true divorce in the U.S. nATO, U.S. european relationship..." (Bergman, [43:14])
• Prospects for Ukraine and Europe: Even amid West-Russia rifts, the shared trauma may underpin enduring European support for Ukraine; Michael, however, is more worried for Europe than Ukraine itself, suggesting “Europe’s up for grabs.”
  • "I worry more at the moment about Europe than I do about Ukraine..." (Kimmage, [45:35])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the futility of current negotiations:

  “They're negotiations that are structured and almost destined, I would say, to fail. And so the truly interesting question is, what would the significance of that failure be?”
  — Michael Kimmage ([03:41])

• On the performative and top-heavy U.S. diplomacy:

  “Part of me thinks that, well, that means it's not going to work. On the other hand, it sort of depends on what you're putting on the table.”
  — Max Bergman ([05:46])

• On longstanding Russian ambitions:

  “Putin actually started talking about Ukraine basically as he came to power. And he said repeatedly... that we should do something about Ukraine, otherwise we'll lose it.”
  — Maria Snigavaya ([18:14])

• On the implications of U.S. reduction in support:

  “If it goes in a somewhat more radical direction, and if President Trump would really decide to withdraw U.S. support... I think that there's a huge problem that crystallizes almost immediately for Europe.”
  — Michael Kimmage ([22:29])

• On “reverse Kissinger”:

  “We probably see this attempt at reverse Nixon, but... it's unlikely to succeed. Just one number, that Russia's trade with China is currently about 70 times larger than its trade with the United States.”
  — Maria Snigavaya ([35:44])

• On the shifting world order:

  “This is Trump's willed destruction of the liberal international order... for great powers such as Russia, perhaps China, the United States, not the EU, they write the rules.”
  — Michael Kimmage ([41:38])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & Guest Introduction: [00:06] – [01:15]
• Diplomatic Comparisons & Trump's Negotiating Style: [01:49] – [04:46]
• Problems with Top-Down Negotiation & Lack of Consultation: [06:24] – [08:22]
• Putin's End Goals and Western Misconceptions: [09:09] – [13:07]
• Putin’s Strategic Failures and Ukraine’s European Future: [13:07] – [15:50]
• U.S.-Europe Dynamics, NATO Integrity, Future Prospects: [15:50] – [23:54]
• Putin’s Room to Retreat & Russian Domestic Dynamics: [17:44] – [23:54]
• Endurance and Evolution of Ukrainian and European Strategy: [26:04] – [30:59]
• U.S.-Russia Rapprochement and Economic Prospects: [30:59] – [35:48]
• Reverse Kissinger/Trump’s Global Logic: [35:48] – [41:28]
• Potential “Divorce” in Transatlantic Relations & Conclusion: [41:28] – [46:24]

Final Thoughts

This episode offers a critical and at times somber reading of the diplomatic realities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict post-Trump’s election. The guests agree that current negotiations are largely performative and gridlocked, with the real risk being their larger impact on the transatlantic alliance and the survival of the rules-based order. While Europe may step into the breach left by a retreating United States, the longer-term prospects for both Ukraine’s security and broader European stability remain highly uncertain—with Russia poised to test the ever-murkier boundaries of deterrence and Western resolve.