Politics In 2025: A Look Ahead

Summary

Podcast Summary: Ruthless Podcast - "Politics In 2025: A Look Ahead"

Release Date: January 2, 2025

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1. Election Outcome and Presidential Mandate

The episode opens with Michael Duncan discussing the recent election results, emphasizing that the American electorate has granted President Donald Trump a clear mandate. He underscores the importance of President Trump surrounding himself with a capable team to execute his vision.

Michael Duncan [00:00]: "The election speaks for itself to me. It feels like the American people gave a mandate to President Trump... he needs these people to make that vision a reality. Let's get it done."

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2. The Critical Role of the Tax Package

Josh Holmes raises concerns about the potential failure to pass a crucial tax package by the end of the year, labeling such an outcome as "devastating."

Josh Holmes [00:45]: "The idea that we could get to the end of 2017 without doing a tax package, I think is devastating."

Both Michael Duncan and Josh Holmes agree on the non-negotiable necessity of passing the tax reforms to sustain economic momentum and honor the electoral mandate.

Michael Duncan [00:54]: "Yeah. That can't be allowed to happen."

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3. Senate Majority and Budget Reconciliation

The hosts delve into the mechanics of budget reconciliation, a legislative process that allows passage of budget-related bills with a simple majority in the Senate, bypassing the 60-vote threshold typically required to overcome a filibuster.

Josh Holmes [06:26]: "What you need to know... this is a way so we don't have to ask for seven Democrats to vote yes on a piece of legislation... we can do it with a simple majority."

John Ashbrook elaborates on Speaker Johnson's strategy to initiate at least two reconciliation packages, focusing on tax reforms and other significant policy changes.

John Ashbrook [05:43]: "Ladies and gentlemen, your attention please... it's time for our main event."

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4. Confirmation of Cabinet Nominees

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the confirmation process for President Trump's cabinet nominees. The hosts express optimism that, despite a slim majority, the nominees will be efficiently confirmed without historical precedents of party obstruction.

Michael Duncan [15:06]: "As Senator Tom Cotton said best... get those nominees through."

However, they acknowledge potential challenges with over 1,200 positions requiring Senate approval, emphasizing the need for nominees to be thoroughly prepared for hearings.

Josh Holmes [19:35]: "It's going to take some time to do that... they have to show up and be ready to answer the question."

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5. Sequencing Legislative Priorities: Taxes vs. Immigration

A core debate among the hosts revolves around the optimal sequencing of legislative priorities—whether to tackle the tax package first or address immigration reforms.

• Option 1: Pass Taxes First

  • Josh Holmes argues that stabilizing the economy through tax reforms is paramount, as it forms the foundation for all subsequent policies.

    Josh Holmes [27:28]: "The one thing that Donald Trump will be judged upon... is how's the economy going?"

• Option 2: Address Immigration First

  • Comfortably Smug and John Ashbrook advocate for prioritizing immigration, asserting that leveraging current political capital can ensure meaningful reforms.

    Comfortably Smug [32:03]: "It's time to do something about immigration in this country and you cannot... Do the border first, I don't think it'll happen at all."

• Option 3: Combine Both Issues

  • The hosts dismiss the feasibility of bundling both issues into a single package due to the high complexity and divergent interests involved.

    Josh Holmes [33:21]: "The problem with the third all in one thing... it's just a lot of words."

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6. Executive Orders as a Legislative Bypass

The discussion highlights the strategic use of executive orders to advance key policies, especially in areas like immigration, where legislative gridlock is anticipated.

Michael Duncan [36:46]: "President Trump's immigration stuff he can do by executive order if he has to."

They draw parallels with President Biden's tenure, noting his reliance on executive orders to manage immigration, albeit with mixed success and substantial legal challenges.

Josh Holmes [42:38]: "Think about what Biden did... they have no answers for what already happened."

Comfortably Smug expresses concerns about potential litigation from the left, which could delay the implementation of executive actions.

Comfortably Smug [43:52]: "The left is very good at being litigious in this area and delaying the implementation of these executive orders."

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7. Economic Stability as a Political Pillar

The hosts emphasize that maintaining a strong economy is critical for President Trump's political longevity. They warn that any economic downturn, reminiscent of previous administrations like Biden's, could severely undermine his mandate.

Josh Holmes [37:25]: "The economy's going good. It gives you an opportunity to fulfill all the rest of the stuff because they trust."

Michael Duncan [37:12]: "Businesses aren't going to be happy being like, I don't know what the hell's happening next year."

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8. Addressing Environmental and Local Concerns

While advocating for expansive domestic energy production, the hosts acknowledge that environmental and local concerns may pose challenges, particularly from states heavily reliant on tourism or with stringent environmental regulations.

Josh Holmes [34:36]: "If you're living in the state of Florida... you're worried about the environmental repercussions."

However, they contend that these are local issues rather than ideological conflicts, suggesting that they can be managed without derailing national policies.

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9. The Imperative of Unified Republican Support

A recurring theme is the necessity for a unified Republican front to pass significant legislation. The hosts caution against factionalism within the party, which could jeopardize key initiatives like tax reforms and immigration policies.

John Ashbrook [27:25]: "It's always these blue states... it's bullshit because all of their local taxes... are subsidized by flyover country."

Michael Duncan [38:00]: "Businesses aren't going to be happy being like, I don't know what the hell's happening next year."

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10. Conclusion and Forward-Looking Statements

The episode concludes with the hosts reaffirming their commitment to navigating the upcoming political landscape, promising to keep listeners informed about the administration's progress and challenges.

Michael Duncan [46:19]: "Absolute banger of an episode... here's to a new year. I think it's gonna be great."

Josh Holmes [46:40]: "Until next time, minions, keep the faith, hold the line and own the libs. Stay ruthless."

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Michael Duncan [00:00]: "The election speaks for itself to me. It feels like the American people gave a mandate to President Trump."
• Josh Holmes [00:45]: "The idea that we could get to the end of 2017 without doing a tax package, I think is devastating."
• Josh Holmes [06:26]: "You can do it with a simple majority."
• John Ashbrook [13:09]: "There is no Democrat that's gonna support the big ticket items of taxes."
• Comfortably Smug [32:03]: "We have to do something about immigration in this country and you cannot... Do the border first."
• Josh Holmes [27:28]: "Donald Trump will be judged upon... how's the economy going?"
• Michael Duncan [36:46]: "President Trump's immigration stuff he can do by executive order if he has to."

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Key Takeaways

• Tax Reforms: Identified as the cornerstone of the administration's agenda, essential for economic stability and honoring the electoral mandate.

• Budget Reconciliation: A strategic legislative tool to pass critical policies with a slim Senate majority.

• Immigration Policy: A contentious yet prioritized area, with debates on the optimal timing and sequencing relative to other legislative goals.

• Executive Orders: Seen as necessary to advance policies amidst legislative hurdles, particularly in immigration.

• Unified Party Support: Critical for passing legislation, with awareness of internal Republican dynamics and challenges.

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Note: This summary excludes non-content segments such as advertisements, intros, and outros, focusing solely on the substantive discussions and analyses presented during the episode.

Transcript

[Michael Duncan]

The election speaks for itself to me. It feels like the American people gave a mandate to President Trump. Part of that mandate is he has a team in mind to help him accomplish everything he wanted to get done. And I think, as Senator Tom Cotton said best, he was like, you know, there's this talk that, oh, you know, there's a tradition of some president, you know, his own party shooting down at least one of his nominees. And Senator Tom Cotton said that's not true. There isn't historically. And he doesn't anticipate that being an issue for President Trump either. And so I think just get those nominees through. It's what President Trump wanted. He had a vision that the American people agreed with, and he needs these people to make that vision a reality. Let's get it done.

[Josh Holmes]

The idea that we could get to the end of 2017 without doing a tax package, I think is devastating.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah. That can't be allowed to happen.

[Josh Holmes]

I think the one thing that Donald Trump will be judged upon and given leeway in the rest of the three years. How's the economy going? How's the economy going? Because the economy's going good. It gives you an opportunity to fulfill all the rest of the stuff because they trust. They trust like Iran. That's a big part of it. Let's turn this ship around.

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[John Ashbrook]

Ladies and gentlemen, your attention please.

[Comfortably Smug]

Just a catching strays over here.

[Josh Holmes]

You're in for a hell of a.

[Michael Duncan]

The faith, hold the line and own the libs.

[John Ashbrook]

It's time for our main event.

[Josh Holmes]

Happy New Year, America. Here we are with a brand new day right before us. A bunch of whole lot of excitement.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah. And I know you guys are going to give me for this, but as the years roll on, it gets harder to make it to midnight. I will tell you, every single year, it's like you pull 10 or 15 minutes off of your ability to make it to midnight.

[Josh Holmes]

Kids. It's kids. You just blame the kids.

[John Ashbrook]

I think that's part of it's the.

[Josh Holmes]

Stress involved in it. That's part of it anyway. I'm Josh Holmes along with comfortably smug Michael Duncan. John Ashbrook, left, right across your radio dial. What we aim to do for you today is give you a little indication about what you're in for here for the next 30, 60, 90 days, well into the first year of a Trump administration. What it is that we're up to. Because, look, you go through a course of a campaign. Everybody makes grandiose promises. A lot of discussion about all kinds of different things. Most of the crazy shit is all on the Democratic side, but there's stuff that, like, takes more than just a promise to get it done. There's legislative activity. There are things like Cabinet nominees that need to be done. We all know the issues that are kind of before us and what this election was litigated upon. And we're gonna talk to you a little bit about how all that works, set some expectations. So you're not calling us in, like, February, and you're like, what? I was already told there was no tax on tips, just by virtue of electing Donald Trump. Well, he's very committed to do it. No question about it. We're gonna talk a little bit about how you get that stuff done, right, fellas?

[Michael Duncan]

I mean, a lot of it to me is. And why the American public voted the way that they did to elect Donald Trump, is it feels like an era in America has come to an end. This kind of, like, negativity, this kind of, like, well, you know, our best days are behind us kind of thing. So if nothing else, this new era, I think 2025 is going to mark this kind of resurgence in patriotism and optimism. It really feels like we avoided the bad timeline if America had not elected Donald Trump. And I think all the Americans, especially those of us who voted For Donald Trump, January 1st felt like a really great day because, you know, this is going to be a great year.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. No question. Certainly in a much better circumstance than we found ourselves over the last four. And that comes along with a Republican Senate, some new members there, a Republican House, a very small majority. I mean, historically, maybe the smallest majority in history, given the Cabinet appointments that took out. It's going to take us a little time to fill those through special elections. Like, we're dealing with some thin stuff here.

[Comfortably Smug]

Not a lot of margin for error.

[Josh Holmes]

Not a lot of margin for error. And it has a lot of insiders who are committed to try to accomplish the Trump agenda. A little bit concerned because you got a combination of varying factors. You're dealing with big issues that a lot of people disagree with, not just on ideological partisan lines, not because they oppose Donald Trump or his agenda, but because it may not fit their constituency well. And when you deal with these big ticket items and you have no margin for error, you gotta, like, sequence these things and you gotta make sure that you're paying attention to it. We're gonna do our very best on the ruthless variety program to give you a little. As a little more nuts and bolts than we typically do here, to just kind of like keep you along for the cause, you know, like six weeks from now, you're gonna get a cable news primetime segment that it's like, why haven't they gotten this done? Well, we're gonna tell you why it is that you shouldn't be surprised, be surprised for that conversation.

[Michael Duncan]

Our listeners, you are very lucky you tuned into this one because you're about to get some inside information on how it's actually done.

[Josh Holmes]

Now, we spent a little time under the dome. We understand how these things have gotten done. And let's start with a clip from Speaker Johnson, who lays some of this stuff out.

[Speaker Johnson]

Everyone is absolutely determined to get the budget done very quickly. Right out of the gates we began. Yeah, we're going to do that early January. That will set the table for the reconciliation process. And the reason that's so important, of course, for folks back home. Remember, the only way around the 60 vote threshold in the Senate to go with the bare majority is the reconciliation process. You're reconciling the budget. Right. So 51 votes in the Senate is the magic to do the real policy change that we want. We think we can squeeze a lot into that limited process. There probably will be at least two reconciliation packages. So the determination right now is where does the tax piece fit in? Do we do that first out of the gates, or do you. Do you wait a couple months to get all that done? Because it can be very complicated.

[Michael Duncan]

Okay, can we take one quick step back? So for folks like me.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Michael Duncan]

Who didn't work in Congress and don't know what any of that means, what the hell is reconciliation?

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, it's an economic.

[Michael Duncan]

There's a super.

[Josh Holmes]

There's a super funny for your OG Ruthless peeps where I just. Smash and I had just gotten out of government. We dealt with, quote, unquote, reconciliation for a lot of years. And for whatever reason, we couldn't make one of the tapings that we did on Ruthless when it was vitally important that we talk about reconciliation because it meant a very significant thing. And this is like, we're talking like year one here. And you and Duncan, were forced to do your best to try to explain.

[Michael Duncan]

We were going over the Google Doc and they're like, this is the discussion on reconciliation. Do you have this? And I was like, yeah, I got this.

[Comfortably Smug]

Yeah, totally.

[Michael Duncan]

I'm rolling up to the studio. I pull up reconciliation on Wikipedia. I read a lot, and it's like, it's a lot of words, bro. And so then the mics cut on, we start talking about it, and he.

[Comfortably Smug]

Just throws it to me.

[Michael Duncan]

I was like, I got this. He just throws it to me. So reconciliation is an economic bill. Duncan, can you explain more? Then I just, like, chill.

[Josh Holmes]

Duncan's like, I'm the IT Guy. Yeah. What are you doing with. What are you doing?

[Comfortably Smug]

But I mean, it's. It's not that complicated. I think you're short selling our audience a little bit there. But it's basically just like legislation that impacts the budget.

[Michael Duncan]

That's right. It's an economic bill. I mean, I think that's line one of Wikipedia. It's an economic bill. I had that part down.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Comfortably Smug]

But the important part is that it's a legislative maneuver so that you can only. You only need 51 in the.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. I'm not going to go into the details of how this became.

[Comfortably Smug]

The only thing you need to know as a listener or viewer is like, this is a way so we don't have to ask for seven Democrats to vote yes on a piece of legislation in the United States Senate. We can do it with a simple majority.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. And it has become frequent in recent years where you have a very partisan Democratic majority who both opposes everything that Republicans are trying to do, and then when they get in power, only want to do things that all of, like, the leftists of the left can do. So, like your bipartisanship, which used to be sort of a hallmark in my lifetime, it was a hallmark that you do in the first quarter because everybody recognized what an election was litigated upon. You wanted to be engaged in that you would engage in a bipartisan way and try to fix some of the problems the American people sent you there to do. Well, Democrats have thrown that out the window. And so reconciliation is now the process. It's a budget move where it's just that it just requires 51, a bare majority in the Senate, which we now have 53 votes. So that's a possibility. We actually have a larger majority in some ways than you'd have in the House. So this is where this whole thing becomes a little bit more problematic. Right. Because there's a bunch of if you heard what Speaker Johnson just said, he said we're going to do at least two reconciliation bills. What it requires first is for the Congress to pass a budget. It does not need to be signed into law by the President of the United States, but the House and the Senate need to agree on budget parameters. This has become somewhat comical in recent years because presidents send budgets to Congress that they reflect their priorities, not an actual lawmaking piece. Right, right. Huge deficit spending stuff you would absolutely never do. But it's almost like the thing that the President talks about in the State of the Union. Like I sent a budget to go do X and get credit with that constituency, knowing the Congress is never going to agree to all of that piece. But Congress gets it and they basically have to figure out how to pass this thing. And if it got to a point where everything that they were passing in a budget. I want to be very clear about this. A budget just like authorizes things, it doesn't spend things. You have to pass appropriations bills that actually spend your money as a taxpayer. That comes later. So this broad outline where people are having these fights about what this means and what it doesn't mean shit. It just means that everybody can agree on these broad parameters of things that you can do to go forward that enable you to do things like budget reconciliation. Why that is super important this time around is because you have a tax bill that was passed in 2017 because it's been through reconciliation and it was a death, you know, quote unquote from cbo. A deficit spending measurements like it's sunsets. So it's going to be gone at the end. So all the tax relief of the 2017 tax bill goes away at the end of this year. No matter what. If you pass nothing, you're going to get massive. You get a 20% hike in corporate tax, 20% hike in those pass through LLC that do manufacturing, business and everything else and all kinds of different tax remediation that has been done underneath that to help middle class families unfairly labeled as a tax cut for the rich. Which is completely absurd if anybody actually looks at it. And it had the benefit of helping our economy along the way. All that goes away unless they do something about it. And the only way that they can do that is by passing something on an all Republican supported deal. Because there is no Democrat, let's be honest. Would Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema left the building as they did after November? There is no Democrat that's in a moderate state.

[Comfortably Smug]

Maybe Fetterman, maybe I think on some.

[Josh Holmes]

Issues, not on budget, I don't think on this issue. Right.

[John Ashbrook]

And you may have some Democrats who pretend like they're middle of the road, who are like, you know what? I want to work with you on X tax provision that helps their state. But at the end of the day, they're not going to vote for, for the Republican tax package as blessed by President Trump.

[Josh Holmes]

Right. They're just not, because it's their own constituency, their own primaries, their own issues that they have to deal with. So let's be very clear. There is no Democrat that is gonna support the big ticket items of taxes and I'm guessing probably not on immigration, despite the fact that they got completely waxed on that. I'd love to be surprised. But those are the two things that he is talking about when he says, we're probably doing two reconciliation bills now. It'll include things like energy, it'll include important other pieces, maybe some things with telecom, maybe some other stuff that encompasses what you can get in there. But like, the big ticket issues that they're talking about are the issues that were litigated in this election, which is the economy and the border. And so that's what he's talking about. So let's break this down just in terms of what it is that you expect to see. What's going to happen right after today? You're going to get hearings in the Senate with the eye towards confirming as many cabinet nominees as you can by the day that Donald Trump is inaugurated. We've heard a lot about where these whole things sit. Interested in everybody's reaction on achievable, not achievable, what else to look at? Smug. What do we got?

[Michael Duncan]

For me, I think that the election speaks for itself. To me, it feels like the American people gave a mandate to President Trump. Part of that mandate is he has a team in mind to help him accomplish everything he wanted to get done. And I think, as Senator Tom Cotton said best, he was like, you know, there's this talk that, oh, you know, there's a tradition of some president, you know, his own party, shooting down at least one of his nominees. And Senator Tom Cotton said that's not true. There isn't historically. And he doesn't anticipate that being an issue for President Trump either. And so I think just get those nominees through. It's what President Trump wanted. He had a vision that the American people agreed with, and he needs these people to make that vision a reality. Let's get it done.

[Josh Holmes]

I don't have to tell you Americans are ready for what's next. Moving beyond the hardships of inflation and economic anxiety towards building a future, a better future for our families, ensuring greater access to more affordable energy that powers daily lives, reliable energy that fuels innovation and economic growth, and the abundant energy that keeps our nation safer and more secure. It's all within our grasp. We'll do this together, building a brighter future for us, powered by America's oil and natural gas resources. You can learn more about all of [e-mail] Duncan yeah, I mean, I agree.

[Comfortably Smug]

With everything that Smug said. Look, none of what Donald Trump is doing within these nominations should be a surprise. I mean, RFK was campaigning for him, right? I mean, like the American people bought his plan from the beginning. And so I think we need to execute on it.

[John Ashbrook]

I would say that if, if they're, if the other side's talking point is at least one nominee doesn't get through. I would point you to Matt Gaetz, who has already withdrawn. So Democrats already have their one. And you're looking at a full field of nominees who are walking into all these Senate meetings totally prepared. They, you know, Pete Hegseth, for example, Pete Hegseth is a very, very smart guy, twice Ivy League educated. He was serving in action. And he has a vision for the Department of Defense that might be different from what the establishment wants. But this is a guy who is very serious about making change where change is needed. Rfk, same thing. This is a guy who has a little bit of a different point of view than what K Street is comfortable with. But isn't it about time that we the people deliver something that is a little bit different than what K Street is?

[Michael Duncan]

And I'll trust a jacked RFK over the current person. Jacked, you know, who President Biden puts in there. You don't know if it's a woman. You don't know if it's a guy. They're going to tell me how to make my health better or this dude who's jacked over here, I'll trust him.

[Josh Holmes]

I think, I think there is a lot that they're surfing on top of in terms of the predecessors in the Biden administration where you look back at it, you're like, jeez, yeah, yeah. I mean, I don't care who this person they got anyone with the pulse.

[Michael Duncan]

Is better than what we.

[Comfortably Smug]

Right. I mean, it's like, it's not like the Senate is supposed to be a rubber stamp. And I don't like when people say that. It's like These are Donald Trump's picks, so you have to confirm them because, like, that's just not true. And that's not the role of the United States Senate in our democracy. Right. Like, it is advising, consent, all that sort of stuff. But at the end of the day, it ain't getting worse. It ain't getting worse compared to what?

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, yeah, no, I think that's right. Look, my whole take on the confirmation process, which is going to take a significant amount of time, in the Senate, you get two calendars, a legislative calendar and an executive calendar. And the executive calendar, when it's rolling, like, you just, you have to process as many things as you can, but one objection draws these things out. Now, they can get it done at a 51 vote threshold, but it's going to take some time. It's not just for the Cabinet secretaries, which I think will get a thumbs up, thumbs down very quickly in a lot of that, we got deputy secretaries, you got a whole bunch of Senate.

[John Ashbrook]

Confirmable stuff, like 1200 people.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, it's going to take a while to do that. And it gets like, you have to run parallel tracks. And that's the trick when we're talking about government. We're outside of campaign season. You're now talking about the parliamentary process to actually make those things a reality. And this thing is, is going to be tricky to get the people that they need in place in a timely fashion because, you know, Democrats are just not going to cooperate.

[John Ashbrook]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

They're just not going to. I also think that the hearings have told everybody this. Everybody would like to have your point of view on this smug where it's like, the guy won the election, he made no bones about what it is that he wanted to do. These are the people here to execute their job. I don't disagree with that at all. The thing is, is that there's an awful lot of United States senators who have huge deference for Trump because of that question. But they also have huge questions on very specific things, things. And so I think the hearings actually matter here.

[John Ashbrook]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

Like, typically they don't. Typically, it's basically like either this is just a partisan vote or this is going to be, you know, something where Democrats have some relationships and they'll support, a few of them will support it and it gets through. And the hearings are sort of a lackluster deal. You know, you think about guys like Mnuchin, for example, where it's like he, you know, not a part of the political process. Everybody knows he's a pretty smart guy, but he gets there and like, the hearing was kind of like, yeah, he looks like he can do the job.

[John Ashbrook]

But when you get to some of these Under Secretary, remember, this is like 1200 people that have to be confirmed. When you get to some of these undersecretaries, then questions start being asked and they better be ready. I remember this here is. Is not one of. This is a judge that famously, John Kennedy asked him some votes, very basic questions at the beginning of the Trump administration. And the guy just could not answer the basic questions and looked like an idiot. So every single one of these guys and women have to show up and be ready to answer the question. I will tell you, 1200 people, they're not all going to be winners. The President of the United States is putting his name on them, but that doesn't mean that he is talking to every single one of them at length. That's just the way it works.

[Michael Duncan]

It was like a few weeks back when we were making where they ran the clip of the current ambassador to Greece when he was trying to be the ambassador. I can't remember where.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Michael Duncan]

And the dude couldn't even answer a question.

[Josh Holmes]

He was like, what's your name? He looked like Alvin Green, that Democrat nominee for Senate in 2004. Right.

[John Ashbrook]

And so that's why President Trump is telling every single one of these people, you gotta go up there and you have to convince them. You have to win it. It's up to you. Because he can't do everything for everybody.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[John Ashbrook]

You know, like, it's incumbent upon them to do their homework to know these.

[Josh Holmes]

Senators and have a strategy for what is ultimately gonna get you into. Right. So, like, RFK is a good example. I think the vast majority of Americans have bought in to make America healthy again. I think vast majority of people think that that is exactly the way we ought to go. I think he gets a little loose with language in asserting studies that don't exist or asserting findings that may be questionable at best. And now he has the opportunity to rein that in and just show that he's rock solid. The hearings are for that. Right. I mean, you saw a little dust up last week where some stuff came out about him questioning the legitimacy of a polio vaccine. Well, I don't know. You've got a former majority leader that's still there who suffered from polio. I bet he's got a pretty serious opinion about that. And he made that known like, you need his vote. So those are the opportunities to go out and discuss all of those things in great Detail. And I think the Republican conference, unlike 2017, is much more deferential. They think he knows what he's doing. Like there was a real question in 2017 about whether this guy knew what he was doing or not or if he just sort of like fluke one, a presidential election. And he gave some people reason to believe that this time around he's much more control of what it is he wants to do. Also a much better idea that like none of these guys are going to go off doing something that doesn't reflect what it is that he believes.

[Comfortably Smug]

Well, I think the most important thing a person like RFK can do in those hearings is just reassure the senators that he is going to do all of his due diligence on all of those things. I mean it's fundamentally a different role to be in the job. He's being, you know, they're being asked to confirm him to. And being a patient advocate.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, he was advocating for a cause and now he's actually representing the United States.

[Comfortably Smug]

Yeah, right. It's fundamentally a different thing. And if I was him, that's how I would explain it. It's like, look, I, of course I have my fundamental beliefs and sometimes when you have fundamental beliefs, it leads you to believe things that are put in front of you.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Comfortably Smug]

You know, I'm sure there's things I've said on this show that aren't 100% true, but I thought that they were at the time or I read a story that characterized it that way. Maybe that story wasn't accurate. These things happen all the time.

[Josh Holmes]

What you just said in the context of a hearing would be perfectly acceptable to Republican senators.

[Comfortably Smug]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

To the best of my knowledge, I thought that this was an accurate set of information.

[Comfortably Smug]

I didn't have the perfect set of information. When I'm going to be confirmed into this role, I'm going to defer to, you know, the science based studies in front of me and all the things that are peer reviewed and then make a more fulsome formulation of what the opinion is of me and what the policy of the United States should be.

[Josh Holmes]

And also your opinion versus the opinion of the President United States, like for example, like RFK State. See on that example, like this is guy who's as pro choice as he can possibly get. The only area of the federal government where that becomes an issue is in the context of hhs. Right. So the pro life community is going to need to hear that my policy is Donald Trump's policy.

[Comfortably Smug]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

On that we haven't heard that yet I imagine we will hear that. But that's a really important. If you're looking to try to get 51 Republican senators to vote for you, very important that you reiterate that component. Right. And, like, disabuse people of some of the conspiracy stuff that, like, I think is unfair in a lot of ways, because they try to make him. And there was a bipartisan effort to try to make him unfair when both nominees of the parties wanted a binary choice between the two. So it's not like we're not guilty of that, but people like, you know, they sort of made him into a caricature.

[Comfortably Smug]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

And I think he's got an opportunity to do that. Like Tulsi Gabbard, another one. She's got huge amounts of stuff on the record about Edward Snowden and things like that that are greatly concerning to a number. I'm not talking about like, five. I'm talking about, like, 35 Republican senators. Putting that stuff into context of what you enable, what you're trying to do with the new job is what hearings are for. So all of that stuff I just go to say, like, the hearings here, I think make a difference in a way that they don't ordinarily do.

[Comfortably Smug]

If RFK just walks up there and says, I'm bringing beef tallow fries back at McDonald's, I mean, he gets confirmed by acclamation. That's what I want to say.

[Josh Holmes]

I feel like that might be right. So, anyway, the Senate's going to be busy on that. And then the reconciliation piece, it breaks into two issues that are very, very contentious within Republican circles at this very moment about what goes first, how do you structure it. It's between taxes, immigration, and I'll call it the rest, which there's a huge energy thing, there's a telecom thing. There's a whole bunch of different stuff in there in the rest bucket. My issue is when you're dealing with majorities that are so small, you have to do what you have to do because you never know what tomorrow brings. The idea that we could get to the end of 2017 without doing a tax package, I think, is devastating.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah, that can't be allowed to happen.

[Josh Holmes]

I think the one thing that Donald Trump will be judged upon and given leeway in the rest of the three years is how's the economy going? How's the economy going? Because the economy's going good. It gives you an opportunity to fulfill all the rest of the stuff because they trust. They trust, like Iran. That's a big part of it. Let's turn this ship around. And the key to all of that is this tax package. And so there's been a lot of discussion. You know, there are some who are suggesting they ought to do the immigration and the rest of the stuff first when they have the most political capital, because it's the most difficult thing to do. There are others, like Hugh Hewitt, our buddy, who have argued they ought to do it all at once because you get one bite at the apple and we'll see what happens. I understand the logic of it. My fear is having spent 20 years doing immigration policy in this town, it's not just you don't get a middle of the road objection where that thing goes south. It's like somebody off the right hand side who's like, I'm not voting for it because it doesn't do everything I want it to do. It is the most puritanical issue that there is before Congress in that the people who just have an idea of what they want to do, they want, they don't want to do anything else.

[John Ashbrook]

Right. I will say, you know, thinking about the immigration issue and thinking about the way that Trump has driven this over and over and over again since he showed up on the scene, I think this issue is extremely important for him. And I think about a guy like Stephen Miller. So Stephen Miller got his ass kicked up and down the mainstream media for years because he was ringing the alarm bells about the dangerous military age fighting men who are coming over from countries that are north or South America. He was punished for being right. This guy is singularly focused on actually getting an accomplishment. And I think he can do it. And I think so. You've seen what I'm getting at. You have seen so much coverage of the machinery behind President Trump that they will primary Republicans who aren't on board. And I think that machinery needs to apply to knuckleheads on the Republican side who are like, wait a minute, what you're proposing, President Trump and Stephen Miller isn't enough. I don't subscribe to your, to your philosophy on this immigration package because it's doesn't fit with my perfect vision of what needs to happen on immigration. Something needs to happen on immigration and nobody is more credible to actually do it than President Trump and Stephen Miller.

[Josh Holmes]

Agreed with you.

[John Ashbrook]

And I really hope that all of that machinery is right over these people who are considering opposing what it is they're doing because it is so important to this country that we get something done.

[Michael Duncan]

That's a really good point because like the last thing we need, the last thing the American people want, who elected Donald Trump, is for people to stick out like sore thumbs and try to be like, no, no, no, no. I want to make this about me. This bill isn't good enough.

[John Ashbrook]

I'm sorry.

[Michael Duncan]

I think President Trump knows what he's doing.

[Josh Holmes]

I'm just telling you it's coming. We can wish it away.

[John Ashbrook]

It is coming, but.

[Josh Holmes]

It's coming.

[John Ashbrook]

It is coming, but it's incumbent upon the Trump machinery to look at these guys who are complaining. They're like, oh, Stephen, this wasn't submitted with the right TPS report. We can't build a wall. We can't kick these people out. I'm sorry, blah, blah, blah. It's like, no, idiot, we have to do something about immigration in this country and you cannot. This is our chance.

[Josh Holmes]

But typically about this, I'm just telling you from a leadership perspective, overseeing this issue for a number of different years, typically you think about this as like your center squish. It gets a little.

[John Ashbrook]

This is a little uncomfortable, right, about.

[Josh Holmes]

Deportations or a little uncomfortable about some of the more restrictive border policies. I'm just telling you, I don't think that's a problem.

[Comfortably Smug]

I don't think it's a problem either. I don't think anybody disagrees that it would be the problem. I think it's obviously like the, you know, very conservative members who would find a way to defect and all that sort of stuff. I think all the more reason for it to be the first thing, because no super conservative member of the United States Senate wants to oppose the president on the first piece of legislation, cross the transom. Like, that's, that's my opinion, because I don't think, like, if you don't do border first, I don't think it'll happen at all.

[Josh Holmes]

I mean, this is the argument, because.

[Comfortably Smug]

We saw this happen in the first Trump administration and all of the hand wringing and the shit happened, like, if you put it first, it gets done.

[Josh Holmes]

Although very, I will say this look accurate history. The first thing out of the gates was the repeal of Obamacare, right down by one vote from John McCain. They immediately turned around and they passed the very tax act that is that we're talking about, about the basis of what the reform will be. So they did have some political weight and momentum behind trying to get something else done after it failed. Yes, I guess. I guess the issue is like, how do you sequence this in a way where you can build on successes and move forward? And there's Three options. The first option is you go taxes first. The second option is you go immigration, the rest first. The third option is you try to put it all together in one. The problem with the third all in one thing is just look at the tax thing. I mean, you got Republicans that are all about the SALT deduction, which what that is is it sounds ridiculous. And if you're not in part of this, like, excuse me while I explain it, like SALT is state and local tax deductions. It used to allow people who are from very high taxes states horrible.

[Michael Duncan]

The Northeast horrible.

[Josh Holmes]

States that have like these massive double digit state income taxes and property taxes and everything else to deduct that from their federal taxes when they're sending their tax reform. All that did is Republicans rightly diagnosed and Donald Trump diagnosed is create an incentive structure for all of these liberal states to keep doing what they're doing, right? Because they never actually had to pay.

[Comfortably Smug]

The price because it's going to be subsidized by flyover states. All of these red states that they love to complain about. It's the thing that bothers me so much when they're like, you don't look at these net tax, you know, donors to the government, yada yada yada. And it's always these blue states and they're always talking about how Kentucky's a welfare state or Indiana is a welfare state and it's bullshit because all of their local taxes and their liberal governance at the state level is subsidized by flyover country. It makes me so pissed when they say stuff like that.

[Josh Holmes]

But that's a very real issue, right? As is all of these other things. When you start getting into again with.

[Michael Duncan]

Such a slim House majority, listen, you've got Republicans from the state of New York who are like, listen, my voters, they'll want blood if I can't get.

[Comfortably Smug]

And I get it.

[Michael Duncan]

It's a pickle.

[John Ashbrook]

When you roll it all together, it gets infinitely more complicated.

[Josh Holmes]

You open up. Let's just take energy, for example. 40 states or so are like, great. Open up every single amount of domestic energy we can. We understand the national security importance. It's going to help all of us. It'll lower costs. It'll do all that. Like, that's great. If you're living in the state of Florida, you have a different opinion about all of that. Your revenue is coming entirely off of tourism. The idea that your beaches can be clean as can possibly be. You're worried about the environmental repercussions from anything that's Happening offshore. If you're in certain other states, you don't want wind farms and stuff. I don't think that's on Trump's agenda. Yeah, but I'm just saying, like, it kills the birds. Yeah, it does, but it's. But it's a bunch of different. Like, these are local issues.

[Comfortably Smug]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

They're not ideological issues.

[John Ashbrook]

That's right.

[Josh Holmes]

So when you open up beyond taxes and you start like, salt is a good local tax issue, but if you open it up beyond that, you're not dealing with partisan stuff. You're not dealing with my adherence to President Trump's agenda. You're like, does this. What does this do for my constituency? And the larger it gets, the more opportunity. And you can only lose two.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah, it's that slim, right?

[Josh Holmes]

So, like, these are the things that you're going to be hearing a lot about in the month of January that ultimately will set about the agenda now. Either way they go, I'm totally on board. I just think if I'm them, if it was my decision, I want to make sure your economy's straight up. I want to make sure as quickly as I can. You have markets set because it allows you to do everything. If you get any sort of economic anxiety in the mid half of next year or the latter half of next year, it immediately comes right back onto to Trump and erodes away the political capital that he's built over the last six months and into the election and beyond, and it erodes his ability to do everything else. I would put that tax thing as sacrosanct as I possibly could, if only because that's the motor on your boat.

[Michael Duncan]

And me, I'm always very pessimistic about things. Like, I always try to think, what's the worst possible case scenario? And that typically becomes my baseline for trying to figure out things. So when I look at the sequencing on these two issues and these two issues of how they need to be rolled up, I think worst case scenario, it's not ideal, but a lot of President Trump's immigration stuff he can do by executive order if he has to, right?

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Michael Duncan]

You really can't do the taxes and economic stuff by executive order. And the sooner you get it done, the sooner businesses across this country know, okay, we're in the clear, let's start hiring, let's rev this economy up, let's get this thing rolling.

[Comfortably Smug]

I get that. I get that. I guess I just worry about, like, the issue losing momentum. Like, here's the thing, there's always going to be a Permanent constituency for cutting your taxes. And there are people and there's companies and there's business leaders that are always going to be coming to Washington to say, yes, we need to do that tax package. I worry that like when the border's out of the news or the border patrol isn't having a microphone from their face, that the issue doesn't get done because like two members are saying, well, I like making, you know, perfect. The enemy of the good.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Comfortably Smug]

You know, and so like where while you have the momentum of having won the election, do the border thing first and we'll get the taxes done. Because people always like their taxes getting cut. You know what I mean? I see, I see the point of like you do the taxes first because the economy is what he will be judged on. And that's 100%. 100% true. But I just don't want to lose this opportunity for have the first thing out the gate. The most difficult thing. Sometimes you have to run right at the most difficult thing because that's when you have the most political capital.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, I, look, I get it.

[Michael Duncan]

Such a pickle. It is.

[Josh Holmes]

But look, to your point, I mean, the polling couldn't be better.

[Comfortably Smug]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

When it comes to the issue set of immigration and everything else, it's not going to get better. Right. Can we put up graphic one, please? So if you look at this, Mass deportations. Mass deportations. Right. We're talking about 62% of your voting electorate. That is for mass DEPRA. 53% of Hispanics. I mean, we're talking about. This is a seismic change and you don't know how permanent all of that is.

[Comfortably Smug]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

And could you take advantage of that to actually get something done for the first time in our lifetimes that is serious about restricting immigration? And that's what they're weighing. That's what Stephen Miller and everybody else is weighing is, is like, yes, it's obviously the right time to do it. But you also have all this other stuff that if it somehow slipped, I mean, think of a situation where you're in a immigration and the rest category and you just can't figure out how to get a majority in the House to do it. You have a two seat majority, somehow it slips and you immediately turn to taxes or you try to do a little of both. Like the traction slips. Like all of a sudden there's an element of failure that you're dealing with now. It worked for him in 2017. They were able to do it. But my fear is, I mean they were working against no baseline in 2017 for the tax side.

[John Ashbrook]

Right, right.

[Josh Holmes]

The tax side was like, either it's going to get better or it's going to stay the exact same. This one, it's going to get monumentally worse or it's going to get better.

[Comfortably Smug]

Which is why.

[John Ashbrook]

Which is honestly, it's one of the reasons I sort of agree with Duncan and I'm perfectly willing to be persuaded this year that, that they shouldn't do immigration first and taxes second. But the other thing that you have about doing taxes second is a backstop of a cliff at the very end of the year. And when you action forcing moment, when you have all of these lawmakers staring down the 26 midterms, looking at the year end deadline and posing the question to them, are you actually going to let taxes go up again?

[Michael Duncan]

My concern in the meantime, businesses aren't going to be happy being like, I don't know what the hell's happening next year. And we can't afford. Because we already saw what the economy's like when President Trump's in office. That's why so many people support him. That economy was awesome. The sooner we can settle these businesses being like, listen, things are okay, you know, let them know as early in the year as possible so that they just start hiring. It's not going to get supercharged.

[Josh Holmes]

Smug, you're right. And it's not, it's not a static analytic. It's not, you don't just get what you got now or you do something on taxes. It's a cascading effect. And there is nothing that gathers snow on a snowball faster than an economy that is losing confidence and it becomes a political problem. As we saw with Joe Biden, inflation never recovered from it. Never recovered from it. And it was. If you allow that snowball to get bigger and start, people start questioning your commitment to get things done on that front. It bleeds into everything else because it affects, it's the only thing that's guaranteed to affect everyone, you know, and so I think it's, look, whatever they come out on, it's fine. But I think an added piece of texture to this is something that you raised. Smug, which is the executive order component. And like, what we're gonna see day one is a whole lot of return to the Trump era in terms of what the executive can do. And if you had any question about that, like, even if you questioned about how it is that Donald Trump managed to look like he locked down the border with his executive orders before Biden got on Board, like, look at what Biden did.

[Michael Duncan]

Yep.

[Josh Holmes]

Spent three and a half years ushering people through the gates of America. And then all of a sudden they were like, oh, we got a political problem here. Let's shut it down with executive orders. And they did. Largely. They did. I mean, not nearly to the extent that we would like. And they have no answers for what already happened, which we need to answer for now. But, like, it stemmed the tide by like 70%. So there's a huge amount that the executive in and of itself can do with energy, with immigration, with all kinds of different things that facets of the economy and social policy and whatnot on day one.

[Comfortably Smug]

Yeah, it's true. It is true. I do worry, however, that if you do executive orders on, say, immigration, that the left is very good at being litigious in this area and delaying the implementation of these executive orders. You know, I mean, we saw it during Donald Trump's first term when he tried to do executive orders on immigration policy. But, you know, if, if Donald Trump at the very least can reverse some of these Biden era regulations, you know, that impact farmers and small businesses and things like that, I mean, the American engine of the economy will start roaring again, I guarantee you that.

[Josh Holmes]

Yep. No question. And people just need a little safety and security.

[Comfortably Smug]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

You know, I mean, the ending of catch and release. Yeah, right. Deportations, asylum restrictions, increased personnel at the border, all that stuff can be done on the executive side. Limit humanitarian product protections. Yeah, those. That's a broad category that's been abused.

[Michael Duncan]

During the Biden years.

[Josh Holmes]

Totally abused.

[Comfortably Smug]

I mean, remember, just for our audience, like, the Biden administration, through fema, redirected money out of helping people in North Carolina. That money was supposed to keep Americans safe when we have emergencies. And they gave it to illegal immigrants to give them housing.

[Josh Holmes]

Think about that, think about that, think about that. And Trump, interestingly, had a piece where they addressed, you may have seen in the news, the Biden administration selling pieces of the, of the border wall for.

[John Ashbrook]

Five bucks a pop.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. Like it's cents on the dollar. He addressed that in the press conference yesterday where he was like, look, I gotta build this thing. It's gonna happen. And all you're doing by getting rid of this stuff is charging taxpayers five times more than it was when I first paid for it, which is why it's sitting there right now, because you guys didn't do your job. What a great mess. He was like, it's not partisan.

[Comfortably Smug]

No, it's a great message.

[Josh Holmes]

It's like, it's not partisan. A Republican or Democrat thing.

[Comfortably Smug]

It'll be even better when they whine and bitch and complain when we now have to authorize more money for the wall because. Because they fucking threw it away.

[Josh Holmes]

Cause they sold it.

[Comfortably Smug]

I would love to see that Democrat answer that question on primetime television.

[Josh Holmes]

Totally. I completely agree. So anyway, that is look a little bit more serious than we typically do.

[Michael Duncan]

But it's important.

[Josh Holmes]

But there are things like judges, potentially at the end of June, maybe a Supreme Court opening or two. I mean, there's stuff, there's real things.

[Comfortably Smug]

That are gonna happen. New Year, new me, New America.

[John Ashbrook]

But you know what? It's time to get to work.

[Michael Duncan]

That's right.

[Josh Holmes]

It is. It is. And we thank all of you for being along the ride with us. We're going to take you through and you're going to hear from some of the people who are making all of these decisions along the way. We can't wait to do. We can't wait to find out more about all of that. You got to like and subscribe. Got to remember you like. And not only just to comment, but just so your friends can hear this wisdom. That's right, fellas got wisdom here. So you got to get in on all that. With all that being said, fellas, I think we did it.

[Michael Duncan]

I think so. Absolute banger of an episode. Gentlemen, thank you so much to the minions and here's to a new year. I think it's gonna be great. So until next time, minions, keep the faith, hold the line and own the libs. We'll see you on Thursday. Stay ruthless.

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