What To Expect From The Midterms + US Attorney Jeanine Pirro

Summary

Ruthless Podcast Summary

Episode: What To Expect From The Midterms + US Attorney Jeanine Pirro
Date: January 27, 2026
Hosts: Josh Holmes, Comfortably Smug, Michael Duncan, John Ashbrook
Featured Guest: Judge Jeanine Pirro (U.S. Attorney for D.C.)

---

Episode Overview

This episode serves as the kick-off to Ruthless’s deep-dive coverage of the 2026 midterm elections, focusing on the stakes for the U.S. Senate and exploring key battleground races. The hosts analyze the frontline contests, candidate profiles, intraparty dynamics, and what’s at stake for both parties—including how control of the Senate could impact a Trump administration. The episode concludes with a high-energy interview with Judge Jeanine Pirro, who discusses her aggressive prosecutorial reform in Washington D.C.

---

Main Themes

• Midterms Importance: The GOP’s urgent need to retain and expand its Senate majority, especially critical for President Trump’s legislative and judicial agenda.
• Candidate Match-ups: Analysis of the most competitive Senate and gubernatorial races state by state.
• Party Dynamics: The nuanced differences among candidates, primary tensions, and broader party strategies.
• Law and Order: Judge Jeanine Pirro discusses a law-and-order-focused approach in D.C., with implications for national debates on crime and prosecution.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Senate Map & Control

[03:13 – 07:24]

• GOP currently leads 53–47; Majority Leader John Thune’s leadership discussed.
• “Frustration with the Senate ‘cause of the filibuster…but it’s the difference between Trump having a cabinet or not.” — Josh Holmes [06:18]
• The Senate functions as a bulwark against impeachment, Supreme Court vacancies, and aggressive Democratic spending.

2. North Carolina: The $600 Million Battleground

[10:53 – 16:28]

• Michael Whatley (GOP, Trump-endorsed) vs. Roy Cooper (Dem, two-term governor).
• “Cooper was in charge when the hurricane hit and the state did not come to people’s aid…he’ll struggle with that.” — Michael Duncan [12:06]
• Crime and Cooper’s “moderate” branding are critical Republican attack points.
• “He runs as though, shucks, just one of the guys…but he governs as a lunatic, an absolute lunatic.” — Josh Holmes [15:32]

3. Georgia: Flipping the Senate

[16:32 – 22:15]

• Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) viewed as vulnerable due to left-wing voting record and lack of authentic state representation.
• “I’ve never seen a United States Senator look more out of place than that guy.” — Josh Holmes [17:59]
• Three Republican challengers: Buddy Carter, Derek Dooley, Mike Collins.
• Atlanta suburban shifts and rural turnout cited as pivotal.

4. Maine: Susan Collins—Rhino or Strategic Asset?

[23:42 – 29:37]

• Despite Maine being blue at the presidential level, Collins repeatedly defies expectations.
• “I understand she might not be your cup of tea, but I mean, if she's a rhino, she's your rhino.” — Smug [26:01]
• Recalls Collins's decisive role in Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

5. Michigan: Open Seat Chaos

[29:37 – 35:14]

• Dem primary is messy: grassroots vs. establishment.
• “You're building on top of that rather than building from scratch.” — Josh Holmes [35:10] on Mike Rogers’ second run.
• GOP optimism high for a flip here.

6. Texas: Three-Way Primary Drama

[35:14 – 43:23]

• John Cornyn (inc.) vs. Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt: “I want them to be so far right, they make me nervous.” — John Ashbrook [37:23]
• Runoff could boost more MAGA-aligned, ultra-conservative candidates.
• Democratic primary drama with James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett; Talarico’s alleged scandals are discussed tongue-in-cheek.

7. Alaska: The Schumer Wildcard

[43:36 – 47:29]

• Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D) may become competitive.
• Alaska polling notoriously unreliable; Democrats' hopes may be overblown.

8. Ohio: The “Rash That Won’t Go Away”

[47:30 – 51:43]

• John Husted (R, DeWine appoint) vs. Sherrod Brown (D).
• Brown’s “moderate” veneer called out: “It's like battered wife syndrome, these voters of Sherrod Brown.” — John Ashbrook [50:38]

9. Other Key Races

• Iowa: Ashley Hinson to run for the open seat (Joni Ernst retiring). GOP farm system praised. [51:43 – 53:53]
• Louisiana: Bill Cassidy faces Trump-endorsed Julia Letlow and Treasurer Seth Fleming; “content” and “endorsement” banter over Commander's Palace. [53:54 – 57:48]
• Minnesota: Michelle Tafoya’s entry shakes up GOP hopes vs. “crime org” Dem machine. Republican endorsement process lampooned; need for relatable candidates emphasized. [57:56 – 64:31]

---

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Candidate Authenticity:
  “If they come in here and douche it up, that's the thing—you can’t vote for them.” — Josh Holmes [04:21]

• On Senate Majority:
  “You don’t have a perfect Senate majority without people like Susan Collins.” — Josh Holmes [28:09]

• On Georgia Politics:
  “Ossoff should be beaten. Republicans should be able to get this.” — Michael Duncan [17:59]

• On Texas Primary:
  “If we have a red state like Texas, I want the senator there to be like a prepper who eats rattlesnakes.” — John Ashbrook [37:23]

• Comic Relief:
  “Whoever brings the most beignets…” — Smug, on Louisiana endorsements [57:56] “I'd love to see Smug on a fan boat in the bayou.” — Michael Duncan [58:31]

---

Interview: Judge Jeanine Pirro, U.S. Attorney for D.C.

[68:45 – 76:51]

Major Highlights:

• D.C. Crime Turnaround:
  “Right now, homicides are down 60%, violent crime is down more than 30%...My predecessor did not prosecute 60% of arrests. We prosecute those cases now.” — Judge Pirro [69:33]
• Institutional Pushback:
  “You don't have to be a rocket scientist to fight crime. You fight crime by doing investigations, making arrests and getting convictions.” [71:03]
• On D.C. Council Laws:
  “We were able to convict an 18-year-old who shot a person on a public bus... The judge says, ‘I think you should go to college,’ and that's it. He walked.” [71:54]
• National Security Focus:
  Details prosecution of high-profile cases including Lockerbie, D.C. Capitol murders, Venezuelan ships, cybercrimes, and scams targeting Americans. [73:33]
• On Illegal Crime:
  “If you come to this country and you’re a criminal, you gotta go, you gotta go. We’re not going to support you.” [73:58]
• Law Enforcement Support:
  “Anyone who takes a weapon and aims it at law enforcement, you have to expect that law enforcement is going to respond in a way where they're defending themselves. All this namby-pamby, leftist stuff—they’re playing in the wrong lane.” [76:00]

---

Closing Thoughts

• Ashbrook urges candidates to fight for endorsements “by getting us a table at Commander’s Palace.”
• The team teases further midterms coverage, more candidate interviews, and encourages listeners to comment with predictions and state-by-state insights.

---

For Listeners:

• Expect diverse, in-depth candidate interviews in coming months.
• Key message: Senate control determines everything from impeachment to the Supreme Court to federal spending—turnout and candidate quality are pivotal.
• Stay tuned for more “lighter analysis of the news (and fake news) of the day,” and remember: “Keep the faith, hold the line, and own the libs.”

Transcript

[Josh Holmes]

Consider this the ultimate kickoff to the midterm discussion that we're gonna have.

[Michael Duncan]

This could be one of the most expensive races. Watley has said that it might be the most expensive race across the map.

[John Ashbrook]

Republicans have a super majority and have run that state very well on the state level with one exception. And this is the big problem is Republicans have not had success in the governorship for quite some time.

[Josh Holmes]

One it's gonna be competitive. Two it's gonn expensive.

[Smug]

Yeah.

[John Ashbrook]

Whose operation can bring out a tidal wave of rural Republican voters.

[Josh Holmes]

Yep.

[John Ashbrook]

Because those are the people that are needed to win this race in the general.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. You're gonna look a lot at where everybody's base of support is for sure.

[Michael Duncan]

Washington politicians are always getting in your wallet. Now they're messing with your credit card. Your credit card and the security it offers are under attack. The Durbin Marshall credit card bill would change the nation's payment system to benefit corporate megastores like Wall Street, Walmart and Target at the expense of everyday Americans. Credit cards keep your payments secure and provide rewards that families use to help make everyday purchases more affordable. The Durbin Marshall mandates would let corporate megastores cut corners on credit card processing, routing transactions over cheaper, untested networks with weaker security and fewer protections. That means higher risk of fraud, greater chance of stolen personal data, and the loss of rewards programs just so corporate megastores can pocket billions of dollars in higher profits. Tell Congress to guard your card. Visit guardyourcard.com to take action and learn more.

[NetChoice Representative]

In America, parents call the shots for their families, not bureaucrats. But the so called App Store Accountability act puts your child at risk. This bill requires app stores to collect children's sensitive personal data while taking away power from parents over how their child's data is handled by tech companies. Parents should get to decide if their child's age is shared with apps, not politicians. Parents should attest to their kids ages, not turn over birth certificates to tech companies. Congress don't put kids at greater risk online and box parents out of making decisions for their families. Tell your lawmaker to put parents first. There are better ways to keep kids safe. NetChoice is dedicated to making the Internet safe for free expression and free enterprise. Learn [e-mail] keepappstores safe.

[American Petroleum Institute Announcer]

Ladies and gentlemen, your attention please.

[John Ashbrook]

Keep the fate, hold the line and own the lids.

[Michael Duncan]

It's time for our main event.

[Josh Holmes]

Good Tuesday to you. Welcome to the ruthless Friday program from A snowy Washington D.C. i am Josh Holmes along with comfortably smug Michael Duncan and John Ashbrook, left to right across your radio dial. A lot of people call in on times like this. Not the Ruthless Variety Program.

[John Ashbrook]

Rain or shine, we are here for our dear listeners and viewers on YouTube.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, exactly. Well, we're gonna do something special for you here today because we're gonna do a couple of things. First off, you know, we've been putting off the whole midterm discussion and that we've had basically every candidate in every state that matters and district that matters call and ask. They wanna come talk about their primaries, they wanna come talk about the generals, all this kind of stuff. And we've just basically told everybody at this point, like, let us get to that portion of the program. Cause there's. I mean, look, with Trump, every day is a news day, and there's been an amazing amount of stuff going on. And we wanted to get through all to get to a point where we can focus on things that ultimately matter to you an awful lot, like who the hell your candidates are, who you're gonna support. So I think what the next couple of months you can expect from the Ruthless Variety Program is for us to talk to an awful lot of people. You know, we'll make it fun, by the way, because we know, like, ultimately how you judge these things, like, there's not a ton of difference between Republican candidates on tone. And, you know, basically, the overarching view is similar in many regards. But if they come in here and douche it up, that's the thing, you know, you can't vote for them.

[John Ashbrook]

And I think that's a critical thing, is, you know, typically with these candidates, you'll see them on TV and they've got 60 seconds. Give your, like, elevator pitch. Okay, thank you for your time. Goodbye. When we bring the candidates in, you get time to actually understand who this is, decide if they're the candidate for you. Because here's the thing, is there's lots of folks who listen to this show who you may not have a senator in cycle, you may be, unfortunately cursed to live in a blue state. But I've always advocated for if you find a candidate that you think is nailing what's important to you, who you feel like is going to make a positive difference for this country, you can support them even if you're not in that state. And that's part of the reason we love having all these candidates.

[Josh Holmes]

As we've come to find out in recent years, a Senate majority is particularly important for a Trump administration, and no more so than here, because we know, as Trump has said, like he's going to get impeached again if Democrats take over the House and Senate. So we're going to start with the Senate and then we'll do more House stuff as we go. But consider this the ultimate kickoff to the midterm discussion that we're going to have here over a period of months. And, you know, we'll get through. We're going to go through the MAP a little bit and give us some thoughts and the candidates, some people that you're going to hear from here on the Ruthless Variety program. And then we've got an ultimate great interview here at the end. Smash you did. That has nothing to do with the map. Has everything to do with Law and Order.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah. Janine Pirro, Huge is the attorney for the District of Columbia and she is knocking heads over there. She is taking crime very seriously, which is something that office hasn't done in quite a long time. Very interesting conversation. The woman has an awful lot of energy. So you won't want to miss that at the end of the show.

[John Ashbrook]

Great. Get Ashburn.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, yeah. Totally awesome. So you're going to have that as a bonus for all of this. But let's just set the table. We'll start with the Senate. It is a 5,000, 347 breakdown. Currently Republican Majority Majority Leader John Thune, you can see the dividends on that based upon appointments, confirmations and the big beauty and things like that that happened here over this year. Always some frustration with the Senate because of the filibuster and all of that kind of thing. But ultimately it's the difference between having a cabinet and all of the executive appointments that President Trump makes or not. Because there is no chance that Chuck Schumer, he's made that very clear. If he is the majority leader of the Senate after these midterms, he's not going to allow anything. And furthermore, they're going to try to spend us into oblivion, use everything as leverage. I mean, you saw the they're in a deep minority and they shut down the government for 45 days. So you can only imagine this is real life consequences.

[Smug]

And it's the backstop against, like you mentioned impeachment or like, you know, if there's a vacancy on the United States Supreme Court.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah.

[Smug]

I mean, you want to have the United States Senate in that circumstance.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah. Ask Barack Obama how it feels to have the other party control the Senate when a vacancy opens up in the Justice Garland.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, yeah.

[John Ashbrook]

He had to learn.

[Josh Holmes]

He did. He did. He took it out on us. Ultimately, at the end though, I think I, you know, as the ag, he was pretty vindictive. Yeah, pretty vindictive. But, you know, at least he's not there for a generation. So anyway, 5347 is where we start. Here are the opportunities as everybody, layman view, as you just look at the map before you know anything that's specific, there are pickup opportunities on both sides. If you put up graphic one, these are Republican held states where Democrats are currently competitive. You'll notice your home state of Ohio on there, Johnny, and we'll talk about all of this in more detail. Maine, where Susan Collins resides and has put a graveyard of Democrats to bed over the last umpteen many years in North Carolina, your home state. So like, you know, I mean, there's a lot there. And then we've got Alaska, which has just recently come online because of a couple of recruiting successes by Democrats to try to make that competitive. If you look at graphic two, this is where we start on the Republican side, which is Michigan, New Hampshire and.

[John Ashbrook]

Georgia, seats that we want. Republicans want to pick up.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, these are Democrat held seats. That there is better than a puncher's chance. Of course with Michigan and Georgia, you're talking about two seat, two places where President Trump won in 2024. In places, honestly, you have had some weak Democratic representation. In the case of Michigan, it's an open seat now, as is New Hampshire. Now that list expands beyond. There are more opportunities out there than just that like Minnesota. We talked about there's some new candidate situation that we'll cover with all that. But that's basically where this whole thing starts. North Carolina, of course, was the retirement of Thom Tillis, which sparked an open seat. Anytime there's an open seat in North Carolina, they're guaranteed a couple things. One, it's gonna be competitive. Two, it's gonna be very expensive. Yeah, Democrats, I feel like it's the Democrat version of New Jersey in a lot of different ways for Republicans in that they've just never learned the lesson of where the votes ultimately are. They spend $150 million every time out. They always have come up short over the last 15 years. But we haven't had this open seat deal in a long time. Of course, Tillis was there for 12 long years. We had Burr who had it for a number of years. And then, you know, look, that whole thing in 2020 was a great deal for Republicans and that we solidified both Republican Senate seats, what seemed to be for a while. But with Tillis retirement, all of A sudden you'd have a void that needs to be filled. And a good friend of the program, former RNC chair Michael Whatley, came on, announced, got the Trump endorsement. He's basically the candidate there.

[John Ashbrook]

There'S a lot, there's a lot about this race.

[Josh Holmes]

So I want to hear your thoughts.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Sure.

[John Ashbrook]

So let's start with Michael Whatley. So Michael Whatley has extremely deep roots in North Carolina politics. He isI mean he'll never try to take the credit, but he is to a great extent the architect of why statewide Republicans on the state level have a supermajority in terms of the state legislature with the assembly and the state Senate. Republicans have a supermajority and have run that state very well on the state level with one exception. And this is the big problem is Republicans have not had success in the governorship for quite some time. And, and who's running a former governor of North Carolina, Cooper, who has name recognition right off the bag. Right. He's a two term governor so he can win statewide, which senate's a statewide race. He has an operation that's won statewide. He's already got the voter lists of people that he's been able to successfully get out to vote in two elections to win statewide. And he is able to raise an insane amount of money.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah, he really is. And Josh mentioned this could be one of the most expensive races. Watley has said that it might be the most expensive race across the map. He said it could be $600 million. No Senate race, all in, outside, inside money on the Democrat on the Republican side has ever cost $600 million in the history of our country. He seems to think that this race could have a price tag that high. And part of the reason for that is because Republicans are running against the incumbent governor Roy Cooper. And now Cooper has a problem. Cooper was in charge of the state when the hurricane hit and the state did not come to people's aid in the western part of the state. And you know, I think he's going to have to, he's going to struggle with that. If you look at the polls early on in this race, you see Roy Cooper with an advantage smug mentioned his name id. His name ID is the reason he has that early advantage because Michael Whatley has not held a statewide office. He is not the household name that Roy Cooper is. Over the summer, you, you're going to see those numbers start to move a little bit as money is spent, advertising is run and this will become a much more competitive race than what you're Seeing right now.

[John Ashbrook]

And a very last thing I want to put real quick for you, Wayne Duncan, a very critical thing to mention about Roy Cooper is I know everyone knows about Irina Zarudska getting murdered in Charlotte and the criminal who was let out again and again and again and again. That was on Roy Cooper's watch when he was Attorney General and when he was governor and his soft on crime policies which allowed people. He was a huge proponent of letting criminals out of criminal justice reform, which was why you can't safely ride mass transit in Charlotte and why an innocent person can get murdered is because it was Roy Cooper who championed these policies. That needs to get tacked to Roy Cooper in North Carolinians minds. They have to understand this guy had multiple opportunities to make North Carolinians safe and it's because of him innocent people lose their lives. That's going to be incumbent on the Whateley campaign to make sure that's what Roy Cooper's known for. Because right now he's known for the biggest lie that it's I'm a moderate, like we just discussed about Abigail Stanberger. Same playbook of he schemes and he tricks people into thinking he's a moderate. He's a left wing lunatic who let criminals out and didn't care about western North Carolina.

[Smug]

Yeah, he's gonna run like the Abigail Spanberger of North Carolina who runs a campaign about being a moderate but governs like a radical left wing lunatic. And there's a track record there that smug, illuminate and it's incumbent on the Republicans in North Carolina, the campaign, the super pacs, everybody else to focus in on that stuff. And I think you guys all nailed it on the stuff that is substantive.

[Michael Duncan]

Right.

[Smug]

Like we're not calling him a radical lunatic in a 30 second ad. There's a track record here on things like crime, like sanctuary cities, like failing to deliver for the people in North Carolina in the flood, like all that stuff.

[Josh Holmes]

You know what? His rise to his prominence was in a very different era.

[John Ashbrook]

Also the trans thing.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. The rise to national, to prominence of Roy Cooper in a very different era in American politics was him adamantly opposing any effort to ensure that men couldn't use women's restrooms if they put a dress on.

[John Ashbrook]

Yep.

[Josh Holmes]

Right. I mean, and like that was a winner for him because the left funded him to the hilt. And he went and attacked everybody who would be so intolerant as not to allow men into girls bathrooms and locker rooms and all that kind. Now politics of that has all change. But back to your Point about what's incumbent upon the Whateley campaign and the Republican Party. You need to remind people of that because this guy is going to run, as the Abigail Spamberger recall on Tuesday. There is no such thing. Is a moderate Democrat. He is, case in point on that. He runs as though, shucks, just one of the guys here in rural North Carolina, understanding your roots and everything. And he governs as like a lunatic, an absolute lunatic, you know. And so anyway, this is going to be a race that is a massive one. Yep, massive one.

[John Ashbrook]

I don't think Wally's estimate of how expensive it's going to be is off. I think it's going to be that big.

[Josh Holmes]

It could be. The other one that we focus on is Georgia. Georgia, look, I mean, if you've paid attention for more than five minutes over the last five years, six years, Georgia is the epicenter of what determines majorities, minorities, presidents, not presidents. It has become a very competitive state.

[John Ashbrook]

Now.

[Josh Holmes]

You've got people like Governor Brian Kemp who have done quite well there. You've also had a state legislature under Kemp's leadership that has sort of held the line on it.

[Michael Duncan]

But.

[Josh Holmes]

But everything is always extremely competitive, including the 24 election where Trump won comfortably. But it's still a very competitive race and one that everyone pinned the outcome of 2024 on, whether or not Georgia went red or Georgia went blue. So now you enter this sniveling little asshole Ossoff, who won by a nut hair in 2020, surfing off coattails of all kinds of ridiculous changes and voting behavior and everything else in Georgia, and he went to a runoff, ultimately sneaks in the Senate. I've never seen a United States senator look more out of place than that guy. Like, generally speaking, these people are pretty representative where they, like, accomplished. You know, whether you agree with them or disagree with them, they're like, they're kind of statesmen in some regards. This is not him.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah, the guy is, in a lot of ways, the accidental senator. And he is a fish out of water when it comes to campaigning around the state, a fish out of water when it comes to delivering for the state. But the guy raises money, and if you look how much money he's raised, you know, this is, again, going to be a very competitive state. The nature of Georgia has changed over the last few years. That's why there are two Democrats representing the state instead of two Republicans, which we had just less than 10 years ago. So this is going to be a very competitive race. Ossoff should be beaten. Republicans should be able to get this. We've got three candidates running in a Republican primary. I think all three of them have the capability of beating Jon Ossoff. But in the same way that Trump had to work overtime to win that state in 24, these guys are going to have to work overtime to win in 26.

[Smug]

You know, the thing that fascinates me about Georgia and Ossoff in particular, it's, I think it's totally different than like the Roy Cooper situation, North Carolina. And that is like, if you looked at like that New York Times map on, on shifts in the vote in 2024, county by county breakdowns, you saw a lot of red arrows.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah, right.

[Smug]

A lot of red arrows. Thing that I thought was very interesting is some of those donut counties around Atlanta countervailed a lot of what we saw in a lot of other competitive states. They actually shifted a little bit blue. Now, of course, that was swamped by Donald Trump's massive turnout in the rural areas across Georgia and that ultimately delivered.

[Josh Holmes]

Him the state, such as the challenge for Republicans in the midterms.

[Smug]

Which is my, which is my point to this is in seeing the way that Ossoff has voted here over the last year. It's not like he's like hugging the middle of the road. No, he's voting like a left wing lunatic, you know, like Bernie Sanders voting record. And I think that calculation from him is, well, Trump voters aren't going to show up.

[John Ashbrook]

So all of our listeners in Georgia, that's good insight.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah. The Ossoff bet is that the money he raises will insulate him from the left wing voting record he has tallied up in his time as even more.

[Josh Holmes]

Even more critically, the bet there ultimately you're not going to turn out. Yeah. If you're in Georgia, they have made a calculated bet when they march in to support every one of Chuck Schumer's deals, the government shut down sight on scene like that. He was not. Nobody ever asked where he was on the government shutdown. He just did it.

[Smug]

Which is just a wild thing because Georgia's been the epicenter of like the flip flop back and forth of our politics for the last six years. No one ever asked, where's Jon Ossoff on this?

[Josh Holmes]

No, because he's just a left wing lunatic and everybody knows it. So you never have to question where it is he falls on any of this stuff. But he's betting because he looks at what we talk about all the time on the program, which is the Republican Party base that used to be Suburban in nature at a 78% midterm turnout. And now it's a rural base that has a 57% turnout. And his bet is the gulf between those two things. It doesn't matter.

[John Ashbrook]

He wants to raise money and do turnout among the Atlanta areas because he's like, these Republican voters in rural areas, they're not gonna turn out to vote.

[Josh Holmes]

Yep.

[John Ashbrook]

And so he's gonna try to just run off the scoreboard in Atlanta and surrounding suburbs.

[Michael Duncan]

Well, we got three capable Republican candidates.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. So let's toss off. Toss graphic four up here. All right, so this is Buddy Carter, Derek Dooley, and Representative Mike Collins. All three of them have called. All three of them are friends of the program. All three of them will be on the program here in the upcoming weeks. We wanted to delay this to a point where we felt like we could kick off a full midterm preview. So you'll be hearing from all of these guys. Either one of them can win.

[Michael Duncan]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

It's just a matter of figuring out the right. The best campaign. I think the best campaign probably wins that primary and therefore is best suited to take on Ossoff in the general. But make no mistake, like, if you think the 5347 is a high water that, like, can't be beaten, you're wrong about that. And it could very well come down to who wins Georgia.

[John Ashbrook]

I mean, that primary might not be a bad test to be, like, whose operation can bring out a tidal wave of rural Republican voters.

[Josh Holmes]

Yep.

[John Ashbrook]

Because those are the people that are needed to win this race in the general.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

You're gonna look a lot at where everybody's base of support is for sure. For sure. So when we come back, we're gonna go up to Maine to talk about Susan Collins and then a whole bunch of these other things that we highlighted at the top of the program, including an expanse of the map to these other states that you all live in that are going to have competitive races right after this.

[American Petroleum Institute Announcer]

Energy is all around us. It's how we move, how we build, and how we make every day a little easier. We're all around America's oil and natural gas, supporting 11 million good paying American jobs across the country and powering our way of life. But energy demand is growing and fast. That's why we need to overhaul our broken permitting process to unleash America's abundance, natural resources, strengthen national security, and create a future where American energy leads the world. What America builds today will help secure a more affordable, more reliable future with enough energy to go around. For generations to come. Our country can't wait. We must pass permitting reform now to help secure American energy dominance. Because when America builds, America wins. America's oil and natural gas, paid for by the American Petroleum Institute.

[Josh Holmes]

Okay, so what you have to understand about a Senate Republican majority, and maybe it's worth a little bit of an exploration as to what it is that we did for a living before we did this, and we were in charge of it for the better part of a decade, actually a little over a decade, where you would recruit candidates and you would run these campaigns, all in an effort of trying to get a Senate Republican majority. We were successful in 2014, held on in 2016, gained seats in a very tough 2018 year. And then we had this horrible Georgia runoff situation in 2020, which, of course, President Trump lost his reelection. And so too, in a runoff, did we lose two seats in the great state of Georgia that we talked about. But in order to get a map together, you have to steal something somewhere in a state that isn't red, that isn't about having the most conservative candidate available. It's somebody who can reliably win in a state that otherwise would be probably a blue state. And for Democrats, they used to do that with like Joe Manchin in West Virginia, right, or John Tester in Montana. People who are winning seats they had no business winning, but they could steal majorities because they flipped the map in some ways by renting it. Remember six year terms, you rent it for three straight cycles at that point, when you do that. Susan Collins in the state of Maine has done this for the Republican Party for a very long time. It is a very Democratic state. It is not competitive at a presidential level. Donald Trump has gotten his doors blown off there three times. We've had trouble being competitive at a congressional level. It is a difficult northeastern New England place where Republicans have had a large prohibition to victory just based on what the electorate is and what motivates them. That is not applied to Susan Collins. Susan Collins has swum upstream into headwinds every time she's been up. And I think the Last one in 2020 was a pretty good example when Democrats thought, well, it's the ones in the bank. They had this. They changed the voting rules. They changed. They went to ranked choice voting, all in the hopes of taking Susan Collins out.

[Smug]

It wasn't just the Democrats. The media had entirely written off as a foregone conclusion that, well, of course Susan Collins was gonna lose like there was. I think it's one of the biggest failures of Journalism in the entire election cycle is they not only got it wrong, they stopped talking about the race. Cuz these journalists bought hook, line and sinker with Sarah Gideon. And these Democrats of the DSCC were telling about how Susan Collins doesn't have a chance. And I understand she might not be your cup of tea, but I mean, if she's a rhino, she's your rhino. She's your rhino. Okay. We have no other choice.

[Josh Holmes]

Well, you wouldn't have a Supreme Court.

[Michael Duncan]

Exactly.

[Smug]

Kavanaugh, who was lied, maligned, he ends up on the Supreme Court because of a person like Susan Collins. Like, that is politics.

[Michael Duncan]

So last time in the 2020 CYC, Susan Collins faced Sarah Gideon. It was just basically one person. It was an anointing for the Democrat. Right now Democrats do not have the same situation. They have a hot primary between the governor, Janet Mills and this upstart lunatic.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah, the guy with the Nazi talked.

[Michael Duncan]

About a bunch on this show and both of them have released competing polls showing them up like 5% over the other one. The other one says 5% over the other one. You don't actually. The Maine is actually a very, very difficult place to pull.

[Smug]

Yeah.

[Michael Duncan]

Historically, it just is. And I think that Susan Collins is in a position, if you look at the numbers, the one thing that's nice about her being there so long is you can get a body of work on polling about her that gives you a better idea of how she looks than a brand new candidate on the Democratic side. So she is in the exact same, if not better position than she was in 2020. Democrats are fighting amongst themselves and ruining their images. Heading into a general against her. She's gonna be a juggernaut. I like her holding onto this seat.

[Smug]

Yeah. And One Nation, I think, just reserved like $40 million SLF did. Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. If you come to a live show, I'll tell you a little bit about some of my experiences with Donald Trump. Talking about the great state of Maine back in 2020. I got some good stuff.

[Michael Duncan]

Stories.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, I got some good stories.

[Smug]

Oh, I've heard these stories.

[Josh Holmes]

But they can't be recorded, so we'll have to do it live. But they're very, very funny because he's focused on this stuff. And you know, people make a big deal out of the fact that there's differences between the Trump administration and Susan Collins. Like, I'm sure that everybody within the Trump administration would love if she was a more reliable Republican vote. The fact is she wouldn't be elected if she wasn't. So this is One of those like swallow your tongue type deals for the rest of us in terms of where ultimately you want a Senate majority versus what's the perfect Senate majority? Because you don't have one without people like Susan Collins. And she's been tougher than nails on the stuff that matters. The Kavanaugh thing will forever change my view. I mean, I'll defend her to the end of time based on that one that radicalized me personally, the fact that we knew Brett Kavanaugh. He's a good man. I mean, total family man. And Democrats tried to. Me too. The guy with an absolute fabrication. And she didn't stand for it. And she was the deciding vote about whether they win and fundamentally change history. Cuz it's not just about that Supreme Court seat. If they win doing that kind of tactic, who knows what the world looks like today, Right?

[Michael Duncan]

But the reason she wins in Maine time and time again is because she's not afraid to go against her own party. That's something that people in Maine pride themselves on being independent thinkers. She really has a finger on that pulse. And so she. I think, I think she's the favorite here.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, I think so too. I feel better about it than I do in 2020. But moving on to Michigan, which is a state that has bedeviled Senate Republicans for many years. It's been since Spence Abraham, since a Republican has had a United States Senate seat in the great state of Michigan. But they've gotten darn close in recent years. Then of course, the 2016 victory by Donald Trump and the 2024 victory by Donald Trump has given Republicans an awful lot to crow about in terms of their ability to make this a very competitive state. Made much easier when the incumbent decides he's retiring. That's of course, Senator Gary Peters. He is out. And now you have again an open primary, just as we talked about in Maine. Look, everybody likes to focus on these Republican primaries. Democrats have a very unique situation this time around in that there is a huge amount of energy and funding behind candidates who fundamentally are out of step with their states. In Maine, you got that Graham Plantner guy who's an absolute lunatic, but he's beating Janet Mills, a former governor. Any poll.

[John Ashbrook]

I mean, Janet mills is like 3,000 years old.

[Michael Duncan]

3,000.

[Josh Holmes]

A perfect Chuck Schumer recruit, right? If it happened in like the early.

[Smug]

2000S, he's all for almost as old as Ashburn.

[Michael Duncan]

Mills has Mills and she claims her polling shows her ahead.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, well, she claims, but I haven't seen it all. I've seen is the public polls in which she's getting her ass kicked by a literal psychopath with a Nazi tattoo.

[John Ashbrook]

I mean, think about that.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, I mean, that's what's going on there. So if you go to Michigan though, we've got a similar situation. Right. I mean, you've got former health director of Wayne County, Abdul El Said, who I have imagined is taking advantage of the quote unquote Michigan problem.

[Michael Duncan]

Right. The problem that you're describing on a Democrat primary level is magnified X number in the state of Michigan where they don't get along precinct by precinct. And one of the interesting things that I've heard that's starting to develop is that this woman, Haley Stevens, is running a campaign and the other two are basically Twitter candidates.

[John Ashbrook]

That's right.

[Josh Holmes]

State Senator Mallory McMurrow and Representative Haley Stevens are the other two candidates involved in that. And again though, you've got a grassroots versus establishment recruiting and support problem that's playing out there. And honestly, look at the polling. I don't know, man. Like at this point it's got 27 McMurrow or. No, it's 27 with Stevens, Stevens, 24 McMurrah. And this El said guy was 16. I mean you're early on in the process.

[John Ashbrook]

A third of the voters haven't are still undecided. And I think Ashbrooke, your sources on that are 100% correct because you basically only hear about El said McMurrah, who has just been a lot of online like media darling who they've been like constantly pulling for this lady for like it feels like a decade now, for any time she runs for office, all the like online journos in Brooklyn because it's like she's a Brooklyn candidate. Like all her friends are in Brooklyn. All her beliefs come from Brooklyn. That's why she's ever gotten any traction. And so journals will do write ups about her even though she's running in Michigan.

[Smug]

Well, and also journals like they like to countervail what they think is going to happen sometimes because that's sexy and interesting, you know, and it's like Haley Stevens, who I think has the personality of a fucking rock. Yeah, zero.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah, but, but you're not wrong.

[Smug]

I mean, and she puts her foot in her mouth like every other day. Yeah, but like for a risk averse like Democratic establishment in Washington D.C. she's the perfect candidate.

[Josh Holmes]

Well, it's certainly better than the Dearborn candidate.

[Smug]

Well, yeah, but like she came up at the same time that like Alyssa Slotkin came up like these were women, you know, who. Who won, you know, swing districts, you know, in. In. I think it was 18 or whatever. Anyway, my point is, is, like, she's the safe pick. And so, like, she's like the D.C. pick, I think, of that primary. But what I'm curious in and I hope. Hope this is a fun thing we get to enjoy over the course of this cycle, especially in complicated primaries on the Democratic side like this is like, what are all their opinions of Chuck Schumer?

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Smug]

Are they gonna vote for him?

[Josh Holmes]

Well, they've done a little reporting on all that, and it was noticeably quiet.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah.

[Smug]

Interesting. I think we need to hound these people and get them clear and on the record.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. There's some of them that clearly are all in for getting the largesse of his super pac. And then there are others who are like, are you kidding me? Everybody fucking hates this guy.

[Smug]

Yeah.

[Michael Duncan]

Given the politics in the state of Michigan, you got to think that the wedges that are driven in a Dem primary will last through to a general. And Republicans are fortunate to have Mike Rogers running again.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Michael Duncan]

So you've heard him so close. You heard him on the show.

[Josh Holmes]

You've heard him on the show. He was on here when he announced, and that is consolidated on the Republican side. He is the candidate. He's Trump endorsed. He is moving forward, and he came within an eyelash of winning the thing in 2024. It is in states like this. It's been my experience where you have a candidate the first time statewide comes really close. If they go again, they have a much better set of traction. Right. Those relationships are made. They're fresh. People know who they are. You're not introducing yourself to an electorate. You're just showing back up at their doorstep again. And so where we've had a lot of success in picking up Senate seats that are incredibly tough. States are exactly the situation that Rogers finds himself in. Right.

[Smug]

Dave McCormick.

[Josh Holmes]

It literally.

[Michael Duncan]

Exactly.

[Josh Holmes]

And that's because people know them, they trust them. Didn't work out the first time, but you're building on top of that rather than building from scratch. And I just, look, I like our chances there. I think the environment's gonna be tough, as it always is. 100 plus years of history of incumbent party, of the president not doing well in the first midterm. But this is a place where I think you can buck conventional wisdom in a serious way and Republicans can pick that sucker up. The next one I want to get to is probably the most complicated of all of them. Senator John Cornyn he's got a crowded primary. Attorney General Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt. Congressman Wesley Hunt. You've heard Cornyn and Wesley on here. Obviously they're both good friends of the program. I've met and talked with Ken Paxton on a number of occasions over the last decade. Known to be a solid conservative and a decent guy. Lot of baggage there that people are trying to suggest could be problematic in a general election, which is of course the battle lines that are being drawn here. I think the bottom line is you're damn close to a three way primary here with an incumbent senator in Cornyn who puts this thing away if he's a general election candidate. Cuz that's what he's done since 2002. But there's an awful lot of angst within the Republican Party and the MAGA side in particular that is interested in having somebody that adheres more closely to the President from an ideological standpoint. Inter Wesley Hunt and Ken Pack. How this whole thing plays out is interesting because ultimately there's a runoff system and you got a three way, really competitive primary, but if you don't breach that majority mark, it goes to a runoff and they take the top two. So you're not, you may have not one, but two potentially votes in this primary and who gets eliminated and the means by which they get eliminated make this a fascinating election in a lot of ways because I don't think there's any easy way to ballpark it.

[John Ashbrook]

So I may be a simple guy, right? But I have always felt like when Democrats have someone like I'll solve. So a perfect example of like you may have a lightly red to a purple state and if the Democrats win a senate race there, the person that becomes the senator is a left wing lunatic, like goes straight off the handle and that's in like a purple state. So if we have a red state like Texas, I want the senator there to be like a prepper who eats rattlesnakes, you know what I mean? Like I want them to be like so far to the right that he makes me nervous. Like this guy could be dangerous to everyone around him. That's how far right I want my candidates to be in red states, like a senator from Oklahoma, a senator from Florida, a senator from Texas. I want them to be so far right like they've got more prepper stuff than Duncan would ever have. Like that's how far right I want the candidate to be. And I feel like a lot of people think the same way when it comes to a Texas senators.

[Josh Holmes]

Well, quite obviously and I think you look at an Emerson poll that just came out with Paxton at 27, Cornyn at 26 and Hunt at 16. There's a whole bunch of different amalgamations of that same thing. But the bottom line is you're kind of looking at what appears to me to be a runoff in some ways. I've known John Cornyn since 2002. He is no liberal, I can assure you. I know there's plenty that MAGA types shoot at in terms of negotiations and things that he's had to be in as a part of Senate Republican leadership. He was a whip for a lot of different years. This guy's a pretty solid conservative. I mean he's not going anywhere on key votes. He's always with you on that stuff. And he's not Susan Collins. Right. I mean we talked about the benefit of having a main Susan Collins type. That's not what's happening with John Corn. The question is for Texas primary voters is whether or not you can get what you're talking about, which is the prepping that I want.

[John Ashbrook]

Suppress full auto machine guns legalized. That's what the Texas senator should be introducing.

[Smug]

And the one other thing about Texas with a runoff and having worked in Texas politics a little bit, the composition of the electorate in a runoff gonna be a lot different than primary day.

[Josh Holmes]

It is a lot different and a.

[Smug]

Lot of people don't realize this when they game out this situation. So if you're like somebody like an incumbent like Cornyn, you gotta be worried about a three way race where like you may not be able to clear that threshold on primary day because they end up in a runoff. The composition electorate changes. It's more people who like to prep. And what were you saying about the rattlesnakes?

[John Ashbrook]

Eats rattlesnakes a lot.

[Smug]

I want a lot people who are very, very conservative are going to show up in a random runoff that isn't a regular primary. The composition electorate entirely changes. It changes your calculus.

[Michael Duncan]

I think the fellows here on the ruthless variety program ate Rattlesnake. We do at the Iowa fairly Doug Bergam.

[Josh Holmes]

We dun and we have preppers amongst us.

[Michael Duncan]

We do. Buddy, you made a very astute point about the difference in the electorate on primary day and runoff day. I think we should also mention the Democrats have a primary of their own. James Talarico, lunatic upstart and Jasmine Crockett. So this is favorite of the program and we're all kind of hoping she makes it through that primary, but it's very tight. Rico may have a lead it's going.

[John Ashbrook]

To be an interesting primary. I'm not going to say it on there. I'm sorry. We'll wait. There's a lot of stories about Talrico and he's extremely litigant.

[Josh Holmes]

This is Pastor Onlyfans.

[John Ashbrook]

There's a lot of stories out there about this.

[Smug]

Allegedly.

[John Ashbrook]

Allegedly. There's a lot of stories out there. Feel free to Google it. He can't sue you for googling it. He's very litigious in his lawsuit. Like he will send them out left and right cuz he's trying to sue people from keeping this stuff from getting out. Feel free to Google it. There's a lot of stuff out there and I wouldn't put it past Jasmine Crockett to put it out there herself and end this. Dude.

[Josh Holmes]

Jazzy Jazz.

[Smug]

Yeah, yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

Smugs.

[Smug]

DMs are open if you're listening.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah, my DMs are always open. And it happens so much in Democrat primaries. Yeah, if you're operating on that, send it my way. Send it. My DMs are open for Dem operatives and they'll launder the shit out of it for you. Jasmine Crockett, if you're listening. Put it out there.

[Michael Duncan]

Put it out there in their.

[John Ashbrook]

It'll end him.

[Michael Duncan]

Their primary will not be inexpensive. The Republican primary not inexpensive. We talked about North Carolina maybe being the most expensive state on the map this cycle. I actually think it's going to be Texas because that state has so many media markets, so gigantic. And if you have a primary and a runoff and a Democrat primary, I mean, this state could be $750 million, most expensive Senate race in the history of our country.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, look, we're not in the business of litigating all the oppo that's being dropped on various Republican candidates. They can come in and drop it themselves if they want. There's been a concern about Ken Paxton and the number of things that have come up over the last few months in his capacity to win a general election. Even in Texas. Now, Jazzy Jazz, I think makes that a little bit easier in that she seems from all accounts to be totally unelectable in a place like Texas. But they're trying their hardest. And I'll just remind people in Alabama we elected Doug Jones a Democrat in Alabama just what, six straight six years ago? So it's not impossible. You got to keep an eye on all of that stuff. This is one we're going to follow very closely. They'll all. Come on. We'll talk to them all and you know, Wesley, we didn't talk about a lot. I think kind of a surprise to a lot of people that he got in, ruffled some feathers that he got in. But his administration ties have been extremely tight. And I think, look how this whole thing pans out. I'm still going to be a friend of Wesley Hunt no matter what. He's a great guy, but this is one of them that has a, from a financial allocation of how to keep your majority, perhaps profound, profound impact.

[John Ashbrook]

And again, Jasmine Crockett, if you're serious about winning it, just put those skeletons in his closet. I mean, it's a Google search. It's not just the quote unquote onlyfans stuff. It's next level past that. Jasmine, put those skeletons out and you'll win it.

[Josh Holmes]

Yep. All right. So when we come back, Dan Sullivan, a senator from Alaska, has got a challenger that we're going to have to look into a little bit and a lot more states right after this. Okay. So another state that pops up from time to time because it is a little difficult again to poll and difficult because it's not part of your lower 48 news cycle very often is Alaska incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan, who's a very good guy, a veteran, a very smart dude, but an understated guy. I mean, this is not somebody who's out banging his pots and pans on talk radio or Fox prime time or anything like that. Like he's, he does the job and so therefore makes it a little bit more vulnerable to flashbang, sort of jingly keys of a Democratic recruit. And so that's what's happening now in the entrance of the race by Representative Mary Peltola. So she has filed and that was the Democrats top recruit, Chuck Schumer's recruit for it. And actually a new poll that was put out by the dscc. So take it for what it's worth.

[John Ashbrook]

That's a Democrat Senate Congressional.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, yeah, take it for what it's worth. And then you know where the partisanship lies on that. But they have her winning 49, 47. I doubt that. But I do think it's competitive as all hell. And again, it's a difficult state from a lot of different capacities in order to have national recognition. But if you're talking about a Senate Republican majority, it could be decisive in a lot of ways.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah, it's a state that leans right, obviously very rural. There aren't a whole lot. I mean, it's not as expensive as some of these other states like Texas and North Carolina. That we. That we've talked about and what Republicans learned in 2022 campaigning against the Democrat who has announced as a candidate that if you spend a little bit of money against her, she can be defeated. There was a time when she was endorsed by Lisa Murkowski. Not the most favored person among conservatives or listeners of this show, but she's a very important figure in the state of Alaska. Lisa Murkowski has endorsed Dan Sullivan. That means we're a hell of a lot in that state. So don't overlook that. Don't overlook the 2022 race where this Democrat candidate came in third place after a little bit of money was spent against her. I like Dan Sullivan hanging onto this, but I do think it's going to take some resources.

[Smug]

Well, and back to Holmes's point about the polling, the polling here is all over the place all the time in Alaska.

[Michael Duncan]

Choice is hard to.

[Josh Holmes]

There's basically. It's funny in our world, in the consultant world, there's like Alaska specialists. Yeah.

[Smug]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

You know, you always see the same names attached to it and same pollsters and everything else.

[Michael Duncan]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

You kind of have done it. Yeah.

[Smug]

Well, because the public polling is dog. Like, I remember when Sullivan was running against Al Gross six years ago.

[Josh Holmes]

That's right.

[Smug]

That all of the public polling had them dead heat. Dead heat, dead heat. And then like, Dan Sullivan won by a walk. I think Al gross won like 41% of the vote.

[Josh Holmes]

Right.

[Smug]

You know what I mean? But like, you know, there's a lot of noise out there.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. And I talked to Sullivan's chief of staff a couple of weeks back. He wants to come on the program. So we'll get him out there and make sure that you all are introduced to him.

[John Ashbrook]

Can we go out to Alaska?

[Smug]

Bear rug. This could be a bear rug situation.

[John Ashbrook]

Have you just been to Alaska?

[Michael Duncan]

Never.

[Smug]

Dude.

[John Ashbrook]

It is wonderful. It is like paradise. There's so many parts of this country that are just like, mind blowingly beautiful. And Alaska is one of them. I'm talking about, like, if you're in Anchorage, if you're in Skagway, it is the stuff of dreams. And the people there are awesome.

[Michael Duncan]

Dude, I Wonderful folks.

[John Ashbrook]

I love that state so much. Beautiful place.

[Josh Holmes]

If we go, will you stay in an igloo?

[John Ashbrook]

Happily. You will love it. Dude. There's fishing out there. It is tremendous.

[Michael Duncan]

Dude, I want to go so bad. We need to go this year.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah, let's do it.

[Josh Holmes]

I love it. Okay. All right. So your home state of Ohio, this is a big one. People have thought in recent years, that it. And Florida, which used to, you know, back in 2000, 2004, and everything prior to that. Ohio and Florida were the two states that determined which way the country was going. And majorities and presidentials and everything else, both have gotten very, very red in recent years. But there are still an incredible number of competitive elections there, particularly when you have somewhat of an open seat, or at least people who have not run statewide before, such as our situation now with JD Vance ascending to the vice presidency. And all of a sudden you get John Husted, who's the new senator, who's doing a whale of a job.

[John Ashbrook]

Good guy, great guy to hang out.

[Josh Holmes]

With, doing a whale of a job, but he's got people lining up. And at this point, Sherrod Brown is somebody who, you know, could make things interesting.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah. Houston's been on a statewide ballot several times in different iterations, of course. He's filling out the remainder of the J.D. vance right now from a Mike DeWine appointment. Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, he's been elected statewide in Ohio many, many times.

[John Ashbrook]

And the guy's the rash that won't go away.

[Michael Duncan]

He is. He always votes further to the left of the state than anybody would understand. Yeah, I think. Or anybody would care to. Care to figure out. But he's. He works the state really hard. So this is going to be an incredibly competitive race for John Husted. I think John Husted is going to win this. And let me tell you why. Because the guy has worked around every single county for as long as I've been in this business. When I first started, I remember him, and he was really young. I mean, at the same time, you guys make fun of me because I'm old, but he was really young at the time, and the guy was working the state like crazy. And I think he's going to come out on top. I think the state is a. Is a red state, but it will be competitive. And you will see some shock polls where they say, oh, Sherrod Brown looks very, you know, looks like he's going to be able to pull this off. Well, Sherrod Brown has won statewide for a long time. His name idea is very hard, is very high. This is a competitive state. The one other factor for this Senate race that you got to pay attention to is a competitive governor's race between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton, who was the COVID czar in the state. State. Wow.

[Josh Holmes]

It's incredible to me that that is an actual competitive race.

[Michael Duncan]

It's a Competitive race. Because the state, while it is more red than it has been in the past, when you talk about it being the bellwether, so goes Ohio, so goes the nation. It still has Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati. It still has pockets of blue voters. And so the trick is, just like with every other state, you have to turn out those rural Trump voters if you want to win.

[Smug]

I think the real trick is the Ohio people being tricked by Sherrod Brown over and over.

[John Ashbrook]

Dude.

[Josh Holmes]

I mean, it's unbelievable to me.

[Smug]

Oh, gosh. He doesn't wear a blazer and he rolls up his sleeves. He must be a moderate, you know, and he's a lunatic.

[John Ashbrook]

It's like battered wife syndrome. These voters of Sherrod Brown, you know.

[Josh Holmes]

He lived in my building at 425 Mass. When I was a chief on the Hill and lived a couple of of blocks away from the Capitol. He was there. Like, he lived there. He didn't live in Ohio.

[Smug]

He got out. Do you think he still eats Skyline?

[Josh Holmes]

You know, I'm gonna pretend like a motherfucker that he likes the red food, dyed noodles, but the same as.

[Michael Duncan]

Same as Jon Ossoff. He's also raising a hell of a lot of money. Oh, yeah.

[John Ashbrook]

Well, one thing I'll say about John Husted is when we were at Senator Hagerty's event, we got to hang out with John Husted for a bit. This is like, yes. I remember this stage, just hanging out with him, and I tried to give him a hard time because whenever you have someone from Ohio, I'm like, my friend Ash Book tortures us with about how much Ohio is great. And I was like, is that, like, a problem with you people? And he gave the most sincere from the heart answer on how much he loves Ohio. And, I mean, it left an impression on me. If someone can say such wonderful things about Ohio, it's clear to me that he is someone who's been every corner of that state and holds it dear in his heart. He's the right guy for the job.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, no, I totally agree with that. But that is going to be one to watch. Don't write that thing off. Husted will come on, too. We'll talk to his people. We'll make sure that he's on here. Iowa. So you've heard from Ashley Hinson, longtime friend of the program. In fact, she was one of our tour guides in our initial Iowa State.

[John Ashbrook]

Fair time in Iowa.

[Josh Holmes]

First time we've been there a couple of times. She's been. I don't know how we would have made it around without Ashley Hinson. She is an extraordinary person, extraordinary family, an incredible representative of the state of Iowa. But this seat has become open because of the retirement of Joni Ernst, the incumbent senator. Anytime you have an incumbent retiring and it's an open seat, particularly in a place where Democrats have had some success over a period of time. You gotta keep an eye on these things. All that being said, I think she's gonna blow the doors off of whomever comes at her. I mean, this is it. You spend five minutes with Ashley Hinson and you're like, what do you need? You know what I mean? She's got one of those personalities who is both an advocate for her state, has a way of convincing you of her point of view, but it's just personable and real.

[John Ashbrook]

And also that state of Iowa you like to bring up. And this is an important point, it was not always a red state.

[Josh Holmes]

Yep.

[John Ashbrook]

It was until recently a blue state. And it took a tremendous to Iowa Republican Party, huge credit. They've built this great farm system where they cultivate, recruit great candidates, support candidates all the way up on their journey from being, you know, a city council person to state assemblies all the way up. They do tremendous candidate recruitment and they support the party and the GOTV operation. So you should never take Iowa for granted. I remember how much Democrats were trying to convince the media that, like, we can turn it blue. And then they do that so that they get more.

[Josh Holmes]

Oh, remember that?

[Smug]

The Seltzer shock poll.

[John Ashbrook]

Exactly. So they can try and get more.

[Josh Holmes]

13 down by 17.

[John Ashbrook]

They're gonna do whatever they can to get money in there and cause more problems.

[Josh Holmes]

Yep, 100%. She's gonna face off in a general against a state senator named Zach Walz. I hope this is the only time that I read his name.

[John Ashbrook]

Hopefully. Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

But if it's not, I'm gonna read a lot more about him and you're gonna hear a lot more about him here on the Ruthless Variety Program. Cause I can promise you this, she's not gonna lose that seat. And if it takes an awful lot of effort from all of us who are involved in this, she's the kind of person that you'll want in the United States Senate. And so I'm gonna put my back in on that one. I know all you guys will too. Louisiana is a complicated situation. You have heard Senator Bill Cassidy here on the program before. He's sort of a healthcare expert within the Senate Republican Conference. Hasn't always seen eye to eye with President Trump for obvious reasons. And ultimately, President Trump made an endorsement against an incumbent senator. Typically, that's not done. President Trump did not do that a single time in his first term. So this is a novel experience and we don't know exactly how it's going to work its way out. He endorsed a woman named Julia Letlow, who, of course, if you recall, she became a congresswoman. Her husband, who was elected to Congress, passed away in the COVID era. From COVID prior to taking a seat. Just an awful, terrible story. She's become a very, very talented representative. I understand the endorsement on that side, but it's gonna make for a very competitive primary environment. And they've got runoffs and things there too, where it's not as complicated as who's got got 40 versus who's got 38.

[Michael Duncan]

That's. And dude, there's also the statewide. The treasurer in Louisiana is also running and that guy's got a well capitalized campaign. So this is going to be extremely competitive down to that primary day in May, which is actually on a Saturday, May 16th.

[Josh Holmes]

Right.

[Michael Duncan]

You got to think that the turnout will be extremely low on a Saturday primary. So it's probably going to a runoff. I don't remember the date of the.

[Josh Holmes]

June 27th is a runoff there. And that's again, you were talking earlier, Duncan, about what the Texas electorate looks like from a primary date to a runoff date. And you're dealing with a fraction of the electorate that shows up at a presidential election. This is another one in particularly it might be more in Louisiana. And we've seen this play out over a number of years where you're dealing with a real finite number of voters that are coming out. And it's really hard to gauge ultimately who's on top. But it is look absolutely essential that you're not talking about Louisiana in November.

[John Ashbrook]

And the thing. So Louisiana, it's a wonderful state. I love Louisiana. Great time to be had. I love dining at Commander's palace in New Orleans. And so my endorsement is. My endorsement is open. Oh, I think everyone there should be fighting for it. You can bring me down. I think everybody there should be fighting for it. Get me a nice table at Commander's Palace.

[Josh Holmes]

We're not above that.

[John Ashbrook]

I'm not above it.

[Josh Holmes]

We can toss our endorsements.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

We can be bought.

[John Ashbrook]

You know, it's content too. Everyone wants to see me have a great time.

[Smug]

Bought for a beignet.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah, I know.

[John Ashbrook]

That's the funniest.

[Smug]

Hilarious bidding starts at a beignet.

[Michael Duncan]

Crawfish a too fast.

[Josh Holmes]

Oh, that's so good. All right, so that's going to be a big one then, I imagine. I hope we're going to hear from those candidates. We have not talked to the Letlo campaign. We will talked to the Cassidy, I think had emailed about a potential appearance. So you hear from all of them. And then what was the treasure?

[Smug]

Fleming.

[NetChoice Representative]

Seth Fleming.

[Smug]

Yeah, Fleming.

[Josh Holmes]

So, yeah, we'll try to get everybody for you, for those of you who are listening in Louisiana and for the new listeners.

[John Ashbrook]

This is what we do every election cycle, every primary. We bring every. We invite every candidate because it's up to you, the listener and the voters to decide.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

And we used to have a job where we had to care.

[John Ashbrook]

Now I don't have to worry. May the best man or woman win.

[Josh Holmes]

I better be charmed.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah, that's the thing. Commander's Palace. You know, the brunch is a tough ticket. They get the jazz band. It's wonderful. It's great. So you get me a ticket to that.

[Smug]

Whoever brings the most beignets.

[Josh Holmes]

My constituency used to be a whole bunch of powerful people who are counting on, like, sound decision making. Now my constituency is just you listening.

[John Ashbrook]

Content, whatever makes the listeners happy.

[Josh Holmes]

It's you listening.

[John Ashbrook]

That's what matters.

[Josh Holmes]

So that's what we're gonna provide. We're gonna provide you. And if you come in, you're stiff and you suck.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah. And if you don't, bring us down in New Orleans, you know, beignet.

[Michael Duncan]

Wait.

[Smug]

Now they're bringing us down there?

[Josh Holmes]

If I'm not wrestling an alligator with the boots by the end of it.

[Michael Duncan]

And if I'm flying scheduled.

[John Ashbrook]

That's the thing. I didn't want to have to be that clear about it, but come on, dude.

[Smug]

I'd actually love to see Smug on a fan boat in the bayou.

[Michael Duncan]

Oh, I'd be the best.

[John Ashbrook]

See, the people would love it.

[Josh Holmes]

With his rubber boot.

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah, everyone would love it.

[Josh Holmes]

All right, so the next one, Minnesota. Look, I don't have to tell all of you, boy, oh, boy, that over the last six weeks, this has become a very tumultuous situation. Literally, the heart of liberalism has descended upon Minnesota to try to make a deal out of not following the law. Whether it's defrauding you of $8 billion or trying to pretend as though people who come here illegally and rape. Rape people and murder people should be here to stay. And the federal government has no business escorting them out of the country. This is the place where they have fought. I grew up there. I can tell you the vast majority of Minnesotans do not agree with that point of view, despite the fact that the governor does, the attorney general does, the lieutenant governor does, the entirety of the Democratic leadership. Amy Klobuchar, don't pretend for a second that she's some moderate. They all believe it. Elon Omar, all of these people have literally put together a crime organization to pay themselves and their constituencies to remain in power and protect them against the law. That's what they've done. And I've heard from an awful lot of my friends and acquaintances in Minnesota that they think that this thing is boiling over, that there's a whole bunch of people who, through the for the first time, believe that what Democrats are up to could convince a number of people who are probably fiscally conservative, not socially conservative or not particularly, you know, into a bunch of stuff, are not real happy about being completely jacked on their tax dollars, not going to where they're going to go and being lied to and everything else. But the real problem the Republicans have had there, and I talked about this several weeks ago, yep. We've nominated fricking clowns statewide time and time again. They've got this weird endorsement process. I've been to one of them all the way back in 2002, which, by.

[John Ashbrook]

The way, what is that? Like, what is the situation? What is that?

[Smug]

It's a state convention, right?

[John Ashbrook]

Yeah.

[Smug]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

It's a Star wars bar.

[John Ashbrook]

Is it like, what is the Libertarian Party's presidential one where, like, there may be a guy who takes his clothes off and runs around?

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

I mean, people who are so detached from reality, they don't have a clue of what it would take to it. I'm speaking generally here.

[John Ashbrook]

There are a lot of bad state parties.

[Josh Holmes]

There are a lot of very, very committed Republicans who are involved in this. But there is an inordinately high number of people who have no idea what it takes to win an election because you haven't done it in 20 years.

[Michael Duncan]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

And so they keep putting up these people who are just have no prayer of winning. So they need a spark somewhere, the kind of spark that we had back in 2002 with Norm Coleman and Tim Polet that just sort of had this magnetism, this charisma. They'd actually done things. But they could go to a bar in a diner as easily as they could go up to the Iron Range and sit at the union hall. Right. I mean, these guys that could just relate to people statewide so critical in whatever walk of life that they were in. And that is what it takes, because it's a very. It's a state that's not any different from Wisconsin or North Dakota or Iowa in terms of what their ideology is, but they're probably a little bit more sensitive into whether you're an asshole or not. You hear, Minnesota, nice. They mean it. And as soon as you're not nice to them, they're fucking assholes. So if you come off like an asshole, you're just never gonna get a vote. That's just bottom line. You're just never gonna get a vote there.

[Smug]

Unless you're Somali. Then you get $5 billion.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. Well, you get $8 billion. $8 billion.

[Michael Duncan]

And that's how nice they are.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah. And all kinds of stuff like that.

[Smug]

Super nice.

[Josh Holmes]

But it needed a spark, and they got one.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

Michelle Tafoya, you all remember her sitting along NFL sidelines for a number of years as a sideline commentator. Incredibly well spoken, just became political during the COVID era. Has her own podcast and all these kinds of things where she's become more and more conservative as she's gotten a hard look at what it is that the Democratic Party is up to in her own backyard.

[John Ashbrook]

And it feels like, especially given what all has been uncovered over the past, let's say, month in Minnesota, it feels like a lot of attention is on how badly run that state has been and how much. It feels like all the elected Democrats were complicit and in on defrauding taxpayers.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[John Ashbrook]

From the top on down. From walls down to the mayor fry.

[Josh Holmes]

No, I mean, I think it's like all of them are complex. It's like a RICO case. I mean, this was deliberate, and I think people are onto that now. She's going to have primary competition here. There's a guy named Royce White who was a forward for the Minnesota Gophers, one of the best high school basketball players we ever had, transferred out and went to Iowa State. I think he spent lot of time a. A stint in the NBA. An interesting guy. But, like, I saw him last week as Tafoya was rolling her thing out, and, like, he's relitigating January 6th. And I don't care how you feel about that. If you want to win a state like Minnesota, you can't do it. They're done on that issue. That is a settled deal. You can make your arguments all you want. Ultimately, you're gonna need collar counties around Minneapolis to produce some serious votes. That third district that we talk about a lot is. It's a place like you need just, you need votes out of that, and they're not open for business on that. But more importantly, it's not relevant to your life whatsoever. These people just stole $8 billion from you. I mean, they're running a crime operation in your backyard, using your taxpayer dollars in order to protect themselves.

[John Ashbrook]

And that's the thing. It doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or a Republican. In Minnesota, you got ripped off. You got ripped off. So you need to elect someone who you feel is going to win and can get you that money and hold accountable the folks who stole it from you.

[Michael Duncan]

Yep.

[Josh Holmes]

And there's another guy named Adam Schwartz. I don't know him. I think they've reached out to us about having him on. I'd be anxious to get to know him. I don't know anything about him, but you'll hear from hopefully all. And I'll have Royce on too. I don't have any ill will. Again, he's a very fascinating, like background and everything else. I just, I think it's more than any state in terms of what we called like the renting the map deal. This is one that fundamentally makes Democrats ability to pick up the Senate anytime over the next decade almost impossible. If you lose Minnesota, if you're a Democrat, that's like losing Alabama for six years. If you are a Republican, they just count on it. They put it in the back pocket and they move on. So anyway, that's. That's a big one. So look, that's the early map. There are more states. Obviously there are more people running. And like Cotton, by the way, is completely hilarious. Tom Cotton, he like when he's in cycle who file against him because he's like 80% people love him. Like a homeless guy will file against him and he takes it as seriously as if he is being run against by Donald Trump. I mean, it is the funniest thing of all time. That's why he's so successful at what he does. And like, so I feel. I feel compelled. He's gonna like call me and be like, you didn't mention Arkansas, Tom. You'd be okay. You're gonna be okay. I promise you. You're gonna be okay.

[John Ashbrook]

But there's a number run like you aren't crush them well. And that's what I like is he runs super hard every time. Takes zero for granted. And he does his job like that too.

[Josh Holmes]

You know what else he does? I don't want.

[John Ashbrook]

Don't take Holmes advice and be lazy and not.

[Josh Holmes]

No, here was my point. What else he does is he does that as hard as he can. And then when things are sort of like settled out to where they are, where the guy running in the primary gets evicted from his shoebox that he lives in a, you know, sidewalk underpass.

[NetChoice Representative]

Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

He takes the money he's raised and he gives it out to all the candidates that we just talked about.

[Michael Duncan]

Worked in a lot of states.

[Josh Holmes]

Tom Cotton showed up team player. I mean, the guy, he's fantastic. So, anyway, what are your early predictions? Talk about the map as you see it. I think that's our question of the day. When you like and subscribe to the Ruthless Variety program, we read all of it and there's some races that we didn't cover here. We're going to cover everything. We got time. But we wanted to give you an early overview of all of that. Which states do Republicans need to win and why? When you like and subscribe, we read all your responses and get back to it in this case on Thursday. Coming up, got a great interview. Jeanine Pirro, right after this.

[Michael Duncan]

20 days, one historic move and an unbelievable journey. Melania from Amazon MGM Studios captures the one of a kind transition into the White House. Showcasing the planning, pressure and personal moments that come with stepping into the role of the first lady for a second time. From logistical complexities to decisions made behind closed doors, the film brings you closer to Mrs. Trump and her family as they return to the nation's capital. See what history looks like before the doors officially open. Melania arrives in theaters exclusively on January 30, 2026. 20 days, one historic move and an unbelievable journey. Melania from Amazon MGM Studios captures the one of a kind transition into the White House. Showcasing the planning, pressure and personal moments that come with stepping into the role of the first lady for a second time. From logistical complexities to decisions made behind closed doors, the film brings you closer to Mrs. Trump and her family as they return to the nation's capital. See what history looks like before the doors officially open. Melania arrives in theaters exclusively on January 30, 2026. I want to welcome to the Ruthless program a woman who needs no introduction, Judge Jeanine Pirro, the attorney for the District of Columbia. We're really happy you're on the job and we're happy you're here with us today.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Thank you. My pleasure.

[Michael Duncan]

I mean, you're six months in and you're already shaking things up. You're already making things happen. I don't think anybody who's familiar with your CV would be surprised about a Second of it. But I wonder if you could just talk about what it's been like over these last six months.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Well, it has been a very exciting six months. And one of the reasons that I took the job when the President offered it is because there's both the DA component of local crime as well as the federal crime. Look, D.C. had the fourth highest murder rate in the country. A couple there were crews and gangs running rampant here. This place was a mess. And so for me, it called back to my years and my roots as a prosecutor, judge and DA for over three decades. So I was thrilled to come here. We've made tremendous, you know, we've done a tremendous job so far. The President making DC See part of his Make DC Safe and Beautiful program by bringing in federal partners with the surge in August of 2025. Right now, homicides are down 60%, violent crime is down 30%, more than 30%. And we've got a prosecutor's office now that is prosecuting the crimes based on arrests that are made, whereas my predecessor in the Biden administration. Administration did not prosecute 60% of the arrests.

[Michael Duncan]

Unbelievable.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

So when you think about that, you realize that even if the police do the job, no one's being held accountable because the US Attorney wasn't prosecuting. We prosecute those cases now, and so we're very, very satisfied, but there's still more to do. But the President, by putting together this federal enhancement, by making sure that we have the resources in terms of law enforcement, has made the District safe and we will continue with that program.

[Michael Duncan]

Well, you know, our country is crawling with these prosecutors, state and local, who are from the George Soros wing of the Democratic Party. They've been installed by the left to let people out of their crimes, not have to serve any time for the crimes that they're committing. And I just wonder if the model that you have laid out here in D.C. is one that other federal prosecutors around the country are following.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Well, first of all, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to fight crime. You fight crime by doing investigations, making arrests and getting convictions. All right? And that's what all prosecutors should be doing across the country. But you know, we don't even need George soros prosecutors in D.C. because we've got the D.C. council that has passed laws that are absurd, whether it is as the Youth Rehabilitation act or the Incarceration Reduction Act. And by that I mean that we were able to convict an 18 year old who shot an individual, another person, on a public bus and shot him through the chest. But for the grace of God, he did not die. We got the case investigated, the police arrested, we investigate, we convict, we go to sentencing. The judge says, under the D.C. council, you3 Villa Take Act. I think that you should go to college.

[Josh Holmes]

That's it.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

That's it. He walked public place, loaded gun. I would have put him in jail for the gun alone. Forget shooting another individual. This isn't difficult stuff. But the great part about this job is that we also have our federal component as well, where we can deal with things like corruption. We can deal with some of the cases that are coming up this year. So, for example, the Pan Am Lockerbie case will be coming up in the summer.

[Michael Duncan]

It's crazy that it's just now coming up.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Yeah, 37 years ago, 1988. And the fuselage of the plane was just brought over from Lockerbie, Scotland.

[Michael Duncan]

Crazy.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

And we'll be trying that case, the Capitol murder case, where the two Israelis were killed outside the Capitol Museum. That case is in my arm office. The shooting of the National Guardsmen, one who died, Sarah and Andrew was still.

[Michael Duncan]

Alive one block from our studio.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Right. And that's my case as well. All of those Venezuelan ships that you heard about, where law enforcement boarded the ships, who do you think wrote the warrants for those ships? My office. My office has an incredible national security section that does work that people don't even know we're doing. We're fighting, targeting crypto, cybercrime, cryptocurrency now with all of these scam centers that are being created in Southeast Asia that where they're targeting Americans and Americans are suffering and falling for their scams. We're partnering, partnering with Meta and Microsoft and Google and Amazon to fight this old crime that's being committed in new ways with cryptocurrency. So there's of lot, a lot going on.

[Michael Duncan]

Well, the national security stuff is obviously a huge issue because we just watched in the last four years, so many under the Biden administration, so many people from the other hemisphere somehow conveniently find their way across our southern border. And so I know that you are working overtime to make sure that law enforcement, that you're partnering with law enforcement to make sure that when they find those people, you can. You can take care of business.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Well, yes, and that is. That's a real problem. I mean, I'm talking about the illegal criminals, okay? Whether they're criminals from their own country, whether they're wanted by their own country. And I've had cases like this, even when I was a da where they commit a murder in their own country and then come here and commit another murder here. I mean, there are so many names I could go through. We don't need to go through it. All we need to recognize is that if you come to this country and you're a leader, legal, and you commit a crime, you gotta go, you gotta go. We're not gonna support you. I'm tired of supporting you and providing this safety net for you where hardworking Americans are paying the taxes to pay for Medicare and all this stuff that's happening. I'm talking about the criminals here. It's gotta stop. And we're doing that in my office. We're doing all kinds of programs. I mean, that, that, that fight the good fight.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah. And you've demonstrated that nobody is above the law. You're investigating a very high profile figure. And I wonder if you could say anything about the Jay Powell investigation.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Well, you know, normally I wouldn't say anything, but Mr. Powell came out and, you know, he cried. He cried wolf and he said, oh, I'm being threatened, I'm going to be indicted. And, you know, all it required of him to do is to, you know, get on a phone call, we sent emails, we gave him a deadline, and when we sent subpoenas, he was like, oh, poor me, I'm a victim. This is horrible. As if something as simple as oversight should be turned into a political morality play where he is a victim. Nobody's above the law.

[Michael Duncan]

Right? No one and no one will ever accuse you of going soft. And I have one more question I really want to ask. I mean, you've seen the news, horrible news about the violence that's being perpetrated against our law enforcement, state and local federal law enforcement in this country. I wonder if that's something that you're keeping an eye. I'm sure it is something you're keeping an eye on, but I wonder if you have words of encouragement to law enforcement about how you're going to be out there and have their back.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Look, law enforcement should know that we have their backs. President Trump has their back. And anyone who takes a weapon, whether it's a gun or whether it's a knife or whether it's a vehicle, okay? And you aim that at law enforcement. You have to expect that law enforcement is going to respond in a way where they're defending themselves. All right? All this namby pamby, leftist stuff is they're playing in the wrong lane. You take a vehicle, you go after a, a cop, and you try to run that cop over or you injure him in any way, that cop is going to defend himself or herself. That's the way the system is.

[Michael Duncan]

Well, thank you so much for spending some time with us today. Very lucky to have you. Yeah, great to meet you.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Thank you.

[Michael Duncan]

Thanks for the work.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Stay tuned. Lot going on.

[Michael Duncan]

Thank you.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Take care.

[Michael Duncan]

Fellas. What a treat. I mean, I've never met anyone with more energy than her. And she had so many stories that she was telling me off camera. She said she would come in and sit down with us. She would love to do. And I cannot wait because everything that she's doing, the story is she's got Everybody working till 10pm Trying to stop these criminals in D.C. and it. It's working. I don't know if you guys clearly stories about how murder rate is down, crime rate is down. She's having an impact.

[Josh Holmes]

We talked to a group at the bar the other night of like, these longtime D.C. lawyers who have connections into all of the, you know, the prosecutorial offices and all this stuff. And they were saying basically that she's improved morale so significantly as she's been in office because she's given them a reason to do stuff. Recall the big scandal in D.C. was that they would have a shooting and then they would refer to the prosecutor. The prosecutor would be like, oh, yeah, well, looks like a domestic disturbance to me. Moving on. They never did anything.

[John Ashbrook]

That is a story of how in D.C. essentially, they legalized crime. So they could say, oh, yeah, you see the crime rate drop because we turned every felony murder into like a misdemeanor. They show up on scenery and they're.

[Smug]

Like, this is a murder. And then it goes to the next guy and it's like, well, this was an assault. And then it gets to the prosecutor and it's like, well, this is littering.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, yeah. They're like, ah, slap, slap. Here's a ticket.

[John Ashbrook]

The dead body fell on the ground. That's littering. $35 in community service.

[Michael Duncan]

It's true.

[Josh Holmes]

Anyway. People are, like, psyched up about the fact that they're actually doing something to clean up their home.

[Smug]

It's almost like that's why they got in that job in the first place.

[Josh Holmes]

It's almost like there's people who, like, want to do thing for a living. When you give them the opportunity, it's amazing. All right, so we want to get to two other quick states before we get out of here. One is New Hampshire. Big pickup opportunity. Former Senator John Sununu has entered the race. A very big recruit from My point of view.

[Michael Duncan]

And another former senator, Scott Brown, is running against him in the primary.

[John Ashbrook]

There's two former senators.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah.

[Judge Jeanine Pirro]

Wow.

[Josh Holmes]

Head to head.

[Michael Duncan]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

And this is the state that has always been tied in as a tick. I mean, no matter if you have a good cycle or a bad cycle, it's always tight as a tick. And of course, it's an open seat at this point.

[Michael Duncan]

I don't know.

[John Ashbrook]

I mean, like, what are you hearing out there? Because it's a very, like, mavericky state. Right?

[Michael Duncan]

It is a mavericky state and it doesn't have a ton of media markets. But the reality is it's a state Republicans have won before, and it's a state that Democrats will have to spend extensively if they want to defend it. And if you've got somebody who used to serve in the Senate who is on the ballot for Republicans in a cycle where they are carrying a message for that state, they can win. And Democrats, I think, should be on guard. And I think they are. I think Democrats are on guard in that state. Yeah.

[Josh Holmes]

I mean, the secret about.

[Michael Duncan]

It's a tough race.

[John Ashbrook]

The secret to an open seat. You're saying it.

[Michael Duncan]

Yeah. Yeah. This is Jean Shaheen's seat. She's retiring.

[Josh Holmes]

Yes. I mean, the secret to the Senate mask is that when you're in leadership and all the power of the super PAC of Senate majorities on both sides, the first dollar spent is always to defend a state that you currently have. It's important not only because you don't want to lose anything that you already have, but also there's an internal dynamic, particularly if that incumbent, if it's not an open seat. If you have an incumbent, you have to spend because you need their vote. It's very important to them that you're committed to their seat in one way or another. Like if you need somebody on something and you're there financially, it. It's like an easier vote to get.

[Smug]

But being committed to that seat, you know, if you're. Chuck Schumer's an expensive exact position.

[Josh Holmes]

Because that's why this is such a big one.

[Smug]

Because if you put somebody serious up there in a general election, they gotta buy the Boston media market to be on telepath. Do you know how expensive that is?

[John Ashbrook]

A good, good point. You think that gives Scott Brown an edge because he's won in Massachusetts?

[Smug]

Well, I mean, you're talking about a Sununu on the other side. I mean, like, this is the name. ID is not a problem here.

[Josh Holmes]

No, you're talking about basically 10. 10 of 10 on both.

[John Ashbrook]

That's insane.

[Josh Holmes]

So it's going to be interesting how it all plays out. But I guess my point in all of that is that they're going to have to spend so much money trying to defend that any dollar that they spend there, they're not going to be able to spend in North Carolina or in, you know, Texas or you know, wherever they think that the pick up opportunity. You hear Chuck Schumer and he's like, oh yeah, we're going to do Nebraska and we're going to do all these other things. It's like, well you're probably not. If we can run competitive races in all these places and the candidates that we've got, it feels like it's inevitable in New Hampshire that this thing is going to be a tight race.

[Michael Duncan]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

So that's a big one. The other one's Kentucky and look tough because we have friends all over the place. Spent an ordinary amount of time in Kentucky, got to know the three candidates that are involved extremely well, I mean honestly like family. Nate Morris is the outsider candidate. Just got that Elon Musk $10 million infusion which is going to help out an awful lot because of the polling. It's him sort of in a single percentage versus two well established Kentucky sort of icons, both young in Andy Barr and Daniel Cameron. Daniel Cameron, you remember him from the 2020 Republican National Convention keynote speech for Donald Trump. He was a young African American attorney general, incredibly gifted from a political standpoint. He's got a substantial lead there in large part because he ran for governor just a few years ago, lost to Andy Beshear, but in the process of that had a huge name ID advantage that at this point in an early, early race has given him a ballot lead in that race. Andy Barr is a sitting congressman in a district that represents Lexington, you think University of Kentucky in the middle, but it also stretches out east into a critically important part of Kentucky in terms of those Republican primary voters. He's just a world class guy. You've heard him on here.

[John Ashbrook]

We talking about the hollers out east. Is that where he is?

[Smug]

No, not that, not that far.

[Josh Holmes]

It's not quite the Hal Rogers, not like the. Yeah, but it goes down to Somerset. Like it's close to the. Anyway, but he's got a base of support there. And Cameron from Louisville, huge vote rich area statewide name id. He's got a, a thing there. A challenge for somebody like Nate Morris is to try to figure out how to split the sort of disenchanted Republican Whether they're east or west, where he's got basically no name ID whatsoever or up north. What's complicated about this in Kentucky is you got Thomas Massie up there who is like target A1A of President Trump. I mean, he's made it very clear and put money in from the MAGA pack to try to defeat this guy in a primary. And that is an area, honestly, if you're looking at the map from a Nate Morris perspective, he has to win it.

[Smug]

Well, especially because you got Andy Barr who's going to have, you know that Lexington DMA as like a home base of operation of name id. Yeah. And then you've got Daniel Cameron who's going to have more of the Louisville name id. So like he needs like a place like you're talking about like Covington or something that, you know, it's a more libertarian, outsider strain of the Republican Party. He's got to run up the score there if he hopes to offset those natural advantages.

[Josh Holmes]

And the President is going to play a huge role here. What's interesting, I'm not sure if you can expect an endorsement on this one or not. You talk to people close to him and I don't know that that's like an area where they think that they're going to. You got Amy McGrath, remember her from, from 2020 in her run against McConnell, who's back in the race.

[John Ashbrook]

She's running for Senate again.

[Josh Holmes]

Oh, yeah, she's back in it. And so I don't think there's a.

[John Ashbrook]

Lot she's got a chance. Democrats, you have to send her money.

[Smug]

Send her $200 million.

[John Ashbrook]

If she had $3 billion, I think she'd have a shot. Every Democrat, send all your money.

[Josh Holmes]

The funny thing is I can only imagine her campaign. She was like, yeah, we raised 110 million. We can do this again. They get in and they realize they're not running against Mitch McConnell and they have like 40 bucks in the bank account.

[Smug]

Right.

[Josh Holmes]

I mean, it's like you weren't the.

[John Ashbrook]

Thing Democrats in North Carolina sent her money to. Amy. She can do it this time.

[Josh Holmes]

Yeah, she can do it. No problem. Do it, go ahead, spend it all there. So. But anyway, this thing breaks down in sort of an interesting race at this point. It's like kind of a two man. But Morris, with that 10 million, you got to imagine his name ID is going to come back up. It's probably a three man race in a lot of different ways. Ultimately, am I nervous that we're going to lose that? I mean, under the right circumstances. I mean, they have a sitting Democratic governor in Andy Beshear. Under the right circumstances for Democrats, it could become problematic for Republicans. But I think I feel relatively confident that that's in the category of around.

[John Ashbrook]

When is the primary date for that?

[Michael Duncan]

May 19th.

[John Ashbrook]

May 19th. So also in May is the Kentucky Derby. And I, unlike Holmes, don't have how.

[Josh Holmes]

Many selling is endorsement.

[John Ashbrook]

No, I don't have friends in Kentucky who've been willing to help me at all or care about me.

[Smug]

Dude.

[John Ashbrook]

My mother's always wanted to go to the Kentucky dirt and I love my mother dearly. And so I think what would be helpful is, you know, if I could get a friend in Kentucky who could take me and my mother to the Kentucky Derby and give us the star treatment that she deserves because she's been the most wonderful person.

[Michael Duncan]

Your mom's gonna need a helicopter to land on the.

[John Ashbrook]

That's the thing on the paddock area because there's so much traffic on the.

[Josh Holmes]

Paddock, you know, on the paddock. And maybe you ride in the race.

[John Ashbrook]

And we have three gentlemen who are well respected and well funded and. And I just want a friend because, I mean, he's got his friends in Kentucky and I don't. No one's cared about me. You could and I'd be happy to help.

[Josh Holmes]

Best part about all of this is it's all a derivation of Jeff Yass if you're listening, or the Bear Rug if you're listening. I could have different thoughts about all of this.

[John Ashbrook]

I mean, there's a Bourbon Trail. We could shoot content out there. We just need a friend out there. Cause his friends don't help me.

[Josh Holmes]

It is a dude. Look, look, this is a tough thing about being in this line of work. Not having a friend in Kentucky that.

[John Ashbrook]

Can help you out.

[Josh Holmes]

A vested interest in these things other than trying to get you all the information as a listener in that these people are our friends. You know, I've known these guys for 10 plus years. We'll see how it works out. I think it's gonna be a fascinating early spring in terms of how that one rounds itself out. A lot more attention, obviously. So that leads us to our question of the day. Just a reminder. What are your early predictions? Republicans hold the United States Senate. Which states matter? Which will we win? Which will could we lose? What do you think the ultimate breakdown is? When you like and subscribe to the Ruthless Friday program, we read all of your answers. It'll help inform us about what's going on in your neck. Of the woods. And we'll get back to you the very next episode.

[Michael Duncan]

Great guy.

[Josh Holmes]

Great episode, fellas. And we're gonna see you Thursday. I think we did it.

[John Ashbrook]

I think so. Absolute banger of an episode. Gentlemen, thank you so much. Judge Dean Pierrot, and thank you to the listeners. Remember, if you have not yet, go to the YouTube and hit that subscribe because it's more fun in video. So until next time, minions, keep the faith, hold the line, and own the lids. We'll see you on Thursday. Stay ruthless.

[Michael Duncan]

Sam.