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Welcome to S2 Underground, a freelance intelligence agency that brings real time intelligence reporting to the frontline fight against terrorism, fake news, and political tyranny around the world.
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The Wire - August 5, 2026
1w ago00:06:53Tap to summarize//The Wire//2300Z August 5, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ALLEGED DRONE ATTACK REPORTED TARGETING UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT AT GERMAN AIRPORT. MERCHANT SUNK IN THE SOUTHERN RED SEA IN DRONE BOAT ATTACK. MAN ARRESTED IN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S VISIT TO GOLF CLUB YESTERDAY.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Red Sea/HOA: This morning one merchant vessel reported being struck by an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) near the Bab el Mandeb Strait. The UKMTO reported the vessel as being sunk during the attack. The incident occurred so quickly that the UKMTO was not notified during the attack, and the ship sank almost immediately after the incident.Analyst Comment: If the Houthis are now using USVs during this phase of operations, this war just got a lot more serious. The Houthis have demonstrated this capability in the past (such as the war with the United States last year), but have refrained from using this tactic so far during this campaign. Sinking a vessel using a USV is a new step toward closing the Bab el Mandeb, and the response from insurance companies will be an indicator to monitor, as this chokepoint becomes a warzone once again.Germany: This morning a series of possible explosive drone attacks was reported at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Just before midnight, one quadcopter-type drone was observed operating over the airport, prompting drone procedures to be enacted and aircraft grounded. During this response, a search of the airport resulted in the discovery of a second quadcopter lying on the tarmac near a Ukrainian cargo plane. This drone appeared to contain an explosive charge, though no contact detonation apparatus was visible in the provided photos of this device. After this incident was concluded and flight operations resumed, a DHL cargo aircraft collided with a third drone (of unknown type) upon takeoff from this airport, which resulted in the aircraft declaring an emergency and diverting to another airport due to the damage to the airframe.-HomeFront-USA: Around the nation cyberattacks on critical infrastructure continue. Over the past few days, water utilities in a total of 12x states have been affected by malign actors since last month. After the large-scale cyberattacks which resulted in dozens of water districts being locked out of their systems in Minnesota, many more states have reported similar incidents. Georgia is the latest state affected by cyberattacks, and this afternoon New Jersey also reported two water districts being targeted, both of which had to cut access to unspecified computer systems and switch to operating manually.Analyst Comment: As with most infrastructure attacks, these incidents are usually not immediately disclosed to the public unless the public would find out about it anyway, so the timing of all of these cyberattacks is not really known. The Minnesota attacks last week were publicized immediately due to the immediate impact to the public, and now that more eyes are on the issue (and various federal agencies have issued warnings of more attacks), more lower-level municipalities are disclosing that they had similar breaches over the past two weeks.As far as the malign actors behind these cyberattacks, it could be anyone. It does not take a nationstate level actor to breach a system that was using the default passwords or wasn't secured properly in the first place, but the targeting of a nation's water supply indicates the motive is probably in the military realm. No ransomware or demands have been noted, and no hacking group has claimed credit yet. These attacks were meant to directly take services offline, ruling out financial motives for the time being.California: Yesterday the DoJ announced the arrest of an individual tied to a possible security breach at the Trump National Golf Club in Los Angeles. The press release states that Jeanine John Taele was observed conducting surveillance by the initial Secret Service advance team that was sent to the Golf Club ahead of President Trump's visit. Taele was observed wearing an earpiece and taking photos of the security practices at the club, which drew the eye of the USSS. The suspect departed the facility and transited to his home, where he was apprehended by the Secret Service. During a search of his belongings agents found a few firearms, a pair of binoculars, and a generic badge used by security guards. Additionally, authorities discovered several notebooks containing "concerning statements" at his residence.Analyst Comment: The press release left enough ambiguity to make it difficult to determine what actually happened here: This could be extremely serious, or just some idiot who got too curious. The mention of the earpiece is an important detail, because depending on what that earpiece was, this could be a big deal. The way the release is written, this could easily have been a bluetooth headset as is customarily displayed by those who prefer the rather garish utilitarianism of wearing at all times. Or, this could have been a more substantial security threat that expands beyond just one person. If this individual was acting suspiciously, taking photos of security equipment, speaking into a "radio signal device" with an earpiece, and had vaguely described manifesto-esque notebooks at his residence...this was probably way more serious than just some guy walking around.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: The drone incident in Germany will be heavily scrutinized as this is a major escalation which can be interpreted in many different ways. First off all, it must be noted that the one extremely blurry photo of one drone may or may not actually show an explosive charge. What looks like an explosive charge could also be the battery pack, it's hard to tell based on the photo. If there were explosives onboard, it would have been a very small charge and not the flying artillery shells that have become common during the war.At the wavetop level, it is hard to believe that a nation-state level actor which has undeniably mastered the art of conducting attacks with sUAS platforms in war...would fail. If Russia was behind this attack, and really intended to target Ukrainian aircraft on the ground in Germany, a 100% failure rate using multiple explosive drones is extraordinarily unlikely. As a result, it's possible that this was either a false-flag attack intended to blame Russia, or it was Russia sending a message to NATO. Conducting a drone attack, but deliberately leaving the detonator disconnected so that the debris is found and forensic analysis of the explosives leads to a Russian factory, would be a classic Russian message...that's their style perfectly. This is the Kremlin's version of "per my last email", and proves two very serious ideas: NATO's aircraft are vulnerable on their home turf, and Russia already has clandestine forces located near NATO airports poised and waiting to eliminate NATO aircraft before they ever get off the ground. That message is more valuable than taking out one Ukrainian transport plane.However, this whole saga could also be the Ukrainians trying to expand the war, continuing the trend that has been expanding for some time. Since the very start, Zelenskyy has been trying to draw the whole world into their war, and has conducted attacks involving other European nations (such as Monaco and Turkey), which have served as an attempt to bring other nations in to the war to fight the Russians for them. From the Ukrainian perspective this makes sense, and every nation on earth fighting such a nasty war would also use trickery in a similar manner. But for the DHL pilots who almost died and other collateral damage over the years, this is hardly reassuring.The truth will probably be indirectly told in the mainstream media, by what rhetoric is being pushed. If this incident is downplayed and memory-holed, it probably was the Russians. If the mainstream media sources in NATO countries start an information campaign to spin this in their favor, the chances of this being a fake attack go up. For everyone who does not have the ability to forensically analyze the devices themselves, the true culprit might never be known. All the while the new Cold War becomes increasingly more hot, every single day.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
Transcribe →The Wire - August 4, 2026
1w ago00:03:26Tap to summarize//The Wire//2300Z August 4, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: IRANIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE IN KUWAIT AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TURKISH MERCHANTS STRUCK BY UKRAINIAN DRONES IN BLACK SEA. WILDFIRE RESPONSE CONTINUES IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS ARSON REMAINS A CONCERN.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: This morning Iranian attacks continued in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting more vessels which have attempted to transit via the unauthorized southern route. Around the region, Iranian forces targeted American installations in Kuwait overnight, with locals reporting large fires allegedly in the vicinity of Camp Buehring. Analyst Comment: This is the first round of strikes that was not explicitly tied to the tit-for-tat American strikes, and this is one of the few times the Iranians have launched an attack during this war, that was not purely retaliatory. This is the latest indicator that the Iranians are becoming increasingly less likely to allow the United States to conduct strikes, and then let the markets cool off by the time the opening bell rings. Conducting strikes on their own terms and timing, is likely a tactic Iran will continue to exercise while the United States tries to buy more time to figure out how to win the war.Europe: The war in Ukraine has remained hot on multiple fronts as attacks on merchant shipping in the Black Sea continue to involve more third-party nations. This morning, Ukrainian drones targeted the M/V NADEZHDA (IMO: 7702657) just off the coast of Novorossiysk. This vessel is a Roll-on, Roll-Off (RoRo) vehicle transportation vessel, and was owned and operated by Turkey, with a mostly Turkish crew. In addition to this strike, another vessel was also struck in the same general area. The M/V YASAR (IMO: 9276341), a smaller regional containership was struck at roughly the same time as the NADEZHDA. Both vessels had recently departed port Novorossiysk before being struck.Analyst Comment: So far, Turkish authorities have played their hand very carefully, and there haven't been any public statements indicating how serious they are treating these strikes. The Turks have called on both Ukraine and Russia to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, which is exactly the kind of milquetoast statement that would be expected for a NATO member which also buys a lot of Russian military hardware. Nevertheless, this duality of defense is only going to last for so long, especially if this war expands to include the deaths of Turkish civilians onboard Turkish civilian ships.-HomeFront-Pacific Northwest: Wildfire concerns remain paramount as disaster recovery efforts continue in Washington state. Spokane is the biggest urban interface affected by the wildfires, and many suburbs and surrounding towns have burned completely to the ground. The National Interagency Fire Center status report for this morning stated that the three main wildfires burning in the Spokane area are still zero-percent contained, though major gains were made in combatting two of the fires threatening local homes in the suburbs. So far, most of the firefighting efforts have prioritized immediate risk to life within the residential areas of the city, in addition to aiding evacuation efforts for much of the population.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: In eastern Washington, weather is going to play a factor over the next few days and the region at large is not out of the woods just yet. The National Weather Service Fire weather update from this morning indicated light and variable winds forecasted for tonight, increasing tomorrow. Temperatures today were a bit cooler, but temps are expected to rise (and humidity expected to drop) ever further tomorrow, as winds begin to rise. This afternoon's weather forecast continued to indicate increasing winds of over 20mph are likely throughout central and eastern Washington on Friday and Saturday. As a result, fire behavior conditions can change quickly, and increased situational awareness is vital while the crisis continues. This is especially important considering the origin of the fires. At least one arrest has been made due to at least some of these fires being arson, and the risk of continued malign action is likely while these weather patterns continue.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
Transcribe →The Wire - August 3, 2026
1w ago00:03:53Tap to summarize//The Wire//2300Z August 3, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MASS SHOOTING CONDUCTED IN IDAHO, PREPARED CITIZEN RETURNS FIRE DURING SMALL ARMS ENGAGEMENT. PRESIDENT TRUMP CALLS OFF WEEKEND STRIKES IN IRAN. WILDFIRES DEVASTATE URBAN AREAS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: On Saturday, President Trump stated that the weekend strikes had been called off. Throughout the region the status quo remains, and no major targeting efforts were conducted since last week, with the exception of Iran continuing to strike merchant vessels which try to transit the Strait of Hormuz using the unauthorized southern route.-HomeFront-Idaho: On Saturday, an active shooter incident was reported at an In-N-Out restaurant in Twin Falls. At approximately 2:30pm local time, one gunman approached the structure and began shooting at the patrons inside. During the attack, an armed and prepared citizen responded to the shooting and began engaging the shooter. This action prompted the shooter to break off the attack, and take his own life, ending the incident. During the fray, an off duty police officer at the venue also responded to the shooting, and was seriously wounded by a gunshot wound to the arm.Concerning casualties, a total of 3x people were killed during the attack, at least one of which was an employee of the restaurant. Approximately 7x others were wounded, some of which remain in critical condition. The suspect has been identified as Chad Williams, and no information has been released regarding the motive for the attack.Analyst Comment: Based on the videos that have come to light during the shooting, the attacker was very likely not expecting any opposition to arrive for some time, and was likely caught off guard by at least one, possibly two people shooting at him immediately after his attack began. Though this shooting will be scrutinized over the next few weeks, the immediate lesson learned is that both violence of action and some level of training are the most important factors for turning the tide during an active shooter incident.Washington: Over the weekend, wildfires have spread throughout the Pacific Northwest, with an exceptionally dangerous series of fires affecting Spokane. Fire damage has spread to the urban areas at the northwestern side of town, and upwards of 65,000 people remain affected or displaced by the devastation statewide.Analyst Comment: In wildland fire management, one of the most dangerous fire situations are fires that occur at the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). These are fires which occur on the outskirts of towns, where jurisdictions meet and interagency coordination is more difficult due to varying tactics being used in fighting the fire. In this case, the fires spreading to the urban environment very quickly resulted in the loss of approximately 700 structures in Spokane County.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Though the chances of this theory being correct are slim, there is another possible explanation for the weekend shenanigans in the Middle East, that does not lie in the realm of stock market manipulation or insider trading. It is possible that the long buildup to weekend strikes on the rhetoric front (but not really in terms of staging a lot of aircraft) was intended to make someone or something move.Speaking operationally, the Iranians have been buttoned up for some time now, as they are fighting a defensive war on their home turf. Most Iranian leadership, even down the chain to mid-level management positions, are all expecting decapitation strikes, the targeting of headquarters positions, and other secret bunker complexes and safehouses that are used for command and control. When an adversary is dug-in so substantially, sometimes it's beneficial to "shake the tree", as in, to do something to get the dug-in adversary to either move or communicate with others. If this was the goal, it probably worked and resulted in some intelligence benefit. The Iranians viewed the strikes as imminent, to the point that cities were being evacuated, leave was canceled for ground troops, and key leaders had moved to their more substantial bunker complexes. Movement which the watchful eye of American intelligence agencies could see.Of course, if this theory bears any weight, the overall reasoning for why this took place is still fairly dumb. Normally, these types of information operations are useless unless they are capitalized on immediately, as stale intelligence does not really help the overall strategic situation. What's astronomically more likely than some sort of intelligence collection potential is simply the financial incentives to keep playing financial markets, and hoping that the "we're bombing them"/"they called and want to make a deal" cycle continues to be a viable option for both insider trading, but also to string the war along and buy time for a solution to hopefully materialize.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
Transcribe →Intel Update - August 1 - ChokePoint
1w ago00:20:19Tap to summarizeResearch Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - The HomeFront 04:39 - Middle East 07:56 - Spain 12:32 - Chokepoints 19:08 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Odysee: https://odysee.com/@S2Underground:7 Gab: https://gab.com/S2underground Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA
Transcribe →The Wire - July 31, 2026
2w ago00:03:29Tap to summarize//The Wire//2100Z July 31, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GIBRALTAR CRISIS CONTINUES AS 60,000 MIGRANTS FLOOD INTO SPAIN. ITALY TO SUSPEND SCHENGEN AGREEMENT WITH SPAIN DUE TO MIGRANT CRISIS. IRAN CONTINUES TARGETING KUWAIT AS UNITED STATES CONSOLIDATES POSITIONS IN MIDDLE EAST AMID IRANIAN TARGETING EFFORTS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Spain: The situation regarding the migrant wave has continued to deteriorate sharply. After the perimeter fence was breached yesterday, the sheer waves of people crossing the border have devastated the enclave of Ceuta. Spanish authorities estimate that over 60,000 people have crossed the border since the perimeter breach last night, and most residents of the peninsula have been barricading themselves inside their homes as the sheer number of people in this small town is staggering. Home invasions and forced-squatting instances have been reported all around the peninsula, along with mass looting and destruction taking place. Throughout this morning, many migrants have also been observed crossing back into Morocco, after realizing that the small peninsula cannot sustain this many people, as water and food sources have been expended throughout much of the city.Analyst Comment: Additionally, videos surfaced overnight confirming that this effort is not entirely organic. Truckloads of migrants are deliberately being driven to the border fence and released into Spain with the active participation of the Moroccan government. Moroccan border guards have also been observed opening the fence from their side as well, allowing large crowds through gates separating the peninsula from the mainland.Europe: This morning, the Italian government has suspended their Schengen Agreement with Spain, cutting off free travel between the two nations. The Interior Minister for Finland also voiced support for Italy's decision, urging other EU member states to likewise close their borders with Spain.Analyst Comment: Spain losing visa-free access to Italy is a big deal, as Italy one of the largest economies in Europe and cross-border trade between Spain and Italy amounts to roughly €70 billion per year. The Schengen agreement does specifically allow for the temporary halting of the pact as a measure of last resort, which Italy has enacted. If more nations follow suit, Spain could be in quite a tough spot that will probably result in a complication of trade in the short term. -----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the war remains much the same as before, with most strikes targeting American bases in Kuwait. No strikes have been reported in Jordan yet today, but satellite imagery is still pending coverage since the strikes on al Salti a few days ago. The United States has reportedly turned around a few vessels in the Gulf of Oman, which if true, confirms that the American blockade is still in effect to some degree. Similarly, Iranian sources claim to have struck two more tankers somewhere in the Gulf or Strait of Hormuz, but the UKMTO has not confirmed this yet (which they might not do, as they also underreported successful strikes a few weeks ago). In Iraq, Arab news sources are reporting that the drawdown of the American presence in Erbil is nearly complete, and that all missile defenses have been withdrawn from this installation and relocated elsewhere. Though the scale of the American withdrawal in Iraq is not exactly being openly advertised, moving the remains of that Patriot battery are a big clue that the U.S. is looking to cede Iraq to Iran's sphere of influence. The Erbil airport was the last official American position in the nation (aside from the Embassy in Baghdad), so if the US has departed this base, this would be the first time in 23 years the US has not had a conventional military presence in Iraq. Now, the closest positions to Iran (from the western side), are in Kuwait. This is probably why Iranian strikes continue to focus on Kuwait, and the American bases within. This is not just intended to reduce the potential for more American ATACMS missile launches from the border region, but also to keep pressure on the United States, preventing the staging of aircraft at the handful of airbases in Kuwait.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
Transcribe →The Wire - July 30, 2026
2w ago00:05:09Tap to summarize//The Wire//2100Z July 30, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES CONDUCTS RETALIATORY STRIKES WITHIN IRAN. CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK CONTINUES IN UNITED STATES. MIGRATION WAVE HITS SPAIN AFTER SUPREME COURT RULING RESULTS IN BORDER CROSSING BREACH.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: American strikes on Iran continued overnight, with most of the targets being struck in the same coastal regions of Iran that have been targeted since the ceasefire was broken. Iran has claimed to have struck several aircraft on the ground at Muwaffaq al Salti in Jordan, along with other targets around the region which will take some time to verify.On the American side, one new series of targets struck by the United States was reported in the border town of Abadan, which is geographically located right on the Iraqi border, a short distance from Bubiyan Island where American HIMARs launchers have been observed conducting ATACMS strikes within Iran.Spain: An emergency situation has been declared after thousands of migrants swarmed the small enclave of Ceuta on the south side of the Strait of Gibraltar. Several thousand migrants breached the border perimeter that separates the Spanish peninsular city of Ceuta, from mainland Morocco. After it became clear to the crowds that there were very few border guards, the fencing was breached by land, and small boats launched by sea to land on the beaches, circumventing the fencing.Immediately after the migrant waves arrived this morning, the city has been in a state of sheer bedlam. Riots have been reported throughout the peninsula and property owners have reported being swarmed with break ins, as the border itself has completely collapsed.Analyst Comment: The reason for the fray is due to a recent court ruling which has intensified illegal immigration efforts. This week, Spain's Supreme Court re-affirmed that their borders are open, and that migrants who are apprehended trying to cross over to this peninsula cannot be deported. Last month, Spain's amnesty program officially closed, but because it's very hard to prove an entry date for someone who crossed the border illegally, the boats are being launched like never before, which resulted in today's intensification once the fence was breached.-HomeFront-USA: Around the nation the outbreak of cyclospora has continued to remain a concern as the exact point of origin for the parasite remains largely unknown. Over the past few weeks, the infection has continued to spread around the nation, and now a total of 45x states are reporting citizens falling ill. The largest outbreak cluster remains in Michigan and Ohio, and most of the other states affected are located in the midwest, the northeast, and southeastern regions of the nation.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: The war in the Middle East has reached a level of complexity that makes direct strikes and targeting efforts way more impactful than they otherwise would be. A few days ago, the Saudis struck targets in northern Iraq, targeting Iran-aligned militia groups. It was partially this action which resulted in Iran striking back at Saudi Arabia yesterday. The groups that were targeted by the Saudis, were allegedly smaller sub-groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which had not formally joined with the Iraqi government. For context, the PMF are an infamous collection of militia units and tribes, which align with Iran along religious lines in addition to sharing the geography along the Iranian border.In recent years, the PMF has been rolled into the Iraqi government, to serve as the official militia/homeguard for the nation. This results in a complex web of loyalties and relationships, as making the PMF a part of the official uniformed Iraqi military service makes them harder to strike due to the diplomatic situation. This is probably why the Saudis attacked when they didn't necessarily need to. They found a way to strike PMF factions that would probably result in a fracturing within the region, but also not really result in a retaliatory attack from the Iraqi government. Or at least, that was the gamble on the part of the Saudis. The fact that the PMF sporadically launch drones at the Saudis helped justify this targeting effort last weekend. However in effect, what this has done, has brought Iran and Iraq closer together...at least in terms of hating the Saudis. The problem is that the Saudis (much like others in the region) have a habit of kicking a hornets nest, then handing that nest to the United States to deal with. When the Saudis hit the PMF in Iraq, the militia groups in Iraq will probably take this as an opportunity to increase attacks on the American base in Erbil (as they have for years), and the Iraqi government might not be so inclined to reign them in...because the Americans are not reigning in the Saudis. In short, things are sliding sideways, and because it's complicated and can't be compressed into a quick soundbite for decision makers to consume, the danger is very likely going unnoticed.Even though it is complicated, this is a comparatively easy example of how escalations can take place not just vertically, but also horizontally. Vertical escalations take the form of increasingly more severe tit-for-tat airstrikes, but horizontal escalations are far less intense, while spreading out around the world. This has resulted in the situation sleepwalking into serious territory, which has largely gone unnoticed because it hasn't been flashy enough for headlines. The Saudis are striking the Iraqis, the Houthis are hitting the Saudis, somebody is striking the Egyptians, the Israelis have slipped back into the shadows, the Iranians are hitting the Jordanians and Americans, and the United States is perplexingly bombing coastal targets and bridges within Iran...which are rather forebodingly only used during the wintertime wet season. These horizontal escalations have been a mainstay of this conflict since the beginning, but right now these more indirect escalations are taking center stage as the United States and Iran slug it out with missiles, drones, and bombs, and the United States is unable to make progress for the time being.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
Transcribe →The Wire - July 29, 2026
2w ago00:03:41Tap to summarize//The Wire//2300Z July 29, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST EXPANDS TO AFRICA AS DRONE ATTACK REPORTED IN EGYPT. IRAN CONDUCTS MORE MISSILE STRIKES ON AMERICAN BASES IN MIDDLE EAST, UNITED STATES BEGINS RESPONSE THIS EVENING. CYBERATTACK TARGETS MINNESOTA WATER SUPPLY.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: Overnight Iran conducted missile and drone attacks throughout the region, targeting American positions. Muwaffaq al Salti was hit again, along with the American base in Erbil. After this series of attacks, the White House has indicated that the US will be retaliating soon, and as of this report American airstrikes have resumed within Iran.Egypt: This morning, explosions were reported onboard a floating natural gas storage/processing platform in Damietta Port. An American-registered Floating Storage and Regassification Unit (FSRU) was reportedly struck by at least one munition, which resulted in several follow-on explosions. Separately, another tanker vessel was reportedly struck in the same general area. As of this afternoon firefighting boats were still cooling the superstructure and most of the topside equipment onboard the two vessels.Analyst Comment: Egyptian authorities have stated that these explosions were an industrial accident, however a video taken by a crew member onboard the vessel that was struck confirms that the incident was a drone attack. Regardless, nobody has claimed this as a targeting effort yet, and if this was Iran, it would be the longest-range attack they have conducted so far during the war. As a result, it's possible (or even likely) that these drones were launched from somewhere closer than Iran. Lebanon is the only wild guess that makes sense, as it's a straight shot across the water to the target.-HomeFront-USA: Yesterday evening American Airlines announced a nationwide ground stop of all of their aircraft due to an IT outage. The FAA implemented the emergency action due to an unspecified loss of connectivity between American Airlines aircraft and ground control systems. Mass delays were reported nationwide while the outage was being fixed, and after several hours systems were restored.Minnesota: This afternoon a large scale cyberattack was reported targeting water treatment and processing systems throughout the state. The cyberattack was only disclosed to the public this morning, but initially took place on July 26/27. The immediate impact of this cyberattack resulted in power outages and the control of automated water management systems being affected. As of this afternoon, the towns of Braham, Maple Plain, Plymouth, and south St. Paul have all reported being impacted by the cyberattack, with many districts throughout the state remaining under a boil-water advisory.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: CENTCOM and the media are calling Iran's actions last night a "surprise attack", but in reality it was no different than all of the other attacks conducted so far. CENTCOM has stated that all missiles were intercepted, but locals on the ground have provided photos of large fires and smoke plumes being emitted from American bases. Nevertheless, theses attacks probably pushed the decision to be made regarding a return to strikes, in some form. The war officially expanding to now include Egypt is very likely to complicate the situation further...this one war involving Iran has now technically spread to a total of three continents: Asia, Europe, and now northern Africa. Of course, one or two drone strikes does not equal a large scale operation, but back in 1942 Doolittle's Raid didn't either. It was meant to send a message, much like the extremely long-range attack that was carried out in Egypt today.Egypt certainly received that message lout and clear, but it is questionable as to if the significance of this small attack was understood by the United States. Though the usual tit-for-tat cycle has been disrupted somewhat over the past week, at a more strategic level all indications are in place pointing toward a continuation of what's been ongoing since the ceasefire was broken: Tit-for-tat strikes continuing that stay below the level of all-out war, but also resulting in no diplomatic solution for the time being. All the while the war slowly creeps outside the bounds of the region, and the message becomes more clear: From the Nile Delta to Mumbai...nowhere is safe from the impact of war.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
Transcribe →The Wire - July 28, 2026
2w ago00:02:36Tap to summarize//The Wire//2000Z July 28, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR EARTHQUAKE STRIKES SOUTHERN JAPAN. NETANYAHU ARRIVES IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR SEN. GRAHAM FUNERAL. HOUTHI TARGETING OF SAUDI OIL REFINERIES REMAINS CONSTANT.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Japan: This morning a major earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.1 struck the Kumamoto prefecture, causing damage to critical infrastructure and residential areas in southern Japan. Aeon Mall was one of the most heavily damaged structures, with several entrapments being reported as shoppers were unable to exit the building due to a partial collapse of the structure. After this collapse, a gas explosion was also reported at the mall, and as of this morning approximately 20-30x people remained missing.Middle East: No major changes to the overall situation were reported overnight. Satellite imagery has become available that confirms the Houthis not just hit the Jazan refinery a few days ago, but also the refinery at Yanbu. This afternoon, the Houthis announced that they had targeted a tanker vessel which has been at anchor off Yanbu for a few days, though the success of this targeting has not yet been confirmed.Analyst Comment: Despite the devastating strikes on Saudi oil facilities over the past few days, oil markets continue to plummet, indicating a sharp departure from the reality of the situation.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - Yesterday afternoon PM Netanyahu arrived for the state funeral of Sen. Lindsey Graham, as well as to conduct meetings regarding the war in Iran. This morning, the proceedings for Sen. Graham began at the Capitol, and various politicians and dignitaries are expected to make an appearance throughout the day.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Debate is growing regarding the general status of the war in the Middle East. Iranian targeting has remained fairly tepid after last week's strikes, although the Houthis have continued to deal damage to Saudi infrastructure over the past few days. For the United States, every indicator lined up last week to suggest weekend strikes were going to take place, but leaks from the White House and Pentagon have suggested that the strikes were called off for now. As to why, the rumors diverge sharply and there's no way to get a solid bead on what the actual plan is at the moment. The situation has reached another point (much like has happened before) where the US can just as equally go all-in on another round of strikes, or the US could do nothing. Nevertheless, if strikes are planned, timing wise it's almost certain to take place after Netanyahu returns home from his visit to the US.President Trump himself confirmed one of the main reasons for PM Netanyahu visiting Washington, is to provide an in-person briefing on the infamous Pickaxe Mountain complex at the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran. In various statements since this leaked, President Trump pushed back on the significance of this underground complex (and thus indicating less support for conducting another Midnight Hammer-style operation), but as always this can go either way.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
Transcribe →Intel Update - July 25 - PetroWar
2w ago00:15:32Tap to summarizeResearch Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - The HomeFront 03:02 - Europe 06:53 - Middle East 14:10 - GhostNet and Reticulum Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Odysee: https://odysee.com/@S2Underground:7 Gab: https://gab.com/S2underground Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA
Transcribe →The Wire - July 27, 2026
2w ago00:04:45Tap to summarize//The Wire//2300Z July 27, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WEEKEND SHOOTING REPORTED AT SEATTLE FESTIVAL. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED IN BERLIN. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED IN PARIS. IRANIAN TARGETING CONTINUES TO STRIKE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST, U.S. HAS NOT RESPONDED YET.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: After the intense Iranian targeting of American positions Friday evening, sporadic Iranian drone strikes have been reported throughout the region. Other than targeting American positions, Iranian drone attacks have also been observed striking Kurdish militia encampments in northeastern Iraq. On the American side, CENTCOM has not disclosed any strikes within Iran for several days.Red Sea/HOA: Nearly the entire Jazan Refinery in Saudi Arabia remains on fire following the Houthi targeting on Saturday. As of last night, fire detection satellites indicated that most of the facility has been totally destroyed and satellite imagery from yesterday indicates a very large fire at this facility is still burning and the smoke plume stretches over 50 miles to the south.Europe: This morning Iran issued a public condemnation of the Ukrainian targeting of a Russian vessel. Over the weekend a Ukrainian drone struck a Russian vessel, which resulted in the death of one crew member. This crew member happened to be an Iranian citizen, which prompted Foreign Minister Araghchi to issue a statement of outrage.Analyst Comment: It is very unlikely that the Ukrainians would have known that one random crewmember onboard a vessel was technically Iranian, but intentional or not, this incident is another step towards linking the war in Europe with the conflict in the Middle East.Germany: On Sunday, a vehicle ramming attack was reported at the Pride festival in Berlin. One assailant ramming his vehicle into a crowd in the vicinity of the Tiergarden west of the Brandenburg Gate, killing one person and wounding 29 others. After the ramming, the suspect exited the vehicle and reportedly stabbed several people with a machete, before fleeing the scene. This prompted a nationwide manhunt for the assailant that was carried out Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening, the suspect had been located in a residential area of Spandau. Once located, the suspect allegedly tried to stab the arresting officers, which resulted in the suspect being shot and killed. The suspect was identified as Abdul Ballout, who had reportedly just been released from a juvenile detention facility.France: This morning a stabbing attack was reported in Paris, near Porte de Clichy. One assailant stabbed 3x women on the street, before being restrained by bystanders and an off-duty police officer. While being held down by responding citizens, the attacker claimed that the attack was Islamic in nature, prompting the government to classify this incident as a terror attack.-HomeFront-Washington: Yesterday a shooting was reported at the Bite of Seattle food festival at the Seattle Center. Multiple black/Middle Eastern males began shooting at each other inside a crowd at the event, which resulted in 3x people killed, and 4x others wounded.Analyst Comment: This incident was initially reported as a mass shooting, however the multiple shooters were not targeting the crowd, as this was almost certainly a gang/cultural shooting. As a result of the cultural implications, Seattle Police have not released the name of the suspect(s) they have in custody, nor have they released the photo of the suspect which remains at large.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Despite the substantial Iranian targeting over the past few days, the American response has so far been very minimal and no meaningful strikes have been conducted since Friday night within Iran. This is probably a reflection of the calm before the storm, as the United States continues to stage assets for a large scale attack sometime soon. Over the weekend, many phone calls were likely made which may have delayed whatever American targeting was planned to take place, as several Iranian/Houthi targeting efforts appear to have been more substantial than expected. The Houthi strike on the Jazan Refinery was very clearly an extremely devastating strike from the Houthis, which probably caused the Saudis pause regarding how much hurt the Houthis can bring to the table. Similarly, the heavy targeting of Erbil (and Patriot battery at this base) has likely resulted in a degradation of air defenses in this sector. How bad the damage is, is anyone's guess, but based on the scorch marks observed from space last week, it is hard to imagine this air defense site remaining operational. The Iranians have also claimed to have struck half a dozen other air defense sites throughout the region, but these can't be verified until better satellite imagery is available. Which might take time due to the deliberate censorship of imagery as mandated by the U.S. government.Over the past few weeks, anecdotal evidence from locals on the ground throughout the region has increasingly indicated fewer and fewer successful interceptions of Iranian munitions. These reports are very hard to quantify as most of the time it's a shepherd looking up and visually seeing the interceptors miss the Iranian missile, or no interceptors being launched in the first place. Obviously, these reports are about as unconfirmed as it can get, but the smoking craters that are visible on satellite imagery add a lot of credence to the general theory that, for whatever reason, interceptions are not as effective as advertised. However, as it stands the U.S. will probably respond in some way, not just because of the scale of the Iranian missile strikes, but also the fact that this targeting (and the collapse of the ceasefire) has resulted in the Strait of Hormuz remaining fully closed. What that response will be or when it will be carried out, only time will tell.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//
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