Today, a look at markets testing the lows again yesterday, but trying to put in a rally ahead of a huge market event tomorrow that could define where this market heads next in what could prove an either-or moment. Elsewhere, interesting market reaction to Oracle's earnings report after the close, and super-critical support levels have come into play for the gold price, which faces its own either-or moment technically and thematically as the USD remains strong. Lots more on macro and FX and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

In "The abundance illusion" noted oil industry analyst Jeff Currie notes the risks the oil market (and the wider global economy) faces this summer as seasonal demand rises inexorably while oil has yet to begin meaningfully flowing through the strait of Hormuz again. Also, he notes China's "New Joule Order" which has its own tremendous implications as the country puts its energy system resilience on display.
HT to FTAlphaville for another great link today, this one to a Kardamow substack article that discusses the same concerns Currie discusses in the above link, with some more data specifics.
An FT Article looks at US attempts to piece together a "dark transit" system for oil tankers to transit the Hormuz Strait via a narrow and risk shipping lane that hugs the Omani coast.
Stratechery.com has a much more positive take on Apple's AI strategy with Siri than the market's very negative assessment in recent days, in a piece it calls The iPhone's Last Stand.
This year's Microsoft Build conference is seeing the company's Project Solara announcement, the company's attempt to envision a new operating system and network of new devices, among other things, aimed at addressing the transition to the agentic AI era. The Verge discusses this as well as Microsoft's broader AI strategy.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

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