Podcast Summary

Scams, Money, & Murder – Holiday Special: The New Year's Murders Part 2

Podcast by Crime House
Hosts: Vanessa Richardson and Carter Roy
Release Date: January 1, 2026

Episode Overview

The episode continues the in-depth exploration of the 1998 New Year's Eve disappearance of Olivia Hope and Ben Smart in New Zealand. Hosts Vanessa Richardson and Carter Roy dissect the controversial investigation and trial that followed, focusing on the primary suspect, Scott Watson. They examine the complexities of the forensic evidence, witness testimonies, and the enduring questions around the case — asking whether the truth about what happened to Olivia and Ben has ever truly been uncovered.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Grief, Closure, and the Case’s Impact

• Stages of Grief & Closure: The show opens with a reflection on how the families of the victims struggled to find closure amidst ongoing uncertainty.
  • Quote, Carter Roy (01:37): "For those people who have lost a loved one, that list ... misses a crucial step. Closure."
• The Event: Olivia and Ben went missing after attending a New Year’s party at Furneaux Lodge in Marlborough Sounds, NZ.

The Investigation Intensifies

• Circumstantial Suspect: Scott Watson
  • Scott’s boat, the Blade, does not match initial witness descriptions (size, color, number of masts, Scott’s appearance).
  • Despite discrepancies, police fixated on Scott due to his criminal history and behavior at the party.
  • Vanessa Richardson (06:31): "While the man Guy saw was scruffy with long hair and a beard, Scott was clean shaven with short hair. But even though his boat and appearance didn't match, police thought his personality did."
• Boat & Evidence Searches
  • Two police searches of the Blade yield minimal forensic evidence.
  • Discovery of numerous scratch marks inside a hatch—interpreted as possible signs of someone trying to escape.
  • Discovery of clean algae-free hull sections (possibly from bodies being dumped, or normal boat maintenance).
  • Over 400 hairs found on a tiger-print blanket but initial DNA testing is inconclusive.

The Forensic Break (11:41–13:32)

• A Single Hair Ties Olivia to the Blade
  • After further analysis, two long blonde hairs are found on the blanket; one (Sample 12) strongly likely matches Olivia’s maternal line.
  • Carter Roy (13:32): "On March 7, 1998, a forensic scientist matched a hair found on Scott Watson's boat with Olivia Hope. Police finally had hard evidence that Scott had contact with Olivia before she and Ben Smart went missing."
  • Debate over whether this was conclusive evidence or could have resulted from secondary transfer.

Doubts and Defensive Explanations (14:02–17:07)

• Scott Watson's Explanations
  • Scratches: Made by nieces (aged 2 and 4), with family corroboration.
  • Algae: Cleaned as routine maintenance.
  • Hair: Claims no contact with Olivia; raises possibility of secondary transfer and lab contamination.
  • The defense points out the incriminating scratch marks are on parts accessible only when the hatch is open.
• Police and Media Tactics
  • Police wiretap the Watson family, seeking confessions and evidence; family is heavily scrutinized and harassed by media.
  • Hostility escalates between Watsons and law enforcement.
  • Memorable Moment (18:12): Family discussions about Detective Pope and fantasies about revenge circulate amidst stress and rumor.

Witness Testimonies and Lineup Issues (18:12–22:46)

• Guy Wallace (Water Taxi Driver) and Roz McNeely (Bartender)
  • Consistently describe a “scruffy stranger” not matching Scott’s appearance.
  • Police construct a new photo lineup with a strategically chosen “mid-blink” photo of Scott to match the witnesses’ description of narrow eyes.
  • Both witnesses pick Scott out, but with significant hesitation and after heavy police suggestion.
  • Key Quote, Vanessa Richardson (22:46): "While [Roz] was uncertain, the police were ecstatic. Finally, after more than four months of investigation, they had witness testimony they could use against their number one suspect."

The Arrest and the Trial (24:18–31:06)

• Scott Watson Arrested
  • Scott is arrested June 15, 1998, after months of intense police focus.
  • Quote, Carter Roy (24:18): "When they finally slapped the cuffs on him, Scott had just two words for the officers booking him. 'About time.'"
• Trial Strategies
  • Prosecution relies on a new “Two Trip Theory,” suggesting Scott left his boat unseen to pick up Olivia and Ben.
  • Jailhouse informants testify, but their credibility is suspect (one later recants; both benefited from cooperating).
  • Forensic and circumstantial evidence spotlighted—scratches, hair—but defense highlights reasonable doubts and contamination possibilities.
  • Memorable moment (29:37), Vanessa Richardson: "During the trial, Witness B admitted to having his sentence reduced because of his cooperation ... police gave him a cell phone and a car to use once he was released."
  • Despite weaknesses, Scott is convicted on September 11, 1999.

Doubts, Appeals, and Changing Public Opinion (31:46–36:34)

• Witness Recantations
  • Roz McNeely and Guy Wallace both later retract their courtroom identifications, insisting Scott was not the man they saw.
  • Jailhouse informant A admits he lied to avoid jail time.
  • Even Olivia’s father, Gerald Hope, begins expressing doubt about Scott’s guilt, criticizing police tunnel vision and lack of pursuit of other leads.
  • Gerald Hope (paraphrased, 36:34): "We never got the truth. We haven't got the truth yet."
• Failed Appeals and Media Attention
  • Scott’s appeals center on the shaky “Two Trip Theory” and evidentiary flaws but are denied.
  • Public sentiment shifts; skepticism about Scott’s guilt grows from 2002 to 2007.
  • Further legal reviews and pardon requests are unsuccessful; Scott remains incarcerated and comes up for parole unsuccessfully several times.
  • In 2025, evidence is once again reviewed but the conviction stands.

The Lingering Questions (36:34–38:00)

• Unresolved Closure
  • Focus on Scott’s possible innocence overshadows the lives and memory of Olivia and Ben.
  • Families and the public remain haunted by doubts, with the truth still elusive decades later.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments with Timestamps

• "Closure… that's not always so easy to find." — Carter Roy (01:49)
• “While the man Guy saw was scruffy... Scott was clean shaven with short hair.” — Vanessa Richardson (06:31)
• “In other words, there was a high chance that the hair was Olivia's or her sister Amelia's." — Carter Roy (11:41)
• “Knowing how tight Scott was with his family, police thought one of them might know more than they let on. So investigators bugged the Watsons home..." — Carter Roy (17:07)
• “Roz McNeely... was sure that the scruffy man she remembered was not Scott Watson.” — Vanessa Richardson (31:46)
• “We never got the truth. We haven't got the truth yet.” — Gerald Hope to Scott Watson in prison (36:34)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Case Overview & Circumstances of Disappearance: 05:20–07:47
• First and Second Boat Search, Discovery of Hairs: 07:47–11:41
• Lab Analysis & DNA Breakthrough: 11:41–13:32
• Scott Watson's Explanations & Defense: 14:02–16:04
• Wiretaps, Media Fervor, and Family Scrutiny: 17:07–18:12
• Witness Photo Lineups & Identification Issues: 18:12–22:46
• Arrest and Trial Proceedings: 24:18–31:06
• Witness Recantations & Appeal Efforts: 31:46–35:16
• Gerald Hope's Doubts & Lasting Ambiguity: 36:34–38:00

Tone & Style

Serious, empathetic, detail-oriented, and skeptical—striking a balance between recounting tragic details, scrutinizing evidence, and honoring the human cost for the families and community.

Conclusion

This episode paints a vivid picture of a decades-old true crime mystery fraught with controversy, questionable police tactics, dubious evidence, and lasting grief. Despite one man’s conviction, serious doubts persist. The show highlights not only the procedural twists but the anguish of the families still waiting for answers — a powerful reminder of the unresolved human losses at the heart of every true crime headline.