Podcast Summary: Science Vs – "Autism: The Real Reason It’s Going Up"

Episode Information:

• Title: Autism: The Real Reason It’s Going Up
• Host: Wendy Zuckerman
• Producer: Meryl Horne
• Release Date: June 19, 2025
• Description: This episode delves into the increasing rates of autism diagnoses worldwide. It examines various theories behind the rise, including genetics, environmental factors, screen time, and changes in diagnostic criteria, providing a comprehensive analysis backed by scientific research.

1. Introduction

[00:00] Wendy Zuckerman:
Wendy introduces the episode, announcing a short hiatus until September and inviting listeners to submit ideas for future topics. She sets the stage for the episode's focus on the rising rates of autism diagnoses, highlighting recent CDC reports that have thrust this issue into the public eye.

Notable Quote:
"Rates of autism have been going up and up for decades. But then a couple of months ago, the CDC released the latest numbers catapulting this issue into the spotlight." [00:00]

2. Rising Autism Rates and Initial Reactions

[00:57] Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
RFK Jr. emphasizes the alarming increase in autism diagnoses, referring to it as an epidemic.

Notable Quote:
"This is an epidemic." [01:33]

[01:05] Wendy Zuckerman:
Presents the CDC data showing a 15% increase in autism diagnoses over two years, with current rates at one in 31 children, a fivefold increase since 25 years ago. She notes that the rise is not confined to the U.S. but is a global phenomenon affecting countries like Japan, Canada, Australia, and various European nations.

3. Possible Causes Explored

a. Genetics

[06:35] Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
RFK Jr. underscores genetics as a significant factor, stating that 70-90% of autism risk is inherited.

Notable Quote:
"Genetics is sort of the elephant in the room that you can't ignore." [05:49]
"It's somewhere between 70 to 90%." [06:35]

[06:39] Meryl Horne:
Highlights the substantial role genetics play, noting that while specific genes are not fully identified, the inherited component is undeniably large.

b. Advanced Parental Age

[07:21] Meryl Horne:
Explains that older parental age, particularly mothers over 40, slightly increases the likelihood of having autistic children. However, she notes that this factor alone cannot account for the significant rise in autism rates.

Notable Statistics:

• Overall Autism Rate: 3.2% (1 in 31 children)
• Autism Rate for Mothers Over 40: Increased to 5.6% [07:59]

[09:01] Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
Acknowledges that older parental age contributes to autism rates but insists it doesn’t account for the majority of the increase.

Notable Quote:
"It's certainly going to contribute some portion, but it's not explaining the lion's share." [09:01]

c. Environmental Toxins

[11:10] Meryl Horne:
Discusses the potential link between environmental toxins and autism, including air pollution and heavy metals. However, she points out that pollution and heavy metal exposure have generally decreased over recent decades, conflicting with the rising autism rates.

[11:34] Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
Criticizes the focus on environmental toxins, particularly vaccines, asserting that vaccines do not cause autism.

Notable Quote:
"Vaccines do not cause autism, full stop." [12:01]

d. Screen Time

[14:45] Meryl Horne:
Explores the hypothesis that increased screen time may be linked to higher autism rates. She cites studies suggesting that excessive screen exposure in early childhood might be associated with the development of autistic traits.

Notable Study:
A pilot study involving nine families reduced screen time from an average of 5.5 hours to 5 minutes daily, resulting in decreased autism-related behaviors such as improved social skills and reduced repetitive behaviors [16:16].

Counterpoints:

• Karen Heffler: Emphasizes that screen time studies show mixed results and that the correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Additionally, some children might already exhibit autistic traits, leading parents to increase screen usage rather than screens causing autism [20:29].

4. Changing Definitions and Diagnostic Criteria

[23:33] Meryl Horne:
Introduces the concept that the rising autism rates may be largely due to expanded diagnostic criteria and increased awareness rather than an actual increase in prevalence.

Notable Quote:
"Yeah, I think it accounts for most of it. And I think all of us worry that we're consuming plastics and things that we, you know, that we wouldn't choose to eat or breathe, but that can't account for most of what's gone on." [35:59]

[24:10] Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
Rejects the notion that changes in diagnostic criteria are responsible for the increase, maintaining that the rise is genuine.

Notable Quote:
"Doctors and therapists in the past were not stupid. They weren't missing all these cases. The epidemic is real." [24:19]

Katherine Lord:
A UCLA professor, acknowledges the expanded definitions but argues that this accounts for most of the increase in diagnoses.

Notable Quote:
"Basically, yeah, I think he's wrong." [35:59]

5. Research Findings on Autism Increases

Maureen Durkin's Research:

[32:08] Meryl Horne:
Discusses epidemiological research by Maureen Durkin, which differentiates between severe and mild autism cases over time.

Findings:

• Severe Autism Rates (2000-2016): No increase; slight decline [33:08].
• Mild Autism Rates: Significant increase, accounting for the majority of new cases [33:35].

Visual Representation:
Meryl references a graph presented by Durkin, illustrating that while severe cases have plateaued or declined, milder cases have surged, supporting the argument that expanded diagnostic criteria are the primary driver behind the rising autism rates.

Katherine Lord's Input:
Confirms that the majority of the increase is due to better detection and broader definitions, not an actual rise in severe cases.

6. Counterarguments and Alternative Views

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
Continues to assert that environmental toxins are the main cause, dismissing the expanded definitions and better diagnostic practices as insufficient explanations.

Autistic Perspectives:

• Dina Gassner: An autistic advocate, argues against stigmatizing language and emphasizes the positive outcomes of better recognition and support for autistic individuals.

Notable Quote from Dina Gassner (through Meryl Horne):
"We're seeing this rising, you know, army of these really neurodivergently intact, healthy, well-adjusted autistic kids that are coming up. And that's a good thing." [40:50]

7. Personal Accounts and Impacts

Dina Gassner's Story:

[37:32] Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:
Shares a personal experience of misdiagnosis with bipolar disorder before being correctly identified as autistic, highlighting systemic issues in diagnosis.

Notable Quote:
"I was completely dysfunctional. You know, I could not. I just wasn't a human being for that timeframe. And so I finally found a doctor who was actually treating my children who said, I think you might want to reevaluate where you are. And he saved my life." [37:53]

Impact of Misdiagnosis:

• Leads to inappropriate treatments (e.g., unnecessary medication like lithium).
• Increases autism diagnoses indirectly by identifying previously undetected cases.

8. Conclusion

[40:57] Meryl Horne and Wendy Zuckerman:
Conclude that the apparent autism epidemic is largely a result of changed diagnostic criteria, increased awareness, and broader definitions rather than a true rise in autism prevalence. They emphasize the importance of recognizing and supporting the growing autistic population rather than viewing it as a tragedy.

Final Remarks:

• Katherine Lord: Affirms that the increased diagnoses are beneficial, allowing individuals to understand themselves and access necessary support.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Expresses a positive outlook on the rising autistic population, celebrating increased visibility and community formation despite his earlier assertions.

Notable Closing Quote:
"We solved the case of the so-called autism epidemic." [40:58]

Key Takeaways:

• Rising Autism Rates: Significant increase in diagnoses over recent decades, now at 1 in 31 children.
• Primary Cause: Expansion of diagnostic criteria and heightened awareness, rather than an actual rise in autism prevalence.
• Genetics: Remains a major factor, accounting for 70-90% of autism risk.
• Environmental Factors: Mixed evidence; no definitive link established between environmental toxins or increased screen time and autism.
• Changing Definitions: Broader definitions now include milder forms of autism, contributing to the higher diagnosis rates.
• Gender and Racial Diagnosis: More balanced recognition across genders and racial groups, correcting previous biases.
• Personal Impact: Accurate diagnoses improve access to support and community for autistic individuals and their families.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• "This is an epidemic." – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [01:33]
• "Genetics is sort of the elephant in the room that you can't ignore." – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [05:49]
• "Vaccines do not cause autism, full stop." – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [12:01]
• "We're seeing this rising, you know, army of these really neurodivergently intact, healthy, well-adjusted autistic kids that are coming up. And that's a good thing." – Dina Gassner [40:50]
• "We solved the case of the so-called autism epidemic." – Meryl Horne [40:58]

Conclusion: The Science Vs episode "Autism: The Real Reason It’s Going Up" presents a thorough examination of the rising autism diagnoses, debunking the myth of an actual epidemic and attributing the increase to improved diagnostic practices and broader definitions. Through expert interviews, research findings, and personal stories, the episode emphasizes the importance of understanding autism in its varied forms and the positive outcomes of increased recognition and support.