Science Vs – "Fertility Rates: Are We Running Out of Babies??"

Host: Blythe Terrell (filling in for Wendy Zuckerman)
Producer/Contributor: Rose Rimler
Date: October 16, 2025
Podcast Publisher: Spotify Studios

Episode Overview

This episode of Science Vs investigates the global decline in fertility rates — are we really running out of babies, and should we be worried? Politicians and pundits are calling for a reversal of the “baby bust” with dramatic proposals, while others suggest it could be positive for the planet. The team dives into the science to find out what's actually happening with fertility rates worldwide, why they're dropping, what the social implications are, and what (if anything) governments can do to encourage more births.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Fertility Panic: Where Did It Come From?

• Politicians, including former President Trump and VP J.D. Vance, are championing policies to increase the birthrate (00:29–01:20).
• Pronatalist movements, offering proposals from cash bonuses to "national medals of motherhood," are gaining traction (01:35).
• Blythe frames the central questions: Is declining fertility a problem for society? What does the science say? (02:35).

2. Falling Fertility Rates: How Widespread?

• The trend of declining birth rates is global, not just in the US or Europe (04:51–05:15).

  “The downward trend for birth rates… is happening almost everywhere and has been for decades.” – Blythe (05:15)

• U.S. fertility at an all-time low (1.62), with global fertility slightly above replacement but dropping (05:15–07:02).
  • Replacement rate = 2.1 births/woman.
  • Peak population projected in 60 years, then decline.

3. Does a Shrinking Population Solve Other Problems?

• Lower population won’t be fast or dramatic enough to fix climate change issues (07:40–08:27).

  “It’s not gonna fix climate. Scientists argue to have fewer people to have lower birth rates.” – Blythe (08:27)

4. Case Study: South Korea’s Record Low Fertility

• South Korea currently has the lowest fertility rate in the world at 0.75 (08:53–09:02).
• Social and economic transformation: “Gold Miss” phenomenon (10:28–11:01) — highly educated women opting out of marriage and children.

  “We just never lived in a society with a 0.75 fertility rate.” – Dr. Jisoo Hwang, Seoul National University (09:16)

• Cultural lag: Fast rise of women in education and work, but home/gender norms haven’t caught up (12:00–12:50).

  “All the institutions around us are not designed to operate with both mom and dad working full time.” – Dr. Hwang (12:50)

5. Consequences of Ultra-Low Fertility

• A "kid desert": closing schools, lack of peers, social infrastructure fading (16:26–17:28).
• Aging population strains pension, healthcare, and the social safety net (18:03–19:28).

  “In the extreme scenario where we don’t do anything, then those kind of systems will collapse.” – Dr. Hwang (19:14)

• South Korea: “Super-aged society,” widespread elderly poverty, high suicide rates (20:05).

6. The Search for Solutions: What Actually Works?

a. "Influencer Pronatalism" – The Georgia Case Study

• In Georgia, the Orthodox Church's Patriarch Ilia II personally baptizes all third children or higher in a family (24:52–27:11).
• Results: 40,000 additional births, fertility rate rose from 1.76 to 2.3 in two years (28:23–28:30).

  “Within a space of 24 months, we actually see it rise to 2.3. So that's quite a big jump.” – Dr. Neha Diopa (28:23)

• But the effect faded over time; success required a uniquely trusted leader (29:57–30:47).

b. Systemic Policies to Support Families

• Childcare: Expanding affordable childcare increases first births (31:29–32:18).

  “If you increase childcare slots for young kids by just 1 percentage point, the odds of somebody having their first baby goes up more than 10%.” – Blythe (32:18)

• Parental Leave: Longer paid leave supports higher birth rates (32:18–32:30).

  “In Austria, they increased parental leave from one year to two years and saw about 12 additional kids per 100 women.” – Blythe (32:29)

• Cash Bonuses (“cash for kids”): May encourage earlier births, but no long-term dramatic impact (33:44–34:48).
• IVF Access: Helps older women conceive, but doesn’t substantially raise overall birth rates (34:48).

c. Other Incentives & Concerns

• Menstrual education classes: Limited rationale, possibly addressing a minor gap (34:55–35:32).
• Medals/Recognition: No historic evidence of effectiveness, sometimes linked to problematic nationalistic or coercive motives (35:40–36:58).

  “Historically, this idea of pronatalism… is also very tied up with white supremacy… Christian nationalism. And… policies that end up being coercive.” – Blythe (36:58)

d. Immigration as a Buffer

• Increased immigration can help stabilize population and workforce; U.S. population would decline rapidly without it (37:36–38:03).

7. How "Crisis" Is This? What Do the Experts Say?

• Most experts do not see imminent “crisis” at US rates (>1.5).

  “Nobody that I talked to thought that humanity was in danger of going extinct anytime soon.” – Blythe (40:06)

• The real issue is people not having as many children as they want, due to external barriers — not a lack of desire (40:54).

  “The real crisis is actually people can’t have the kids they want.” – Blythe (40:54)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The downward trend for birth rates... is happening almost everywhere and has been for decades."
  – Blythe Terrell (05:15)

• "It's a crazy number... it's difficult to imagine because we just never lived in a society with a 0.75 fertility rate."
  – Dr. Jisoo Hwang (09:16)

• "We are all given 24 hours a day. Something needs to give."
  – Dr. Jisoo Hwang (14:57)

• "If you increase childcare slots for young kids by just 1 percentage point, the odds of somebody having their first baby goes up more than 10%."
  – Blythe Terrell (32:18)

• "Within a space of 24 months, we actually see [the fertility rate in Georgia] rise to 2.3. So that's quite a big jump."
  – Dr. Neha Diopa (28:23)

• "The real crisis is actually people can’t have the kids they want. And I was like, well, then this is not a crisis of desire."
  – Blythe Terrell (40:54)

Major Timestamps

• 00:00–02:35: Introduction of the fertility panic; recent political attention.
• 04:50–07:30: How birth rate decline is global; defining replacement rate and trends.
• 08:53–15:46: South Korea as a case study; social change, gender norms, and “Gold Miss” phenomenon.
• 16:22–20:14: Consequences: school closures, aging population, and social infrastructure challenges.
• 23:17–33:32: Policies to raise fertility: influencer effect (Georgia), childcare, parental leave, cash bonuses.
• 34:48–38:03: Other interventions: IVF, menstrual education, medals, immigration.
• 38:40–41:47: Should we be worried? Expert views, limits of current policies, and Blythe’s conclusions.

Episode Summary: Insights for Non-Listeners

• Declining fertility rates are real and widespread, but the scale and causes differ across countries.
• Fears of extinction or total social collapse are overblown at present fertility levels, especially in the U.S.
• South Korea demonstrates the rapid consequences of ultra-low fertility: childless schools, aging society, and stressed welfare.
• Major contributors to lower fertility: changing female education and economic participation, without matching support for work-life balance.
• Influencer and cultural interventions (e.g., Georgia’s mass baptisms) can have dramatic, if short-lived, results — but are generally not replicable.
• Evidence shows that policies like paid parental leave and affordable childcare nudge fertility upward, but aren't silver bullets.
• Cash payments and IVF access aren’t game-changers at the population level, though they can help certain groups.
• Immigration is a significant buffer for maintaining national populations, though it’s not a global solution as overall rates fall.
• Experts advocate focusing on helping people have the children they want, rather than panicking about a lack of desire for kids.

Closing Tone

The discussion is lively, thoughtful, and nuanced, marked by humor (“I am not volunteering to get impregnated by Elon Musk,” (23:32)), but careful not to trivialize complex demographic shifts. The hosts balance optimism — that policies and societal adjustments can help — with realism about what is and isn’t likely to work. Ultimately, the fertility problem isn’t about running out of babies, but about removing social and economic roadblocks that stop people from having the kids they already want.

End of summary.