Have We Crossed the Climate Tipping Point?

Summary

Science Vs: Have We Crossed the Climate Tipping Point? Hosted by Spotify Studios' Science Vs, released on September 19, 2024

---

1. Introduction to the Climate Tipping Point Debate

In the episode "Have We Crossed the Climate Tipping Point?", host Wendi Zuckerman and guest Australian comedian Michael Hing delve into the pressing question: Have we already surpassed critical thresholds in climate change that could render it irreversible?

Wendi Zuckerman opens the discussion with a poignant introduction:

"Did we just cross the tipping point when it comes to climate change? How screwed are we?" [00:01]

Michael Hing responds with a mix of humor and concern:

"When you say to bring some comedy to this, is this a hilarious topic? Cause I do feel like a lot of people listening to this will just broadly be bummed out." [00:27]

2. Understanding Climate Tipping Points

The concept of a climate tipping point is central to the episode. Tipping points refer to critical thresholds where small changes can lead to significant and potentially irreversible impacts on the Earth's climate system.

Wendi explains:

"The term tipping point gets bandied about a lot. Every time something bad happens in terms of the climate, it's like when near the tipping point." [07:32]

To clarify, Felicity McCormack from Monash University, Australia, uses an analogy from her niece's book, "Who Sank the Boat?":

"As each animal jumps in, the level of the boat drops a little lower... until finally the tiny little mouse jumps in and the boat sinks." [08:05]

This illustrates how incremental changes can lead to a sudden and dramatic shift.

3. The Ice Sheets: Greenland and Antarctica

A significant focus of the episode is on the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, which are critical indicators of climate stability.

Dr. Ed Dotteridge shares alarming news:

"At the maximum, we were missing about 2.7 million square kilometres of sea ice... that's terrifying." [02:45]

Wendi further elaborates on the potential consequences:

"If we just lose Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, it's 13 meters of sea level rise." [17:00]

Michael Hing adds a touch of humor amidst the gravity:

"Good. That'll take out my house." [17:20]

4. Scientific Evidence and Models

To assess whether tipping points have been crossed, scientists employ various methods, including ice core drilling and advanced climate modeling.

Dr. Sarah Das from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution describes the arduous process:

"It's not all romance when you're out there working night and day with your small team... trying to get the work done." [25:19]

Through ice core analysis, scientists can trace climate patterns back hundreds of thousands of years, providing insights into how current changes compare to historical shifts.

Wendi summarizes the scientific approach:

"Scientists, they'll drill down through the ice and then keep going until you get to the dirt below... they found, like, a poppy seed and an insect eye." [27:24]

5. Possible Consequences and Misconceptions

A major theme is the misconception surrounding tipping points. Many believe that crossing these thresholds means immediate and uncontrollable climate catastrophe.

Siva Wang clarifies:

"There is no tipping point beyond which Mother Earth wrestles control of the whole climate system away from human beings and proceeds to punish us for our sins." [36:27]

Michael Hing grapples with the implications:

"So, is there anything that can happen in the next... Is there anything we can do that could possibly help any of this?" [32:07]

6. Hope and Action: Is There Still Time?

Despite the grim outlook, the episode emphasizes that it’s not too late to take meaningful action. Even if some tipping points have been crossed, efforts to reduce emissions can still mitigate the most severe outcomes.

Wendi highlights optimism:

"We can build seawalls. And we can actually get a handle on our emissions so we don't heat up the climate as fast as we have been." [34:58]

Dr. Sarah Das adds:

"Even once we've hit a tipping point... that gives us a lot more time to adapt and prepare." [35:34]

7. Conclusion: Navigating the Climate Crisis

The episode concludes with a balanced perspective, acknowledging the severity of climate change while encouraging proactive measures.

Wendi wraps up with a touch of humor and determination:

"I've actually. I've kind of started to think about tipping points a bit... Look at me now. I am making your lives bad right now." [38:25]

Siva Wang reinforces the message:

"Humans have their hand on the thermostat, and that's not going to change." [36:46]

The final takeaway is clear: While some climate tipping points may be approached or even surpassed, continued and intensified efforts to reduce emissions and adapt are crucial.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• "Did we just cross the tipping point when it comes to climate change? How screwed are we?" — Wendi Zuckerman [00:01]

• "At the maximum, we were missing about 2.7 million square kilometres of sea ice... that's terrifying." — Michael Hing [02:45]

• "There is no tipping point beyond which Mother Earth wrestles control of the whole climate system away from human beings and proceeds to punish us for our sins." — Siva Wang [36:27]

• "Humans have their hand on the thermostat, and that's not going to change." — Siva Wang [36:46]

• "We can build seawalls. And we can actually get a handle on our emissions so we don't heat up the climate as fast as we have been." — Wendi Zuckerman [34:58]

• "Even once we've hit a tipping point... that gives us a lot more time to adapt and prepare." — Dr. Sarah Das [35:34]

---

Final Thoughts

"Have We Crossed the Climate Tipping Point?" is a compelling episode that navigates the complex and often misunderstood concept of climate tipping points. Through engaging dialogue between Wendi Zuckerman and Michael Hing, enriched by expert insights, the episode underscores both the urgency and the avenues for hope in addressing climate change.

For those seeking to understand the nuances of climate tipping points and their implications, this episode offers a thorough and accessible exploration.

Transcript

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Hi, I'm Wendi Zuckerman and you're listening to Science versus Today on the show. Did we just cross the tipping point when it comes to climate change? How screwed are we? And to add a little comedy to this drama, I've invited my mate, Australian comic Michael Hing, to the show. Hi, Michael.

[Michael Hing]

Hello, Wendy. When you say to bring some comedy to this, is this a hilarious topic? Cause I do feel like a lot of people listening to this will just broadly be bummed out.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes. No, I mean, there are a lot of reasons to be bummed out. Let's just quickly go through a couple of them. For one, it has been weirdly, some might say freakishly hot recently. We've just been seeing month after month of record breaking heat. And I know even for people like mildly following climate stuff, you'll be used to hearing record breaking heat, but is just seriously, if you look at the graphs of this year and last year, the temperature of the globe, like the average global temperature just jumped.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah. I have seen some news stories about that.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah. And temperatures were actually supposed to have dropped, but August numbers just came in and it's still really hot.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah. There's no. A decade ago, you would occasionally get these like, hopeful climate stories where I'd be like, oh, my goodness, they've invented these new plastic balls they can put on the top of water or something and that'll save us. Or like, hey, have you heard about all these seaweed pills we can give cows? And that'll. And like, those stories have really dried up in the last decade, haven't they? Like all the stuff we were like, let's really pin our hopes to this.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

I know. Where, where are they now? And if you'll bear with me for just one quick doomsday story.

[Michael Hing]

Of course.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So Dr. Ed Dotteridge at the University of Tasmania in Australia studies Australia's sea ice, which is this layer of frozen ocean that surrounds Antarctica.

[Michael Hing]

Okay.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And he told me that for ages the sea ice would melt in summer and then refreeze in winter in this very predictable pattern. It was like a heartbeat.

[Michael Hing]

Well, every year, boom, boom, boom.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And that heartbeat had been looking like a little less healthy. But then last year, everyone was just.

[Michael Hing]

Kind of gobsmacked as a community. We were just standing there flabbergasted. What happened? What just happened?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

The ice just didn't grow back.

[Michael Hing]

It just didn't grow back. Yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

How much ice is missing?

[Michael Hing]

At the maximum, we were missing about 2.7 million square kilometres of sea ice. So that's the size of Western Australia or Alaska and Texas combined.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Whoa.

[Michael Hing]

Like, huge, huge areas of ice. And that's terrifying.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

What do you feel when you see this as a human?

[Michael Hing]

I just want to sit in a corner and cry. Yeah, it's bad. It's really bad. I think also in terms of a metaphor, calling something the heartbeat of the planet and then it's stopping.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah.

[Michael Hing]

Is, like, pretty powerful.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah. Yeah. And I think now with all this crazy heat and these, you know, really bad things happening across the planet, there's all of this talk that we're sort of on the brink of a tipping point. And that is actually what today's episode is all about. There's just these headlines saying, you know, we're so close to the tipping point. A UN official this year said, we've got two years to save the planet. And so, Michael, when you read or you hear stuff like, you know, we're on the brink of a tipping point, what do you think it means?

[Michael Hing]

I would guess it means that, like, we are at a point in the history of the planet where we will not be able as a species to reverse the effects of what we've done. And it'll create, like, a. I don't know, like, almost a whirlpool effect. It'll get faster and faster, and the deterioration of the environment will be beyond our control. And even if we stopped all carbon emissions tomorrow, it's like the catastrophe has already. It's already underway and cannot be stopped. Like a runaway train.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And when you, like, watch docos or news reports about tipping points, what you described is exactly what I feel. So this. This is like an example.

[Michael Hing]

We're near the tipping point. Things are getting bad. They're worse than we thought.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

If tipping points are crossed, that could spiral beyond human control.

[Michael Hing]

And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And so today on this show, is the Earth truly on the brink of a tipping point? And are things getting so bad that the climate is about to spiral out of our control? Okay, we are going to go on a grand adventure on this search. We are going to sink a boat. We're going to travel to the ends of the Earth. We're going to drill a massive hole in Greenland until we find out.

[Michael Hing]

And actually, you know what? I will. Not just for, like, good radio craft, but also for my own personal sanity, I will remain committed to the idea that there is possibly light at the end of the tunnel.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

It's all coming up. This episode of Science Versus is brought to you by Ford There are few pickups more iconic than the F150, and the 2024 F150 Lightning truck is no exception. With an EPA estimated range of 320 miles with the available extended range battery, it's the only EV that's an F150. Visit Ford.com to learn more. Excludes Platinum models. EPA Estimated Driving Range based on full charge. Actual driving range varies with conditions such as external environment, vehicle use, vehicle maintenance, high voltage battery age, and state of health. There's no better feeling than a personal win. And the State Farm personal price plan can help you do just that. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts, and savings and eligibility vary by state. Welcome back. Today on the show, comedian Michael Hing and I are working out if we just crossed a tipping point.

[Michael Hing]

And so far, things have been. Frankly, Wendy, I'm not putting this all on you, but it's been pretty grim so far.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

All right, time for some fun. So the term tipping point gets bandied about a lot. Every time something bad happens in terms of the climate, it's like when near the tipping point. When near the tipping point. I kind of might have led you there in our intro, but this kind of like grides the gears of a lot of scientists because when scientists talk about tipping points, they're actually talking about this incredibly cool and very particular thing. And I talked about them with Felicity McCormack at Monash University in Australia.

[Felicity McCormack]

I mean, personally, I find the science of tipping points just so fascinating. Like, devastating and fascinating. It's this wow. Like, this is how the earth works.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So to find out how the earth works and what a tipping point really is, Felicity was like, let's start with an analogy.

[Felicity McCormack]

So backstory 2020 lockdowns. I'm zooming, reading books to my niece, and one of the books was who Sank the Boat? By Pamela Allen.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So as Felicity's reading this book, she realizes it's an excellent depiction of a tipping point. So in this book, picture it, you've got a bunch of animals.

[Felicity McCormack]

So there's a cow and a donkey and a sheep and a pig and a tiny little mouse.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Can I ask which is your favorite of the characters in who Sank the Boat? The cow's quite delightful, though.

[Felicity McCormack]

But the sheep, the sheep is knitting.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

The sheep is knitting. So you've got all these animals. The cow the donkey, the pig, the sheep with his little knitting needles. And they all decide to jump into a small rowboat. One by one they jump in.

[Felicity McCormack]

First the cow, then the donkey. And as each animal jumps in, the level of the boat drops a little lower, drops and drops and drops, until finally the tiny little mouse jumps in and the boat sinks.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So the mouse sank the boat. Now in the book, the animals just kind of collapse into the water. They're all very good swimmers.

[Felicity McCormack]

All the animals survive. No one was hurt filming this book.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah, you'd hope so. What a horrifying children's book it would be if it was about animals piling into a boat and then all of them drowned.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Who drowned? The animals. But to put this all into the context of climate change, you can imagine that the weight of the animals is the heat from all the greenhouse gas emissions that we're putting into the air. And as it gets hotter and hotter, the animals are piling on. The boat can somehow hold on. Like it hasn't sunk yet, but it is dropping a little bit further and a little bit further, but not sinking. But then all of a sudden, mouse jumps in, tiniest bit of heat and bam, the boat sinks. And so that is the tipping point.

[Michael Hing]

Okay.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So you can think of it like a temperature threshold, and once we pass it, what happens next leads to an irreversible and self perpetuating change. So that means that even if no other animals jump into the boat, you get like, no more warming.

[Felicity McCormack]

The boat is still underwater, like once.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

It'S inundated, goes down and down and down until it hits, until it hits.

[Felicity McCormack]

The bottom and it's sunk.

[Michael Hing]

Can I ask a question?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes.

[Michael Hing]

If all the animals fall out and they swim away.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes.

[Michael Hing]

You know, the boat itself, that'll sort of pop back up, right?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Mm. The thing is that the carbon dioxide that we've currently been putting into the atmosphere, it's going to stay up there for gener and generations. And so it's still gonna be hot methane, which is another greenhouse gas that we are currently putting into the atmosphere that will stay in the atmosphere for about a decade before it goes away. So that is good. But most of the heat that we are putting into this planet, it's not gonna go anywhere for a really long time.

[Michael Hing]

Okay.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

One scientist told me that, you know, we've often got this view with climate change that someone's gonna come and like magic our way out of this and make it all better. But the ide tipping points is that like, that boat is sinking. Once you've Crossed the threshold. There's really no coming back. So here's how Ed put it. He's the guy that studies sea ice.

[Michael Hing]

There is no way to go back from that decision. That's what a tipping point means. It's an irreversible change. You change something in the climate system so fundamentally that we can't get it back.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So, Michael, in this analogy, do you want to have a guess? What's the boat?

[Michael Hing]

Ooh. I would say the boat is meant to be the climate.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Planet Earth.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah, like the environment we live in.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

That's sort of what I had thought, too. And Dr. Siva Wang, who's at the Breakthrough Institute in California, he says a lot of people seem to think that the climate of planet Earth is the boat.

[Siva Wang]

And it comes up in the question that I and every climate scientist I know get all the time, which is, are we screwed? Have we crossed the point of no return yet? So I think that's how everyone imagines climate change to be. Where it's a cliff and beyond a certain temperature threshold, then all hell breaks loose.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So, for example, you sometimes see these headlines that the temperature threshold, the tipping point of Earth is like 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels. Have you heard, like, about this number 1.5 C?

[Michael Hing]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That, you know, 1.5 degrees above, like before the loom was motorized or whatever.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

I don't know. So the number came from the Paris agreement, which is where all these countries came together and said, we've got a goal to limit the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels, which they say is 1850 to 1900. Um, it's a bit after the power loom was invented, but anyway, so this number 1.5 degrees Celsius. It's been great to have a goal like this, a clear target to talk about, but now it's been reinterpreted as the tipping point of planet Earth. Yep, Some irreversible threshold for the whole climate. Now actually, according to Some measurements, for 13 months in the past 14 months, we have actually been over 1.5 degrees Celsius. Like, we are like August. We are living in a 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels.

[Michael Hing]

You know, like, that is. That is such a. That is such a bummer on Brat Sommer. You know, we're all having a great brass summer, Wendy. And then.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Okay, okay. But the thing is that this idea that the climate of planet Earth will fall off a cliff once we pass 1.5C. That is not right. So here's Saber.

[Siva Wang]

People think that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a tipping point for the Earth. And people, for example, have this mistaken idea that, you know, we're down to like, maybe like six or seven or eight years left to save the climate. But that is absolutely wrong.

[Michael Hing]

Okay.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And the even better news is that planet Earth is actually not the boat that's sinking. Yeah.

[Siva Wang]

So the planet doesn't have a, you know, a tipping point.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah. So this, like, neat and tidy and devastating story that we think that, like, the world will hit this specific temperature, this doomsday clock moment where, bam, the planet slides into irreversible climate chaos. Like, that is not right.

[Michael Hing]

So what's the boat? What's the boat?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

The boat is stuff on planet Earth. Big stuff.

[Siva Wang]

So like the Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So Antarctica actually has two different ice sheets, east and the west. And each of them are like their own boats. So we think that they tip at different temperatures.

[Michael Hing]

Right.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Other tipping points are like, warm water, coral reefs. They've got their own tipping point, the amoc, which is like this huge current system, plays a very important role in weather patterns. That's another thing that can tip. So there's like all these different tipping points on planet Earth.

[Michael Hing]

So wait, what you're telling me is that each individual system, you know, getting into a death spiral loop will not necessarily. And life as we know it on planet Earth.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes.

[Michael Hing]

But all I envision now is this, is this flotilla of sinking boats.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yep.

[Michael Hing]

And that any one of them could go wrong because of our mistakes we're making.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

But so now the question becomes, when are they gonna sink?

[Michael Hing]

Right, Right.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Like, when are they gonna start to tip? And I wanna zoom in on the ice sheets, and these are these, like, huge chunks of ice. And basically crossing their tipping points would ultimately mean that they slide into a state where they melt and melt and melt until possibly they've completely melted.

[Michael Hing]

And then if the Antarctic ice sheets melt and Greenland ice and they all melt.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah.

[Michael Hing]

What are we? Is it Waterworld? Like, is it Kevin Costner Waterworld?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So if we just lose. So Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are the ones that are on the table for now. For now. For now. If we just lose Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, it's 13 meters of sea level rise.

[Michael Hing]

Good. That'll take out my house.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah. So 42ft. For our American audience, say goodbye to chunks of large chunks of New York, Miami, Shanghai, the Netherlands, a ton of Bangladesh. Not only that, there are then fears that the fresh water that comes from all of that melt will then enter the oceans and muck up the currents. And if you read the news, it sounds like we are on the brink of crossing those tipping points.

[Michael Hing]

Oh no.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

But is that true?

[Michael Hing]

Well, hopefully you'll tell me after the break.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

This episode is brought to you by Ford. I'm here with our editor and electric vehicle owner, Blythe. Yes, I'm recording inside my Ford F150 Lightning truck to chat about the Ford Power Promise. What's that? It is Ford's commitment to getting electric vehicle drivers started with confidence. When you buy or lease one of their electric vehicles, you get a complimentary home charger and standard installation. Wow. That's pretty impressive. Which models are included? The Ford Mustang Mach E F150 Lightning and E transit cargo van. You can visit FordPowerpromise.com to learn more. Must purchase or lease a new Ford F150 Lightning Mustang Mach E or E Transit cargo van vehicle from a participating ford dealer between October 1, 2024 and January 2, 2025, to be eligible to receive a one complimentary Ford charge Station Pro. Ford Charger model may vary based on availability with complementary home installation or B2000 bonus cash. No trade in required offer not available to fleet or commercial customers. Complimentary home installation must be performed through qmerit Electrification LLC at a residential location with a dedicated electrical meter. Restrictions may apply based on structural and electrical limitations. Installation must be completed by June 30, 2025 for all offers. Must take retail delivery from an authorised Ford dealer's stock by January 2, 2025. See your Ford dealer for details and terms.

[Siva Wang]

What's 2fa Security on Kraken? Let's say I'm captaining my soccer team and we're up by a goal against, I don't know, Soda Springs fc. Do we relax? No way. Time to create an extra line of defense and protect that lead. That's like 2fa on Kraken. A surefire way to keep what you already have safe and sound. Go to kraken.com and see what crypto can be. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss. Cryptocurrency services are provided to U.S. and U.S. territory customers by Paywood Interactive Inc. PWI DBA Kraken View PWIS [e-mail] legal.

[Michael Hing]

Disclosures Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer which is apparently a thing. Mint mobile unlimited, premium wireless. How many? 30 bit to get 30 a bit to get 20. 20, 20. Better get 20. 20 a bit to get 15. 15, 15, 15. Just 15 bucks a month. So give it a [e-mail] Switch $45.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees, extra speed slower above 40 gigabytes.

[Michael Hing]

You detail wanna shop Walmart Black Friday deals first.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Walmart plus members get early access to our hottest deals. Join now one year annual membership shop.

[Michael Hing]

Black Friday deals first with Walmart plus.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

See [e-mail] welcome back. Today on the show, we're looking at tipping points. Next stop, the ice sheets. So we're going to find out when will they tip? And I'm here with comedian Michael Hing.

[Michael Hing]

Hello.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Hey, Michael, can I ask, like, what.

[Michael Hing]

Is the actual process of an ice sheet uncontrollably melting? Like what happens? It's like it starts to melt and then what is it about the water and the temperature? That means it's all over.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So it's different for different ice sheets. But let's just do the Greenland ice sheet. So with the Greenland ice sheet, picture this like big dome of ice. But ice can behave like a fluid. So here's Dr. Felicity McCormack again.

[Felicity McCormack]

The ice sheet actually spreads under its own weight. So like honey.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Right.

[Felicity McCormack]

As you warm it up, it kind of like spreads across the table.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So if you imagine at the top of this ice dome, this honey ice dome, there's a couple of things going on. So the air at the top of this icy dome is colder than the air at the bottom. Sure. And because the higher you go, the colder it gets. Like if you climb a mountain.

[Michael Hing]

Classic, classic outside an airplane.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Very cold, very cold. That's right. The higher you get, the colder it gets. And so the idea is that as it melts from the top, it'll just shrink because it'll be like melting and melting and melting.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So the worry is that as this ice sheet melts, it's getting shorter, further and further away from the cold air and into the warmer air.

[Michael Hing]

Yep.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

That's going to make it melt faster. But then not only that, what will happen is because now you're imagining the whole thing sort of moving from the bottom. It starts to stretch out and move out into the coastline.

[Michael Hing]

Ah. And so then more portions of it will be like at sea level or whatever.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes.

[Michael Hing]

Oh, no, the thing about sea level is like the sea that's Liquid water.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

That's liquid.

[Michael Hing]

That's liquid.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

That's right. And so basically what scientists are trying to work out, when they work out the tipping point of Greenland is like the temperature that tips that whole process into self perpetuating cascade.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah, yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So will you come on an adventure with me as we explore how scientists get to this point?

[Michael Hing]

Yes.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Okay. So one thing you could do is look at satellite data and see how the ice has melted in response to climate change.

[Michael Hing]

Sometimes you see those on the intern.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes.

[Michael Hing]

And it's never good.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

It's never good.

[Michael Hing]

It's like, hey, here's a picture of like, you know, the world in 1963 or whatever. And did you know most of the world was ice caps? And then they compare it to like they go, hey, and then last Tuesday we took this photo and it's like, oh, it actually turns out Santa lives in a desert. It's the North Pole. Now it's just sand.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Obviously not that bad. It's not that bad. But we've been losing ice. We've been losing ice. Now from this scientists can tell like, yep, ice is sensitive. This isn't good. But it can't tell us if we're on a tipping point. So to get to that, we have to go deep into our past. And Michael, where we're going, we don't need roads. So Dr. Sarah Das at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution flies off to this vast cold mountain of ice. We're heading to the Greenland ice sheet.

[Sarah Das]

You'll fly in to a place where no one set foot ever before. And as you fly up over the edge, you're just going over the most dynamic and colorful and exciting features. That ice is like nothing else on the planet really. It's melting, it's breaking, it's, you know, it's like lava, but it's cold. And then you fly up over these, just bluest of blue lakes and these raging rivers and the whitest white snow. Yeah, it's extraordinary.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Zara is out here in this majestic landscape and what she's doing is drilling what are called ice cores, which I thought sounded very romantic.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah, I don't, No, I don't. I don't even. No. What do you mean? What do you mean?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Well, Sarah agrees with you.

[Sarah Das]

It's not all romance when you're out there working night and day with your small team, sleeping in tents on the snow and melting snow for water and eating dehydration. Like you're not always so enamored with the ice cores, just trying to get the work Done. And you not get too much frostbite and not get the drill stuck.

[Michael Hing]

What has happened in your love life, Wendy?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

I don't know. Drilling ice cores, going back in time. Look, Sarah set me straight. And so what she's doing is basically to paint a picture of this industrial work that she's doing is she's pulling out these, like, giant cylinders of ice. You can sort of imagine coring like a giant cold apple. And scientists like Sarah are drilling deep into the ice because the deeper you go, the older the ice is.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah, I've heard about this. And you can look at the different, I guess, layers of ice and then you go back and back and it's like, oh, my goodness, did you know, like, 250 years ago it was just pure water or whatever?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So it's not like 200 years. So scientists can go back, like hundreds of thousands of years.

[Michael Hing]

Oh, wow.

[Sarah Das]

There's ice cores that go back a million years. Right. So I call it like this magic time machine. It's not magic.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Right.

[Sarah Das]

I mean, science isn't magic, but there is something magical about what we've learned.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And so Sarah calls it a magic, not magic, science time machine. Because in the Earth's lifetime, there were times when it was, like, way hotter than it is today and the ice sheets had completely melted. There were other times it was much cooler. And so scientists could analyze these ice cores, like tree rings to see, like, what was going on with the ice sheets when the Earth was at different temperatures. And Sarah could see when it came to Greenland, that nearly 10,000 years ago, when the climate was only like a little bit warmer than it is now, that parts of the Greenland ice sheet had significantly shrunk.

[Michael Hing]

Mm. So does that mean. So when someone like Sarah looks at this, they probably think that's where we're headed.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah, it's a clue. It's a clue. And then, so there's other clues. This is a really cool clue I wanna tell you about. So scientists, they'll drill down through the ice and then keep going until you get to the dirt below. And that in Greenland, that dirt is at least 400,000 years old. Wow. And what they can see in that, in that dirt, this was reported just this year, is they found, like, a poppy seed and an insect eye.

[Michael Hing]

Wow.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

From an insect that presumably would have been flying around 400,000 years ago when there was no ice sheet. Do you want to see a 400,000 year old insect eye?

[Michael Hing]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Here we go.

[Michael Hing]

Ooh. It's like kind of like A classic hexagonal kind of print that you would see in a fly's eye if you zoomed in. But a chunk of it is missing, which I guess after 400,000 years you'd expect some deterioration.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

I mean it's pretty well preserved, right?

[Michael Hing]

Yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And they actually say in the paper that it's possibly a fly.

[Michael Hing]

Hey, I know my insect eyes.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

But an insect eye can only get you so far. So just quickly. To understand what tipping points are, scientists also use climate models, which you've probably heard of. But what they are are these like computer simulations, very detailed computer simulations of how we think these ginormous hunks of ice melt. And basically researchers will take them and then make the temperature beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep. Go up and up and up and up. And then they look to see like basically when the boat starts to sink.

[Michael Hing]

Uh huh.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And so you put it all together. Thank you for coming on this long garden path journey with me.

[Michael Hing]

Here we go, here we go, here.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

We go, here we go.

[Sarah Das]

Come on.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Okay, you put it all together. You got the ice cores, you got the satellite data, you got the computer models. What do we know? When will the ice sheets tip? So a recent study that got a lot of attention looked through a ton of studies and it estimated. Now you know Michael, these scientists are trying their darndest here.

[Michael Hing]

They are trying their darndest.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

They have tried so hard to understand that temperature that's going to make the whole thing tip.

[Michael Hing]

And remember, the stakes are ice sheets melt.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yep.

[Michael Hing]

Sea levels rise 13 meters.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

That's right. OK. That's right. OK. That's right. OK. But in this paper they gave a range. So best case scenario. Let's start with best case scenario. They said the tipping point of Greenland is. The Greenland ice sheet is 3 degrees above pre industrial levels.

[Michael Hing]

Okay.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Which could be under current projections at the end of the century.

[Michael Hing]

Okay.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

75 years away.

[Michael Hing]

I'll be dead by then. I mean that's not, that's very selfish for me to say that, but that.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Was an honest reaction in the moment and that's all we need. The West Antarctic ice sheet, by the way, roughly the same.

[Michael Hing]

Okay.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Okay. So that was best case scenario.

[Michael Hing]

Best case scenario, end of the century.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Okay. Worst case scenario. Greenland ice sheet has a tipping point of just under 1 degree above pre industrial levels.

[Michael Hing]

Oh, so we've already tipped. We're post tip.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Post tip. Ah, well, we're Santartic ice sheet as well.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah, well, I mean seems this has put like this now that I know that, a lot of the laughing and joking we did before will seem insensitive. The apocalypse is upon us. And, like.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Well, I guess that leads. We can't. We're not gonna end here. We're not gonna end here. Cause then the question is, that should.

[Michael Hing]

Be the end of the episode.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

No.

[Michael Hing]

Just you and I in stunned silence, feeling incredibly helpless.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Is that how you're feeling in this moment?

[Michael Hing]

I did not realise that there's a chance we would already pass the tipping point.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah.

[Michael Hing]

And if we have passed a point where any of us can do anything, I mean, you sort of retreat to nihilism, right? It's like, well, what's the point? Nothing matters. You know, should I even be paying $8 to offset the plane ticket that I. You know.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah.

[Michael Hing]

Does any of it matter?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

I mean, probably don't pay that $8. Right.

[Michael Hing]

What do you mean? Wait, do you mean because of tipping point or just in general?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

I mean, surely they're a scam. Right? Well, continue with your thought process. That's for another episode.

[Michael Hing]

So is there anything that can happen in the next, whatever, I don't know, 50 years, 2 years, 100 years? Is there anything we can do that could possibly help any of this?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes, yes, yes, yes. The thing that I think tipping points bring out in people is this sense of like, we have lost control, that boat is sinking. After all, this is an irreversible. The state of that ice sheet has shifted and now it's going to melt and melt and melt.

[Michael Hing]

That knitting sheep, it's doomed.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

That's right. That's right. But. But when I asked, like, every scientist, I spoke to a lot of them, and I was like, so does this mean game over? And they were all like, no, no.

[Siva Wang]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. It's not game over. There's. At no point do you stop fighting.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Because even if we've crossed the tipping point of Greenland or the West Antarctic ice sheet, and we might not have.

[Felicity McCormack]

Right.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

We might not have a lot of scientists I spoke to who thought maybe we still have time, but even if we have crossed them, what we do now, it could matter a lot.

[Michael Hing]

Hmm.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So I talked about this with Sarah and she said that there's this big misconception out there that once we cross a tipping point, climate collapse happens right away. I mean, you think about Hollywood movies and everything happens fast. Ice sheets melt, your house is underwater.

[Sarah Das]

By Sunday, like 20 years or so ago, Right. That you're probably familiar with this movie, the Day After Tomorrow.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes, yes.

[Sarah Das]

That was like a Hollywoodization of, of the shutdown of the amoc. Everything flash freezing over. I mean, it was crazy.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Right. And then again, we have the don't look up where it's like you have.

[Sarah Das]

The don't look up.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

The metaphor of climate change was an asteroid coming in.

[Sarah Das]

Very much so. Yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And like tipping points really fit into that. Right.

[Sarah Das]

But it's not an asteroid.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So even if, worst case scenario, we have crossed the tipping points of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, it would take probably more than 1,000 years, maybe even 10,000 years, for them to completely collapse. So you were not particularly worried about Something that was 75 years away, right?

[Michael Hing]

No. So what you're talking about there is completely liquid ice sheets, the 13 metres of sea level. Yeah, that's 13 metres of sea level rise. Yes, but the seas don't have to rise 13 metres for our lives to be profoundly changed by the climate.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Right, right, yes. And as they melt, sea levels will rise. But the fact that this is happening slowly is actually really important because it means that we have time to adapt. People can move to higher ground, which is actually something that's already happening in the us. They've moved like thousands of people to higher ground.

[Michael Hing]

Like away from the.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah, yeah. Like away from flood prone areas.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And we can also build seawalls. So if we have, you know, hundreds, thousands of years, we can do something about it.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And not only that, we can actually get a handle on our emissions so we don't heat up the climate as fast as we have been. And if we do that, we might also slow down how fast these ice sheets melt. I talked about this with Sarah, because if we keep heating up the world, these ice sheets will melt faster. We think even once we've hit a tipping point.

[Sarah Das]

Absolutely, absolutely. That we know, even once we've hit a tipping point, even if Greenland reaches some point where it's just going to melt away, you know, if that could take 10,000 years versus 5,000 years, that gives us a lot more time to adapt and prepare. You know, we can buy ourselves time. So there's never a point at which we can be like, oops, all right, too late, no need to do anything.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

So I guess to all of this stuff about, you know, we have two years left to save the planet, or at the start of the show, how you said that you thought maybe tipping points meant that if we stopped all carbon emissions, it wouldn't matter. The catastrophe's already here. I mean, the truth is that it still does matter. Our carbon Emissions. There really is. There really isn't a planetary cut off. And so he is Dr. Saver Wang.

[Siva Wang]

There is no tipping point beyond which Mother Earth wrestles control of the whole climate system away from human beings and proceeds to punish us for our sins. From a scientific perspective, that's just not how it works. And so what I tell people is humans have their hand on the thermostat, and that's not going to change.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And so with our hand on that dialogue, at least in control of how much hotter it's gonna get, what it all really means is just forget this idea of runaway climate change. It's more like the more emissions that we put into the atmosphere, the worse this gets, and the less emissions, the better it gets.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And I know you know this, but that is true. Like, tipping points. Whether we hit tipping points or whether we don't, climate change is here. Now. Here's Sarah on this.

[Sarah Das]

You don't need tipping points to scare me. You can take them off the table. And the sea surface temperatures are warming off the charts. Heat waves killing thousands of people. We have coral reefs dying. We have glaciers melting. Never mind tipping points. We have sea level rising, flooding all over the place. You know, rise of diseases. I mean, all sorts of effects.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Fires, fires.

[Sarah Das]

Right. You name it. You wake up any given day and open the newspaper, no matter where you are in the world, and you can see an example of a climate change impact.

[Michael Hing]

Yeah.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

And maybe, maybe just to cap us off here, like, given all of these terrible things that are happening to the planet right now because of climate change, I've actually. I've kind of started to think about tipping points a bit. Like that distracted boyfriend meme.

[Michael Hing]

Oh. And the guy's looking over his shoulder.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yeah. And everyone's, like, looking at the tipping points and being like, when are they gonna come? And then, like, the girlfriend in the back is like, I'm climate change and I'm right here. Look at me now. I am making your lives bad right now.

[Michael Hing]

When did. When did Science Versus Become a podcast that describes, like, memes from, like, eight years ago?

[Wendi Zuckerman]

It was a big one.

[Michael Hing]

Oh, no, look, hey, everyone knows what you're talking about. And it's, to be clear, it was a very effective communication tool.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Well, good. Well, good. Thank you. And I know. I know this has been a little bit depressing, this whole episode. I know. But I do want to say that there is some good news when it comes to how we are solving this, how we are getting off fossil fuels. I mean, because I had thought we were really just like twiddling our thumbs while Rome burns. But I think there is some little bit of hope. There is some exciting stuff happening with renewables. There is some good news.

[Michael Hing]

Here we go.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

But we're going to save it for a different episode.

[Michael Hing]

Oh, that I'm not on. Great. Ok, thanks, Wendy. Thank you.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

What we're going to do for our how to Stop the Climate Crisis episode is it's gonna be a Q and A. So we're getting listener questions which could include should you. Your question number one, should you get the $8 carbon offset? So we've got a panel of experts to talk about renewables, how we get to net zero questions. If you've got questions about can we actually solve this, you know, that's.

[Michael Hing]

I'm actually gonna have to listen to that episode then. Because if you've listened to this one and you're thinking to yourself, oh my goodness, it's all completely screwed and you're feeling like I am right now, which is exhausted and a little bit betrayed by your friend Wendy, frankly, then the really the only remedy to that is listening to the next episode where I mean, frankly, Wendy, you've got some work to do.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

That's. Yes.

[Michael Hing]

To regain my trust.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Yes. So if you have any questions then you can go to our Instagram sites, Underscore Vs. You could ask me on my TikTok at Wendy Zuckerman. Or you can send us a video or voicemail to our wonderful senior producer Meryl. Her email is meryl hpotify.com if you're in the US there's a number to call. We're going to put all of this in the show notes. Really, I'm really excited to know what your questions are.

[Michael Hing]

Well, thank you so much for having me, Wendy. It's been a real pleasure.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

Thanks for coming, Michael. See you again soon. This episode has 107 citations in it. So if you want to read more about Tipping Points, just go to our show notes and there's a link to our transcript. And while you're looking at the show notes, you can see all of the ways to contact us if you've got questions about renewables and solving this climate crisis. If you want to hear more from Michael, he has not one but two podcasts. There's free to a good home and his long running Dungeons and Dragons podcast which is called Dragon Friends. This episode was produced by me, Wendy Zuckerman, with help from Meryl Horn, Rose Rimler, Akedy Foster Keys and Michelle Dang. We're edited by BLYTHE Terrell Fact checking by Diane Kelly Mix and sound design by Sam Bear Music written by Bobby Lord, Bumi Hidaka and so Wiley. Thanks to all of the researchers that I spoke to. Oh my gosh. Thank you so much. I spoke to so many climate scientists and it this is just a handful of them. Professor Andrew Dessler, Professor Christina Hulbe, Dr. David Armstrong McKay, Professor Tim Lenten, Aditya Lola, Dr. Elizabeth Maroon, Dr. Jan Nitzpen, Professor Johannes Quas, Dr. Jonathan Leung, Dr. Kirsten Schell, Dr. Maddie Rosevar, Michelle Dvorak, Dr. Robin Lamboll, Dr. Zeke Housefather, Dr. Sam Krever, Flower Zhang and others. An extra thanks to the Zuckerman family and Joseph Lavelle Wilson. Science Versus is a Spotify Studios original. Listen to us for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We are everywhere. If you are listening on Spotify, then follow us and tap the bell icon and then you'll get notifications when new episodes arrive. I'm Wendy Zuckerman. Back to you next time.

[Michael Hing]

Hello, this is Michael. At one point, Wendy's editor thought that it sounded like I was genuinely mad at Wendy. So I guess this is just like a voice message from me after the fact saying that I wasn't mad at Wendy. We're friends and we've known each other for a very long time and I was just joking around, so I wasn't mad at Wendy is what I'm telling you.

[Wendi Zuckerman]

I can always hear my mom in the background. Good.

[Michael Hing]

Now can I go now? Is that okay?