Science Vs – "Manifesting: How Powerful Are Our Thoughts?"

Host: Wendy Zuckerman (Spotify Studios)
Date: December 11, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Science Vs tackles the pervasive cultural phenomenon of manifesting—the belief that by thinking positively about your desires, you can make them reality. Host Wendy Zuckerman and senior producer Rose Rimler examine what evidence underpins or debunks these popular claims. Through interviews with psychologists and a review of key scientific studies, they separate fact from feel-good fiction, and explore whether you really can think your dream life into existence.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Is Manifesting? (00:15–03:29)

• Manifesting has become mainstream, with influencers swearing it works—from jobs to relationships and even material goods:
  • “I manifested my green card, a nespresso machine.” (01:34)
  • About a third of surveyed people believe in manifestation’s power.
• Influencers’ advice typically: focus on what you want, imagine you have it, and act as if already fulfilled.

2. Personal Manifesting Experiments (03:29–05:37)

• Wendy and Rose attempt their own manifestations:
  • Rose aims for a successful open-water swim race.
  • Wendy tries to banish rain every time she needs to ride her bike, drawing on her childhood belief she could "make clouds disappear."
• Acknowledgement that focusing on what you want could subtly influence your actions, raising the question of whether there's something to this approach.

3. The “Best Possible Self” Exercise (05:53–09:37)

• Interview with Dr. Laura King (University of Missouri):
  • Dr. King’s early 2000s study: Participants wrote about their “best possible self” for 20 minutes, four days in a row:
    • “Imagine that you have succeeded at attaining all your life goals… your happily ever after…” (07:20)
  • Result: Immediate mood boost and increased optimism, with effects lasting weeks.
    • “People walked out of that lab feeling fantastic.” (07:38)
    • “A review paper called this exercise ‘a viable intervention for increasing optimism, positive affect, health and well-being.’” (08:17)
  • Limitation: No data on whether these positive imaginings led to real-world success. No long-term follow-up.
    • “Did you make it come true? I have no idea.” – Dr. King (09:48)

4. Manifesting vs. Reality: What Does the Data Say? (15:04–18:46)

• Interview with Dr. Gabriela Oettingen (NYU):

  • Longitudinal study of grad students: Those frequently fantasizing about career success were less successful years later.
    • “The more positively these university graduates fantasized about their success in work life, the less successful they were two years later.” – Oettingen (16:21)
    • They submitted fewer job applications and earned lower salaries than less frequent fantasizers.
  • Another survey: Believers in manifesting more likely to take risky financial investments (e.g., crypto), and more likely to declare bankruptcy.

• Key Insight:

  • Fantasizing feels good, but can backfire if it replaces actual effort.
    • “If you already feel accomplished, what do you do? You relax.” – Oettingen (18:58)
  • Physiological evidence: Blood pressure drops during fantasy (relaxed), perhaps reducing motivation.

• Important Distinction:

  • General optimism (believing things, in general, will work out) correlates with better outcomes; fantasizing about specific desired results does not.

5. Science-Backed Goal Setting: What Actually Works? (20:16–23:32)

• To achieve goals, science suggests a method called “mental contrasting”:

  • Hack #1: Imagine your desired goal and realistically consider potential obstacles.
    • Works better than just positive thinking or focusing only on hurdles.
    • “This technique has gotten people to do more exercise, to deal with issues at work, and even gotten children to do their homework…” (21:40)
  • Hack #2: Use “If-Then” planning statements:
    • Example: “If I forget my pill, then I will use a condom next time.” (22:03)
    • Results: Teen girls using this method halved the rate of pregnancy compared to control.
    • A meta-analysis showed a small-to-medium positive effect on goal achievement.

  “People using these two hacks…achieving their goals using these methods.” (23:12)

6. The Role of Coincidence & Confirmation Bias (23:41–25:09)

• Wendy’s bike rides stayed dry, but she and Rose chalk it up to increased awareness and confirmation bias.

• If you want something badly, you look for evidence it’s come true and ignore counter-examples.

  “Classic confirmation bias for sure.” – Rose Rimler (25:09)

7. Human Nature: Making Meaning from Coincidence (25:24–28:16)

• Dr. King shares a personal anecdote (“I caused an earthquake by singing a high note!”) to illustrate how humans naturally link random events to themselves.
  • “That’s how human cognitive processes are…something big happens, and we’re like, whoa, what did I do?” – King (28:07)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On societal beliefs:
  “Manifesting is real.” (00:32)
• On mood benefits:
  “People walked out of that lab feeling fantastic. Dr. King, I love your research. I love this study.” (07:38)
• On manifesting’s downside:
  “The more positively these university graduates fantasized about their success in work life, the less successful they were two years later.” – Dr. Oettingen (16:21)
• On confirmation bias:
  “You would just notice moving forward every time that it did supposedly work, and you might not notice every time it didn’t really work.” – Rose Rimler (24:49)
• Eureka moment:
  “I caused an earthquake, right?” – Dr. King (26:48)

Important Timestamps

• 00:15 — Introduction to manifesting and its popularity
• 03:29 — Wendy and Rose set personal manifestation challenges
• 06:27 — Dr. Laura King introduces “best possible self” research
• 09:48 — Admissions: no evidence manifesting brings real change
• 15:04 — Dr. Gabriela Oettingen explains manifesting backfiring
• 21:00 — “Hacks”: mental contrasting and “if-then” plans
• 23:47 — Wendy’s bike experiment outcome and discussion of bias
• 25:24 — “I caused an earthquake!” story, meaning-making in coincidence
• 29:12 — Rose’s swim race “manifestation” results

Conclusion

Science Vs reveals that while manifesting and vivid fantasizing about your goals can give you a temporary happiness boost, there is no good evidence that positive thinking alone brings dreams to life. In fact, too much fantasizing can backfire, reducing real-world success. The most effective, science-based approach to achieving goals is to combine optimism with realistic planning—anticipate obstacles and make concrete “if-then” plans. In the end, while imagining success feels good, it’s action and preparation—and a dose of realism—that help dreams come true.

For further reading, the episode references 32 citations available in the transcript’s show notes.