← Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews
Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews
5/19/26 Dave DeCamp on China, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza
00:41:16
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- [00:06]
A
You ladies and gentlemen of the press have been less than honest according to the American people. What's going on in this country?
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B
We're dealing with Hitler revisited.
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This is the Scott Horton Show.
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Libertarian foreign policy, mostly.
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A
When the president does it, that means
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B
that it is not a liberal.
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A
We're gonna take out seven countries in the years they don't know what the they're doing. Negotiate now. End this war. And now, here's your host, Scott Horton. All right, you guys. Introducing the great Dave Decant. Why, he's the news editor over@antiwar.com and he's also the host of the podcast Anti War News, which is available on Spotify and YouTube and all of your other RSS feed type podcast catcher devices and software applications. Welcome back to the show. How you doing, Dave?
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B
I'm good, Scott. Thanks for having me. Good to be here.
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A
Good. Very happy to have you. Listen, I don't want to take up too much your time on too many topics, but I probably will. Can we start with China? Trump went and they had delayed the thing because of the war in Iran, but then he finally went and had his big meeting with Chairman Xi. So what great deals were struck by the President on his big trip?
- [01:34]
B
Yeah, so it was certainly, you know, a big trip. You know, optics wise, seeing Trump and Xi together and all the kind of elaborate ceremonies and the fact that Trump brought along, you know, his top level officials, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, and also a whole gang of CEOs. But as far as I could tell, there were not any major deals reached. There was some trade stuff, some commitment to purchase more goods from each other, but nothing too major. And when it came to Iran, it looked like nothing. You know, there was some speculation that Trump might try to get China, some commitments out of China to work harder to open the Strait of Hormuz. But was what was interesting was that one of the days that Trump was having talks with Xi, the IRGC announced that they're letting a whole bunch of Chinese ships leave the Strait of Hormuz. So there was kind of a situation where she could tell Trump, you know, not our problem right now. So I thought that was interesting. And then the other big thing that I kind of focused on more with my coverage@antiwar.com was the, the Taiwan situation. A few months ago, in December 2025, the Trump administration approved $11 billion in weapon sales for Taiwan, which is a pretty big number. And that that was more than was approved during Biden's entire four years. And despite what many people say he was very hawkish on China in those four years. And the Trump administration drew up another $14 billion arms package for Taiwan for him to approve. But after this trip, Trump says that he's holding off on it. So it's just kind of interesting that him and Xi talked about it. And according to the Chinese readout of the meeting, you know, she gave him a very strong warning, saying that, you know, Taiwan is the most important issue between the US And China, something that they've been saying that they say consistently, but also warning that if it's mishandled, there could be conflicts and clashes over Taiwan. And I like to think that one result of this war with Iran is that at least there's some recognition now that the US Would not stand any kind of chance against China in a war right off of its coast. And Trump basically said that in one of the interviews he did. He's like, look, it's, you know. Right. Look how far it is from us. We can't really defend it. So, you know, it'll be interesting to see if he does approve this next huge military package, because despite what, you know, Marco Rubio said during the trip, you know, they say that they're committed to the status quo over Taiwan, but what we saw over the past few years, especially with Joe Biden, was a move away from the status quo and an increase in weapon sales, military aid for Taiwan. So, you know, we're still seeing that, you know, that's. That is the policy, that. That's still happening despite kind of what. What Trump is saying. But we'll see if there's any change after this trip, because I think it seems like Trump, at least to some extent, got the message from Xi. But I kind of suspect that in a few months, we'll probably just see them go ahead with the big weapons deal anyway.
- [04:40]
A
Yeah, quite possibly. Although if it. At least on this issue, he's talking more soberly about it compared to crazy old Joe ranting that, oh, they got a war guarantee, all right, we don't care what they do. Go ahead, get us into a war. Taipei, you call the shots around here. I mean, I'm paraphrasing, but pretty close. But Trump is saying, no, I'm not telling you what I do. Going back to the ambiguity. And then I forgot how he phrased it, but he explicitly discouraged the Taiwanese from declaring independence and maybe just said, they're not doing that, which is just fine with me, or, you know, this kind of thing. So, yeah. And then I don't know if there's any reporting about this or not. But it's, it's fun to speculate about exactly whose language he's reflecting when he says that, you know, it really is very far away and we may not really have the ability to intervene in the case of Taiwan. I mean that could just be what she had just told him. Like, wow, you're really handsome. By the way, Taiwan is a lot closer to us than it is to you. Right. Or is maybe that's General Kane speaking. Right. The, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff reflecting the advice of the military that like, well sir, honestly, if it really came down to it, we're not in a very good position here or what, you know, I don't know you know about that. Have they talked about that?
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B
No, not, not that I'm aware of. But I mean I feel like I have heard that from kind of the military establishment. Like, you know, that that's something that they talk about how China's built up this missile. You know, these missiles in that are in China, in the mainland, that, that would be used in this conflict. And one thing that we've seen the US do is they're deploying a new missile system, the Typhon missile system to the Philippines. And this was developed after they quit the INF treaty. And they actually just tested one and fired a Tomahawk missile in the Philippines, which is a pretty big provocation aimed at China. Clearly that missile was meant to be a message to China. But at the same time, like when you talk about the missile capabilities of China and the US in on the first island chain or whatever you want to call it, I mean it's very clear that China has the advantage there. So I'm sure that that's something that is being discussed on the US side, that this is right off their coast and they have all these missiles. Yeah, we have some missiles that we've sent over there, but it's really nothing compared to what China has.
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A
Yeah, so I mean to go back a couple of years, but just a couple, they had all these war games where they talked about and Lyle Goldstein, who had been at the Naval War College there, you know, wrote all about this and people can find his articles about it where in a real war where we really try to prevent China from taking Taiwan, we would lose hundreds of planes, thousands of sailors lose. Anyway, it would be, you know, their supersonic sea skimming anti ship missiles have a longer range than our F18s and their anti aircraft missiles have enough of a range to neutralize our midair refuelers and our submarines can only hold so many torpedoes before they gotta, you know, limp back to Guam to rearm and turn around again.
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B
And just.
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A
The whole thing is cost prohibitive. And they talk about. I just read a thing the other day. I'm sorry. Geez, I wish I knew where I. What the source of it was. But they were comparing, you know, the total number of Chinese ships to American ships, and it's more. But how. Theirs are really not designed for patrolling the planet Earth the way ours are. They're just there for coastal defense. And they got more than enough for, you know, what they call anti access area denial, which is, again, just. That's what the Americans call it. And it's saying, yes, their posture is defensive, strongly defensive, but defensive against our intervention over there.
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B
Yeah. And I mean, it's similar to the situation in Iran when, you know, it's obvious the US Has a more powerful military than Iran, but Iran has been preparing for this specific fight, you know, for. For how many decades, you know, in the Persian Gulf to. In the Strait of Hormuz, you know, in that region. And that's what they developed all these missiles for, like, specifically for that purpose. And on the, you know, with China, same thing, but it's also. It's China, you know, it's not Iran. It's a much bigger power. So, yeah, I'm hoping that this. This notion that the US can stand any kind of chance in a war there has been, you know, dispelled quite a bit here. And then I know one thing, you know, if, you know, Elbridge Colby, who's one of the. He's the Pentagon policy chief, you know, he's a big China hawk, and he wrote this book, this book, I'm blanking on the name of it, but essentially the argument was, you know, we have to deny China the ability to take Taiwan and, you know, flood Taiwan with weapons. And a big thing that he's pushing is for Taiwan to increase its military spending. And we did just see Taiwan. They're adding 25 billion to their military budget just to buy US weapons. But one thing that he's about is he's kind of against unnecessarily kind of stoking tensions by proclaiming things like, oh, yeah, we will defend Taiwan or supporting Taiwan independence. So that's why I kind of think we're still going to see this push toward arming Taiwan and building up US Forces in the region. Colby was also the one that essentially was responsible. I don't know if, you know, I wouldn't say he was the one solely responsible, but he's a reason why the, the Trump administration, the first Trump administration pulled out of the INF treaty to develop those missiles that they could send over there. So I still think we're going to see, like, the weapons go there, the buildup continue. But I think when it comes to like, kind of unnecessarily stoking tensions, like Nancy Pelosi going over there, I don't think we're going to see big things like that on the diplomatic front.
- [10:41]
A
Yeah, well, you know, I'm sure Taiwan's, you know, military systems are enough to, you know, certainly count in Beijing's calculations on whether to attack them or not. You know, that was another thing, speaking of Lyle Goldstein, where he went there about a year ago and he was like, dude, there's nothing going on here. There's no coastal defense anywhere. The Chinese could all just sail right up and walk right ashore, and there's no one organized to stop them right now at all. So he was saying, you know, the posture of the Taiwanese government was essentially not taking the threat seriously at all. And, but I mean, they already have a bunch of F16s and whatever it is enough to put up at least some kind of show of force, show of defensive force in the event of a full scale attack. But it seems like the Chinese would be stupid to do it that way. They could just encircle the place and sort of declare that you have been absorbed in a way that no one can really intervene and do it, you know, much more softly.
- [11:40]
B
But yeah, and I think that's something that China has really shown. You know, I mentioned the n Nancy Pelosi trip back in 2022 in response to that was the first time China did these like, blockade drills around Taiwan. And now they do them occasionally, usually in response to something like they just did one recently after Trump approved the $11 billion in weapon sales. And I mean, they could, you know, say, oh, we're doing drills today and encircle Taiwan. And then just say, actually this is a blockade now, so what are you going to do about it? And I mean, like, what really, what, what would the US And Taiwan be able to do? You know, and so I think that's also been a big wake up call for people in D.C. hey, I don't
- [12:20]
A
know about you guys, but I don't even have health insurance anymore. The system is so rigged and the prices are so high. Insurance for just my wife this year cost as much as it did for both of us last year. Something like that. Pretty close, anyway. And so I've just opted out. I don't even have health insurance right now, but I signed up with Crowd Health and it is a great alternative to health insurance. And what it is is it's just crowdsourcing. You help crowdsource other people's bills and they help crowdsource yours. The more people who sign up, the less any of us have to chip in to help the other guys out. And it just helps drive down costs for everyone. Oftentimes you can negotiate a cash price. If you're not paying with insurance, you can get a good discount from your health care providers and then you can crowdsource those bills through CrowdHealth.com it works really great. I was skeptical at first, but Tom woods explained the whole system to me and it's really great. And I do hope that you will look into it. And if you use the promo code Horton when you sign up@crowdhealth.com then you will be charged only.99amonth for the first three months. Get a great discount there@crowdhealth.com use the promo code Horton. And now. So Trump said, but I read that the Chinese did not say that. Yeah, China agreed with me that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, which, I mean, inclined to just let him have it. Right. Like, it seems like he's trying to frame a thing where he accomplished something. He had a tweet, see there. Oh, and this is the top story on Anti War.com today is about. He says he was about to attack him, but then the Gulf states talked him out of it because they have a deal, they're working where Iran is going to agree to not make nuclear weapons, which is a huge mark of progress compared to where we were before, I guess, Dave. But I'm willing to pretend that for the President's sake, if it's enough to get him to call off the rest of the intervention here. But what do you make of what's going on?
- [14:23]
B
Yeah. When it comes to everything with Iran and you know, you mentioned with the, the China aspect, I mean, as far as I saw, because Trump and the White House, they made a few claims about what she agreed, you know, that, oh, the Strait of Hormuz must not be militarized and that Iran shouldn't charge a toll and that Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon. As far as I saw the Chinese, you know, readouts and statements, they didn't say anything about Taiwan or the Strait of Hormuz. But yeah, even if they agreed that Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon. It's like, what is that? What does that really mean at this point? But now. So the situation with Iran, I mean, I was basically of the belief that after this trip, Trump was probably going to start bombing Iran again. It seemed like everything was pointing in that direction, mainly just the lack of progress in the negotiations, which are just kind of indirectly sending messages through, through Pakistan. And as far as I could tell, there still hasn't been any real progress there. And so what happened yesterday, you know, all the reporting was that Tuesday Trump was going to convene his top national security officials to discuss the options, you know, against Iran. And then. So yesterday. So today's Tuesday that we're recording this yesterday, Trump says, you know, that he's holding off because the Gulf Arab states asked him, you know, basically said, give, give more time for diplomacy. And now there's two possibilities here. One is that they really did request that. And then the other one is that he really, he kind of just said that to save face because there was kind of a deadline. And this is just based on leaks to the media and stuff. But some of his own threats suggested that after this China trip, if there was no deal, he was going to bomb Iran. And, you know, he could just be trying to save face by saying that the Gulf Arab states requested it. Though I, I do think that that is probably what they're telling. They've been telling the US Is that, you know, since the dust has settled after this bombing campaign, they don't want that. They know, you know, if the US And Israel start bombing Iran again, what's Iran's options for escalation is really lighting up the oil infrastructure in these countries and potentially closing the Bab El Mandeb Strait, shutting down the Red Sea, which is something that the Saudis desperately want to avoid, because obviously they have a big Red Sea coast and they can, you know, their oil exports and stuff have not been nearly as disrupted as the. The other countries just on the Persian Gulf. But, you know, so tr. He delayed it for whatever reason or, you know, did he actually have plans to attack on Tuesday? We don't really know. But I still think the same situation kind of exists where, like, there's no, what deal is there to be made here? Because, you know, we've seen some signs that the US Might be willing to allow some uranium enrichment in like, 10 years or something. But then is this Trump administration, the one that just put a FDD guy on their negotiating team, are they gonna lift all the sanctions on Iran? Are they gonna, you know, let them charge a toll for the Strait of Hormuz or give them reparations for the war. There's just so many other issues that, like, I just can't see a deal happening. So I'm still of the opinion, even though, as kind of insane as it sounds, because we've seen a lot of leaks from the Pentagon that actually Iran still has most of their missiles and they have a lot of ways they can hit us. If we restart this bombing campaign. I'm. I still think it's probably going to happen, you know, whether it's in days or weeks, I don't know.
- [17:42]
A
All right, now. So the thing about that is, you know, you do hear, for example, there's the, the clip of Lindsey Graham saying, we just have to hit their electricity and their oil and stuff, we just have to hurt them more and then they'll give in. I forgot exactly what he said. But essentially, you know, the perils of dominance again, if we hit them and it didn't work and we hit them again harder, eventually they'll have to give in because we're America and they're not. So, like, what's the deal here? Trump said something like that, too, maybe a week ago or so. Why won't they give up already? Why won't they? It's. You're supposed to surrender now, right? But they're just intransigent, those Iranians. They just don't want to do that. And so I get their thinking, but at the same time, I mean, it must be the case, right? Just the ceasefires lasted this long, longer than the war itself so far. Right. Which with its exceptions, of course, but I mean, it, if not some general, Trump's own head must have got through to him at some point that hitting him hard didn't work. And really, if we restart the war, we're not going to be in any better position at the end of another few weeks of airstrikes than we were, you know, yesterday. So he's got to know that. I mean, I know he's kind of full of his own narratives a lot and things like this, and he must be very frustrated that he can't get what he wants out of them, but he's got to know that, geez, how many, what percent of their missiles and launchers did you say survived? Ah, hell, what's the point of this, right? 70, 75%? All that we did only degraded their missile force by a quarter. Hell, what's the point of trying to do this again? We killed the Ayatollah, we got his son. That didn't work. So, you know, I'm not saying he's the wisest leader or whatever, but he's got to have realized even at the point that he called the ceasefire that he wasn't going to get better results through more escalation, right through putting in troops. Whoever it was talked him out of it, if only himself talked him out of trying to put troops down in there to seize the uranium or to reopen the straight or any of that. I know there are theories about the attempted seizure of uranium being covered up with the shoot down story or whatever. I don't know about that. But overall, I mean the idea was they were going to send in a huge force to try to seize all the uranium. They didn't do that. So he already, you know, chickened out. Which not to mock him for it, he should have, thank goodness, you know what I mean? But like when I was on the Joe Rogan show, he kept asking me, so what do you think is going to happen? And I didn't raise a possibility that he's going to restart the war because I guess I could have and should have covered that base or whatever. But I guess my thinking is just whatever just makes no sense to do it, but it made no sense to start the damn war in the first place. So you got me there, Dave. You know, I don't know.
- [20:40]
B
Yeah, no, honestly. And I think then that's what I keep kind of going back to because there were so many good arguments for not starting this war in the first place. And then it happened and I was still kind of, I mean I still am in like disbelief that this actually happened. But so, you know, I am thinking that if this does end, if, if it doesn't restart, you know, I, I think what something that, you know, Trita Parsi saying as a possibility here with that I was initially kind of skeptical of is just that it kind of ends without any resolution. The US Pulls back and you know, they both kind of claim their victory and, and, and you know, I don't think that's a situation for a long term peace. But I do think maybe it's possible that something like that happens, you know, for the next few months or so because kind of this, what this state that we're in now I don't think can last much longer, you know, with the U. S enforcing this blockade, attacking these oil tankers occasionally. Some drones have been flying. You know, it's not exactly clear who, who's behind some of the recent drone attacks and things. But is there a possibility of Trump just kind of backing off without really saying it? I, I guess that's possible. But yeah, there are, you know, he, he, some of the people that he has in his ear, including you mentioned Lindsay Graham, but also this guy, Mark Thiessen, who's apparently been talking to Trump a lot. He's saying, oh, you just need two weeks. Bomb him. You know, two weeks, and you could take it all the targets, and then, then we win. And Trump referenced that and what, you know, I forget exactly what he said, but you could tell it's clearly coming from Thiessen. He said something about, we just need two weeks. And I don't know if you saw
- [22:17]
A
which, by the way, that guy he comes from, I believe he was on the Bush nsc, but then he made his big public profile writing for the Washington Post in favor of torture and defending the Bush torture regime. That was his whole original Persona, was he was, Mark, torture ain't that bad. Decent or whatever, you know.
- [22:35]
B
Yeah. And this is one of the people Trump is really listening to here. And, and he's also saying, you know, oh, because the kind of narrative from the Trump administration is like, there's some, you know, there's the hardliners that don't want to deal, but then there are others who, who want to deal with us, which I don't really think is. Is true, but Thiessen saying, well, then kill the ones who don't want to deal. Like. And Trump is, has, like, reposted him saying that. But I think, you know, when it comes to the. I think there is a possibility. I don't know if you saw Brad Cooper, the, the head of U.S. central Command, his testimony, he seems like he's willing to do whatever Trump wants him to do. Now, Dan Kane, I'm sure is telling him, you know, something at least closer to the truth. But so I think he, you know, and I think it's clear that people in the Pentagon are probably telling him, you know, we, we have no recourse here. You know, we, we can't just bomb them into submission. And I think that's clear from the leaks, you know, that we're getting. But at the same time, I'm sure there's people in there that are telling him, you know, you know, all we need is another few weeks, really hit them hard, and that'll. That'll show them. I don't think Trump is gonna want, you know, this current situation that we have with the straight still effectively closed. I don't think he wants to be in this situation. So I think either one of two things are going to happen. Him backing away or escalating.
- [23:54]
A
Yeah. And he could completely back away. But the problem is that does not guarantee at all that the Iranians will. And in fact, they might really be dicks about it just to try to get some further concession out of the United States like sanctions relief or whatever.
- [24:11]
B
So, yeah, I think they might see this as their opportunity to get those things.
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A
All right, this episode of Scott Horton show, brought to you by the books I wrote. You can see them behind me there. Enough already. Fool's errand. And then enough already. And provoked. And then of course, one might have fallen down there. But I got Ron Paul, the great Ron Paul. Scott Horton show interviews and hotter than the sun. You see that one back there over there? That way hotter than the sun. Time to abolish nuclear weapons that sell interviews. I did all about nukes and really great stuff and I busted my ass on these things and, you know, I've gotten a really great reception on all of them. They all been endorsed by Ron Paul. And Daniel Ellsberg endorsed two of the three I wrote. He would have endorsed the third one. I know, but he died too soon, unfortunately. Tucker Carlson says that Provoked is the definitive account. In fact, that's what Glenn Greenwald and Aaron Mate said about it, too. The definitive account of the new Cold War with Russia and the war in Ukraine. So maybe check that out. All right, listen, so I know you got to go soon, but let me ask you real quick here. Just about. Ah, geez, I want to ask you about Iraq first. Yeah, well, okay. We do, you know, a little bit of Lebanon and Gaza at the end. Just sort of the current state of things real quickly. But if you could, I have read that there were something like 400 attacks by Iraqi forces against American troops stationed there. I don't know if they included this American attack on the poor Iraqis who found the secret Israeli base there in the south and all that fighting or what. But apparently it's, you know, the PMUs, the bada brigade and Iraqi Hezbollah and Khatib, whatever, all those guys have been attacking American forces there. So I wonder what's the extent of that as far as the damage, Any casualties and responses? In fact, I know there was some targeting of the Green Zone as well as bases in Iraqi Kurdistan. I'm always worried about Iraq War four breaking out or five, or whichever one now.
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B
Yeah, yeah. And I mean, it was, it did basically break out during the, you Know when the US and Israel were bombing Iran, as far as I know, no Americans were killed by these drone attacks. There were a few Americans were killed when a C130 went down in Iraq. I don't really know what the cause of that was, but there were definitely American casualties, American troops were injured. The, the base.
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A
There's a new story about those tankers this morning and I think the Times, I'm sorry I didn't read was about the, the potential there that that was caused by anti aircraft fire.
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B
Okay, I gotta check that out.
- [27:01]
A
I haven't seen that Times, man. I'm sorry, I, I did get stuck reading that stupid damn newspaper this morning.
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B
Yeah, I mean that's what I suspected at first because there like at the time, I mean there's so much happening in Iraq, so many drone attacks. There were also missile and drone attacks from Iran and then lots of attacks from mentioned the pmu, like the Shiite militia factions, both, you know, the US bases, embassies, oil, US oil interests, you know, are coming under drone attack.
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A
And 400 is a lot, man.
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B
400 is a lot. Yeah, but that, you know, I don't know the exact number but that, that sounds, you know, again considering all the stuff I saw. But, and then another thing that didn't really get much attention was the US air strikes against the PMF in response which killed dozens of them, dozens of their guys and also at least seven Iraqi soldiers from the regular military were killed by a US airstrike. And so of course this is inflaming, you know, the political situation in Iraq. Obviously there's so many people who want the US out of there and are really just infuriated by this whole situation where essentially the US still maintains control the government because they control their oil revenue and, and their access to the dollar. Like they could crush their economy like very easily. And so you know, if that's another thing, like if this full scale war restarts, Iraq's going to blow up again even, even more potentially. And I know the US so one thing that happened kind of quietly during this is the US pulled out of Syria completely. Unfortunately we can never like celebrate these things because they left because the ALA guys are now in charge. But I know they're think about how
- [28:47]
A
the Kurds had to withdraw from Raka and turn it back over to Al Qaeda and at least the locals they quoted were relieved that well, at least it ain't ISIS and at least it ain't the Kurds, you know.
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B
Yeah, yeah, they were like integrating now with the New Syrian government, the Kurds. We'll see how that all works out. But. And so the, the US Troop presence in Iraq is, is pretty low now. I understand it. It's mainly in Herbal in Iraqi Kurdistan. And like, I don't even think there's barely any troops in Baghdad, like in the Green Zone. So I think, you know, another result could be kind of getting. Hurrying that withdrawal along even more
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A
where Trump was like, intervening pretty heavily in favor of picking this businessman instead of Maliki and making sure that Maliki was not renamed Prime Minister there.
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B
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, that was. Yeah, they started that last year. This was. They were like threatening these things that I mentioned, the oil revenue and all that. And you know, that, that is how like, they're able to. That. You know, if you remember back in 2020, when Trump killed Soleimani, the Iraqi parliament voted to, you know, kick the US out. And they essentially said, no, we're gonna, you know, they're just, they're all. They can hold the country hostage with this economic power.
- [30:12]
A
I'm not sure all the different calculations, like if you go back to even the W. Bush years on Ibrahim Jafari and Nuri al Maliki back then and also during Barack Obama, on numerous occasions, America essentially compromised with Iran. That, okay, let's go ahead and keep Moloki where they agreed. And in fact, when I had Alawi had the first opportunity to form a government in 2010, Vice President Biden picked up the phone and told him, forget it, pal, we're sticking with Maliki. But out. And which is amazing that Alawi was the guy who actually had the most votes, but he did. But America, that was essentially Iran's guy that America said, well, at least we know him or whatever, I guess. But this time it seems like they're really trying to marginalize the Supreme Islamic Council. But I think this guy's tied to Dawa anyway. You know, they're trying to get like the least Dawa type guy, but they're all Dawa guys.
- [31:09]
B
Yeah, yeah. It seems like they're really trying to ramp up the pressure on them, especially after this whole, you know, everything blowing up like that. And then, I mean, the other big thing you, you mentioned it that we just learned about Iraq is apparently the Israelis set up some secret military bases there. The initial report said that they set one up before the war, but the New York Times just had a new report saying that they had a second base that they set up before the June 2025 war, the 12 Day War, and that the, the A Shepherd who apparently found it, was killed, which we assume by an Israeli airstrike or something. And Iraqi troops went out to investigate, and they were also bombed.
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A
And that was the one from last year. What's the story about the shepherd? Is that right?
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B
I. No, no, that was recent. That was also.
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A
That was the more recent one.
- [31:58]
B
Yeah, yeah, I guess that one, you know, because they're used to kind of seeing helicopters flying out around there, but I guess there was more military activity than usual, you know, that got people's attention. So that's another thing. I mean, you know, from the perspective of a Iraqi Shiite Muslim militia guy, you know, you learn that. I mean, they're gonna. I think if. If the war restarts, you know, they're really gonna. They might ramp everything up against the US Even more if, you know, if they have the ability to.
- [32:30]
A
But we've been bombing Iraq for 35 years, dude.
- [32:36]
B
Yeah, that's how old I am.
- [32:37]
A
For anyone keeping track.
- [32:40]
B
Yeah, it's crazy.
- [32:43]
A
Ninth grade.
- [32:45]
B
Yeah. So, you know, that's definitely an area to keep an eye on. And it didn't really get. It doesn't really get much attention, you know, like, what happens inside Iraq, because it always, like, you know, when Gaza first, the. The after October 7th, there was all these, you know, attacks on US bases there and in Syria from these Iraqi militias. So it's like always, you know, kind of. Those tensions are always brewing.
- [33:10]
A
Right. Okay, listen, man, I saw the headline. Magic number. 3,000 dead Lebanese in the recent attacks here. I don't know what percentage of those are Hezbollah fighters, but I'm willing to bet it's pretty low. And then on top of that, we've seen just the mass destruction of all of these towns and villages in southern Lebanon. Are they just outright annexing everything up to the Lutani River?
- [33:39]
B
Now, the Israelis, I mean, that's essentially what. What they said. I mean, you know, you have, like, Smotrich, who kind of says things more explicitly and over, you know, saying that. Calling for annexation and settlement, basically. But, you know, the. What. What Israel Katz, the Defense minister, has ordered is the occupation of all of South Lebanon, south of the Latani River. And, you know, they don't control all that territory, as I understand, but they're continuing to move in, and they're, you know, we've seen, you see some drone footage from some of these villages in the south, and it just looks like Gaza. I mean, they've just completely. They're just completely destroying the place, and they have no intention of stopping this. And this is another thing that according to all the latest reports, it, Iran has consistently kept a ceasefire in Lebanon as a demand for a deal with the US Like a real ceasefire in Lebanon. And it's clear this is something that's just not going to happen at this point. You know, like they, they, they, they still pretend like some media coverage of, of the situation in Lebanon. They still act like there's some kind of ceasefire here. I mean there, there's, this isn't even like an Israeli style ceasefire where just Israel is bombing and the other people aren't. This is, you know, this is war that, that's continuing in southern Lebanon. We've started to see a lot of Israeli military casualties from these Hezbollah drones that they're having trouble with. They apparently use a fiber optic cable so that they're not vulnerable to the electronic jamming and stuff like that. But also just, you know, heavy Israeli airstrikes both in south Lebanon, in Beirut, in eastern Lebanon and can, they're continuing to order the evacuation of villages and things and, and moving on the ground. So it goes on. And Trump said at one point that Israel was prohibited from launching further strikes in Lebanon. And it was clear that either, you know, the Israelis didn't listen to him or that was just for an American audience to make it seem like he was trying to put his foot down when it came to Israel and Lebanon. But am I right?
- [35:44]
A
I saw a report at least on Twitter that said that the Israelis had issued an evacuation order for the city of Tyre.
- [35:53]
B
I, I believe, yeah, I believe so. Yeah.
- [35:57]
A
With the idea being that they're going to go in there with TNT and demolish the whole thing there too. Just completely destroy this ancient city. Another, you know, a pretty major one. Yeah, yeah, I know you got to go to, but just talk to me about Gaza for one minute.
- [36:13]
B
Yeah, so Gaza, another place where there's no ceasefire. And I have made a point, kind of just cover the daily situation, the daily attacks in Gaza just because it gets no other media coverage. And basically the situation that we're in is since October 2025, you know, there's been a de escalation obviously the Israelis pulled back to the so called yellow line which separates the IDF occupied side of Gaza from the rest of, of the territory where the civilians live and that Hamas controls and we have seen basically since then, since all the hostages were released and all the bodies were recovered. I mean during that time Israel was continuing the. But not, not to the level that they've been doing lately. They kind of escalated the Daily strikes and things and they've also taken more territory on the ground. And Netanyahu just admitted this and this is a clear violation of the ceasefire deal. He now they control 60% of Gaza. It went from 53% to 60%. They moved that yellow line further west. And a lot of the attacks that we've seen lately target the police force in Gaza because they're trying to just disrupt Hamas's control. And you know, for a while I thought that they were going to try to, you know, go for restart, you know, full scale bombing campaign and ground operations. But now with everything else happening in Lebanon, I think that they, this, they kind of just want to keep this as a status quo for the moment, just under Israeli occupation where they're free to do, you know, their attacks and they're not facing any real threat from Gaza. You know, a few IDF soldiers were killed in the first months of the ceasefire deal on the Israeli occupied side. There was some Hamas fighters that were like trapped and they had, there were some clashes there. But since then, I mean, there's been no attacks on them.
- [38:01]
A
Yeah, it's got to be the most miserable place on earth. I know people are just living in tents and living in rubble. I'm reading, you know, pretty regularly from the different human rights groups complaining about the massive rodent infestation there. Little kids can't sleep at nights, at night because the rats can chew right through their tents and haunt them and just. Yeah, and yeah, yeah, it's really because we're the ones footing the bill for this. That's why, you know, of all the miserable places on earth, this is the one that's our worst responsibility too.
- [38:36]
B
So, and that's something that Trump made the US more complicit in this because he established this so called Board of Peace and like this military base in southern Israel that's manned by U.S. troops who are supposedly overseeing the ceasefire. And, and you know, it's US and Israeli policy to not allow reconstruction in the part of Gaza unlivable, to force
- [38:57]
A
them all to either just lay down and die or just go drown in the sea or somehow finally give in, cry uncle and move to Egypt or something, which of course they're not going to do that part. They might just lay down and die though.
- [39:10]
B
And one, just one important point on this is that, you know, we see because the US and Israel, they're saying that Hamas is violating the deal because they haven't disarmed, but it's just important to point out that they never signed an agreement saying that they would disarm. Both Hamas and Israel agreed to Trump's 20 point, you know, peace plan for Gaza as a framework for negotiations. But the deal that they signed was just establishing a ceasefire and the hostage release, and then they were going to negotiate the disarmament and the full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza at a later date. So there was two points there. You know, Hamas didn't really want to disarm, but Israel also didn't really want to leave Gaza. So it's just important for people to understand that Hamas never signed a deal saying that they would give up their weapons. That's what they're blaming, you know, you see, the US And Israel, they're blaming everything on, on that. But it's the continued, you know, Israeli occupation, Israeli attacks that are like a real violation of the deal.
- [40:04]
A
All right, thank you, Dave. Appreciate your time, man.
- [40:07]
B
Thanks, Scott. Thanks for having me again.
- [40:09]
A
All right, you guys, that's Dave DeCamp. He's news editor@antiwar.com and check out his podcast. Every single day it's anti war news. The Scott Horton show is brought to you by the Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom, Robertson Roberts Brokerage, Inc. Mundo's Artisan Coffee, Tom Woods, Liberty Classroom and APS Radio News. Subscribe in all the usual places and check out my books, Fool's Errand, Enough Already. And my latest, Provoked How Washington Started the New Cold War With Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Find all of the above@scotthorton.org and I'm serializing the audiobook of Provoked at scott hortonshow.com and patreon.com Scott Hortonshow Bumpers by Josh Langford. Music, intro and outro videos by Dissident Media. Audio mastering by Podsworth Media. See y' all next time. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with a message for everyone paying Big Wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying. No judgments. But that's weird. Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try. @mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per
- [41:27]
B
month Required intro rate first 3 months
- [41:28]
A
only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com.