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A
You ladies and gentlemen of the press have been less than honest according to the American people. What's going on in this country?
B
We're dealing with Hitler revisited.
A
This is the Scott Horton Show.
B
Libertarian foreign policy, mostly. When the president does it, that means that it is not a liberal.
A
We're gonna take out seven countries in the years they don't know what the they're doing. Negotiate now. End this war. And now here's your host, Scott Horton. All right, y', all, introducing Larry Johnson again on the show. He's former CIA, but I like him.
B
Yeah, don't hold that against me.
A
Nah. Well, some of you retirees are. Okay, guys, 21, that's his website, sonar21.com and you should subscribe to his email list so you get one in your email every morning telling you what the hell is the dang deal. And it's very helpful stuff. US and Iran will not meet in Switzerland. Israel succeeded in derailing the negotiation already, or did they? I don't even know. What's the latest news today? Is there any latest news today about developments here and hopefully some good news about maybe we'll have the signing ceremony next week instead or anything like that. What do you know?
B
Yeah, that, that's like that line from the, the, the Charles Dickens the Christmas Carol where Scrooge looks at the ghost Marley and says, marley, speak comfort to me. Marley responds, I have none to give.
A
So Johnson.
B
Well, yeah, look, the Israel escalated its attacks on in southern Lebanon and the, the very first paragraph of the memorandum of understanding that Donald Trump signed and President possession of Iran side stipulates that United States and Iran will ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. Remarkable. That was that, that was one of Iran's red lines and Trump conceded it. And, and so that means no Israelis in southern Lebanon because that constitutes a violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Yeah, Israel wasn't going to said, well we're not going to abide by that. So they stepped up their attacks in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah retaliated, killed four Israelis yesterday and including a very senior commander, tank commander, Lieutenant Colonel. And so about three hours ago, the, the really raging battles. And then we get the news through Al Jazeera about an hour ago that the Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a 4 o' clock 4pm ceasefire. Now that is coming because of pressure the United States is putting on Israel. The Pakistanis working closely with the government of Iran and also backed up by China. They, they have communicated, let's call it some very specific threats to Donald Trump of action that will be taken that would be, to put it politely, very detrimental to Israel and detrimental to US Interests in the region. So they're, they're serious about it. The, the, the talks or the meeting that was supposed to take place in Geneva today at a place called Bergenstock. It was, it was supposed to really kick off the inertia it was assigned that was where they were going to sign the memorandum. But they decided, they advanced that with the signatures that took place on Wednesday. So this was to be really the kickoff of this 60 day period of negotiations where they're supposed to try to sort out Iran's nuclear program. Let's put the good news is they're still talking, they're behind the scenes. The bad news is it's not just the, the die hard Zionists in the Republican Party that are pushing back against Trump. You got Democrats doing it too. You know, so much, so much for the party of peace. They're, you know, instead of welcoming this, they're sitting there in different ways to just, you know, piss on Trump.
A
Including their leader, Charles Schumer.
B
Yeah. And crucially.
A
Hey guys, Scott here for Matt c.leist tax advice.com and he's a great tax lawyer and he hates the government as much as you do and he wants to help you keep your money. And his service is for small businesses and for high salary professional types who are looking for ways to protect their earnings from the national government and it's depredations. So check them out. Matt C. At agrist tax advice.com hey y' all me here for expat money.com the great Mel Thorup and of course they do their big conference every year in October but all year round they've got great advice for you such as this plan B residencies and instant citizenship. And Americans are fleeing price inflation and the police state and all kinds of things, blowback, terrorism and they're getting the hell out of the country. And if you decide that's what's right for you, then you can learn from Mel Thorp about what other countries are available to you and where you might go to protect your assets, to buy property, to even get citizenship in other countries. Learn everything that you need to know@expat money.com now so wait a minute, don't get me started on how much I hate Democrats because what spent happen you sitting there.
B
But now I hate them all, you know.
A
Yeah, I got, I got grudges man, I got a collection. But we got to stay on, on focus topic point of view thing here which is the question is this about the relationship between our president and their prime minister now? Yeah, obviously there's been a narrative building for weeks here. And hell, they even were obviously lying a year ago when they pretended there was this division when really they were just planning the strike, you know what I mean? But they've been building the idea here for quite a while now, at least since a few weeks after the ceasefire, that no, Trump is really, you know, trying to seek some kind of arrangement here. But then the Israelis have this trump card that they can just start, you know, increasing their attacks in Lebanon and ruin the thing. And that happened a few times over the last few weeks. You know, in the lead up to this thing. Now, it looked like Trump really meant it this time.
B
Yeah.
A
And, you know, it wasn't like the previous 39 times. Right. Like, on the 40th one, he was, yeah, no, we have a deal and we are kind of sign. We're signing it. We're moving forward with these talks. We're punting on the nuclear program, but we are reopening the strait and we are definitely doing this. And then Netanyahu comes in and ruins the thing. You know, I thought that Iran might tolerate the attacks yesterday, but that it would take a real campaign today to get them to call off the talks. I was wrong about that. They went, based on what had happened on Thursday, they called off the talks for Friday or the signing ceremony and all that stuff, I guess. But so then what does that really mean, dude? Like, you know, I'm always very dubious about the reports of the. Of them fighting. You know what I mean? Like, I think they tell Barack Ravid to go and write that. You know what I mean? That, like, I'll say this, but you do that or whatever. But then this seems like a pretty big one. But then am I supposed to really believe that Netanyahu is just giving Trump the middle finger and yelling fu in his face and ruining Trump's big day? Because screw you, you can't tell me what to do at all. Like, I have trouble believing that, but then again, it doesn't really make sense. Well, Trump told him, go ahead and ruin my big day.
B
You know what I mean, either.
A
So what.
B
What do you say? Well, okay, well, here's what we know that happened. Let's. Last week, a week ago, when Iran had, they drawn a line in the sand and said, any further attacks on Beirut or the suburb Dahia will result in retaliation, and Israel did it, they had just, like, it was the lip, you know, middle finger to. To the face of the Iranians like saying yeah, yeah, you can tell us what to do. No you're not. And then Iran was ramping up to, to, to strike back. And the Trump administration did intervene and said don't, don't. What will it take for us to get you to stop? And Iran basically they laid out, they said, because these were the five, the five Iranian red lines were the stumbling block that was preventing the MOU from being signed. They said immediate sanction relief. We want the assets unfrozen, we want the blockade lifted, we want our recognition of the Strait of Hormuz and we want ceasefire in Lebanon. And Trump gave it to him that that was the breakthrough. I, I've said somewhat tongue in cheek that perhaps Bibi Netanyahu deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for that, bringing that apart about because were it not for Bibi that that might not have happened. But it happened. The other thing though that was going on at the same time was the briefing that Trump got. I, I, I think it was from Chris Wright, the Secretary of Energy who came in and said we got a five alarm fire. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is going to be, it's going to be empty in about two weeks and we, we, and we can't refill, we don't have, there's not enough oil out there to refill it. And when that, when it goes empty, the price of gasoline, of oil is going to skyrocket. We've been able to manage it up for the last four months by drawing out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That's how, that's why I don't know about your area but gas prices down here in Florida have come down about 70 cents. They're still not where they were pretty 28 February when I read on your
A
site, Larry, that you said that if the, if the stores go below a certain point that then wrecks the infrastructure. They got to keep a certain amount of oil in there for pressure.
B
Yes.
A
It's actually like the inverse of the threat that they were making against Iran a few weeks ago. As long as we keep up our blockade on their blockade and they can't get rid of their oil, then their over capacity is going to break all of their infrastructure and then they'll have to give in. Well, three weeks later it's our under capacity is about to cause our infrastructure breakdown. And that was why Trump gave it.
B
Yeah, yeah. I mean and he admitted it. I was, because I'd actually had been on a podcast three hours before that with Pepe Escobar and Pepe was saying, hey, I just got confirmation from a source in the United States and he laid out this whole. Because I had written about it, but just drawing upon what was in the press, Pepe then had a source confirm it, that this was what was told Trump. And then lo and behold, Trump three hours later confirms it himself. So, you know, they're not kidding. This is. There's been a lot of whistling past the graveyard going on with respect to the oil shortage and what it really, the implications for the global economy. But it's, it's serious and we've been, we've been lying to ourselves, we've been pretending, oh, we got this under control, oh, there's plenty of oil. I mean, I've still seen people write, oh, how can you say that? We're going to be. Look at all the oil we produce. Yeah, look at what we produce. We don't produce the heavy crude that's needed to produce diesel or at least what our refineries are set up to produce diesel from. So it's just, you know, a lot of ignorance out there about this.
A
Well, you know, and on the opposite side of that, I mean, I was really kind of astounded to see how much you obviously know already. I mean, obviously you're looking up recent statistics, but you already obviously have a deep kind of knowledge of how these things work. When I'm reading on sonar 21, all of your stats about how much oil is blockaded in the Gulf, how long it's going to take to get to its various ports around the world, you know, how the backup in those deliveries are going to affect things, how the fact that they've been made to sit in the hot sun out there in the Persian Gulf for four months, what's that, what that has done to the oil inside the tankers. What? Now, I see you have a piece here about the barnacles on the propellers and this absolute, like, specialty, you know, diving and, and, you know, robotics and whatever kind of solutions are needed to get all these ships back to 100 again. And so I could tell you, like, you're looking at the recent statistics, but you know exactly where to look and which statistics really count here. And I think you said it. Best case scenario, we're somewhere near back to normal by the end of the summer. And that's if a lot of magic wishes come true.
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah. More likely we're looking at six months. And, you know, when Trump was told, hey, we've got to do something to, you know, get the oil flowing out of the Gulf. And I guess even in Trump's source. And listen, thinking it's just, okay, we say it's open and, man, the price is going to start flowing. But as you pointed out, it's not just those physical things. It's also the minds, the presence of minds, the insurance. Right now you got Iranian ships. They're, they're flying because they don't depend upon Lloyds of London, but the rest of the ship owners, they do. And Lloyd's of London is telling them, you're not moving that ship until we got a guarantee that there are no mines out there. And it was the Pentagon, they went and told Congress in like, April 15, they said, yeah, it'll take us up to six months to clear the mines.
A
Yeah.
B
So you got all of these obstacles to the flow of oil. So anybody that thinks it's going to turn around quick, not going to happen. And what's so disturbing, though, is you think that, that, that the markets are free markets and that they'd play fair. Oh, hell no. They are. It's the ultimate crooked casinos, man. They are, they're hiding what's going on. They're pretending, oh, it's all going to be great. Just put your money in here and it's not going to be great.
A
Yeah. Hey, y', all, don't forget to check out my substack. Paid subscribers get the show a day early and with no ads. And also access to the audiobook of Provoked. The first two sections are up, but there's more coming soon. Scott hortonshow.com hey, look, Scott Horton show and Scott Horton Academy Swag. It's all available right under the YouTube@YouTube.com Scott Horton show and any episode of that right there, Dan.
B
Great.
A
All right, so now. Well, I mean, there's so many consequences there in terms of, of industry and energy and, and relations and as you say, corruption. When markets have been rigged so far, one way, there's going to be a lot of people figuring out how to take advantage of all that. But as far as the ceasefire and all that goes, I mean, I saw that report this morning, and I guess Barack Ravid had it at Axios and Reuters had it that they had this new ceasefire there. But so are we to really interpret that to mean, do you think that Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told him that, look, this time I'm really pissed off, and this time I demand that you enter into a ceasefire here so that I can enter into mine or not?
B
Well, I think it's possible I do know what's going on behind the scenes militarily. So, you know, two days before the, the invade, we attacked Iran. On February 28th, the, the US military started standing up what are known as CATS, Crisis Action Teams. You had a cat at the Pentagon. You had a cat at CENTCOM in, in their operations center. You had a cat out at Andrews Air Force Base. So, and, and these were, these are staff 24 7, seven days a week. They, they're the ones that are running the, the orders, issuing the orders and monitoring what's going on. And it's all for managing, you know, managing wartime operations. Those, those have now been, those are now shut down. They shut them down first of the line earlier this week. So they're not operating. They, so the way that means the United States is no longer on this war footing. The, the one group I was told that is very, very busy trying to get it's, that is working 247 is what's called Air Combatant Command. And what is their job? Their job is to figure out how are we going to get all those F35s, F15s, F16s, A10s, how are we going to get all those back to the United States. So they're in the process really of pulling them out now. And so Trump, Trump's got some leverage with bb. He, he can pull the, he can, he can pull the Patriot missiles, he can pull the fads. He said, you want to go on your own, go on your own, but not with our stuff. And he is being advised to do that. The question is, will he go along with that advice?
A
Yeah, I mean, that's where, you know, I have to, when it comes to just speculation and inference, I have to assume that they're still just working together and there is no real divide there, you know. Well, seem like they're the best of friends, you know, I don't, I don't know. Like, how bad is Netanyahu ever going to really stomp on Trump's foot? And how mad at Netanyahu is Trump ever going to get?
B
You know, but let's, let's shift away from Netanyahu because I, I don't know. Did you see the, the comments by Natalie Bennett on the Piers Morgan show the other day? He was, he was, he said God
A
is going to curse Donald Trump. I think that was Ben Gvir said that.
B
Yes. Yeah, yeah. But here's Naftali Bennett, who's supposedly the, the lefty, the guy, you know, not a right wing fanatic like, like Bibi Netanyahu. He was excoriating Netanyahu and he was, was claiming he was going to be tougher on Iran than anything that, you know, Iran's not going to live at peace with. I'm in charge.
A
So my point, he had a reputation as a liberal. I thought he was always a right wing nationalist like Netanyahu.
B
But yeah, well, we, we've yet to hear any, any politician with any standing in Israel stand up to say, hey, this is, thank God that President Trump got this deal. They're all blasting it. So my point is that the majority of the Israeli public are just as bloodthirsty as Bibi, if not more so.
A
Even then, though, I could see. Again, I'm totally just speculating here, but it makes sense to me that Trump and Netanyahu would have had this conversation that, look, I'm gonna have to enter into this deal. Essentially, we lost the war. My military is telling me there ain't no point in starting it back up again.
B
So we're cutting and running. Yeah.
A
And so therefore, so are you. Go ahead and throw your temper tantrum in your media, go ahead and let your cabinet secretaries stomp their feet and whatever, but it is what it is. I mean, what can Netanyahu really do about it, dude? You know, he's gonna, what, attack Tehran and force Iran to hit American targets and, and drag us back into a war? Like, he's not. And, and I guess what I'm saying is I don't think that Trump would have to read him the riot act. I think that they can just, they just are friends and, and work together on this. So I don't really necessarily believe that Netanyahu is going very far off the reservation or that Trump would really have a very hard time pulling him back if he tried to.
B
You know what I mean? We'll find, we'll find out here in the next couple of hours.
A
Yeah, I mean, and it could be that, that actually we already did find out that the fact that Netanyahu is willing to bomb the crap out of Lebanon yesterday was proof enough that he was willing to tell Trump fu. But I guess I'm not quite ready to, to conclude that all the way, you know, I don't know.
B
Well, yeah, but the key difference now is prior to the, this week, the United States had a strong military presence there and was positioned that it could retaliate against Iran if necessary. Right. But, but what, what happened on June 9 and June 10. Those were the two days where Iran inflicted significant damage on US military facilities in Kuwait. Bahrain, the Prince South Air Base and Jordan. And it did so using some Chinese missiles that were being operated in tandem with Pakistani military technicians who were sitting side by side with Iran. So and that that damaged. While I haven't been read into these systems and I've been just told in vague terms that these apparently were multi billion dollar systems that the United States had in the area that were targeted and destroyed, the US Intelligence community believes the only way they could have been hit was with intelligence received from the Chinese and the Russians. And it, it did significant damage to U S capabilities.
A
I mean that's so telling, right, that Trump did not get thunderously loco angry about that and ordered the B2s back out. He backed down after that. He was checkmate at that point. Like ah hell, in fact he's in here promising a peace deal 38 times up until then. And then he began to mean it after that it looks like, well they
B
also, it wasn't announced, but it was apparent what was going on. So starting about June 1, Central Command was trying to see if they could run. They would basically put bait into the Strait of Hormones, like run a ship in there, see what if what sites in Iran along the straight of Horu or in Kemp island or in Bandar Bus would light up where, where missiles might be fired from where communication notes were that would be coordinating the movement and, and actions of Iranian troops and therefore they would then attack them. So that's, the United States started doing that and then as soon as we hit them, the Iranians would turn around and they, they were shellacking us in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. So it was in the course of that, after about 11 days of that the US realized, you know, we can't, we cannot militarily force open the Strait of Hormuz, right. Because because of what is this multi layered defense that that Iran has. So, and that, that came in conjunction then with this severe damage they inflicted on the, on the 10th of June. And, and while all that was going on on the 9th of June, the United Arab Emirates who had been in bed with the Israelis, they went, they went to Tehran, a stinsa reportedly carrying $3 billion in frozen funds that they were returning to Iran. Then the next day Qatar was there and Qatar was negotiating. And, and Cutcher's role is important because today, just about before I came on your show, they're reporting that Cutter is the one that brokered the renewed ceasefire between Hezbollah and Iran and Israel and working with Iran. So you know, there's a lot going on diplomatically behind the scenes, that is with the ultimate goal to basically push the United States out of the Persian Gulf establishment. An Islamic security presence that will be consist of Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan. So lots going on.
A
Yeah. Hey y', all, Scott here for crowd health@joincrowdhealth.com and it's just like it sounds. It's crowdsourcing for your health care costs. It's not health insurance. Who can afford health insurance? What a rig game that is. But now who needs it? The deal is simple. You help chip in and pay for other people's bills, they help chip in and pay for yours. And the more people join, the lower the costs for everyone. And it works very well. I was skeptical at first, but I had a good talk about it with my good friend Tom woods and then some of the leadership there at Join Crowd Health as well. And they explained it all to me and it does work just like a charm. And I encourage you to check it out@joincrowd health.com use promo code Horton and your monthly fee will only be $99 for the first three months. Join Crowd Health.com promo code Horton. Hey Y', all, Scott here for Moon Do Artisan Coffees. You know, they told me if I kept drinking so much coffee I would turn into some. And then I finally did, and there it is. It's Scott Horton show morning breakfast blend there from moondo Artisan Coffees. Get it? They hate Starbucks because Starbucks supports the war party. So they're Moon Do Artisan coffees and they got Scott Horton flavored coffee there. It's a Ethiopian and Sumatra mix and it's so good. And it's free to me as long as you keep buying it. Just go to Scott Horton.org coffee. All right, so one last thing here before I let you go, I gotta bust your chops a little bit about that story, what last week or two weeks ago about the nuke.
B
Yeah.
A
On either made a nuke or maybe Pakistan gave them one or something. I mean, that turned out to be right.
B
No, no, no. All I can tell you is what we were told by this Pakistani source, the other. Other things this Pakistani source told us was true. And what he, what he conveyed was this message was conveyed to Marco Rubio via the. The foreign minister of Pakistan. And they, they said one, we're going to suspend all talks on nukes. Not going to do that. We're not going to have a framework. And if you don't come back to the table, we'll do a. We'll do. Going to detonate a. We're going to do a demonstration. We're going to show you that we can't. Now, all I can tell you is that's what the source was saying. Now, was the source full of, full of crap? Maybe. Was that a bluff? Maybe. But what we know for sure is the United States took it seriously because it was right after that message was delivered that all of a sudden Donald Trump, instead of threatening to end civilization in, in Iran, was talking about, ah, you know, the, everybody, the ceasefire has sort of a different meaning in the Persian Gulf. And you know, he was talking conciliatory about Iran from May 30th up until about June 9th, June 10th. So that, that, like I said, it, it may have been not true, but the, the, the reality is the, the Trump administration believed it was true.
A
Possibly. I mean, he, Trump says a lot of things. You know what I mean?
B
Oh, no, no, but, but I'm saying, go back and look at the change in tone because he wasn't issuing the daily threats against Iran. He backed off of that.
A
I mean, on a, on a logical basis, right? Like it doesn't make sense that Iran was able to get an atom bomb together somehow without everybody knowing. And it doesn't make sense that Pakistan's going to just hand them one in the middle of a war with the United States because America's going to hold a grudge about that if they did that. And Russia and China have no interest in tearing up the last shreds of the non Proliferation Treaty and passing off an atom bomb.
B
All I can tell you is what the Pakistanis believe and what they were saying. I got you. I mean, and that, and that's, you know, some people took it that Pepe and I were, we were pushing, you know, they got it and try to insert the nuke story into it. And it wasn't that. It was just this. In fact, we had set up a new channel. It was called Power Shift and it was headed up by a Pakistani American named Zulfikar Ali. And it had Pepe and I as sort of, you know, let's call it co hosts. We, we did three shows and, and we talked about this. We were taken yesterday, actually. Well, that, no, that's now called, that's now called Transition Protocol.
A
Yeah, that was the show. That's the guy, though.
B
Yeah, yeah, but, but we had Power Shift. Marco Rubio went to Google and got it, got the Power Shift taken off because he, he called and complained to the Foreign Minister of Pakistan. He said, I thought, I thought Our conversations were confidential. Well, we didn't get it from the foreign minister of seconds. Of course. We got it from somebody who was in a position to know what the foreign minister of Pakistan was saying. But so that. That vouchs for us. We said, okay, this. Why would Rubio freak out like that if that actually wasn't true?
A
How do you know that Rubio said
B
that to the Google folk when they. When they went to find out why the hell did we get canceled.
A
Oh, I see. They said that they got a call from the State Department about it.
B
Yes. Yep.
A
Good times.
B
Yeah.
A
So you didn't know they're paying attention to you, Larry.
B
Yeah, it's kind of attention I may not want. You know, that's the other thing. But let's. Let's hope. Let's hope the piece holds.
A
Yes, absolutely. It ain't over yet. And I got a relatively good feeling about this compared to some other things anyway.
B
So. Yeah. See how at least we got an agreement.
A
Yeah, yeah, exactly. And. And as you delineated it, it includes America essentially admitting defeat, hearing and climbing all the way down on all their demands and all of that stuff. Washington, America. You know what I mean?
B
Did you catch the iron? Did you catch the irony of where Donald Trump signed the agreement? Yeah.
A
At Versailles. I saw someone had a funny meme this morning of Mark Levin saying this. His transition to hit, Larry, and is complete. Because it's Mark Levin complaining that his country has been betrayed at Versailles and
B
now he must get revenge. Good.
A
I think it was Kurt Mills, probably American conservative.
B
That's.
A
Anyways, great to talk to you again, Larry. Appreciate your time on the show, man, as always.
B
All right, my friend. Thanks, Scott. Later. Bye. Bye.
A
The Scott Horton show is brought to you by the Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom, Robertson Roberts Brokerage, Inc. Mundo's Artisan Coffee, Tom Woods, Liberty Classroom and APS Radio News. Subscribe in all the usual places and check out my books, Fool's Errand. Enough already. And my latest, Provoked How Washington Started the New Cold War With Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Find all of the above@scothorton.org and I'm serializing the audiobook of Provoked at scothortonshow.com and patreon.com ScotThortonShow Bumpers by Josh Length of music, intro and outro videos by Dissident Media. Audio mastering by Podsworth Media. See y' all next time.
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Scott Horton Show – Just the Interviews
Episode: 6/19/26 Larry Johnson on Trump’s Effort to End the Iran War
Date: June 21, 2026
In this episode, Scott Horton interviews Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and author behind sonar21.com, about former President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war with Iran. They delve into the current state of U.S.–Iran negotiations, the role of Israel in potentially derailing peace efforts, energy and oil market dynamics, behind-the-scenes diplomatic maneuvers, and the regional ramifications of the conflict’s winding down. The discussion is rich with insider insights into both the public and hidden aspects of this high-stakes international crisis.
Ceasefire & Diplomacy:
"Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a 4pm ceasefire... communicated, let's call it some very specific threats to Donald Trump of action that would be... very detrimental to Israel and... US interests in the region." — Larry Johnson [03:35]
Red Lines and Concessions:
"That was the breakthrough... Trump gave it to him." — Larry Johnson [09:22]
Israeli Sabotage Tactics:
"Am I supposed to really believe that Netanyahu is just giving Trump the middle finger and yelling F-U in his face and ruining Trump's big day?" — Scott Horton [07:57]
Political Dynamics in Israel and U.S.:
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crisis:
"We've been able to manage it up for the last four months by drawing out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That's why... gas prices... have come down about 70 cents." — Larry Johnson [10:05]
"Three weeks later it's our under capacity is about to cause our infrastructure breakdown. And that was why Trump gave it." — Scott Horton [11:02]
Logistical Challenges Post-Blockade:
"Lloyd's of London is telling them, you're not moving that ship until we got a guarantee that there are no mines out there... it'll take up to six months to clear the mines." — Larry Johnson [13:44]
Shift in U.S. Military Posture:
"Trump's got some leverage with Bibi... He can pull the Patriot missiles, he can pull the THAADs. He said, you want to go on your own, go on your own, but not with our stuff." — Larry Johnson [17:36]
Iran's Demonstrated Capabilities and U.S. Setbacks:
"Iran inflicted significant damage on US military facilities... using some Chinese missiles... with intelligence received from the Chinese and the Russians." — Larry Johnson [21:12]
Diplomatic Shifts in the Region:
UAE and Qatar have engaged Tehran directly, returning frozen funds and brokering ceasefires, signaling a broader push for a regional security structure not reliant on the U.S.
"The ultimate goal [is] to basically push the United States out of the Persian Gulf and establish an Islamic security presence..." — Larry Johnson [24:28]
"If you don't come back to the table, we'll do a... demonstration. We're going to show you that we can." — Larry Johnson [26:57]
"What we know for sure is the United States took it seriously because... Trump... was talking conciliatory about Iran." — Larry Johnson [27:45]
On U.S. and Israeli Relations:
On the Middle East Power Shift:
On Oil Market Illusions:
Satirical Moment:
Horton and Johnson conclude that while a ceasefire and framework for further negotiations have been achieved, the situation remains fragile and deeply shaped by both military reality and political calculation. Washington’s concessions and the very public regional pivot suggest a profound realignment may be underway; the coming months will test whether this tentative peace can hold amid competing interests, lingering hostilities, and economic upheaval.
For additional depth, read Johnson’s analyses at sonar21.com and revisit recent episodes with related discussions.