Managing Uncertainty As A Scrum Master, How Scrum's Rhythm Creates Stability In Unstable Times

Summary

Podcast Episode Summary
Podcast: Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast: Agile storytelling from the trenches
Episode: Managing Uncertainty As A Scrum Master, How Scrum's Rhythm Creates Stability In Unstable Times
Host: Vasco Duarte
Guest: Jeanette Shaikh
Date: March 11, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the central challenge of managing uncertainty as a Scrum Master in today’s volatile environment—highlighting how Scrum’s built-in rhythm and time-boxed events offer a stabilizing framework. Host Vasco Duarte and guest Jeanette Shaikh dig into both macro and micro-level uncertainties, discussing practical approaches and strategies for helping teams maintain focus, predictability, and psychological safety during turbulent times.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Pervasiveness of Uncertainty in Modern Work (02:01 - 05:10)

• Context: Jeanette shares that uncertainty is the single biggest challenge for Scrum Masters right now, fueled not just by organizational dynamics but also by larger societal and geopolitical shifts.
• Macro factors: Reference to the World Uncertainty Index, noting current global uncertainty surpasses that of Covid and the 2008 financial crisis.
• Impact on teams: Team members and POs bring their external anxieties and stress into the workplace, amplifying internal uncertainties.
• Key Insight: The need to recognize and address the human side of uncertainty, not just technical or procedural factors.

Quote:
"Whenever I meet people, everyone is stressed, everyone is uncertain about what's going to happen in the next month or in the next three months."
—Jeanette Shaikh [03:20]

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2. Types of Uncertainty & Their Impact (05:11 - 06:59)

• Different layers: Duarte points out that uncertainty spans everything from geopolitical events to whether a colleague will call in sick, supplier reliability, and internal team process disruptions.
• Practical consequences: Uncertainty can derail deliverables at multiple levels, often in ways that are outside the control of the team.
• Reflection: How does the Scrum framework help teams absorb or deflect these shocks?

Quote:
"There’s a lot of uncertainty that happens at multiple different layers within the organization. Like, for example, it’s the uncertainty about a colleague you depend on showing up tomorrow for work because they might be sick."
—Vasco Duarte [05:23]

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3. Scrum’s Rhythmic Events as a Stabilizer (06:59 - 08:44)

• The Power of Rhythm: Jeanette describes how the predictability of the Scrum events—Sprint Planning, Daily Scrums, Reviews, Retrospectives—helps reduce anxiety by providing a “known sequence” to rely on, regardless of external chaos.
• Routine benefits: Rhythm creates psychological safety, a sense of familiarity, and focuses attention on aspects within the team’s control.
• Underappreciated Simplicity: Jeanette notes that teams often underestimate how pivotal the simple rhythm of Scrum can be in turbulent contexts.

Quote:
"So when you have a rhythm, when you have a known sequence of events in front of you, that takes away already a lot of uncertainty away from you."
—Jeanette Shaikh [07:44]

• Host’s framing: Duarte introduces the concept of “internal predictability”—Scrum makes the process reliably predictable, even if the content of the work remains subject to change.

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4. Timeboxing & Isolation of Failure (08:45 - 10:46)

• Sprint boundary: Within Scrum, uncertainty is accepted outside the Sprint boundaries, but inside the Sprint, the focus is to control and minimize uncertainty.
• Handling failure: Timeboxes allow “micro-failures” to occur safely within the team, without immediate external visibility or compounding into larger crises.
• Contrast to traditional project management: In waterfall or critical path methods, failures propagate and amplify, affecting the entire system.

Quote:
"If we keep that time box as the place where we can fail, like micro failures, we don’t need to expose all of our failures to the outside."
—Vasco Duarte [09:49]

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5. Practical Techniques: Circle of Influence, Eisenhower Matrix & Velocity (10:46 - 12:43)

• Circle of Influence: Jeanette coaches her teams to focus only on what they can influence and accept what’s outside their control, reducing anxiety and wasted effort.
• Buffering with Prioritization: Using the Eisenhower Matrix, Jeanette’s team categorized recent tasks to distinguish between essential work and what can be delegated or deprioritized—finding that 20-25% of their work could be offloaded, which increases certainty for the remainder.
• Data-driven approaches: Monitoring team velocity gives a baseline for realistic Sprint planning, making uncertainty more manageable.

Insight:
"Historically we deliver these many stories. I mean, velocity is not the only thing, but this is one of the smaller things you can catch. As a team, we are certain that we deliver 50 story points of work every sprint. So let’s not plan for 100."
—Jeanette Shaikh [12:33]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "In Agile, people say that, you know, we need to be agile, we need to change the path as and when needed. Okay, it’s easier said than done.. You cannot change your plan overnight."
  —Jeanette Shaikh [03:11]

• "Scrum removes a lot of that uncertainty by establishing an accepted set of events that you know are coming in a specified and understood short-term timeline."
  —Vasco Duarte [08:27]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:01 — Jeanette describes uncertainty as the top challenge for Scrum Masters
• 03:20 — Human impact: Team stress and societal unrest
• 05:11 — Vasco breaks down uncertainty at different levels
• 06:59 — Scrum’s built-in rhythm as a buffer against chaos
• 08:45 — Internal vs. external predictability and the safety of Scrum timeboxes
• 10:46 — Practical tools: Circle of influence, Eisenhower Matrix, using data for certainty
• 12:33 — Velocity and realistic planning guard against overcommitment

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Closing Thought

This episode offers rich insight into how fostering a steady cadence, focusing on controllable elements, and making data-informed decisions can help teams and Scrum Masters weather uncertainty—both within and outside their organizational boundaries. Jeanette’s advice to leverage Scrum’s rhythm, “circle of influence”, and strategic prioritization offers actionable strategies for building team stability in unpredictable times.

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Transcript

[A]

Hey there, agile adventurer, just a quick question.

[B]

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[A]

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[B]

Hello everybody. Welcome to our Wednesday, the big question of the week, the coaching question of the week. And this week we have with us Jeanette Shaikh. Hey Jeanette, welcome back.

[C]

Hey Vasco. Thank you.

[B]

So Jeannette, Escrow Masters were constantly dealing with a mountain of complexity related to the team, the stakeholders, the organizations. All of them are changing constantly and that means we're always facing new and evolving challenges. And the way we approach these challenges and the experiments we actually try define not only our impact in those teams and organizations, but also how we grow as professionals. So the question for you today is in your current role or assignment, what is the single biggest challenge right now?

[C]

That's a very, very interesting question, Roscoe. Thank you. I think as grandmasters, like you said, we always facing new and evolving challenges. So there has never been a time where there has been a single biggest challenge. It has been always multiple challenges on multiple fronts. So some of them, like I previously touched on our previous days as well, was, you know, some members of the team that, you know, they don't have an open mindset. They just influence the team and not in the right way. Just manipulating the processes and still keeping keep working traditional pos. I think most of our listeners would really agree to this that the prime anti pattern or a lot of challenges the Scrum Masters face is from the mindset of the pos. If the product owner is, the product owner does not have the right agile mindset, it becomes really tough because it seeps through every layer. But I think, and I'm not touching a lot on the current team dynamics, but maybe it's a lot global. For example, the biggest challenge right now with my teams is, you know, the uncertainty around the world that's going on. You know, the geopolitics and, you know, the, the amount of information each person is exposed every day through their gadgets. It's overwhelming. So whenever I meet people, everyone is stressed, everyone is uncertain about what's going to happen in the next month or in the next three months. So in Agile, people say that, you know, we need to be agile, we need to change the path as and when needed. Okay, it's easier said than done. But still, in larger organizations like, you know, the ones that I've been working with, you need to definitely have a short term plan, a long term plan and then work towards it. Of course you can be agile, but you cannot change your plan overnight.

[B]

Yeah, especially I think other teams and other parts of the organization depend on what you promised you would do.

[C]

Exactly, exactly. So then the biggest challenge that I am facing right now is the uncertainty. Even I have, I have some data to back this up. The World Uncertainty Index report that came out in February that said that it was the highest ever, you know, the uncertainty in the world even more than what it was in Covid, even more in the 2008 crisis. So we are dealing in very, you know, strange time. We are dealing with very strange times. So when you, as a, as a scrum master, you go and connect with your teams, you need to have this, you need to be cognizant of this aspect that you know, where the t your team members are coming from, where your PO is coming from, Lots of uncertainty. So yeah, just to, if you, if, if I have to answer your this question in one word, it's dealing with uncertainty. And that's the biggest challenge right now for me.

[A]

Yeah, absolutely.

[B]

So let's explore this because this question is not only important from a social perspective, which it is, it's more important than ever. As you said, you just referred to the World Uncertainty Index. But it is also very pragmatically important in the work that we do with the teams. And it's when with your introduction, it's easy to focus on the biggest source of uncertainty. Right. Like economic situation, war and all of that, which is of course the biggest source of uncertainty. But there's a lot of uncertainty that happens at multiple different layers within the organization. Like for example, very simple. It's the uncertainty about a colleague. You depend on showing up tomorrow for work because they might be sick. Right. Like, I don't know at the time of this recording in March 2026. There's been a type A flu going around and left a lot of people at home in bed for two weeks. Now imagine if your project depends on one of those people, then you're stuck, right? There's that level of uncertainty. If we work with suppliers, there's the level of uncertainty of being able to engage those suppliers and have them in the project in time when you need them. So we deal with a lot of uncertainty. And what this brings to my mind is the question, what in our processes is designed to accept and adapt to that uncertainty? When you think about the current processes in the organization where you are, name for us, what are the aspects in the process that are designed to accept and handle uncertainty?

[C]

Again, a very mostly an interesting insight and you mentioned the word supplier, so that gets me going. You know, we are dealing with a lot of supply uncertainty. But to answer your question, Vasco, I think the Agile principles and the Scrum framework, I think most of the teams work with Scrum and that is where a Scrum master comes in. I think the pattern of Scrum itself takes away a lot of uncertainty from you if you look at it really closely. So, so what happens? We define the sprint, the planning, retrospective dailies at a certain, you know, at a, at a certain frequency and a defined time. You know, so we have rhythm, we have a set flow of activities that already takes away a lot of uncertainty because as a team member, as a product owner, I know that, okay, tomorrow we have a sprint planning. So in this meeting we have to do these set of activities. Then we have the daily, then we have the. So when you have a rhythm, when you have a known sequence of events in front of you, that takes away already a lot of uncertainty away from you. Right? So I think people underestimate Scrum to a lot of extent. You know, the simplicity of Scrum is really able, very much more than able enough to, you know, handle the complexity of larger organizations or larger uncertainties.

[B]

You named something there that I really want to highlight the rhythm and you talked about that. Scrum removes a lot of that uncertainty by establishing an accepted set of events that you know are coming in a specified and understood short term timeline.

[C]

Right.

[B]

And that rhythm is what we call internal predictability. Right? It's predictability of how we do the work, not what work we do. But there's still unpredictability there. But Scrum also offers a solution there, which is the package of the time box. Right. And the core element of Scrum is you accept uncertainty outside the Sprint boundaries and you try to remove as much as possible uncertainty inside the sprint boundaries. Right. Like that would be internal versus external predictability or uncertainty. There are other aspects to that, but I wanted to highlight that because I think when you mentioned the rhythm, I think that's very important because it builds trust, it builds openness to other smaller micro changes that happen within that rhythm that are kind of scaffolded towards the outside. Right. Like in other words, everybody can fail, but not everybody needs to know that you failed.

[C]

Right.

[B]

And if we keep that time box as the place where we can fail, like micro failures, we don't need to expose all of our failures to the outside. And if we compare that with traditional project planning, where all the failures compound and they are all externally significant. Right. Like for example, the concept of a critical path. That every single task in the critical path has an impact and visibility outside the team, you obviously start to understand. Okay, in scrum, we accept uncertainty to a great extent and we also isolate the external world from internal uncertainty by creating this boundary, the sprint. Right. Do you have some other ideas or concepts in mind from the current processes as you apply them that help to manage, contain the consequences of uncertainty?

[C]

Yeah, I think what I have been coaching my teams is, you know, the circle of influence. You know, what is your local self control. If, if this is your circle of influence, please do everything that is possible to, you know, influence that. But if there are certain things outside of a locus of control, and you see there, sorry, even if it's uncertain, it's accepted, you, you mentally prepare yourself that, you know, this is something that you cannot control. So you leave that control only what you have, the circle of influence and circle of control. And I always suggest my teams now to have some sort of a buffer. So I had, I had a coaching with them where I proposed converting uncertainty to uncertainty by using the Eisenhower matrix. So, you know, what we did is we listed a list all the activities that we did in the last few sprints and then we place them on the as in our matrix. What is really important for the team? What is it something that we can say no to, what we can delegate outside of the team when we place that? I think we realized that we can easily delegate or take or deprioritize 20 to 25% of the work that we are doing today. So that gave us certainty on, okay, 75% of the work that we are doing. We can do it with 100% certainty in the next time. The velocity, for example, of each team. That is also the historical velocity that you gather, that is also a benchmark for you and your team to say, okay, historically we deliver these many stories. I mean, velocity is not the only thing, but this is one of the smaller things you can catch. As a team, we are certain that we deliver 50 story points of work every sprint. So let's not plan for 100.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. That's another great example. So appreciate you sharing that with us. Thank you for sharing all of that with us, Junit.

[C]

Thank you, Osco.

[A]

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[B]

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