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The 2026 season just around the corner of the Oklahoma Sooners, Year 5 of the Brent Venables era in Norman as Boomer Sooner looks to return to the College Football Playoff and do something they've never done before. That's win a game in the College Football Playoff. I am here locking in my game by game predictions for the upcoming 2026 season. Guys, before we get there really quickly, let's talk about what our friends over at Kalsi think of Oklahoma heading into this season. They give the Sooners a 91% chance to win five or more games, 85% chance to win six or more, 86% to win seven or more, 66% to win eight or more, 45% to win nine or more, 38% to win 10 or more, 10% to win 11 or more, and 6% to get to 12 wins. So the break right there, guys, right around that eight and a half win mark. 66% at eight or more, 45% at nine or more, and again 38% at 10 or more. So still a pretty high number. So it goes without saying that Kalshee fully expects Oklahoma to be right around that eight win, nine win range and be a factor in the College Football Playoff conversation. And that is reflected as well in their percentage chances to get to the College Football Playoff. Guys, they give the sooners and a 33% chance to get to the College Football Playoff. With that being said, guys, let's lock it in my game by game predictions for year five of the Brent Venables era. We pull up the schedule and we start in week number one. Don't forget, set your calendars accordingly. The season gets going on a Friday this year. Friday, September 4th, Oklahoma will host UTEP as they'll get their season off and running in style. And guys, in my opinion, of course, it's not a matter of fact. Does Oklahoma win or lose this football game? Certainly I have Oklahoma getting off to a 10 start. But a lot of the questions from the off season that we have, do we start to get some answers right? What does John Mateer look like fully healthy? Is Oklahoma able to run the football in a conventional running game? Hey, what does John Mateer look like? That's been kind of the talk in the story all off season. Is John Mateer his new physique? He his new build? I've. I've seen more shirtless pictures of John Matier than I probably would have cared to have seen. But that's okay. I totally get it. How about some new pieces on the outside defensively, is the defense looking early on like it's going to live up to the billing? Obviously, again, not a matter of will you win, it's a matter of how you win. Oklahoma will win this football game as they start their season off one and oh, and really, again guys, about what week one is all about is getting ready for the week two matchup in the Big House as Oklahoma travels up to Michigan to take on the Wolverines. A new look Michigan team, right? Kyle Whittingham taking over after the dismissal of Chiron Moore. Over the course of the offseason, does Bryce Underwood take a step forward. Michigan is one of those teams because of all the changes they've had over the course of the offseason. You're going to get a lot of mixed opinions on them and a lot of mixed emotions. I've seen some people go as far as to have Michigan in their college Football Playoff. I've seen some that think the Wolverines might win six or seven games in a Big Ten. That a six or seven win season would be mighty disappointing even in Whittingham's first season at the helm. That being said, guys, this was a game that I was at in Norman a season ago, had a blast, great time. Oklahoma of course gets the win. I think they will do that again. Even though this game is at the Big House, it is the big noon kickoff game. I think Oklahoma goes on the road, finds a way to get the win here to move to two. And oh guys, as you know, big week two for the SEC with OU at Michigan, Texas, Ohio State. I know Oklahoma fans aren't worried about that game in Austin, but I do think the, the, the Oklahoma will represent the SEC well. I think they get this win and I think they move to two. And oh, then week number three you get New Mexico. So you kind of get to ease into the season a little bit. At least the first two, two of your first three games, very manageable. Again, this will be not necessarily a get right game, but a game you look for to contain a build momentum. Because what lies ahead the following week, any of the final cobwebs you need to dust off or any of the final kinks you need to iron out, this is your opportunity to do so against New Mexico and I think Oklahoma will do that. I think they move to 3, 0, certainly building off of the momentum that they found in Ann Arbor. Then we go to week number four at Georgia, a team in Georgia that I'm extremely high on. I think Georgia goes 11 and 1, I think they win the SEC. I think what their SEC's arguably the SEC's best shot to win the national championship this season. And there's some things you just don't do in college football and that is one of them is walk into Sanford Stadium and beat the Georgia Bulldogs on their home field. Guys, Georgia has lost two whole games at home since 2017. One of them came in 2019 to South Carolina, the other one last year to the Alamo Crimson Tide, a game that I was actually at and got to witness firsthand. So beating Georgia at their place is extremely difficult. But like I said, I don't think Georgia goes undefeated. Guys, as good as they are with Gunner Stockton and I think they're going to be physical at both lines of scrimmage and I think they have weapons everywhere. I think the defense is going to be lethal right up there with Oklahoma's is one of the best. But I think there's going to be a blemish on Georgia schedule. I think Georgia is going to lose to someone. I think in a non game conference schedule it is asking way too much to ask anyone to go undefeated. And I think if you're going to get Georgia, if you're going to play Georgia, I think you'd rather play them early. Maybe they're still figuring some things out for the offensive side of the wide receiver position, right? Maybe defensively some of the new faces they're going to be inserting in there, maybe the pass rush still isn't quite where they want it to be. That was a problem area a season ago. Sir, I'm nitpicking and I'm splitting hairs, but I think you'd rather see the dogs early. They're going to lose a game and I will go out on a limb and call my shot and say it is this one. I think Oklahoma walks into Sanford Stadium, goes between the hedges and pulls off one of the biggest upsets of the college football season and takes down Georgia. Here's my reasoning why you have a dynamic playmaker in John Materic quarterback early in the season especially, he will be healthy. Oklahoma, knock on wood as a whole, will be healthy. My big reason guys is this. I think Oklahoma, at minimum from the defensive side of the football, I think Oklahoma because I the thing I like the most about Georgia is their offensive line, their physicality in the run game. I think Oklahoma is maybe the one team on their schedule that can punch Georgia back in the face in the trenches. I, I really believe that. I think Oklahoma very well might have the Best defense in the sec, maybe in all of college football, they're that good. And you've got the mastermind at D.C. in Brent Venables, who is right up there, if not even better than Kirby Smart from a defensive coaching standpoint, not a better coach, but better defensive mind. It's debatable. I'd still probably go Kirby, but it's debatable. That being said, I think Oklahoma was able to force a couple turnovers, get the football off a gunner, Stockton. I think John Matier with his playmaking ability is able to do some things. And I think Oklahoma wins a low scoring defensive slugfest. Sooners pull off one of the biggest upsets in the college football season, take the college football world by storm and they start the season four. And oh, then you go into the bye week, right? You get ready for the Red River Shootout against the Texas Longhorns down there in Dallas. Guys, I was at this game last year, fortunate enough to go, and I learned a very, very valuable lesson last year. You know, it's very coach speak to say that every week's a season. How many of us have heard a coach say that every week's a season, right? Extremely coach speak thing to say. But what I learned last year, this game really does feel like a season. Like this game is different. This game is unlike anything I've ever seen, I've ever witnessed, I've ever experienced the environment, the festivities, the state fair, the rivalry, the hatred, the respect, the history, the tradition, all of it. So it's unlike anything else in the sport of college football, probably in sports in general. You could argue in it is the best rivalry in the sport. Certainly I think it is one of the best. I have a newfound respect for it after going last year. But here's what I really learned. Expect the unexpected, right? I remember last year, it was a foregone conclusion. Oklahoma was the better team than Texas. Texas had struggled mightily up to that point. Then the spread comes out that week. Texas favored. How could Texas be favored? Why would Texas be favored? What did Vegas know? And of course that was the game. John Mateer, thumb injury. He comes back, the decision making wasn't good. Was the injury a large factor in that? Probably so. But Texas ends up winning the football game. So I learned things are not as they seem in that ball game. And there's a reason that rivalry, I know it was largely dominated by Oklahoma for a while, but you get some wacky things in that game and you get some wacky things in that rivalry. That being said, Texas I do believe is one of the most talented teams in college football. They might be the most talented team in the sec. I don't think that's a stretch to say at all. But expect the unexpected. I think Oklahoma gets their lick back. I do. I think Oklahoma wins this football game. I think they take down Texas, I think the Sooners beat Georgia, go through a by week and then beat Texas hottest team in college football out of the gate. And I think Oklahoma starts the season five and I think they get revenge for last year. I think John Mattier is much better in this game than he was a season ago. Let's keep our fingers crossed obviously that he is 110 healthy. I will say this one's going to be pure cinema. I mean this one's going to be awesome. Cannot wait to see this game. But I got Oklahoma getting the dub 5 and oh for the Sooners out of the gate. Then you host the Kentucky Wildcats at home. If this game was on the road maybe a little bit, be a little more cautious about it. Just in the standpoint of I think Will Stein in Kentucky are going to jump up against some people this year and are going to be dangerous. Do you have the let down factor if you just beat your arch rival in Texas? Maybe, just maybe they catch you slipping. But I don't see it. I don't see it. I think you get the win. I think Oklahoma takes down Kentucky. I, I think Will Stein will do some nice things with the Cats. I just don't think they're there yet. So I've got you 6, 0 out of the gate. How about at Mississippi State the following week? I like Jeff Levy's squad a lot. I like Camario Taylor at quarterback, Anthony Evans at receiver, Fluff Bothwell at running back. What Zach Garnett's gonna do with the defense. But I think Oklahoma defensively, even in Starkville, this one could be tricky now what if it's a night game? This will be tricky. I just think defensively I just trust what Oklahoma will do. You know, I, I trust Oklahoma's defense to put up a really, really strong showing. And even if the offense struggles in Starkville, cowbells going crazy, whatever. I think Oklahoma able to eke out a win here and stay undefeated. So I've got Oklahoma at seven and oh and at this point ou's probably what top five team in the country. And they gotta be, they gotta be the following week to close out the month of October. You get these South Carolina Gamecocks. I think this is a win For Oklahoma also I think you move to 8. 0. I think. Oh you remembers and Brent Venables remembers what happens the last time or what happened, excuse me, the last time that South Carolina was in Norman and this is a much different OU team you might recall that was the Michael Hawkins experience and you know, no disrespect to him. Played some good football for the Sooners but the offense was abysmal. It was 21 nothing before you could even blink. All the turnovers early in that game. I think Oklahoma gets some revenge on South Carolina. What is South Carolina at this point? Is Shane Beamer still the head coach? I think defensively, defensive front, I think OU will be able to feast in this ball game. I I think they will have a field day with the Gamecocks offensive line. Will their O line be better? It can't be worse, but it won't be good enough to hold up against that OU defensive front. And I think John Matier in this one has a field day. Oklahoma moves to 8 and O two months through the season undefeated. Ain't a Sooners fan who wouldn't sign up for it. Now let's get to the month of November late in the season. Bye week came early. At this point you will have played four consecutive ball games, right? Maybe some wear and tear setting in and you go to a really difficult venue in the Swamp when you take on the Florida Gators and guys, I am high on Florida this year, right? Wrong or indifferent. I've tried to talk myself out of it guys, but I am high on Florida. I like John Sumrall as a hire. I think as long as quarterback is serviceable. Guys, they are loaded across the board. Offensively they're strong in the interior of the offensive line. They got to answer some questions to tackle but by this point in the season I think those will be answered. Jaden Ball is arguably the best running back in the sec. Dallas Wilson, Vernell Brown, Eric Singleton, who they picked up in the Portal. Micah Mays, who they picked up via the Portal. And defensively they have one of the best linebacker cores in the conference. They. They have real SEC size up front. Secondary. A little bit of a question but I think by this point the season they'll come around. Big game in the Swamp. Urban Meyer being inducted into the ring of honor on this night. I think this is your first real sign of adversity. Real part of adversity where you run into adversity in this season. I think you fall to Florida, I think you fall to eight and one I think the Gators clip you. It is hard to go into the Swamp and win it is hard to go into the Swamp and win at night. And it is hard to go into the Swamp and win at night when they're inducting Urban Meyer into the Ring of Honor against what I think is going to be a pretty good Florida team. So I think you fall here to 8 and 1, then you get the Ole Miss Rebels at home. What's Ole Miss going to be, man? Trinidad Chambers. Come on, Lacy, you're back. Year one of Pete Golding got to replace over 3,000 yards of rece receiving from a season ago. Lot of new faces on defense. I think this is a game late in the season, guys, that is going to all but determine who goes in a college football playoff. Because obviously, as you hear, 8 and 1 Oklahoma right in the thick of the college football playoff race. If not at this point when the rankings are released, they're in, right? They're in. So I think Oklahoma and Ole Miss will be sitting in very similar positions. I do have Ole Miss winning this football game. I just trust Trinidad Chambliss and Kawan Lacey. I understand what Oklahoma is. Defensively, you're also facing a guy who's already gotten the better of you once in Trinidad Chambliss. So I like Ole Miss here. I really do. I think defensively they will be able to do enough. Pete Golding will scheme a up well enough to slow down John Matier. Trinidad Chambliss, Kwan Lacy. That dynamic duo is just too much for Boomer Sooner and it's backto back losses after starting 8 and 0. So you're 8 and 2 right now. Texas A and M coming to town in an early one. How do you bounce back? Can you bounce back? Playoff hopes on the line? Potentially, I think you bounce back the right way. I think Oklahoma will beat Texas A M. I think they'll move to 9 and 2. Take Texas a M. Big time questions on the offensive line. Big time questions. Marcel Reed, in a spot like this, do I really trust him? They got some nice weapons on the outside and nice weapons at running back, but those two areas concern me defensively. I mean this, this has the opportunity to be one of the ultimate defensive slug fests of the season. Right? With Mike Elko and Brent Minimals. And I do not think Oklahoma loses three in a row. I do not. I do not think they lose three in a row. I like OU here to bounce back the right way, get the win, move to nine and two and that brings you into the final weekend in como sitting at 9 and 2. Your college football playoff hopes are all on the line here in the final weekend of the season. This is where I'm going to lose a lot of you and I totally understand. Unsubscribe block. Do whatever you want to do. I It's nothing but love, by the way. Predictions on the personal this is one of the reasons that we love college football rivalry games. Whether Oklahoma wants to call it a rivalry or not, I know oh, you folks hate Missouri folks and I know Mizzou folks don't like OU folks, and that's totally good. That's what makes college football great. But what makes college football great is expect the unexpected. You never know what might happen, especially on rivalry weekend. Playoff hopes on the line. I don't think Missouri's playing for much of anything here, and I do think it's the Tigers that clip you to end your season. I think Missouri gets you in the final game. I'm calling my shot here. It's a big upset. Kind of like me calling Oklahoma beating Georgia. We love upsets in college football until it happens to your team, and I think it happens to your team. In the final weekend of the season, Oklahoma finishes up 9 and 3 overall, 6 and 3 in SEC play. Now again, we can split hairs on which three they are. Nine and three feels right to me. Nine and three just on the outside of the College Football Playoff race, I think Ole miss is the 9 and 3 team that gets in, which is why I say that game against Ole Miss is so pivotal. I mean, I think Oklahoma is a fringe playoff team. Guys, if a fifth team gets in, very well could be Oklahoma. I don't think we're that lucky. But if a 15 gets in, you can make the argument that it should be ou. That being said, I think you just barely miss out on the College Football Playoff. But a strong 9 and 3 season in year 5 of Brent Venables, following up what you did a season ago, do I think Oklahoma Oklahoma could finish much better than this? Yes, I do. Absolutely. Again, I think they're one of those teams on the short list outside of Georgia, Texas, who could go to Atlanta for the SEC title. I very well think Oklahoma could. But guys, when you're making predictions like this, especially for games late in the season, you have to factor in things like, you know, what does the injury report look like, you know, wear and tear, you know, going throughout the season like it's college football, man. Expect the unexpected. So I got 9 and 3 for the sooners 6 and 3 in SEC play Fringe College Football Playoff team I don't know that I could call this a success for Oklahoma because I know Oklahoma fans wouldn't call this a success. But knocking on the door of the playoff, maybe, just maybe they'll get there this season. So guys would love to hear from you your thoughts. Where do you agree? Where do you disagree? How do you predict the Oklahoma Sooners fair in the 2026 season? Guys, that's going to do off me really appreciate each every single one of you tuning in. Before we get out of here really quickly, we want to tell you about our friends over at Kalshi because as always are brought to you by our friends at Calci Guys for the season even kicks off everyone including yours truly is making predictions. Who wins the division, who wins the playoffs, who's lifting the trophy at season 10. On Kalshi, America's number one prediction market platform, you can trade those predictions in a live market. Again, individual games, who makes the playoff, who wins the Natty, who wins the Heisman, everything in between. Guys on Cali, you're trading experience on a live market, meaning there's no house. As the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position, trade the draft, pick the game and more. On Cowshi, download the Kalshi app and use promo code SCCU to get up to $500 in bonus credits when you trade $25. That's K A L S H I kalshee trade on anything 18 enough. Only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract training involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Cali products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see cow.com regulatory guys, once again, I appreciate each and every single one of you tuning in. As always, thank you. Make sure you hit that like and subscribe button on YouTube. Check us out where we get your podcast all across your favorite social media platforms as well as our website sec unfiltered.com follow me at C Philly 19 and stay tuned. All of our content Content bleeding out of the eyeballs once again. Appreciate you all tuning in. Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to you all on the other side. Sa. Sam.
Episode Date: August 5, 2026
Host: Chris Phillips (SEC Unfiltered)
Chris Phillips delivers his annual, in-depth game-by-game prediction for the Oklahoma Sooners’ 2026 football season—Year 5 of the Brent Venables era. With expectations riding high, Phillips provides thoughtful analysis, key storylines, and plenty of passionate banter on how OU will fare in its most anticipated SEC schedule to date, culminating in bold upset picks and playoff implications.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Notes | |--------------------|---------------------|--------|-------------------------------------------------| | 1 | UTEP | W | Easy opener; see Mateer at full strength | | 2 | at Michigan | W | Navigating new era for Wolverines | | 3 | New Mexico | W | Build momentum before gauntlet | | 4 | at Georgia | W | BOLD UPSET; OU's defense the difference | | 5 | BYE | - | Rest before Red River | | 6 | Texas (Dallas) | W | “Pure cinema”; revenge game | | 7 | Kentucky | W | Trap factor post-Texas but OU survives | | 8 | at Miss State | W | Defense carries through hostile venue | | 9 | South Carolina | W | Avenges past loss; dominates up front | | 10 | at Florida | L | Adversity in Swamp; Urban Meyer night | | 11 | Ole Miss | L | Pivotal Playoff-implication clash | | 12 | Texas A&M | W | Defensive slugfest, OU bounces back | | 13 | at Missouri | L | Rivalry weekend shocker; Playoff hopes dashed | | Final Record | | 9-3 | 6-3 SEC, Fringe Playoff contender |
For more analysis or listener reactions, check out @CPhilly19 and secunfiltered.com.