Jesse Simonton On Viral Shane Beamer Article, SEC Teams That'll Regress, Future of LSU/UF/Tennessee - SEC Unfiltered

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[00:00]
A
Kick off the 2026 college football season. Just around the corner today, we have a very special guest talking all things SEC football, college football, everything in between. Jesse Simonton, one of the best in the business. He's a national college football reporter, also has his own substack where he publishes his own work called Surrender Cobra. And he was an example this week that it's not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. You rattle cages and ruffle feathers on the social media machine that we all love so dearly. His latest piece on Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks with the headline, you coach at South Carolina to get fired. Shane, we knows that and why Shane Beamer's tenure may end poorly. We're not just going to talk about that, though. SEC football, everything in between. Jesse, really appreciate you taking the time, my friend. And like I said, you know, you're doing something right. And you said this off air when people are writing articles about articles, that is when you know you've struck a chord, my friend. It is talking season. It's banter season. It's one of our favorite times of the year. Really appreciate you taking the time.
[01:04]
B
Thanks for having me, Chris. I mean, it's, it's funny. South Carolina fans, I have long, you, you have a, A, A deep history with them. I've, you know, being an SEC beat writer before, kind of moving my way up. I, you know, both at Florida and Tennessee, you know, I have long time a champion that Gamecock fans, it doesn't matter if they're 4 and 8, 2 and, you know, 2 and 10, 8 and 4, whatever, they're going to fill up Williams Bryce Stadium. But they can also be a little sensitive and, and clearly I think we kind of saw that. You know, you alluded to the piece. The irony is, Chris, the headline actually was not, you coach at South Carolina to get fired. That is, you know, that, that was a provocative tweet that I put. But the headline was that, you know, I just think that ultimately Shane Beamer's time is cooked. And South Carolina fans, whether it was the, the, the fired statement or even the thesis that Shane Beamer, you know, suddenly can't turn it around, I think that's what they kind of took umbrage with.
[01:59]
A
Yeah. And Jesse, like I said, I promise I'm not going to spend, we're not going to spend the entire time talking about that. I don't even know if it was on my listed topic to discuss with you until I saw the piece come out. And again, Highly encourage everybody to go over to Surrender Cobra. You do great work over there at your substack. Super entertaining and valuable information for the common college football fan. Not just sec, but talk to me about this piece specifically, what inspired it. I thought you hit on a lot of points that were valid from the standpoint of the history and the way the tenure is going. I could also see the other side and understand some of the pushback from the standpoint that I would actually agree with this point I saw somebody make. If anything, I think you could argue that South Carolina at times has been too patient in their history with head coaches. This even goes just beyond football. But just talk to me about the piece, what inspired it and what the pushback was like in the interaction and the back and forth. I know a lot of it is just noise and chatter, but I know some folks and some colleagues you and I both call friends and respect, they had their opinions on it as well.
[02:59]
B
Yeah. And you know, I will say it's funny that I have long, you know, and you, you, you've kind of discussed this, I think, throughout your various ventures that you gotta throw. You got to learn how to have a thick skin. And, and so what, you know, folks putting, you know, Twitter clown emojis or what, that stuff doesn't, it, that stuff doesn't bother me and just goes right over my head. The thesis of the piece, frankly was that, you know, again, you said talking season. So a lot of folks in the content space, many who I'm really respect and I, you know, I kind of name drop David Pollock as one of them out there that have kind of been championed. The fact that South Carolina could be this breakout team in 2026. Well, I also had a tweet earlier in the week that a lot of folks, you could list a dozen breakout teams in the sec. Somebody's got to take the losses. And so when I'm just looking at the, the where I kind of was inspired by it, the fact that that happened and then at the very same time, all these folks were dropping their hot seat candidate list and Shane Beamer's at the top at near everyone. So something isn't meshing here. They can't both be this breakout team and have a guy who's on the cusp of being fired. And so the way I just kind of looked at it is that to date, and, and I, and I noted this in the piece as well. I mean, you know, Indiana has changed the math here. What, what was possible yesterday is now not the impossible tomorrow. South Carolina could become a national champion if they do land the right coach. But it's going to take the perfect amalgamation which Indiana hit having an all time great coach into Kurt Signetti, having the number one pick at quarterback and having a roster, you know, resource roster unlike they'd ever seen before. So far, Shane Beamer's entire tenure had just been, has just been defined by wild swings. You know, they win 6 of 8, they lose 8 of 10, they lose, you know, they went, they go 5, 0 and then they lose 7 of 9. And so even if you do like what South Carolina brings back this fall, Lenora Sellers, you know, obviously Colin Stewart's going to be a top five, you know, pick coming off the edge. Dylan Stewart, excuse me, top five pick coming off the edge. I like Swain. I think the offensive line should be better. I still think the schedule is a gauntlet and frankly, I think even if Beamer is able to coach his way to a 7 and 5 or 8 and 4 season this fall, there's nothing that says he's not going to have another, you know, backslide in 27, in 2027, especially without all these guys. And so that's kind of how I came to this piece, you know, as a whole.
[05:27]
A
Yeah, Jesse, it does feel like a vicious cycle to your point. And I think 7 and 5, we've said it on our airwaves and I'm sure you'd agree. I think 7 and 5 would be probably the worst case scenario for that program this season because you're still kind of stuck in the mud with no real long term answers of is this the guy or is this not? It's really not a definitive answer that you receive from that result. Jesse, like I said, I want to move off that and talk the entire sec and I, I want to stick with the theme of it. I really appreciate the fact that you lean into and I think more people should, although I know some are, are scared to ruffle feathers that, excuse me, not everybody's going to go 8 and 4, not everybody's going to go 10 and 2, not everybody's going to the College Football Playoff. There are going to be teams that lose football games mathematically. It has to happen. So when you look at the SEC landscape this year, most of the times I'm starting with Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, the College Football Playoff contenders, the favorites. Let's go to the bottom of the conference and maybe not even the very, very bottom because I think it's well understood that, you know, Arkansas, Kentucky, most likely, maybe Mississippi State, unless You think Jeff Lebby and Camario Taylor, they're going to pop. Who are the teams for you this season that you feel like the fan bases going in don't realize the losses are about to pile up? Because I'll admit there were a few from me that when I went through and we started doing records and projections that I was surprised how low I was on these teams. But to your point, Jesse, somebody has to lose football games and not everybody can go eight and four.
[06:54]
B
Yeah, I mean, well, one of the teams you did mention that I think has been another kind of offseason darling. So I'll just quickly say that I think, I think a lot of folks like Will Stein at Kentucky, but I do think I joked in a, in a, in a predicted order of finish, you know, kind of takeaways piece recently that I think that endorsement's gonna have to wait because Kentucky's schedule is, is not fun this year. They may be, they may be favored literally against one power four team all year. So the losses are going to come there. The other, the other fan base that I think can be a tad sensitive online, which can, can be tad to many is Missouri. And, and I think they're a team that if you, if you told of Tigers fans that they maybe have missed their window with Eli and maybe Eli missed his own window, I. E. You know, I think he was sniffing around Penn State and several other jobs. It's not, you know, so, so secret that he really had his kind of eye on Florida a couple years ago, but they ended up retaining Billy Napier so that, you know, the time just didn't work out there. Missouri fancies itself, I think, higher in the SEC than what they are now. They were picked to finish 10th. So to say that they're going to take some losses isn't some, you know, great prediction. But I think Tiger fans have a better or think higher of their team than maybe what I, what I think they're going to be in store for this fall. The other team or I don't know, the other. If you just threw out, you know, it surprised me that Oklahoma was seventh in the, in the predicted finish, which suggests that a lot of media folks do not buy in that, you know, Brent Venables is going to keep that thing humming. I'm a little bit higher on the Sooners, but, but I think that if you say, hey, Matier is still a one man band, I don't believe that the offensive line is going to be better and they still can't run the ball. It's not hard to see Oklahoma really receding to the pack than what they did a year ago.
[08:43]
A
Jessica, in your mind switching gears a little bit, who's the one player, when I asked this question, the first one that comes to mind, the player that will shape the sec picture in 2026,
[08:55]
B
I think it's got to be Trinidad Chambliss. To me, just because I think that again, if Ole Miss being third stunned me getting picked third. And, and I think because that's it's either a an indictment, maybe not an indictment, but it's either a commentary that folks don't think that Lane Kiffin was important as he perhaps was to to to all that success there, or the counter would be they think that Golding is going to kind of continue to just keep things humming by literally just letting Trinidad Chambliss do crazy Trinidad Shambliss stuff. Now who's to say that this guy who is a D2 guy who came out of nowhere, you know, suddenly maybe that. What. What if the Cinderella slipper comes off? I don't think Ole Miss fans are are exploring that possibility either. I don't think that's going to happen. I think the kid's a special talent. But you go back and watch that game against Georgia at the end of the year when they won the amount of just absurd Johnny Manziel s, you know, just pull a rabbit out of your ass plays that he made. Is that sustainable? I mean, is that. I mean, obviously they got Lacy back there. There's some other, you know, it's, he's not doing it on his own a la. A John Mateer, but I think, but he is so paramount to what Ole Miss is going to do and as a program this fall because of the wildness and all the switching parts between LSU and players, coaches, guys going from both programs back and forth. I just think that he's kind of is going to be the most important player in the league for a particular team.
[10:27]
A
Jesse, I know you've been close to the Florida Gators program previously, so I want to ask you, going into year one of John Sumrall, am I setting myself up for failure again? Am I crazy to be drinking the Kool Aid going into year one of John Sumrall? I look at this roster and I feel like, like it's so easy to fall in love with the roster. I think the schedule, while certainly not easy, sets up fairly well for them. And I think Florida is a team that could be knocking on the door at least of scaring the college football Playoff. But Jesse, I say all that and say that I've said that before. I, heck, I said that under Billy Napier. Heck, I said it as recently as last year and we all know what happened. Your thoughts on the Florida Gators, John Sumrall, what chance do you give them at surprising to the point of getting to say eight or nine wins in his first year.
[11:16]
B
So I saw that you had him going nine and three and I did smile at that.
[11:20]
A
I hate it.
[11:21]
B
I did, I did smile at that. Look, it's funny.
[11:24]
A
Easy to fall in love with that Gator logo if I'm being totally honest. You see it, you're like, this is what Florida should be doing.
[11:31]
B
It's also easy to fall in love with the roster. And I have said, I have said this many times over the last year that Billy Napier had a major Saturday's problem. But, but the problem, you know, during the, during the week in terms of getting guys to commit to Florida was not an issue. That roster is in really good shape and Sumrall deserves credit for retaining all these guys, getting Miles and Jaden Ball and, and the receivers to all come back and to stay at Florida because they could have been, you know, you know, high dollar guys in the portal. Someone else also, you know, I joke, I joked in a recent piece that his Q rating just keeps going up. Everything he does, folks are just falling, you know, and this is the time for it, right? It's August. There's every team. 0, 0. You know, the optimism, Optimism's rampant. I just, I'm curious to see how quickly, you know, the whole Buster Faulkner thing works. And it is going to be fascinating because if they catch lightning in a bottle this season, you're talking about an offensive coordinator that's going to be here for a year and then John Summerall is going to have to go hire another because Buster Faulkner is going to be a head coach. And yet every Florida fan would take that problem a year from now because that means they're probably having some real success. You're nine and three, you know, you're a fringe playoff team. So I, I could, I think that they're going to bite somebody. I think the Gators are going to bite somebody this year. Are they going to be, you know, consistent enough where you are winning all these games? Not just, you know, again, we. The talent's there. They beat Texas a year ago and then they still went 4 and 8. So it was a clearly a coaching issue. If they can shore up the special teams and how good is the offensive line I think that's ultimately going to kind of dictate how good the, how good they're going to be successful on a week to week basis this fall. I didn't, I just learned this stat today. I don't know if you knew this somehow. Florida's never had a thousand yard rusher in back to back seasons. Not even with EMT Smith or all these guys. And so can Ball do that? I mean obviously they're paying him like he better. They're certainly paying him like he better. But a lot of that again it's going to fall on how good can the offensive line be.
[13:39]
A
Yeah, the way John Somerall taught when he got the job. They certainly sounds like they're going to give it to him enough where he'll have the opportunity. By the way, you big pedicure guy. I know John Sumrall came out and said he or his wife came out and said he likes to get pedicures. You ever had a pedicure before?
[13:52]
B
I actually have not. My wife was actually talking about, she just got, she just got her nails done yesterday and was like, you'd love this. We're literally laughing about something. Right? I know, it's just like I'm not anti it at all. I'm, I love, I, I get deep tissue massages. I'm all for self care but you know, it just, it's a time thing. But I got no problem with it. I'm not, you know, I'm not Orloski out here poo pooing it.
[14:13]
A
Yeah, don't knock it till you try it. I've only had I think two or three in my life but it is a, it's a soothing experience if nothing else. I know the program, Jesse. I know that you're really, really familiar with that being the Tennessee balls. And I'm right down the road from them here and you know, I've got a lot of Tennessee buddies and I hear the way they talk and there's, you know, they're, they're, they're getting very antsy with Josh Hyple. Obviously Tennessee fans have some of the highest expectations in the conference. All they want is for it to feel like 98. And after what happened in 24, you go to the College Football Playoff. And I think once you get a taste of it, especially for a program like that, anything short of that is not going to be sufficient. I think Tennessee is one of these programs, the new age of college football, right, wrong or indifferent, they feel as if they should be in the playoff Every single year. No excuse will be sufficient as to why they are not. Your thoughts on Josh Hyple, the pressure on him. They obviously just got the commitment from dgg, the big running back that they're spending all this money on. Faison, Brandon as a young talent who could be the next star at quarterback in this league. Is he their starter? We'll see. Your thoughts on what Josh Hypo needs to do to steady the ship and reaffirm that he's the guy for the long term, or maybe you don't think he is the guy for the long term. What do you, what do you make of the balls? And not just where they sit in regards to going into the season, but where they sit as a program as a whole right now.
[15:31]
B
Yeah. So we're in lockstep on, on the kind of the macro point that you just made though, that, you know, all these SEC fan base, it's, it's a lot like, you know, you have guys wanting to name their top 10 NBA players and they name 15 guys. You know, every SEC fan base thinks they're, they should be a playoff team, but there's only so many playoff spots. Every SEC fan base thinks they should be a top 10 recruiting class, but there's only 10 spots. And so Tennessee absolutely is smack dab in the middle of that. On a macro level, I think there are reasons to be a bit concerned about Josh Hypo's program in terms of kind of what, you know, he's, he's had these hot starts, whether it was at UCF and now at Tennessee and how much is that on the previous guys that he kind of inherited and now that it's completely his own show, is he relying? You know, is. But then you say, hey, they did just invest and they got DGG, who's going to be a top, you know, 20 guy in the country. Faison. Brandon's a five star quarterback. I, I, at Serendip, literally just last week, I kind of had a piece how to spot a college football playoff sleeper. And I kind of went through nine metrics that kind of check all these different boxes. And Tennessee hit everyone. Now Florida checked a bunch of boxes. Virginia Tech checked a bunch of boxes. Usc, but the Vols have them all. To me, their season is going to hinge on how fast Jim Knowles as defense, which typically takes a year or two to marinate, had great success at Oklahoma State, obviously won a national championship at Ohio State. But even at those two stops, year one was a bit of a slog. And Tennessee can't afford, cannot afford a slog. When you're talking about starting a true freshman quarterback, I love the pieces around whoever they have at quarterback. I think the offensive line may be the best in the SEC this fall. Obviously they got a thousand yard running back. Staley is an underrated receiver, you know. Matthews former 5 star so they got, they got a lot of nice pieces there. But you're talking about starting a true freshman which making the College Football Playoff. I think Julian Sayan is one of the only ones to lead a, a, A team. You know, in the 12 team there's there's like one or two. So that, that's just an uphill battle to start. And then you're talking about again a new coaching staff, a bunch of new pieces. And we're talking about also the investment. I mean it is, I think they're doing right by the kid because clearly he needs some help. But Chaz Coleman, I mean that's a two million dollar sunk cost. And when you're talking about this day and age of how do you kind of allocate resources and all that, that's difficult. If Tennessee goes 7 and 5 this year, Vol fans are we, we've seen and I've been there personally, you know, they can, they can rage on rocky top with the best of them and, and you're gonna see some rage If Tennessee goes 7, 5, even, even 8 and 4. I think a lot of Tennessee fans are just gonna say hey, that's not good enough. Not for what we, not for the investments we're making.
[18:23]
A
Yeah. Jesse, the days of fan bases celebrating going 8 and 4 and winning outback bowls are long gone in the past, that is for sure. Lane Kiffin and lsu. Jesse, simply put, are you buying the hype and how do you, how do you quantify success in year one? Because I think it's interesting he takes over. I thought the expectations for year one were pretty, pretty reasonable, pretty realistic. I understand you spend tons of money in the portal, but we have seen them continue to escalate over the off season and deep into the preseason. Going from realistic expectations to playoff or bus to the boys over at ESPN SEC Network, what have you saying? It's national title or bust. Where do you fall in that conversation? And again, are you buying the hype with the Tigers?
[19:08]
B
I'm, I'm on the, it's national title or bus for Kiffin as at lsu, not, not necessarily in year one. I mean he's made that his own, basically. His own. He set those own parameters with, with the way he, he exited Ole Miss, in my opinion, but year one. To say, hey, this guy with 60 new faces needs to win a national title is a bit absurd, you know, on its face. However, I'm, you know, how, how long is this social media, you know, embargo. That self embargo he's put on gonna last because I think we both know that if he starts winning, Lane Kibbin's gonna start tweeting. And, and if he's. If they lose the Clemson, you know, maybe, maybe it stays quiet as a church mouth. So I am fascinated to see how it plays out. I have no, I honestly have no. My, my, my, my hottest. Or it's. It's like the inverse of a hot take. I have no idea how LSU is going to be this year. I, I don't think that anybody can know. Just with, I mean, you're talking about a quarterback that's got a foot injury that I know he's allegedly healthy now, but didn't participate in spring, is surrounded by just an absurd amount of new faces. How is this thing gonna actually coalesce? It better, obviously. I mean, have you seen the lsu? And I know because you guys have gone through all the different records and stuff. I'm not sure folks understand that, like LSU September schedule is just full of land mines and that's just the first month of the season. Then, you know, when you're talking about what the rest of the slate they have. So is eight. Are they one of these teams, you know, circle back early in our conversation. They could be one of these teams that are going to take some losses that no Tiger fan and I don't think Lane Kiffin either is expecting. But it is a plausible scenario considering how much newness there is, you know, in the bayou there.
[20:55]
A
Jesse, we'll save Georgia and Texas here for a moment. That next batch of teams, I would say Oklahoma, Texas A and M, Alabama. I mean, you can maybe even throw LSU in there, Ole Miss, who are you buying the most stock in out of that group? Because it feels like a foregone conclusion. We saw the media vote on it. One, two, Georgia, Texas. And I. I don't want to say that as an insult to any other programs, fan bases, whatever, but it just feels like everybody's under the assumption it's those two teams, those the two to be. And then there's a gap. Who's the third one for you that you feel like, hey, like this is a team that could jump up. They could knock Georgia or Texas down a peg and, and challenge to get to Atlanta, maybe be one of the SEC's better shots at winning a national title.
[21:42]
B
So it's funny, if I'm taking a coach, I would take Mike Elko, but I like Oklahoma's roster better. And so even though I'm not the biggest Brent Venables believer, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna, I would say the Sooners. And that's why it surprised me that they were picked seventh and, and you know, Texas A and M again is this. Can they sustain success? They've never won 10 games two years in a row. You know, that's what Mike Elko is trying to do this fall. Oklahoma, you're talking about elite special teams. They got the best punter kicker in the country or in the sec they got, you know, Satania, one of the better returners. And I just love that defense. And so if you think that Matier is going to be healthy and they can find a way to run the ball, which obviously was a huge issue, why not Oklahoma? Also it's. How crazy is this? Chris, We've been talking for I don't know, 20, 25 minutes, whatever. We ain't mentioned Alabama once, which is insane. You know, to just that. And that's. And that should, and that speaks clearly to the skepticism people have around Kayla bore right now and how that program finished 2025. The fact that they got pants by Georgia in Atlanta and then they did beat Oklahoma, they beat this same Oklahoma team but then they just got curb stomped by Indiana and that's kind of that, that lasting image that people have at the Tide and so are we sleeping on Alabama? Are they really the sixth or seventh or you know, eighth best team or can they find their way back up into the, you know, to, to the top tier where they are competing with Texas and Alabama or Texas and Georgia for the SEC championship. We'll see.
[23:15]
A
Yeah. And Jesse, shame on me for not mentioning. I, I do think from the. If you really take the definition of underrated, I think Bama fits it. I know they have questions, but I mean even looking at their schedule, you know, I was one that fully expected to be a little more down on Bama more than usual, at least for my standards. And you go through the schedule and you're like sets up pretty well. I mean they kind of have a landing strip at the beginning of the season. Not to belittle any of those opponents they open with, but they open with the Kentucky's and the Florida states and the East Carolinas and the, the South Carolinas and The Mississippi states, the world, these are all teams, they're vastly more talented than, if nothing else before they get that big match up against Georgia. So there should be time for them to, to find their stride, at least early in the season. I mean, it does feel like to me, if you wanted to make the case Bama's the most underrated team in the conference, I would listen. But I think that's what makes that group so fascinating. Jesse is, I've heard, overrated and underrated for teams like Bama, Oklahoma A and M, it's like, oh yeah, can't really be both. But there's so many mixed opinions on them that you get both sides of it.
[24:22]
B
For sure. For sure. And that, that speaks to what I was kind of laughing about earlier too, that you know that 10, 10 teams in the SEC are sleepers, but you can't be half. Half the league can't be sleepers. If you're, if you're not even including Georgia and Texas in that group, somebody's got to be taking the losses.
[24:38]
A
Speaking of Georgia and Texas, Jesse, which of those two do you feel gives the SEC the better chance to win the national championship and snack snap this drought of four straight years not even being in that game?
[24:51]
B
I, it's got to be Texas. Just because of how the, the ceiling of that high end talent, it's kind of, it's. They might be legitimately the most talented roster in the country. You know, if you lined up 1 through 85 against everybody else, I think it's, you know, Texas, Oregon and Ohio State. And I say that, and it's funny because I would pick, I would still pick Georgia to win the sec. I think I, I think it is an indictment, particularly on Steve Sarkeesian, that Texas was not picked because folks, and rightfully so, have more faith that Kirby Smart on a week in and week out basis is going to deliver a competent competitive football team. They're not going to stub their toe like Texas did against a 4 and 8 Florida. They find a way to win that game. And so, but if you're talking about then making the College Football Playoff and winning two or three games, I think I, I'm just. The ceiling there, I think is just a little bit higher with Texas, with Arch Manning, you know, with Colin Simmons, you get Rasheed Biles. I will say this, I'm also a little, I'm very, I don't know how much you guys have talked about it here. I'm curious to see, you know, everyone is just kind of rubber stamped that Will Muschamp's going to be this upgrade at defensive coordinator. I love Will. I think Boom's hilarious. He and I have, he, he, he and I have had a kind of a funny relationship for years, dating back when I was a beat writer for Florida and then years on after and what he did, kind of working as a, you know, conciliar and lieutenant for Kirby Smart, clearly worked out really well, Will going back to his alma mater. But he was not a primary defensive play caller. He was not calling the shots. That was Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann, you know, taking the heavy burden there. He has not done that in a decade. That's a long time. And so to, to just say that, you know, he's suddenly going to be the old coach Boom, where he's, you know, punching the whiteboard from the famous gif at Texas, you know, way back in 2005. We'll see. We'll see. They're paying him like he better. You know, he's the highest, I think the highest paid defensive quarter in the country. But I'm just curious to see that, how that plays out. But again, if I'm talking about just raw ceiling, I think Texas has the best chance of winning the national championship. But I would still pick, and I agreed with the poll. It made sense for me that Georgia was the pick to actually win the league.
[27:17]
A
Jesse Simonton, one of the best in the business. Jesse, final thing, we'll get you out of here. We talked a lot about LSU and Ole Miss. Of course, they are back in the news. Ole miss is suing two of their former players. Two now, LSU Tigers zeroing in on that September 19 matchup because things are going to continue to boil and probably boil over when toe meets leather in that football game. Heck, even when we get to the week of that game, a loss in that game would be more detrimental for which of those two teams, LSU or Ole Miss?
[27:49]
B
I, I, to me, it's got to be lsu just because of everything that's been built around it. I mean, I, I think there's still, folks are still kind of curious to see, you know, what is Pete Golding going to be like as a first year head coach. I don't, I don't think the Ole Miss fans are gonna, you know, ring them in the streets if they don't win that game. Whereas everything LSU's done, the actions that Kiffin took, you know, to Ole Miss, the fact that it's on record that he, I mean, he basically could have had a statue built there, you know, and and and that was not good enough. He needs to win that game. Whether he can is going to be fascinating but he needs to win that game.
[28:28]
A
Jesse Simonton Surrender Cobra is the sub stack. You can find them all across social media as well. National college football writer, reporter, personality what have you. Jesse really appreciate you taking the time. Let folks know how they directly can access all of your work and all your great content.
[28:44]
B
Yeah I appreciate it. Surrender Cobra sub stack you can find it surrendercover.com but also it's the easiest way just to go to sub stack type in Surrender Cobra. You can follow me on X at. Jesse Re Simonton so appreciate you having me Chris it's always good to hop on and and chat about some SEC football. So glad to join the show today.
[29:04]
A
Absolutely Jesse Appreciate you taking the time man. We'll definitely do it again soon.
[29:07]
B
Thanks dude. Sa. What's up with it.

Summary8 min read

SEC Unfiltered with Jesse Simonton: On Viral Shane Beamer Article, SEC Teams That'll Regress, Future of LSU/UF/Tennessee
July 30, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode features Chris (host of SEC Unfiltered) in a lively and insightful conversation with Jesse Simonton, a respected national college football reporter and author of the Substack Surrender Cobra. The duo dives into Jesse’s viral article about Shane Beamer and the South Carolina program, discusses which SEC teams are likely to regress in 2026, and explores the trajectory and futures of major programs like LSU, Florida, and Tennessee. The exchange is loaded with candid takes, banter, and expert analysis, perfect for hardcore SEC fans and broader college football aficionados.

1. The Viral Shane Beamer Article & South Carolina’s Coaching Cycle

[00:00–05:27]

Article Context & Reaction:
Jesse elaborates on his controversial piece about South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer—a hot topic that sparked vigorous backlash from Gamecock fans on social media. Chris credits Jesse for the stir:

"When people are writing articles about articles, that’s when you know you’ve struck a chord." (A, 00:42)
Jesse clarifies the real headline and main point: "The irony is...the headline actually was not 'You coach at South Carolina to get fired.' That was a provocative tweet that I put. But the headline was that, you know, I just think that ultimately Shane Beamer’s time is cooked." (B, 01:25)
Fan Backlash & South Carolina’s History:
Jesse notes that Carolina fans are passionate but occasionally sensitive. The root of the piece:

"So far, Shane Beamer’s entire tenure had just been defined by wild swings...they win 6 of 8, they lose 8 of 10, they win, they go 5-0 then lose 7 of 9...even if you do like what South Carolina brings back this fall...the schedule is a gauntlet." (B, 04:00)
Broader Point:
Jesse points out the incongruity in media projecting South Carolina as both a breakout and hot-seat team, and frames the piece around the cyclical nature of coaching tenures at South Carolina.

2. Hard SEC Truths: Not Everyone Can Win

[05:27–08:55]

Inevitable Regression:
Chris brings up a fundamental yet often overlooked reality:

"Not everybody’s going to go 8-4, not everybody’s going to go 10-2, not everybody’s going to the College Football Playoff. There are going to be teams that lose football games mathematically." (A, 05:54)
Teams Set to Disappoint:
Jesse identifies programs at risk for underperforming in 2026:
- Kentucky:
  
  "Kentucky’s schedule is not fun this year. They may be favored literally against one Power Four team all year." (B, 07:03)
- Missouri:
  
  "If you told Tigers fans they maybe have missed their window with Eli...I think Tiger fans think higher of their team than maybe what I think they’re going to be in store for." (B, 07:43)
- Oklahoma:
  
  "If you say...Mateer is still a one-man band, I don't believe the offensive line is going to be better and they still can't run the ball. It's not hard to see Oklahoma really receding to the pack." (B, 08:29)

3. 2026’s Most Influential SEC Player

[08:55–10:27]

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss QB:
To Jesse, no player will shape the SEC as much as Chambliss:

"If Ole Miss being picked third stunned me, it's either a commentary that folks don't think that Lane Kiffin was important as he perhaps was...or they think Golding is going to...just let Trinidad Chambliss do crazy Trinidad Chambliss stuff." (B, 09:05)
- Chambliss’s wild improvisational style reminds Jesse of Johnny Manziel, and the sustainability of that is a big question:
"Is that sustainable?...He’s not doing it on his own a la John Mateer, but he is so paramount to what Ole Miss is going to do." (B, 09:37)

4. Florida Gators: Setting Up for a Surprise?

[10:27–13:39]

Sumrall Era Optimism:
Chris admits to "drinking the Kool-Aid" about new coach John Sumrall and the 2026 Gators.
- Jesse acknowledges the roster strength, credits Sumrall for retention, but raises key questions:
  
  "That roster is in really good shape and Sumrall deserves credit for retaining all these guys...because they could have been, you know, high dollar guys in the portal." (B, 11:36) "Are they going to be consistent enough? They beat Texas a year ago and then they still went 4-8. So it was clearly a coaching issue." (B, 12:33)
- X-factor for Jesse: Offensive line play and special teams will dictate their fate.
- Fun fact:
  
  "Florida’s never had a thousand yard rusher in back-to-back seasons. Not even with Emmitt Smith." (B, 13:28)

5. Tennessee’s Reality Check

[14:12–18:22]

Vols’ Expectations & Challenges:
Chris highlights the sky-high expectations among Tennessee fans—anything less than a playoff berth is unacceptable now.
- Jesse draws parallels to other “blue blood” SEC programs:
  
  "Every SEC fan base thinks they should be a playoff team, but there's only so many playoff spots. Every SEC fan base thinks they should be a top 10 recruiting class, but there's only 10 spots. Tennessee is absolutely smack dab in the middle of that." (B, 15:36)
Josh Heupel’s Program:
Jesse points out reasons for concern as the Heupel era further takes shape and Tennessee transitions to a fully “Heupel-built” team.
- The defense’s rapid progression under new DC Jim Knowles is critical, especially with a freshman QB:
  
  “Their season is going to hinge on how fast Jim Knowles as defense...marinates. ...Tennessee can't afford a slog when you're talking about starting a true freshman quarterback." (B, 16:14)
- Star freshmen like Faison Brandon are reasons for hope, but:
  
  "If Tennessee goes 7-5 this year, Vol fans...can rage on Rocky Top with the best of them." (B, 18:10)

6. LSU and Lane Kiffin: Hype vs. Reality

[18:22–20:54]

Year One Expectations:
Chris and Jesse discuss Lane Kiffin’s debut at LSU. National title talk is prominent, but Jesse cautions:

“To say, hey, this guy with 60 new faces needs to win a national title is a bit absurd...I'm fascinated to see how it plays out. I have no...I have no idea how LSU is going to be this year." (B, 19:16)
- Jesse notes LSU's "land mine" September schedule and cautions that some unexpected losses are plausible amid all the new pieces.

7. The Third SEC Contender: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Alabama

[20:54–24:22]

Oklahoma or A&M as “Next Up”:
Jesse splits the difference, noting he’d take Mike Elko as a coach but prefers Oklahoma’s roster for 2026. He signals out Oklahoma’s strengths:

"Oklahoma...elite special teams...love that defense. If you think that Mateer is going to be healthy and they can find a way to run the ball, why not Oklahoma?" (B, 21:58)
No One Talking About Alabama:
Jesse is surprised by the lack of Alabama discussion:

"How crazy is this, Chris...We ain't mentioned Alabama once, which is insane...that speaks clearly to the skepticism people have around Kalen DeBoer right now." (B, 22:41)
- Are people sleeping on Bama? Jesse frames the debate.
Overrated/Underrated Paradox:
Chris:

"If you really take the definition of underrated, I think Bama fits it...I mean, their schedule...sets up pretty well." (A, 23:32)
- Both note how so many SEC teams are tagged as "sleepers"—an impossibility in a competitive league.

8. Georgia or Texas: Best Natty Bet?

[24:38–27:16]

Jesse’s Pick—Texas for National Title, Georgia for SEC:

"It's got to be Texas. ...They might be legitimately the most talented roster in the country...I would still pick Georgia to win the SEC." (B, 24:53)
- Why Georgia? Reliability and coaching consistency under Kirby Smart.
- Caveat: Jesse questions whether Will Muschamp is a true upgrade at DC for Georgia:
  
  "To just say that, you know, he's suddenly going to be the old coach Boom...We'll see." (B, 26:28)

9. LSU vs. Ole Miss—Most Crucial Early Season Game

[27:16–28:28]

High Stakes on September 19th:
Host asks: which program carries more risk with a loss in the LSU-Ole Miss showdown?
- Jesse’s take:
  
  "It's got to be LSU just because of everything that's been built around it. ...He needs to win that game. Whether he can is going to be fascinating." (B, 27:51)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

"Somebody's got to take the losses. And so when I'm just looking at...all these folks dropping their hot seat candidate list and Shane Beamer's at the top at nearly everyone. So something isn't meshing here." (Jesse Simonton, 03:28)
"To me, their season is going to hinge on how fast Jim Knowles as defense...marinates." (Jesse Simonton, 16:14)
"How crazy is this, Chris, we've been talking for I don't know, 20, 25 minutes, whatever. We ain't mentioned Alabama once, which is insane." (Jesse Simonton, 22:41)
"If Tennessee goes 7-5 this year, Vol fans are...gonna rage on Rocky Top with the best of them." (Jesse Simonton, 18:10)
"Trinidad Chambliss...he’s so paramount to what Ole Miss is going to do and as a program this fall..." (Jesse Simonton, 09:37)
"I think Bama fits [the most underrated team]...even looking at their schedule...sets up pretty well." (Chris, 23:32)

Important Timestamps

[00:00] – Introduction & viral Shane Beamer article discussion
[05:27] – SEC teams most likely to regress in 2026
[08:55] – The player who will shape the SEC (Trinidad Chambliss)
[10:27] – Assessing Florida’s prospects under John Sumrall
[13:39] – Tennessee’s expectations and Heupel’s long-term outlook
[18:22] – LSU lane Kiffin, sky-high expectations, and unknowns
[20:54] – Evaluating who’s the “third” SEC contender (OK, A&M, Bama)
[24:38] – Georgia or Texas? Who can snap the SEC’s championship drought
[27:16] – LSU vs. Ole Miss, stakes of their September matchup

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a candid, no-nonsense, and slightly cheeky banter. Both Chris and Jesse oscillate between deep-dive analysis and light-hearted references, never shying from bold takes or calling out inconvenient truths about SEC fandom and expectations. Jesse’s signature is his blend of statistical insight with sharp wit and a willingness to “ruffle feathers”—a tone faithfully captured throughout the show.

Summary

This episode of SEC Unfiltered is an essential listen for college football fans looking to understand where the powers and pitfalls will lie in the 2026 SEC football season. Jesse Simonton brings data, history, and experience, delivering hot takes that are as entertaining as they are informed. From the fallout of his Shane Beamer article, to dissecting SEC’s most overrated/underrated squads, and projecting the league’s most pivotal players and coaches—this is “talking season” at its sharpest.

For more from Jesse Simonton:
surrendercobra.com on Substack | @JesseReSimonton on X

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Transcript32 lines

[00:00]
A
Kick off the 2026 college football season. Just around the corner today, we have a very special guest talking all things SEC football, college football, everything in between. Jesse Simonton, one of the best in the business. He's a national college football reporter, also has his own substack where he publishes his own work called Surrender Cobra. And he was an example this week that it's not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. You rattle cages and ruffle feathers on the social media machine that we all love so dearly. His latest piece on Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks with the headline, you coach at South Carolina to get fired. Shane, we knows that and why Shane Beamer's tenure may end poorly. We're not just going to talk about that, though. SEC football, everything in between. Jesse, really appreciate you taking the time, my friend. And like I said, you know, you're doing something right. And you said this off air when people are writing articles about articles, that is when you know you've struck a chord, my friend. It is talking season. It's banter season. It's one of our favorite times of the year. Really appreciate you taking the time.
[01:04]
B
Thanks for having me, Chris. I mean, it's, it's funny. South Carolina fans, I have long, you, you have a, A, A deep history with them. I've, you know, being an SEC beat writer before, kind of moving my way up. I, you know, both at Florida and Tennessee, you know, I have long time a champion that Gamecock fans, it doesn't matter if they're 4 and 8, 2 and, you know, 2 and 10, 8 and 4, whatever, they're going to fill up Williams Bryce Stadium. But they can also be a little sensitive and, and clearly I think we kind of saw that. You know, you alluded to the piece. The irony is, Chris, the headline actually was not, you coach at South Carolina to get fired. That is, you know, that, that was a provocative tweet that I put. But the headline was that, you know, I just think that ultimately Shane Beamer's time is cooked. And South Carolina fans, whether it was the, the, the fired statement or even the thesis that Shane Beamer, you know, suddenly can't turn it around, I think that's what they kind of took umbrage with.
[01:59]
A
Yeah. And Jesse, like I said, I promise I'm not going to spend, we're not going to spend the entire time talking about that. I don't even know if it was on my listed topic to discuss with you until I saw the piece come out. And again, Highly encourage everybody to go over to Surrender Cobra. You do great work over there at your substack. Super entertaining and valuable information for the common college football fan. Not just sec, but talk to me about this piece specifically, what inspired it. I thought you hit on a lot of points that were valid from the standpoint of the history and the way the tenure is going. I could also see the other side and understand some of the pushback from the standpoint that I would actually agree with this point I saw somebody make. If anything, I think you could argue that South Carolina at times has been too patient in their history with head coaches. This even goes just beyond football. But just talk to me about the piece, what inspired it and what the pushback was like in the interaction and the back and forth. I know a lot of it is just noise and chatter, but I know some folks and some colleagues you and I both call friends and respect, they had their opinions on it as well.
[02:59]
B
Yeah. And you know, I will say it's funny that I have long, you know, and you, you, you've kind of discussed this, I think, throughout your various ventures that you gotta throw. You got to learn how to have a thick skin. And, and so what, you know, folks putting, you know, Twitter clown emojis or what, that stuff doesn't, it, that stuff doesn't bother me and just goes right over my head. The thesis of the piece, frankly was that, you know, again, you said talking season. So a lot of folks in the content space, many who I'm really respect and I, you know, I kind of name drop David Pollock as one of them out there that have kind of been championed. The fact that South Carolina could be this breakout team in 2026. Well, I also had a tweet earlier in the week that a lot of folks, you could list a dozen breakout teams in the sec. Somebody's got to take the losses. And so when I'm just looking at the, the where I kind of was inspired by it, the fact that that happened and then at the very same time, all these folks were dropping their hot seat candidate list and Shane Beamer's at the top at near everyone. So something isn't meshing here. They can't both be this breakout team and have a guy who's on the cusp of being fired. And so the way I just kind of looked at it is that to date, and, and I, and I noted this in the piece as well. I mean, you know, Indiana has changed the math here. What, what was possible yesterday is now not the impossible tomorrow. South Carolina could become a national champion if they do land the right coach. But it's going to take the perfect amalgamation which Indiana hit having an all time great coach into Kurt Signetti, having the number one pick at quarterback and having a roster, you know, resource roster unlike they'd ever seen before. So far, Shane Beamer's entire tenure had just been, has just been defined by wild swings. You know, they win 6 of 8, they lose 8 of 10, they lose, you know, they went, they go 5, 0 and then they lose 7 of 9. And so even if you do like what South Carolina brings back this fall, Lenora Sellers, you know, obviously Colin Stewart's going to be a top five, you know, pick coming off the edge. Dylan Stewart, excuse me, top five pick coming off the edge. I like Swain. I think the offensive line should be better. I still think the schedule is a gauntlet and frankly, I think even if Beamer is able to coach his way to a 7 and 5 or 8 and 4 season this fall, there's nothing that says he's not going to have another, you know, backslide in 27, in 2027, especially without all these guys. And so that's kind of how I came to this piece, you know, as a whole.
[05:27]
A
Yeah, Jesse, it does feel like a vicious cycle to your point. And I think 7 and 5, we've said it on our airwaves and I'm sure you'd agree. I think 7 and 5 would be probably the worst case scenario for that program this season because you're still kind of stuck in the mud with no real long term answers of is this the guy or is this not? It's really not a definitive answer that you receive from that result. Jesse, like I said, I want to move off that and talk the entire sec and I, I want to stick with the theme of it. I really appreciate the fact that you lean into and I think more people should, although I know some are, are scared to ruffle feathers that, excuse me, not everybody's going to go 8 and 4, not everybody's going to go 10 and 2, not everybody's going to the College Football Playoff. There are going to be teams that lose football games mathematically. It has to happen. So when you look at the SEC landscape this year, most of the times I'm starting with Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, the College Football Playoff contenders, the favorites. Let's go to the bottom of the conference and maybe not even the very, very bottom because I think it's well understood that, you know, Arkansas, Kentucky, most likely, maybe Mississippi State, unless You think Jeff Lebby and Camario Taylor, they're going to pop. Who are the teams for you this season that you feel like the fan bases going in don't realize the losses are about to pile up? Because I'll admit there were a few from me that when I went through and we started doing records and projections that I was surprised how low I was on these teams. But to your point, Jesse, somebody has to lose football games and not everybody can go eight and four.
[06:54]
B
Yeah, I mean, well, one of the teams you did mention that I think has been another kind of offseason darling. So I'll just quickly say that I think, I think a lot of folks like Will Stein at Kentucky, but I do think I joked in a, in a, in a predicted order of finish, you know, kind of takeaways piece recently that I think that endorsement's gonna have to wait because Kentucky's schedule is, is not fun this year. They may be, they may be favored literally against one power four team all year. So the losses are going to come there. The other, the other fan base that I think can be a tad sensitive online, which can, can be tad to many is Missouri. And, and I think they're a team that if you, if you told of Tigers fans that they maybe have missed their window with Eli and maybe Eli missed his own window, I. E. You know, I think he was sniffing around Penn State and several other jobs. It's not, you know, so, so secret that he really had his kind of eye on Florida a couple years ago, but they ended up retaining Billy Napier so that, you know, the time just didn't work out there. Missouri fancies itself, I think, higher in the SEC than what they are now. They were picked to finish 10th. So to say that they're going to take some losses isn't some, you know, great prediction. But I think Tiger fans have a better or think higher of their team than maybe what I, what I think they're going to be in store for this fall. The other team or I don't know, the other. If you just threw out, you know, it surprised me that Oklahoma was seventh in the, in the predicted finish, which suggests that a lot of media folks do not buy in that, you know, Brent Venables is going to keep that thing humming. I'm a little bit higher on the Sooners, but, but I think that if you say, hey, Matier is still a one man band, I don't believe that the offensive line is going to be better and they still can't run the ball. It's not hard to see Oklahoma really receding to the pack than what they did a year ago.
[08:43]
A
Jessica, in your mind switching gears a little bit, who's the one player, when I asked this question, the first one that comes to mind, the player that will shape the sec picture in 2026,
[08:55]
B
I think it's got to be Trinidad Chambliss. To me, just because I think that again, if Ole Miss being third stunned me getting picked third. And, and I think because that's it's either a an indictment, maybe not an indictment, but it's either a commentary that folks don't think that Lane Kiffin was important as he perhaps was to to to all that success there, or the counter would be they think that Golding is going to kind of continue to just keep things humming by literally just letting Trinidad Chambliss do crazy Trinidad Shambliss stuff. Now who's to say that this guy who is a D2 guy who came out of nowhere, you know, suddenly maybe that. What. What if the Cinderella slipper comes off? I don't think Ole Miss fans are are exploring that possibility either. I don't think that's going to happen. I think the kid's a special talent. But you go back and watch that game against Georgia at the end of the year when they won the amount of just absurd Johnny Manziel s, you know, just pull a rabbit out of your ass plays that he made. Is that sustainable? I mean, is that. I mean, obviously they got Lacy back there. There's some other, you know, it's, he's not doing it on his own a la. A John Mateer, but I think, but he is so paramount to what Ole Miss is going to do and as a program this fall because of the wildness and all the switching parts between LSU and players, coaches, guys going from both programs back and forth. I just think that he's kind of is going to be the most important player in the league for a particular team.
[10:27]
A
Jesse, I know you've been close to the Florida Gators program previously, so I want to ask you, going into year one of John Sumrall, am I setting myself up for failure again? Am I crazy to be drinking the Kool Aid going into year one of John Sumrall? I look at this roster and I feel like, like it's so easy to fall in love with the roster. I think the schedule, while certainly not easy, sets up fairly well for them. And I think Florida is a team that could be knocking on the door at least of scaring the college football Playoff. But Jesse, I say all that and say that I've said that before. I, heck, I said that under Billy Napier. Heck, I said it as recently as last year and we all know what happened. Your thoughts on the Florida Gators, John Sumrall, what chance do you give them at surprising to the point of getting to say eight or nine wins in his first year.
[11:16]
B
So I saw that you had him going nine and three and I did smile at that.
[11:20]
A
I hate it.
[11:21]
B
I did, I did smile at that. Look, it's funny.
[11:24]
A
Easy to fall in love with that Gator logo if I'm being totally honest. You see it, you're like, this is what Florida should be doing.
[11:31]
B
It's also easy to fall in love with the roster. And I have said, I have said this many times over the last year that Billy Napier had a major Saturday's problem. But, but the problem, you know, during the, during the week in terms of getting guys to commit to Florida was not an issue. That roster is in really good shape and Sumrall deserves credit for retaining all these guys, getting Miles and Jaden Ball and, and the receivers to all come back and to stay at Florida because they could have been, you know, you know, high dollar guys in the portal. Someone else also, you know, I joke, I joked in a recent piece that his Q rating just keeps going up. Everything he does, folks are just falling, you know, and this is the time for it, right? It's August. There's every team. 0, 0. You know, the optimism, Optimism's rampant. I just, I'm curious to see how quickly, you know, the whole Buster Faulkner thing works. And it is going to be fascinating because if they catch lightning in a bottle this season, you're talking about an offensive coordinator that's going to be here for a year and then John Summerall is going to have to go hire another because Buster Faulkner is going to be a head coach. And yet every Florida fan would take that problem a year from now because that means they're probably having some real success. You're nine and three, you know, you're a fringe playoff team. So I, I could, I think that they're going to bite somebody. I think the Gators are going to bite somebody this year. Are they going to be, you know, consistent enough where you are winning all these games? Not just, you know, again, we. The talent's there. They beat Texas a year ago and then they still went 4 and 8. So it was a clearly a coaching issue. If they can shore up the special teams and how good is the offensive line I think that's ultimately going to kind of dictate how good the, how good they're going to be successful on a week to week basis this fall. I didn't, I just learned this stat today. I don't know if you knew this somehow. Florida's never had a thousand yard rusher in back to back seasons. Not even with EMT Smith or all these guys. And so can Ball do that? I mean obviously they're paying him like he better. They're certainly paying him like he better. But a lot of that again it's going to fall on how good can the offensive line be.
[13:39]
A
Yeah, the way John Somerall taught when he got the job. They certainly sounds like they're going to give it to him enough where he'll have the opportunity. By the way, you big pedicure guy. I know John Sumrall came out and said he or his wife came out and said he likes to get pedicures. You ever had a pedicure before?
[13:52]
B
I actually have not. My wife was actually talking about, she just got, she just got her nails done yesterday and was like, you'd love this. We're literally laughing about something. Right? I know, it's just like I'm not anti it at all. I'm, I love, I, I get deep tissue massages. I'm all for self care but you know, it just, it's a time thing. But I got no problem with it. I'm not, you know, I'm not Orloski out here poo pooing it.
[14:13]
A
Yeah, don't knock it till you try it. I've only had I think two or three in my life but it is a, it's a soothing experience if nothing else. I know the program, Jesse. I know that you're really, really familiar with that being the Tennessee balls. And I'm right down the road from them here and you know, I've got a lot of Tennessee buddies and I hear the way they talk and there's, you know, they're, they're, they're getting very antsy with Josh Hyple. Obviously Tennessee fans have some of the highest expectations in the conference. All they want is for it to feel like 98. And after what happened in 24, you go to the College Football Playoff. And I think once you get a taste of it, especially for a program like that, anything short of that is not going to be sufficient. I think Tennessee is one of these programs, the new age of college football, right, wrong or indifferent, they feel as if they should be in the playoff Every single year. No excuse will be sufficient as to why they are not. Your thoughts on Josh Hyple, the pressure on him. They obviously just got the commitment from dgg, the big running back that they're spending all this money on. Faison, Brandon as a young talent who could be the next star at quarterback in this league. Is he their starter? We'll see. Your thoughts on what Josh Hypo needs to do to steady the ship and reaffirm that he's the guy for the long term, or maybe you don't think he is the guy for the long term. What do you, what do you make of the balls? And not just where they sit in regards to going into the season, but where they sit as a program as a whole right now.
[15:31]
B
Yeah. So we're in lockstep on, on the kind of the macro point that you just made though, that, you know, all these SEC fan base, it's, it's a lot like, you know, you have guys wanting to name their top 10 NBA players and they name 15 guys. You know, every SEC fan base thinks they're, they should be a playoff team, but there's only so many playoff spots. Every SEC fan base thinks they should be a top 10 recruiting class, but there's only 10 spots. And so Tennessee absolutely is smack dab in the middle of that. On a macro level, I think there are reasons to be a bit concerned about Josh Hypo's program in terms of kind of what, you know, he's, he's had these hot starts, whether it was at UCF and now at Tennessee and how much is that on the previous guys that he kind of inherited and now that it's completely his own show, is he relying? You know, is. But then you say, hey, they did just invest and they got DGG, who's going to be a top, you know, 20 guy in the country. Faison. Brandon's a five star quarterback. I, I, at Serendip, literally just last week, I kind of had a piece how to spot a college football playoff sleeper. And I kind of went through nine metrics that kind of check all these different boxes. And Tennessee hit everyone. Now Florida checked a bunch of boxes. Virginia Tech checked a bunch of boxes. Usc, but the Vols have them all. To me, their season is going to hinge on how fast Jim Knowles as defense, which typically takes a year or two to marinate, had great success at Oklahoma State, obviously won a national championship at Ohio State. But even at those two stops, year one was a bit of a slog. And Tennessee can't afford, cannot afford a slog. When you're talking about starting a true freshman quarterback, I love the pieces around whoever they have at quarterback. I think the offensive line may be the best in the SEC this fall. Obviously they got a thousand yard running back. Staley is an underrated receiver, you know. Matthews former 5 star so they got, they got a lot of nice pieces there. But you're talking about starting a true freshman which making the College Football Playoff. I think Julian Sayan is one of the only ones to lead a, a, A team. You know, in the 12 team there's there's like one or two. So that, that's just an uphill battle to start. And then you're talking about again a new coaching staff, a bunch of new pieces. And we're talking about also the investment. I mean it is, I think they're doing right by the kid because clearly he needs some help. But Chaz Coleman, I mean that's a two million dollar sunk cost. And when you're talking about this day and age of how do you kind of allocate resources and all that, that's difficult. If Tennessee goes 7 and 5 this year, Vol fans are we, we've seen and I've been there personally, you know, they can, they can rage on rocky top with the best of them and, and you're gonna see some rage If Tennessee goes 7, 5, even, even 8 and 4. I think a lot of Tennessee fans are just gonna say hey, that's not good enough. Not for what we, not for the investments we're making.
[18:23]
A
Yeah. Jesse, the days of fan bases celebrating going 8 and 4 and winning outback bowls are long gone in the past, that is for sure. Lane Kiffin and lsu. Jesse, simply put, are you buying the hype and how do you, how do you quantify success in year one? Because I think it's interesting he takes over. I thought the expectations for year one were pretty, pretty reasonable, pretty realistic. I understand you spend tons of money in the portal, but we have seen them continue to escalate over the off season and deep into the preseason. Going from realistic expectations to playoff or bus to the boys over at ESPN SEC Network, what have you saying? It's national title or bust. Where do you fall in that conversation? And again, are you buying the hype with the Tigers?
[19:08]
B
I'm, I'm on the, it's national title or bus for Kiffin as at lsu, not, not necessarily in year one. I mean he's made that his own, basically. His own. He set those own parameters with, with the way he, he exited Ole Miss, in my opinion, but year one. To say, hey, this guy with 60 new faces needs to win a national title is a bit absurd, you know, on its face. However, I'm, you know, how, how long is this social media, you know, embargo. That self embargo he's put on gonna last because I think we both know that if he starts winning, Lane Kibbin's gonna start tweeting. And, and if he's. If they lose the Clemson, you know, maybe, maybe it stays quiet as a church mouth. So I am fascinated to see how it plays out. I have no, I honestly have no. My, my, my, my hottest. Or it's. It's like the inverse of a hot take. I have no idea how LSU is going to be this year. I, I don't think that anybody can know. Just with, I mean, you're talking about a quarterback that's got a foot injury that I know he's allegedly healthy now, but didn't participate in spring, is surrounded by just an absurd amount of new faces. How is this thing gonna actually coalesce? It better, obviously. I mean, have you seen the lsu? And I know because you guys have gone through all the different records and stuff. I'm not sure folks understand that, like LSU September schedule is just full of land mines and that's just the first month of the season. Then, you know, when you're talking about what the rest of the slate they have. So is eight. Are they one of these teams, you know, circle back early in our conversation. They could be one of these teams that are going to take some losses that no Tiger fan and I don't think Lane Kiffin either is expecting. But it is a plausible scenario considering how much newness there is, you know, in the bayou there.
[20:55]
A
Jesse, we'll save Georgia and Texas here for a moment. That next batch of teams, I would say Oklahoma, Texas A and M, Alabama. I mean, you can maybe even throw LSU in there, Ole Miss, who are you buying the most stock in out of that group? Because it feels like a foregone conclusion. We saw the media vote on it. One, two, Georgia, Texas. And I. I don't want to say that as an insult to any other programs, fan bases, whatever, but it just feels like everybody's under the assumption it's those two teams, those the two to be. And then there's a gap. Who's the third one for you that you feel like, hey, like this is a team that could jump up. They could knock Georgia or Texas down a peg and, and challenge to get to Atlanta, maybe be one of the SEC's better shots at winning a national title.
[21:42]
B
So it's funny, if I'm taking a coach, I would take Mike Elko, but I like Oklahoma's roster better. And so even though I'm not the biggest Brent Venables believer, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna, I would say the Sooners. And that's why it surprised me that they were picked seventh and, and you know, Texas A and M again is this. Can they sustain success? They've never won 10 games two years in a row. You know, that's what Mike Elko is trying to do this fall. Oklahoma, you're talking about elite special teams. They got the best punter kicker in the country or in the sec they got, you know, Satania, one of the better returners. And I just love that defense. And so if you think that Matier is going to be healthy and they can find a way to run the ball, which obviously was a huge issue, why not Oklahoma? Also it's. How crazy is this? Chris, We've been talking for I don't know, 20, 25 minutes, whatever. We ain't mentioned Alabama once, which is insane. You know, to just that. And that's. And that should, and that speaks clearly to the skepticism people have around Kayla bore right now and how that program finished 2025. The fact that they got pants by Georgia in Atlanta and then they did beat Oklahoma, they beat this same Oklahoma team but then they just got curb stomped by Indiana and that's kind of that, that lasting image that people have at the Tide and so are we sleeping on Alabama? Are they really the sixth or seventh or you know, eighth best team or can they find their way back up into the, you know, to, to the top tier where they are competing with Texas and Alabama or Texas and Georgia for the SEC championship. We'll see.
[23:15]
A
Yeah. And Jesse, shame on me for not mentioning. I, I do think from the. If you really take the definition of underrated, I think Bama fits it. I know they have questions, but I mean even looking at their schedule, you know, I was one that fully expected to be a little more down on Bama more than usual, at least for my standards. And you go through the schedule and you're like sets up pretty well. I mean they kind of have a landing strip at the beginning of the season. Not to belittle any of those opponents they open with, but they open with the Kentucky's and the Florida states and the East Carolinas and the, the South Carolinas and The Mississippi states, the world, these are all teams, they're vastly more talented than, if nothing else before they get that big match up against Georgia. So there should be time for them to, to find their stride, at least early in the season. I mean, it does feel like to me, if you wanted to make the case Bama's the most underrated team in the conference, I would listen. But I think that's what makes that group so fascinating. Jesse is, I've heard, overrated and underrated for teams like Bama, Oklahoma A and M, it's like, oh yeah, can't really be both. But there's so many mixed opinions on them that you get both sides of it.
[24:22]
B
For sure. For sure. And that, that speaks to what I was kind of laughing about earlier too, that you know that 10, 10 teams in the SEC are sleepers, but you can't be half. Half the league can't be sleepers. If you're, if you're not even including Georgia and Texas in that group, somebody's got to be taking the losses.
[24:38]
A
Speaking of Georgia and Texas, Jesse, which of those two do you feel gives the SEC the better chance to win the national championship and snack snap this drought of four straight years not even being in that game?
[24:51]
B
I, it's got to be Texas. Just because of how the, the ceiling of that high end talent, it's kind of, it's. They might be legitimately the most talented roster in the country. You know, if you lined up 1 through 85 against everybody else, I think it's, you know, Texas, Oregon and Ohio State. And I say that, and it's funny because I would pick, I would still pick Georgia to win the sec. I think I, I think it is an indictment, particularly on Steve Sarkeesian, that Texas was not picked because folks, and rightfully so, have more faith that Kirby Smart on a week in and week out basis is going to deliver a competent competitive football team. They're not going to stub their toe like Texas did against a 4 and 8 Florida. They find a way to win that game. And so, but if you're talking about then making the College Football Playoff and winning two or three games, I think I, I'm just. The ceiling there, I think is just a little bit higher with Texas, with Arch Manning, you know, with Colin Simmons, you get Rasheed Biles. I will say this, I'm also a little, I'm very, I don't know how much you guys have talked about it here. I'm curious to see, you know, everyone is just kind of rubber stamped that Will Muschamp's going to be this upgrade at defensive coordinator. I love Will. I think Boom's hilarious. He and I have, he, he, he and I have had a kind of a funny relationship for years, dating back when I was a beat writer for Florida and then years on after and what he did, kind of working as a, you know, conciliar and lieutenant for Kirby Smart, clearly worked out really well, Will going back to his alma mater. But he was not a primary defensive play caller. He was not calling the shots. That was Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann, you know, taking the heavy burden there. He has not done that in a decade. That's a long time. And so to, to just say that, you know, he's suddenly going to be the old coach Boom, where he's, you know, punching the whiteboard from the famous gif at Texas, you know, way back in 2005. We'll see. We'll see. They're paying him like he better. You know, he's the highest, I think the highest paid defensive quarter in the country. But I'm just curious to see that, how that plays out. But again, if I'm talking about just raw ceiling, I think Texas has the best chance of winning the national championship. But I would still pick, and I agreed with the poll. It made sense for me that Georgia was the pick to actually win the league.
[27:17]
A
Jesse Simonton, one of the best in the business. Jesse, final thing, we'll get you out of here. We talked a lot about LSU and Ole Miss. Of course, they are back in the news. Ole miss is suing two of their former players. Two now, LSU Tigers zeroing in on that September 19 matchup because things are going to continue to boil and probably boil over when toe meets leather in that football game. Heck, even when we get to the week of that game, a loss in that game would be more detrimental for which of those two teams, LSU or Ole Miss?
[27:49]
B
I, I, to me, it's got to be lsu just because of everything that's been built around it. I mean, I, I think there's still, folks are still kind of curious to see, you know, what is Pete Golding going to be like as a first year head coach. I don't, I don't think the Ole Miss fans are gonna, you know, ring them in the streets if they don't win that game. Whereas everything LSU's done, the actions that Kiffin took, you know, to Ole Miss, the fact that it's on record that he, I mean, he basically could have had a statue built there, you know, and and and that was not good enough. He needs to win that game. Whether he can is going to be fascinating but he needs to win that game.
[28:28]
A
Jesse Simonton Surrender Cobra is the sub stack. You can find them all across social media as well. National college football writer, reporter, personality what have you. Jesse really appreciate you taking the time. Let folks know how they directly can access all of your work and all your great content.
[28:44]
B
Yeah I appreciate it. Surrender Cobra sub stack you can find it surrendercover.com but also it's the easiest way just to go to sub stack type in Surrender Cobra. You can follow me on X at. Jesse Re Simonton so appreciate you having me Chris it's always good to hop on and and chat about some SEC football. So glad to join the show today.
[29:04]
A
Absolutely Jesse Appreciate you taking the time man. We'll definitely do it again soon.
[29:07]
B
Thanks dude. Sa. What's up with it.