Chris and Matt are back for Espresso Martini. Nearly a month into Operation Epic Fury, Washington appears to be laying the groundwork for potential ground operations inside Iran—but the two options on the table, seizing Kharg Island or securing Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile, are both far harder to execute than advertised. They dig into what a nuclear material extraction would actually require, and what growing strain on U.S. interceptor stockpiles and carrier availability signals about the campaign's trajectory. Then, a deep dive into the Guardian's reconstruction of how CIA and MI6 accurately predicted Russia's 2022 invasion—and why no one listened—and what that intelligence failure says about the long-term costs of credibility. Finally, the Space Force's pivot toward offensive counter-space as China's satellite constellation surpasses 1,900 orbital assets.

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Articles discussed in today’s episode

"Trump’s Next Decision: Whether to Retrieve Iran’s Nuclear Fuel, Whatever the Risk" by David E. Sanger | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/opinion/iran-nuclear-materials-war.html

"I Spent Two Decades Securing Nuclear Materials. Getting at Iran’s Would Not Be Easy." by Andrew Weber | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear-fuel.html

"Special Ops To Get The Uranium" by Cheryl Rofer | Lawyers, Guns & Money: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2026/03/special-ops-to-get-the-uranium

"What Boots On The Ground In Iran Could Entail, According To Former CENTCOM Commander" by Howard Altman | The War Zone: https://www.twz.com/news-features/former-centcom-commander-on-what-u-s-boots-on-the-ground-in-iran-could-entail

"A war foretold: How the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them" by Shaun Walker | The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia

"China’s Growing Armada Of Spy Satellites Is Pushing Space Force To Go On The Offensive" by Joseph Trevithick & Howard Altman | The War Zone: https://www.twz.com/space/chinas-growing-armada-of-spy-satellites-is-pushing-space-force-to-go-on-the-offensive

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Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.