← See Ball Get Ball with David Pollack
See Ball Get Ball with David Pollack
CFB Week 9 PICKS: Ole Miss-Oklahoma, Missouri-Vanderbilt, Texas A&M-LSU and MORE
00:47:46
David Pollack PICKS Ole Miss-Oklahoma, Missouri-Vanderbilt, Texas A&M-LSU and MORE | CFB Week 9 0:00 Ole Miss-Oklahoma 7:44 Missouri-Vanderbilt 13:20 Texas A&M-LSU 20:29 USF-Memphis 24:20 BYU-Iowa State 20:14 Baylor-Cincinnati 33:20 Houston-Arizona State 40:18 Illinois-Washington 44:47 Upset Watch
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- [00:01]
David Holland
This Friday, the NBA on prime tips off with their debut doubleheader.
- [00:05]
Brent Rollins
First up, Boston brings the action to.
- [00:07]
David Holland
The Garden as the Celtics face the New York Knicks. Then out west, it's a battle of the superpowers as the Lakers try to go against the relentless pace of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Celtics, Knicks, Timberwolves. Lakers. Coverage starts Friday at 7 o' clock Eastern, only on Prime. Thursday night football is on and it's only on Prime Video. This week, the Minnesota Vikings head west to face the Los Angeles Chargers. Coverage begins at 7pm Eastern with football's best party, TNF tonight presented by Verizon. Not a Prime member. Not a problem. Simply sign up for a 30 day free trial. It's the Vikings and chargers Thursday at 7pm Eastern only on Prime Video. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com amazonprime for details.
- [00:57]
Commercial Announcer
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- [02:00]
David Holland
Well, it's David Pollock and I think people are going to learn what kind of ball player he is. He's got a heart of a lion. I'm really proud of that kid.
- [02:06]
Brent Rollins
This is C Ball.
- [02:07]
David Holland
Get Ball.
- [02:09]
Brent Rollins
College football's top show for football analysis, predictions and coach interviews. Now here's your host, three time all.
- [02:16]
David Holland
American, seven time Emmy award winner, David Holland. Hi everybody. Welcome on in to Sea Ball. Get ball. Me and Brent Rollins. This is the time of the week where we where we do the picks. It's week nine. Holy Cow, it's week nine. That's weird. Like, we've kind of flown through the season, so we'll pick some upsets. We'll. We'll pick some. Some teams that we think are going to go down. And this is the time of the year, man, where it's. We're starting to. We're starting to figure it out. I think you have a good grasp now. It's like, who's injured, you know, like, who's. Who's playing with extra motivation, who's at home. Like, there's a. There's a lot of things obviously, that go into it, but I think this week, too, in the sec, just like last week, we might have some start to get some separation and start to get some of those SEC teams out of the, out of the filter. I know when, when we, when we do the bracket every week, it's like, bull crap. You can't have that many SEC teams. It's just for right now, like, they're going to continue to cannibalize themselves. And this week, Oklahoma and Ole Miss is going to be that one to start with. Right. Like, that's going to. Whoever loses is going to fall well out of contention, which means other teams are going to continue to slide up and then Brent, everybody won't be as upset.
- [03:24]
Brent Rollins
Well, it's one where if you were predicting what it would be, you wouldn't predict six SEC teams to be there.
- [03:32]
David Holland
No.
- [03:32]
Brent Rollins
Like, it's just not going to happen. But if you're just looking at sort of where the college football world is today. Okay. And our Nugget Platter game are. Our game we all want to see is Ole Miss Oklahoma. And actually, the point that you bring up, I think is probably the first actual talking point about this game. I don't. This is not a loser leaves town match. This is a. You. Your. Your margin for error is basically gone.
- [03:58]
Sponsor Voice
Yes.
- [03:59]
Brent Rollins
You have to run the table. And looking at the schedules, who can afford to lose this game and potentially still run the table? I think that's more so Ole Miss than Oklahoma. I think Oklahoma schedule is a little tougher down the road, but Oklahoma is a foreign, last I checked, four and a half point favorite. So this is at Oklahoma.
- [04:18]
David Holland
Yeah. Which again, that's. That's where you always start. But Ole Miss, they. They've been in a lot of close games this year. That, that's one thing to note. Like, obviously the, the LSU was a big win. We'll continue to look at that because is LSU near as good as we thought they Were I. I'm going to say no. Like, I'm not.
- [04:36]
Brent Rollins
They might crater. Yeah, they might.
- [04:38]
David Holland
They might think and who knows. But Ole Miss is five of their seven games have been decided by eight points or less and they're four and one in those games. Those numbers don't usually hold true. Like, and there's a lot of teams that are like that. There's a lot of teams that have, have done that. But last week we saw him against Georgia. Man, Crisp, the passing game was good. You better have a timing rhythm passing attack against. Oh you. Because they're going to get to you. They're. Venables wakes up in blitzes. Like that's how he, that's how he starts his day right. Like and think the, the Lane Kiffin. If you haven't heard it like fantastic. We'll probably put it on podium Kings. Just, you know, talking about the signs with Venables and that's been talked about for years. Like years and how people have handled those are very unique. I can't wait to watch how old Miss handles it because the, the way to handle that is to go, you know, quickly up to the line of scrimmage, make a call and go. The way to handle that is to hide. Hide your personnel a little bit. Move shift and, and, and I remember Ohio State doing it. Simpson in the, in the champion or in the bowl game. But I'll be, that's one of the things I'll be watching is, is how they handle that. But Oklahoma, man, like nine points per game, like, and you think about them a year ago, like how good they were and the offense kind of wasted it this year, obviously the offense much better. So it's, it's helping them out. And I think I liked what I saw from Mattier last week. It wasn't perfect and it wasn't John Mattier, John Freaking. But, but it was John Mattier. It was much better. It was more accurate. The ball wasn't still elite of elite, but they got the running game going. They got him going a little bit and I think that's a good sign going into a big game.
- [06:28]
Brent Rollins
Yeah, we talked about the running game stuff on Monday, but if you look at sort of first four weeks material, had an 86.4 passing grade. Pff. Passing grade. It's 36.6 the past two weeks down to 60% completion and that now some of it is Texas and their defense, but that average depth of target went from eight and a half to six and a half. So the balls, they're Trying to protect him, the ball's out quick, that sort of stuff. But the running game is going to matter. But the point you said about Venables and blitz, I wonder if that's like his phone, like his alarm when his phone is some sort of sound. That's a blitz like sound or it just says blitz really loud or something like that.
- [07:02]
David Holland
He's one of the most unique personalities I've ever met in the sport, let me tell you. I mean like he is, he is very, very unique. Like very. I mean, I mean, listen, I'm weird too, but like very.
- [07:15]
Brent Rollins
Is he John Fabris?
- [07:16]
David Holland
Like yes. Him and John Fabris get along really, really well for that. I would say like extremely intense. Extremely. Like he's got a cool personality and he can kick it a little bit, but a little bit like it's business. Like it's a business trip, it's a business practice. Like that's why, that's why, that's why him taking over play calling duty. And when you watch the defense, they play with a little extra edge, man, that's, that's what Clemson needed to get over the top. You take on the personality of your coach, man, and to have your lead guy having that much juice and everything being so important. That's why they're giving up holding the leading the nation and giving up 231 or 13 yards a game. That's why they got 28 sacks. Like they play with a, with an extra edge. And one of the best defensive minds versus Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weiss Jr. Were some of the best offensive minds. They dominated Kirby Smart for three quarters. That fourth quarter might get taken a peek at a little bit by Venables and I'm just, I'm fascinated to see this because Ole Miss could lose two in a row. I actually think they do. I think, oh you wins this football game, you know, them being at home, I think their, their coverage will be because of, because of the pressure. It will look different. But I just don't think the running game was abandoned last week by Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin. Man, you can't do that versus Venables. Like you can't do that versus, oh you. It's going to end badly and I think Oklahoma is going to take care of business this week.
- [08:47]
Brent Rollins
I actually have Oklahoma winning as well in the part you talked about pressure and blitzing and all that. So Trinidad Chambliss is one of two quarterbacks in the power four whose passing grade is as good or better under pressure than it is in a clean pocket and like he played really well outside of like one late throw that he just missed to the tight end against Georgia short, but played really well in that environment because much was made about him playing in a big time environment for the first time on the road. Like that. Got that sort of under his belt. Now he goes here. Can he handle that this week? I I agree. I think Oklahoma gets them a little too much. I got 26, 24. I think it's. I do think it's really close. I don't think either team gets in the 30s and I do think Oklahoma wins.
- [09:36]
David Holland
I got a 2717. I actually think Oklahoma is going to roll. I think they're going to take care of business. This is a real good story about Drew, a real United Airlines customer. After almost four years of treatments, I was finally cancer free. My mom's like, where do you want to go to celebrate?
- [09:50]
Sponsor Voice
I'm like, let's go somewhere.
- [09:51]
David Holland
TR and then Pilot hopped on the intercom and started talking about me and I was like, what is going on here? My wife beat cancer too and I.
- [09:58]
Sponsor Voice
Wanted to celebrate his special moment.
- [10:00]
Brent Rollins
That's Bill, a real United pilot.
- [10:02]
David Holland
We brought him drinks and donuts.
- [10:04]
Sponsor Voice
We all signed a card.
- [10:05]
David Holland
I was smiling ear to ear. Best flight ever.
- [10:08]
Commercial Announcer
For sure.
- [10:08]
David Holland
That's how good leads the way.
- [10:10]
Sponsor Voice
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- [10:31]
Commercial Announcer
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- [11:02]
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- [11:50]
Brent Rollins
All right. Heartburn games. Looks good, tastes good, whole lot of stress and indigestion. We got three of those that are also much like the previous game, close spread. So the first one, Missouri at Vandy College game day, going to Vanderbilt and a Vanderbilt game. Again, I don't think this again, much like the the game before this. I don't think this is a playoff elimination game. But no margin error of our error after this for either team and, and.
- [12:19]
David Holland
Everybody who's watching the brackets and everybody who's complaining, another opportunity just like with the last one, one of those teams are going to disappear from the rankings from the top 12. One of these teams, whoever loses is going to disappear from the top 12 like that. That's what you're going to see. So and it doesn't matter who you cheer for that. That's the good thing about everybody else who's trying to get in the playoffs. But Missouri leads the series 12 to 4. All the streaks in series and stuff like that. When it comes to Vanderbilt, I'm like it doesn't matter because Pavia wasn't there. Really doesn't matter. But Missouri, Missouri's done an unbelievable job. Like 11 of the last 13 games decided by one possession or less since 2023, 11 of 13, they've won. Like they, they really do do a good job of finding ways to win football games and last year versus Vanderbilt was a great example. I mean that was. Vanderbilt was super aggressive at times at fourth down and you know they missed some opportunities that, that, that you know, both of them missed some opportunities and it was a little bit sloppy back and forth. But man, the biggest thing for me is Bo Probula is not going the right direction. Like this offense is not going the right direction and Vanderbilt as much as you, you, we want to talk about Pavia and we want to talk about all the good things and there is a list and I could go down the list of, you know Almost every game. He's getting a rushing TD, he's getting a throwing TD, he's got 22 rushing touchdowns. We could go all down the list. But the biggest thing about their defense, man, like they make plays like they're disruptive. They move all over the place. They're hard to identify who's coming into pressure. They stop the run, which never, they never used to do. Like they used to physically get dominated at the line of scrimmage. They, they turn you over. They got a bunch of fumbles actually. Seven different players with a fumble recovery. Four different guys with an interception. Like it's 11 guys that have made a turnover. So kind of spreading it out. They rotate, they're deep, they're, I think their defense is good enough to absolutely keep them in it. And obviously with their offense they do their job. But I got the Commodores. I'm keeping the non 0% chance alive for the, for the podcast.
- [14:36]
Brent Rollins
I, I, I love it. Missouri hasn't had 30 points in an SEC game in three SEC games. And what's been interesting recently with Fandy is the last few weeks. Cole Spence.
- [14:50]
David Holland
Yep.
- [14:51]
Brent Rollins
The other tight end, not especially last week. Not Eli, not Sours, but the other tight end. 7 catches on 7 targets. 101 yards. The touchdown last week, like you add that another element, another, another and he's like 6, 7, I think 260. Big boy. Another receiving option for Pavia. I did. What's interesting looking watching him is he's actually turning the ball over more this year at least under pressure at least. And making Turner worthy type plays. More belief in himself potentially this year than, than last year. Wasn't as careful with it this year. So as long as he takes care of the football, their offense is so efficient. I think they're going to be just fine in this game and move the ball and score. I got Vandy 30, Mizzou 24. I think Vanderbilt wins as well. And the only element that we haven't seen the past few weeks from Missouri is it's been not so much. Ahmaud Hardy, yeah, he's got a little over 100 yards in the last two games. If he gets rolling, it's a different ball game. Differently different ballgame.
- [15:57]
David Holland
And LSU had the run game going a little bit like they, they were able to do more of that than I thought they would. And, and Prabula, just to give you some stats, he's still at 70. Completion percentage. He's still at 70% for the season. So that's really good. But if you look at his numbers though, he's under 60% in three of the last four games. Like four of his seven interceptions are in the last two games. Like, everybody kind of is understanding where they like to run the football because they like to run it to a specific side and everybody options lack, lack of wide receivers out wide and Norfleet in the red zone. Cover him. Like it's, it's not, it's not a, it's not an offense that has a tremendous amount of talent like, like you saw a year ago, you know, because you got that Luther Burton who's playing, you know, for the Chicago Bears and doing pretty well. Like so I, I, I, I'm with you, man. This Missouri team has been winning, which is all that matters closely. Vanderbilt is a different animal. Yes, you heard me. I just said that out loud. Vanderbilt's a different animal.
- [16:59]
Brent Rollins
It's, it's good to hear you say it. Non zero chance lives though. There's still a non zero chance. They get beat and they just have no margin for error. They gotta, they gotta win out and I don't think they would if based on their schedule. But you know, thinking about it, they go at Texas and at Tennessee. Is there anything that you've from Vanderbilt perspective, like can you, are you looking at those games and being like, no, they can't win those games. No, you're looking at those games as. Yeah, they can compete. Very much so. They can compete.
- [17:25]
David Holland
They're not winning both.
- [17:30]
Brent Rollins
Let's remember that one. Just, just in case. Yeah, that might be one of those old takes exposed.
- [17:34]
Sponsor Voice
Yeah.
- [17:35]
Brent Rollins
Things. Tag it. All right. Next one night game. Speaking of hanging on for dear life, this is a must win for the Tigers. Texas A and M undefeated. Rolling at LSU. A&M is a two and a. Only a two and a half point favorite on the road.
- [17:54]
David Holland
This feels, this feels like, like, this feels like everything, everything going well. Kitchen sink. It feels like the other direction. Like I, I don't, I don't know that I'm, I'm not going to probably pull the trigger and I could give you a lot of reasons why. But, but when you look at A and m, man, first seven and O start since 1994, I mean it's just, it's fun to watch them have success and win. Such a great fan base, such a good team. You know, you got York and Scooby right on or Williams on defense who are really, really good along with, you know, the edges that are a problem for and lsu, that's the biggest thing like losing the Offensive lineman at left tackle. You weren't that great to begin with. Nuss Meyers Dagum hobbling around. He needs pain medication every practice for goodness sakes. Because you haven't been able to protect him. Like there's so many factors that make you go this. There's no way that this is going to have a chance. But here's the thing I want you to hear about this game. This might be the best. This might be the best showcase you will see all year of receivers versus DBs. Like LSU defense is so legit and we've talked about it all year now, now it's leaking a little bit of oil the last couple of weeks, but it's not leaking oil out wide at corner. And I can't wait to watch the one two punch of Casey Concepcion who is almost as good or as good as everyone in the country. And now you get to go against an LSU group that is so good out wide and Delane is the guy that you want to see. Really like that's the guy that. Delane's good, Halsey's good. Like just the secondary is really, really good. Elite wide receivers versus elite DBs. It might not be better to watch in the country at any given point in this season. So that's what I'm really like laser focused in on watching this football game.
- [19:47]
Brent Rollins
And you think about concepcion and Craver. 57 targets for Concepcion, 48 for Craver. The next closest or the next guy's Bethel Roman at 22 targets. It's Delane, it's Woodland, it's Pickett. This the five star freshman that's you know, the tall, the tall lady.
- [20:06]
David Holland
Like there's a ton of them, bro.
- [20:08]
Brent Rollins
That's my exact note in this game was that matchup Delane would Pickett versus Craver and Concepcion. It's going to be phenomenal to watch because so much of what A M's offense has been built on are those two playmakers and there's, you know, no Moss. Oh and now they got the E.J. smith guy running back who's a six year player for them. From originally I think it's Stanford. But last couple games, 13 attempts for 79 yards, 310 plus yard runs. So bringing a little something other than Owens. So like.
- [20:43]
David Holland
Well Owens is good too.
- [20:45]
Brent Rollins
Yes. And he's going to be great. But you need that, that extra something, that one two punch because you had it initially. This is only A&M's third road game.
- [20:55]
David Holland
Yep.
- [20:56]
Brent Rollins
They won the two road games by a total of four points. Yeah, you Feeling it. You feeling on the road for him.
- [21:04]
David Holland
Bro, I'm telling you, I'm just, I'm not gonna. I don't have. I'm.
- [21:08]
Brent Rollins
This is one of those games.
- [21:09]
David Holland
I don't have the faith in lsu, but there's two games this week that I'm like. I feel like there's a really good chance that it's gonna happen. And I'm not going to bet against A and M because I think LSU being beat up, being one dimensional and A and M being so elite at that dimension, that's what, that's the point. Like, they're so elite at pass rush, they're so elite at third down, and they're so good in the coverage. Like, I just. I don't have the cojones to pull the trigger. But I do like what I saw from LSU's offense. I don't like what I've seen from the defense. Whit Weeks is obviously a big deal in that defense, and if he can get back, it would make a huge difference. But I'm. I'm going A and M. But I do think this is a super close game. I mean, I literally wrote down the score. I think 23 to 20 or something like that. Like, that's how close I feel it's going to be. A 27. 23 is what I wrote down. Yep.
- [22:01]
Brent Rollins
And I got A and M as well because for the reason that you mentioned is when you have an anchor, like, I talk all the time about weak link systems in football, and if you have a weak link and the other team is good at attacking said weak link, that's bad news for you.
- [22:17]
David Holland
It's not good.
- [22:17]
Brent Rollins
A is good at attacking where your weaknesses, and that's on the offensive line of protection, man and nuss. Meyer's not Taylor Green. He's not gonna, you know, free roam it with the, with the legs. I got a M as well. I wrote 30 to 24. So yeah, it's. But if you get a turnover early, maybe a pick six or something like that, tip ball. And then the night game and the crowd and the environment takes over.
- [22:44]
David Holland
I got, I got. I got one more nugget for you. These teams have played a bunch in the series meetings since 2017, and it's pretty simple. The home team has won every single game in this meeting, every single one since 2017. So there's another reason for you to go Death Valley at night. I just can't do it because I haven't seen enough from the Tigers.
- [23:11]
Brent Rollins
How hot do you think BK seat is if they, they do not get this dub. Geez.
- [23:18]
David Holland
53 million reasons why. I mean that buyout's 53. Cuz that's a lot. I mean I can just tell you, I mean even like my pastor at my church, our church, Brent is an LSU fan and he was like, he just, he doesn't fit. He doesn't fit. Like that's exactly what he said. Like he just doesn't fit our culture. He doesn't fit lsu. Like he's, he's very, you know, open about that. And I'm like, golly, even Pastor Jay, like doesn't want you there. That's not a good thing. But Brian Kelly, the biggest thing with Brian Kelly is he's a different. He's not an LSU guy. Right. Like he just doesn't have the, the sub. Even at O, obviously had some, all kinds of wacky things going off off the field that we don't have time to even go into. And, and the wackiness, that was him and his life at that point. But he was a Cajun. He was one of them. And so I think not being one of them, I don't think it's been great for, for him. But just when. And that will start to obviously go away. But just remember the investment LSU made in the portal last year. Like it was not, like it was not a small investment.
- [24:25]
Brent Rollins
They invested the Underwood money and spent it elsewhere.
- [24:28]
David Holland
They spent it.
- [24:29]
Brent Rollins
Yeah, yeah. Alabama in two weeks after this for LSU. So yeah, they need this one bad G5 game. Big time USF South Florida at Memphis. USF is a four and a half point favorite. Since the Miami game. USF has averaged 57 points a game.
- [24:51]
David Holland
So good.
- [24:52]
Brent Rollins
They are rolling so good.
- [24:54]
David Holland
They're. They're just lost to UAB and their.
- [24:57]
Brent Rollins
Quarterbacks banged up and their quarterbacks banged up. Besides that giving them any shot, I don't. Last I saw, he's listed as day to day.
- [25:06]
David Holland
Yeah, it's not good. When you look at, when you look at first of all usf, if you're not paying attention, here's what I want you to realize. Alex Goelish is one of the best coaches in college football. Who's one of the hottest names who's going to get a big time job after this.
- [25:21]
Brent Rollins
This is a real good story about Bronx and his dad Ryan.
- [25:24]
David Holland
Real United Airlines customers. We were returning home and one of the flight attendants asked Bronx if he wanted to see the flight deck and meet Kath and Andrew.
- [25:32]
Commercial Announcer
I got to sit in the driver's seat.
- [25:34]
Brent Rollins
I grew up in an aviation family and seeing Bronx kind of reminded me.
- [25:38]
David Holland
Of myself when I was that age.
- [25:39]
Brent Rollins
That's Andrew, a real United pilot. These small interactions can shape a kid's future.
- [25:44]
Commercial Announcer
It felt like I was the captain.
- [25:46]
David Holland
Allowing my son to see the flight deck will stick with us forever.
- [25:49]
Brent Rollins
That's how good leads the way.
- [25:51]
Sponsor Voice
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- [26:11]
Commercial Announcer
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- [26:42]
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- [27:31]
David Holland
His quarterback, is an absolute freak show. And you saw it versus Florida. And you're going to see this guy at a very high level wherever he goes next. Because he will go somewhere next. Like I I. This guy is unbelievable. He's big, he's strong. Now, I don't know how many years of eligibility he has left.
- [27:48]
Brent Rollins
That was that. That was. I can't remember.
- [27:50]
David Holland
Well, look that up while I'm talking. But Byron Brown has three plus TD rushes in four in each of the last four games. Like each of the last four games. I mean he is, he's got the, he's got the throwing but he's got the running. He spreads it around. There's seven different players with 10 plus receptions. Like he's good man. And, and this offense is fast paced and it's, it's awesome and it's fun to watch. And if you don't listen to anything that I just said, what you need to pay attention to is Kaden Proctor for Alabama has been one of the more exciting guys. Well, so is Cole Skinner for USF. He has a rushing touchdown in his last two games. He's 6, 5 3, 25 Brent. Like it's awesome. I love that so much. Like find ways to give the big boys the fixed sixes are amazing. Like more thick sixes in our lives is good. Cole Skinner will get you another one. And USF is not just going to like beat Memphis. They're going to say hey North Texas was, was in contention for the group of five. They gone, we smashed them by 30. They're going to walk in and do the same exact thing to Memphis, apologize. Memphis. It's not going to go well. USF is going to make a statement and Byron Brown is an absolute baller.
- [29:04]
Brent Rollins
If the backup plays who's true freshman, I think I'm going to agree with you. I think if Lewis somehow plays and is able to do what he can do you at least get a punch for punch for a while. Kind of much like the North Texas game because Memphis can score it. But Lewis is not only the QB but he's the leader in rushing yards and attempts.
- [29:26]
David Holland
Yes.
- [29:26]
Brent Rollins
So he is the center of their.
- [29:28]
David Holland
Offense and even if he does go with with a back and like all the hits he's going to take and it's just. Yeah, it's just. It's not a, it's not a good rest. Last week they needed a kickoff, a 99 yard kickoff return to stay in the mix. Like they run the football really, really well. That all changed when A.J. hill came in and he tried to throw. He wasn't bad. He was 13 to 25. I think for like a buck 75 he was okay. But that offense. Yeah. Without Louis it's not boat racing. This is, this is going to be a lay him and laugh. I don't if it's. You said it's only four, four and a half. Four and a half. I don't say that very often. I'm pretty content saying lay him and laugh.
- [30:07]
Brent Rollins
Okay. All right. I went USF 38, assuming Lewis plays Memphis 31. But still, I think they.
- [30:13]
David Holland
That's way too. That's way too low for USF. They get in 45 plus.
- [30:18]
Brent Rollins
Okay. All right. Chips and dip. Not the marquee, but fired up to dig into it because we are always fired up to dig into Big 12 football. And we're going to look at three games in the Big 12 here. The first, which is the loan. Yeah, still loan. Undefeated Big 12 team.
- [30:34]
David Holland
Yep.
- [30:35]
Brent Rollins
BYU at Iowa State, where they are a last. I looked three and a half point underdog at Iowa State.
- [30:45]
David Holland
Well, they're not the only undefeated team in the Big 12 because UC is as well. UC and BYU in the Big 12. Only undefeated team behind them.
- [30:54]
Brent Rollins
Conference. BYU hasn't been lost at all.
- [30:57]
David Holland
We're talking about Big 12.
- [30:58]
Brent Rollins
Yeah.
- [30:59]
David Holland
In the Big 12. And then right behind him, you got Arizona State with one loss, Houston with one loss, and Texas Tech with one loss. So, like, it's kind of. It's kind of cool. Now, BYU and Cincy will play each other, obviously, you know, down the road, but this is. This is a big one, man. Like, this is a big game. You know, something's brewing. We're doing that. That's going to be released really soon. And we did. We're doing it on BYU and going and watching their offense, man, it was a treat. Like, it was a treat to watch. It's very fun. It's very new school mixed with old school. Like a quarterback obviously ran 47. Like, everything about it you like, it's just. It's just really cool. But Iowa State has never lost in this series. They're five. And. Oh, and BYU is one of six remaining teams, you know, in the country. So the list continues to dwindle. And this is one. When you're going to Iowa State, obviously, it can get another dwindling. Like. But. But Bear Bachmeyer, the run game versus Iowa State, which we saw Cincinnati, they're still running when they played him, remember, like, it was just ground and pound. Jumped out early. Bachmier and LJ Martin can do the same thing. Like, they are a great one, two punch. And the offense is perfectly suited for them to be able to score points, to be able to run the football. And then to me, it's on Rocco Beck. Like, Rocco Beck's been a good quarterback. For last year, he was really, really good. And then this season, to start the season, he's been really good. But since the start of the Season where they went five and oh, you know, two road game losses and it's not looked near as good. And they're another team too that's in that mix. Five, five of five games this season decided by eight points or less and they're three and two. But Beck's, you know, first two games, five touchdown passes, four in the last five games, like, and again he's thrown in, you know, the rushing, which he does a good job of. He's got like seven of them, I think on the season. So he's a good player. We're going to need to see Rocco Beck come back to being a really, really, really good player and a consistent player, not making mistakes. They're going to have to run the football. They're going to have to be, they're at home and they're favored. Brent. So there's a reason for that usually and that usually means, you know, we don't know something that they know. But I got, I'm going byu. I've doubted BYU enough. I owe you an apology. Like I'm going with byu. I just, I like what they're doing.
- [33:31]
Brent Rollins
I'll save a lot of the numbers and stuff for the, something's brewing so people can watch that video. But Iowa State losing out Colorado and then getting a bye week, that's the one thing that to me is an element of, okay, mid season bye week. BYU just played a very physical game against the rival.
- [33:52]
David Holland
That means a lot.
- [33:53]
Brent Rollins
Yes, I, I, everything, that, everything in me from a football perspective is picking byu. But I just, I, I've got, I wrote Iowa State 24, BYU 20. I don't, I have no other reason other than just wackiness of college football this year potentially even being some form of reasoning there. Iowa State is actually not, they got BYU and then they get Arizona State. So they're not technically out of that realm potentially in terms of the Big 12. But I think the bye week reset, figure out some of the things self evaluate, get right in a close game and the taking the veteran QB over the freshman qb and, and I could.
- [34:37]
David Holland
I could absolutely see that. Like, it's not like BYU is one.
- [34:41]
Brent Rollins
Of those very little confidence in the pick, that's for sure.
- [34:43]
David Holland
Yeah, but you also, you also don't feel like BYU is going to run away from anybody. I mean I, I, I have, I have no desire, I have no thought process that makes me think BYU can run the table and beat consistently beat good teams and be so explosive that they're just, that they're not that Team, like, you know, if you watch them and they get down, they're in trouble. Like, they're not a no huddle often. Now, they got down by two scores against Arizona and came back and it was fantastic. But like, it's not a fast pace. They can do a lot. They need to be in control of a game. They need to stay close. They can't get out of range where they have to start throwing the football. It won't go well for them. But.
- [35:22]
Brent Rollins
I got some numbers on that, too. That makes me agree with you there. That I'll save for. For. Something's brewing. All right, next one, Baylor, who's still scoring points, but just not getting many dubs at Cincinnati, where the Bearcats are a 4 1/2 point favorite.
- [35:40]
David Holland
Yeah, let me ask you a question. Who do you think leads the. The nation in passing and passing touchdowns?
- [35:46]
Brent Rollins
Oh, that would be Sawyer Robertson. That would be yardage at least. Like, he's, he's all kinds of yards, all kinds of points. Yeah, just. Just not many dubs.
- [35:54]
David Holland
Not many dubs. Obviously the defense started the season off atrocious. I mean, they were, they were really bad and they've kind of gotten healthier and gotten a little bit better. But when I, when I look at Sawyer Robinson and I look at this passing attack, like, I think that Cincinnati has a big problem. They have one big problem. And obviously Sawyer Robinson is the. Is. Is the biggest problem. But it's Michael Trigg at tight end. Like, Michael Trigg is the best tight end in the country. Like, he's. He's the best tight end in the country. Like, I, I feel very confident saying that. You don't hear that a lot of places because people aren't watching Baylor that much. That dude is a matchup nightmare. And I'm just going to say this about the way UC plays defense. It's really smart. It's really good because they know who they are, they know what they are. They're not going to give up the big play. Like, they're going to sit back in zones. They're going to make you go the length of the field when you don't have, you know, elite level talent. Especially throughout the beginning of season when they were placing so many guys in the back end. Like, that's what you should do. And so can Sawyer Robertson stay patient and not turn the football over? If he'll find Trig early, often and late and more late, like they've got a chance because of that heavy zone stuff. He can be a guy that takes advantage of it. But in the end, the other side of the coin for me is the most impressive thing I've seen. One of the most impressive things I saw this year was watching Cincinnati's offensive line versus Iowa State. Like I, I was blown away at the physicality and them getting on tracks.
- [37:33]
Brent Rollins
And wide tracks and then outside zone they run, dude, if not more. It's in, I think in the top like three in the power four or even in the FBS in terms of outside zone.
- [37:42]
David Holland
Yeah. And see, I didn't know that but like I'm absolutely with you on that. Like and then the problem with it is when you talk about like what makes it really, really hard is they do that outside zone and you got Walker, who's good, and you got Prior, who's good. Well, you also got Soursby, now who can pull it. And then they do a great job with the Reed game out wide and Sourcebee will take like three or four steps and again I'm nerding out and I apologize. But like they just do a really good job with their offense of putting you in big time conflict because if you've got a stretch on tracks to really get to that outside zone and then Sourcebee pulls it and goes the other direction, man, it's just hard. It's really hard on you. And he has been so efficient and so good. Like so good, man. Like they could have easily beaten Nebraska and think about the conversation we'd be having about uc. It'd be totally different. But I love uc. I love who they are. I love the way they run the football. I love the way their quarterbacks playing. I think because they're two dimensional unlike Baylor. I think they get the dove and I think it's 3731. They'll still give up some points. But it's at Nippert. Like my wife is a UC grad. We know Nippert, baby. That's where I did my rehab actually when I broke my neck as an NFL player. Like Nippers. Fantastic. And I think Baylor is going to find that out this week.
- [39:01]
Brent Rollins
They're excited for their squad, that's for sure. They know they got one. Then they got a QB Trig 25 targets in the last two games. I mean they thought to him often they didn't get as many receptions, but they've thrown it to him a lot. I got Cincy 38, Baylor 34, Walker, Prior, Sorsby. Their offense, they get it done, they score more. Baylor haven't given up less than 27 in a Power 4 game.
- [39:25]
David Holland
So I'm not.
- [39:26]
Brent Rollins
Since I'm not going to get 30s.
- [39:27]
David Holland
Is that good?
- [39:28]
Brent Rollins
That's not good. I mean, you got to score a lot. All right, last big 12 one. Which folks might be don't realize this Houston is six and one.
- [39:39]
David Holland
Houston, we have a problem.
- [39:41]
Brent Rollins
They're going to Arizona State, who is off a big emotional win that they put a lot into. Did they. I can't remember. Did they rush the field?
- [39:49]
David Holland
Yes, they did.
- [39:50]
Brent Rollins
Yeah, they did, right?
- [39:51]
David Holland
Never good with the field before.
- [39:53]
Brent Rollins
And then you got.
- [39:54]
David Holland
And then McGuire will probably be on podium Kings tomorrow for that because he made a comment about didn't they win the league last year and go to the playoff? And they're still rushing the field like it was kind of a backhanded, like, you know, slap a little bit. Okay. I told you lsu I thought could win the game. I didn't have the cojones to pick it. I'm in the same boat with Houston. I'm in the exact same boat because Arizona State is beat to crap. And it's their best players. It's their best fricking players like Prince, rushing the passer is their own. One of their best guys that can do it like he's banged up might not play in the game. Like they haven't been two dimensional.
- [40:34]
Brent Rollins
Yeah.
- [40:34]
David Holland
And I feel like that was a cramp because he came back in the game and you saw him finish and make a couple big plays. Not just the catch on third and goal, but also the fumble recovery, which was enormous. So I think he's okay. But, but I just, I worry about the big emotional win. I worry about all of the injuries. And then can they run the football, man? Like, I need to see Arizona State, you know, be more two dimensional because Sam Levitt was a pain in the ace last year because they could run the football, man, and they were physical. Then they could play action and then he could play make. Now last week, I get it. Like the perfect game plan for Texas, for, for Texas Tech last week was take advantage of their secondary, don't run it at their front seven. It's a waste. It's wasted place. I love the way they did it. It's like we talked about years ago with Clemson beating Alabama. Like death by a thousand cuts. Wear them out. Like that's, that's, that's how you have to do it. I think that was really, really smart. I don't think you'll do that with Houston. Houston is again, like when you talk about as good a coaching job in the country. This is probably. Sataki is probably going to be Big 12 coach of the year, but you're not going far from going to Houston to find the next one. And they play to their strengths of exactly who they are. Texas Tech is the only team that's beat them up. They've been in a bunch of games. They find ways to win. They run the rock. Their QB runs the rock. They're not trying to throw it that much. They can't protect their qb. Worth an absolute crap. Like, worth a crap. Every time I watch a Houston game, I'm like, my gosh, I feel bad for that dude. Like, I would not want to play quarterback on that roster. Like, it. It's a tough life. Like Connor Wigman, it's a hard.
- [42:20]
Brent Rollins
He probably likes the running part. He probably doesn't.
- [42:22]
David Holland
He loves to run it. And they're good at that. Like, they're really good at the running game and maybe that will keep them in it. But, dude, I got 23 to 20. And. And. And I want to say Houston, but at Texas, at Arizona State, to me is the difference being at home. But I think all the circumstances. This, this is. This is why you look at the whole big picture, man. Like, it's not just in a vacuum that Arizona State has Levitt and is more talented and should win the football game. All the injuries, the big emotions, all the stuff that goes into it, and now the matchup of, like, Levitt. You're going to have to be patient as a mug because Houston's just like Cincinnati defensively. Like, they're the same way. They're just going to drop back and be like, broski. Have it like seven yards.
- [43:11]
Brent Rollins
Take your.
- [43:12]
David Holland
It's not Sam Levitt's strength. Sam Levitt wants to make plays.
- [43:17]
Brent Rollins
And the Connor Wegman part that was interesting that you mentioned with him running the ball. He has 58 attempts this year.
- [43:25]
David Holland
A lot.
- [43:26]
Brent Rollins
He had 48 attempts in three years at a and M. Like, it's just amazing to see that a kid who he, you know, he made some plays and had some yardage as a runner at A M, but has completely become, you know, the massive piece of their running game at Houston. And so I, I agree. The. The closeness of the game. I wrote Arizona State 24, Houston 20. I think this is because of last week as much as anything. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting to hear Dillingham talk about, you know, I think what was he talking about? His physical practices. Like, we're never not going to be physical. Like, we were Last week because that brought out the best in our team. That was how we were last year. All that kind of stuff. Keep it up. Okay, fine. You know, we'll see him. Keep it up.
- [44:11]
David Holland
That's a great. That's a great call. I'm glad you said that because we'll have Dillingham in a couple of weeks. He's coming on the show. And then tomorrow we'll have Dusty Dvorak, who's a fantastic like. And again, a defensive guy. Perfect on C. Ball. Get ball. But again, hey, tip of the flipping cap to Willie Fritz. Like Willie Fritz. And the rebuild like Broski deserves so much freaking credit to have that roster and what he's doing and finding ways to win games like Willie Fritz. You're the man. Willie Fritz.
- [44:42]
Brent Rollins
When we previewed them in the preseason, we're like, we have no clue. Because their entire roster was new, the entirety of the roster almost. So tip of the melon cap. Don't forget that. You got to get the promo. Just since we Talked all Big 12 there. If they had if today, who's in the Big 12 championship game?
- [45:02]
David Holland
Oh, geez.
- [45:04]
Brent Rollins
Because just. Just if. If Houston somehow make. Gets this win their remaining schedule. Ucf, tcu, Baylor.
- [45:13]
David Holland
Yeah, that's right. They beat Colorado. They lost. They got beat the crap by Texas Tech. Yeah, that's. That's as good as a schedule as it gets. I.
- [45:23]
Brent Rollins
So.
- [45:24]
David Holland
But Arizona State's. Arizona State set up pretty good, too. And then the win over Texas and the win over Texas Tech I think is really, really good. Obviously for. I'll go. I'll go byu. No, I'll go Scentsy. I'll go Cincy and Arizona State.
- [45:42]
Brent Rollins
Yeah, Cincinnati gets them at home. They got to go to Utah. They got to go to tcu. But they get Arizona and BYU at home. Cincinnati does after Baylor this week. That there's still so much that can happen in the Big 12. That's why it's the best league.
- [45:56]
David Holland
It's the best league every year to watch. Like the SEC this year has gotten better now because there's so much depth. But like the Big 12, every game is awesome. Like, you can pick so many. Like the Houston, Arizona State. Like, there's just so many games every week that are so good. Good to pick that if you want to win money, if that's your thing. It's not ours here at CBall. Get ball. Don't bet on the Big 12 because I don't think you're going to win.
- [46:18]
Brent Rollins
Much money unless you're betting against the team and the over behind my head. Yeah, I think that's, that's a pretty good bet right now. Unfortunately the Mountaineers are struggle bus. Yeah, we'll wait for year two Rich Rod Year two veggie tray game might skip it but it's actually going to be really good and it's actually very important. Illinois at Washington. This is to me a playoff elimination game.
- [46:42]
David Holland
Yeah.
- [46:43]
Brent Rollins
Washington is a four and a half point favorite. I think if, I actually think if either of these teams and Beela was actually. I heard him talking about it today.
- [46:50]
David Holland
Oh yeah.
- [46:51]
Brent Rollins
Where he's like hey, if our younger two and our only losses are the number one and number two, he's already doing the lobbying. But I do think that if one of these teams finishes 10 and 2, I think they're in the playoff.
- [47:04]
David Holland
Well, hold on. There's. There's a different conversation to be had. Washington, yes. Illinois no. Washington beats Oregon at late in the season and they're 10 to 2. They're in the playoff. Like I can get down with that because it'd be a decent loss to Michigan, a decent loss to Ohio State. Illinois has a lot to overcome. Man. You don't lose by 53 and lose in another game by. You scored late but 18. It wasn't competitive. The game was over. Like I've seen you against two playoffs. Now listen, that's the number one and number two team in the country that like yes, that's fine. But, but, but I think you've got to compete at a higher level. But Washington, this is a big opportunity and Washington at home, you know demond Williams. When you watch him play, he's got so much special to him. He really does. And then he has some head scratching moments last week against Michigan. But, but I think because Michigan is, is good enough defensively to pressure and to get you to the ground. Now Illinois is going to have to get you to the ground and tackling that kid. You better have some athletes that can do it. And he's, he and Jed Fish are just, they're really good. Like okay, here's what I would do if I'm Illinois and I want to win this football game. Number one, number two, number three focus is Damon Williams. It's his running ability because it's it the running ability that he does. Coleman is a beast. He's an animal. He's going to break tackles. He's not going 60. He's not going to chew up the chunks that sucker like, like Williams, that sucker can roll like he can pick up, pick him up and put him down quick. How about this? Five games that they've won eight yards of carry, two games that they've lost two yards of carry like that, that is priority one, two and three. And can Illinois bottle him up with that? They'll play the five down front. They'll, they'll play more aggressive. They'll play more man. Now nobody's looking at Williams and you got to tackle him and you got to get him on the ground. And to me that is, like I said, Key 1, 2 and 3 for Illinois this week.
- [49:16]
Brent Rollins
And I think Washington just had their one stinker and I think they bounced back in a big way. I got Washington 31, Illinois 27, moving along to a potential big matchup with Oregon.
- [49:29]
David Holland
You got them all close.
- [49:30]
Brent Rollins
I don't, I think they're all going to be close.
- [49:33]
David Holland
I don't have, I got, I got several 10 point wins this week, which is, which is crazy. But this is one of them too. Actually it's not 10, I don't think because I can't do math. It's 8, 35, 27. I think it's. Here's what I, I struggle because I've seen Illinois. Now I love Altmeyer. I think Almer is a stud. Like I think he's a bad mother. Shut your mouth. And he's good enough to play at a, any anywhere he wants in the country almost and be very successful and good. Now the problem is around him, they don't protect him, they don't run the football and they don't keep him upright. Like I just now. And I don't think Washington's elite, you know, in the front or in the back, like where they're going to stop him the whole game. But I think they do have a chance to make it harder on you and because they don't get separation out well. But Altmeyer, man, like that dude's a baller. Like he's just, he's played so good and then when you get in the red zone, he becomes such a big deal with his legs. Like he's freaking good, man. Like he's so good. He's not going to be the reason they lose. That's not why I think Illinois is going to lose.
- [50:37]
Brent Rollins
And it's one of those things where a lot of these teams this year, you've seen where they've spent and a lot of it, maybe that's the resources they had. But you had the returning quarterback a la Taylor Green at Arkansas, a la Lenore Sellers at South Carolina. But what's A and Altmeyer at Illinois. But what's around, like, these guys still need playmakers. You can't ask them to carry that load week in and week out. So speaking of that, which is the most likely upset? I got four other games, one I threw in here, just because the spread is not as large as I thought it would be. I think it was. Let's see, where is it? It was only ten and a half. Virginia at North Carolina is one. Ucla.
- [51:21]
David Holland
Absolutely not.
- [51:23]
Brent Rollins
Okay, I didn't think so.
- [51:25]
David Holland
Out. Out on that.
- [51:26]
Brent Rollins
Ucla, Indiana. Hey, Sig said it. They're facing an undefeated team. Yeah, he's playing the psychological warfare.
- [51:36]
David Holland
I'm not listening to that crap.
- [51:37]
Sponsor Voice
Yeah.
- [51:38]
Brent Rollins
Alabama at South Carolina, Texas at Mississippi State. Which of these would be the most likely upset if you had to pick one?
- [51:46]
David Holland
Texas at Mississippi State. Like, what. What have you seen from Texas? Offensively, like, Oklahoma was solid. That was a solid performance. But you scored on special teams. Your defense played lights out, forcing turnovers. Like, and then Kentucky last week, they very easily could have lost. Now you go to more cowbell, like, it's going to be absolutely nuts. It'll be hard, it'll be difficult. Like, if you watch the broadcast, you're gonna be like, what the freak, man? What is that annoying noise? It's the cowbells, right? Like, it's gonna be. It's gonna. It's gonna be there. And then obviously Texas has got some games coming up where they're probably a little bit more focused on than they are Mississippi State. But Mississippi State can throw the football, can make some plays. You know, I think Hale State has been one of the most improved teams in the country, man. Like, they've completely turned around. They were a doormat a year ago and they are now doing a great job of competing in every single game they're in. Every game they're in, they're competitive and.
- [52:45]
Brent Rollins
They'Re going to get one.
- [52:47]
David Holland
I already got Arizona State.
- [52:49]
Brent Rollins
Well, I'm talking about in the sec. I think they're going to get one of those SEC games. They got Texas. Arkansas was the more likely one, but Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss left. I think they get one of those ranked teams. And if. If there is one, it's this week, it's Texas. I think that's very much upset alert type game of the week. That's all we got.
- [53:09]
David Holland
That's all we got.
- [53:10]
Brent Rollins
It's a lot. That's a lot of fun football to watch this weekend.
- [53:12]
David Holland
It is a lot. That 2:30 window or that 3:30 window is the one too where there's like four that you're really going to want to want to pay attention to. But man, it's, we appreciate you guys joining us like always. There's the picks and I think it's been, it's been a fun season so far. We're, we're still getting down the road but thank y' all for all the growth, man. We, we have grown week after week, month after month. So appreciate y' all liking subscribing, doing all rating all that stuff even if you think we're a humpy and Brent's head shiny like we appreciate.
- [53:44]
Brent Rollins
Make fun of it all day every.
- [53:45]
David Holland
Day, whatever it takes. But we'll be back again. We'll make sure we get some, some recaps and obviously those are the picks that we feel like is going to happen. So you can go against as many as you feel free to do. But we appreciate you guys.
- [54:01]
Sponsor Voice
Yep.
- [54:01]
David Holland
Thank you.