See Ball Get Ball with David Pollack

Episode: Miami-Indiana CFP National Championship: GAMEDAY PREDICTIONS
Date: January 19, 2026
Host: David Pollack
Guest Analyst: Brent Rollins (On3, PFF)

Episode Overview

David Pollack hosts a special national championship edition focused on the College Football Playoff title matchup between Miami and Indiana. With fellow analyst Brent Rollins, he delivers an in-depth breakdown of team strengths, key statistical indicators, matchups to watch, and bold predictions for the game. The conversation centers on how each team can play to its identity, dominant defenses, mistake-free football, and the players who could determine the outcome.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Home-Field Advantage & Crowd Dynamics

• Will Miami Have a Home-Field Edge?
  • Tickets are "absolutely outrageous" with Indiana fans snapping them up, making the game's atmosphere a major unknown.
  • David says: "This is a magic carpet ride of a lifetime [for Indiana] and it feels like they've been buying up tickets." [03:17]

Handling the Big Moment

• Which Team Handles the Pressure?
  • Indiana has surged through the postseason and overcome early jitters, indicating a team peaking at the right time.
  • Miami has also started strong in big games, but the question remains whether either team can sustain or reverse that early momentum under championship pressure.

Mistake-Free Football: Indiana's Edge

• Turnovers and Penalties
  • David highlights Indiana's discipline:
    • "Indiana is one of the best teams we've ever seen at not making mistakes. Like all year long. They haven't lost a fumble the whole season. Not one." [05:16]
    • Indiana: 55 total penalties in 15 games (~3.6/game)
    • Miami: 105 total penalties (~7/game)
  • Indiana’s clean play and lack of self-inflicted mistakes have been indispensable to their run.

Physicality in the Trenches

• Can Miami Run on Indiana?
  • Indiana is averaging just 55 rushing yards allowed per game this postseason, stymieing Oregon and Alabama.
  • Miami needs to "pound this front seven," as success on the ground is their identity.
  • David emphasizes: "If Miami can't pound this front like they're done. They're not going to drop back and throw the football." [06:59-07:08]
  • Miami running back Fletcher must have a "huge part in this football game."

The Mendoza Factor

• Is Indiana QB Mendoza Human?
  • Mendoza's playoff résumé is almost flawless:
    • 41 TD, 6 INT, best completion percentage, zero INTs in the playoffs.
    • "He's sixth on Indiana's career passing list... He's played one year." [07:55]
    • "Is Mendoza human? Is he going to blink at all?"
  • Miami's elite pass rush (Bane, Mesidor) is one of the rare threats that could test Mendoza's poise.

Statistical Matchup Predictions

• Key Stat-Based Predictions
  • Mendoza vs. Miami QB Carson Beck:
    • David says he's "100% confident" Mendoza will pass for more yards and have less turnovers than Beck. [09:27]
  • Rushing Yards:
    • David predicts Miami will rush for more yards tonight than Alabama and Oregon combined managed versus Indiana in the CFP ("over 110 yards"). [14:18]
    • Brent wonders if Miami could hit that mark by halftime: "If they do, this game is exactly where they want it to be." [15:08]
  • Turnover Battle:
    • Both agree, based on season history, that Miami will likely turn the ball over more and Indiana will win this aspect again. [16:36]

Explosive Playmakers: Tony vs. Cooper

• Malachi Tony vs. Omar Cooper (WRs)
  • David gives the edge to Malachi Tony (Miami), calling him "the most complete wide receiver in all of college football, like as a freshman" and a "Swiss army knife." [18:19-20:03]
  • Expect creative play-calling: "He 100% has a throw [tonight]... I think they’d be stupid not to." [20:03]

Officiating and Defensive Depth

• Role of Referees and Suspensions
  • Big 12 officiating crew may impact early flow, especially with Miami corner Xavier Lucas suspended for the first half due to a targeting call.
  • Surratt (Indiana WR) could benefit from facing Miami's less physical DBs early.

QB Scramble Factor

• Can Carson Beck's Mobility Make a Difference?
  • David notes Beck won’t try to do too much, but takes off to avoid sacks and keep Miami ahead of schedule:
    • "Pump, pump, I'm look like he is looking, and he's trying to go through his Progression." [20:54-21:14]

Overarching Theme: Don't Lose The Game

• Championships Are Often Lost, Not Won
  • Brent quotes Chris Collinsworth: "In these bigger games, the game is often lost," suggesting the team that avoids that one costly mistake may prevail. [24:17]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Indiana’s Discipline:

  • "They haven't lost a fumble the whole season. Not one... They have 55 total penalties. Miami has 105." — David Pollack [05:16]

• On Mendoza:

  • "Is Mendoza human? ... He's played one year... No INTs in the playoff, perfect in the red, elite on third downs. He's 31 of 36 in the playoff against Oregon and Alabama, five incompletions. He's got eight touchdowns." — David Pollack [07:44-08:09]

• On Physicality:

  • "If Miami can't pound this front like they're done. They're not going to drop back and throw the football." — David Pollack [07:08]

• On Malachi Tony’s Versatility:

  • "He is literally a Swiss army knife that can do a little bit of everything. And he's Miami's best offensive player, so he needs to touch the rock." — David Pollack [20:03]

• On Game Outcome Philosophy:

  • "The game is often lost. And then the pick, the bad play in OT ... that's what this game, I'm looking to see if there's a point in this game where somebody makes a play that more so is you lose the game because of that play than going and winning it." — Brent Rollins [24:17]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:44-02:30 — Episode intro, playoff setup, show preview
• 03:15-04:30 — Ticket market, Miami crowd advantage discussion
• 05:10-06:10 — Indiana’s historical discipline; penalties/fumbles
• 06:15-07:12 — Miami’s identity and need to run; Indiana’s elite run defense
• 07:32-08:09 — Breaking down Mendoza’s flawless season
• 08:14-12:10 — Brent Rollins joins; discussion of prediction confidence, referee impacts, and Miami’s defensive suspensions
• 14:18-16:25 — Will Miami exceed Oregon and Bama’s combined rushing output?
• 16:25-18:01 — Turnover battle, Indiana’s plodding but efficient run game
• 18:03-20:39 — Malachi Tony vs. Omar Cooper; Tony’s usage, trick-play potential
• 20:39-22:03 — Carson Beck’s scramble ability and big-play mindset
• 22:03-24:17 — Predictions, mindsets, “games often lost” theme
• 24:44-25:49 — Final remarks, what to watch for, next episode tease

Summary of Predictions

• Pollack and Rollins both lean toward Indiana to win, citing their mistake-free style and physicality.
• Miami’s best chance is to dominate with their run game and force Indiana into uncharacteristic errors.
• Players to watch: Indiana’s Mendoza (QB), Miami’s Malachi Tony (WR, trick plays possible), defensive standouts on both sides (Bane, Mesidor for Miami).

Recap Value

This episode offers a passionate, detailed, and statistic-rich preview of the CFP National Championship, providing fans with everything needed to understand the stakes, key matchups, and storylines going into Miami-Indiana. Pollack’s direct, conversational tone, combined with Rollins’ analytical focus, ensures listeners get the “why” behind every prediction—making this essential listening (or reading) for college football enthusiasts before the big game.