2025 US OPEN RE-DRAW SPECIAL | Andy Roddick & Jon Wertheim Re-Pick the Winners!

Summary

Podcast Summary: Served with Andy Roddick

Episode: 2025 US OPEN RE-DRAW SPECIAL | Andy Roddick & Jon Wertheim Re-Pick the Winners!
Date: September 2, 2025
Guests: Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Producer Mike, Techie Sean

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Episode Overview

In this special "Redraw" episode, Andy Roddick and Jon Wertheim revisit their picks for the 2025 US Open after the first week of play brought unexpected results, upsets, and new narratives. Broadcasting candidly from a hotel room, the hosts poke fun at their own prediction missteps, weigh in on tennis trends, and re-pick their projected winners for both the men’s and women’s draws. The podcast remains lively, self-deprecating, and insightful, giving tennis fans an expert-level yet accessible re-examination of the year’s final Grand Slam.

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Setting the Scene & Approach (00:01–02:48)

• The “Redraw Show” is a tradition where Andy, Jon, and crew publicly admit to getting their initial picks wrong and get a "second serve" at forecasting the US Open outcome.
• Light ribbing among the hosts sets a relaxed, bantery tone.
  • Quote – Andy: "This is the one where you can say you suck at your job. This is the Redraw show." (01:07)
• Vibes: Live, informal (“we’re in a random hotel room”), with everyone (including producer Mike and Techie Sean) joining in.

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Women's Draw Breakdown & New Picks (02:48–11:41)

Early Bracket Self-Evaluation

• Jon fared better in women’s predictions; Andy had some close calls but suffered bracket "heartbreak."
• Both hosts acknowledge how unpredictable the women’s field has become, with upsets and last-minute surges.
  • Quote – Andy: "I chose Rybakina to the final. Vondrousova had other thoughts on how that was going to go." (04:51)

Key Remaining Contenders

• Discussion centers on elite quarterfinalists: Sabalenka, Swiatek, Osaka, Krejcikova, Pegula, and the standout performance of Anisimova.
• Recognition of Czech women’s tennis strength: three out of eight quarterfinalists.
  • Quote – Jon: "Can we just pause and applaud Czech women, three of the eight from a country of that size? That's pretty impressive." (11:06)

Strategic Re-Picking

• Sabalenka vs. Vondrousova: Jon sticks with Sabalenka; Andy does too, citing form and “cowardly to change the pick if your favorite is still alive.”
  • Quote – Andy: "If your favorite is still in the draw, it's cowardly… you can do it, but…" (05:56)
• Pegula vs. Krejcikova: Jon pivots to Krejcikova, highlighting her clutch play and recent comeback win over Taylor Townsend.
  • Quote – Jon: "Krejcikova is so clutch. Once she sort of gets her teeth into a tournament, I think I need to go Krejcikova over Pegula." (07:13)
• Muchova vs. Osaka: Both hosts land on Naomi Osaka, emphasizing her dominating performance, especially over Coco Gauff.
  • Stat – Andy: "Osaka won 94% of first serve points and served 70-something percent." (08:42)
  • Quote – Andy: "I'm not going to choose against Naomi because she is so locked in." (09:19)
• Finals Forecast: Andy predicts a rematch of last year’s final: Swiatek vs. Sabalenka, again picking Swiatek. Jon stays loyal to his pre-tournament choice, also signaling confidence in the defending champion.

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Discussion: Czech Women’s Tennis & National Trends (11:06–11:49)

• Both hosts praise the depth and consistency of Czech women’s tennis and briefly mention Italian and American tennis as well.

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Men's Draw Reassessment & Analysis (13:37–24:48)

Bracket Post-Mortem

• Several picks fell victim to injury withdrawals (Draper, Zverev issues).
• Sinner vs. Musetti: Universally, both see Sinner as the heavy favorite due to his level and recent straight-sets dominance.

FAA & De Minaur

• FAA (Felix Auger-Aliassime) earns praise for a resurgence at just age 25, after knocking off Zverev and Rublev.
  • Quote – Jon: "For him to come back with very little momentum, beat Zverev... and then back that up by beating Rublev. What a nice tournament for Felix." (16:10)
• De Minaur is finally getting respect for his all-court aggression and not just labeled a “counter-puncher.”
  • Quote – Andy: "Anyone who says that Demon is just fast and he's a counterpuncher hasn’t watched him play. The guy is all over the net... great volleys." (16:33)
• Both lean toward De Minaur advancing, with respect for FAA’s firepower.

Djokovic vs. Fritz

• The only major flip: Andy switches from Fritz to Djokovic, citing their 0-10 head-to-head and Novak’s improving form.
  • Quote – Andy: "Novak is 10 and 0 against Taylor Fritz. Novak has found himself the last two. I'm, I have Novak, I'm flipping." (17:59)
  • Conversely, Jon sees it as Fritz’s time to finally get Djokovic.
  • Quote – Jon: "I think this is the match he gets him. First time on Ash for Taylor." (18:33)

Alcaraz vs. Sinner Finals Trajectory

• Both hosts have Sinner and Alcaraz reaching the final, with each leaning toward Sinner as champion.

Meta Bracket Banter

• Meta discussion about strategic picking and what previous picks mean for the inter-host rivalry.
  • Quote – Andy: "Does that mean that I win? If we have the same and I'm ahead now?" (20:22)
  • Jon jokes: "Did I just back myself into a corner? So he wins." (20:36)

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Tournament Tech Quirk: "Let" Rule Dispute (21:00–24:02)

• Notable detail: There is no let-detection device on the net this year due to a technology dispute; chair umpires judge lets by ear, like the old days.

  • Quote – Jon: "There's nothing on the net to decide if it's a let or not... chair umpire is making these calls. This is like 1978." (21:13)
  • Discussion on whether tennis should do away with the service let entirely, as already seen in college/juniors.

• Andy’s Rant: Strong opinion that players should not be allowed to catch their toss and restart the serve:

  • Quote – Andy: "You should not be able to catch a toss ever. You should have to hit it or it’s a fault. The toss is a skill. Like, it's an actual trainable skill." (23:06)

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Quick Odds Breakdown: FanDuel Live Odds (24:06–30:07)

Women’s Favorites

• Jessica Pegula: Realistic path depends on serve consistency.
  • Quote – Andy: "If her first serve percentage is up around 60%, she has a good shot in any match." (24:48)
• Naomi Osaka: Her winning record every time she goes deep in Slams is highlighted, with the sense her resurgence is both stats and eye-test based.
  • Quote – Andy: "Every time [Osaka] makes the quarters, she's won the tournament. She has four Grand Slam wins and this is her fifth quarterfinal." (25:54)

Men’s Field

• Sinner and Alcaraz are consensus favorites; FAA and De Minaur both long shots, but FAA has the “weapons” edge.
• Discussion on how difficult it is to win three matches in a row vs. Novak, Alcaraz, and Sinner.
  • Quote – Andy: "What are the odds that Fritz beats Novak, Alcaraz, and Sinner on the trot within five days, best of five?" (28:27)
• Alcaraz seen as slightly better current form than Sinner, but both are “playing well,” and matchups matter more than the “eyeball test.”

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Memorable & Fun Moments

• Frequent, friendly roasting between Andy and Jon about their picks.
• High spirits in reflecting on pundit errors: “Where are we? Just be yourself. We just shorted Nvidia. We just picked the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl.”
• The conversational, off-script hotel vibe; producer Mike and Techie Sean occasionally joining the banter.
• Andy’s final flourish on annoyances: catching tosses, serve clocks, and tennis traditions.

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Key Timestamps

• Main Redraw Concept & Vibe: 01:00–02:48
• Women’s Draw Evaluation: 02:48–11:41
• Czech Tennis & National Trends: 11:06–11:49
• Men’s Draw Re-Pick: 13:37–24:48
• Let Technology/Rule Detour: 21:00–24:02
• Live Odds & Betting Insight: 24:06–30:07

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Signature Quotes

• Andy Roddick: "You should not be able to catch a toss ever. The toss is a skill. Like, it's an actual trainable skill." (23:06)
• Jon Wertheim: "Krejcikova is so clutch. Once she sort of gets her teeth into a tournament, I think I need to go Krejcikova over Pegula." (07:13)
• On Osaka: "Every time she’s made the quarters, she’s won the tournament... when she goes deep in tournaments she becomes dangerous." (25:54)
• On De Minaur: "Anyone who says that Demon is just fast and he's a counterpuncher hasn't watched him play... great volleys." (16:33)

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Wrap-Up

• The episode ends with tongue-in-cheek confusion over the show’s name (“Reserved” “Quick Serve”), jokes about their temporary recording setup, and an informal, humorous sign-off.

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For Listeners

This episode is essential for anyone following the US Open, offering sharp analysis, real-time bracket updates, and plenty of entertaining tennis banter. Andy and Jon balance expertise with accessible humor, making sense of a wild Slam and why tennis predictions are always a moving target.

Transcript

[A]

Support comes from ServiceNow. AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built on. With ServiceNow AI platform, your AI data and workflows all work together, connecting every corner of your business. To see how you can put AI to work for people, visit servicenow.com AI agents support for served comes from FanDuel. Will this be the year an American man breaks through? Could a teenage sensation shock the world? Or will a champion defend their crown? The U.S. open has given us all of that and more. If you think you know what's coming next, FanDuel is where you make your call. New customers get $300 in bonus bets with any $5 bet. Visit FanDuel.com to download America's number one sportsbook and bet on one of the biggest events in tennis. Hey, everyone. Welcome to Served. I'm Andy. JW is here. Producer Mike is over there. Techie Sean is over there. And I feel like this is producer Mike's favorite show.

[B]

Why?

[A]

This is the one where you can say you suck at your job. This is the Redraw show. So for those of you who don't know, we do a live draw show. I've never seen the job before. I can't give the same excuse to my partner's in crime over here. But we just make a bunch of picks in, like, a frenzied way. We end up messing it up pretty badly. And then we need some grace. So we have a Redraw show where we try again.

[C]

Second serve.

[B]

Is that what we're calling it, Grace?

[A]

I mean, I think.

[B]

I think it's a redo.

[A]

Did you.

[C]

Second serve.

[A]

Now can we acknowledge that we're just.

[B]

In a random hotel room?

[C]

I was going to say, do we want to hear. Let's set the scene.

[B]

Live shows. We're here to do more U.S. open work.

[A]

I mean, this is the first time I've ever felt like a real journalist because I'm actually holding a microphone. Yeah, no, you do.

[C]

There we go.

[B]

I'm actually pissed off I didn't get you, like, a small Bob Barker microphone.

[A]

That would have been sweet. Sweet. I would have bought a suit. I would have bought a new. I would have bought a new suit. All right, so this is the Redraw Show. So we basically tell you who we had, why we stink, and who we think is going to win from here on out, right? And you're. I know, Mike. I already know your whole shtick and you suck and the whole thing. But. But, like, did you fill a bracket out?

[B]

Oh, no, no, no, no.

[A]

No. Did you fill a bracket out?

[C]

I filled out halfway, and then I. I gave up.

[A]

So that's a no. Just so we're clear, like, you're. Why?

[B]

I don't know what I'm talking about.

[A]

Did you jump over that river? No, I jumped over. I. I jumped over half of it. Oh, so you're wet. Okay. Yeah.

[B]

He's talking to Sean right now as. No mic by choice.

[A]

Yeah. That's great. It's my favorite person to talk to is someone who can't talk back. All right, so are we going men's or women's first?

[B]

I mean, looking at John's bracket, we should probably go women's.

[A]

Oh, oh, wait.

[C]

Get us up to speed.

[A]

How?

[C]

Be brutal. We've just gotten done.

[A]

Just be yourself.

[C]

We just shorted Nvidia. We just picked the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl. Where. Where are we?

[B]

I mean, we do have to say Anna Samova is still playing right now.

[A]

She's up a lot.

[B]

She's up a lot.

[A]

6 032, I think rushing right now. Yeah.

[B]

But while we're doing this, I mean, John is definitely fared better in the women's bracket than the men's than Andy.

[A]

Oh, in real time or just in real time?

[B]

In real time.

[A]

In real time.

[B]

Yeah. So. So round of 16, he had Sabalenka moving on to face Rabakina. He had.

[A]

So in the quarters, he had Sabalenka, Rabakina.

[B]

He. He has the chance. He has the finals. Still alive. That's it.

[C]

This guy doesn't.

[A]

We're. We're fine here. And he also does the. He. He still does the thing where it's like one point per matchup. No. Weighted for finals winners. Like, it's just.

[B]

It's next year. Next year.

[A]

Sorry. I'll put in a petition with served media to see if we can get an adjustment on their brackets. All right, so John had Sabine Robak. He chose Sabalinka. I know. I chose Rabakina because that one hurt. Did he have Pagula or Andrea? For sure. He had Andre.

[B]

He did not.

[A]

He didn't have either.

[B]

No.

[C]

Tell me what I had.

[B]

He had in Boko over Andrevo.

[C]

Fortune favors the brave.

[B]

He actually didn't. He didn't even have Pula into the round of 16, so.

[A]

You wish.

[C]

Yeah, we.

[A]

Sam son of a. Stremska.

[C]

I had Sam son of a.

[B]

Hits. He had Sam son of a. Face into the semis.

[A]

I do remember that.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

He had Maddo Keys. What?

[B]

Into Face. IGA into the sim.

[C]

And I'm beating you.

[A]

Wait, that's impossible. Wait, I did two. Oh, well, he's saying that. He's saying you beating me because you have both finalists still alive.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So basically, if wins this thing for me, it's a wrap. It's a wrap for this guy. And if Sabalenka wins, then it's a wrap for that guy. Yes, it's pretty much the way it is. Okay, I had Sabalinka, Rabakina. I had Rabbakina to the final. Von Droseva had other thoughts on how that was going to go. I had Pegula and Mira, so that was okay. Ish had faith in Pegula.

[B]

You did really good in the round of 16. You really need IGA to win this thing.

[A]

Yeah, that's right. But I mean, listen, if you need someone to win a tennis tournament, IGA's about as good of a bet as anyone. All right, so we both had Coco or you had keys over Coco. That is irrelevant now. So basically it comes down to with our brackets. So from here on out. Let's go. So we're going to make our new pick Sabalenka Von Drozova. Jw, are you sticking with Sabalena to win the tournament?

[B]

All right, I'm going to do this real time.

[C]

Just shortcut this and say, yeah, isn't it. Do we have. We need a ruling on this. Cowardly to change your pick if both players are still alive, if your favorite.

[A]

Is still in the draw, it's cowardly and it's. You can do it.

[C]

It's acceptable. I think I did it, actually. I think, I think I had sitter to beat Carlos in Paris and was feeling pretty good for two sets. And then, then I got burned on that. No, I'm sticking with Sa.

[A]

I think you've done it a lot. I don't think I've ever done it.

[C]

So let's, you know, you gotta dance with Huangya. Sticking with my pick.

[A]

Sabalenka, Pula, Kova. Kova is like, she just knows, like, she gets to a quarters of a major and it's kind of like I, I made the comparison and I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this. I made the comparison in the quick serves, and when JW and I do quick serves, it's like we don't actually communicate for. We're just switching off quick serves. It's kind of like the Walrinka thing where you know what his upside is. Right. If he's in the quarters, you're going this guy can actually beat anyone. Like he can actually knock someone out. And I think that about Krishikova. Pula tells the story about how it was Wednesday before the tournament started and she walked off in practice because she was playing so badly. And she's been on the court for like five hours through four rounds. So with that backstory, do you like Pegula or Krijikova?

[C]

I gotta think. And Krijikova, which she did. I mean, I feel like people saw the headline, oh, Taylor Townsend eight match points. What she did on those match points, I mean, if you go back, Taylor played. Exactly. That's the point.

[A]

Exactly.

[C]

I just. Krajikova is so clutch. And once she sort of gets her teeth into a tournament, I think I need to go Krajikova over Pula. I don't think Krajikova is winning this tournament. It would not surprise me if she did. That's how good she's gotten in a hurry.

[A]

I know she, she, I mean, she's like a microwave, right? She'll go from no wins to like, this is boiling hot. Like it's, it's, it's absurd. Okay, so you have Sabalenka, Krichikova and then on the Muhava. Osaka.

[C]

Osaka, man. I, that's. Mujava's been to the semis two years in a row. This would be our third straight semi here. I, I think, I think Osaka is really locked in. What you think? What do you think?

[A]

I think you haven't made your pick is what I think. And then also. All right, so we have Osaka. And I also think, I love the. I think Osaka has been borderline the best player in the tournament so far. You could make that case like pretty easily. Like you can make cocoa three and two. And by the way, in the Coco soccer match, I know a lot of the talk has been about Coco, serve, Coco, serve. Fine. She didn't lose this match because of her serve. Just, just so we're clear, like it's. People are going to say she was serving struggles and that's going to be the narrative. Osaka, anytime the rally started and she was in the middle of the court, beat her forehand to forehand, beat her back into back, and the patterns were there. And then she was the first to actually get on the front foot, dominated that match. And it wasn't about Coco.

[C]

Look at Osaka serve.

[A]

By the way, Osaka won 94% of first serve points and served 70 something percent. Like it was pretty good, 77% or second serve. But also she found, she found like she found the leak, right? It was. It was Coco's forehand return was. Wasn't there today. I would have liked to see her shift. And this is not what this show's about. I would have liked to seen her switch return positions a little bit. You have to get. When someone is that locked in and can strike the ball like no Miosaka, you have to get it out of their zone. Right? I would have liked to seen Coco go Rafa and go 20ft back, find all the height in the world, and then worry about the next ball when you get to the next ball. But like her going toe to toe cross court forehands with Naomi. I didn't. I didn't think that was it, but.

[B]

All right, so there's like.

[A]

Was unbelievable. But I has the type of game that bothers Naomi. She can serve in volley, she can hit chip, she can hit drop shots. Naomi, if she hits two balls from the front foot, you're. You're. You're cooked like you're smoked. Especially the way she's playing. I'm not going to choose against Naomi because she is so locked in. I'm going to choose Osaka. But it is deeper than that. Much of a has the type of game that can bother variety that can bother Naomi. I'm going to go. I'm going Sabalenka Pula in a rematch. So we're going to see a rematch of last year's final. And I am going Naomi Wiatek. I'm going Swiatek Sabalenka. And I'm sticking with my pick with over Sabalenka because I need it to happen.

[C]

Do you see any scenario in which case. Let me. Let me see your. Where's your draw here? Is there any scenario in which case we get a rematch of the Wimbledon final and the player that lost love and love exacts revenge.

[A]

Anisimova, as we're shooting this is currently up 6, 042 against Haddad. Maya. We're doing this so that we can edit this and put this out so when you wake up and have your coffee, you can listen to our bullshit tomorrow morning. Yeah, There's a world night session. Anisimova looks really good like that. O and O was. Was a. It's. It's an outlier, right? There will be some scar tissue. I wouldn't choose it straight up, but I don't think we go into that saying there's no chance because of. Of that match. But I'm. I'm. I'm switching Rabakin is gone. I'm going chalk on Sabalenka to the finals now and then I'm gonna break John's heart. When ego wins. Oh, that's where we're at.

[C]

Can we just pause and applaud Czech women, three of the eight from. From a country of that size. That's pretty impressive. I'm sticking with my pick. I think we get a defending champion. Defending the Czech.

[A]

Czech tennis is so good for a country that's not huge.

[C]

It doesn't have always right.

[A]

Has like, has the legends, has history, has consistency. I mean, Lehecka would like a word as well. He's still in the quarterfinals. Like, Sean was all over me today. He's like, we need to shout out Chucky. Like we do Italian tennis.

[C]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

And I was like, you are. You're right, techie. Sean, you're not just a pretty face. All right.

[D]

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[A]

Support for syrup comes from fanduel. The US Open is here. The excitement is building and the pressure is on. The best players in the world will be going head to head in a test of skill, endurance and willpower. Being there is a feeling that's honestly hard to describe. Even if you can't be in Queens for the matches, you can get in on the thrills with FanDuel. FanDuel lets you bet on all the matches from the first serve to the final point. Any moment can flip the story and you can ride it with FanDuel. Plus, FanDuel lets you bet on same game parlays in all the matches, which means you can bet on things like total aces in a match set winners plus new customers get $300 in bonus bets with any $5 bet. What are you waiting for? Visit FanDuel.com to download America's number one sportsbook and bet on one of the biggest events in tennis. Okay, let's go to the men. I had Sinner Draper. So I'm going to say of the men's. I'm looking at it in my mistakes. Two of them had to pull out because of injury.

[C]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

Right. I had center Draper.

[C]

Right.

[A]

Now it's center Musetti, right?

[C]

Yeah. We have in Italy on eagle, the action, as we say in New York. Yeah.

[A]

I don't see a world where, like, I love Musetti. I think he's such a good tennis player. I think the variety. And by the way, can we give props? Two years ago, before he made the finals of Queens, like, 15 months ago, Musetti, on any other service besides Claire is like, oh, he's not going to win that match. The guy has made himself into such a good, consistent top 10 tennis player. And also, I just watched Sinner beat boob, like, 1, 1 and 1. Bublek has a bomb. Like, he's a 4. 4 and 4. And that's a beating. If you're playing Bublek because of his weaponry, like, obviously, we can't say.

[B]

Does that register in the locker room? Like, when you see that, you're like, holy, yes.

[A]

And I'm not one on, like, everyone's like, a statement win. I. I don't. I think I get right. Used too much one. One and one against a guy who can hold serve a lot, who be.

[C]

Who beat him. Different surface. But he, you know, beat him the last time they played.

[A]

And the other thing about center and Carlos, now it's like Sinner had a match where he won, like, a tough four setter in a grand slam against someone who was also seated against Chapo. And we're like, oh, that was really rough. I'm like, we want tough four setter. Like, we're. He's created such a weird narrative to where if someone wins a set against him, then we're like, that's tough. What's going on? Like, it's such a weird thing. Sinner Musetti, I'm assuming you have Sinner.

[C]

I have Sinner.

[A]

Okay. Faa, by the way.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

This is.

[B]

Neither one of you had him.

[A]

Just want to say that I might have had him. I think I might have had him losing for. But I'll tell you this. I cheer for him because he seems to do all of the right things the right way. He acts great. People really like him. He works his ass off. He's done things the right way. For a long time. Happy for his successes. I had Zverev in the quarters. I had Zverev to the semis. That's not great. That's screwy McGooey. John.

[B]

Hugh.

[C]

John.

[B]

FAA losing Desverev. You had him going that far.

[C]

I mean, I had him going that far, yeah.

[A]

Way to go.

[C]

FAA, who's only 25 years old. I mean, people talk about him. Oh, the windows closed. I mean, the guy just turned 25. He played center in Cincinnati on a match we had on Teddis channel. I think I said this on quick serve. It looked like two guys playing two different sports. I mean, it looked like center playing a qualify. I think it was 02.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

For him to come back with very little momentum, beat Zvera, one of the better wins of his career, and then back that up by beating Rublev. What a nice tournament for. For. For Felix. I don't. What do we think of this interesting match? And he's. He's beaten Diminor before. Very different kind of opponent than Rublev or Zverev. I'm just hard to bet against Diminor though, isn't it?

[A]

I'm just going to tell you right now, like, anyone who says that demon is like, oh, he's just fast and he's a counterpuncher. Hasn't watched him play. The guy is all over the net. Like, he. He is able to redirect flat to both sides. He does the thing where the ball's hanging. And he knows. And this is actually Connors taught me this. He knows he's decided that he is going in before he hits the approach shot. He's really good at floating and catch. He has great volleys. And anyone that says he's like a retriever or counter puncher just hasn't watched him. And they're lazy and they realize he's not real tall and he's really fast and he doesn't serve great.

[C]

Not bad. Look at his serve stats.

[A]

His serve stats are good, but that's because of the rest of his game. Like he's. He doesn't. If you. If you isolate his serve and put it with a guy 80 in the world, that person's now 100 in the world, right?

[B]

Like, he's had like 10 titles, right? And I think eight of them are on hardcourt. What is that about knowing this surface.

[A]

The movement he can stop and start and get out of the corners. But like this, this lazy narrative of like, he's not 6 foot 5, so therefore he must be a retriever because he doesn't serve big. That guy can. He doesn't. Blunt force trauma you from the baseline. He bleeds you and then gets in. The guy's a great tennis player. I like Demon going through, but I'm really, really happy for Felix's successes. Like, I really like and think he does things the right way. And I find myself cheering for him because of that.

[B]

It's gonna be a fun match.

[A]

Next one. I had Novak. Fritz. I had Fritz going through because I just didn't know what we were dealing with, with not playing since Wimbledon. That's going to be my first flip. Oh, Novak is 10 and oh against Taylor Fritz. Novak has found himself the last two. Yeah, I'm. I have Novak. I'm flipping.

[C]

Oh, man. I'm flipping the other way. I was gonna say that's my one flip.

[B]

You had Fritz through.

[C]

Okay. No, I. I think Fritz.

[A]

I'll send terms. We'll trade.

[C]

All right, let's. You acknowledge Taylor Fritz at some point. I've been talking about being so reliable.

[A]

You acknowledge him. I've been talking all the time.

[C]

We've been pretty good. But all right. He doesn't have the, you know, he doesn't have the branding. He doesn't have the flash. All this guy does is win and reliably goes deep at majors, at least the ones not playing on clay. I think this is the match he gets him. First time on ash, by the way, for Taylor.

[A]

Taylor last year was requesting to play out on Louie also. He likes that court.

[C]

I think this year it's Carlos. The way it was told to me, it was sort of Carlos and Novak are on the same day. So what are we going to do?

[A]

So, yeah, he doesn't mind.

[C]

I think. I think Taylor's ready for his first career win over Novak Djokovic. I'm picking Taylor.

[A]

Novak has only gotten better. Like, the first two rounds, it looked like he hadn't played since Wimbledon. Like, he looked. He looked for by Novak standards. Right. I know people are going to clip this incentive. He looked bad for Novak. Like, he didn't.

[C]

He was struggling as much.

[A]

Struggling. And then, you know, you look up and last night against Drew, he's like just dialed. I mean, he's hitting. He's hitting dimes on the court. I just. This is going to be at night where I don't think we're dealing with a sun issue. Taylor hasn't even played other yet. Oh, and 10 is. Oh, and 10 is a big thing. That's a big deal. That's a matchup problem. Right. I think I probably picked Fritz just because I was worried about Novak getting to the quarters. But I'm flipping that one. JW's flipping the other way. I had Shelton and Alcaraz. So of the ones I missed, I literally had one guy who lost because he had the same right. Because. Because they lost, which was Verif. Draper pulled out and Shelton, obviously, I hope he gets better soon. But his left shoulder went badly. It doesn't matter. We both had Alcaraz through anyway. So we have Alcaraz. Anything changing? Center Alcaraz in the final.

[C]

I'm going Sunday morning over Saturday night. Sticking with center.

[A]

You're sticking with center over Alcaraz. I also have center over Alcaraz. Does that mean that I win? If we have the same and I'm ahead now.

[C]

See, you didn't tell me this. Does that mean strategic change? Does that mean here?

[A]

Let's. Let's. Am I walking to the net? Thank you.

[C]

All right, cheers.

[A]

We.

[C]

All right. Did I just back myself into a corner? So he wins.

[A]

Yeah, we have a win too. That sucks, man.

[C]

Can we Novak redo? I'm going to do. Yeah, you do. Re. Redraw.

[A]

Redraw the redraw you have. Sabalenka basically needs to win the tournament for you not to lose every way.

[C]

This. Is that correct? It's like a let.

[A]

Oh, you want to hear.

[C]

Oh, you want to have a little 30 second detour?

[A]

Yep.

[C]

Did you notice there's a little. Little news. I don't know. News break. But notice that there is no device on the net this year for lets. Did you notice that they leave it to the chair. There's some crazy dispute with a technology company. There's nothing on the net to decide if it's a let or not.

[A]

Wait, so they're just going by like hearing.

[C]

Yeah. I mean the. The chair umpire is making these calls. This is like 1978.

[B]

I was about to say what. What they do before the technology.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

They used to have someone.

[C]

They used to have someone.

[A]

Yeah, they used to have someone that sat in a chair literally with one finger on the net and if it ping. If it.

[C]

Exactly.

[A]

They go let.

[C]

Yeah, right.

[B]

God, if they.

[A]

They should bring a helmet back.

[B]

So wait, here's jobs in this country.

[C]

Wait, here's.

[A]

What do you.

[C]

What do you make of this though now? Because they have this technology dispute and there's some sort of patent dispute anyway, we don't have net technology. And the majors, I'm told, might be using this as an opportunity to do away with the service let entirely and just play it out.

[B]

Wait, I don't have any tinfoil here.

[A]

No, let's.

[B]

Dang it.

[C]

What do you think?

[A]

No, let's. Yeah. No, I mean, whatever. They're. They're doing that.

[B]

And while they're in college doing that already.

[C]

College juniors, too.

[B]

Sorry, let me interrupt.

[C]

It'll be.

[A]

It'll be, like, amazing. Like, but, like, as soon as it's deuce and someone gets a lucky, like, court, everyone's like, this sucks.

[C]

Right? I'm thinking it goes both ways. Or. Or like I hit a nice serve, and then it pops up and turns into a sitter for the returner who can.

[A]

Like, you know what? I want more than that. And maybe this is for the recap show, like, your winners and errors, but I'm so fucking sick of people catching their tosses. I can't handle it. It's very simply. Let's do a poll of the room. Is the toss part of the serve?

[B]

It's like, well, I'm new here. It's like a boss.

[A]

Is that. We understand you don't know anything about this.

[B]

I always assumed it was.

[A]

Is the toss. Is that. Aren't we past the point of starting the serve if the toss is in the air?

[B]

I mean, in baseball, it's a bulk, right?

[C]

I mean, exactly.

[B]

If you fall, start, everyone catches start. Like, screw.

[A]

Let's. Everyone's like, that takes too much time. You know what takes more time is letting the clock go down to one, then restart, fake tossing it, catching it, and then finally tossing it. 10 seconds. You should not be able to catch a toss ever. You should have to hit it or it's a fault. Why should. Like, I couldn't redo backhands. The toss is a skill. Like, it's an actual trainable skill. I don't understand why you should be able to start your serve over once the motion has started. Is the toss part of the serve?

[C]

I. Like, we talked about this in Newport, right?

[A]

I know, and it's killing me.

[C]

What do you think of Martinez idea, though, which is basically, the serve clock doesn't stop until racket hits ball. So if you catch your top, you're not like, two seconds to, like, have a slap.

[A]

No, I mean, that'd be. That'd be good theater. But, like, also, you shouldn't be able to redo something.

[C]

No, you're right. And we want to speed things up anyway. Let's.

[A]

You know, we should speed up the serve is the end of the show. You got anything else for me, Mike?

[B]

Well, first we need to go through the odds now that you've decided who you guys like to move forward, but we need to go through the odds presented by our friends at FanDuel. And what I want to understand is the outright odds. Right. So you've picked who they are, but what is the pathway forward for some of these athletes. Yeah, to actually make it and maybe win this thing, despite the fact that you guys have picked the easiest picks of all time, which are the favorites. So like Amanda and Samova, she's wrapping out right now. She just won this match. These are live odds that are moving, so we won't move on to that one. But Jess Pula plus 1300. What does Jess Pula need to do to see this thing through and get a W?

[A]

Just Pula's entire universe is going to center around her serve. She will break. She will win a majority of rallies. If her first serve percentage is up around 60%, she has a good shot in any match. She beat Egan. The quarters here last year when Sabalenka gets a hold of second serves and just talked about she. She was practicing against arena and walked off the court like Wednesday before. If she's having to defend her second serve too much, then it goes sideways. If she makes a bunch of first serves and is able to control and distribute her ball striking is so good, it's effortless. Her first serve percentage tells the story more often than not.

[B]

What about a Naomi Osaka? She literally probably jumped up the highest out of everyone. Now she's a plus 470 is when you look at what somebody's doing coming in. And then now she's a plus 470. She's the third best favorite in the women's side to win this thing. How much of that is past performance and how much that is just what she's doing.

[A]

Well, I'll give you past performance and I'll give you current. How many times has Naomi Osaka won the tournament at a slam when she's made the quarters? Yeah, every time she. This is like she has four Grand Slam wins and this is her fifth quarterfinal that she's ever made.

[B]

Yeah, that's nuts.

[A]

So that tells the story when she gets matches and when she goes deep in tournaments that she becomes dangerous. She's had the matches recently and I'm normally, you know, the. I say the eye test tells so much until you get to a matchup that is not favorable. Yeah. So it's a, it's, it's a combination. Right. She knows what it's like she's not going to be intimidated to get to the semis or finals. It's more about her. And if she's on that front foot and if her error counts are down, if she's making first serves, I mean, we saw it against Coco. She's. She's brutal.

[C]

But, but I think to, to Mike's point, I think a lot of this is not based on what happened, you know, in 2018. This is about what she's done the first four matches here.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I mean look, she's, look at it, look at her odds going into like Roland Garros or Rumalin this year versus now. It's, it's what we've seen the last month.

[B]

So looking on the men's side, you have Musetti at plus 7,000. Right. But you have Demon and FAA. Who would you think had the better.

[A]

Odds to win that match?

[C]

Demon or faa?

[B]

Yeah, the tournament, the whole thing. Who would you think has the better odds right now heading into this matchup to win the whole thing?

[A]

Probably faa because you're asking the question and also because you're talking about who has a better matchup against center. FAA can hold serve more often. Demon is amazing. But when he gets to a Novak or a center where they're just as consistent, they can basically like, you know, it's probably FAA just because of the weaponry.

[C]

Wouldn't you before.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Wouldn't you agree with that?

[A]

But I don't like any of them. Just.

[C]

No, but don't you think Demon is probably the odds on favorite to win that head to head match, but FAA is probably the better bet to win the whole tournament?

[A]

Just the power and it's not by much, I guess. So I just don't the better bet. It doesn't mean it's a good bet.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, as of right now, it's FAA is plus 4,500. Demon is plus 5,000. And then obviously you have the guys rounding out the top. I think Sinner obviously and Alcaraz are very, very close. But you have Novak at + 1400. You have Taylor fr@ + 2000. Do you think that that should be farther apart for Novak and Fritz, or do you think Fritz has the opportunity, the way he's been playing, to do better than those odds?

[C]

You're talking about the tournament. I mean the tournament that's the problem these days, right? I mean, even if you beat Novak, great, great quarterfinal, win one of the great wins, signature win of your career.

[A]

Possibly, you still have to win al grand. So basically that's The. It's not. It's not about Fritz versus And it's a disrespectful. Exactly. What are the. Basically we're saying is what are the odds that Fritz beats Novak Alcaraz and center on the trot within five days in best of five. And you were saying that. Are those not. Are those odds too short? No, no. That's hard. That's really hard. I'm sure I don't know what he feels like.

[C]

What.

[B]

Now I'm.

[C]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

No, but.

[C]

No, but seriously, that's what people used to say. They said that the advantage of being Feder Nadal was that you only had to beat one to win the tournament. Everyone else had to beat both of them. So what. I mean, I think right now through. Through four rounds here, wouldn't we. Wouldn't we agree Carlos has looked better unbalanced and center.

[A]

Yeah, but it doesn't matter. They're both. They're both playing well. It's just about matchups. Like, Carlos is. He's like kind of the. The. The one that's a little bit more up and down, but when he's in full flight against someone who's not like. But also week one, three rounds, everyone gets through. As long as they're both striping the ball. They're both. We're not worried about either one of them. The matchup with Lefty and Chapo and, you know, kind of shot maker doesn't have like. That's just an awkward matchup for him. He had a losing record against him going in. Right. Like. But yeah, Alcaraz looked better. And I. That doesn't matter at all to me.

[B]

I mean, the rods are pretty close.

[A]

What are they?

[B]

Minus 130. You got Alcaraz at plus 160. I mean, and that could shift after the next round, right? It could flop the other way.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

The eyeball test matters to me less than the matchup test.

[B]

Yeah. Well, those are odds. Brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. This is great. It's a good one.

[A]

That's great.

[C]

All right.

[A]

All right. So we're gonna go. We're just in a random room. So we're. We're all gonna. We're just. Just. I just want the fit. We're not all gonna stay here tonight.

[C]

No.

[A]

No, we're not. No.

[B]

Were we.

[A]

No, I don't. I'm. I'm away. We are. We are. We are leaving. This has been.

[C]

What is it?

[A]

I was about to say quick serve. It's not quick served. Is this served?

[B]

This is just served, right?

[C]

This was reserved.

[A]

OG this is reserved. Oh, well done. Well done.

[C]

No LI core.

[A]

That's it. Nothing better. All right, we'll see you soon. Foreign thanks to ServiceNow for their support ServiceNow wants to help people do the fulfilling work they actually want to do. Work like hosting this podcast. You know what people don't want to do? Boring, busy work. Now, with AI agents built into the ServiceNow platform, you can automate millions of repetitive tasks in every corner of your business, it, HR and more so your people can focus on the work that they want to do. That's putting AI agents to work for people. It's your turn. Get [e-mail] AI agents support for serve comes from FanDuel. You can bet on the only Grand Slam tennis tournament played in the US with FanDuel. Visit FanDuel.com to download America's number one sportsbook and bet on one of the biggest events in tennis. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in Affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18/in present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. First online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See [e-mail] gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text hopeny in New York.