Served with Andy Roddick
2026 Australian Open Draw Show: Sabalenka, Alcaraz, & The One-Point Slam
January 16, 2026
Episode Overview
In this high-energy episode, host Andy Roddick—joined by tennis journalist Jon Wertheim (JW), producer Mike, and others—digs into the 2026 Australian Open. The crew debates draw highlights, shares predictions and hot takes, and reviews innovations like the One-Point Slam event. With their trademark mix of banter, expertise, and self-deprecation, they preview both the women’s and men’s fields, spotlighting players to watch, matchups, and how new tournament formats are shaking up the scene.
Key Discussion Points and Highlights
1. Life Down Under, Weather Variance, and Tournament Atmosphere
- JW, reporting live from Australia, jokes about his “wet bulb intern” and notes how the Australian Open’s climate can swing from "legit cold" to "playing in a hairdryer" (01:10).
- Andy reminisces about playing late-night sessions with surprising weather, setting the stage for how conditions might impact this year’s event.
2. The One-Point Slam – Tennis' Newest Gimmick
- The hosts are enthusiastic about the new One-Point Slam—a winner-take-all single point event.
- Andy: “It’s literally like winning 27 coin flips. What a win. Easy entertainment…the ask of the players is low. You can put in celebrities, the star power doesn’t have to just come from the top players” (01:47).
- Mike: “If you would have told me…Carlos Alcaraz tweeting the name Jordan Smith after the dude won a million…playing tennis, I wouldn’t have believed you” (02:44).
- JW: “People are literally looking at the draws of the One Point Slam. I think…there’s an interesting conversation about the sample size…The players are here—money’s changing hands” (03:49).
- Discussion of how pre-Slam exhibition weeks (One-Point Slam, mixed doubles before US Open) are boosting player profiles, providing marketing juice, and giving fans new ways to connect with tennis beyond traditional formats.
3. Served Podcast Bracket Challenge—New Rules & Strategy
- Producer Mike introduces a revamped bracket and scoring system for fans:
- Points increase with each round, from 10 (Round 1) up to 100 (Final).
- TWO bonus point opportunities:
- Unseeded Upset Bonus: Double points for correctly picking an unseeded player to beat a seed (09:00).
- Seed Gap Bonus: Bonus points equivalent to the seed gap when a lower-seed beats a higher-seed (10:00).
- Andy jokes that the new system will keep things interesting: “Let’s keep the Hail Mary in play…that was one of my complaints slash feedback” (10:27).
- The panel debates optimal strategy: should you go safe, chase big points, or gamble on upsets?
Detailed Draw Analysis & Predictions
Women’s Draw Breakdown
Top Quarter – Sabalenka’s Section
- Andy: “It’s going to be tough to go against Sabalenka” (13:31). Picks Sabalenka to power through, likes qualifier picks for early-round upsets.
- Notable quote: “If Katie McNally is awesome, I just value a qualifier…getting on site, getting in the conditions, winning three matches” (14:08).
- JW: Echoes Sabalenka’s dominance, but highlights a few dark horses (e.g., Towson, Jovic as rising stars).
Second Quarter
- Emerging name Eva Jovic identified as a future top-10 player:
- Andy: “She’s really good…she has this quiet intensity. Not intense just for the sake of showing people she’s intense” (17:08).
- Both lean Sabalenka for semis; Andy talks up the value of player momentum and health going into slams.
Coco Gauff’s Section
- Skepticism about Venus Williams’ draw; tough matches for Coco Gauff against Danilovic and Vondrousova.
- Andy: “Danilovic’s awkward. She plays strange. I mean, I don’t think Coco has the easiest draw” (18:10).
- Panel discusses United Cup as prep and the way it helps players rebound from bad matches (19:31).
Upset Specials & Deep Runs
- Andy: “Let’s take a flyer. Fuck it. We’re already here.”(20:57)
- Notable picks: Mukova to beat Navarro, Svitolina to quarters, strong support for Jovic and Andreva as breakout stories (21:26).
Bottom Half
- Andy can’t “‘quit’” Rybakina or Muchova for deep runs:
- “We all know this…It didn’t help at the US Open, I gotta be honest” (26:52).
- Osaka flagged as dangerous but unknown after return; discussion of Swiatek’s health concerns.
- JW: “She’s a little dinged up…cut practices short, she’s not in great spirits.” (30:25)
- Consensus emerges: Sabalenka and Rybakina among favorites, with Gauff and Anisimova as strong contenders for semifinals.
Women’s Final Picks (31:00–32:00)
- Andy: Sabalenka over Anisimova.
- JW: Sides with Rybakina “…to win the tournament”.
Notable Quotes – Women’s Draw
- “She’s going for three in four years and in the fourth year she made the final” – JW on Sabalenka’s dominance (31:52).
- “You get more [support] from other places…Coco’s right. Everyone else who had emotions about it is wrong.” – Andy on US vs. international fan support (45:20).
Men’s Draw Breakdown
Top Quarter – Alcaraz’s Path
- Discussion on Alcaraz’s coaching changes and expectations:
- JW: “No matter what he does, it will be seen through the prism of his coaching shakeup…I would encourage people to let this play out” (34:03).
- Andy: “He’s a generational talent…one of the most talented guys I’ve ever seen with a racket. He’s a wizard.” (34:38)
- “Mutet vs Aussie” in round one flagged as must-watch drama (37:34).
Bublik/Brooksby Chaos Zone
- Brooksby picked as a possible disruptor, Bublik’s unpredictability discussed at length (“confuse and conquer method”) (39:28).
Tiafoe, De Minaur & Aussie Advantage
- Sustained debate on whether home-ground pressure helps or hinders Aussies.
- Andy: “At home in Australia, I think Demon…has made runs there” (42:18).
Zverev, Norrie, and the “Hot Pick” Section
- “Zverev can play average…just knows how to pace himself through a slam” (46:25).
- Diallo noted as a future star, but Zverev considered too solid at present.
- Rublev and Serendolo mentioned as potential spoilers, but consensus leans Zverev through to quarters (48:10).
Medvedev’s Quarter
- Andy: “I have Mehdi through to the quarters. Medi over De Jong. I have…Morosian through to the third round” (50:20).
- JW highlights qualifier Learner Tien as dangerous; Andy shouts out Marcus Giron’s “quads” as a hidden weapon in five-setters (51:34).
Musetti, Dimitrov, Mahach – The “Wild West” Section
- Andy goes bold: “I have Mahach in the fourth round…give me all of the bonus points” (54:07).
- Lively debate over Musetti’s “gorgonzola vs. pecorino” toughness metaphor (57:05).
Bottom Quarter/Fritz & Djokovic Watch
- Concern about Fritz’s knee, but both Andy and JW back his ability to pace himself for a major (58:06).
- Explanation on how modern practice scrutiny doesn’t always indicate real injury concern (60:54).
- Consensus: don’t bet against Novak making the semis—“that’s what he does” (65:56).
Young Guns & Qualifiers
- Discussion of Zizou Bergs vs. Hurkacz, Nakashima’s undervalued game, and Ben Shelton’s tricky path (65:24, 68:22).
- Shapovalov picked by some to get through to the fourth round, potentially setting up a U.S. showdown (71:55).
Sinner Section
- JW and Andy agree Sinner’s draw is “very comfortable” in early rounds, but discuss the challenge posed by hitters like Fonseca and big servers like Pecchy Paracard (77:44).
- “For Sinner…you just don’t want anything weird.” (77:44)
- Andy: “I have Sinner in the semis…”
Semifinals & Final Predictions
Men’s Final Foresight (79:50–81:18)
- Andy: “I’m going to take Alcaraz…Sinner to win the tournament.”
- JW: “I have Novak to the semis again…I think Sinner wins another major here.”
- JW calls attention to the stranglehold of Alcaraz & Sinner: “Eight straight majors won by one of two guys…do we see anyone else breaching the perimeter?” (79:50)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “It’s literally like winning 27 coin flips.” – Andy on One-Point Slam’s luck-driven drama (01:47)
- “If only [Marat Safin] was good looking.” – Andy, joking about infamous tennis star (50:08)
- “You can’t quit Rybakina.” – Andy, on his own tennis prediction vices (26:52)
- “She’s more gorgonzola than pecorino.” – JW, musing on Musetti’s softness/toughness (57:05)
- “Give me all of the bonus points…having way more fun with these irresponsible picks!” – Andy, embracing new bracket scoring (54:20)
- “Your expertise, whatever your psychologist said…” – Andy, poking fun at Tetlock’s prediction theory after a bad pick (66:19)
Highlighted Timestamps
- 01:43 – One-Point Slam recap and opinions
- 10:00 – Bracket scoring innovations explained
- 13:31 – Sabalenka’s women’s draw prospects
- 17:08 – Eva Jovic spotlight
- 18:10 – Gauff’s tricky section analyzed
- 26:52 – Andy’s Rybakina loyalty
- 30:25 – JW on Swiatek’s health
- 31:52 – JW on Sabalenka’s Melbourne dominance
- 34:38 – Alcaraz’s generational talent (Andy/JW)
- 37:34 – Mutet vs. Aussie popcorn match preview
- 39:28 – Bublik/Brooksby chaos corner
- 42:18 – De Minaur’s home-court advantage
- 54:20 – Andy reveling in bonus points and wild picks
- 57:05 – “Gorgonzola vs. Pecorino” Musetti burn
- 60:54 – Practice schedule/injury rumors myth-busting
- 65:56 – Novak to semis “because that’s what he does”
- 71:55 – Shapovalov, Munar, and fast-court upsets
- 77:44 – Sinner section: avoiding dangerous floaters
- 79:50 – Reflection on the Alcaraz/Sinner era
- 81:02 – Final picks summarized
Closing & Listener Engagement
- Fans can join the Served bracket challenge, play against the hosts, and follow daily “Quick Served” daily podcast/email updates (82:03).
- Each picks their must-watch first-round match:
- JW: “Jensen Brooksby vs. Bublik” (83:04)
- Andy: “Mutet vs. Aussie school kid—muted yelling at Aussies is must-see” (83:11)
Tone and Takeaways
The episode is playful, candid, and loaded with inside-baseball tennis talk and wry humor. The crew’s chemistry shines through as they debate predictions, embrace their own biases, and gently rib each other for inevitable bracket disasters. Listeners get expert analysis, transparent logic on controversial picks, and a feel for both the unpredictability and narrative depth of Grand Slam tennis.
For more daily updates and to join the bracket game, go to servedpodcast.com.