2026 Australian Open Draw Show: Sabalenka, Alcaraz, & The One-Point Slam

Summary

Served with Andy Roddick

2026 Australian Open Draw Show: Sabalenka, Alcaraz, & The One-Point Slam
January 16, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this high-energy episode, host Andy Roddick—joined by tennis journalist Jon Wertheim (JW), producer Mike, and others—digs into the 2026 Australian Open. The crew debates draw highlights, shares predictions and hot takes, and reviews innovations like the One-Point Slam event. With their trademark mix of banter, expertise, and self-deprecation, they preview both the women’s and men’s fields, spotlighting players to watch, matchups, and how new tournament formats are shaking up the scene.

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Key Discussion Points and Highlights

1. Life Down Under, Weather Variance, and Tournament Atmosphere

• JW, reporting live from Australia, jokes about his “wet bulb intern” and notes how the Australian Open’s climate can swing from "legit cold" to "playing in a hairdryer" (01:10).
• Andy reminisces about playing late-night sessions with surprising weather, setting the stage for how conditions might impact this year’s event.

2. The One-Point Slam – Tennis' Newest Gimmick

• The hosts are enthusiastic about the new One-Point Slam—a winner-take-all single point event.
  • Andy: “It’s literally like winning 27 coin flips. What a win. Easy entertainment…the ask of the players is low. You can put in celebrities, the star power doesn’t have to just come from the top players” (01:47).
  • Mike: “If you would have told me…Carlos Alcaraz tweeting the name Jordan Smith after the dude won a million…playing tennis, I wouldn’t have believed you” (02:44).
  • JW: “People are literally looking at the draws of the One Point Slam. I think…there’s an interesting conversation about the sample size…The players are here—money’s changing hands” (03:49).
• Discussion of how pre-Slam exhibition weeks (One-Point Slam, mixed doubles before US Open) are boosting player profiles, providing marketing juice, and giving fans new ways to connect with tennis beyond traditional formats.

3. Served Podcast Bracket Challenge—New Rules & Strategy

• Producer Mike introduces a revamped bracket and scoring system for fans:
  • Points increase with each round, from 10 (Round 1) up to 100 (Final).
  • TWO bonus point opportunities:
    • Unseeded Upset Bonus: Double points for correctly picking an unseeded player to beat a seed (09:00).
    • Seed Gap Bonus: Bonus points equivalent to the seed gap when a lower-seed beats a higher-seed (10:00).
• Andy jokes that the new system will keep things interesting: “Let’s keep the Hail Mary in play…that was one of my complaints slash feedback” (10:27).
• The panel debates optimal strategy: should you go safe, chase big points, or gamble on upsets?

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Detailed Draw Analysis & Predictions

Women’s Draw Breakdown

Top Quarter – Sabalenka’s Section

• Andy: “It’s going to be tough to go against Sabalenka” (13:31). Picks Sabalenka to power through, likes qualifier picks for early-round upsets.
• Notable quote: “If Katie McNally is awesome, I just value a qualifier…getting on site, getting in the conditions, winning three matches” (14:08).
• JW: Echoes Sabalenka’s dominance, but highlights a few dark horses (e.g., Towson, Jovic as rising stars).

Second Quarter

• Emerging name Eva Jovic identified as a future top-10 player:
  • Andy: “She’s really good…she has this quiet intensity. Not intense just for the sake of showing people she’s intense” (17:08).
• Both lean Sabalenka for semis; Andy talks up the value of player momentum and health going into slams.

Coco Gauff’s Section

• Skepticism about Venus Williams’ draw; tough matches for Coco Gauff against Danilovic and Vondrousova.
  • Andy: “Danilovic’s awkward. She plays strange. I mean, I don’t think Coco has the easiest draw” (18:10).
• Panel discusses United Cup as prep and the way it helps players rebound from bad matches (19:31).

Upset Specials & Deep Runs

• Andy: “Let’s take a flyer. Fuck it. We’re already here.”(20:57)
• Notable picks: Mukova to beat Navarro, Svitolina to quarters, strong support for Jovic and Andreva as breakout stories (21:26).

Bottom Half

• Andy can’t “‘quit’” Rybakina or Muchova for deep runs:
  • “We all know this…It didn’t help at the US Open, I gotta be honest” (26:52).
• Osaka flagged as dangerous but unknown after return; discussion of Swiatek’s health concerns.
  • JW: “She’s a little dinged up…cut practices short, she’s not in great spirits.” (30:25)
• Consensus emerges: Sabalenka and Rybakina among favorites, with Gauff and Anisimova as strong contenders for semifinals.

Women’s Final Picks (31:00–32:00)

• Andy: Sabalenka over Anisimova.
• JW: Sides with Rybakina “…to win the tournament”.

Notable Quotes – Women’s Draw

• “She’s going for three in four years and in the fourth year she made the final” – JW on Sabalenka’s dominance (31:52).
• “You get more [support] from other places…Coco’s right. Everyone else who had emotions about it is wrong.” – Andy on US vs. international fan support (45:20).

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Men’s Draw Breakdown

Top Quarter – Alcaraz’s Path

• Discussion on Alcaraz’s coaching changes and expectations:
  • JW: “No matter what he does, it will be seen through the prism of his coaching shakeup…I would encourage people to let this play out” (34:03).
  • Andy: “He’s a generational talent…one of the most talented guys I’ve ever seen with a racket. He’s a wizard.” (34:38)
• “Mutet vs Aussie” in round one flagged as must-watch drama (37:34).

Bublik/Brooksby Chaos Zone

• Brooksby picked as a possible disruptor, Bublik’s unpredictability discussed at length (“confuse and conquer method”) (39:28).

Tiafoe, De Minaur & Aussie Advantage

• Sustained debate on whether home-ground pressure helps or hinders Aussies.
• Andy: “At home in Australia, I think Demon…has made runs there” (42:18).

Zverev, Norrie, and the “Hot Pick” Section

• “Zverev can play average…just knows how to pace himself through a slam” (46:25).
• Diallo noted as a future star, but Zverev considered too solid at present.
• Rublev and Serendolo mentioned as potential spoilers, but consensus leans Zverev through to quarters (48:10).

Medvedev’s Quarter

• Andy: “I have Mehdi through to the quarters. Medi over De Jong. I have…Morosian through to the third round” (50:20).
• JW highlights qualifier Learner Tien as dangerous; Andy shouts out Marcus Giron’s “quads” as a hidden weapon in five-setters (51:34).

Musetti, Dimitrov, Mahach – The “Wild West” Section

• Andy goes bold: “I have Mahach in the fourth round…give me all of the bonus points” (54:07).
• Lively debate over Musetti’s “gorgonzola vs. pecorino” toughness metaphor (57:05).

Bottom Quarter/Fritz & Djokovic Watch

• Concern about Fritz’s knee, but both Andy and JW back his ability to pace himself for a major (58:06).
• Explanation on how modern practice scrutiny doesn’t always indicate real injury concern (60:54).
• Consensus: don’t bet against Novak making the semis—“that’s what he does” (65:56).

Young Guns & Qualifiers

• Discussion of Zizou Bergs vs. Hurkacz, Nakashima’s undervalued game, and Ben Shelton’s tricky path (65:24, 68:22).
• Shapovalov picked by some to get through to the fourth round, potentially setting up a U.S. showdown (71:55).

Sinner Section

• JW and Andy agree Sinner’s draw is “very comfortable” in early rounds, but discuss the challenge posed by hitters like Fonseca and big servers like Pecchy Paracard (77:44).
  • “For Sinner…you just don’t want anything weird.” (77:44)
• Andy: “I have Sinner in the semis…”

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Semifinals & Final Predictions

Men’s Final Foresight (79:50–81:18)

• Andy: “I’m going to take Alcaraz…Sinner to win the tournament.”
• JW: “I have Novak to the semis again…I think Sinner wins another major here.”
• JW calls attention to the stranglehold of Alcaraz & Sinner: “Eight straight majors won by one of two guys…do we see anyone else breaching the perimeter?” (79:50)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s literally like winning 27 coin flips.” – Andy on One-Point Slam’s luck-driven drama (01:47)
• “If only [Marat Safin] was good looking.” – Andy, joking about infamous tennis star (50:08)
• “You can’t quit Rybakina.” – Andy, on his own tennis prediction vices (26:52)
• “She’s more gorgonzola than pecorino.” – JW, musing on Musetti’s softness/toughness (57:05)
• “Give me all of the bonus points…having way more fun with these irresponsible picks!” – Andy, embracing new bracket scoring (54:20)
• “Your expertise, whatever your psychologist said…” – Andy, poking fun at Tetlock’s prediction theory after a bad pick (66:19)

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Highlighted Timestamps

• 01:43 – One-Point Slam recap and opinions
• 10:00 – Bracket scoring innovations explained
• 13:31 – Sabalenka’s women’s draw prospects
• 17:08 – Eva Jovic spotlight
• 18:10 – Gauff’s tricky section analyzed
• 26:52 – Andy’s Rybakina loyalty
• 30:25 – JW on Swiatek’s health
• 31:52 – JW on Sabalenka’s Melbourne dominance
• 34:38 – Alcaraz’s generational talent (Andy/JW)
• 37:34 – Mutet vs. Aussie popcorn match preview
• 39:28 – Bublik/Brooksby chaos corner
• 42:18 – De Minaur’s home-court advantage
• 54:20 – Andy reveling in bonus points and wild picks
• 57:05 – “Gorgonzola vs. Pecorino” Musetti burn
• 60:54 – Practice schedule/injury rumors myth-busting
• 65:56 – Novak to semis “because that’s what he does”
• 71:55 – Shapovalov, Munar, and fast-court upsets
• 77:44 – Sinner section: avoiding dangerous floaters
• 79:50 – Reflection on the Alcaraz/Sinner era
• 81:02 – Final picks summarized

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Closing & Listener Engagement

• Fans can join the Served bracket challenge, play against the hosts, and follow daily “Quick Served” daily podcast/email updates (82:03).
• Each picks their must-watch first-round match:
  • JW: “Jensen Brooksby vs. Bublik” (83:04)
  • Andy: “Mutet vs. Aussie school kid—muted yelling at Aussies is must-see” (83:11)

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Tone and Takeaways

The episode is playful, candid, and loaded with inside-baseball tennis talk and wry humor. The crew’s chemistry shines through as they debate predictions, embrace their own biases, and gently rib each other for inevitable bracket disasters. Listeners get expert analysis, transparent logic on controversial picks, and a feel for both the unpredictability and narrative depth of Grand Slam tennis.

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For more daily updates and to join the bracket game, go to servedpodcast.com.

Transcript

[Andy]

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[Mike]

Let's go.

[Andy]

JW and I will look like idiots in like 10 days is how it normally works. JW, what's up? How is it down under?

[John (JW)]

It's lovely down under. So far. It has not been scorching hot. I don't know if you want to incorporate that into what we're going to do for the next hour, but lovely country, lovely city and it has been, it has been lovely climate. So far.

[Mike]

You haven't tested the wet bulb temperature yet?

[Andy]

Oh, God.

[Mike]

I mean, yeah, we just.

[John (JW)]

We are intern, right? Our intern wet bulb. Our wet bulb intern.

[Andy]

We have an appetition out. I will tell you that, like Australia as much as any place. We played like the variants it could be. I played night sessions there. I remember I played this guy Zabaletta one time, like in one of my first years down there. We played night session was like 52 degrees. It was legit cold. And then, you know, the other way is like you're literally. I say this and I say a lot of stuff. That's for effect. It feels like you're playing in a hairdryer sometimes. Like the variance is actually pretty significant. But anyways, what are, what are we? Oh, you have, you have.

[Mike]

Well, before that. You want to talk about the one point slam?

[Andy]

Oh, that was awesome.

[Mike]

Give our friend Jordan. Can I get props?

[Andy]

Yeah, yeah. Jordan Smith. Props, but him props. It's literally like winning like 27 coin flips. And what a win. Like easy entertainment. Not a big ask of the players. You can put in celebrities and the star power doesn't have to just come from the top players. You get like those vignettes, like they're telling stories. Like someone that's about to go either sing their ass off or suck on Idol, you know, like there is. There's so many, like, cool factors about it. Techie Sean, did you like it as. As a. As a kind of a new ish. Last couple, three years, like tennis, hardcore person. Yeah, I loved it. It's just one of those things that brings more of an energy that's easier to get into if you're new to tennis. I feel like, yeah, it was just relatable. Yeah, very. Like, how do you make Alcaraz in, in the stadium court relatable?

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

Oh, you put your chucker friend up there against him to play a point. Like, I mean, I thought it was a win.

[Mike]

I thought if you would have told me that on my bingo card for 2026, it would be Carlos Alcaraz tweeting the name Jordan Smith after the dude won a million do playing tennis, I wouldn't have believed you.

[Andy]

Yeah, I mean, it was great. And also I was texting around and kind of just getting the temp check. Also like Australia basically getting free marketing for the tournament through this thing for three months going in. Not like they need it anymore there because it dominates everything, but it was just great. You see the trade off with these weeks before. Obviously the US Open went the route of the mixed doubles, which I was for, you know, creating interest in. This week before is a win for the players. It raises their profiles, Right. They don't have to do anything, but they're on TV all night and they get to show a nice version of themselves. They're laughing, joking, like it would feel like All Star weekend. Right. It's not often you look over and you see Zverev cutting it up with, you know, someone who won their club tournament. Yeah, like, it's great. Yeah, I thought it was, I thought it was a home run. What's the, what's the, how's it been perceived on there? JW 12 out of 10.

[John (JW)]

I mean, people are literally like, look, looking at the draws of the one point slam. I mean, I think another time there's an interesting conversation about sort of sample size and hey, you only get one serve and it sort of that the tactics are really interesting. It did not surprise me that a player we'd never heard of won. I do think it's interesting. You know, it's sort of like your serve, Roland Garros.

[Andy]

Right.

[John (JW)]

I mean, these are three week events now and we talked a lot about the, the US Open and the mixed double success. This is a much different angle of attack, but the players are here. I mean, the dirty secret too is money's changing hands. The players are making some, you know, they're not showing up for nothing. And it's a big hit. It's a big marketing hit. There are fans on the grounds, there are fans buying T shirts. It's a win all the way around. And now it's going to be interesting to see what the other two majors are going to do to capitalize on this third week.

[Andy]

Yeah, it's interesting too, because the player ask is low and people are mad, like, oh, you're paying the players like, well, yeah, these are the biggest stars on earth. Like, their time is worth something.

[John (JW)]

They should be paid.

[Andy]

Like, they're taking. Like they want to. They want to go sit around a stadium for four hours the week before. They are going to have to be in that stadium for four hours like they want.

[Mike]

They don't play the super bowl for free.

[Andy]

That's why you're the best.

[Mike]

I know.

[Andy]

Anyways, I thought it was a 10 out of 10. I don't see why they can't rinse and repeat. This idea seems more easily repeatable than. Than maybe the mixed. You're not taking up two nights. You're taking up one night.

[John (JW)]

Well, why is it an either or? I mean, why doesn't the U.S. because.

[Andy]

You'Re not going to if you're a top tier. Because if you're the top play. I actually talked to our friend about this yesterday. It's going to be tough to ask the top players for three nights, potentially during that. The week before the U.S. open. But I don't. I mean, the way it worked is this does. I don't know that if you would have said, okay, well, it doesn't totally matter the most if it's tennis star power. Does it have to be the top players? If someone has to win one point against Johnny Mac, that's great. That's just as entertaining. Like, the choke factor is still there. Like, how often do you. Can you have an event where you're watching someone choke their ass off and it's all in good fun, there's not like a tragic element to it? Yeah, it's fantastic.

[John (JW)]

Did you.

[Andy]

It's amazing.

[John (JW)]

Did you think all about how would you have played that? I mean, just, you know, whatever, we're.

[Andy]

Here for a draw show. We don't have to go all the.

[John (JW)]

Way down the rabbit hole. But did you think at all about how you would have strategically played this?

[Andy]

I was talking to Kim about it on a text. Kim Kleister's watch Love all yesterday on a text. And I was like, you'd be fine because you can strike the ball. Like, she could strike the ball straight out of the nap. Like, no problem. Wake up, go. She'd hit the center of the racket. I'd be going full Push Chipper Magoo just to the middle of the court. I'd be betting on someone else's chokey choke. That's what I'd be doing. I'd be shoving.

[Mike]

You know what I've loved about it, though?

[John (JW)]

Server return.

[Andy]

Oh, depends. Depends on who I'm playing.

[John (JW)]

I mean, everyone here picked. I mean, they were all. Pretty much everybody chose to return.

[Andy]

I wasn't, like, for how big I served. I wasn't. I didn't double fault hardly at all. Like, I could go big and getting up cold and hitting a serve. Like, I get more nervous trying to make a serve in these exhibitions than I ever thought about playing a match.

[Mike]

Well, when you asked about the server return, I think they played paper, rock, scissors.

[Andy]

Rock, paper, scissors. Which is great, by the way. Side note. Cause we're gonna have to get to the draw at some point. When did it become paper, rock, scissors and not rock, paper, scissors?

[Mike]

I'm from Ohio.

[Andy]

We do.

[Mike]

I'm from Ohio.

[John (JW)]

Rebrand. Rebrand.

[Andy]

Yeah. I feel like. I feel like we're solving a problem that doesn't exist.

[Mike]

Paper, scissors. Paper, rock, scissors.

[Andy]

Speaking of solving problems. Speaking of solving problems that don't exist in our resident hall monitor producer, Mike, we have new point totals that I don't know about.

[Mike]

Well, no, you were complaining about, like, it needs to have some type of point system. So then there can be. I prefer the vacation.

[Andy]

I prefer the term feedback.

[Mike]

Feedback.

[Andy]

Yeah.

[Mike]

Yeah. I don't know. Brooke calls it complaining also, but I don't. So. So me, techie Sean, sent me vows to you.

[Andy]

I think we're fine.

[Mike]

Me, techie, Sean, bracket, Baron, put our great minds together and we thought of.

[Andy]

A great, great tennis minds.

[Mike]

Yeah, great. No, these are just general sports minds.

[Andy]

Okay? Great sports minds. No, not tennis. We're actually great at all of it.

[Mike]

All right, so you guys can play alongside with us. Go to serve.bracket, dot tennis. Or go to our website, servepodcast.com and find the link and you can sign up and you can pick against Andy, John, Kim and Blair. And we'll also throw some brackets in there from the. From the serve team. There are rules on the website, so click the rules, take a look at it. But here's what it is for you. All right, so round one is worth 10 points per correct pick. Round 220, round 330. Round 440. Quarterfinals 60. Semifinals 80. Final is worth 100 points.

[Andy]

Okay, good. So far, so good.

[John (JW)]

All right.

[Mike]

But there's two bonus scoring opportunities.

[Andy]

Okay, Here. Here it comes. We got to Keep people engaged online till the end. Let's keep the Hail Mary in play first. Is that what's coming?

[Mike]

Yeah, sure. Something.

[Andy]

Yeah.

[Mike]

First is the unseated upset bonus. If you correctly pick an unseated player to beat a seated player, that match is worth double points. For example, in round two, a correct pick is normally worth 20 points. But if you pick an unseated player to beat a seated player in round two, that pick will be worth 40 points instead.

[Andy]

Okay, so what am I doing here? Am I trying to gamble on points or am I trying to pick everyone correctly?

[Mike]

That's up to you to decide. I don't care what you do.

[John (JW)]

Don't you think.

[Andy]

Pick.

[John (JW)]

Pick correctly and we'll work on the assumption the scoring system is now going to reward.

[Mike]

We studied.

[John (JW)]

We don't.

[Mike]

We studied plenty of brackets for hours and hours and hours, and we came right. It was many hours. Didn't many hours. It was wonderful. You said, how do we keep people.

[Andy]

Engaged until the end and make sure everyone has a chance?

[Mike]

Second. Second, other bonus point opportunity shot.

[Andy]

Cutting up because he knows that's what he's got to go.

[Mike]

Second is the seed gap bonus. All right, so the seed gap bonus. And this. This plays really well into the quarterfinal, semifinals, finals. Because really, I think. I think in the US Open, there was only one unseeded player. So then it was a seed gap. Seed gap bonus. If you correctly pick a lower seed to beat a higher seed, you get a bonus equal to the difference of their seeds. So if the 20 seed beats the 10 seed, you'd get a 10 point bonus on top of that. So, like, this is so, like. So, like, if a number seven seed beats the number three seed, it's not much. It's four points. But that might make the difference when you come down to it because a lot of those points totals were really. Were really close.

[Andy]

All right, so there you go.

[Mike]

That's it.

[Andy]

Net. Net. Way better that it's weighted. We can't have like we. We were with the US Open final the same as a first round. That was dumb. That was one of my complaints. Slash feedback. The.

[Mike]

The.

[Andy]

The seed thing. Okay, whatever. I mean, it's fun. I get it.

[Mike]

Yeah. And maybe we'll just go with that in the future. I don't know.

[Andy]

I got it. I don't know. We're crazy.

[Mike]

I don't know.

[John (JW)]

I don't know.

[Andy]

Let's run it past the serve board. What do you think?

[Mike]

Oh, approved.

[Andy]

Okay, good.

[John (JW)]

Unanimous.

[Andy]

All right, what are we doing? Women's or Men's draw first.

[Mike]

What do you think jw? Women's.

[John (JW)]

What do you.

[Andy]

Ladies first.

[John (JW)]

Yeah, can I just. I mean I, I hope Craig Tylee comes, selfishly comes to the usta. It would be like John Harbaugh to the Giants after a lengthy tenure. If we could get him to do a one page PDF of these draws. That would be awesome because we are really struggling to get all these in one. I'm going on a website now. A website. Let's start with women.

[Andy]

I'll tell you two of my. Two of my draws.

[John (JW)]

There's no PDF.

[Andy]

One, I'm going to preface this with JW is one of the smartest people I know. And two, one of my favorite things to see through this like zoom camera when he's is trying to sign on to his computer and then trying to look at something on his computer. My two favorite things. Shit fire.

[John (JW)]

This is what we're, this is what we're up against here when there's no printable PDF. Hey, wait, wait, wait, wait. Can I say something real quick? I came across a name, just real quick, 30 second riff. This totally random Philip Tetlock who is not in the draw. Who is Philip Tetlock? He is a social psychologist. I just came across this. Who has a theory that the more expertise you have at something, the worst you are at predicting. You get lost in your own head. I throw this out to say that these shows are fun. We're trying to prognosticate, we're trying to preview. It's great. If Andy's pick loses in the first round, that does not mean he's a moron and should surrender. The podcast reigns. Let's have fun with this for that reason.

[Andy]

Anyways, everything we say, plenty of other.

[John (JW)]

News, everything we do, missing picks gets us in more trouble and gets more bile online than. How in the world could you have picked Sebastian Korda? You should quit your job right now. Let's just everyone have fun. Everyone keep this in perspective. Philip Tetlock.

[Andy]

Or put up your own money against me. I'll take, I'll take heads up bets.

[Mike]

I'm just glad you said that, John, because every time they write that, I am like, God, should I quit?

[Andy]

Should I quit with what?

[Mike]

Anytime anybody's like, Mike, you suck. Quit your job. Oh, great.

[John (JW)]

I, I had Coco winning and she didn't win.

[Andy]

This is amazing how, because there's some things that I just completely miss from being offline and I like someone will go down and I'll know that it's out there somewhere. In the ether. Someone's going full keyboard warrior on something, but I don't see it.

[Mike]

You don't see it? Yeah.

[Andy]

Save your shit. You're wasting breath. So we're just going to suck and you can't. You can't even write to me. Here we go. All right, women first.

[Mike]

Let's go.

[Andy]

All right, top quarter. I mean, it's going to be tough to go against Saba Lenka. I'll just say that I like Saba Pavlychenkova, Potipova, Radicanu. I like Saba Patapova. Third round, Saba to the fourth round. I like Imboko. I like the Japanese qualifier Sakatsumi. I hope otherwise. Write to John on Twitter. Umboko, Tolson, Sabalenka, Umboko. I like Saba getting through that quarter. JW similar.

[John (JW)]

I don't know why you picked against Mike Hayden's Cincinnati zone, Katie McNally.

[Andy]

Oh, I'll tell you. I'll tell you. No problem. When a qualifier, generally, you're going to see this over and over on my picks, right? If it's like a. Even if someone's ranked higher 70, 80, 90 in the world, I'm not sure where McNally is right at this moment. I value someone going through the qualifying tournament so much. Getting on site, getting in the conditions, winning three matches. And if they're again, I mean guy People, men, women, 150 in the world can play their asses off. So generally it's. I'm not playing favorites. I think Katie McNally is awesome. I just value a qualifier. A qualifier in a pick a match. I give like a 10% edge to someone who's already been on site playing matches for a week.

[John (JW)]

Good. Good answer. I have. I have virtually the exact same picks. I'll take Katie McNally. You know what? I'll take Kuda Matova too. Going against your qualifier theory, though, I like it. And yeah, I think we're so I have Sabalenka beating, I think Towson over and Boko.

[Andy]

You have. You have Towson over and Boco. Okay. I Iboco. I thought she looked great against Maddie Keys. I think she's going to be top 10 before we look twice. She's great big match player. Saved a match point last week against Kalinskaya and beats Maddie the next day. Doesn't seem like she's battling health anymore, like she was after her big win in Canada. And also I just find it really hard to pick against Sabalenka against anyone right now. So we'll go to the second quarter. I have Alexandrova through to the third round. I have Kostiuk in the third round. I'm taking Kostiak to the fourth round. I'm taking Kostiak to the quarterfinals over Paolini in the fourth round. Actually, sorry. I'm going to take her over. Sorry.

[John (JW)]

Timeout.

[Andy]

Kostic in the. Kostia in the quarters. I'm taking Jovic to the fourth round. I think she is a badass. She's not like the tallest person ever, but I think she is a star of the future. Eva Jovic. I have fresh second round. Paolini. Palini. Jovic. Jovic. I'm actually going to panic and switch it right now. I'm taking Jovic to the quarters.

[John (JW)]

Who.

[Andy]

Yeah, that happened.

[John (JW)]

Here we are.

[Mike]

We get bonus points, baby.

[John (JW)]

Yeah. Look at that. Yeah. I'm. Seriously, there's too much math. Elizabeth, the wild card, Hannah Manlikova's daughter is.

[Andy]

That's cool.

[John (JW)]

Interesting factory. Kashuk looked great last week. Yeah. I have Kostic to the fourth round. Yeah.

[Andy]

Against Palini.

[John (JW)]

I know. Very different from you against Paolini. I'll take. Yeah. I have Sabalenka to beat Paolini.

[Andy]

Okay.

[John (JW)]

Other matches I just did. Jovic is great, and if the tallest person in the world did play tennis, I would like to see that. But you're right. She's not the tallest person in the world.

[Andy]

Jovic is really good, and she has this kind of, like, quiet intensity. She's not intense for the sake of wanting to show people that she's intense. Does that make sense?

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

For 18 years old. I've been watching her the last couple weeks. She's. She's really good. She's going to be. She's going to be a top 10 player like she. She will be.

[John (JW)]

She's really good defending. Nothing for the next. I mean, she's. She's seated now. Look at what she's defending for the next four or five months.

[Andy]

Yeah. It's like the school of Umoko.

[Mike]

Oh, wow.

[Andy]

But Umoko won a bunch of minor league events. But Jovic is legit. Legit, legit, legit. Good. I have Saba going through semis. Yeah, I assume John does, too, otherwise.

[John (JW)]

I do.

[Andy]

He probably would have said something. Coco, I'd love to choose Venus. I'm not going to. Danilovich. That, like, weird lefty kick serve is not something you see in practice that often. It's such an outlier if you haven't played a ton of tennis. I would love nothing more to Be wrong and see a Coco Venus second round.

[Mike]

You're an espn.

[John (JW)]

Yeah.

[Andy]

You think that'd be unbelievable. I just don't see it. Danilovich is awkward. Like, she play strange. I mean, I don't think Coco has, like, the easiest draw.

[Mike]

When you say. When you say awkward, you just mean it's a lot of lefties. Unconventional.

[Andy]

The arc of her second serve is. Is probably more like a guy's serve where it has that, like, kind of up and then down, like an actual, like, kick serve, as opposed to running it in, slider on the body. She actually has a really good record against, like, a Danielle Collins. I know she can get it out of the zone. I don't know if it'll bother Coco as much because Coco's not scared to, like, let the pace die out, let the kick die out and go way back on return. But she's an awkward matchup because she hits this loopy forehand and this kind of big, loopy, sweeping lefty serve. So just a tough matchup. I have Vondrozova through to the third round, and then I have Coco through to the fourth round. Coco's got a rough draw, though. Danilovich is kind of strange to play. Von Droseva is strange to play. If you've listened to our boozes.

[John (JW)]

Monero.

[Mike]

Boozes.

[John (JW)]

Monero beat her.

[Andy]

Yes.

[John (JW)]

In the last. And the third set was love. So there's someone. So there's someone in her pocket of the draw who served her a bagel in the last 10 days, and then.

[Andy]

She turned into Coco after that match.

[John (JW)]

Yeah, exactly.

[Andy]

At the United Cup.

[John (JW)]

Right.

[Andy]

We said last week during the Holger show, jw, that like, the whole point of going United cup is basically to have that insurance policy of a bad match, and you still get three or four matches like that. What Coco did there is exactly why you play that tournament. Right. Average, terrible first round, and then you actually play well. Bdgo. Like, you find your form during that week in match conditions. If you've listened to this show before, you know that I just can't quit. Move A. I have Mujava Yala. I have. All right, here we go. Let's go to you. You ready for your upset Special. You ready for bonus points? High porn. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I have Ann Lee. I have Magdalenette beating Emma Navarro first round. I have Lynette going to the third round. I have Mukova going to the fourth round. And I have Coco getting through.

[Mike]

Whoa.

[John (JW)]

Wow. Boom.

[Andy]

I hope I'm. I hope I'm wrong.

[Mike]

Do you Have Emma lose.

[John (JW)]

Emma Navarro with new.

[Mike]

New.

[John (JW)]

New attire to watch for. I don't. I think Emma Navarro is such a good competitor. Obviously. Bit of a. Bit of a sophomore slump year, but I had. I had Navarro getting through. Yeah.

[Andy]

I'm not mad at you, honestly. This is a.

[John (JW)]

This is.

[Andy]

This is a new real pick. This is a seed. I don't see her playing well enough to get through to like the fourth round quarters. Let's take a shot.

[Mike]

Take the flyer.

[Andy]

Let's take a flyer.

[John (JW)]

Take a shot.

[Andy]

Fuck it. We're already here.

[John (JW)]

I'm leaving tomorrow. Take it.

[Andy]

Okay, so you have. Who do you have playing coco in the fourth round? J.W.

[John (JW)]

Mujava.

[Andy]

Okay. And then Coco through.

[John (JW)]

Yeah.

[Andy]

All right, let's go down to the next quarter. I have Svitolina through to the fourth round over Schneider in the third round.

[John (JW)]

I have. I'll take one of those upset picks for a non seed.

[Andy]

Yeah, I know who you're gonna go.

[John (JW)]

I know it D. Schneider. Schneider's a little up and down and. And it's Vitalina's beans. Vitalina look great to start the year.

[Andy]

Won the title in Auckland.

[John (JW)]

I won the title in Auckland. I'll have. I'll make that one of my unseated.

[Andy]

Yeah.

[John (JW)]

To beat seed upsets.

[Andy]

I think I would have done that. Schneider just beat Navarro and is still hanging around in Adelaide. Playing pretty well. I think it's Adelaide, one of the tour events I was watching today. So she's kind of one where. When she gets it going a little bit. But I like Svitolina and this one I don't have finished yet and I don't know how to. Gosh. This one rough. This next little section. Yastremska. I go qualifier over, which I don't want to do. I hope Isla has a great tournament in her home country. Hope I'm wrong. We'll see. I have. Qualifier. I don't even know how to say the name. Starro DO Betzva.

[John (JW)]

Former. Former. Former college player.

[Andy]

Very cool.

[John (JW)]

From Ukraine, no less. You have her beating Tom Janovic.

[Andy]

I do. I have her going to the third round. I have soccer winning her first match and then it's. I mean, as far as rough draws go. Andreva Vekic to play soccer.

[John (JW)]

II.

[Andy]

I.

[John (JW)]

I'm not going to potential.

[Andy]

I'm going to go and drave it to the fourth round, but I'm going to take Svitolina to the quarter just because I think Andreva's more likely to stumble along the way. What about you, jw?

[John (JW)]

That's exactly what I had. All right. I thought. Okay, I thought. I thought I could pick up some points on you there.

[Andy]

I see Evan Drava over soccer. I thought someone was going to take that one. Socrates looked really good early this season. She's playing, playing much, much better. Doesn't look as stressed on the court. Is that okay to say? All right, next one. I have Jess Pagula in her quarter going through to the fourth round. I have McCartney Kessler, second round, Jessica Gula over her. I have Bedoza going through the third round. I mean, she's in a nice little section there. The bottom, Layla Fernandez. I'm going Sloan Stevens to the third round.

[Mike]

Right.

[John (JW)]

Look at that. Look at that first round match.

[Andy]

I know. Sloan Stevens against former number one. I know this is crazy.

[John (JW)]

This could have been like Sloan qualified. That's your qualifying theory?

[Andy]

That's what I like. That's why I like some matches winning, some matches upset. Special Mike's new rules.

[Mike]

It's the committee's rules.

[Andy]

Sloan. Yeah. Committee of one. Sloan through to the third round. I have Matty keys to the fourth round. I think Jess takes Matty out in the fourth round. I think it's been a long year. I think there's a lot of expectations going in. Maddie played fine. Adelaide lost to him Boco, but doesn't have that run that she had last year. As far as that form going in, who do you have through in that section? The Jess Pula, matty key section, JW.

[John (JW)]

I think McCartney Kessler has a real chance of beating Pula, but I couldn't quite pull the trigger. Ella Seidel was a name. Keep in this Ella Seidel, we saw her in Cincinnati. She's really talented young player. But Dosa had some nice results here. We don't know 100% about her health. I like, keep an eye on Sloan. I mean, you know, she's playing Pliskova, the former number one player, so that's not good for her for qualifying. But then the draw did her no favors. On the other hand, you know, these are. Neither of these two players are at their peak.

[Andy]

I.

[John (JW)]

And I'm. I'm mad. He's a big question mark. I mean, I think what she. I think she won one match post Cincinnati. Is that right? I. She's not in the form she was last year. She's still the defending champion, though. I'll take. I'll take Maddie to get through to the quarters.

[Andy]

Yeah, those bonus points, you know, was a three pointer, keys over.

[John (JW)]

I'm thinking in terms of bonuses. Exactly.

[Andy]

I know, I know. One thing I want to do is I definitely want to do more math when I'm.

[John (JW)]

When I'm looking my understanding, there would be no math.

[Andy]

That's what I said in high school when I turned pro. All right, next section. I'll save you the drama. I have Anna Samova through to the quarters. I have Anna Samova through to the semis. I have Noskova going through to the fourth round. Ostapenko always can blow up a section. I have Sophia Kenan, former champion in Australia, which I don't think gets mentioned nearly enough, going through to the third round. Jw.

[Mike]

Whoa.

[Andy]

Are you Anisimova or are you someone else? Through this section, I'm Anisimova.

[John (JW)]

Ostapenko has lost, I believe, six straight matches as we speak, which means that she's due to.

[Andy]

She's due to make a run and beat Vatek.

[John (JW)]

I was going to say either that.

[Andy]

Is a pick, either that's a gimme.

[John (JW)]

Seed unseed, or she's going to week two. I think Peyton Stearns beats Kenan. That's another unseeded seed. And yeah, I mean, I think Anisimova is looking like she could make her third straight. I'm not prepared to do it, but yeah, Anisimova would be my pick in that pocket.

[Andy]

Next section. Oof. If you know I can't quit Muchova, you know I can't. Can't quit Rybakina either. We all know this. We know this didn't do. Didn't. It didn't help the US Open, I gotta be honest. Didn't. Didn't. That wasn't. It wasn't great. I have Rabbakina through the rough. One for me was, I assume you have Robbakkina Benchich in the fourth round.

[John (JW)]

Jw Exactly.

[Andy]

And who do you have winning that.

[John (JW)]

Spoiler? Let's say Rebakina.

[Andy]

I have Rebakina putting all my Rubbach.

[John (JW)]

In a chips on the table. Yeah, Bench, it's been terrible. I mean, Benjits is also. She's almost won a million dollars already this year. That United cup, apart from being good match play and guaranteed match remunerative, Benich is now a top 10 player. We've talked about where she was at.

[Andy]

This time last year. Just one second, Jerry. Sorry to interrupt. What does remunative mean? Mike, can you Google that? Can you Google that?

[John (JW)]

Oh, stop.

[Andy]

They pay a lot of money.

[John (JW)]

Edit that out.

[Mike]

Financially rewarding, lucrative.

[John (JW)]

They pay a lot of warning.

[Andy]

That's what I Thought, rewarding, context clues.

[John (JW)]

A million dollars. All right, keep going.

[Andy]

All right, so we have rebakking it through to the quarters. I have Mertens through to the third round against Bench Itch. Any upset specials there? I have my joint through to the third round. I have my. I'm going. My furtive Ra. Linda. Not. I know there are some sisters. I butchered that name. But here we are qualifier. I went qualifier special over Lulu soon, and then I've joined to the third round. Any. Any. Anything different there, jw?

[John (JW)]

No. My. My joint. The highest Australian woman and is now seated teenager. Good for her. No, I have exact.

[Andy]

It is weird to see Kazakhena not seated. That's Australian and, well, Australian. I'm happy about that. The not seated part, I don't know that she'd be thrilled about, but I don't see her having enough ammo. I think in most cases over the last five years, that would have been an upset. Special. I just think bench is in really, really, really good form. Osaka, we've seen enough. Are we going to put her through to the fourth round? Jw?

[John (JW)]

Yeah. Fourth round and then not. I just do. The last tournament she won, if we're not counting a 125. The last tournament she won is this one. Whenever that was five years ago.

[Andy]

She has some crazy stuff.

[John (JW)]

Wacky career.

[Andy]

Yeah. Yeah, crazy. I have Kellen sky, though. Go ahead.

[John (JW)]

Do you like Evil Evelyn to beat Osaka?

[Andy]

I don't know. I have Osaka through to the fourth round. You do?

[John (JW)]

Yeah. I threw a wild card on that one. Ooh.

[Andy]

I have Osaka. Iga. I have iga. Rabakina. I'm gonna do it again. I'm gonna do it again.

[Mike]

Wait real quick before we go through this. I'm just looking through your bracket because I've been picking. Who do you have playing? And a samova in the round of 16.

[Andy]

No.

[Mike]

No.

[Andy]

Yeah. Yes. Are we.

[John (JW)]

Are we worried about IGA's physical and therefore mental state?

[Andy]

I mean, she hasn't looked great at it. She looked better to start last year. I mean, I. I don't. What's she battling? What do you. What are you hearing down there, jw?

[John (JW)]

That she's. She's a. I don't remember what the injury is.

[Andy]

She.

[John (JW)]

She's. She's a little dinged up. She's cut practices short and she's not in great spirits.

[Andy]

Yeah, I. I have Rebakka. I have Rebakka through to the. The semifinals there. So let's. Let's do a reset and let's get to the the quarterfinals. Mike, who do we have in the quarters?

[Mike]

You have Sabalenka, Jovic, Golf, Svitolina, Pegula, Anisimova, Rybakina, IGA Pegula.

[Andy]

What? Anisomova and Smova. Rybakina.

[Mike]

And then you. And then semis. You have who between Goff and Svitolina. Who do you got facing Sabalenka?

[Andy]

I have Golf. I have Sabalenka in the final. I have. Gosh, I'm having a hard time with this. Ana Simova, robakan1jw. You want to take first crack at that one?

[John (JW)]

I have Rabbakina to win the tournament.

[Andy]

All right, well, that settles it. I'll go Anna Samova in the final. And I'm gonna go. I'm gonna take a flyer here and take Sabalenka to win on the Australian Open.

[Mike]

No way.

[Andy]

Yeah. Crazy.

[Mike]

No way.

[John (JW)]

Yeah, she's on a one match losing streak here. I'll have you.

[Mike]

Yes.

[Andy]

Yeah. John, John, who do you have. Who do you have Rybakina playing in the final?

[John (JW)]

Sabalenka. Are we giving Sabalenka enough credit, by the way? I'm just doing the math in my head. I mean, she's won 20 of her last 21 matches here. The one she lost was this classic to Maddie and now she's the number one. I mean, she's going for three and four years and in the fourth year she made the final.

[Andy]

Yeah, I mean, I think we have. I think we've actually made a point to take time in episodes when we are talking about her to actually celebrate her success and not just kind of roll through it, not take it for granted. I think she wins it again. And you think we're bacchana playing the.

[John (JW)]

Hot hand after Riyadh and I think she creates a lot of matchup problems and I also, I don't know, I mean, the weather app on your phone is hardly a red check, but. But it does not look like we are in for, you know, hallucinating and seeing Snoopy on the court as happened maybe 10 years ago. I mean, I don't think players shoes are going to be sticking to the court and I think, I think that will help Rebakkin as well.

[Andy]

Well, that's too bad. We won't get to hear producer Mike say wet bulb every 12 seconds. Are we gonna break or are we going to.

[Mike]

Let's take a little break before we get into the men's.

[Andy]

Let's do it. All right. Welcome back to served. It's the draw show for the 2026 Aussie Open, and it's like watching a car crash.

[Mike]

It's not that bad. We'll see. We'll see.

[Andy]

Some of them have been bad, Some.

[Mike]

Of them have been horrible.

[Andy]

Some of them have been really bad.

[Mike]

Yeah. And that's why we have a new scoring system.

[Andy]

Doesn't change my bad picks, but it.

[Mike]

Might make it a little less bad. Great.

[Andy]

All right, let's get into the top section, the old numero Uno. Chucky Alcaraz. I have, obviously, him going through to the quarterfinals. I have American Zweider winning his first round. I have Seb Korder winning his first round. I have Mutet winning his first round. I have the Chuckster beating. Depending on if you're in Paris or Ohio. Chuckster. I have beating Tommy Paul in the fourth round. Jw.

[John (JW)]

Oh, look. Quick word about Alcaraz, which is no matter what he does, it will be seen through the prism of his coaching shakeup. I think we need some more data. First of all, do you remember when Juan Carlos Ferreira missed this event? I think it was two years ago when he had knee surgery. So it's not even the first time he's been in Australia without a coach. It's interesting, it's a story. We're all following it. But I would encourage people to let this play out before we decide that either Juan Carlos Ferrero was expendable or this was a catastrophic career move. I'm not sure one tournament is going to tell us what we need here.

[Andy]

Yeah. And also, it's not expend. There's no guarantee that even if it works. And listen, Carlos is going to win more Slams, right? He's going to end up winning more Slams. That doesn't change the job that Ferrero did from when he was 15 on. Like, I could jump on Carlos's bag and do I get credit if he wins the French Open? I haven't done shit. Like, he's still Carlos. Like, Ferrero did the hard yards, he did all the hard work. I mean, just level set real quick. And also, like, if you're Alcaraz, like, you know that it's going to be dissected. You know that there's this added kind of shadow layer of pressure where you don't want to lose, because then you know what that narrative is going to be? Fairly or unfairly? Probably fairly, you know, but does that change the fact that I think he's going to go to the semis at least, and we'll leave that? No, he's a generational talent. Like he's one of the most talented guys I've ever seen with a racket. He's a wizard. Fastest guy alive and what else?

[John (JW)]

Tallest man alive. No, let us note, no tune up events for either of the top two players though. They've had exhibitions and hit arounds. Zack Spider, just for a player to cheer for and someone who's been through a lot recently, nice to see him qualify. And if he can play, you know, Carlos Alcaraz in the second round of a major, that would be a career moment for him. I've cooled on Sebastian Korda, but I do think he will make it to the third round. I think he can just simply overpower Mute Mutet, who plays an Aussie in the first round. Tommy Paul, I saw yesterday played. It was on TV on the treadmill.

[Andy]

In full disclosure, he beat Orelka and then Vukic. Yep.

[John (JW)]

Yeah, yeah. Tommy Paul looks like he's back to playing Tommy Paul tennis, which is, which is nice to see. And Davidovich Fokina, who we've talked about him before, has not won a tournament but is in the top 15. I think Tommy Paul gets through him. And if Tommy Paul can stay healthy, I have Tommy Paul Alcaraz. So you have the same.

[Andy]

I have Tommy Paul and Alcaraz. Yep. I have a poker through. He's my exception to the qualifier rule. Potential rematch the match you just talked about Tommy Paul and Vukic, second round if you want, just if you are down under and you want to see some drama and someone just talking insane amounts of shit, go watch Mutet play the local Aussie school Kate in the first round because the Aussies will be all over Mutet and he will not have it in his body to ignore them and he will be blowing kisses, giving people the finger. So if you just want like, okay, like we've, we've seen some matches but we'd like to see just like wwe, go to that match and weigh in however you want. It will get a reaction.

[Mike]

Sean will be tuning in.

[John (JW)]

Yeah, underarm serves. Remember that's a queen or drop shot.

[Andy]

You'll get a warning for saying something to a crowd. Ozz, he'll do. It's. It's not often subtle with, with Mutet, I'll tell you that. But a really, really good player seated top 32. It's kind of had this nice run a little bit later on in his career, which is props for that. I have Davidovich Fokina, third round tp in the fourth round I have Alcaraz in the quarters. Then we go down below. I know a lot of people are going upset, special here. I am not. I take Bublek over Brooksby.

[Mike]

Oh, man.

[John (JW)]

Come on, jw.

[Andy]

What are you doing?

[Mike]

Do you remember?

[John (JW)]

I'm going upstairs. So Bublek gets to the quarters of Rongyars.

[Andy]

Don't just bury the lead there.

[John (JW)]

Come on, come on.

[Andy]

Stay with your chest.

[John (JW)]

I'm giving you some historical background here.

[Andy]

Holland. Then he lost first round quarters of grass.

[John (JW)]

He goes in quarters of clay, quarters of Rongeros, goes to grass, beats sinner on grass. And this is everybody's hot pick to win Wimbledon. And he loses in round one.

[Andy]

No one picked him to win Wimbledon. No one picked him to win Wimbledon.

[John (JW)]

Go back and look at contender list of Wimbledon.

[Andy]

Shame and shame.

[John (JW)]

I don't know. He was a.

[Andy]

No, it's a contender.

[John (JW)]

He was a hot pick at Wimbledon.

[Andy]

He was a hot pick. It's different.

[John (JW)]

I think Brooksby frustrates him and gets in his head and slow balls him. And I think Bublick gets all sorts of credit. I mean, anyone with his. Not just his sort of his results, but his whole mode of being who enters the top 10 is something we ought to. We always talk about consistency, right? Oh, he's consistent from the baseline. His results are consistent. This is the opposite. And it's great fun to watch, but I think, I mean, yeah, whatever. Now Bublog's going to win 3, 3, 3. And we're all going to look silly. I think Jensen Brooksby's got a real chance of blowing up this little pocket of the draw here.

[Andy]

I just think if you. If Bublik plays someone where he's getting enough, look at return enough looks at returns, he's going to have a game where he rips two winners, has a drop shot like. And also the confuse and conquer method for Brooksby, like Bublik does that too. Right. It's not as if Brooksby's immune to that. Immune to that style of play just because he uses it.

[John (JW)]

Two very different approaches to creating chaos.

[Mike]

Yeah. Didn't Holger talk about playing Bublek? He's like, if you play like him, it kind of like confuses him a little bit.

[Andy]

So we'll see how that one go anyway. That's going to be a popcorn, though. Two very awkward players. They're both guys that when that draw comes out, you go look around for specific types of players to practice against and there's few and far between.

[Mike]

Oh, that's cool.

[Andy]

Right? Like you would go source that type of player. And there aren't many of them. You would have, like, two guys. Imagine this is what. But this is what happens is a good context. Like, I imagine, like, my mind goes back to like, Stefanke or bg. You draw someone and they're looking for one of four lefties in the draw. Like, running around the calling someone, like, because you want to get that practice match up. It's like, you know, draw comes out and you would just see BG or Larry just run out the door and start trying to organize the next three days of practice for. For your first round. So little. Little inside baseball there. Fuchsiavich. Second round. I have Bublek. I have Bublek through to the fourth round. How far are you. You taking Brooksby there? JW to the third to lose to Kaboli. Okay, so you have Kaboli in the fourth round. You know, I was looking at this matchup, Kitchmanovich and Echeverri, and it was like, that would have been really intriguing, like three years ago. And they've each kind of faded a little bit to where, you know, I think three years ago, the narrative would have been, wow, who's going to win this one? This really. It's a great matchup. But now it's like, well, who's going to win this one? You know, they've kind of both maybe faded a little bit, but still dangerous customers. I have Bublek fourth round down below.

[Mike]

But you didn't say who you think is going to win that match. You just said.

[Andy]

Which one?

[Mike]

The one you just said.

[Andy]

Buble and Demon.

[Mike]

No, no, Echeverrion.

[Andy]

Oh, sorry. I took Catchmanovic.

[Mike]

Okay.

[Andy]

I took catch on. Excuse me. You're right. I have Tiafo into the third round over Kubler. I have Komisana over the American Patrick Kipson, who won the wild card through the exchange. Tiafo. And I have Demon. Demon. Tough one. Baratini. You don't. If he catches a heater on serve is just. That's a tough. Like, it's a tough matchup for Demon. It's a really tough matchup for Baratini. Right. Like, so that the inverse is. I'm just not going to. Wouldn't surprise me. Shot out of a cannon. Baratini takes the first set or something. But I just. At home in Australia, I think Demon. I have Demon through to the quarterfinals. Who do you have in that quarter?

[John (JW)]

Yeah, Demon with a new. A new physical coach for Demon. Trying to put on some muscle. Yeah, I just. Aussies in Australia is A different proposition. You know what my pet theory on this is? It's great for the Jason Kublers, and then they're playing in front of their home fan and they've got 100 friends in the crowd. When you're at the level of Demon, it's a complication. But I do think he gets through and I think he beats Francis.

[Andy]

He did get to the quarters last year. He has made runs there. So I think that matters. I think where it gets tricky is if you're someone like Demon and you haven't gotten past the second round, the third round of your home slam, and then you squeeze a little tight. I think he's been so established for so long. I fully agree with what the point you just made. And I also think Demon's kind of seen it enough now. But obviously I've. I'm. I listen, Alcaraz, with, you know, my cat as his coach, I would still take through to the semis.

[John (JW)]

Right.

[Andy]

Because he's just that good.

[John (JW)]

Your cat's serving volley cat. Right? My cat, I think, changes tactics up.

[Andy]

A little bit, I think, on this show. My cat has coached Federer.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

I think my cat has coached Sabalenka.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

I think my. Oh, no, not Sabalenka. My cat is coach Serena.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

Definitely coach Serena to a bunch of Slams.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

And now my cat is coaching Alcaraz. I mean, there's your clip.

[Mike]

Can you imagine the energy, though? Alcaraz, Demon in the quarters? It's going to be ridiculous.

[John (JW)]

Yeah.

[Andy]

I mean, you just try to. That's one of those weird ones, though. It's like when I would play Roger here and I'd be pissed that more people were cheering for Roger.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

You know, Carlos kind of almost transcends nationality with the emotion he's able to create in fans. The energy would be fantastic. I still feel like 40% of the crowd would want to see Alcaraz do his thing.

[Mike]

So you were, like, here in the United States and having the same issue Coco was talking about in Australia.

[Andy]

So Coco's thing in Australia, like, got completely taken out of context. So Australia is like, you go to the grounds and you have the Serbians and the Croatians and, like, these factions of. Of fans. Right. That, you know, live there, you know, from other places. We just don't have that. Right. So United cup, you're not going to get a thousand Americans to go out. And that's what she was saying. She wasn't saying anything about the macro version of US Fandom. For her. She was saying in this one event, in this three day stretch, Poland gets more support. Chill. Everyone calm down.

[John (JW)]

That drives me. Save it for another time. That drives me crazy because it's so dumb. And if you listen to her in context, it made sense. And this has the impact of chilling what players say. You're creating bland players.

[Andy]

Correct.

[John (JW)]

When everything they say gets blown up and turned into a controversy. When there's nothing controversial. And by the way, let's move on.

[Andy]

She's absolutely like. Like she is. Most times she says anything 100% correct. Like you go down there and it's not as if you're playing an event and you get. Now different places, different like. But no, Australia, like you get more from other places and they're more interested in their tennis players because they don't get a million events every year.

[John (JW)]

Exactly. And also, I mean this, this is, this is a country of events. There are not a ton of US expats who are here waving flags. I mean this is a country of immigrant. Let's, let's move on.

[Andy]

Coco's right. Everyone else who had emotions about it is wrong. All right, top of the next quarter. I have Zverev through to the fourth round. I have Nori in the third round and that's just going to be a battle. That Nori Zverev match. Zverev is. He's kind of gotten to the point in. Oh, do you have, do you have something? Do you have an. Oh, no.

[John (JW)]

I thought the, the. I thought I heard the faint bell of the, of the upset alarm with hard serving Canadian gab. I don't think he wins. I picked Zverev, but I, but not for Zverev.

[Andy]

Diallo has not played well at the beginning of this year. He lost to he of doubles fame Vavasori last week, first round. So yes, normally I don't think he has found any form. And also Zverev, like think about what Diallo does really well. He's super tall, he's got a big kick. Kick doesn't work as well when someone is 6 foot 7. Right. That's going to go right into Zverev's pocket. Just on a matchup and based on like a recency bias. I like Zverev there, but Diallo is like a definitely like a future star. Zverev has now got to the point where like he can play average. Like he hasn't played well out of the gates this year and he just knows how to kind of pace himself through a slam and if you ignore him, then all of a sudden he's in the semis, right? Like that's, that's kind of what he does. Now I have him to the quarters. Second part of that little section, I have Surrender Low. I wanted to go upset special there with double Z. Jang couldn't do it. Zoomer beats my quality rule because my one exception to the quality rule, right? When someone qualifier comes in, they're playing someone who's, I don't know, bottom half ranked in the draw is when it's someone like Zoomer who's a physical animal is going to make that person go through pain for four hours, right? So when you see Liam Drexel from Canada, I don't think he's played a ton of slams playing all of a sudden 3 out of 5 sets and gets someone who literally just wants to drag you out and be there all day long. Tougher ask. I have Serendolo in the, in the third round. I have Rubleville through. I have Fariad Rublev. Rublev over, Surrender Low. Rublev to play Zverev through to the quarters. Do you have anyone besides Zverev in the quarters? J.W.

[John (JW)]

I do not. But I think this is a little trickier than, I mean, Banzai is the guy who beat Medvedev in two majors running, so Medvedev is happy not to see him as his first round opponent. I think Banzai Nori could be tricky. I like Serendolo a lot. Casso, a heavily tatted Frenchman who I think was a week, wasn't he a Week 2 player here last year or two years ago. This is kind of nothing crazy about this section, but I think there's some. This could be wild. I mean, there could be a lot of points for the sake of our game here. There could be a lot of points in the balance here. I guess I'm taking. I guess I'm taking Zverev to get through, but this is a pocket. I'm just warming up for my big pick.

[Andy]

But I think, I think your big pick is going to be the same as my big pick.

[John (JW)]

Rublev, one of two players in the main draw coached by a former Australian Open singles winner.

[Andy]

Oh, I know the other one in. I know the other one. Thomas Johansson just picked someone up.

[John (JW)]

Ah, very good, Very good.

[Andy]

That's right.

[John (JW)]

Beating Safin, right?

[Andy]

Didn't he beat Saffin? He beat Safin. You remember Safin's player box from that year?

[John (JW)]

Yeah.

[Mike]

Is that the famous. The amount of comments we got this week and then the past couple weeks about asking Saffin to come on the show for an Interview.

[Andy]

Saffin is.

[Mike]

We have to do it.

[Andy]

Saffin's a vibe. I hope he'd come on. Saffin and I did. Saffin and I did not get along early in our careers and now we're great. Like, when I see it, we're totally.

[John (JW)]

Fine.

[Andy]

Now we're great for another time.

[Mike]

We should do that one in person.

[Andy]

We hung out. We hung out and caught a buzz before his induction speech at the hall of Fame one year. And it was awesome.

[Mike]

It was awesome.

[Andy]

We were like parking lot below a hotel just shooting the shit. And I loved it. He's great. I would love to have Marat Saffin on. Endlessly entertaining. If only he was good looking.

[Mike]

Not cool at all. No.

[Andy]

If only he had some swag.

[Mike]

Sarcasm.

[Andy]

All right. Thank you for implying this.

[Mike]

I want to make sure that the Internet didn't take it out of control.

[Andy]

Fuck it. The Internet will do what it does. Saffin said some weird shit too. We're fine.

[John (JW)]

We're all good.

[Andy]

All right, I have Mehdi through to the quarters. I'm just going to bury. I'm just going to throw that out there now. Medi over De Jong. I have Hallis over to Below to Billo is struggling a little bit. Firley I have Morosian over Rinder Kanesh first round. And I have Morosian through to the third round. Boom.

[John (JW)]

Okay, Interesting picks.

[Andy]

So you don't have that jw.

[John (JW)]

I have Render nest playing up to his seating, losing to Medvedev. I have Medvedev in Shanghai.

[Andy]

This is like.

[John (JW)]

That's true. This. This man. This is like ucla, usc. I didn't. I didn't. Somehow I missed this match. Learner against. We're not there yet. All right, keep it. No, I have. I have Medvedev through.

[Andy]

Yeah, you can start there though.

[John (JW)]

Talk about learn. Are you.

[Andy]

Are you going learner?

[John (JW)]

I'm going learner. God, is he that all he does is win? I mean, the numbers he puts up. I wonder. Michael Chang, I suspect, will be here with him. That's an interesting first round match against a player I'm sure he's practiced with before.

[Andy]

Are you ready for this? Are you ready?

[John (JW)]

What do you got?

[Andy]

Boom.

[John (JW)]

That's your upset.

[Andy]

Boom.

[John (JW)]

Marcus Garon. What? What do you got?

[Andy]

Garrone semis in Hong Kong. Garrone still alive in Auckland. Garon, give me those bonus points. Garon through to the third round.

[John (JW)]

Wow. Boom.

[Andy]

Have you seen that guy's quads? Five sets ain't gonna matter to him.

[John (JW)]

That's a quad squad.

[Andy]

Yeah, quad squad.

[John (JW)]

Totally.

[Andy]

Guy's quads. I mean, there's no way he can buy off the rack shorts.

[Mike]

He's one and O over.

[Andy]

There's no chance.

[Mike]

He's one and O over dot Learner.

[Andy]

I'm just telling you he beat him in Madrid.

[Mike]

Just.

[Andy]

I. Listen, I. I hate making this call. It's just fun. I just want. I obviously just want an excuse to reference Garon squads. Yeah, like that's pretty much the only reason. And the bonus points that you're now just handing out like Mentos, like Pez dispenser.

[John (JW)]

If they handed out bonus points for qualifiers winning their first round match, you would either be. You'd either be like winning this event or disqualified by round two.

[Mike]

We actually discussed that.

[John (JW)]

But the committee, they said, I see Elias Emer.

[Andy]

Yeah, obviously have Emer because he's a qualifier.

[John (JW)]

That's one of these. Also vote for the stories. Right. I mean, it's nice. Nice to see him back and winning three matches.

[Andy]

Yeah. Let's see if the crowd can get Jordan Thompson through that first round. FAA through to Garon. I have FAA through to the round of 16. I have Medi through to the quarters. I have Medi in the semifinals.

[Mike]

Oh, my gosh.

[John (JW)]

Oh, wow.

[Andy]

I bet you do too after the ol. I guarantee you do. Say you don't.

[John (JW)]

I'm going to see you and raise you. But we can save that for later. I have Mehdi in the finals.

[Mike]

You should save it for later. And then you just say it.

[Andy]

Save it for later. By that I made a mistake.

[John (JW)]

I have a stunning announcement to make in about 90 seconds.

[Andy]

I gotta be honest, I feel like it's not going to hit as hard later now.

[John (JW)]

Spoiler alert.

[Andy]

Yeah.

[Mike]

Thanks for the tease, John.

[Andy]

He just couldn't help himself.

[Mike]

Yeah, yeah. Can't wait to tease that out in the break.

[Andy]

Shall we.

[John (JW)]

Shall we proceed?

[Andy]

We shall. Yeah.

[Mike]

Great.

[Andy]

I can't wait to talk about Medi in the final. I have Musetti through to the third round. All right, sound the horn, Sound the horn.

[John (JW)]

We need a horn.

[Andy]

Brutal draw for this guy. He's playing well. Early. Likes a short. Short. Also not quite Garon school, but close. I have Mahach in the fourth round.

[John (JW)]

Oh, you have Mahatma Dimitrov?

[Andy]

I do. I have him to beat Dimitrov, I have him to beat Sitzipos and I have him to beat Musetti.

[John (JW)]

Wow.

[Andy]

What are you going to do?

[Mike]

That's a run.

[Andy]

Give me all of the bonus points. You have changed the dynamic and I gotta be honest, I'm having way More fun. I was down on it.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[John (JW)]

I was gonna say.

[Mike]

Right.

[Andy]

I'm having a great time with these irresponsible picks now and we get to read.

[Mike]

I was gonna say. But before.

[John (JW)]

Before we've hit the first ball. It's been a lot of fun. God, this is a weird pocket, though. I mean, Musetti is the fifth player in the world, and I think, I think he's won. Someone check this. I think he's won two tournaments for his career, and they weren't even recent. I mean, the amount of damage he has done with a pretty thin resume, in terms, at least in terms of titles. Sonico, I think, has a real shot against his countrymen. You don't like to. You don't like Gregor to give. Nice to see him back. I mean, it's not exactly Mr. Durability.

[Andy]

I'm. Well, I mean, you're making an argument for. I love Gregor.

[John (JW)]

That's what I'm saying. He's right.

[Andy]

Yeah. I don't know. I know my hatch has been winning matches the last couple of weeks. That plays. As much as I like qualifiers, I like people, especially going into an event where we're literally. We're the only sport in the world that starts the entire season with a grand slam. Imagine, like the second week of the NBA season being the playoffs. Like, it's, it's absurd. So, So I have to give, like, I, I got to put some stock in. In this. And he has weapons, too. He can, he can swing it.

[John (JW)]

Yeah. How do we feel about former finalist, the 31st seed, struggling? Not yet 30 years old player that I have sentimental value for. You think Tsitsipas. You think that trains left the station, or you think he still can do some damage here?

[Andy]

I hope it hasn't left the station. I think it's a longer road back to where he's used to being right. I think. I don't want to say this. The trying the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. I don't know that that works at this point in, in his career. Like, something has to change. Like the, the, the. The data is telling you that something's got to give, something has to change. Right. And, and, and sometimes, like, it's. It sometimes a hard look in the mirror, like, has to happen. I feel like he's at that inflection point. I hope I'm wrong. I think he has a lot of value. I think he's. I don't like how everyone just like, instantly goes to just talking shit now because he's had a great career. He's been an unbelievable player. And to answer your question specifically, I think it's a long road back for him. As it currently stands, he's coming off.

[Mike]

A loss to Pukich.

[Andy]

Yeah, I watched that match. It wasn't great. Six and six. It wasn't great. Who do you have in the fourth round here?

[John (JW)]

I have a very, very grudging Musetti. I like to watch him. He's a little more. How do I put the. How about Italian cheese terms? He's. He's more.

[Andy]

He's.

[John (JW)]

He's more gorgonzola than pecorino.

[Andy]

Great.

[John (JW)]

I wish you were a little tougher. I wish there were a little more edge to Musetti.

[Andy]

So little techie.

[John (JW)]

Sean, I need more pecorino out of Musetti.

[Andy]

If someone would have said to you, yeah, that person's little more gogonzola than pecorino, what would you think that meant? I would have no idea.

[Mike]

Soft. I mean, soft versus soft.

[Andy]

That is like one of the most like ruminated, ruminative.

[Mike]

That's like one of the most elevated burns I've ever heard in my entire life. Like, if somebody hit me that on the playground about, you're brie, bro.

[Andy]

My mind. My mind just went to like a room full of Italians going, not fuck.

[John (JW)]

I wish he were a little harder.

[Andy]

Can you believe he said that? That's so fucked up, man. How could you? That's so fucked up. All right, next. Next section, as this is just derailed, I have Lahechka through to the third round. I have him playing Taylor Fritz. I have Fritz through to the quarters.

[John (JW)]

Concern about the Fritz knee, but I have him too.

[Andy]

I do, but I have concerns about everyone there. Like, I don't know.

[John (JW)]

Can I just. I mean, you know what? This is just sheerly observational and I'd love for your take here that a lot of times there's this chatter before these tournaments and so. And so cut their practice short and someone looks like they have, and half the time it's accurate and the player is clearly compromised and they're just playing cause it's a major. And they go in the interview room and say, if this were any other tournament, I never would have entered. And half the time these injuries that everybody's so concerned about vanish miraculously. And I find that there's very little predictive value of all this pre tournament chatter about who's hurt.

[Andy]

That's just observational, what we're talking. So one, there's like seven days in the year where you wake up and your body feels perfect. Like, you wake up and it's like, oh, nothing. Nothing really hurts at all. I feel nothing's tight, nothing's. So I think the conversation we're having is trying to predict injuries versus something that's bothering you that you don't want to risk. Right. Like Novak, if he has a little neck issue and needs to go to the chiropractor and do a little Cracky Magoo, like do that, why would you grind through that and make it worse? Right. Especially veterans like Fritz. Knows how to pace himself in a Grand Slam, knows how to play five setters, knows his form, has enough faith to where even if I don't have it, I can find it. Novak, the same. Yeah. So I don't know. I practiced less when I felt. When I felt good about my tennis, I'll tell you that much. My warmups would be like nine minutes long if I felt like I had it.

[Mike]

I mean, not to bring up Holger's interview one more time, but he did talk about that, right. Like feeling a little banged up in his hamstring and then his. So where in that calculation is it? Right. Like, he went to go. He was feeling good, so he went to go play an extra. A couple extra tournaments that maybe weren't in his schedule.

[Andy]

Yeah.

[Mike]

I mean, this is different.

[Andy]

It's a. It's a fine line. Something that is chronic. Like if it's hammy or the quad and if you've traveled, like the difference with Holgers, he traveled from Shanghai and then two days later was playing. Your body's just. There's no way to be a professional athlete when you're traveling across the world and you have like a day and a half for your body to like level set. I mean, think about how bad everyone feels when they go on vacation right now. Add 12 hours to that and then you have to beat a professional athlete when you're.

[Mike]

Now. But now at this point in the calendar, to John's point. Right. Like, at this point in the calendar, a lot of these, like dings and.

[Andy]

Bang ups versus uncomfortable, I think, is what we're. But also we. Jw, this is actually. This is a great. You're the perfect person for this. How I don't remember in my career that the spotlight on practices, like people would kind of cruise by, you know, but it seems like they, like they've opened the gates to the fans. There's a lot more eyeballs. Are we covering practices more than we ever have?

[John (JW)]

Yeah. And I think I mean, yeah, the short answer is yes. I mean the tournament's. And that's great. I mean this is a real value add for fans. But right now you can find the practice schedule and I can. You know, Novak's going out there on court 17 at 2 o' clock and then everyone is kind of doing this Zapruder film. Like, oh, he grimaced. I noticed that he had trouble with the low ball and a lot of times it's just bullshit. And these interviews, these sort of injuries and this scuttlebutt ends up amounting to nothing. That's just sort of observational. But yeah, I think practices are being screwed and I don't know if it's social media. Practices are definitely being scrutinized more, don't you think?

[Andy]

I think so. I feel like I'm hearing about it more. The other thing to look out for, just if you're watching a practice, I don't know, like if Novak was playing practice sets with Musetti and he's 12 minutes in and bails, you're affecting someone else's practice that is not planned. If he takes out a junior someone in Qualys and their entire thing is like, hey, listen, just, I need to get my reps in. Do you want to go play with the greatest player ever? Great. If he's playing with like a practice partner, coach type and leaves after 15 minutes, he may have just wanted those 15 minutes.

[Mike]

Oh, that's interesting.

[Andy]

If he's, if he's bailing against someone who's 20 in the world who's also trying to prepare for a slam run that you take more seriously. I'd booked a court for an hour, but if I felt great and felt like I had practiced the thing I went out there to do. 30 minutes in. Thank you. Gone. See ya. So I. Not what? Not in one report, I don't know that I saw who he was actually practicing with, which is a huge context clue.

[John (JW)]

Wait, just to throw that, Just to put a bow on that. Just so fans know sometimes and you know this better than I do, I mean sometimes you book a specific practice time with another player, whether it's simulating someone or whether it's, hey, we should go out and hit. Sometimes a tournament will provide it. I mean the US Open, the half the Columbia tennis team is out there at the US Open. It's much different when it's Lorenzo Sonigo on the other side of the net than the 19 year old freshman at Columbia who's just thrilled to be hitting some balls for 20 minutes.

[Andy]

So for an example, and then we'll move on with the rest of our draw show. But when I was 16, I remember I played the juniors, stayed in New York. We had to travel for a team competition. And so I was basically on call. And so the USTA was like, we have this kid. I got to hit with Moya before a semifinal match. I got to hit with like, all these pros. And we didn't always play sets, but they're like, moya needs to hit for 25 minutes. I'm like, hell, yes.

[Mike]

Oh, that's cool.

[Andy]

Yes, I'm in. I want to hit with all of these, like, superheroes. Like, have to. So John's absolutely correct. Like, you need to know who the person's practicing with. Who. He walked off after 32 minutes. He was scheduled for an hour. Yeah, because you got to book the fucking court for an hour if you want to pay for 35 minutes. Like, that's just the way it is. All right, who do you have? You answered who? Do you have Fritz through or are you. You are. You have Musetti through the quarters. You do.

[John (JW)]

No, I think. I think you raise a good point, which is with a day off, but veteran players know how to pace the. I think that's a really good point. So I think whatever's bothering Fritz, I trust him to get through.

[Mike]

Before we move on, can we just hit on Walwerinka? You think he makes it through?

[Andy]

I think he wins a match. I think I gave the sentimental match. I don't know that he takes out Lahechka, but I hope he gets all the cheers. I hope everyone goes out and says, thanks a lot. You're the man, Stan. I think that'd be awesome. The old Stanislaus. Okay, bottom, I have men Chic Novak. Quarters all work backwards. Qualifier Raphael Jodar, 19 years old from Spain, is apparently a stud. One to watch qualifier on qualifier crime. I'll take him. I do not think he will beat Menchic. This is a tough one. Who do you have with her Koch in Zizu Bergs? I know you're going to say her Koch.

[John (JW)]

No, I'm not, because it's best of five. But her Koch, I mean, Danger Day, that's a brutal draw. I mean, those are both two bonafide sleeper players. I worry about Hubie in a best of five format. And Berg's.

[Andy]

Have you seen his biceps?

[John (JW)]

He's a lot more informed recently, but he's been.

[Andy]

Yeah, seriously, it's like Garon's quads on his arms. I also. I Thought you were going to go the old Hubie there. I have Zizou Bergs also. I have Bergs going through to the third round. I have Men Sheik beating Bergs. Any different?

[John (JW)]

No. I thought I could pick up some points on you there.

[Andy]

I thought.

[John (JW)]

I like Bergs. Bergs to beat Griegspur in the Battle of the Low Country.

[Andy]

I do too. I have Nakashima through to the third round beating the Chucky Slayer, Van de Zanskulp. I have RBA against Shang. I don't know if I totally agree. It feels like he might be running out of steam a little. Finally, Nakashima Novak. I have Novak through to the semis.

[Mike]

To the semis.

[Andy]

Because that's what he does.

[John (JW)]

I mean, talk about data points. Like, what are we doing?

[Mike]

I'll pick it till he stops.

[Andy]

I made that mistake where it's like, oh, he's. I don't know if he's in shape. He hasn't looked good going in. And then he's in like the third round. I'm like, I'm a fucking idiot. Like, I'm so stupid. I'm overthinking this. Your expertise, whatever your psychologist thing said.

[John (JW)]

I like if I told you in a vacuum, if this were, I don't know, pick a tournament, right? If this were some random 500, even Indian wells. And I said, Brandon Nakashima, whatever, 15 years Novak's junior is just going to have too much freshness and beat a 38 year old man. It wouldn't sound that outrageous. But I don't know how you bet against. I mean, Novak's. The guy made the semis of all four majors last year. Why. Why are we going to assume a different outcome now?

[Andy]

Yeah, I mean, and also Pedro Martinez.

[John (JW)]

Of one point slam in the first round.

[Andy]

Yeah, I think, I think I, Yeah, I'm not even going to overthink that. I have Novak in the semis.

[John (JW)]

Who do.

[Mike]

You haven't played in the second round.

[John (JW)]

Oh, Terrence Atman. Remember what a lovely guy.

[Andy]

Atman was the semifinalist from Cincinnati last year.

[John (JW)]

Yeah, exactly.

[Andy]

He's playing a qualifier to beat him. Who do you think I'm. Who do you think I'm taking qualifier?

[Mike]

You think so?

[Andy]

I'm sorry, like is Otman played great in six other events that I'm. That I'm not aware of. Like, what are we doing here?

[John (JW)]

He gave a. He gave a boy who had his Pokemon card stolen some free Pokemon cards. So I thought him into the second.

[Mike]

It was a good story.

[Andy]

Sorry, I have Opman.

[Mike]

Opman.

[John (JW)]

Then.

[Andy]

No, you stick, stick, stick with your quality. Stick with it. I'm going Quali. Opman. I will say he came up and said hello at the U.S. open last year. Super friendly dude. Really nice. Congrats on. On Cincy. But I don't know. I'm going. I mean, qualifier and Italian. Italians win everything. Right now this guy Gorgonzola or. All right, who do you have?

[John (JW)]

Ben Shelton has a tricky match. Moving on. No, I have. I have Novak to beat. Atman. Yep.

[Andy]

You have Novak to beat. Oh, second round. Geez. I was like, what am I looking at here? Do you have Minshik in the fourth round?

[John (JW)]

I did.

[Andy]

Or do you go Birds?

[John (JW)]

We don't talk about Brandon Nakashima enough. Just as a side.

[Andy]

I do. I pick him like every time.

[John (JW)]

I have Mencheek, I have Mincheek.

[Andy]

Nagashima is really good spot server. Great backhand through the court. Kind of has this roller derby forehand, backhand to backhand with Novak. I love Nakashima's backhand. Top 15, 20 on Earth. And it's Novak going through Ben Shelton. Rough first round draw. Very tricky. And Umber is still. He's very streaky. And he was still playing in Auckland, I think one of the Adelaide, Auckland. So he has some matches coming in which, you know, I like. I'm not going to choose against Ben. I have been through to the quarters, but that is a tricky. Like he gets a break. He plays quick. You're not going to get a lot of rhythm. Not an easy first round draw. And then I have Gail Mumfis, hopefully. I don't know if it's his last trip around the earth as a professional tennis player. I have Manarino, I have Vachero. I've been versus Vachero. Although tricky. One of those, like, matchups where Vachero is like now on Tour. Tour Mannarino. Second round is. That's a. That's a like. Okay, welcome to the tour. Let's see how you deal with this weird matchup.

[John (JW)]

Why the sudden departure from your wild card strategy? You think Vatro beats Martin Dam, who qualified. Good for Martin Dam, by the way.

[Andy]

Martin Dam, qualifying is great. It gets my fitness thing. My other theory. So Vachero, one of the undersold parts of his win in Shanghai was that it was like playing on the sun that week. I think his fitness is very underrated. I think Dam. I don't know that he's been stress test tested. Stress tested in a. In a massive slam. I know he played the US Open last year. I remember him playing Francis. I just don't question Vachero's fitness on the heels of Shanghai at all. And that's, that's, that's what it is. And also qualifier versus someone who's top 30 versus qualifiers against someone ranked 90 is very different.

[John (JW)]

No, we're all waiting to see.

[Andy]

You said this in the fall.

[John (JW)]

Here's the guy who can't wait for the. He doesn't want it off season. This guy just wants to ride the momentum. So now here we see him as a top 30 player and yeah, Ben Shelton I think gets through this pocket but kind of a funky. It's a rough draw for him. Right. Right off the bat.

[Andy]

Not easy Every, every step along the way. If it's umber potentially mum feast and him getting the crowd into it. Vachero, who do you have in the Shapovaloff Rude section in the third round?

[John (JW)]

Yeah, yeah, I was gonna say that's kind of been a Sneaky.

[Andy]

He was 142 in Dallas last year and now is back 21 in the world.

[John (JW)]

It's not quite Wimbledon for Casper Rood, but this is not an event where he's done great damage. I may go. You know what? We could have two one handed backhands in the second round. By the way, if Altmeyer beats Chillich, I'll take Dennis to get through.

[Andy]

Yeah, I have.

[John (JW)]

We love Caspar Rude. You think Casper?

[Andy]

I have Shapovalov. I have Chilich beating Altmeyer on a quick court. Someone who's sneaky good on fast courts is Munar. A lot of people will see the Espana and just assume that he likes his socks dirty with the clay Bublick and Wimbledon. Yeah, Munar can play on fast courts. I'm just telling you I have him in the third round against Shapovalov. I have Shapovalov in the fourth round against Ben. I have been in the quarters. What about virtual upset special?

[John (JW)]

Yeah, I have virtually the exact same thing.

[Andy]

Okay, sound the horn. School is back in Mickelson over hatching off new rules.

[Mike]

I like rules.

[Andy]

Can I get your take on. On Carmel, Indiana as a fellow Indiana boy with the Baza Verretti, the old, the old Chokey Magoo signal. That was. What was your take on that one? That was a tough one.

[John (JW)]

Note to players know the scoring. You're talking about the qualifying. You're talking about poor Sebastian Offner of Austria who thought he. He thought seven points and you win a breaker.

[Andy]

Go ahead. So super breaker to 10. Last set he thought he only had to get to 7. Celebrated Nishesh Baza Verretti from Carmel, Indiana, home of Raj Ram came back won. And then when he won.

[Mike]

Just made.

[Andy]

The Reggie Miller choke signal to directly in the guy's face.

[Mike]

Like right at the mat.

[John (JW)]

Like it's an Indiana thing.

[Andy]

Yeah, I don't fucking care.

[Mike]

It didn't sit well.

[Andy]

I'm pretty sure Offner doesn't know that. Yeah, like I, I don't. I. That's a rough one. And you don't want to judge someone on one action. That's one where someone needs to go. That's probably not the one.

[John (JW)]

Man, that is the antithesis of Indiana too.

[Andy]

Well, not really. I mean Reggie Miller, Tyrese Halliburton, he's.

[Mike]

An Indiana boy on Indiana Knights.

[John (JW)]

We've seen a couple of NBA gestures early in this tennis season that are probably people wish they could take back. Yeah, I mean, I feel awful for Sebastian Offner too. I mean, who among us can't imagine ourselves. You're locked into the match. You forget that there's this different super tie break scoring system. You must get to 10 points, of course, in a decisive set tiebreak. Imagine what it does. I mean, whatever. It's going to go viral. Perhaps you play the last five minutes of that match knowing. But also just as a matter of psychology, you. You have this mental finish line in your head. Someone says, hey, hey, run this marathon and you're great. And they say we fucked up.

[Andy]

It's two.

[John (JW)]

Yeah, we got. You got two more miles. We fucked that up. Can you keep going? You just imagine what it does to your mental accounting. And yeah. Of Carmel, Indiana, Nashesh Bosh Verdi gets. You got into the main draw and won a match last year as well, I believe.

[Andy]

Yeah.

[John (JW)]

Lost in Novak in four, but yeah, that was not a. Not cool.

[Andy]

That's not the one.

[John (JW)]

He's young, he'll learn. We won't hold it against him too much. But that's one.

[Mike]

Being an Aussie going.

[Andy]

I do. I have my qualifier special. I have him beating, winning a match. I have him losing to Alex Mickelson. This next little section is really interesting to me. J.W. baez. Baez beat Fritz. He's still playing. He's winning a bunch of matches. He's been a top 20 player. Plays Pechy Paracard. One is five foot four, the other one's eight foot four. Right. Like it couldn't be more different. Darderi is. Is really good serves bombs. I was watching him yesterday against Giron. He was. He Was up. Up above 140 a bunch. Who do you have in this little section? I have. Do you and do you have Mickelson to the third round.

[John (JW)]

I saw that as an upset pick. But I think hatching off at a major is just the little extra gear of veteran. I. I'm tempted but I can't pull the trigger. I have. I have Baez who's. Who's very solid and has gotten a lot better on hard courts. And I think Perry Card is fun to watch but it's such a bad returner you can't really pencil him in to do much anymore. Dartery for a. For a 22nd seed. This is not a guy you hear much of. So commend him on a top 25 ranking without much of a profile. I like Baez. I like hatching off to be Baez.

[Andy]

Former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Christian Garin. Do you know who Nick Kyrgios beat to get to the Wimbledon final? Christian Garin in the quarterfinal. In the quarterfinals and then get a walkover from Rafa. But that's a rough section. I have. I have Pecky Paracard going through. Beat Tommy Paul last week. Still playing in. In Auckland. Returning a little better. But like this one. This is going to. We're going to have four different answers from everyone participating and they could all be right. Wouldn't shock me if hatching off was there. Wouldn't shock me if Mickelson was there. Wouldn't shock me if Paracar was there. Wouldn't shock me if Baez was there. Wouldn't shock me if Jardari was there. Like this is. I don't know and frankly I don't think it matters. Yeah, Darth Sinners down below.

[John (JW)]

Yep.

[Andy]

The biggest this is going to be we. I hope this match happens Hype central if we have a Fonseca center night match in Australia. Oh boy are we. Can we. We do we have that one? I have Fonseca Nardi. I have the old Duckworth center. I have Fonseca Sinner in the third round. Any different?

[John (JW)]

No, I just the asterisk. Fonseca's back has drawn some. Some chatter but I think he gets by Connecticut's own former Texas star in the first round. I mean for everything going sinner's way. Right. I mean he beat Carlos the last time they played and he's the double defending champion here and every his draw. Boy, he couldn't ask for much more than that. I don't see a lot of. I mean see him taking on some.

[Andy]

The first. What do you Think the first two rounds, I think are very comfortable. I think if you're Sinner, all you want to do is avoid people that have something that can bother you. So there can be really, really, really good players that don't have an elite skill to rip your head off with. Right. Like fun. Seka can rip the COVID off the ball. He can make Yannick uncomfortable. I don't think he'll do it at scale. I think it's too early in his career. But if you're Yannick and we just named all those players from above, right, The Hatchinoffs, the Mickels, all those. You don't want to play Pechy Paracard because he has that, like, elite skill that can actually, like, take you out of it. So, yeah, I think it's. I don't think it's the hardest draw for most people, but for Sinner, especially, all you want, you just don't want anything weird, right? And Fonseca has this like, weird amount of power on both sides. Pecci Pericard, you know, is. Is a strange matchup. All that to say. I have center in the semis playing to playing Pesha Cardi Pericard in the fourth round against center.

[Mike]

Really?

[Andy]

Yeah.

[John (JW)]

Man, you sound like me.

[Andy]

I know.

[Mike]

You know what? You know what Roger said recently about Fonseca? He said that he reminds him of him.

[Andy]

Roger said that about Fonseca? Fonseca. I don't see that style wise, but.

[John (JW)]

I was gonna say, do you, do you see that?

[Andy]

Not really, but Roger would. I mean, I defer to. I mean, he obviously sees something.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

Maybe it's just the easy power.

[Mike]

Needs to learn a little bit more about tennis. But yeah, he said I, I.

[Andy]

Well, yeah, I mean, the variety is there. I, I. The elite ball striking and the movement. I mean, he's. There's a reason we're all talking about him, but the, the mat, like, I don't know that he hits much, you know, Chips. I don't know that he Chips returns. I don't. I'd have to have to dig in on. I'd be curious to hear the extended reasoning for that from. From Roger. All right, I'm going to level set. We have. I have Alcaraz, I have Demon in the quarters, I have Zverev in the quarters. I have Mehdi, I have Alcaraz Medvedev and I have Alcaraz in the final. Jw, you, you had big news for us that you already said.

[John (JW)]

I think big, big news may have been a bit of an oversell and I Mean, the big picture that we haven't even really talked about. I mean, just to level set, really level set. We're eight straight majors won by one of two guys. Do we think someone else is going to breach the perimeter and penetrate the drawbridge and every other horrible cliche? Do we see anyone other than sinner Alcaraz winning a ninth straight?

[Andy]

Do you see any penetration?

[John (JW)]

Breaching of perimeter. Breaching perimeter.

[Mike]

Breaching the perimeter is. Who is it the surprise that you were going to tell us about?

[John (JW)]

No, I don't. I don't see. I mean, I.

[Andy]

Are we storming a castle? Are you going to pick Medvedev over Alcaraz again?

[John (JW)]

No, I'm picking center beats Medvedev. But I think we should lose sight of the big picture here.

[Andy]

Medi in the final, you. He likes to take one big one, doesn't he? Likes to take a swing. I have. I'm going to go crazy and I'm going to. I'm going to play. I'm going to take Alcaraz. I have Fritz Novak. I have Novak in the semis. I have Sinner. I have Sinner to win the tournament. Center versus Ben. Anything different there, jw? No, I.

[John (JW)]

Well, I mean, little, but I have. I have Novak to the semis again. I can't bet against him until proven otherwise. I think Medvedev gets in his licks against Alcaraz. I think Sinner wins another major here.

[Andy]

Well, I think Biggest call, jw. I thought I was like, oh, I'm gonna take Medi the semis, so suck on that, everyone. He's like, yeah, fuck that. I take it to the final.

[Mike]

If Mehdi wins this thing, Medi's got it.

[Andy]

I like. You know what I also like? Like, Medi's got a nice little trim. Yeah, he's got a nice little haircut. He looks clean. He looks like he's being friendly so far this year.

[Mike]

Fonseca buzzes hair too.

[Andy]

I don't think Medi's yelled at anyone yet this year.

[Mike]

He hasn't yet.

[Andy]

No.

[Mike]

There's still time.

[Andy]

Yeah, I know, but he played a full term. I don't think he yelled at anyone.

[John (JW)]

What a great. Did you see his tweet the other day? What a great. When he won the event instead of.

[Andy]

Running out of cities. Mike read it in the last show. Thanks for listening to that one, jw.

[John (JW)]

That made me laugh.

[Andy]

Anything else?

[John (JW)]

I'm traveling.

[Andy]

Anything else? Producer Mike, what do we got?

[Mike]

No Go to serve bracket tennis or go to servedpodcast.com. you can sign up. You guys can play along. Remember, we do a redraw halfway through because our picks are normally so horrible that we need to restart to reset the record straight. Go over, sign up for our newsletter, check out the merch store and do all the fun stuff.

[Andy]

As with every Grand Slam, we will be here every day.

[Mike]

Yes.

[Andy]

Going through quick served.

[Mike]

So drops into your inbox.

[Andy]

Yeah. Subscribe. So it drops into your inbox.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

Totes. We will be here every day. When does it. It starts on Sunday. The time change? Whatever day it starts, we'll be here. We'll go on quick serve. Pretty much right as the night session is finishing. We'll tell you what happened. We'll tell you what we think is going to happen that day. Jw, check in. Can't wait to hear from you on site down there.

[John (JW)]

We'll be here.

[Mike]

John, what's the first, what's the first round match you want to see the most? Which one are you going to go see? What's in your calendar?

[John (JW)]

Well, I've got to see. I've got to see Jensen Brooksby beat Bublek so I can get off to an early start on my points accumulation.

[Andy]

Mine's very easy. Yeah, very easy. It's obviously I want to see Mutet yell at Aussies. Oh, yeah, against school, kid.

[Mike]

That's what I do want to say. I'll be DVRing that one.

[Andy]

That's what I want to see.

[Mike]

Yeah.

[Andy]

All right, take care, jw. Producer Mike, good job. I like the points thing. Adds a nice little, little layer.

[Mike]

Good job, team. Good job.

[Andy]

I've been all over producer Mike. He's like, we have a point system but he wouldn't tell me about it. He's protecting secrets. Gotta be honest, wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it would be. Thank you for watching serve. We will see you a ton over the next couple weeks. Grand Slam season is here.