2026 Wimbledon Day 11 Recap: All-Czech Women’s Final, Men's Semifinal Preview & More

Summary

Served with Andy Roddick — 2026 Wimbledon Day 11 Recap

Podcast: Served Media Network
Date: July 10, 2026
Host: Andy Roddick with Jon Wertheim (“JW”) and Mike (Producer)
Episode Focus: Women’s Semifinals Recap, Preview of the All-Czech Final, Men’s Semifinal/Final Preview, Tournament Atmosphere

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Episode Overview

This lively Wimbledon recap episode centers on the Day 11 women’s semifinals, the remarkable all-Czech women’s final ahead, and an in-depth preview of the men’s semifinals and finals. Andy Roddick, Jon Wertheim, and Mike intertwine analysis, statistical insights, and their humor-infused camaraderie to deliver a behind-the-scenes feel—from tactical breakdowns to the unique Wimbledon neighborhood experience.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Coco Gauff vs. Karolina Muchova: Drama & Decisive Points

• The Semifinal Narrative: Described as initially odd—each player taking a lopsided set before building to dramatic final-set drama and a third-set tiebreak.
  • “You ever see a movie where the first act, you're not quite sure where they're going...then it comes together and coalesces...I would go so far as to say classic. This was great.” (JW, 01:37)
• Gauff’s Tournament on Grass:
  • Gauff’s comeback effort spotlighted—she has played five straight three-setters this season.
  • Noted improvements in her grass game, cleaning up technical aspects, and tactical variety, particularly her drop shot usage.
• Match Point Controversy:
  • The now-viral moment: Gauff up 9–8 in the deciding tiebreak misses a drop shot, handing momentum to Muchova.
    • “No one ever...calls a drop or a bad decision anymore...But it’s a bad play on grass most of the time. Like, it is.” (Andy, 03:21)
    • Data: Drop shots win 58% of points at Roland Garros, but only about 50% at Wimbledon, yet players’ usage patterns do not shift much.
  • Both praise and critique: Shot selection seen as sound given Muchova’s movement was compromised; execution, not choice, proved costly.
    • “If I pull it off, it's this genius move and it's the clever drop shot that closes out the match. It was...more the execution than the decision.” (JW, 05:51)
• Gauff’s Growth:
  • “She’s going to look at this year and say, that's the year where I finally kind of figured out how to play on grass.” (Andy, 05:08)
  • Impressed by her rational response post-match.
  • “She’ll regret it, she’ll move on. She was very sort of rational about it afterwards.” (JW, 05:51)

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2. Muchova’s Composure & Final Prospects

• Muchova’s tactical, creative play highlighted—her ability to close matches, a prior weakness, has evolved.
• Health for the final: Speculation around Muchova’s movement and potential injury concerns, but no direct answers from her.
  • “She wouldn’t give anything up...She didn't like give you the diagnosis...” (JW, 06:49–06:56)
• A “streaky” but experienced player; this is her fourth Slam final weekend.

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3. All-Czech Final: Noskova vs. Muchova

• Noskova’s Path:
  • Beat Kostyuk in a composed, clutch semifinal. Shown to be “sneaky good” at the net and impressively consistent under pressure.
    • Andy praises her: “I’m really impressed with her backhands—world class. Her skill set is great.” (Andy, 09:02)
  • Health could play a role; Muchova has the edge in Grand Slam experience.
• Czech Dominance:
  • Stat of the day: “Four of eight [Wimbledon] women's finalists over the last four years are Czech.” (Mike, 13:09)
  • Discussion on Czech women’s tennis pedigree—“for a country of whatever 10 million people, they pump out them women's tennis players.” (JW, 13:35)
  • Playful Czech wordplay about the final—“fairy tale” vs. “double Czech” likely to dominate headlines.

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4. Wimbledon Grass—Conditions & Tactics

• Courts are particularly dry and baked due to no rain, making play faster and bounce higher, “hard court adjacent,” especially in later stages.
  • “This thing’s going to be playing like fast hardcourt adjacent...It was literally like dirt when you were standing on it in the final.” (Andy, 11:19)
• Discussion about subtle changes in footing and the effect on sliding/movement.
  • “Might slide a little bit...but it doesn’t feel as uncontrolled as when your legs flip out...like giraffe on ice skates in the first days of the tournament.” (Andy, 12:20)

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5. Men’s Semifinals & Final Preview

a) Sinner vs. Djokovic

• Sinner is defending champion, and the crowd will be squarely with Novak, the “39-year-old.”
• Novak’s Marathon Prowess:
  • Stat: Djokovic is 5-0 lifetime in matches that go over five hours.
    • “Novak, undefeated in matches plus five hours.” (JW, 13:58)
• The nuanced discussion of Sinner’s path:
  • “I think Sinner’s the favorite...the path to victory is a narrower margin for Novak.” (Andy, 16:00–16:31)
  • Referenced the Australian Open match, where Sinner was statistically dominant in chances (2/18 on break points vs. Novak’s 5/8), but Novak was clutch at key moments.
• Grass Advantage:
  • Andy thinks grass is arguably Novak’s best surface at this stage, better for him than Sinner, even though Sinner is the defending champ.
  • “If Sinner plays good, not great—I think he has a real chance to win this.” (Andy, 17:32)
  • Novak’s erosion-style pressure on opponent’s weaknesses is contrasted against Sinner, who has no obvious "leak" if he’s on.
  • Noted Sinner’s forehand errors early in this year’s tournament—a weakness Novak may try to exploit.
    • “He can miss six in a row and believe that he’s going to make the next one.” (Andy, 19:21)

b) Zverev vs. Ferry

• Zverev is the favorite on paper—a Roland Garros champion, No. 2 seed—versus wildcard Ferry, who’s outside the top 100.
• Contrast in Styles:
  • Zverev's new confidence on grass noted, but his “defensive cutie” nature (playing well behind the baseline) may serve him better against Ferry, who’s thrived as a counterpuncher.
    • “All of the improvement that we've seen from Zverev on grass...his best shot against Ferry might be just cruising back to where Zverev likes to play where he gets criticized for playing 6ft behind the baseline.” (Andy, 22:48)
  • Will Zverev stress-test Ferry by going into longer, more passive rallies instead of attacking?
• Ferry’s Tennis IQ:
  • “I've watched so much of Fairy this tournament...He rarely makes the wrong decision. He rarely makes dumb errors...His footwork on grass is phenomenal. He reads drop shots well...the tennis IQ is never going to be the thing...a challenge for him.” (Andy, 26:42)
• Atmosphere & Emotions:
  • Discussion of the “home advantage” for Ferry, whose mother is a club member—he knows these courts exceptionally well, an intangible benefit.
    • “Fairy, his mom's a member of the club. He can play on this grass. And I think that is relevant too.” (JW, 27:53)
  • Zverev is experienced in pressure/hostile crowd environments and won’t be fazed by pro-Ferry sentiment.
• Overall Assessment:
  • Analysis concludes that Zverev might revert more to his old, familiar game and that the matchup’s outcome hinges on who can adapt to unexpected patterns.

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6. Wimbledon’s Special Atmosphere & Player Experience

• Roddick shares what makes Wimbledon unique: unlike any other tournament, it blends world-class tennis with a cozy “neighborhood” feel, walking to dinner, mingling with locals and fellow players, and living close to the action.
  • “There's no other tournament you've been hearing me talk about it, where we walked to dinner...sat down, walked home, came in, did a show. You know, JW and I were at the desk...It is just, like, the best experience ever.” (Andy, 30:42)
• Expressions of deep gratitude to local hosts and the Wimbledon community for fostering the tournament’s unmatched culture.
  • “Thank you for all the people that have put their homes up and let us enjoy their special neighborhood, this special experience. It is something that we enjoy, we look forward to all year.” (Andy, 32:09)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Nerves at Key Moments:
  • “Listen, you can...Oh, she was tight. I'm like, yeah, that's what happens when you're about to go to a Wimbledon final. Yes. It means something to you. It manifests in your body in a certain way.” (Andy, 03:59)
• On Player Evolution:
  • “She [Gauff] cracked the riddle of grass...” (JW, 05:36)
• Czech Stat Highlight:
  • “Four of eight. The number of Wimbledon women's finalists over the last four years that are Czech...” (Mike, 13:09)
• Djokovic Marathon Master:
  • “Novak, undefeated in matches plus five hours.” (JW, 13:58)
• Nuanced Final Preview:
  • “If Sinner plays good, not great—I think he has a real chance to win this...Novak is so dialed on how to use the grass and play with the grass.” (Andy, 17:32)
• Ferry’s Tennis IQ:
  • “He rarely makes the wrong decision. He rarely makes dumb errors...” (Andy, 26:42)
• Wimbledon Vibe:
  • “Wimbledon is completely differentiated by this, like, neighborhood feel. There's no other tournament...like home for a couple weeks a year.” (Andy, 30:42–32:09)

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Important Timestamps

• Coco Gauff vs. Muchova Analysis: 01:24–06:13
• All-Czech Final Preview: 07:08–10:21
• Court Conditions & Grass Talk: 09:36–12:24
• Women’s Czech Dominance Stat: 13:09
• Djokovic vs. Sinner Preview: 14:16–21:25
• Zverev vs. Ferry Deep Dive: 21:52–27:49
• Wimbledon Lifestyle Reflections: 30:42–32:09

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Episode Tone

Balanced between playful banter, sharp insight, and a sense of tennis community. Roddick’s mix of self-deprecating humor (“I know this guy who won his first major final then never won another one...”), JW’s measured stats/analysis, and Mike’s stats-plus-hosting give listeners the feeling of being “in the room” with tennis insiders.

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For full tactical breakdowns, lively stories, and grass-court wisdom, this is a must-listen for any tennis fan following Wimbledon’s second week.

Transcript

[A]

I have my dream job. But even dream jobs have not so dreamy parts. That's where ServiceNow's AI specialists come in. They don't just tell you what to do about your busy work, they actually do it. That way your team can focus on what matters. To learn how to put AI to work for people, visit servicenow.com. Everyone, welcome to serve. Brought to you by ServiceNow JW Mike Just in his office. Just doing it.

[B]

Just doing it.

[A]

Sean. Still holding down the fort here at the serve studio, London style. Guys, can I be honest with you?

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

Please.

[A]

So I wasn't. I had like a day off. I wasn't on an air. I had to go in for some production stuff at espn, but I was largely freed up. Had dinner with James and Emily Blake and my wife Brooke. Had two cocktails. Guys.

[B]

Is that why there's no wine today?

[A]

Yeah, no, there. Oh, is that why there's no wine today?

[C]

Nope.

[A]

There's wine.

[C]

Don't worry.

[A]

We're still going. Yeah.

[C]

That's not a brace. That's a hat trick.

[A]

Yeah, we're fine. There's just a hat trick.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

We're gonna see. We're gonna let this go. We're gonna see if we can, if we, if we, if we can get

[C]

through a Geneva finishing with this guy wearing a lampshade on his head. But we got tennis attack.

[A]

We do.

[C]

Sobering thoughts.

[A]

Yeah. Listen, move a Coco first two set.

[C]

Kind of weird.

[A]

Like, is like one played well, the other boy and it was. They kind of offset and then all the drama came at the njw.

[C]

You ever see a movie where the first act, you're not quite sure where they're going and the second act doesn't quite get there and then it comes together and coalesces and you have a. I would go so far as to say classic. This was great. You had a 6:1 set and a 6:2 set. And this was one of my favorite matches of the tournament. Great drama. We can get right to the chase and talk about Coco's 98 point. Yep.

[A]

And that, that point that everyone seems

[C]

to be talking about would be interested on your thoughts. Coco holds match point nine eight in the winner take all breaker. I mean, she did a great job getting back in the match. Another three setter. Her fifth straight over half her matches this season have been three sets. So she loses the first set. It's almost irrelevant. She gets back into the match. She gets back. She was losing in the breaker and came back. She's nine, eight up, hits a great Serve down the middle. That move is lucky to get back. There's a sitter about halfway between the net and the service line. And little dropper. Yeah.

[A]

No, great. Yeah. You know what I've actually been thinking about this for two weeks, is that no one ever, ever, ever with post Carlos Alcaraz calls a drop or a bad decision anymore. Like, everyone's kind of fine with it. I've seen more and actually had Hawkeye for ESPN do the. The stat backup, the conversion rate on the win percentage of. Of points where people hit a drop shot. Roland Garros versus Wimbledon. What do you think that differential is

[C]

in terms of successful drop?

[A]

Yes. Points. One after playing a drop shot?

[C]

I'd say 20, 20 difference?

[A]

Not quite. Well, I guess it's 58% points. One at Roland Garros, about 50% at Wimbledon, and yet the volume hasn't really changed.

[C]

That's interesting.

[A]

Like, it's a bad play on grass most of the time. Like, it is. And Coco's been hitting that shot. We've been celebrating her variety this entire tournament. Like, I don't know. Sometimes you miss a shot.

[C]

That's exactly what she. She was great after that. I mean, totally confronted after. I mean, I also will say that Muhava was. Was moving gingerly in this super tie break. So maybe, hey, this is a player with compromised movement. I don't. I mean, you know, from the cheap seats, people say, oh, it's a bailout. She was colonized by fear. I don't think it was that bad a decision. It was just really badly executed. I think there's a difference.

[A]

Listen, you can. Oh, she was tight. I'm like, yeah, that's what happens. That's what happens when you're about to go to a Wimbledon final. Yes. It means something to you. It manifests in your body in a certain way.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

The goal is to kind of, like, be better at being nervous. Like, that's the goal.

[C]

Yeah, right.

[A]

Like, Fed got nervous. Rafa, his entire documentary, which, by the way, just got. Emanated. Emanated. First mistake cocktail dinner nominated for an Emmy.

[C]

Emanated for a nominee.

[A]

Emanated for a nominee. It was emitted for anomaly. That is cool. Congrats to them. That's. That's cool. But Rafa, you think of him as, like, this guy, this gamer, this competitor. He's like, I had such anxiety that I. I had a hard time drinking water sometimes.

[C]

Like, I don't know.

[A]

Here's what. Here's what I think.

[C]

Right.

[A]

One. Props to Mukova. She is a Complete player. She is fun to watch, by the way. This is not her first Grand Slam final. It's her fourth final weekend in the Slam. She's been the semis of the US Open twice. She's so much fun to watch. She's streaky, right? Like I watch her in this tournament and I can't figure out how she ever loses first or second round of tournament. And she does it a fair bit.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Like, you know, so she's, she's phenomenal. Also, if we project forward with Coco, if she ever wins this event, which is way more likely now than it was 10 days ago, she's going to look at this year and I know this is like a glass half full reaction to a disappointing result. She's going to look at this year and say, that's the year where I finally kind of figured out how to play on grass. Is that, is that too optimistic?

[C]

No, I think she, she, she cracked the riddle of grass. She came within a couple points. She, her, her fight back was great. She. Double faults. I mean, she did have one in the breaker, unfortunately.

[A]

Two for the match, by the way.

[C]

In a match that ended seven, six in the third, she had three aces, two double faults.

[A]

Like, get out of here.

[C]

The technical stuff has been cleaned up. It was a couple of loose points here and there. Again, I don't think you're playing a tight injured opponent. And she said, look, if I pull it off, it's this genius move and it's the clever drop shot that closes out the match. It was, I think it's again, more the execution than the decision. She'll regret it. She'll move on. She was very sort of rational about it afterwards.

[A]

And that's strange. She's normally so irrational and crazy.

[C]

Exactly. She beats her. No, she had a rational human, which is like, first of all, like, how many people in the world would love to be in the position of losing in a semifinal? And then, yeah, I botched a shot. What do you want me to do? Credit to move over for closing. We talked about this before. She is such a flashy, fun, creative player. She has had trouble closing out matches. So to win the past few times. She's had a really good tournament, not just results wise, but in terms of sort of managing the cadence of a match and closing, which she did really well today.

[A]

How do we feel about her health moving forward?

[C]

She came to Tennis Channel, we asked her, but she, she wouldn't give anything up. Weird.

[A]

She didn't like give you the diagnosis and project that to her.

[C]

She didn't say, oh, my abs are really sore and I'm going to have trouble in 48 hours moving. That's my right.

[A]

If if Naskova started to bury the lead, if Naskova who beat Costa. If Naskova runs me right, I'm going to be in big trouble.

[C]

She didn't say that.

[A]

She didn't tell you that.

[C]

She didn't give up the game like that. Strange, just to be honest, what do we always say? She has a day to recover. We have a. What do you think is going to win? This is the big rivalry of the final weekend. Is it fairy tale or double check? And various checkmate. And what pun is going to get played to death more Fairy tale has

[A]

like a big 24 hour head start.

[B]

It's a good.

[A]

And it'll probably end it. Like, I'll save my prediction. I mean, I'm going to do Ferry the biggest favor ever because I've literally been picking against him the entire way. I'm going to pick Verav again. So you're welcome. Fantastic. He's in the final. Naskova, Costiuk. Naskova's like, we have Mujova, who just won our 10th straight grass court match. Manoskova's summer right around there because she won Berlin also. She's maybe 11 or 10 also. Like, this is a lot of momentum coming into this final in grass.

[C]

And talk about a player who's comfortable on the surface. Very different match, these two. This was just four and four. I think both sets went to four all. And Nazka just said, you know, I'm going to knuckle down. And kind of a disappointment for Kostya. Two straight semis. She's lost two matches since like April 1, but both major semis and both sort of. I wouldn't say anything to be ashamed of, but not her best. I think she started about 50% and a couple, you know, both break games were kind of loose and just nothing to beat herself up over, but just not quite as sharp as she needed to be. But nascar, she's a player, she has a lot of skill, like points at the net.

[A]

She can kind of play from everywhere.

[C]

Everywhere.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

And also nothing looks like when some people go to the net, it looks like they're trying to go to net. Like she ends up in the right places where you're like, oh, you look up and it's like, oh, yeah, she came to land a little bit. Oh, she came. She won 13 points up there. Like it's. She kind of has this like subtle way, you know, it's like a guy in the NBA where you look up and he's got 26 points.

[C]

Yeah, right. Why did he take that?

[A]

And you're like, he's made like four shots. Like, she's very sneaky. Kind of like. I don't know. I, I'm really impressed with her back ends. World class. Her skill set is great. Who do you.

[C]

She is again? I, you, you touched on it. I mean, I do, I do think health could play a role. I guess you got to go with Muhava, who's been there before and you know, she hadn't played on center court until today. You like the, you like the kid. I'll tell you one thing real quick first though. The courts are really beaten up. I mean we always say this final, but this looks like. You ever see the sandlot, Sean? You know the sandlot? I do.

[A]

Oh my gosh. You know something? That was not really.

[C]

Yeah, of course. All right.

[A]

Sean is where we landed on the moon.

[C]

I'm not going to Taylor Swift. Taylor Swift got married. The. No, the, the court is, the court's really beaten up. But these players use so much of it. I'm talking about MUA and NASA and so many angles and they play it net. They're not going to stick to the middle of the baseline. So I think the court will actually benefit from the, the variety and the nooks and crannies of the court they use. But I, I, I don't know. First, first major final by a long shot. I mean shin. This was her first time.

[A]

She been first was the quarter.

[C]

First quarter. I think you're right.

[A]

No, she, she, this was her first set, first final.

[C]

That's a big life changing occasion. She also, I mean she speaks very openly about sort of, she's, she's shy. She was reserved. This is not one of these. Oh, I was born for the spotlight. I just, I just, I've seen that movie so many times where the first time major finalist gets a little bit of, of deer in headlights. But I don't know. I mean, I think their games match up. Well. What do you.

[A]

I know this guy who won his first major final then never won another one, so can go the other way sometimes.

[C]

That's true. Fair point.

[A]

I will tell you. And you're laughing a little hard there, Mike.

[B]

Chill out.

[C]

Going to modulate that in post.

[A]

God. Awesome. I will tell you. So you mentioned. Now you're laughing. This sucks.

[C]

Well done.

[A]

Got again.

[B]

You started it.

[A]

Edit laughter. I didn't start anything. I will tell you you mentioned the court being completely baked. We haven't had a drop of rain.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Like let it drop.

[C]

Yeah right.

[A]

The whole tournament.

[B]

Right. Not anyway the whole tournament.

[A]

I've played this tournament where it rains for five days straight and right. The, the grass stays a little greener. The greener the the court is, the more muted the bounce is. It's like a thud and then it kind of like, you know, deadens. This thing's going to be playing like fast hardcore adjacent. Right. The 09. Like in 09 it barely ran the entire tournament and it was literally like dirt when you were standing on it in the final. Like it was. You were kicking up like your, your socks and I had angle brace. They look brown like they would on click French. Yeah. Yeah. So it was. This will play hard fast through the court. The bounces will be great through the middle. It's just when it's straight on deep on the baseline where people have been landing on their serves, if a return is hit there then it gets a little dicey just from, just from the, the wear and tear.

[B]

Can I ask you a little bit about footing? You know, once it starts to get kind of dusty and dirty back there. I mean we saw a few slips especially in Coco's match. Is. Is the footing become massively different? I'll.

[A]

I'll play on like a dried out grass court where it's like kind of as opposed to like the slippery first day all green where you, you like, you're seeing some slips but they're not the like you know, giraffe on ice skates slips that you get like in the, the first four days of the tournament. So it's, it's a little bit different. You might slide a little bit or you might like but it's, it doesn't feel as uncontrolled as when you kind of your legs flip out and you like I hope she's feeling better. But like in BoCo at Queens, right where the like it goes and everything goes or Sinner took one early in the tournament too. Like you look at it, it kind of makes you, makes you flinch a little bit. So should be, it should be fine. You know, I think we should preview the men's.

[C]

Yeah. A little bit.

[A]

So before, before we get to that,

[B]

before we transition from the ladies, I just wanted to give you the servicenow stat of the day that relates to the women.

[A]

Oh, did you?

[B]

Yeah. It's four of eight. The number of Wimbledon women's finalists over the last four years that are Czech. You have Vondrosova 2023, Kurchikova 2024. And now both Mohova and Noskova in 2026.

[C]

Wow. It's pretty cool. How about Pliskova, the year after Covid? Yeah. So that's another one. And then Patrick Vitova won twice.

[A]

Twice, Yeah.

[C]

I mean, for a country of whatever 10 million people, they, they pump out them women's tennis players.

[A]

We're quick to be like Spain clay court specialist. We ever go check grass court like this is. I'm glad you're saying this out loud, Mike. This is a good one.

[C]

That's a good one.

[A]

I actually had another one also.

[B]

Okay.

[C]

Stat.

[A]

And it's five. But then followed by hours. Novak Djokovic, five zero all time and matches over five hours.

[C]

Novak, undefeated in matches plus five hours.

[A]

Oh, center hasn't won a match over 347 or something like that. Yeah. So if I go. If it's. If a match lasts four hours.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

You're saying Novak wins for sure.

[C]

Money goes to the other side of the table. Handicapped, that one.

[A]

We should preview this final. Novak and center. What are your early thoughts, jw?

[C]

It sounds kind of like a crazy discussion at some level. You got the number one player in the world. He's in the prime of his career. He's a defending champion and he's 15 years younger. Like, what are we doing here?

[A]

And then you say, what are we doing in Australia?

[C]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

And then you say, wait a second,

[C]

before we blow through these stop signs, what we're doing in Australia, the last time they played a best five, Novak one. I think you could make a very convincing case. On balance. Novak may even have looked better here. He certainly had to play a tougher slate of opponents. He got the extra days off. I still think, I know this is hard to quantify in one of these mushy things that we should resist, but I still think the crowd support in Novak's sense of occasion and the weight of occasion and the kids there and 15,000 fans who will be very partisan for the 39 year old is something we can't ignore. Center, one of the few players with a superior head to head over.

[A]

Novak, 6 5.

[C]

But 65 lost the last one, won

[A]

five in a row before that one. We thought the tables had turned.

[C]

I don't know how Novak is going to pull up over 7:6 in the fifth marathon.

[A]

Two days.

[B]

Two days.

[C]

He's got a real two days.

[A]

Real amount of time. One day would have been cooked.

[C]

I, I saw the, the, I mean, the. It's like 80, 20. I mean, the. The heavily. Heavily favoring center. I think it's much closer than that. What do you think?

[A]

I'd take four to one.

[C]

What do you think? Yeah, exactly. So what do you think?

[A]

Here's what I think. We mentioned the Australia match as if it's like gravity, right? Like it happened. Therefore it's fact. And therefore I think there's some nuance.

[C]

Right.

[A]

I think Sinner's the favorite. I agree with everything you said about Novak. I'm, like, blown away, you know, Best match manager, I think, in the history of our game. Maybe this side of Sampras, right? Where it's like you throw away some points, you take some points, you kind of pick and choose your spots. Here's what I think. I think the path to victory is a narrower margin for Novak, right? I think. I don't think Sinner has to play as perfectly as Novak has to. The one stat that I think is largely ignored from the Australia match.

[C]

Right?

[A]

Novak wins in five.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Unbelievable. All the superlatives. They all fit center 2 for 18 on break points. Created way more opportunities than Novak now didn't convert them. So analyze that. All you want was more clutch, all that. Novak five for eight on break points. He threaded the needle, pulled it off over 5, right. So his set of margins was narrower in Australia and he figured it out. Is that normal? And if we put that at scale, is he able to do that again?

[C]

He. He is.

[A]

He is capable. It would shock no one if he won this match. And I just think Sinner's kind of path is wider to. To win this match. Yeah, that's it. I mean, 5 for 8 versus 2 for 18. It was a nail biter. Barely got over the line against a

[C]

guy who can serve. I mean, it's not like I actually.

[A]

I know it's crazy to say because Novak's won Australia 77 times. I think grass is probably a better surface for Novak to have an impact on center, right. I think. I know center won last year, but I think Novak is so dialed on how to use the grass and play with the grass. And at this point in his career, I think it's probably his best service. But I think it's a narrow path to victory. I think if Novak plays average, I don't think he has a chance to win it. If Sinner plays good, not great, I think he has a real chance to win this. And so that's. That's kind of where I'm at. I will say Felix and safely before both were getting the Payoff early with forehands either from the middle of the court or from the left side. Going big to Novak's forehand.

[C]

Right.

[A]

Novak was either not quite there or going big when he was on the run. Right. Kind of almost bailing out back end defensively is. That's fantastic because he can get out there with that left foot. And so I'm curious to see if Sinner kind of sees the same thing that his last two opponents have. Have seen and played to get some and takes that hard to Novak's forehand. But to layer in on top of that, it's just not that easy, Sinners. And I've said this on ESPN a million times, I'll say it again tomorrow. So if you're watching in the morning and you hear, you know it's going to be the same thing. Sinner was off on his forehand the first week of this tournament. He had 14 errors through the first two rounds of last year's Wimbledon on his forehand side. This time he had 45 errors, triple the amount of errors through two rounds. Right. So I think he might know the pattern that we're talking about. He will have seen it. He will have scouted it. And he's been missing his forehand a little bit.

[B]

Now.

[A]

We also did a segment where it's like he's unconscious. He'll miss five in a row and I'll hit the six one harder.

[C]

Who are we talking about now?

[A]

Sinner.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

Like he, he was missing early and he never lays off because of his miss. And it's like a really admirable quality. I would have tightened in the margins and laid off of it and pushed

[C]

and shaped and curled and yeah, been horrible.

[A]

He can miss six in a row and believe that he's going to make the next one. So I expect to see that, that pattern, that payoff early. Curious to see what Novak does with second serves. I'm expecting him to run it big on the body, maybe out to the fore end. I think he has to mix that around a little bit going into the match against faa, so. And he won a lot of second serve points against faa. Like for a minute it was almost the same as first serve points one. There was a split going into the quarterfinals. Last year at Wimbledon, Novak was defending his second serve at a 59% points one clip. Going into the quarterfinals this year, he was defending it at a 47% clip. That's significant. 12% differential with second serve points one actually matters.

[C]

Right.

[A]

So curious to see what those adjustments are. I Think Sinner is going to get through a bunch of service games. Pretty straightforward. Also, one of the differences is as I dropped my phone against faa, right. Enough water finds the leak, Right? So Felix's back end held up for four sets.

[C]

Yeah, right, right.

[A]

And the entire broadcast we were talking about he needs to find it, he needs to find it. And FAA was actually swinging through his back end pretty well. We gave him props for it. Fifth set, Felix said one winner and 10 unforced errors on the backhand side.

[C]

Novak or four on the breaker too.

[A]

Yeah, Novak is like erosion. You don't see it at a. You don't see it right away and then you look, you know, however many years later and it's broken. But apply that to a five set match, right? He will chip it away. He will chip it away. He'll chip it away. And you just have to be good from your weakest spot over the course of four or five hours. Now, the difference is there's not an obvious.

[C]

I was going to say what's. What's the spot? Correct.

[A]

There's not an obvious spot where that water is going to find a leak on center if he's not just missing and he's not just wild if he's dialed forehand back in. Both bad options. So I'm really curious to see what, what that chess match is. I'm curious to see if center just kind of goes stock second serve if he runs it in where they adjust with return position. But I just think the, the path to victory, the margins are slightly wider for center. Zvera.

[C]

That's good. That's good enough. Yeah.

[A]

Zverev and Ferry.

[C]

Paul Goldstein says it's a toss up.

[A]

Paul Goldstein coach Stanford.

[C]

Stanford, who made a good effort to. Flew over. He had a funny story. He said as soon as that Dimitrov match point, he's got the phone calling his travel agent. So. I know, I don't know. I mean, I think if you said, listen, we got. We got Novak Djokovic. Okay, that's, that's reasonable. We got Sinner. Well, yeah, he's defending champion, top seed. We got Zverev. All right. That's the guy who won the previous major. Second seed. And we got a guy outside the top 100 who needed a wild card. That said Ferry just seems to get better and better and he's comfortable here. He moves well. He doesn't appear. I mean, he had a six love last set he played. Yeah, I guess a really good player. Yeah, I give him a fighting chance. I mean, I think for any of a hundred reasons. Back in the back end rally, I don't know what do you. I mean, do you see a path for Ferry that.

[A]

Here's what I think. And it's a similar. It's a similar narrative that at least I had first very. About Roland Garros after Sinner went out. So all of the improvement that we've seen from Zverev on grass this tournament, right, he's laying down the chip a little bit more often. He's trying to get on the front foot, on the forehand a little bit more often. He's coming in a little bit more. All of those nuanced things, he's doing well. And his best shot against Ferry might be just cruising back to. Whereas Verav likes to play where he gets criticized for playing 6ft behind the baseline. So if you think about who fair. He's beaten. Bergs, who was playing well coming in, had a good super aggressive all the time come charging. And so Fairy can go into like that counter punch mode, right where he's. He's very good at neutralizing pace. He's very fast, but he hasn't had to go punch someone out now. He's very good at like crush and rush. He's strategic about when he is aggressive. But like against Kaboli, he. Kaboli was just trying to get aggressive and he was covering court, knocking the ball down and making Kaboli attack from maybe uncomfortable positions. Dimitrov, not a lot of defense sitting that chip. He's coming in, he's attacking. Fairy can kind of settle in and be the backboard and be the high IQ guy that he is. Kaboli going after him like was trying to control with the forehand. I actually think that Zverev can kind of settle back into this spot that he often gets criticized for a little bit easier against Fairy. And I'd be curious early on, as Verev goes. I've seen you, you've been winning on the cards.

[C]

I'm going to let you.

[A]

Can you punch me out?

[C]

That's good.

[A]

Like we. I don't know that we know that.

[C]

Right. I can be a defensive cutie also and I can hand back and be patient.

[A]

I'm the six seven and I serve

[C]

140 and I can go back in.

[A]

Yeah, correct. So. And I have a little bit more length. So I'm actually curious to see how Zverev comes out. I don't think he's going to come out and try to knock his face off. I think he's going to actually stress test some long rallies to where fairies going, oh, wait, someone's not attacking me. Like, I'm actually having to kind of.

[C]

I gotta see. Yeah, right. Be the.

[A]

Be the back. And sometimes I'm actually curious to see how this is, you know, because you think, oh, counter punches. Vero's gotta go after him. I don't necessarily think that's necessary. Like, I don't. I don't. I don't know that that's gonna be the rule for this one. You know, I think he's gonna go, okay. I'm gonna have a lot of chances on Fairy serve. He's a good. He's a good server, but he's not 6, 7, 1, 40. You know, he's. I think Zvereb's gonna be able to go back on second serves like he likes to.

[C]

Right.

[A]

If he flattens up.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I. I weirdly think he might be able to go into the spot where everyone criticizes him for going, or at least did until, you know, we're all pretending like, he played differently at the roll, at rolling Garros. He's just always been really good. He just didn't. I mean, exactly. He was just. He didn't have to match up against center.

[C]

Yeah. You know, chasing if they got too much grief when he's winning the title.

[A]

But in, like, I defended him a lot when people were like, he has to change everything. I'm like, is stroke production different? He's still better than 99% of Earth. Do you change everything? Do you? I don't know. I like. And I think he might actually be able to settle into old habits more than he had to against Fritz and more than he had to against Lehodgeka. So I'm curious to see if he kind of takes this new grass confidence thing that he's got going or he kind of reverts back. I would guess that early on we'd see a couple long rallies where he's stress testing where Fairy is at when he has to actually be the puncher.

[C]

And he'll say, fine, I'll. I'll go, I. I can be.

[A]

You want to be behind the baseline.

[C]

Exactly.

[A]

Happy to hang with you, too. I'm like, maybe the best in the world at drifting six feet back.

[C]

I love that we were talking about the number two player in the world against a guy who came in outside the top hundred. And we have this level of nuance analysis.

[A]

It's real, though. Like, I'll. I mean, I've said it before, and I probably said it yesterday on the, on the podcast, I watched so much of Fairy this tournament and I think there's been three times where I'm like, that was a bad decision. He is. He rarely makes the wrong decision. He rarely makes dumb errors. He finds the middle of the court when he's needed. When you hit pace, he firms it up, back. Like it's tough for you to kind of find ground. He moves. Watch this guy switch directions on a grass court. He'll go full run forehand turn on a dime. Normally people slip or have to take a step through and then get back. Like, his footwork on grass is phenomenal. He reads drop shots well. Like he is aware. Like the tennis IQ is never going to be the thing that. I don't think that's ever going to be a challenge for him. You know, where to make hay consistently, how to be aggressive. You know, once the ball starts jumping up, you know, you get to, you know, the summer hard court season, it's a different ball. So we're going to find out that experiment. But weirdly, I think Zverev might actually come out. I'm curious to see if he's passive or if he's like in a hurry.

[C]

Right.

[A]

I would guess that he's going to be a little bit more passive.

[C]

This is like. This is like boxing analogies.

[A]

Yes.

[C]

I also think part of working these tournaments, you can't remember who you were talking to and when you said, what, and you're on ESPN and I'm doing this 10 at some point, I thought, it's not just that he can play on grass. Fairy, his mom's a member of the club. He can play on this grass. And I think that is relevant too. I know the crowd support and all the puns and the headlines and the tabloids, I don't give a shit about that. But I think he knows this grass in particular and I think that's a real advantage.

[A]

And I'll tell you, Zverev, after he beat Fritz, you know, the crowd was kind of, you do an answer and it's that weird thing where the interviewer stands 27ft away from you.

[C]

I don't understand co.

[A]

I think if they would have done that, I would have taken the mic and I would have walked over the. To them and stood next to them like, what are we doing?

[C]

Are you cocktail party?

[A]

You do this? So he says afterwards, people are cheering. He goes, listen, goes, it was actually a good moment for him. He goes, I know all of you are going to be cheering for Fairy. He goes, I'm great with that. Like, no problem. Go ahead. Like, knock yourself out. I. I will say, like, I've been at Wimbledon trying to be the guy that shot Bambi before. Like, I played Murray here twice.

[C]

Oh, that's interesting. Right.

[A]

06, where I lost to him when I was a higher seeded player. And he was like, you know, it just finished high school. And it was like, I was devastated. And I was like, how do you lose this guy? And he's, like, one of the best players ever. And then.09.09, he was, like, the, like, favorite. Like, favorite, favorite. They were previewing that match. This crowd will cheer for their guy. They are not. The booing, whistling. This is not Roland Garros.

[C]

Right, right there.

[A]

It's. It's a hard crowd to pick a fight with, even if you're, like, the guy they're not cheering for. They are respectful, they're knowledgeable. They're not gonna. They're gonna cheer for their guy, but they're not gonna, like, boo and hecklesvarov. That's just not gonna happen. And he's gonna be. His eyes wide open. He knows what's gonna happen. Like, he's. He's been there before. The other thing is that I thought Kaboli was, like, shell shocked. Being in a quarterfinal and being an overwhelming favorite, That's a new. That's a new situation for him in a Grand Slam. I know he just made finals, but

[C]

that's gonna say it's. The second part of that expectation is hard. Right.

[A]

Zverev is not going to be phased by going into a match that he's expected to win.

[C]

Right.

[A]

He's been in that position.

[C]

Look at his draw against all the

[A]

weeks ago, four or five people. He went through Roland Garros in that position for 11 days. And I bet he woke up every morning feeling he was going to vomit. Like he's. He's dealt with that before. I don't think that's going to phase him in the same way that it phased Kaboli. Producer Mike, what else, man?

[B]

I think that's it. I think that's all. All that we got. I think, you know, you enjoyed a nice day exploring, Exploring other parts of London. You know, you saw some other little neighborhoods, which I think is kind of cool, which I kind of forget, you know, how close Wimbledon is to London as a city center.

[A]

So good. You know, I. I will tell you. And this is kind of like a home recall. Wimbledon is completely differentiated by this, like, neighborhood feel. There's no other tournament you've been hearing me talk about it, where we walked to dinner with James and Emily, like, two of our best friends, sat down, walked home, came in, did a show. You know, JW and I were at the desk, like, writing notes before we came in. Kids are watching a movie. It is just, like, the best experience ever. And I want to actually thank the hosts right there. There's, like, this whole movement at Wimbledon where people move out of their house and this tennis universe moves in circus cows. And it is just the best. It is so differentiated from anything else we do on tour. It's like we're close to the action. We get to, like, go to Gale's and Maison, and, you know, we went to the Giggly Squid tonight, and we go to all the restaurants. And you kind of feel like you're at home for a couple weeks a year. At jw, I mean, there's.

[B]

There's.

[A]

There's nothing like, you literally are living two doors down.

[C]

Your kids. Baseball almost broke our window.

[A]

That is true.

[C]

I'm kidding. But no, you go to the gym and you sign in, you're like, oh, I know him, him, him, and him. You walk around, you're wearing your clothes, flip flops, and you see all the same people that you see throughout the year just in a much different environment.

[A]

And I will tell you, just like, if you have any travel time and you're thinking about, be a host, put it up on Airbnb. It's like, thank you for all the people that have put their homes up and let us enjoy their special neighborhood, this special experience. It is something that we enjoy, we look forward to all year. It is just amazing. You all are amazing. Thank you for listening to serve. Brought to you by ServiceNow. I did it. Two cocktails and a show. We'll see you. I have my dream job, but even dream jobs have not so dreamy parts. That's where ServiceNow's AI specialists come in. They don't just tell you what to do about your busy work. They actually do it. That way your team can focus on what matters. To learn how to put AI to work for people, visit ServiceNow.com.