Sharp China with Bill Bishop: (Preview) CEWC and Bleak Economic Data; Naval Exercises Around Taiwan; New Reporting on Chip Controls; Trump’s Standing Invitation to Xi

Date: December 18, 2024
Hosts: Andrew Sharp, Bill Bishop
Episode Focus: Analysis of Trump’s recent invitation to Xi Jinping for his (potential) inauguration, implications for US-China relations, and updates on the TikTok legal battle in the US.

Episode Overview

In this preview episode, Andrew Sharp and Bill Bishop dive into two headline developments: Donald Trump’s ambiguous outreach to Chinese President Xi Jinping—inviting him to attend his inauguration—and the latest developments in the legal contest over TikTok’s US future. The hosts unravel the posturing, strategic signaling, and unpredictability of Trump’s approach to China, and break down the seismic implications of the potential TikTok ban.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Trump’s Public Invitation to Xi Jinping (00:05–07:28)

• Trump’s Take on Xi:
  Trump gives a meandering answer about whether Xi Jinping would attend his inauguration, asserting a positive relationship mostly through “letters” and underscoring Xi’s personal qualities:

  • Notable Quote (Trump, 00:39):
    “He was a friend of mine. I mean, he was here for a long time right in that spot, except sitting in a very comfortable chair... He's an amazing guy.”
  • Trump claims open lines of communication with Xi, but most contact seems written rather than direct.

• Host Analysis:

  • Bill Bishop (02:24, 02:55):
    Dissects Trump’s language, highlighting how the “grand bargain” (G2) framing echoes common PRC (Chinese) talking points about collaborative global leadership.
    • “The language that China and the United States can together solve all the problems in the world... fits with how the Chinese talk about the relationship.”
  • Both hosts doubt Xi would actually appear at the inauguration. Bill emphasizes that even the Chinese side is likely confused by Trump’s approach—wondering if Trump is serious about a new sort of US-China arrangement, or just improvising.
  • Andrew Sharp (02:51):
    “It's sort of an echo of PRC messaging.”

• Strategic Value of the Invitation:

  • Bill (06:41):
    Suggests Trump’s invitation has tactical foresight—it makes Trump seem magnanimous regardless of Xi's response, while putting China on the diplomatic defensive.
    • “If there's no downside for Trump, I think it's actually pretty smart because he looks magnanimous. He invited Xi.”
    • If Xi declines, Trump can claim the moral high ground: “Well, I invited him... I made an offer.”
  • The invitation centers the narrative on Trump, not Xi.
  • Andrew (07:21):
    “That's what I enjoy about it. It does put [China] on the back foot.”

• Team Dynamics & Policy Uncertainty:

  • Trump’s staff is rife with internal competition and unpredictability. Bill highlights that Trump historically prefers to allow in-fighting among advisors and then makes decisions himself (05:08).
  • Andrew (05:43):
    “He also likes having world leaders off balance and unsure of what direction [he’ll take].”

• Tariffs as the Most Predictable Policy Shift:

  • Bill hedges that while most Trump policy is unpredictable, significant tariffs on China are a very real likelihood (05:49–06:09).

2. The State of TikTok in the US – Legal Battle and Uncertainty (07:28–13:22)

• TikTok’s Legal Moves:

  • TikTok has appealed to the Supreme Court for an emergency injunction to prevent enforcement of the US law forcing its sale or shutdown (07:28).
  • They request a decision by January 6 to prepare for possible US shutdowns.
  • To win a temporary injunction, TikTok must show it is likely to succeed on the law’s merits, will suffer irreparable harm otherwise, and that the government would suffer minimal burden.

• Chance of Success?:

  • Andrew doubts TikTok’s likelihood of success, especially since the DC Circuit’s ruling was comprehensive (07:55).
  • Bill notes their last hope (if the appeal fails) is a 90-day extension from the Biden administration, which seems unlikely due to the political climate (09:10–09:43).

• Economic & Personal Impact:

  • Andrew (10:35):
    Underlines how a TikTok shutdown would be “a seismic disruption to the online economy.”
    • Many users, especially creators, are only starting to hedge by diversifying to other platforms. Advertisers are cautious about 2025 budgets given the legal limbo (11:13–11:41).
  • Bill stresses the corrosiveness of ongoing uncertainty for the platform’s business.

• What Happens if Trump Returns?:

  • It would not be a simple executive decision for Trump to reverse a ban—there’s an interagency process to re-certify TikTok, so a quick reversal is “not possible” (11:41–12:08).

• The Supreme Court’s Likely Reluctance:

  • Andrew (12:08–13:19):
    Suggests the Supreme Court is unlikely to tackle the broad First Amendment and Section 230 implications raised by the TikTok case. Even rhetorically compelling arguments (e.g., both presidential campaigns used TikTok) may not overcome congressional national security concerns.
    • “It involves complex constitutional questions about whether TikTok's algorithm constitutes speech... and I don't know if the court is ready to address that.”

• Final Thoughts:

  • Both hosts agree that the fate of TikTok and coherence of US-China policy hinge on many unknowns, pending court decisions, and the unpredictability of a future Trump administration.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump, on Xi and U.S.-China Cooperation (00:39):

  “China and the United States can together solve all of the problems of the world, if you think about it. So it's very important.”

• Bill Bishop, on Strategic Signaling (06:41):

  “If there's no downside for Trump, I think it's actually pretty smart because he looks magnanimous. He invited Xi.”

• Andrew Sharp, on the Uncertainty of Trump’s Posture (05:08):

  “I kind of enjoy that China probably also has no idea what to make of any of it.”

• Bill Bishop, on Why Predicting Policy Is Futile (05:08):

  “He likes the infighting. He wants them to argue in front of each other, and then he makes the decision... That makes it really hard to sort of come up with, oh, this is all that, you know, Trump's gonna do X, Y and Z around China because it isn't. I don't think it's a done deal yet.”

• Andrew Sharp, characterizing the TikTok Ban’s Impact (10:35):

  “It will be a seismic disruption to the online economy.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:05–02:24 – Trump’s ambiguous stance on inviting Xi and personal relationship recap
• 02:24–03:12 – Analysis of Trump's PRC-style messaging and speculation on a “grand bargain”
• 03:46–06:09 – Reality check: staff unpredictability, Silicon Valley’s national security priorities, expectations for tariffs
• 06:41–07:28 – Tactical savvy behind Trump’s invitation, implications for both leaders
• 07:28–09:55 – TikTok’s legal strategy, odds in Supreme Court, and potential political maneuvering
• 10:14–12:08 – Broader business ramifications, creators and advertisers bracing for disruption, challenges in reversing a ban
• 12:08–13:22 – Supreme Court’s reluctance to address algorithm-as-speech, constitutional, and policy complexities

Tone & Takeaways

The conversation is candid, wry, and often amused at the unpredictability and ambiguity in both Trump’s diplomacy and the TikTok saga. The hosts strike a balance between incisive policy analysis (especially from Bill) and observational humor (mostly Andrew), concluding that both Chinese leaders and American businesses are, like the rest of us, waiting for clearer signals from Washington.

For listeners and policy-watchers, the episode underscores:

• The intentional ambiguity and unpredictability characteristic of Trump’s China strategy
• How both sides use grand gestures (like public invitations) for strategic effect
• The immense legal and economic uncertainties hanging over TikTok in the US, with broader implications for tech policy and US-China relations

End of Summary