(Preview) Operation Joint Sword 2024B; The Latest on the "Stimulus"; US Presidential Election Follow-Up; Two Pandas Fly to D.C.

Summary

Sharp China with Bill Bishop

(Preview) Operation Joint Sword 2024B; The Latest on the "Stimulus"; US Presidential Election Follow-Up; Two Pandas Fly to D.C.

Date: October 16, 2024
Hosts: Andrew Sharp & Bill Bishop (plus guests)

---

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode opens with lively discussion centered on the return of giant pandas to the National Zoo in Washington, D.C.—a moment used to reflect on U.S.–China soft power diplomacy and public sentiment. The conversation then shifts to the more serious update on Operation Joint Sword 2024B, the latest show of force by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwan’s National Day speech. Throughout, the hosts provide keen observations on how these events impact U.S.–China relations and regional stability, with their characteristic mix of analysis and wit.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Panda Diplomacy: Two Pandas Arrive in D.C.

• Breaking Panda News
  The hosts start with excitement over the arrival of two new pandas (Qing Bao and Bao Li) from China to the National Zoo.
  • "The pandas... just arrived at the D.C., the National Zoo in D.C. like an hour ago." [01:00 – Andrew Sharp]
  • The zoo is closed for now as the pandas undergo a 30-day quarantine before their public debut.
  • The panda program is described as a deliberate, soft-power initiative by China—a "Panda stimulus for U.S.-China Relations." [02:32 – Andrew Sharp]
  • The hosts note the zoo’s extensive infrastructure and the abundance of panda-themed decor, with some locals unaware the pandas had even left:
    • "There's a lot of panda paraphernalia, you know, lining the streets and halls over there." [03:21 – Guest]
  • The episode also touches on a timely New York Times story questioning China’s panda population count and conservation methods, contrasting it with local excitement in D.C.
  • Discussion of China's “virtual panda” program for classrooms, further highlighting the country’s adept soft-power deployment:
    • "It's a genuine soft power effort around the world... given how much... the PRC side was talking about... reinforcing people-to-people exchanges." [05:35 – Andrew Sharp]
  • Revealed that one of the pandas is a "Nepo panda," the descendant of one of the original pandas in the U.S.:
    • "Apparently one of the pandas is a Nepo panda. I think it's the granddaughter or grandson of one of the original pandas here." [06:09 – Andrew Sharp]

2. Operation Joint Sword 2024B: PLA Drills in the Taiwan Strait

• Background & Context
  The segment shifts to Operation Joint Sword 2024B, a new round of PLA military exercises around Taiwan following the island's National Day and President William Lai’s speech.
  • "We mentioned last week... after William Lai's inauguration as Taiwan's new president, there was a chance that Lai's speech for Taiwan National Day could inspire a 2024B. And sure enough, it did." [06:23 – Andrew Sharp]
• U.S. and Chinese Perspectives
  The hosts review the U.S. State Department’s formal, concerned response, noting that the Chinese response seems predetermined regardless of Taiwan’s actions.
  • Read U.S. statement:
    • "The PRC response, with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation." [06:58 – Andrew Sharp]
    • “We call on the PRC to act with restraint and to avoid any further actions that may undermine peace and stability…” [07:20 – Andrew Sharp]
• Nature of the Drills & Strategic Implications
  • The drills lasted one day and avoided overt escalation (no missiles or drone overflights), but emphasized joint combat, blockade simulations, and rapid force mobilization.
    • “It reinforces some folks who say, you know, look, the message really is it doesn't matter what Lai does. The Chinese are going to... find a pretext whenever they wanted to make a point.” [08:56 – Andrew Sharp]
  • PLA’s normalization of aggressive maneuvers is worrisome:
    • “Even though this was a one day drill… they're practicing blockading and invading the island.” [09:35 – Andrew Sharp]
    • “It's a normalization of their ability to very quickly put all sorts of assets around the island.” [09:36 – Andrew Sharp]
• Normalization and Risks
  • The hosts reflect on the risk of public and policymaker “numbness” to PLA maneuvers as these become routine.
    • “Back in August of 2022, the drills around Pelosi were a big deal... Now this time it's like, yeah, whatever, no big deal. And people in Taiwan are like, yeah, no big deal.” [12:35 – Andrew Sharp]
    • "You don't want to overreact. You don't want to have your hair on fire. But at the same time... I think it's very dangerous for people to just dismiss it. Yeah, no big deal. They're practicing to invade the island or blockade it." [12:48 – Andrew Sharp]
  • The exercises provide the PLA with practical rehearsal for scenarios such as embargoes, raising the risk of unintended incidents or escalation.
    • "These exercises also give the PLA a chance to rehearse plans for any sort of embargo. And obviously, the further they push the boundaries, the more it increases the risk of an accident and a true escalation." [10:56 – Guest]
• Memorable Position Statement
  • The hosts agree that the idea “they had to do something” is dangerous to accept at face value, and quote a U.S. lawmaker:
    • “It's provocative behavior, it's senseless, and it's dangerous because it could escalate into unintended catastrophic consequences, and they need to stop.” [13:34 – Unknown Female Guest quoting Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthy]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Panda Diplomacy:
  • "I'm calling it the Panda stimulus for US China Relations." [02:32 – Andrew Sharp]
  • "It's a genuine soft power effort around the world." [05:35 – Andrew Sharp]
• On PLA Exercises:
  • “They're practicing blockading and invading the island.” [09:35 – Andrew Sharp]
  • "It's a normalization of their ability to very quickly put all sorts of assets around the island." [09:36 – Andrew Sharp]
  • “You can't lose sight of that and just sort of say, oh, yeah, they had to do something. It's no big deal... You have to remember the reality of what it is they're signaling.” [13:01 – Andrew Sharp]
  • “These exercises are completely unacceptable and a risk to regional and international stability.” [13:34 – Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthy via Guest]

---

Key Timestamps for Segments

• Panda arrival discussion and soft power implications: 00:27–06:13
• Operation Joint Sword 2024B context and PLA exercises: 06:23–13:34

---

Takeaways

• The return of pandas to D.C. is both a moment of local excitement and a broader sign of stabilized U.S.–China people-to-people ties, with China effectively leveraging soft power.
• Operation Joint Sword 2024B, while not dramatically escalatory, demonstrates the PLA’s routine normalization of force projection against Taiwan. This, the hosts warn, carries significant strategic risks if observers become inured to PLA maneuvers.
• The episode captures the precarious balance between not overreacting to Chinese military moves and not dismissing their long-term intent and capability. The dangers of complacency in regional security are emphasized with references to recent political, military, and diplomatic events.

---

For further details and full episodes, listeners are invited to subscribe to Sinocism or the Stratechery Bundle.

Transcript

[Andrew Sharp]

Foreign.

[Bill Bishop]

Welcome to Sharp China. I'm Andrew Sharp and you are listening to a free preview of today's episode.

[Andrew Sharp]

Hello and welcome back to another episode of Sharp China. I'm Andrew Sharp and on the other line, Bill Bishop. Bill, how you doing?

Hello. I am fantastic.

[Unknown Male Guest]

Oh, fantastic.

[Andrew Sharp]

Yes.

[Unknown Male Guest]

Well, it's a beautiful week in dc. I didn't come prepared with pandas, the.

[Unknown Female Guest]

Pun, so I can't match your energy there, but I love it.

[Unknown Male Guest]

Pandemonium across the board here at our nation's capital.

[Andrew Sharp]

Apparently the pandas, it was like a, it was like a kind of like they're doing with whatever stimulus and no stimulus where they didn't announce it. And all of a sudden like the pandas are in the air out of.

Nowhere, out of nowhere.

And now apparently they have actually just arrived at the dc, the National Zoo in DC like an hour ago. The zoo, the zoo is closed today. We unfortunately we couldn't go there and do a live on the spot podcast.

[Unknown Male Guest]

Oh, that's and arrival. It's a good idea for their debut. Look for anybody who missed it. We were in fact hit with breaking news this week.

[Andrew Sharp]

I'll read from the Washington Post. I'll clear my throat here. After an 8,000 mile journey from China, Washington's two new giant pandas landed at Dulles International Airport on Tuesday to continue a conservation program at the National Zoo that goes back more than half a century. Just under A year after DC's last giant pandas left for China, Qing Bao, a three year old female, and Bao Li, a three year old male, arrived in Virginia around 10am Tuesday. They traveled from Chengdu, China and made a stop in Anchorage. The pandas will be quarantined in the panda house for a minimum of 30 days to reduce the risk of introducing parasites or disease to other animals. Then they'll have more quiet time to get used to their new habitat. Their public debut will take place when the zoo believes they are ready to greet the masses. So we don't have a specific date yet for the Sharp China Live podcast at the National Zoo, but sometime in the near future.

Yeah.

One year later, the pandas are back.

[Unknown Female Guest]

At the National Zoo.

[Andrew Sharp]

Everyone can rest easy. That's what's most important here. Relations have stabilized in at least one area between the United States and China.

I'm calling it the Panda stimulus for US China Relations.

That's right. And we'll take this, you know, you.

Know, people to people, panda to people, whatever works. Right. I think it's interesting in all seriousness, right. Because when they left the zoo kept saying, we think they're coming back, but nothing was announced. And then they. But they did raise a bunch of money and redo the panda house, I think.

Oh, yeah, I mean, you mentioned that left. Last time I was at the zoo.

[Unknown Female Guest]

I was amazed by how much panda infrastructure there is at the zoo. So I'm glad there will be actual live pandas at the center of the.

[Andrew Sharp]

Panda kingdom they've constructed over there.

One of the local TV stations, I think it was WSA last night had a. Of course, you know, it's the top of the news here on like the six o' clock broadcast. And they. But they went to the zoo and they realized that a bunch of people didn't know pandas had actually left because there's just so much panda stuff.

[Unknown Male Guest]

There's a lot of panda paraphernalia, you know, lining the streets and halls over there.

[Andrew Sharp]

But in any event, we had to start there. Number one, because it's good news. Number two, because I had like seven.

[Unknown Female Guest]

Listeners of Sharp China text me the news.

[Andrew Sharp]

So very exciting across emergency panda pod, which I think would have been a. Would have been a step too far.

Well, it would have been a short podcast.

[Unknown Female Guest]

I don't have that much to say.

[Unknown Male Guest]

About the pandas arriving at dc.

[Andrew Sharp]

You may not have seen it, but, you know, bless the New York Times because they just can't ever inject positive energy and they must have had this story in the can so today. Right. You know, again, we didn't know until less than 24 hours ago that the pandas were arriving today. It was sort of the top secret panda mission. The New York Times today has a long story on China counts wild pandas. Nobody believes it's tallied. It goes on about questioning the PRC's methodology for counting the number of wild pandas because pandas in the wild, because the PRC has said they've restored the population, it goes on to criticize, sort of like some of the artificial insemination programs, etc. So it was perfectly timed for, what is it? Ching Bao and Bali's arrival.

Yeah, well, listen, if people are interested in learning more about the allegations, we.

[Unknown Female Guest]

Can include that link in the show notes.

[Andrew Sharp]

But I'm choosing to go glass half full on this particular episode with the panda program.

And I will say what's interesting on the panda program, and it is actually, in all seriousness, you know, it is an interesting. It makes sense that they would ship them to the US Fairly quickly because it is a big part of the people to people US China efforts underway. Or redoubled efforts underway. One of the things that the Chinese have been doing as well as they've also have a program where they allow schools to have a virtual panda. Like a. It's not a virtual panda, but a zoom pen where classrooms can have a panda that they check in on a regular basis, talk with a zookeeper. And I think it's smart on the Chinese side because they can have the same panic and service, you know, hundreds or more of classrooms, and every classroom thinks we've got our panda. Right. But it's also, you know, XYZ schools panda too. But it's an interesting effort.

[Unknown Female Guest]

I mean, it's a genuine soft power effort.

[Andrew Sharp]

No, exactly. It's a genuine soft power effort around the world. And then I think given how much, you know, coming out of. It's hard to believe it's almost been a year, but coming out of the Woodside Summit last year in this, what the PRC side was talking about, this, the San Francisco vision, and one of the planks of that is reinforcing people to people exchanges. You know, pandas are not people, obviously, but it's part of that whole effort. And so I think it is very important that they moved fairly quickly to get a new set of pandas here. And apparently one of the pandas is a Nepo panda.

[Bill Bishop]

Oh, really?

[Andrew Sharp]

I think it's the granddaughter or grandson of one of the original pandas here.

Interesting.

[Unknown Female Guest]

Okay.

[Andrew Sharp]

It's. I mean, you know, it's. It's an elitist structure.

[Unknown Male Guest]

Right, where the.

[Andrew Sharp]

The only.

[Unknown Male Guest]

The elite gets a study in the United States.

[Andrew Sharp]

Yes. Well, on that note, we will shift to other news this week. We mentioned last week that in the wake of Operation Joint Sword 2024A, which came in May after William Lai's inauguration as Taiwan's new president, there was a chance that Lai's speech for Taiwan National Day could inspire a 2024B. And sure enough, it did. And those exercises unfolded on Monday in the Taiwan Strait. The State Department said this week that.

[Unknown Female Guest]

The United States is seriously concerned by.

[Andrew Sharp]

The People's Liberation army joint military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan. The PRC response, with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation. We call on the PRC to act with restraint and to avoid any further actions that may undermine peace and stability.

[Bill Bishop]

Across the Taiwan Strait and in the.

[Andrew Sharp]

Broader region, which is essential to regional peace and prosperity and a matter of international concern. I see no lies in that statement. But going bigger picture, it seems like all things Considered these drills weren't terribly dramatic and might have been the best we could have hoped for from a 2024 B operation.

[Unknown Female Guest]

What do you think?

[Andrew Sharp]

Was there anything particularly noteworthy that jumped out at you from the exercises?

So the drills themselves, it was only one day shorter than the A variant.

Mm.

And you know, they didn't do anything particularly provocative, provocative or escalatory like, you know, shooting a missile over the island or any of the outlying islands or flying drones over any of the outlying islands. So I think from Beijing's perspective, they had to do something. They had to react to William Lai's speech. One of the challenges is that I think on the Taiwanese side and certainly on the US side, there was this belief that Lai's speech really was a nothing burger. He didn't say anything he hasn't said before. In fact, it was in, you know, I think at least on the US side, I think there was a belief that in some ways it was even more acceptable or not acceptable, but less, less potentially inflammatory from the Beijing perspective than even his inauguration speech in May. And yet they still had to do these exercises. And so it reinforces some folks who say, you know, look, the message really is it doesn't matter what Lai does. The Chinese are going to use, use, find a pretext whenever they wanted to make a point.

[Unknown Female Guest]

Yeah.

[Andrew Sharp]

And, and the point they were making I think really with this exercise is, you know, when you go back to what they said for the exercise they fought, the drills focused on joint sea air combat readiness control, the blockaded control of key ports and areas, strikes on sea and land targets, and the seizure of comprehensive battlefield control so as to test the joint real combat capabilities of the forces of the command. So even though this was a one day drill, even though it wasn't potentially, it didn't include things that could have been seen as more provocative. They're practicing blockading and invading the island.

Yeah, yeah, right.

And so in some ways, in some ways it's a norm. They're normalizing that whole process. Right. And you know, this was, there was no advanced notice. They announced it. I think I saw it. I think it was 5:30 in the morning on Monday. We're having drills today. The drill started and then they were done that day. And so it's, it's a normalization of their ability to very quickly put all sorts of assets around the island. And you know, they did it. They, if you look at the map of the different drills over since 2000, do the three big drills in 2022, you know, they Basically fully surrounded the island this time. I think they sent coast guard. They had different groups of coast guard ships that went around. You know, we sort of encircled the island. And so, I mean, this is useful for them in the sense that they are practicing what they would need to do in the event of either some sort of a blockade or a quarantine or an invasion. But also they're showing very clearly they can mobilize quite quickly. And so one of the challenges as they continue with these. These drills and the regular sort of flights around Taiwan and ships going around Taiwan, and it's just that it blurs the line between it's a drill or. Or then they can actually very quickly flip into doing something real.

Yeah, yeah.

[Unknown Female Guest]

I mean, it's interesting because independent of anything that William Lai said, it's clear.

[Andrew Sharp]

That these drills serve a strategic purpose for the pla.

[Unknown Female Guest]

And it's why I'm reluctant to react to any of these exercises as if they're unremarkable, because as you say, one of the aspects that's ominous is that this behavior just becomes normalized over time. And obviously, Taiwan shouldn't have to tolerate biannual military exercises merely because it, you know, has the audacity to exist as a democracy. But these exercises also give the PLA a chance to rehearse plans for any sort of embargo. And obviously, the further they push the boundaries, the more it increases the risk of an accident and a true escalation. But I also wondered about the aspect you mentioned at the end there, whether years of these exercises will make it more difficult to tell when the PRC really is escalating into an embargo situation.

[Andrew Sharp]

I think. Absolutely. And I think that is certainly part of the goal here.

Right.

I do think it's likely that, you know, this exercise was a long plan and they were just waiting for the pretext. And who knows, maybe back in May after that, you know, joint sort, 2024 A, maybe they already said, okay, here are the plans for B, and we're going to roll it out. You know, if there's no. Nothing else happens between now and October 10th, the Republic of China National Day, we'll roll it out after the national day that. The 1010 speech. And so. But. But again, it just sort of numbs people. Where back In August of 2022, the drills around Pelosi were a big deal. And I think some markets, investors got a little. The ones this year after the inauguration speech. Now this time it's like, yeah, whatever, no big deal. And people in Taiwan are like, yeah, no big deal.

[Unknown Female Guest]

I was going to say, even people in Taiwan appear sort of inured to the stakes of any of this because.

[Andrew Sharp]

It happens so frequently.

You don't want to overreact. You don't want to have your hair on fire. But at the same time, I think it's very dangerous for people to just dismiss it. Yeah, no big deal. They just had to do something. They're practicing to invade the island or blockade it.

[Unknown Female Guest]

No kidding.

[Andrew Sharp]

Yeah, deadly serious. This is what they're practicing. And they're getting better at their practicing. They're involving more, you know, more joint forces. They got the Coast Guard more involved. Now they are really working through what it would take for them to make a very serious. Take a very serious action against Taiwan. And so I think you can't. You can't lose sight of that and just sort of say, oh, yeah, they had to do something. It's no big deal. They got this crazy propaganda. You know, they're just having a tantrum. You can say all that, but you have to remember the reality of what it is they're signaling.

Right.

[Unknown Female Guest]

And the idea that they had to do something is itself absurd. And I remembered that back in May, Representative Raja Krishnamoorthy, who we interviewed this summer, he was talking to Semaphore back in May after joint sword 2024 a and said Beijing was having a temper tantrum that could touch off a crisis. And he said, it's provocative behavior, it's senseless, and it's dangerous because it could escalate into unintended catastrophic consequences, and they need to stop. All of these exercises are completely unacceptable and a risk to regional and international stability. So there's not that much more to say than that. But it is important to say that, for the record, in the wake of something like this.

[Andrew Sharp]

All right, and that is the end.

[Bill Bishop]

Of the free preview. If you'd like to hear the rest of today's conversation and get access to full episodes of Sharp China each week.

[Andrew Sharp]

You can go to your Show Notes.

[Bill Bishop]

And subscribe to either Bill's newsletter, Cynicism, or the Stratechri Bundle, which includes several other podcasts from me and daily writing from my friend Ben Thompson. I'm an incredibly biased news consumer, so I think both are indispensable resources. But either way, Bill and I are.

[Andrew Sharp]

Going to be here every week talking.

[Bill Bishop]

All things China, and we would love.

[Andrew Sharp]

To have you on board.

[Bill Bishop]

So check out your Show Notes. So subscribe, and we will talk to you soon.