Sharp China with Bill Bishop

(Preview) Operation Joint Sword 2024B; The Latest on the "Stimulus"; US Presidential Election Follow-Up; Two Pandas Fly to D.C.

Date: October 16, 2024
Hosts: Andrew Sharp & Bill Bishop (plus guests)

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode opens with lively discussion centered on the return of giant pandas to the National Zoo in Washington, D.C.—a moment used to reflect on U.S.–China soft power diplomacy and public sentiment. The conversation then shifts to the more serious update on Operation Joint Sword 2024B, the latest show of force by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwan’s National Day speech. Throughout, the hosts provide keen observations on how these events impact U.S.–China relations and regional stability, with their characteristic mix of analysis and wit.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Panda Diplomacy: Two Pandas Arrive in D.C.

• Breaking Panda News
  The hosts start with excitement over the arrival of two new pandas (Qing Bao and Bao Li) from China to the National Zoo.
  • "The pandas... just arrived at the D.C., the National Zoo in D.C. like an hour ago." [01:00 – Andrew Sharp]
  • The zoo is closed for now as the pandas undergo a 30-day quarantine before their public debut.
  • The panda program is described as a deliberate, soft-power initiative by China—a "Panda stimulus for U.S.-China Relations." [02:32 – Andrew Sharp]
  • The hosts note the zoo’s extensive infrastructure and the abundance of panda-themed decor, with some locals unaware the pandas had even left:
    • "There's a lot of panda paraphernalia, you know, lining the streets and halls over there." [03:21 – Guest]
  • The episode also touches on a timely New York Times story questioning China’s panda population count and conservation methods, contrasting it with local excitement in D.C.
  • Discussion of China's “virtual panda” program for classrooms, further highlighting the country’s adept soft-power deployment:
    • "It's a genuine soft power effort around the world... given how much... the PRC side was talking about... reinforcing people-to-people exchanges." [05:35 – Andrew Sharp]
  • Revealed that one of the pandas is a "Nepo panda," the descendant of one of the original pandas in the U.S.:
    • "Apparently one of the pandas is a Nepo panda. I think it's the granddaughter or grandson of one of the original pandas here." [06:09 – Andrew Sharp]

2. Operation Joint Sword 2024B: PLA Drills in the Taiwan Strait

• Background & Context
  The segment shifts to Operation Joint Sword 2024B, a new round of PLA military exercises around Taiwan following the island's National Day and President William Lai’s speech.
  • "We mentioned last week... after William Lai's inauguration as Taiwan's new president, there was a chance that Lai's speech for Taiwan National Day could inspire a 2024B. And sure enough, it did." [06:23 – Andrew Sharp]
• U.S. and Chinese Perspectives
  The hosts review the U.S. State Department’s formal, concerned response, noting that the Chinese response seems predetermined regardless of Taiwan’s actions.
  • Read U.S. statement:
    • "The PRC response, with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation." [06:58 – Andrew Sharp]
    • “We call on the PRC to act with restraint and to avoid any further actions that may undermine peace and stability…” [07:20 – Andrew Sharp]
• Nature of the Drills & Strategic Implications
  • The drills lasted one day and avoided overt escalation (no missiles or drone overflights), but emphasized joint combat, blockade simulations, and rapid force mobilization.
    • “It reinforces some folks who say, you know, look, the message really is it doesn't matter what Lai does. The Chinese are going to... find a pretext whenever they wanted to make a point.” [08:56 – Andrew Sharp]
  • PLA’s normalization of aggressive maneuvers is worrisome:
    • “Even though this was a one day drill… they're practicing blockading and invading the island.” [09:35 – Andrew Sharp]
    • “It's a normalization of their ability to very quickly put all sorts of assets around the island.” [09:36 – Andrew Sharp]
• Normalization and Risks
  • The hosts reflect on the risk of public and policymaker “numbness” to PLA maneuvers as these become routine.
    • “Back in August of 2022, the drills around Pelosi were a big deal... Now this time it's like, yeah, whatever, no big deal. And people in Taiwan are like, yeah, no big deal.” [12:35 – Andrew Sharp]
    • "You don't want to overreact. You don't want to have your hair on fire. But at the same time... I think it's very dangerous for people to just dismiss it. Yeah, no big deal. They're practicing to invade the island or blockade it." [12:48 – Andrew Sharp]
  • The exercises provide the PLA with practical rehearsal for scenarios such as embargoes, raising the risk of unintended incidents or escalation.
    • "These exercises also give the PLA a chance to rehearse plans for any sort of embargo. And obviously, the further they push the boundaries, the more it increases the risk of an accident and a true escalation." [10:56 – Guest]
• Memorable Position Statement
  • The hosts agree that the idea “they had to do something” is dangerous to accept at face value, and quote a U.S. lawmaker:
    • “It's provocative behavior, it's senseless, and it's dangerous because it could escalate into unintended catastrophic consequences, and they need to stop.” [13:34 – Unknown Female Guest quoting Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthy]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Panda Diplomacy:
  • "I'm calling it the Panda stimulus for US China Relations." [02:32 – Andrew Sharp]
  • "It's a genuine soft power effort around the world." [05:35 – Andrew Sharp]
• On PLA Exercises:
  • “They're practicing blockading and invading the island.” [09:35 – Andrew Sharp]
  • "It's a normalization of their ability to very quickly put all sorts of assets around the island." [09:36 – Andrew Sharp]
  • “You can't lose sight of that and just sort of say, oh, yeah, they had to do something. It's no big deal... You have to remember the reality of what it is they're signaling.” [13:01 – Andrew Sharp]
  • “These exercises are completely unacceptable and a risk to regional and international stability.” [13:34 – Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthy via Guest]

Key Timestamps for Segments

• Panda arrival discussion and soft power implications: 00:27–06:13
• Operation Joint Sword 2024B context and PLA exercises: 06:23–13:34

Takeaways

• The return of pandas to D.C. is both a moment of local excitement and a broader sign of stabilized U.S.–China people-to-people ties, with China effectively leveraging soft power.
• Operation Joint Sword 2024B, while not dramatically escalatory, demonstrates the PLA’s routine normalization of force projection against Taiwan. This, the hosts warn, carries significant strategic risks if observers become inured to PLA maneuvers.
• The episode captures the precarious balance between not overreacting to Chinese military moves and not dismissing their long-term intent and capability. The dangers of complacency in regional security are emphasized with references to recent political, military, and diplomatic events.

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