Andrew Sharp (2:19)

Yeah.

Andrew Sharp (2:20)

One year later, the pandas are back.

Unknown Female Guest (2:21)

At the National Zoo.

Andrew Sharp (2:23)

Everyone can rest easy. That's what's most important here. Relations have stabilized in at least one area between the United States and China.

Andrew Sharp (2:32)

I'm calling it the Panda stimulus for US China Relations.

Andrew Sharp (2:34)

That's right. And we'll take this, you know, you.

Andrew Sharp (2:37)

Know, people to people, panda to people, whatever works. Right. I think it's interesting in all seriousness, right. Because when they left the zoo kept saying, we think they're coming back, but nothing was announced. And then they. But they did raise a bunch of money and redo the panda house, I think.

Andrew Sharp (2:51)

Oh, yeah, I mean, you mentioned that left. Last time I was at the zoo.

Unknown Female Guest (2:56)

I was amazed by how much panda infrastructure there is at the zoo. So I'm glad there will be actual live pandas at the center of the.

Andrew Sharp (3:04)

Panda kingdom they've constructed over there.

Andrew Sharp (3:07)

One of the local TV stations, I think it was WSA last night had a. Of course, you know, it's the top of the news here on like the six o' clock broadcast. And they. But they went to the zoo and they realized that a bunch of people didn't know pandas had actually left because there's just so much panda stuff.

Unknown Male Guest (3:21)

There's a lot of panda paraphernalia, you know, lining the streets and halls over there.

Andrew Sharp (3:27)

But in any event, we had to start there. Number one, because it's good news. Number two, because I had like seven.

Unknown Female Guest (3:34)

Listeners of Sharp China text me the news.

Andrew Sharp (3:37)

So very exciting across emergency panda pod, which I think would have been a. Would have been a step too far.

Andrew Sharp (3:44)

Well, it would have been a short podcast.

Unknown Female Guest (3:46)

I don't have that much to say.

Unknown Male Guest (3:47)

About the pandas arriving at dc.

Andrew Sharp (3:50)

You may not have seen it, but, you know, bless the New York Times because they just can't ever inject positive energy and they must have had this story in the can so today. Right. You know, again, we didn't know until less than 24 hours ago that the pandas were arriving today. It was sort of the top secret panda mission. The New York Times today has a long story on China counts wild pandas. Nobody believes it's tallied. It goes on about questioning the PRC's methodology for counting the number of wild pandas because pandas in the wild, because the PRC has said they've restored the population, it goes on to criticize, sort of like some of the artificial insemination programs, etc. So it was perfectly timed for, what is it? Ching Bao and Bali's arrival.

Andrew Sharp (4:33)

Yeah, well, listen, if people are interested in learning more about the allegations, we.

Unknown Female Guest (4:39)

Can include that link in the show notes.

Andrew Sharp (4:41)

But I'm choosing to go glass half full on this particular episode with the panda program.

Andrew Sharp (4:47)

And I will say what's interesting on the panda program, and it is actually, in all seriousness, you know, it is an interesting. It makes sense that they would ship them to the US Fairly quickly because it is a big part of the people to people US China efforts underway. Or redoubled efforts underway. One of the things that the Chinese have been doing as well as they've also have a program where they allow schools to have a virtual panda. Like a. It's not a virtual panda, but a zoom pen where classrooms can have a panda that they check in on a regular basis, talk with a zookeeper. And I think it's smart on the Chinese side because they can have the same panic and service, you know, hundreds or more of classrooms, and every classroom thinks we've got our panda. Right. But it's also, you know, XYZ schools panda too. But it's an interesting effort.

Unknown Female Guest (5:33)

I mean, it's a genuine soft power effort.

Andrew Sharp (5:35)

No, exactly. It's a genuine soft power effort around the world. And then I think given how much, you know, coming out of. It's hard to believe it's almost been a year, but coming out of the Woodside Summit last year in this, what the PRC side was talking about, this, the San Francisco vision, and one of the planks of that is reinforcing people to people exchanges. You know, pandas are not people, obviously, but it's part of that whole effort. And so I think it is very important that they moved fairly quickly to get a new set of pandas here. And apparently one of the pandas is a Nepo panda.

Bill Bishop (6:08)

Oh, really?

Andrew Sharp (6:09)

I think it's the granddaughter or grandson of one of the original pandas here.

Andrew Sharp (6:12)

Interesting.

Unknown Female Guest (6:13)

Okay.

Andrew Sharp (6:13)

It's. I mean, you know, it's. It's an elitist structure.

Unknown Male Guest (6:16)

Right, where the.

Andrew Sharp (6:19)

The only.

Unknown Male Guest (6:19)

The elite gets a study in the United States.

Andrew Sharp (6:23)

Yes. Well, on that note, we will shift to other news this week. We mentioned last week that in the wake of Operation Joint Sword 2024A, which came in May after William Lai's inauguration as Taiwan's new president, there was a chance that Lai's speech for Taiwan National Day could inspire a 2024B. And sure enough, it did. And those exercises unfolded on Monday in the Taiwan Strait. The State Department said this week that.

Unknown Female Guest (6:55)

The United States is seriously concerned by.

Andrew Sharp (6:58)

The People's Liberation army joint military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan. The PRC response, with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation. We call on the PRC to act with restraint and to avoid any further actions that may undermine peace and stability.

Bill Bishop (7:20)

Across the Taiwan Strait and in the.

Andrew Sharp (7:22)

Broader region, which is essential to regional peace and prosperity and a matter of international concern. I see no lies in that statement. But going bigger picture, it seems like all things Considered these drills weren't terribly dramatic and might have been the best we could have hoped for from a 2024 B operation.

Unknown Female Guest (7:45)

What do you think?

Andrew Sharp (7:46)

Was there anything particularly noteworthy that jumped out at you from the exercises?

Andrew Sharp (7:51)

So the drills themselves, it was only one day shorter than the A variant.

Andrew Sharp (7:56)

Mm.

Andrew Sharp (7:56)

And you know, they didn't do anything particularly provocative, provocative or escalatory like, you know, shooting a missile over the island or any of the outlying islands or flying drones over any of the outlying islands. So I think from Beijing's perspective, they had to do something. They had to react to William Lai's speech. One of the challenges is that I think on the Taiwanese side and certainly on the US side, there was this belief that Lai's speech really was a nothing burger. He didn't say anything he hasn't said before. In fact, it was in, you know, I think at least on the US side, I think there was a belief that in some ways it was even more acceptable or not acceptable, but less, less potentially inflammatory from the Beijing perspective than even his inauguration speech in May. And yet they still had to do these exercises. And so it reinforces some folks who say, you know, look, the message really is it doesn't matter what Lai does. The Chinese are going to use, use, find a pretext whenever they wanted to make a point.

Unknown Female Guest (8:58)

Yeah.

Andrew Sharp (8:59)

And, and the point they were making I think really with this exercise is, you know, when you go back to what they said for the exercise they fought, the drills focused on joint sea air combat readiness control, the blockaded control of key ports and areas, strikes on sea and land targets, and the seizure of comprehensive battlefield control so as to test the joint real combat capabilities of the forces of the command. So even though this was a one day drill, even though it wasn't potentially, it didn't include things that could have been seen as more provocative. They're practicing blockading and invading the island.

Andrew Sharp (9:35)

Yeah, yeah, right.

Andrew Sharp (9:36)

And so in some ways, in some ways it's a norm. They're normalizing that whole process. Right. And you know, this was, there was no advanced notice. They announced it. I think I saw it. I think it was 5:30 in the morning on Monday. We're having drills today. The drill started and then they were done that day. And so it's, it's a normalization of their ability to very quickly put all sorts of assets around the island. And you know, they did it. They, if you look at the map of the different drills over since 2000, do the three big drills in 2022, you know, they Basically fully surrounded the island this time. I think they sent coast guard. They had different groups of coast guard ships that went around. You know, we sort of encircled the island. And so, I mean, this is useful for them in the sense that they are practicing what they would need to do in the event of either some sort of a blockade or a quarantine or an invasion. But also they're showing very clearly they can mobilize quite quickly. And so one of the challenges as they continue with these. These drills and the regular sort of flights around Taiwan and ships going around Taiwan, and it's just that it blurs the line between it's a drill or. Or then they can actually very quickly flip into doing something real.

Andrew Sharp (10:45)

Yeah, yeah.

Unknown Female Guest (10:46)

I mean, it's interesting because independent of anything that William Lai said, it's clear.

Andrew Sharp (10:51)

That these drills serve a strategic purpose for the pla.

Unknown Female Guest (10:56)

And it's why I'm reluctant to react to any of these exercises as if they're unremarkable, because as you say, one of the aspects that's ominous is that this behavior just becomes normalized over time. And obviously, Taiwan shouldn't have to tolerate biannual military exercises merely because it, you know, has the audacity to exist as a democracy. But these exercises also give the PLA a chance to rehearse plans for any sort of embargo. And obviously, the further they push the boundaries, the more it increases the risk of an accident and a true escalation. But I also wondered about the aspect you mentioned at the end there, whether years of these exercises will make it more difficult to tell when the PRC really is escalating into an embargo situation.

Andrew Sharp (11:50)

I think. Absolutely. And I think that is certainly part of the goal here.

Andrew Sharp (11:54)

Right.

Andrew Sharp (11:55)

I do think it's likely that, you know, this exercise was a long plan and they were just waiting for the pretext. And who knows, maybe back in May after that, you know, joint sort, 2024 A, maybe they already said, okay, here are the plans for B, and we're going to roll it out. You know, if there's no. Nothing else happens between now and October 10th, the Republic of China National Day, we'll roll it out after the national day that. The 1010 speech. And so. But. But again, it just sort of numbs people. Where back In August of 2022, the drills around Pelosi were a big deal. And I think some markets, investors got a little. The ones this year after the inauguration speech. Now this time it's like, yeah, whatever, no big deal. And people in Taiwan are like, yeah, no big deal.

Unknown Female Guest (12:41)

I was going to say, even people in Taiwan appear sort of inured to the stakes of any of this because.

Andrew Sharp (12:48)

It happens so frequently.

Andrew Sharp (12:49)

You don't want to overreact. You don't want to have your hair on fire. But at the same time, I think it's very dangerous for people to just dismiss it. Yeah, no big deal. They just had to do something. They're practicing to invade the island or blockade it.

Unknown Female Guest (13:01)

No kidding.

Andrew Sharp (13:02)

Yeah, deadly serious. This is what they're practicing. And they're getting better at their practicing. They're involving more, you know, more joint forces. They got the Coast Guard more involved. Now they are really working through what it would take for them to make a very serious. Take a very serious action against Taiwan. And so I think you can't. You can't lose sight of that and just sort of say, oh, yeah, they had to do something. It's no big deal. They got this crazy propaganda. You know, they're just having a tantrum. You can say all that, but you have to remember the reality of what it is they're signaling.

Andrew Sharp (13:34)

Right.

Unknown Female Guest (13:34)

And the idea that they had to do something is itself absurd. And I remembered that back in May, Representative Raja Krishnamoorthy, who we interviewed this summer, he was talking to Semaphore back in May after joint sword 2024 a and said Beijing was having a temper tantrum that could touch off a crisis. And he said, it's provocative behavior, it's senseless, and it's dangerous because it could escalate into unintended catastrophic consequences, and they need to stop. All of these exercises are completely unacceptable and a risk to regional and international stability. So there's not that much more to say than that. But it is important to say that, for the record, in the wake of something like this.

Andrew Sharp (14:18)

All right, and that is the end.

Bill Bishop (14:19)

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Andrew Sharp (14:27)

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Bill Bishop (14:28)

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Andrew Sharp (14:45)

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