Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Episode: (Preview) The Final Biden-Xi Meeting; PRC Messaging to the World; Mass Attacks and the Party Response; Trump Transition Updates
Date: November 20, 2024
Hosts: Andrew Sharp (A) & Bill Bishop (B)

Episode Overview

In this episode preview, Andrew Sharp and Bill Bishop explore recent developments in China's domestic and international landscape. They discuss China's industrial overcapacity, surprising trends in the global tomato market, and—most urgently—the recent spate of violent mass attacks inside China and Beijing’s characteristic response of censorship and increased surveillance. The conversation weaves together economic, social, and political themes, offering insights into how the Chinese Communist Party seeks to maintain social stability amid growing challenges.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Chinese Industrial Overcapacity, Solar Panels & Global Energy Dynamics

• China’s approach to dealing with overcapacity is not just economic—it’s also framed as climate-friendly. Some Chinese thinkers, as Bill paraphrases, see exporting overcapacity (like solar panels) as both good business and climate action.
  • Quote (B, 00:12): “From the Chinese perspective … it’s also effectively a way to deal with, quote unquote, so-called overcapacity and things like solar panels.”
• Risks of global supply chain reliance: Andrew notes that while switching to cleaner energy is laudable, if this means critical supply chains are dominated by China, the world faces new security dilemmas.
  • Quote (A, 00:45): "It also raises security concerns. If the entire world shifts to energy that then is reliant on China for supply chain sourcing..."
• Historical lesson for America: Bill draws parallels between dependence on Chinese supply chains and the US’s historical reliance on Middle Eastern oil, suggesting caution about repeating past mistakes.
  • Quote (B, 01:06): "How much blood and treasure has the US wasted because of addiction to oil and reliance on Saudi Arabia and OPEC? And so why would the US do it again with another country?"
• Nuclear power investments: Both agree the US and China are pursuing nuclear energy, with Bill affirming, “China is way ahead in building nuclear power.” (B, 01:36)

2. Tomatoes, Xinjiang, and Hidden Faces of China’s Export Machine

• China’s dominance in unexpected industries: Andrew shares a Financial Times story about Italy's tomato industry feeling threatened by cheap tomato paste imported from Xinjiang, highlighting the breadth of China’s export presence, even in traditional sectors.
  • Quote (A, 01:39): “China is estimated to account for nearly 23% of this year’s global tomato production…Chinese tomato paste costs half as much as Italian products.”
• Human rights context: He notes that part of the tension around Xinjiang tomatoes revolves around allegations of forced labor and abuses against Uyghurs, adding a thorny ethical dimension to the trade dispute.
• PRC’s competitive export regime: The anecdote underscores how the scale and diversity of Chinese exports now touch every corner of the world, not just high profile sectors like chipmaking or green tech.
  • Quote (A, 02:41): “This trade exists because it was just a reminder to me of how diverse and powerful the PRC export regime has become.”

3. Mass Attacks in China: Censorship, Social Stability, and Surveillance

• Recent tragic events: The hosts somberly catalog a string of mass attacks: a car ramming outside a primary school in Hunan (injuries, no fatalities), a deadly car attack at a Zhuhai sports stadium (35 killed), and a knife attack at an eastern China college (8 dead, 17 wounded).
  • Quote (A, 03:40): “Three heartbreaking incidents in the span of a week.”
• Beijing’s response: Authorities employ swift censorship, restrict information dissemination, and suppress public mourning to prevent the events from fuelling dissatisfaction with the Party.
  • Wall Street Journal coverage is cited: “Authorities have been scrambling to restrict information and suppress public expression of solidarity, a sign of Beijing’s growing concern that these incidents could threaten social stability.” (A, 04:24)
• Lack of transparency: Bill highlights how motives for such attacks often remain obscure due to tight-lipped official statements and swift memory-holing of online evidence.
  • Quote (B, 06:48): “Part of the problem is when these kinds of attacks happen, they get censored pretty quickly. You get very brief statements from the local police... we don't know what the motives are.”
• Expanded surveillance and ‘preventive’ measures: Bill predicts that, in addition to technical censorship, the CCP will likely pursue expanded “preemptive interventions”—identifying and monitoring at-risk individuals via grassroots institutions.
  • He details the role of neighbor committees, the new Central Social Work Department, and informal neighborhood networks (“Chaoyang masses”) as part of China’s bottom-up surveillance strategy, especially revitalized under Xi Jinping.
  • Quote (B, 09:51): "You're going to end up seeing...not just technical surveillance, but actually more human intervention and human surveillance…because these kind of events, they can very quickly erode people's confidence in the party and in the system."
• Erosion of public trust: Both agree the Party’s principal fear is that repeated violent incidents could undermine faith in its ability to ensure order, thereby destabilizing its legitimacy.
  • Quote (A, 10:47): “You can definitely see a pretty clear line to a couple more incidents like this and fomenting popular discontent and lack of faith in the government.”
• Recommended reading: Bill suggests “Sentinel State,” a book by Pei Minxin about surveillance and social control in China, for listeners who want to better understand the CCP’s resilience and adaptability.
  • Quote (B, 11:10): “A good book… is ‘The Sentinel State’…on surveillance and the survival of dictatorship in China.”

Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the risks of international energy dependence:
  • “How much blood and treasure has the US wasted because of addiction to oil and reliance on Saudi Arabia and OPEC? And so why would the US do it again with another country?” (B, 01:06)
• On censorship and official information control:
  • “Part of the problem is when these kinds of attacks happen, you get censored pretty quickly. You get very brief statements from the local police… we don’t know what the motive is.” (B, 06:48)
• On China’s evolving system of surveillance:
  • “You're going to end up seeing...not just technical surveillance, but actually more human intervention and human surveillance…because these kind of events, they can very quickly erode people's confidence in the party and in the system.” (B, 09:51)

Important Timestamps

• 00:12-01:41: Discussion of China’s industrial overcapacity and global energy security
• 01:39-03:25: China’s role in the tomato export market and links to Xinjiang
• 03:25-06:48: Overview of recent mass attacks in China and government’s information suppression
• 06:48-11:41: Analysis of the CCP’s expanded surveillance and grassroots social control response

Takeaways

• China’s global economic footprint is expanding in unexpected areas, challenging Western producers not just in high technology but everyday commodities.
• High-profile incidents of social violence pose a unique threat to Beijing’s narrative of stability. The Party’s response leans on established tools of censorship, but increasingly on sophisticated, granular surveillance and intervention.
• The CCP’s resilience is rooted in its adaptability—strengthening and modernizing a “sentinel state” that blends technology with traditional neighborhood oversight networks guided by Xi-era policies.

End of Preview Summary. For the full conversation and deeper dives on US-China relations and political transitions, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the full podcast and newsletters via the links in the show notes.