Sharp China with Bill Bishop

(Preview) What’s at Stake for China in Iran; Canada’s PM in Beijing; Notes on Chips, Apps, and Drones

Date: January 15, 2026
Hosts: Andrew Sharp and Bill Bishop

Episode Overview

In this preview episode, Andrew Sharp and Bill Bishop dissect the latest major US policy announcement from former President Trump: new 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran. They examine what’s at stake for China, the world’s top buyer of Iranian oil and a key player in Trump’s recent trade truce, and explore whether this signals a return to the US-China trade war. The hosts also reflect on the unpredictability of policymaking in Washington and the strategic calculations on both sides as the US looks ahead to midterms and Trump’s planned trip to Beijing.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Surprise Tariff Announcement

• Donald Trump’s Policy: Trump abruptly announced a 25% US tariff on any country doing business with Iran, raising questions about potential impacts on China, the primary buyer of Iranian oil.

  • “Any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% of on any and all business being done with the United States of America.” – Reading from Trump’s post ([00:48])

• Lack of Policy Clarity & Coordination:

  • Bill Bishop highlights that the announcement appears to lack internal coordination:

    “There have been reports that the announcement surprised members of cabinet, including Secretary Treasury Bessant. … This went through a presidential thumb process…dictating to whomever actually writes his truth social posts.” ([02:00], [03:39])

  • The announcement’s scope, implementation, and real-world follow-through remain unclear in the days since.

2. Potential Impact on US-China Trade Truce

• Existing Truce: Trump recently negotiated a trade pause with Xi Jinping, granting the US access to rare earth minerals while China gained tariff relief.
• Stakes of “Stacking” Tariffs: Andrew presses on whether the 25% Iran-linked tariff would be added atop existing China tariffs, which Bill says would surely derail current understanding:

  “If this 25% tariff does get added on top of the existing tariffs on China, I mean that clearly violates the spirit of whatever we want to call the understanding they had in Busan, South Korea.” ([02:31])

• Odds of Actual Implementation: Bill’s assessment:

  “I think the odds are extremely low that they’re going to add that on top of the existing China tariffs because…they want to not upset the deal…the understanding, whatever you want to call it, that they reached.” ([02:55])

3. Political and Economic Calculus in Washington

• Show versus Substance: Both note a pattern of performative policymaking and social media-driven announcements, rather than coherent or well-planned strategy.

  “You’re assuming coherent policymaking. Again, it’s on me.” – Bill ([06:51]) “It doesn’t exist. At least around that.” – Bill ([06:58])

• Domestic Pressures:

  • Administration focuses on economic stability through November and the midterm elections.

    “They are extremely concerned about the midterm elections and they’re undertaking all sorts of policies designed to shore up Republican support before November, shore up the economy.” – Andrew ([05:15])

  • This would argue against risking economic tension with China.

4. China’s Leverage & Iranian Oil

• China’s Position: China buys about 70% of Iran’s oil, and its leverage over rare earths is a crucial bargaining chip.

  “China buys what, 70% or so of the Iran's oil. I mean, it’s not meaningless if China’s not included in that 25%, but it certainly is a lot less meaningful.” – Bill ([06:05]) “It just also shows how effectively scared they are of the leverage that China has around rare earths. And also Trump's desire for a positive, pageantry-filled trip to Beijing in April.” – Bill ([06:18])

• Domestic and Foreign Policy Tensions: The discussion underscores the administration’s competing objectives: tough rhetoric for domestic politics versus a quiet stance to preserve economic and diplomatic stability with China.

5. Uncertainty & Larger Implications

• The decision process shows little consistency, leaving uncertainty for markets and global diplomacy.
• Supreme Court expected to make a ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which could affect the broader US-China trade relationship.

  “There had been some talk that we might get the decision from the Supreme Court about whether or not his tariffs are legal. … That will have a broader impact on the China relationship.” – Bill ([04:24])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US “thumb process” governance:

  “Presidential thumb process. Right. As he was, or dictating to whoever writes his truth social posts.” – Bill Bishop ([03:39])

• On the durability of the truce:

  “Back in November, we wondered how durable the trade truce would be and whether it would survive until Trump’s Beijing trip, let alone a full year as both sides planned.” – Andrew Sharp ([05:15])

• On China’s rare earth leverage:

  “It just also shows how effectively scared they are of the leverage that China has around rare earths.” – Bill Bishop ([06:18])

• On policymaking unpredictability:

  “You’re assuming coherent policymaking. Again, it’s on me.” – Bill Bishop ([06:51])
  “It doesn’t exist. At least around that.” – Bill Bishop ([06:58])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:24–02:00 | Trump’s new tariffs on countries trading with Iran; initial reactions | | 02:00–03:30 | Administration surprise and lack of internal policy process | | 03:30–06:05 | What happens if tariffs stack on existing China tariffs; assessment of odds | | 06:05–07:01 | China’s dominant position, rare earths leverage, and political priorities | | 07:01–07:49 | Reflections on policy incoherence and US-China relationship durability |

Conclusion

This episode provides a timely breakdown of the new US tariff announcement targeting Iran’s trading partners, with a particular focus on China’s vital interests and Washington’s unpredictability. The hosts dissect the regional and domestic stakes, question the seriousness and durability of the policy, and underline how both electoral politics and global economic leverage shape ongoing US-China dynamics.