Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Episode: Questions and Expectations for Trump 2.0; Looming Trade Tensions and PRC Responses; Volatility and Intermediaries; TikTok’s Last Hope?

Date: November 8, 2024
Hosts: Andrew Sharp (A), Bill Bishop (B)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Andrew Sharp and Bill Bishop dive deep into the implications of President Trump's return to the White House, focusing on what "Trump 2.0" could mean for US–China relations. The conversation covers Xi Jinping’s response to Trump’s victory, strategic lessons from the first Trump administration, looming trade tensions, China’s preparedness, volatility in US policymaking, the fate of TikTok, technology security issues, and the future US–China economic and diplomatic landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Xi Jinping's Response to Trump’s Election

[01:10 – 04:45]

• Xi sent a formal congratulatory message to Trump, filled with standard diplomatic language about coexistence and "finding the right way to get along."
• Bishop observes that the Chinese side knows Trump from his previous term, so there may be less need for early-stage relationship building, but expectations are low for any quick reset.

"I think they clearly understand Trump… they have a lot of experiences… They're in a much better position to deal with what Trump and his team would throw at them than they were six or seven or eight years ago." — Bill Bishop [03:35]

2. What’s Changed Since Trump 1.0?

[04:45 – 06:31]

• China has accelerated efforts towards self-sufficiency, partly due to US pressure during Trump's first term and lessons from sanctions on Russia.
• China is now more willing to assert that "things have changed" and less likely to quietly accommodate US bluster or quickly acquiesce to tariff threats.

3. Beijing's Approach to Trump’s Team

[06:40 – 08:00]

• There’s uncertainty in Beijing about who will shape China policy in a new Trump administration.
• The PRC is actively working to identify who has influence, with speculation about possible use of informal "backchannels," such as connections via Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner.

"The Chinese are scrambling now to understand who to deal with." — Bill Bishop [07:45]

4. Revisiting Trump’s First Trade War

[09:26 – 13:19]

• Bishop recaps the origins: Trump’s obsession with the trade deficit led to tariffs and drawn-out negotiations.
• The "Phase One" deal mostly involved Chinese purchase commitments (mainly agricultural goods) that China did not fully meet, citing factors like Covid.
• Structural reforms, which were the real US aim, never materialized.

"It was about a trade deficit. Trump wanted to fix the trade deficit… Ultimately, it was not a successful deal for the US." — Bill Bishop [09:26]

5. Lighthizer’s Worldview and Future Trade Escalations

[13:21 – 15:47]

• Bob Lighthizer, likely to play a prominent role again, sees China’s export-driven industrial policy as "beggar-thy-neighbor."
• Trump has flirted with tariffs up to 60%; Bishop says to take such threats seriously.

"Countries that run consistently large trade surpluses are the protectionists… Others, like the US, are the victims." — Bob Lighthizer quote via Andrew Sharp [13:29]

• Bishop doubts China will return to the previous negotiation style and expects quicker escalation.

6. Continuity and Chaos: Comparing Biden and Trump Approaches

[15:10 – 18:55]

• The Biden administration continued and intensified many Trump-era trade policies, but with more structure and allied consultation.
• Trump-era China policy was erratic and driven heavily by whoever last spoke to the President—possibly to return in Trump 2.0.

"A lot of it was policy by tweet… that is one of those questions where we just don’t know." — Bill Bishop [17:12]

7. “Mini-Kissingers”: Outside Influencers and Potential Moderators

[18:55 – 20:43]

• Elon Musk may emerge as an important channel for Beijing due to Tesla’s interests.
• Other “mini-Kissingers” (John Thornton, Steve Schwarzman) could also become informal intermediaries shaping policy—though Bishop is skeptical of any newfound discipline in a second Trump administration.

"The Chinese will end up with a bunch of mini Kissingers. Musk will be top of the list." — Bill Bishop [20:01]

8. China’s Toolkit and Appetite for Escalation

[22:39 – 28:16]

• China now has more legal and economic tools: export controls, entity lists, potential penalties on US companies operating in areas with Chinese competitors, and threats to devalue the yuan.
• Bishop is skeptical of extreme yuan devaluation, noting it would be highly destabilizing domestically and for emerging markets.

"That would be very destabilizing both domestically… I think that’s more a bluster from the Chinese side." — Bill Bishop [24:11]

• Export controls, such as those against critical minerals or specific companies (e.g., Skydio), are seen as more probable tools.

9. The Risk of Volatility and the “Crazy Ivan” Theory

[33:20 – 34:44]

• Trump claims his unpredictability is a strategic asset vs. Xi on Taiwan; Bishop doubts this tactic will have much effect, especially on core interests like Taiwan.

"You do it a few too many times and people just kind of get like, okay, crazy Ivan, move on." — Bill Bishop [33:52]

• China has spent years hardening economically for this very scenario.

10. Opportunities and Risks for Beijing

[36:32 – 41:41]

• While China doesn’t want to reignite trade wars, there’s optimism in Beijing that Trump could fracture US-led coalitions, weaken US alliances, and give China a narrative edge in global south and multilateral institutions.
• If a new "China Initiative" (targeting Chinese students/scholars for tech transfer concerns) is revived, it could accelerate brain drain back to China, fueling Beijing’s ambition as a global science/technology hub.

11. TikTok’s Uncertain Fate Under Trump

[44:00 – 48:23]

• Trump or his Attorney General could opt not to enforce the TikTok divestment ban, especially given pressure from donors like Jeff Yass and possibly Elon Musk.
• The legal case continues, with a forthcoming D.C. Circuit ruling and Supreme Court possibility.

"Tick Tock is an area where maybe there’ll be a deal." — Bill Bishop [45:30]

12. Chinese Hacking and US Cybersecurity

[48:23 – 53:45]

• Recent revelations confirm a severe breach by China-backed hackers into US telecom networks, giving them access to call records and location data of Americans—including political figures.
• Bishop expects this could provoke a US retaliation, possibly by the outgoing Biden Administration or a future Trump administration.

"Any capable foreign intelligence service would love to be able to access phones around politicians in any country… At some point you go too far and you basically have to push back." — Bill Bishop [51:40]

13. Retrospective on Biden Policy: Restraint vs. Results

[54:03 – 61:27]

• Sharp critiques the Biden administration’s reluctance to seriously escalate against China across multiple domains (Taiwan, Ukraine/Russia policy, chip sanctions, fentanyl crisis), possibly to avoid destabilizing the relationship.
• Bishop counters that the Biden team would disagree with this characterization, and that China’s posture has become more resistant to pressure regardless.

"China is a rising superpower that is increasingly unwilling to be lectured to and sees the US as… still powerful, but not as powerful as it thinks it is." — Bill Bishop [60:50]

14. The Myth of Imminent Collapse or Supremacy

[62:50 – 63:31]

• Despite economic headwinds, China is not collapsing, nor is it taking over the world. Bishop encourages nuance and skepticism toward both extremes.

"The crash or boom, China’s taking over the world or China’s collapsing, has historically just been a load of hooey." — Bill Bishop [63:31]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "It was about a trade deficit. Trump wanted to fix the trade deficit… Ultimately, it was not a successful deal for the US."
  — Bill Bishop [09:26]

• "The Chinese are scrambling now to understand who to deal with."
  — Bill Bishop [07:45]

• "The Chinese will end up with a bunch of mini Kissingers. Musk will be top of the list."
  — Bill Bishop [20:01]

• "That would be very destabilizing both domestically… I think that’s more a bluster from the Chinese side."
  — Bill Bishop on the yuan devaluation threat [24:11]

• "A lot of it was policy by tweet… that is one of those questions where we just don’t know."
  — Bill Bishop [17:12]

• "You do it a few too many times and people just kind of get like, okay, crazy Ivan, move on."
  — Bill Bishop, on Trump’s volatility as a strategic asset [33:52]

• "China is a rising superpower that is increasingly unwilling to be lectured to and sees the US as… still powerful, but not as powerful as it thinks it is."
  — Bill Bishop [60:50]

• "The crash or boom, China’s taking over the world or China’s collapsing, has historically just been a load of hooey."
  — Bill Bishop [63:31]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00 – 01:10 — Opening, Election recap, framing of Trump’s return
• 01:10 – 04:45 — Xi’s response and congratulatory message to Trump
• 04:45 – 06:31 — Changes in China’s approach since Trump 1.0
• 06:40 – 08:00 — Beijing’s search for Trump intermediaries
• 09:26 – 13:19 — Recap of Trump 1.0 trade war, “Phase One” deal, and Lighthizer’s stance
• 15:10 – 18:55 — Biden vs. Trump approaches, structural differences
• 20:01 – 20:43 — Rise of "mini-Kissingers," Musk and informal channels
• 22:39 – 28:16 — China’s retaliatory toolkit, entity lists, and yuan devaluation discussion
• 33:20 – 34:44 — Trump’s volatility as an asset (the “crazy Ivan” discussion)
• 36:32 – 41:41 — PRC’s opportunity to exploit Trumpian chaos
• 44:00 – 48:23 — TikTok’s fate, political donor influence
• 48:23 – 53:45 — Chinese cyber-espionage revelations and possible US reactions
• 54:03 – 61:27 — Retrospective critique of Biden’s restraint and China strategy
• 62:50 – 63:31 — Debunking the “China imminent collapse” or “taking over” narratives

Conclusion

This dense, fast-moving episode outlines expectations and uncertainties surrounding US–China policy as Trump returns to office. The hosts underscore both the continuity and unpredictability in US approaches, China’s evolving resilience and assertiveness, and the potential global consequences of renewed volatility. Key themes include the interplay of personnel, perception, transactional policy, the role of outsiders, and the growing list of economic, technological, and security flashpoints.

Next episode: Reactions to the NPC Standing Committee announcements and more on the PRC’s domestic scene.