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Sharp or Square
2026 NFL DRAFT Betting Picks & Predictions - Ty Simpson, Jeremiyah Love and more
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This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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Everybody knows Shaq, but off camera, he's
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just a regular guy.
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People never believe me when I say I'm just like them. I take out the trash, do dishes, and I struggle with moderate obstructive sleep apnea, or osa. And a lot of adults with obesity also struggle with moderate to severe osa. You know, those scary breathing interruptions during sleep, the loud snoring, choking and daytime fatigue. I knew I had to talk to my doctor. Don't sleep on the symptoms. Learn more@don'tsleeponosa.com this information is provided by
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This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless,
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the official wireless partner of ufc.
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Power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it.
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You either make the move or you miss the moment.
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Make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless Store. Additional terms apply. See totalwireless.com for details. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
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Chad. I just had possibly the best three day stretch of my hockey fan life.
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Well, I mean, dude, the flyers And I just want to say for those listening, Derek Brown from Fantasy Pros, before you get into it, is joining us as our draft expert and he's coming in right from the top. So if people are listening and hear a non Simon voice jump in, I want them to know it's him. Simon, go ahead with your hockey gloriousness.
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D
Yeah. As people might know, it's the battle for Pennsylvania, which I could spend another 10 minutes on. Is there ever going to be in the history an actual battle for Pennsylvania? It's not even a top 25 state, so I just love when they say that. It's like no one's battling for Pennsylvania. Let's be real here. But anywho, Pittsburgh. I hate him. I hate Malkin, I hate Crosby. And I'm not gonna lie, Chad, this is how much of a coward I am. I think I only bet a hundred bucks on the Flyers because I really, I'm just happy to be invited to the party. Like I. In the playoffs, anything can happen. So I have bet them to win Stanley Cup. I really didn't honestly think we're going to win this series. And you just never know. And Philadelphia right now is a buzz all because of a teenager. I'm sure you've seen the story about this kid. Yeah, you know, Porter, it's, the whole thing is crazy. I really can't believe it. This kid, you know, straight out of College, you know, 18, 19, first two playoff games, scores two goals, I get a goal in each game, both game winning goals. First time I think it's ever happened in NHL history. So, yeah, I, I think even if it doesn't work out for the Flyers, if this is the peak is as good as it gets, honestly, we'll, we'll take it. Like, it's just, I think, you know, as a sports fan, beating a team you consider a rival and you hate, especially again, I've hated Crosby for 20 years. It doesn't get much better. So, yeah, I'm, I'm flying right now, if you can tell.
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Well, I know, I know. Your attitude is always at peak happiness when you're repping the Flyer's hoodie. You only break out the Flyer's hoodie when it's like a truly special time or when there's something really great going on with the Flyers. And you know how I feel about Philly sports fans in general. I have such affinity for them, and when they're happy, I'm happy. It blows up my social feed in every way to talking about these game winning goals, talking about the battle for Pennsylvania, by the way. I would argue every four years, every presidential election is a battle for Pennsylvania. But Derek, do you have anything to say about hockey? You are a southern dude who like, you know, the south has tried to co opt hockey. You don't even care.
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No legit. Like I'm, I'm learning about all of this in real time as y' all are going through it. I'm like taking notes on my notebook over here because I, I could literally spit zero facts about hockey. I don't know what's going on with the cup. I have no clue. I have a. Other other sports. I'm just totally, totally out of the realm on.
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Well, listen, we'll get back to your. We'll get back to your natural habitat. We'll talk about the draft and the big move this week. Again, Derrick Brown, Fantasy Pros football podcast, fellow draft betting enthusiast. Listen to the show. It's on the Volume Podcast network. Listen. The big move this week was Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants all pro defensive tackle being traded from the Giants to the Bengals. The Bengals making a rare big expensive personnel move. They give up the 10th overall pick. The Giants now have the 5th and the 10th Trey Henderson gone. They've also got the Giants the top number 37 pick. I mean look this, this is two bad front offices, I think. And there's no doubt about it with the way the Giants have executed the past few years. There's no doubt about it with the way the Bengals have executed the past few generations. So is there a winner in this trade? Simon, I start with you,
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I guess us, the, the fans so we could, we all can laugh. But yeah, I don't know. It's.
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He's nine.
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These teams do. I feel like they make it all so complicated. It's like there's no one telling the owner or the, the front office. It's like, dude, we have the 10th pick. We can get a guy on a rookie contract for the next five years or get Dexter Lawrence who's might be passes prime.
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29, 29 years old.
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So I, I don't know, Chad. It's like you said, it's just two, two teams. I feel like they've lost their ways. And Cincy, I'll give them credit, they've gone out. I think this is like the fourth or fifth guy they've signed to the defense. Great. Like that's exactly what they need to do. So not going to knock it for trying. Maybe it's a one year fix and that's all this is. But yeah. Bizarre move in a draft that, like, I mean, we're going to talk about, like, you could get Caleb Downs at safety at the 10th pick. Potentially. He. People compare this kid to Ed Reed. Chad.
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Yeah.
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So it's like, can you take a guy like that and you have him locked up, or do you want an aging D tackle? It's. I. I just. I don't know. It's just these teams, I think they get so desperate. So, yeah, I'm happy with Cincinnati. If you're a fan, I'd be happy. But overall, I think it was. Was just. It's a desperate move by a desperate team.
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Derek.
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I'm a little bit higher on it for the Bengals only because where they were sitting at the 10th pick, Downs could have fallen to them. But I think there's also a realm where maybe he doesn't get there, Delane doesn't get there. And honestly, they're kind of in no man's land on the outside looking in. We're top of the board. Like. Like difference maker. Players all go in front of them and they're staring at it like, okay, well, what do we do?
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And the.
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I think the other thing about the Bengals is that this is honestly a team that says, okay, we're going to take a proven commodity. And where Lawrence is at in his career and paying him that much money is very debatable. But we. I also think it's kind of a smart move to say, look, we've kind of sucked at drafting the last few years. We're probably going to screw this pickup, so let's just trade for Lawrence. And given the money that we never wanted to give Trey Hendrickson, that'll work out, right?
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It's so funny. It's so funny. Like, there's outside of Cincinnati and maybe inside Cincinnati, too. Like, there's such an air of defeatism. And we've talked about this on the show. It feels like there are so many historical patterns. Past is prologue, Right? And there are so many historical patterns you could look at for the way front offices operate in the draft and way certain front offices operate when it comes to personnel. Generally, they make the same mistakes with the same kind of players in the same kind of moves and the same kind of contracts at the same point in a player's career. Whatever the case, every single year and every single fan feels like they know exactly how it's going to turn out. And I feel like the percentages are higher. It's going to turn out the way the fans think than when the people in Charge actually think to that point. Simon. Derek, I know you've always been a big fan of the show, so you've heard this, and so I apologize that it's got to be repeated, but last year, the Bengals picked Shemar Stewart from Texas A&M 17 overall. It's still early, but he appears to be a total flop. Producer Matt Mitchell went back and found two clips. Simon, I don't know if you remember. This one is me trashing Stewart the morning of last year's draft, and then another from week 11 with both of us trashing him. The original anti Shemar Stewart podcast. Matt Mitchell, run it. Shemar Stewart, he tested as the best athlete at the combine. He's either Mike Mamula or people are grading him as anything from Javon Curse to Miles Garrett. But the guy didn't do anything in college. And the response you get is, well, it wasn't a scheme, it wasn't a system that was conducive to him doing anything. If the guy is that good of an athlete in college football, you don't make like a guy like that a fucking compliment on the defensive line. You make him the focal point of the defensive line. This makes no sense to me. Matt Mitchell, run it.
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I mean, we haven't really beat him up, Stuart, but we. We bullied that guy coming the season. He had one good week one, and he has been nothing since.
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Every single week, someone is finding a video of him doing something where he just doesn't know what he's doing.
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He doesn't know he's doing.
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Horrible pick, classic Bengals pick. We said all like, like, as I
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told you right now, who gets four sacks in college before the season?
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An NFL scout said to me, there's nobody in college who's game planning to keep your best player out of the action. If he's not getting plays, it's not because he's a freak athlete who they just can't figure out how to use. It's because he doesn't know how to play football. Listen, I think we're running that back and giving ourselves such congratulations because we rarely get it right. And so in anything, whether it's the picks of the actual players or the picks on the games themselves. So I just wanted Derek to hear that, really. I wanted him to recognize that he's on a show with real football experts.
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That was fantastic. I think we could have gone further down the rabbit hole by just trashing all their linebacker picks because those were equally as bad. But, you know, again, back to the Bengals. Can't Draft all right, quick word from
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Hard Rock and then we're coming back to get serious about some draft betting. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bat Florida's sports book. It's NBA playoff time where the lights are brighter, the pressure is higher, and every possession can change a series. And on Hard Rock Bet, every night is your shot to score a major bucket with win or go home energy on the hardwood. I love building same game parlays. However you draw it up. Hard Rock Bet gives you tons of ways to stack your picks into a same game parlay built for the playoffs. If you're ever late for tip off, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all game long from the first bucket to the final buzzer. Sign up today and double your winnings on your first 10 bets. Maximum $50. That's right, double your winnings on your first 10 bets. So if you would have won 100 bucks on your bet, now it's 200. The welcome offer is just the beginning. Hard Rock Bet has new promos daily, so open up the app right now to see what promo you've got today, download the Hard Rock Bet app and let's get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833, playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. In Ohio, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee or Virginia.
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Everybody knows Shaq, but off camera, he's
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just a regular guy.
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People never believe me when I say I'm just like them. I take out the trash, do dishes and I struggle with moderate obstructive sleep apnea or osa. And a lot of adults with obesity also struggle with moderate to severe osa. And you know, those scary breathing interruptions during sleep, the loud snoring, choking and daytime fatigue. I knew I had to talk to my doctor. Don't sleep on the symptoms. Learn more at don't sleep on osa.com
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Mommy's buying a car.
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Kyle.
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Again?
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Really?
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Autotrader?
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Buy your car online?
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Really?
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Harmony I listen last week we discussed draft market on Ty Simpson, looking at what team will draft him. In addition to Simpson, it looks like we can find exact team markets on Jeremiah Love. Now Kenyan Sadiq from Oregon, Carson Beck, the guy who lost the national championship game to Fernando Derek. Give me a take. Give me a take on all three of those players. Was there value on anybody to go anywhere?
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I think the only one that stands out to me because if you're looking at Jeremiah Love, I think he goes inside the top five which team it is. Have at it man. Like right now it's all steam to the Titans. I'm not going to pretend like I know which team is going to take him right now. Carson, Beck, you can spray the board, man. Like I, I just, I don't want any part of that market. But Kenyan Sadiq, I think definitely the two big ones, at least that I've heard kind of connected to him. I think the Buccaneers make some sense that I mean they're really the top three favorites. Buccaneers, Panthers and Ravens. And the prices you're getting on all them like +300 to +425. You want to go half unit bets on those and spray the board I totally get. But outside of that it's, it's a lot of these positional landing spot markets have either been juiced or like there's a lot of just so uncertainty with this class and where guys land. So I don't want to go heavy on any of these guys.
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Simon.
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Yeah, it's tough. Like we talk about these bad organizations. The reason they're at the top of these drafts is, is, is love just not an idiotic pick. I don't care how good he is. None of these teams at the top of the draft are a running back away and you draft these guys because it's a four to five year window. So it's, I get it. Arizona, apparently they're all these people in Meteor saying Arizona's gonna take love. Now they're. Or they're going to try to trade down. If they, if they can't trade down, they're going to take Love at three which is just mind blowing. Tennessee Salah trying to set the tone and take a guy he really likes and love like again, he's a great weapon but these, both those teams have such major holes and it's just, it just doesn't make sense. So yeah, I'm going to follow the media's tone here and it sounds like what Derek said, it's true. Like he's not going to make out of top five. Like if he doesn't go at Arizona he's going to, you know, Tennessee here and I've even heard crazy stories of different teams trading up to get them. Like it's, it's like known out there. All these different teams want him. Like it's just I, I've seen the town. There's no doubt this kid is incredibly talented. It's just we have the history, we have the data. All these teams that take these running backs, it just never works out like Saquon worked out for the Eagles. It didn't work out for the Giants and it's just, that's the tough part. It's like you're, you're not a form team. You're taking these incredible running backs and it doesn't really do much. So. Yeah. The love storyline though to me is really fun and exciting because he's graded as number one guy in this draft to a lot of people. So if it really is Arizona trading out or Tennessee having to move up just a spot to get him at pick three, it doesn't sound like that's a big deal, but that's gonna have a ripple effect to this entire draft. So yeah, it's, it's pretty interesting that he's now minus money at some books to be a top five pick. Chad. So it sounds like it's, it's pretty, pretty locked in at this point that he's going to be taken there pretty high.
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Here's a theory. Let me get your take on both of you. Let me get your take on this. Saquon Barkley did not work out of the Giants and there were a lot of extenuating circumstances. One inconsistent quarterback, not great coaching, terrible front office management, terrible personnel. He was injured. There were moments where you could see the talent. He did have really good years there when he wasn't sort of stuck in the in between. He worked out in Philly because he had a much better team around him, much better quarterback, much better personnel, exact right scheme for him at the exact right time to win a Super Bowl. But also the NFL changed, right? And the NFL became much more even during Saquon's window with the Giants much more focused on stopping the pass, which meant that there were fewer people at the line of scrimmage defensively. So by the time he gets to the Eagles, the way NFL defenses are playing has changed. To me, it could just be the Cardinals, the Titans seeing how the defenses have changed and getting an opportunity to get a game breaking player while the window for how those defenses has changed before it turns back to everybody's now getting running backs and starting to stack the box again. Derek, I feel like I'm, you know, Jack Germain. I don't know. SNL skit Agree or disagree.
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I agree with that and I, I'm actually okay, more than a lot of others of taking a running back that high considering this constitution of the NFL, but also the talent of Jeremiah Love. And you just look at this draft class, you could poke holes in basically every single prospect outside of what Love, Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs outside Of those guys. It's like you like David Bailey. Okay, well, you don't like run defense very much. Do you like Arvel Reese? What is he? Is he an edge? Is he a linebacker? What is he? Does he not pan out as being a hybrid? If he's not Micah Parsons? You're happy taking him in the top five with Jeremiah Love. Like, I understand all the reasons not to take a running back that high, but the other part about this is we fast forward four years from now and he's a top three back in the NFL. Nobody's going to care about it,
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Simon.
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I will. Still, it still would be a stupid pick. It's like if you have 10 guys in the box because you don't have a quarterback that can push the ball downfield, it's, what are you going to do? Like, again, it's all about, what's he worth to the team long term? Like, I agree. Could he be great for five years in Tennessee? Sure. But if you're telling me I could get a potentially hall of Fame safety and Caleb Downs and he could be great for the next 12 years, the math just ain't computing. It's like, this is why, again, great teams don't go through every team that's won a Super bowl the last 20 years. I would love to know how many of them took a running back in the top 10. I would say zero. And that's, again, I'm just guessing here, but, like, the only, only teams I could ever think of that would ever do something like this, they do it in free agency. Right? Like Baltimore Ravens, they went out and got Derek Henry in free agency.
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Like where the Chiefs just got Kenneth Walker in free agency. Yeah.
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So I don't disagree. Like, to me, love is number one on my board too. The guy is a freak. It's the stuff he can do with his body build and his power and his speed. I get it. But it's just like, my God. Arizona, Tennessee, these teams can't help themselves. They just keep. They keep treading water. But yeah, like, we're spending a lot of time here on the running back. I just, I think it's one of the more interesting pieces of this draft because when it first came out, Mox, I think he was at like 10.
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Yeah.
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Chiefs. Now he's worked his way to three, four.
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That's so true.
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D
Love it. Love it for him. Just because I think it's what Derek's talking about. These teams are looking at this draft board and they're like, who's a legit game changer in this whole draft. There might only be four or five of them. He's number one for sure.
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A
Matt Mitchell, if you're still listening, I don't even know if you get a chance, can you Wikipedia the past 20 Super bowl winners and if you know off the top of your head, if anybody drafted a running back in the top five of the top 10, you know, just text me or something. Do what you got to do. Just produce. Okay. Hey, Derek, Derek, I looked at you, you tweeted out this week your Dynasty draft rookie rankings. And I do think that's going to happen and people are going to be really interested, but it's germane to the conversation. Jeremiah Love was number one for you. So explain your logic there, how that extrapolates into the future. You also had Fernando number two, I think Carnell Tate three, Casey Concepcion four and Denzel Boston five.
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E
Yeah, I mean Love's the best player in this draft, arguably. You look at the talent, I mean, again I've, I think I've mentioned it on here. I think he could be everything that people wanted Reggie Bush to be. Whether talking about past game talent, the ability to break off explosives, he is going to be a receiving weapon from day one and change in offense provided if he gets the blocking. And we're talking about the, you know, the team fits and stuff like that. But outside of that, I mean he's the best player in this class from the skill perspective. But the rest of the guys at the top of the board, I mean, we know we've talked about Fernando on previous episodes and stuff, but I think he's going to be a really freaking good quarterback in the NFL where that talent with floor and ceiling looks like over the next few years is going to depend on what they put around him, how the offensive line in the ecosystem. But marrying him with an offensive minded head coach is absolutely fantastic. And Carnell Tate, man, like, can we just stop all the crap about like he's too slow and stuff and he comes from Ohio State and is he worth the top 10 pick? He's awesome. Like he can beat you at all three levels of the field. I don't care about four or five speed versus four, three speed when he's got route chops to absolutely view you in the dust and he's got body control to win outside of his frame, you know. However, we want to talk about his ceiling and floor, whether he's a high end wide receiver too, depending on, you know, fast forwarding three years away from this or he's an alpha level wide receiver one. And everybody says, well, he's a little bit too small to do that. Really? Okay. Same dimensions as Justin Jefferson. Also drawing parallels to Justin Jefferson here. We all said when Jefferson came out, he wasn't the number one on his college team either. And then everybody was body bagged by Jefferson being a freaking stud. So here for the Carnell Tate love.
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A
All right, listen.
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E
So serious is.
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A
I just want to make sure you're all listening. That's how I transition. Like when I'm having a serious conversation with my family, it's like we're all goofing around. But when it's time to buckle down, when we're lost in the middle of an RV trip and we got to make a decision, Everybody listen. Okay, everybody listen right now. Derek, give us some of your new bets that you've just made this week since the last time we spoke to you.
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E
The first one, I want to get about here because I think it's going to move and might move quickly because last time we talked about a guy and I brought up Casey Concepcion, he was steamed heavily and went from plus money to minus 170 in two days, guys. So I want to give this out at the very top.
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A
But listen, that's. That's the show you, you, you DM'd. And I, I apologize that I, I missed it originally because I was traveling when you sent it last week, showing us how the market on him was moving. It's crazy minds move off of this show, Derek, in case you didn't know that. Now you know.
- [27:55]
E
Now I know. And that's why I want to give out akeem Asador under 25 and a half. You can get it at plus 110, plus 120 at some books. There are too many team fits that need pass rush. Whether you want to talk inside that top 25, whether we want to talk about the jets, the Buccaneers, the Lions, Minnesota, depending on what they do or do not do with Jonathan Garnard, Carolina Panthers and the Dallas Cowboys, just to name a few. So hitting this line, this line feels soft. It feels wrong. It feels like it's too much of the bias of the conversation about him being an older prospect and not about where he can actually go in the first round of the NFL draft. So that, that one I have to give out at the top because much like Casey Concepcion in his draft position, I think Mazador, if it moves, it's going to move very quickly and it's going to get steamed. So definitely want to give that One out first. The next one that I want to hit here is Spencer Fano at +200 to be the first offensive lineman selected. If you look at the top of the draft board, there are a number of teams whether Arizona, if they stick and pick and everybody has mocked them to Francis Malinoa the entire time. But the stuff coming out about his medicals and what we know and what we don't know because we don't. We're not privy to those medicals. Now the media is making a really good conversation about, oh, he's fine, everything's okay. What if Arizona is not sold on that? What if Fano and Maui Noah are at the top of their board and then you want to talk about scheme structure, gap run schemes versus zone and stretch and things like that. Fano is a better fit for maybe what Arizona wants to do. If they don't go love and they do stick and pick a tackle, much less him going to Cleveland. I think there's a number of spots where we could see Fano and at +200. I'm willing to, you know, put a unit down on that as him being the first offensive lineman selected. The other two bets I'll make here real fast are really positional and trying to fit team needs versus where they are in the draft. I've been on this one the entire time. Seattle first position drafted, a defensive lineman or an edge at plus 400. You can get it plus 450. At some books this feels like the Caleb Banks pick and if you wanted to attack it that way, that's fine because I think Kayla Banks, if you want to go team specific picks of Seattle. The other part about with Seattle is one of the things about the strength of their team last year at the super bowl run and looking at contracts for some of these D linemen coming up is the depth of that defensive line. And you look at the rest of their roster, well, they kind of could. They could have gone corner at the first pick. Yeah, but they kind of fixed that. Where else would they go? Their offensive line is set. They're set at quarterback. I don't think that they're going to sit there and take a running back in the first round at their first pick. So taking whether you want to attack this goon specifically for Kayla Banks, I'd much rather give yourself a lot more outs because at that back end you have Kate McDonald, you have a lot of other defensive linemen that can make a lot of sense for Seattle. But give me plus 400. Yeah, love that. If we're going to go up the board here. Kansas City is currently like the betting favorites are for them to go with an offensive lineman. There's also a lot of steam out in the media about that. I don't know if I'm necessarily buying that depending on who I'm talking to on the daily basis. But if you look at the depth chart for Kansas City, there are two definitive holes that they need to clean up in this draft and they could do it at the ninth overall spot because with all this Jordan Tyson love out there, guys, Kansas City has been in that conversation. I know everybody's going to get lost in the sauce with the Giants at 10 now, but he might not make it to 10. Like the Chiefs brought him out for dinner as well. So I don't want that to get missed here. So if you're looking at whether it's wide receiver at plus 320 or them going cornerback and Mansour Delane staring them in the face at plus 300, both of those positions are screaming values to me.
- [31:43]
A
Simon, I want to get to you in a second but both on any new bets you've made. And you know the books have generally been pretty conservative in the markets they're offering this year. Seems like more and more they're just not interested in getting beat on these particular draft bets. So I want to get your thoughts on both of those in a second. New bets and markets not appearing. But Derek, you just talked about Seattle. A lot of stories right now coming out that Seattle might be interested in trading down. They're even okay trading within their division. Does any of that impact your thinking about exactly. Team for certain players with Seattle and what they might have available if they do trade down?
- [32:33]
E
I mean I think like you're looking at that pocket of the draft again, that is a wonderful spot if you're going D line. There's so many players in that, whether it's Peter woods falling down the board, T.J. parker, if they were to go with somebody like more like a Cassius how as well as other guys that I mentioned like McDonald. So even if they do trade back, I still think the target can be D line. Now the question is what team is going to trade up and who are they trading up for? Now I think the easy, low hanging fruit here is whoever decides to maybe come up for Ty Simpson. No, Simon, I'm still not betting Ty Simpson to go in the first round, although I feel like I'm kind of getting baited here. But I'm not. I'm not doing it. But that would be the scenario of one of these teams trading down like Seattle to go into the top of the second round and a team coming up for a quarterback.
- [33:19]
A
Matt Spring is here, and that means warmer weather, longer days, and cocktails on the patio. But after a few stiff drinks, we don't bounce back like we used to. Sometimes we've had to choose between a great night or a great next day. That was before we had Pre alcohol Zebiotics. Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered Probiotic, invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this byproduct. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Matt, did you see Zebiotics out in the wild last week? I did. I have enjoyed Zoobiotics myself for several months now, and I was out with a friend and he, we were in like a, like a booth and he, he turned and drank something, which is like an unusual thing to see somebody do in a bar setting. I said, well, what was that? He goes, I'm just drinking this thing that helps when we're out drinking. I said, is it Zbiotics?
- [34:52]
D
He said, yeah, yeah.
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Have you heard of it?
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I said, yeah, I had one before we came out. So I was already very familiar with
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you know, we don't bounce back like we used to.
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E
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- [37:48]
A
buying a car online on autotrader right now? Really? I can get super specific with dealer
- [37:52]
E
listings and see cars based on my budget.
- [37:55]
A
You can really have it delivered or pick it up. Kid is walking up the slide.
- [37:59]
B
Really Autotrader?
- [38:01]
E
Buy your car online?
- [38:02]
A
Really Simon what? Have you seen any new bets? Are you feeling discouraged by the lack of new opportunities that are being offered?
- [38:13]
D
I'll just start from the top. Remind people you have to pay 10% tax on all your losses so plan accordingly before you make any type of bets if you don't understand that if you bet a thousand one hundred or you win 1,100, you lose a thousand, you have to pay $100 on your losses. People, this is, this is real.
- [38:35]
A
Okay, well, for people who don't know, like Simon's referring to in the big beautiful bill that was passed, there was a provision that gambling losses get taxed at the. Like you basically can't deduct all of your gambling losses. So it used to be if you made eleven hundred dollars but you lost eleven hundred dollars, you only have to or lost a thousand dollars, you only have to pay the tax on the money you won. Now you got to pay the tax on everything. And it's screwing with professional betters in a big way.
- [39:09]
D
Again, 10 on your losses. You can't believe that's a real number. Neither can I. It's. It's insane. So yeah, watching Hard Rocks books, just watch the numbers move. It's again, this is as good as it gets for someone like me who loves football, loves Beno football until the week one schedule lines come out in a cup in a month or two. So yeah, the, you kind of miss certain windows. Like we gave out the over five and a half receivers at plus money that is now minus 170 at heart.
- [39:40]
A
Jesus.
- [39:41]
D
We gave out, I think Derek gave out over seven and a half offensive lineman which was like plus money or minus 110 is now minus 290. Last week I talked about the total quarterback thing. I agree. I don't think Ty Simpson is a first round quarterback that's gonna end up probably unfortunately being other than the receivers. My biggest position, the over one and a half quarterbacks in the first round because it got down to minus 110 at Hard Rock, it's now up to minus 190, minus 170 in most books. So that's another line that just fluctuated because no one, no one really knows. This draft is really tough. I'll be honest. Like, teams are much tighter. We've been saying that though every year teams feels like I've gotten tighter and tighter ever since COVID It's not as many leaking ships as there used to be. And for this year especially, so many teams go different ways because they don't really know how the top of that draft's going to go. So you know, if you're still looking for opportunities here, you can shop around. I think you can still find minus 150 on the over one and a half quarterbacks in the first round. But again, a Lot of that's just based on what we think these teams at the bottom are going to do. Right. Like you just said, Chad just talked about Seattle. That's the perfect opportunity them to flip with Arizona. Right. And it's like there's little moves like that the teams end of this, back end of this draft that could obviously make that drop and Arizona can move up or sleeper team. I've even heard the jets talked a ton about liking Ty Simpson, which is just very on brand for the jets themselves. So yeah, a lot of interesting pieces here and for a draft that overall I think most would agree it doesn't have a lot of juice. Right. It's not a lot of excitement here with this draft. To me it's getting pretty good here, getting closer to the draft. Like there's just a lot of unknown drama and the fact that I know it's lazy but guy like Peter Schrager, a guy like Daniel Jeremiah or a guy like Todd McShay are all saying they more they hear is Ty Simpson being a first round pick that moves the number. Like we said, it went from minus 110 and now it's up to minus 170, minus 190. So I know you got invited to the draft. That's another, another part of it where the, the he's gonna have a camera on him the entire night and we'll see these nervous owners, they eventually get tempted. So yeah, I, I, I can't believe that numbers move this much. It's very telling. If you wake up, if you bet it now and you wake up Thursday morning, it's minus 300 over one and a half quarterbacks. That's the best feeling ever because like you've already won even if your bet doesn't hit you by far got the best of the number. And that's why me and Derek were talking two weeks ago, people you wanted to bet these bets were giving out at those plus numbers because it's just a way to protect yourself. So yeah, for me bets I'm trying to make right now, I, I definitely think if you want to do exacto bets with Ty Simpson, I think it's like plus 200 for him to go to the jets or plus 350 to go to the jets of plus 200 go to Arizona, you can do that. But I'm just going to take the minus 150 or minus 160, play it safe for him just to go in the first round.
- [42:40]
A
Simon, you know there's a lot of conversation about A.J. brown right now. You know the trade rumor that sparked the controversy that is now potentially coming home to Rooster. Do you think you'll see anything in the draft that will indicate to you and confirm for you that AJ Brown has played his last game with the Eagles?
- [43:11]
D
I hope he has in a weird way because I would love to get how each more draft assets and as much as I love AJ I'm excited to see devonte in that next role and I appreciate everything AJ did for the Eagles. I mean, I gave you those stats in four years. He has the most receiving yards in Eagles history and we went to two Super Bowls and won a Super bowl with them. So it's like I got no hard feelings. I know a lot of Eagles fans right now aren't taking it too well. They're kind of airing them out and that's. You always expect that, right? There's always gonna be a couple of bad eggs in the group. But to me, my perfect dream chat is for him not to be traded because so many people would look like such idiots because my God, the victory laps, partaking for something that's not even done yet. So June 1st we'll see if it's the Patriots or if it's a different team that's offering a first round pick for him. That's great. I still think how he's dug in if he doesn't get what he wants. I do think he'd keep him and let it work out because everything I heard last year, again, I'm not going to get into the whole thing about what people reported, but a lot of it was untrue. Like people saying he wanted to be traded last year before the season wasn't true. People saying in week four he wanted to be traded, it just wasn't true. All the guys, Saquon, Barkley, Jalen, hurts. They did not like the offensive corner. They were vocal about it, but professionally they weren't going to the media and airing out that news. But I definitely see a tone shift in Howie this off season when talking about AJ So as much as I hope it's not true that he's gonna be gone June 1, it's. It's most likely is but for this draft, honestly, Chad, I don't think they're going to do anything to really like, I don't think I can't see them reaching a first year. If there's a receiver that how he likes that falls to him at that draft spot, yeah, he'll take them. But I, I've seen like people Saying he's going to trade into the top 10. I just, I can't see how he doing that. He just never is. That type of guy usually trades down rather than trading up. So. Yeah, the drama though, in Philly right now, it's real with the AJ Stuff, like it's, it's non stop. I know national media, obviously Eagles is a hot topic. Colin Cowherd, I'm coming for you. I saw what he said the other day about Jalen. Hurts. I know what he's doing, Chad. He's trying to get me going. But yeah, if, if AJ Goes to in New England, honestly, I would truly wish him nothing but the best. He really, he was so great for the Eagles. I, I can't get over how good he is as a receiver and how great of a player is. He's just, you know, reading the books on the sideline, getting your coach's face. Obviously the diva receiver. He is that guy.
- [45:42]
A
Look, could be Jalen's last season with the Philadelphia Eagles.
- [45:47]
E
We shall see.
- [45:49]
D
No, zero chance. Zero chance of that. But again, and Howie, I trust if Howie wants to move on from him again, who am I to say? It's like he took him when we had Carson Wentz as our starting quarterback after we had won a Super bowl the year two years prior. So it's like I might not see it at the time. And I love Hertz, but Hertz's biggest strength are his legs. At the end of the day, that's. That's been his game changer. Is his strength in his lower body. How does that hold up his ages? I don't know. But if I really hope he's my quarterback until he's at least 32, 33. But whatever how he wants to do Chad, I, I have to agree with it.
- [46:27]
A
All right, guys, we got the draft in like less than 72 hours. I want to thank Derek Brown because Derek has been joining us for like a month and I feel like he endured and he did a great job. He did a really good job. He got the full experience of Sharper Square. You can catch Derek over at Fantasy Pros Football podcast, talking everything about the NFL. He's a mensch. He's just a mensch. Thanks for coming on. Derrick Brown. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download some Spotify Apple Pod wherever you get your pods. Rate Review. Subscribe. Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [47:13]
D
We are eagerly anticipating the start of
- [47:16]
E
what may go down in history as the high watermark draft of the entire
- [47:21]
A
decade of the 90s.
- [47:22]
B
The Indianapolis Colts have been which quarterback
- [47:25]
A
do they go with?
- [47:26]
E
Peyton Manning?
- [47:27]
B
Brian Leap are Mark Malone is out
- [47:28]
E
in Indianapolis for about an hour.
- [47:30]
D
Last night, we discussed the pros and cons of these two guys. First of all, Polian says that he's not enamored necessarily with big, strong guys.
- [47:41]
B
Everybody knows Shaq, but off camera, he's
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A
just a regular guy.
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C
People never believe me when I say I'm just like them. I take out the trash, do dishes, and I struggle with moderate obstructive sleep apnea, or osa. And a lot of adults with obesity also struggle with moderate to severe osa. You know, those scary breathing interruptions during sleep, the loud snoring, choking and daytime fatigue. I knew I had to talk to my doctor. Don't sleep on the symptoms. Learn more@don'tsleeponosa.com this information is provided by
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